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kiimo
Jul 24, 2003




There's a scout in there who needs to get a room with WCS.

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WhyteRyce
Dec 30, 2001

kiimo posted:

There's a scout in there who needs to get a room with WCS.

That guy wants to go north-south-east-west with him

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

WCS is very athletic for a 7-footer. For sure. But ask Kentucky fans how many threads were posted over the course of his career titled "What's wrong with WCS?" or "Has anyone seen WCS?" or "Three games now without a WCS appearance." He's just really inconsistent.

remember
Nov 23, 2006

morestuff posted:

The Porzingis stuff does sound like a smokescreen, and it wouldn't make sense for Knicks fans to end up too happy.

The draft's one week away — any guesses who the big risers and fallers are going to be at this point? I think Booker ends up going higher than expected and Winslow dips a bit.

I think WCS and Hezonja should probably rise. I don't think Prozingus goes top 5, I think he's being used by teams as a smokescreen. Mudiay is dropping a bit too much on mocks but he could very well not get picked top 5 either, although I'm high on him.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

jimcunningham posted:

Anyone interested in doing a draft game? Something simple. 3points for correct pick, 2 for being 1 off, 1 for 2 off. Nothing for 3 or more. 3 points for correct trade call both teams, 1 pt for 1 team correct. Something like that. Id be glad to manage if there is interest.

Sure sounds fun.

Probably no point in doing it past the first round since even the GMs are making up names at that point.

pylb
Sep 22, 2010

"The superfluous, a very necessary thing"
I still don't know why Pop didn't get fired in 2013. Couldn't beat the Heat in the finals, made that dreadful Duncan substitution, and Tony Parker was taking over huddles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1oqTs1ry0Q


Rick posted:

Sure sounds fun.

Probably no point in doing it past the first round since even the GMs are making up names at that point.
Hey now I almost got the last pick of the 2nd round right in last year's game (I was off by one spot).

remember
Nov 23, 2006
I think doing it for the lottery is probably about right +- a couple of spots. I'd say cut off at OKC or for comedy the Hawks pick via Nets.

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming
Hezonja sounds like an awesome shithead

quote:

Hezonja was asked earlier this year if he went to go see soccer legend Lionel Messi play for FC Barcelona. He responded: "Let Messi come to see me."

quote:

"Respect? No, I never had respect to anybody on a basketball court," Hezonja told Sportando. "I heard about, ‘If they smell blood, you get eaten.' I'm not like that. I don't care. Whether it's a veteran or a young player standing in front of me I always have the same goal. I want to run over everybody."

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.


He's my odds on favorite to be the rookie who gets in the first serious on-the-court fight.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Sadly the Lakers won't draft him

WhyteRyce
Dec 30, 2001

Divac is apparently really high on him so I eagerly await the first Cousins/Hezonja tag team fight

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009


I love scout 2

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
I told you guys that Croats were all assholes and you didn't listen to me

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

kiimo posted:

WCS is very athletic for a 7-footer. For sure. But ask Kentucky fans how many threads were posted over the course of his career titled "What's wrong with WCS?" or "Has anyone seen WCS?" or "Three games now without a WCS appearance." He's just really inconsistent.

Well yeah because people focus on how many points he scores, which isn't really the point of WCS

EvanTH
Apr 24, 2004

i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

jimcunningham posted:

Anyone interested in doing a draft game? Something simple. 3points for correct pick, 2 for being 1 off, 1 for 2 off. Nothing for 3 or more. 3 points for correct trade call both teams, 1 pt for 1 team correct. Something like that. Id be glad to manage if there is interest.

make a 25 pt Caboclo Clause if you can identify a first round pick who isn't named anywhere on top 100 lists

Dejan Bimble posted:

I told you guys that Croats were all assholes and you didn't listen to me

IMF shills came out of the woodwork to compare your crimes to Slobo

ButtWolf
Dec 30, 2004

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
I made a Mock Draft game if anyone wants in.
I like the Cabocolo Pick.

ragle
Nov 1, 2009

Jota posted:

D'Angelo Russell supposedly was great in his workout with the Sixers. Lot of mock drafts have the Sixers taking Porzingis but beat guys still saying Russell is the pick if he's there which makes me happy.

