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ebola in a war zone is a pretty chilling thought
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Jan 1, 2015 06:05
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Bilirubin posted:ebola in a war zone is a pretty chilling thought Why? It has trouble enough sustaining itself when society has literally broken down as it has in many of the countries in Africa, people getting it who don't have time to get infected before they're killed with a bullet or shrapnel and then left to rot on the street don't spread it very well.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:11
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My Imaginary GF posted:Unconfirmed reports of Ebola in Mosul Holy poo poo, I had a thought about this last night, not exactly a dream but a thought that came as I drifted off. Was wondering if Ebola spread to a conflict zone (Iraq/Syria probably being worst-case scenario), how in the hell would NGO's be able to help out. As far as I'm aware, even the West African epidemic hasn't completely settled down 100% yet. Jesus, I hope that's just a rumor.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:11
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It's been floating around for a few days, entirely based on that one Iraqi news report. It's 99.9% inaccurate. But it would be terrible if it were the case, because ISIS isn't too big into doctors and medicine.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:15
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dinoputz posted:Holy poo poo, I had a thought about this last night, not exactly a dream but a thought that came as I drifted off. Was wondering if Ebola spread to a conflict zone (Iraq/Syria probably being worst-case scenario), how in the hell would NGO's be able to help out. As far as I'm aware, even the West African epidemic hasn't completely settled down 100% yet. Jesus, I hope that's just a rumor. https://mobile.twitter.com/HaertlG/status/550344198730547201 WHO investigating http://www.almaalomah.com/news/7188...1585;&%231590;- MOH denial quote:/.. Lab capacity for EVD only exists in Baghdad for Iraq. Wondering if Ninevah Province had lab capacity to test for non-ebola VHFs such as Dengue, Lassa, or Rift Valley. Unfortunately, not able to find too many doctors in Mosul posting on social media. An outbreak of Ebola in Mosul wouldn't have the same impact as Lassa, Dengue, or CCHF. Potential rule out of CCHF as early reports indicate 3 cases 2 deaths from African recruits to ISIS, whereas Pakistan has had an outbreak of CCHF in the tribal areas ongoing throughout 2014. Would be interesting to find specific symptoms reported. Volkerball posted:It's been floating around for a few days, entirely based on that one Iraqi news report. It's 99.9% inaccurate. But it would be terrible if it were the case, because ISIS isn't too big into doctors and medicine. Yes, well, hasn't ISIS been purging doctors in Mosul throughout this month? I'd imagine that HIV and other STD transmission in ISIL territory is going to be fairly uncontrolled, uncontained, untreated, untested, and will only be discovered in a decade.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:19
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Volkerball posted:It's been floating around for a few days, entirely based on that one Iraqi news report. It's 99.9% inaccurate. But it would be terrible if it were the case, because ISIS isn't too big into doctors and medicine.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:19
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Oracle posted:Unless someone decided to engage in a little clandestine bioweaponry. Tell me you wouldn't put it past the CIA. There are easier diseases to use and the only benefit of Ebola is that it scares white people in America.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:20
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Oracle posted:Unless someone decided to engage in a little clandestine bioweaponry. Tell me you wouldn't put it past the CIA. I would put it past the CIA.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:21
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Oracle posted:Unless someone decided to engage in a little clandestine bioweaponry. Tell me you wouldn't put it past the CIA. No one's ever figured out a way to really weaponize it and honestly I'd expect the CIA to gently caress up and infect their own agents before they got on the secret flight.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:21
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Volkerball posted:I would put it past the CIA. Seriously, why use Ebola? Far more likely that an ISIL recruit had a non-EVD VHF without ISIL protocol for IPC. Do you know if ISIL quarantines all its foreign recruits for any standard period of time?
