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Most of the Australian surface fleet is based in Sydney which is around 4500 miles from the Taiwan Strait and 3700 from the Spratleys. US 3rd Fleet (San Diego) is 6600 and 7400 miles respectively. 7th Fleet (Yokosuka) is 1300 and 2200.
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Jan 29, 2015 19:14
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Dead Reckoning posted:
I don't know, if China got all uppity towards them both, I could see South-Korea and Japan ending up on the same side of the table. There is no big love between the Koreans and the Chinese as well. I think also USA might have a say in this. In any case, Japan and South-Korea both have good air forces, both of them being one of the few countries on Earth who could afford F15s. Japan has them in pretty decent numbers as well, I think around 200.
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Jan 29, 2015 19:15
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if you think a Korean-Japanese joint operation is a thing that would ever happen in real life.
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Ok, just so we're all on the same page This quote:Australia is further away from China than the west coast of the United States A statement like "many of the relevant areas of Australia are roughly the same distance from part of China as the west coast of the United States" is basically factual. Once we start talking about actual force projection and a hypothetical conflict in the region, the Royal Australian Navy has to be taken into account as much as any other regional navy does and isn't irrelevant due to geography.
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Jan 29, 2015 19:21
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bewbies posted:Most of the Australian surface fleet is based in Sydney which is around 4500 miles from the Taiwan Strait and 3700 from the Spratleys. US 3rd Fleet (San Diego) is 6600 and 7400 miles respectively. 7th Fleet (Yokosuka) is 1300 and 2200. OhYeah posted:I don't know, if China got all uppity towards them both, I could see South-Korea and Japan ending up on the same side of the table. There is no big love between the Koreans and the Chinese as well.
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Jan 29, 2015 19:39
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Dead Reckoning posted:There are some huge obstacles to any sort of joint military action though, not the least of which are a lack of any formal structure for bilateral military cooperation, and Japan's constitutional prohibition on military action outside their sovereign territory. "Sorry Beijing, this is a joint Blue-Water rescue exercise".
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Jan 29, 2015 19:44
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It is tough to imagine a westpac shooting scenario wherein China doesn't seriously target Okinawa and Yokosuka at a minimum. I'm not sure what the Japansese political response to such an action but I'd bet they'd at least consider moving that really impressive fleet out into blue water for some interdiction and support. Their ships don't have a land attack capability (or at least they didn't) so I think that'd fit within their constitution.
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Jan 29, 2015 19:51
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Blistex posted:"Sorry Beijing, this is a joint Blue-Water rescue exercise". Recently Japan's constitution was amended to allow military action outside of sovereign territory - basically so that Japan could participate in joint exercises/other defensive military uses.
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Jan 29, 2015 21:35
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Dead Reckoning posted:There are some huge obstacles to any sort of joint military action though, not the least of which are a lack of any formal structure for bilateral military cooperation, and Japan's constitutional prohibition on military action outside their sovereign territory. Does anyone really think that Japan's constitution will be a stumbling block in containing China when it becomes a serious threat or a source of political/economical/military unblalance in the Pacific region?
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Jan 29, 2015 22:27
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bewbies posted:It is tough to imagine a westpac shooting scenario wherein China doesn't seriously target Okinawa and Yokosuka at a minimum. Yep, exactly. China could easily and reliably reach out and touch a lot of places with conventionally armed ballistic missiles. Now, would it? There's a lot of thinking that says no. I don't think that allows the US to write off the Chinese military as a paper tiger, though. Modern arsenals can do extensive damage to unprepared states very quickly. Even if raw casualty figures aren't high, such attacks could seriously disrupt a city's ability to function while still only striking "military" targets: power plants, communications centers, water treatment, municipal ports and airports, especially dual use airports. Same for dual use industry targets.
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Jan 29, 2015 22:37
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Isn't firing a conventionally armed ballistic missile - or really any ballistic missile - a terrible idea? Is everyone else going to wait for the thing to touchdown before they decide to retaliate?
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Jan 29, 2015 22:55
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FrozenVent posted:Isn't firing a conventionally armed ballistic missile - or really any ballistic missile - a terrible idea? Depending on distance, flight times are very short. Like less than ten minutes short.
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Jan 29, 2015 23:00
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Yeah, doubly so as a verified nuclear power.
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Jan 29, 2015 23:01
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....who mixes their conventional and nuclear missile forces.