The recent Dunc'd On Basketball podcast with Mike Schmitz from DraftExpress is really good. Schmitz was relatively down on Russell, saying his shooting% in college was higher than he'd shown in other competitions they track and maybe a mirage.

from his DE profile

quote:

Made 28% of his 3-point attempts in 19 Nike EYBL games


he also said Winslow had a completely busted shot heading into college and suggested his 64.1% FT might be more indicative of future shooting than 41.8% 3PT

ragle fucked around with this message at 02:02 on Jun 19, 2015

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
I am having flashbacks of doing a draft game once and it taking like two hours to score it. Good luck, jim!

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming
Reading a little more about Hezonja and I can already tell that he's going to be one of my favorite players, whether he's great or (possibly better) completely terrible. I just hope coming to America doesn't humble him at all, I want "LeBron James, feh, he is dirt beneath my boots" and the throat-slash gesture

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?
I am super pumped for Croatian Marshall Henderson

pylb
Sep 22, 2010

"The superfluous, a very necessary thing"

morestuff posted:

Reading a little more about Hezonja and I can already tell that he's going to be one of my favorite players, whether he's great or (possibly better) completely terrible. I just hope coming to America doesn't humble him at all, I want "LeBron James, feh, he is dirt beneath my boots" and the throat-slash gesture

Jusuf Nurkic is already pretty good at that.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

MourningView posted:

I am super pumped for Croatian Marshall Henderson

I am for reals sad that Marshall Henderson wasn't good enough for the NBA. I don't and have never meant that ironically or in jest. I absolutely love watching him set fire to southern baptists' angry foreheads. So many "that boy has no respect!" comments that I'm sad I missed hearing in person. Troll on you crazy diamond.

Redgrendel2001
Sep 1, 2006

you literally think a person saying their NBA team of choice being better than the fucking 76ers is a 'schtick'

a literal thing you think.

MourningView posted:

I am super pumped for Croatian Marshall Henderson

One of these things is not like the other.

BlackJosh
Sep 25, 2007

kiimo posted:

I am for reals sad that Marshall Henderson wasn't good enough for the NBA. I don't and have never meant that ironically or in jest. I absolutely love watching him set fire to southern baptists' angry foreheads. So many "that boy has no respect!" comments that I'm sad I missed hearing in person. Troll on you crazy diamond.

Marshall Henderson was a national treasure. We need a dude like that in the NBA.

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

Redgrendel2001 posted:

One of these things is not like the other.


Like in the sense that Hezonja is way better? Yeah no poo poo.

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming
This year's Tiers article from Chad Ford is up. He polls GMs/scouts and groups roughly equivalent prospects. Towns is the only guy people are sold on as a potential elite/top-10 NBA player.

EvanTH
Apr 24, 2004

i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd

morestuff posted:

This year's Tiers article from Chad Ford is up. He polls GMs/scouts and groups roughly equivalent prospects. Towns is the only guy people are sold on as a potential elite/top-10 NBA player.

can you C&P the thing for non-insider-havers? I kinda wanna read them tiers.

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming

EvanTH posted:

can you C&P the thing for non-insider-havers? I kinda wanna read them tiers.

Consensus is a word that should be used carefully when you talk about the NBA draft.

Occasionally a prospect emerges who is so clearly better than anyone else in the draft (see Anthony Davis in 2012, Blake Griffin in 2009, LeBron James in 2003, Yao Ming in 2002, Tim Duncan in 1997, Shaquille O'Neal in 1992), but more often, if you put 10 GMs into a room and ask them who the best player in the draft is, you'll get three or four answers.

The debates get louder and more diverse as you move further down the draft.