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Jan 1, 2015 06:23
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Brown Moses posted:In the new year I'm planning to use Bellingcat's Checkdesk as a platform for collaborative verification and helping people learn about the process of verification, so if anyone wants to join and contribute I'll get everyone set up. It's pretty straight forward to use, you basically just add comments as you discover evidence or come across interesting information, and if you really want to get involved you can even create new stories for verification. The idea is because the verification discussion is transparent it should be clear about how conclusions about whether or not something is verified came about, plus the discussions can be embedded into websites easily enough. I'm excited needlessly.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:23
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Oracle posted:Unless someone decided to engage in a little clandestine bioweaponry. Tell me you wouldn't put it past the CIA. Or the  :clancy: outcome of IS experimenting with Ebola in order to weaponize it and inadvertently infecting themselves with it, in which I'll say that this is awesome and I hope that everyone in their wretched organization gets it.Real talk though, considering how the city has been outside of government control and the EVD epidemic in West Africa seems to be contained, it's a pretty big leap for it to get to Mosul unless MIGF's fantasy of Boko Haram getting in on the mix is coming true; even still, Nigeria's outbreak ended months ago.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:24
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My Imaginary GF posted:Yes, well, hasn't ISIS been purging doctors in Mosul throughout this month? I'd imagine that HIV and other STD transmission in ISIL territory is going to be fairly uncontrolled, uncontained, untreated, untested, and will only be discovered in a decade. Think they killed 12 doctors this year or something like that. The recent polio outbreak is all you really need to know about the level of prevention and care going on in the worst affected areas.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:25
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My Imaginary GF posted:Seriously, why use Ebola? Far more likely that an ISIL recruit had a non-EVD VHF without ISIL protocol for IPC. Highly doubtful. Pretty sure it isn't long before they are shuffled into a training camp in close proximity with other dudes. suboptimal posted:Real talk though, considering how the city has been outside of government control and the EVD epidemic in West Africa seems to be contained, it's a pretty big leap for it to get to Mosul unless MIGF's fantasy of Boko Haram getting in on the mix is coming true; even still, Nigeria's outbreak ended months ago. Especially since the outbreaks have been in sub-Saharan/West Africa whereas African ISIS recruits have almost exclusively come from north Africa. No ebola threat in Tunisia.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:28
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suboptimal posted:Real talk though, considering how the city has been outside of government control and the EVD epidemic in West Africa seems to be contained, it's a pretty big leap for it to get to Mosul unless MIGF's fantasy of Boko Haram getting in on the mix is coming true; even still, Nigeria's outbreak ended months ago. The fear isn't that Boko Haram weaponizes an outbreak, its that Boko Haram is incompetent at IPC and an outbreak could establish itself in a population beyond the intervention of public health. Nigeria's EVD outbreak was contained AFAIK, however, Nigeria has had reports of uncontained Lassa and Dengue VHF outbreaks in Boko Haram controlled territory. The threat is that VHFs appear to spread at the community, rather than individual, level and that porous borders allow Boko Haram-administered communities to transmit infection to non-BH administered communities. Dengue or Lassa in ISIL territory is a scarier thought than EVD; however, refusal to mount an educational campaign to coordinate clarification that Mosul has a Lassa or Dengue outbreak, and not EVD outbreak, has benefits of social impact and reduced ISIL recruitment and governance potential.
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Jan 1, 2015 06:33
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Volkerball posted:Especially since the outbreaks have been in sub-Saharan/West Africa whereas African ISIS recruits have almost exclusively come from north Africa. No ebola threat in Tunisia. November: http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/outbreak_bulletin_issue_4_-september_2014.pdf December: http://www.humanitarianresponse.info/system/files/documents/files/WHO_Outbreak_bulletin_%235_%20Dec2014.pdf IUCN Redlist map (for potential animal vectors): http://maps.iucnredlist.org/map.html Likely carriers of VHF would be Sudanese, Somali, or CAR nationals. How is the food situation in ISIL territory? Other potential for introduction of VHF would come from central asian recruits. Near 99.9% that any epidemic in ISIL territory isn't Ebola; cannot rule out introduction of VHF novel to the region with symptoms similar to EVD, albiet with reduced case fatality rate. E: I wonder if individuals in Mosul have been resorting to camel and rat consumption. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 07:40 on Jan 1, 2015 |
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Jan 1, 2015 06:43
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SedanChair posted:It is, it's hard to miss that nose cone. A bunch of countries still use them, and this shows why. Fancy new jets are a waste in this kind of war. Yeah, I've always been interested in military aircraft but most of my now-rusty knowledge was limited to US stuff. When trying to ID that plane I kind of knew where to look, and narrowed it down based largely on the wing/tail profile but that nose cone obviously sealed the deal, like you said. Also it made sense since the Syrians have them, and of course it dropped an unguided bomb so that was even more evidence. It was fun trying to figure it out though, and thanks for the verification! The-Mole posted:God drat, that looks like the first time he's ever been off the internet. Even though we know that's fake, I still am not sure which one of those three I'd put a bullet in first. Nintendo Kid posted:No one's ever figured out a way to really weaponize it and honestly I'd expect the CIA to gently caress up and infect their own agents before they got on the secret flight. Definitely the second part, especially considering trained medical personnel (and the CDC) can't figure out how to handle it and not infect themselves. My Imaginary GF posted:Likely carriers of VHF would be Sudanese, Somali, or CAR nationals. How is the food situation in ISIL territory? Other potential for introduction of VHF would come from central asian recruits. Near 99.9% that any epidemic in ISIL territory isn't Ebola; cannot rule out introduction of VHF novel to the region with symptoms similar to EVD, albiet with reduced case fatality rate. Camel and rat are actually quite delicious, you just gotta ketchup 'em up first.