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Jan 29, 2015 23:34
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No one is going to nuke China just because they see a bunch of SRBMs get launched at bases in the pacific. to clarify: launching a nuke just because you see SRBMs targeting Pacific assets would be akin to launching a nuke because you see fighters/bombers invading airspace over bases. Their airplanes CAN carry nukes, but you don't just fire off a nuke unless you have brilliantly good intel that they are dropping nukes. Like maybe seeing one of your bases get nuked. But I am not a nuclear launch authority, so ymmv. mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 00:55 on Jan 30, 2015 |
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Jan 29, 2015 23:40
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IIRC launch on warning was pretty quickly dismissed as too dangerous a posture even in the hottest periods of the Cold War.
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Jan 30, 2015 00:14
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Speaking about China, what do you make of this claim? "Designed to detect the fifth-generation stealth fighter, the JY-26 is capable of detecting aircraft from as far away as 500 kilometers. A source from the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation told Want Daily that the JY-26 had once detected a F-22 Raptor fighter in South Korean airspace when deployed to Shandong province in northern China."
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Jan 30, 2015 00:25
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Detecting and giving usable intercept info on it is two wildly different things. It's been known by pretty much every modern-ish military for a while that you can pick them up with certain bands of RADAR, but those bands can't really do much more than say something is out there in a huge chunk of airspace vs. stealth.
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Jan 30, 2015 00:36
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FrozenVent posted:Isn't firing a conventionally armed ballistic missile - or really any ballistic missile - a terrible idea? In the heyday of blasting the poo poo out of Grozny, the Russians used to use SRBMs semi-frequently. The Conventional Trident idea really took the cake, though. Fun fact: The Italians almost had a ballistic missile *cruiser* once back when we liked them more, and evidently considered putting SLBMs on ships as small as frigates. When we decided not to give them the Polarises (Polarisi?), they just built their own, without having warheads for it yet. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_cruiser_Giuseppe_Garibaldi_%281936%29#Recommissioning_as_a_guided_missile_cruiser BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 00:46 on Jan 30, 2015 |
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Jan 30, 2015 00:44
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Cat Mattress posted:Speaking about China, what do you make of this claim? "Designed to detect the fifth-generation stealth fighter, the JY-26 is capable of detecting aircraft from as far away as 500 kilometers. A source from the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation told Want Daily that the JY-26 had once detected a F-22 Raptor fighter in South Korean airspace when deployed to Shandong province in northern China." Other things that can detect F-22s over Korea: Open source reporting, the human eye, ADE 651.
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Jan 30, 2015 01:37
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Koesj posted:IIRC launch on warning was pretty quickly dismissed as too dangerous a posture even in the hottest periods of the Cold War. Given this, what is the expected response if your enemy launches an obvious counter-force strike at you? Presumably it would be easy enough to tell if that's what they were doing, based on the sheer number of launches; has anyone's doctrine on "launch immediately" vs. "wait it out, let the subs and remaining silos respond" even been publicly disclosed?
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Jan 30, 2015 01:44
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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Dead Reckoning posted:I think if the Chinese had a surefire way of reliably detecting F-22s and B-2s, they sure as hell wouldn't tell anyone about it. They're hoping to get export sales in the sort of places where the Defense Minister is the brother of the President for Life. Kim Jong-Un has detected every F-22 that has ever been, and will ever be, and has had that ability since he was a small child.
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Jan 30, 2015 01:45
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Kim Jong Un can ride handlebars without a bike.
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Jan 30, 2015 01:50
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What Taiwan needs is some Israeli ballistic missile defenses.
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Jan 30, 2015 02:06
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Hauldren Collider posted:What Taiwan needs is some Israeli ballistic missile defenses. lol.
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Jan 30, 2015 02:08
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Dead Reckoning posted:ADE 651.  Just want you to know this one didn't go unappreciated.
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Jan 30, 2015 02:08
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PittTheElder posted:Given this, what is the expected response if your enemy launches an obvious counter-force strike at you? Presumably it would be easy enough to tell if that's what they were doing, based on the sheer number of launches; has anyone's doctrine on "launch immediately" vs. "wait it out, let the subs and remaining silos respond" even been publicly disclosed? The central tenet of deterrence is that no one is sure you'll show restraint.