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Jan 1, 2015 08:00
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A Cairo court has ordered the retrial of three incarcerated Al-Jazeera English journalists in Egypt, but they'll remain in prison pending their not-yet-scheduled trial date: http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/119248/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-court-accepts-appeal-of-AlJazeera-journalist.aspx quote:Egypt's Court of Cassation accepted Thursday an appeal filed against sentences handed down to three jailed Al-Jazeera journalists and ordered a retrial to be scheduled. It's obviously a good thing that they're getting their retrial and hopefully it'll produce an outcome where at least 2 of the 3 will be tried in their own countries (which would pretty obviously result in their acquittal) but this case is still an absolute abortion of justice and should have never gone this far.
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Jan 1, 2015 15:45
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In more Egypt stuff, this is a really good article about Salafism in Alexandria. I lived there in the pre-revolutionary days, and was mostly recently there in March, and this article does a good job of explaining the city's idiosyncratic status as somewhat cosmopolitan yet also the headquarters of the Salafi Dawa.
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Jan 1, 2015 16:27
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Oracle posted:Unless someone decided to engage in a little clandestine bioweaponry. Tell me you wouldn't put it past the CIA. It seems like the easiest way to weaponize ebola would to just have isis recruits travel to america instead of iraq/syria w/ stopovers in liberia on the way. While it certainly sounds a lot less fun than blowing yourself up in a crowded market, it would be much more effective.
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Jan 1, 2015 20:56
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Delta-Wye posted:It seems like the easiest way to weaponize ebola would to just have isis recruits travel to america instead of iraq/syria w/ stopovers in liberia on the way. While it certainly sounds a lot less fun than blowing yourself up in a crowded market, it would be much more effective.
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Jan 1, 2015 21:06
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Delta-Wye posted:It seems like the easiest way to weaponize ebola would to just have isis recruits travel to america instead of iraq/syria w/ stopovers in liberia on the way. While it certainly sounds a lot less fun than blowing yourself up in a crowded market, it would be much more effective. Sure, other than how it would be completely ineffective.
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Jan 1, 2015 21:15
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Nintendo Kid posted:Sure, other than how it would be completely ineffective. You don't think CNN et al wouldn't run with "Is isis smuggling in Ebola?" headlines, fanning the flames of public panic? One or two half assed attempts would be all out would take, I reckon. If it actually sparks off a outbreak, all the better!
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Jan 1, 2015 23:21
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Delta-Wye posted:You don't think CNN et al wouldn't run with "Is isis smuggling in Ebola?" headlines, fanning the flames of public panic? One or two half assed attempts would be all out would take, I reckon. If it actually sparks off a outbreak, all the better! CNN can literally just claim it at any time without it actually happening. In fact, I'm pretty sure multiple news agencies have ran stories about X GROUP IS TOTALLY GONNA EBOLA US ALL over the past 6 months!
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Jan 1, 2015 23:23
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What's the name of that genre of music that ISIS and other groups use when they make their videos? It's kind of airy and really melodic with lots of lyrics? It's an arabic word or words which is why I can't remember it.
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Jan 2, 2015 00:13
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reading posted:What's the name of that genre of music that ISIS and other groups use when they make their videos? It's kind of airy and really melodic with lots of lyrics? It's an arabic word or words which is why I can't remember it. Nasheed.
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Jan 2, 2015 00:16
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Google updated their Google Earth historical imagery for the location the August 21st Sarin attack was launched from with images from August 24th, 3 days after the attack. There's some interesting stuff there, including more evidence all the frontline positions were close enough for the government to launch the attacks (more here). What's been quite handy is finding images of two buildings destroyed at a place called Tohme Checkpoint. Both buildings were destroyed in VBIED attacks, one in June and one in August https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGC4XRYGUh8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCDUCvuHRe0 You can see the buildings are missing in these images, top is August 24th 2013, bottom is February 2013, before they were attacked  If anyone wants to look at the various map data I put together for the area you can open this KMZ file in Google Earth.