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Jan 30, 2015 03:26
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Sorry if this is a repeat: netflix has a PBS Frontline documentary about North Korea, mainly with footage secretly shot inside NK. It also talks a fair bit about western culture being sent into NK by escapees via burned DVDs, hand-cranked radios, and thumb drives. (Apparently men in NK like action films while women generally like soap operas, go figure.) It also features some incredibly brave NK refugees who have managed to escape, and are dedicating their lives fighting against the NK. Some of the secret footage also features NK citizens freaking the gently caress out against police and military types when they try to get them for minor infractions. Anyway, it makes you thankful that you don't live in NK - and give you a little bit of hope things might get better there. PS> NK woman with the impromptu bus operation: marry me Nebakenezzer fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Jan 30, 2015 |
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Jan 30, 2015 05:16
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Dead Reckoning posted:There are some huge obstacles to any sort of joint military action though, not the least of which are a lack of any formal structure for bilateral military cooperation They just finally signed an agreement to share the most basic intel strictly regarding NK...and even then they're only agreeing to do it through the US, not directly with each other. This would be the same deal that got put on indefinite hold over two years ago at the literal 11th hour because the South Koreans got cold feet because they feared a public outcry...IIRC it was pretty shortly after someone in the Japanese government (again) said something stupidly insensitive about comfort women. It's worth mentioning that the deal as originally conceived back in 2011/2012 was supposed to be much broader (including, among other things, China) but got descoped to strictly NK since that's about the only thing the Japanese and South Korean governments can agree on. So yeah, JSDF - ROK military cooperation isn't going to be happening any time soon, at least not of any significant nature. They might attend the same Flag or RIMPAC or whatever but as far as top-level coordination and planning, not happening. PittTheElder posted:Given this, what is the expected response if your enemy launches an obvious counter-force strike at you? Presumably it would be easy enough to tell if that's what they were doing, based on the sheer number of launches; has anyone's doctrine on "launch immediately" vs. "wait it out, let the subs and remaining silos respond" even been publicly disclosed? The closest you're going to get to that is that some nations have a declared no first use policy. Of course, whether anyone believes that those countries would actually adhere to the policy is a different discussion, and even then all of those countries have not publicly disclosed what their policy in response to an attack would be, mostly because Dead Reckoning posted:The central tenet of deterrence is that no one is sure you'll show restraint. Nebakenezzer posted:Sorry if this is a repeat: netflix has a PBS Frontline documentary about North Korea, mainly with footage secretly shot inside NK. It also talks a fair bit about western culture being sent into NK by escapees via burned DVDs, hand-cranked radios, and thumb drives. (Apparently men in NK like action films while women generally like soap operas, go figure.) It also features some incredibly brave NK refugees who have managed to escape, and are dedicating their lives fighting against the NK. Some of the secret footage also features NK citizens freaking the gently caress out against police and military types when they try to get them for minor infractions. Anyway, it makes you thankful that you don't live in NK - and give you a little bit of hope things might get better there. It is a really good piece and everyone should watch it. The bus lady was pretty cool...it really says a lot about how much the govt has lost control outside of Pyongyang that someone felt comfortable openly operating a pay to ride transportation service and then physically assaulted an army officer when he tried to jack her up over it. Especially since the end result was that the army officer slunk away and the lady drove off with a truck full of people. Things aren't going to get better, all of that "positive" stuff like free enterprise and people standing up to the security forces is just a symptom of how much the govt has lost control and/or a symptom of how much it has failed (i.e., tolerating open free enterprise markets because the alternative is people literally starving to death)...a country with a shitload of chemical weapons + a couple nukes, with a notoriously secretive and byzantine power structure, is losing control over a significant portion of the country. That should scare people. There's several ways this ends, but Berlin Wall '89 isn't among them.
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Jan 30, 2015 05:36
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Nebakenezzer posted:PS> NK woman with the impromptu bus operation: marry me She tears a chunk out of that soldier boy's hide that is for drat sure, if it's the same footage I'm thinking of. Dude looked like he was gonna burst out in tears any second.
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Jan 30, 2015 05:40
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North Korea is a huge disaster waiting to happen and I hope China, South Korea, and the US are all ready when it does.
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Jan 30, 2015 05:42
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StandardVC10 posted:North Korea is a huge disaster waiting to happen and I hope China, South Korea, and the US are all ready when it does. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR331.html
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Jan 30, 2015 05:47
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Nebakenezzer posted:Recently Japan's constitution was amended to allow military action outside of sovereign territory - basically so that Japan could participate in joint exercises/other defensive military uses. iyaayas01 posted:There's several ways this ends, but Berlin Wall '89 isn't among them. Dead Reckoning fucked around with this message at 05:50 on Jan 30, 2015 |
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Jan 30, 2015 05:48
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Man, even in perfectly smooth wonderland circumstance integrating NK and SK into something approximating a cohesive country is going to be a hell job. There is such a huge gulf of experience between the two halves despite it basically being only 3 generations of separation. Probably not helped by SK's economy immediately getting tanked under the load of trying to catch up with 60 years of the North being a technological wasteland besides whatever the Russians or Chinese chucked at them every now and again.
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Jan 30, 2015 05:54
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StandardVC10 posted:North Korea is a huge disaster waiting to happen and I hope China, South Korea, and the US are all ready when it does. No no no, you see it's actually Russian territory that was illegally ceded by noted traitor to the motherland Joseph Stalin in 1945. I'm pretty sure there's already at least some business ties between NK and Russia, so Putin annexing them seems like a natural next step.
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Jan 30, 2015 05:57
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iyaayas01 posted:The closest you're going to get to that is that some nations have a declared no first use policy. Of course, whether anyone believes that those countries would actually adhere to the policy is a different discussion, and even then all of those countries have not publicly disclosed what their policy in response to an attack would be, mostly because Well I'm not positing that one wouldn't respond, the question would be whether to respond this second, or to wait 30 minutes. I guess there would be no reason to not have the subs retaliate immediately, since there's unlikely to be nukes flying at them. I'm more curious as to, if the SU had thrown 400 nukes or whatever it is to try and dig out the silos in the Dakotas, is it better to launch immediately and risk having your birds knocked out during ascent (is this even reasonable given the timelines?) or to sit it out, wait an hour for the dust to settle a little, and then launch everything you have back?
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Jan 30, 2015 05:58
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Generation Internet posted:No no no, you see it's actually Russian territory that was illegally ceded by noted traitor to the motherland Joseph Stalin in 1945. I'm pretty sure there's already at least some business ties between NK and Russia, so Putin annexing them seems like a natural next step. Man he doesn't want to gently caress his country up even worse than it already is! That'd just be a recipe for disaster even if the other countries just sat back and let it happen.
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Jan 30, 2015 06:01
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Nebakenezzer posted:Sorry if this is a repeat: netflix has a PBS Frontline documentary about North Korea, mainly with footage secretly shot inside NK. It also talks a fair bit about western culture being sent into NK by escapees via burned DVDs, hand-cranked radios, and thumb drives. (Apparently men in NK like action films while women generally like soap operas, go figure.) It also features some incredibly brave NK refugees who have managed to escape, and are dedicating their lives fighting against the NK. Some of the secret footage also features NK citizens freaking the gently caress out against police and military types when they try to get them for minor infractions. Anyway, it makes you thankful that you don't live in NK - and give you a little bit of hope things might get better there. For those without Netflix, Frontline posts most (all?) of their episodes on their website: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/secret-state-of-north-korea/
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Jan 30, 2015 06:01
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priznat posted:Man he doesn't want to gently caress his country up even worse than it already is! That'd just be a recipe for disaster even if the other countries just sat back and let it happen. North Korea: Least likely country to be invaded because who the gently caress wants to deal with the aftermath. China would probably love to just wash their hands of the entire thing at this point but they have a potential humanitarian disaster on their border they would really prefer not to come flooding north.
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Jan 30, 2015 06:08
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iyaayas01 posted:Things aren't going to get better, all of that "positive" stuff like free enterprise and people standing up to the security forces is just a symptom of how much the govt has lost control and/or a symptom of how much it has failed (i.e., tolerating open free enterprise markets because the alternative is people literally starving to death)...a country with a shitload of chemical weapons + a couple nukes, with a notoriously secretive and byzantine power structure, is losing control over a significant portion of the country. That should scare people. I can certainly appreciate the reasoning - it is from a geopolitical standpoint scary. Still, given the utterly hosed nature of the nork government, anything that gets rid of that government has to be better for the people living in the NK in the long term. Though admittedly the Czech-Slovak split or the Berlin wall coming down type-deal isn't in the cards and this somewhat undercuts my point e: Yes, it's scary Jimmy but you are going to have to learn how to ride that bicycle sometime Nebakenezzer fucked around with this message at 06:14 on Jan 30, 2015 |
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Jan 30, 2015 06:08
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Alaan posted:North Korea: Least likely country to be invaded because who the gently caress wants to deal with the aftermath. China would probably love to just wash their hands of the entire thing at this point but they have a potential humanitarian disaster on their border they would really prefer not to come flooding north. That's not the (only) reason. China doesn't want US or SK troops on its border, so it props up North Korea. Without China, North Korea would have folded by now. I don't buy the excuse of "oh it could hurt the SK economy" as a valid reason to prevent the toppling of the Kim dynasty. That said it is a good explanation for why South Korea's never been all that interested in reunification and perhaps never will be.
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Jan 30, 2015 06:18
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