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Jan 2, 2015 00:19
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reading posted:What's the name of that genre of music that ISIS and other groups use when they make their videos? It's kind of airy and really melodic with lots of lyrics? It's an arabic word or words which is why I can't remember it. It has lots of lyrics because musical instruments are considered haraam so they use an auto-tuner over a cappella groups 
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Jan 2, 2015 06:16
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Necc0 posted:It has lots of lyrics because musical instruments are considered haraam so they use an auto-tuner over a cappella groups When the gently caress did musical instruments get declared haraam? Or is this another case of IS being beyond crazy even for Al-Qaeda types?
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Jan 2, 2015 08:37
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KiteAuraan posted:When the gently caress did musical instruments get declared haraam? Or is this another case of IS being beyond crazy even for Al-Qaeda types? It's like people believing Jesus forbid taxation.
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Jan 2, 2015 08:42
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KiteAuraan posted:When the gently caress did musical instruments get declared haraam? Or is this another case of IS being beyond crazy even for Al-Qaeda types? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d23TGmzAw3A
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Jan 2, 2015 08:50
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KiteAuraan posted:When the gently caress did musical instruments get declared haraam? Or is this another case of IS being beyond crazy even for Al-Qaeda types? Musical instruments being forbidden is 'normative' position in Sunni law. Of course like mostly everything there is a variety of orthodox stances on the matter.
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Jan 2, 2015 10:40
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Volkerball posted:MothraAttack I'm seeing more and more things popping up talking about ISIS massacres of defectors, deserters, etc. Have you heard anything giving those claims any more credit recently? If it's just a rumor, it's a pervasive one. I think as of now it's basically what you said -- a pervasive rumor. It can't be indendepently confirmed from the outside, but these sorts of allegations have appeared separately from a few different activist sources, so that lends it some credibility. It's not like it's just MEMRI or Iraqi tabloids pumping it out. I'm actually inclined to agree somewhat with Mightypeon -- shocking, I know -- in that ISIS has tremendous momentum as essentially a revolutionary terror state, and it will be prone to internal dischord unless it keeps its poo poo extra tight. This is a function of trust being undermined because of coalition strikes and battlefield losses, as well as the sudden influx of recruits, especially those who might be inept on the frontlines or equivocal when poo poo hits the fan. Rumors have circulated of 100+ being executed for refusing to fight in Raqqa, and there have been reports of several dozen getting shot for trying to flee the Islamic State. Then you have other internal issues: the arrest of Azeri "ghulat" allegedly seeking an internal coup, as well as internecine fighting betweeen Chechen and Arab volunteers in northern Syria that has been reported on and off the past few months. None of this constitutes a significant threat in of itself, but if these sorts of things continue to amplify in the coming year it could present some significant difficulties. Add in to that more localized resistance and deteriorating infrastructure in ISIS-held urban areas and it's not a great outlook. That said, ISIS is generally more resilient than most people give it credit for, and it got this far from a few villages in Anbar in just a few years. Can't understimate them, either.
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Jan 2, 2015 11:01
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The two Italian girls kidnapped in Syria are held by Al Nusra. A video has been released, but I'm phone posting and can't paste it. The Italian government usually pays ransom in these cases.
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Jan 2, 2015 11:55
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Cippalippus posted:The two Italian girls kidnapped in Syria are held by Al Nusra. A video has been released, but I'm phone posting and can't paste it. It's a hell of a situation when you can say 'good news - it's al-Qaeda who kidnapped your daughter'.
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Jan 2, 2015 12:49
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Although I'm not sure why this thread suddenly has a fetish for the idea of the Tuskegee Airmen bombing ISIS. Wait, now that you've typed it out you still don't see the appeal of it?
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Jan 2, 2015 13:07
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Indeed. The Italian public opinion is mixed on the matter, while everyone wishes that they come back safely, the majority also thinks that they had it coming for disregarding their personal safety in such a blatant way. A few are even openly discussing the opportunity of not paying anything at all.
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Jan 2, 2015 13:08
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I'm just curious how these guys manage to find hostages, and how foreigners still remain in syria after three or more years of civil war.
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Jan 2, 2015 14:15
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There's still a handful of foreign aid workers in northern Syria, like this dude who lives in Aleppo, as well as support teams and NGO workers in Antakya, Gaziantep, Reyhanli, etc. who in the past have crossed in (although I think this has mostly stopped). These girls made the mistake of just going straight to Aleppo with some tiny organization and promptly getting kidnapped. Worth noting a few Western journos are still traveling to northern Syria -- most recently Lindsey Snell. Just insane in my opinion.
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Jan 2, 2015 14:24
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Fizzil posted:I'm just curious how these guys manage to find hostages, and how foreigners still remain in syria after three or more years of civil war. Sometimes people believe they should help others.
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Jan 2, 2015 16:03
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