This year is no exception. With less than a week to go before the draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves are debating whom to take at No. 1 -- Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor or D'Angelo Russell. If the Wolves, who employ dozens of full-time pros who work at this all year, can't figure it out, how can we create a consensus ranking?

We want to believe that there's a Big Board in the sky that knows all. It doesn't exist. Reasonable minds can differ on prospects, and as much as we all love ranking players 1-100, it's not the best or most preferred way to do it.

This year, five players have a case to be picked No. 1 -- Towns, Okafor, Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis.

Whom do you choose to draft? And how?

NBA teams watch prospects play thousands of hours of games. They go to practice and camps. Hire guys from MIT to create statistical solutions. Work out players, give them psychological tests, do background checks and conduct personal interviews. And, still, there is very little consensus.

Factor in the debate between taking the best player available and which player a team needs most, and the situation further muddies itself.

To make sense of all this, the past few years I've chronicled a draft ranking system called the tier system, which several teams employ.

By this method, teams group players into tiers based on overall talent, then rank the players in each tier based on team need. A more detailed explanation of how the system works can be found here.

So how do things break down? After I talked to several GMs and scouts whose teams employ this system, here is how the tiers look this year.

Players are listed alphabetically in each tier.



Tier 1

Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky


Note: Ahead of last year's draft, we had three players in this category: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker. This category usually is reserved for guys who are sure-fire All-Stars/franchise players. Just three other players since we started this column in 2009 -- Griffin, John Wall and Davis -- have been ranked in this slot. You have to be elite to get here.

This year was one of the toughest yet. Five players were nominated for Tier 1 by various teams. However, only one player was consistently mentioned by all of them: Towns. While some teams don't see major separation between him and the players in Tier 2, others feel there's a gap and he's the only one in the draft who has the potential to be a franchise, top 10 player in the league guy.


Tier 2

Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Congo

Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke

Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Latvia

D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State

Note: This is a very strong Tier 2. Mudiay, Okafor, Porzinigs and Russell all have a claim to the No. 1 pick. In fact, Okafor was the favorite to be the No. 1 pick since July and several teams put Russell on par with Towns. Both received votes for Tier 1, but not enough to move them up.

Tier 2 is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player on the list has a weakness that some teams feel will keep them from being a superstar. For Mudiay it's shooting. For Okafor and Russell, it's athleticism and defense. For Porzingis, it's a thin body and questionable position. Nevertheless, all four have strengths that should propel them to an All-Star game at some point in their careers.

One fun note: Last year we did the column before Porzingis had withdrawn from the draft. He was regarded as a Tier 4 prospect last year. So he's jumped up two tiers.


Tier 3

Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Kentucky

Mario Hezonja, G/F, Croatia

Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke

Note: This is a very strong Tier 3, as well. Both Hezonja and Winslow received Tier 2 votes from teams. However, both fell just short of the cut.

This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers. All three of these players should be gone in the Top 10. Hezonja, especially, has some star appeal, as well. Having eight players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft, but not quite as strong as the 2014 draft that had 12 players in the first three tiers.


Tier 4

Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky

Sam Dekker, F, Wisconsin

Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame

Stanley Johnson, G/F, Arizona

Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin

Kevon Looney, F, UCLA

Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky

Kelly Oubre, G/F, Kansas

Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State

Bobby Portis, PF, Arkanas

Myles Turner, F/C, Texas

Note: Tier 4 typically is late-lottery to mid first-round selections in a normal draft -- selections 10-20. This year that tier is roughly 9-19 on our Big Board. Lots of talented players in this tier who project to be starters or high-level rotation players.

Here, even the consensus in tiers starts to break down.

Guys really are all over the place. Booker, Kaminsky, Lyles and Turner got a small number of votes for Tier 3. Payne got a Tier 3 vote, as well. But the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Oubre, Grant and Looney had some Tier 5 votes, but the majority of their votes were in Tier 4.


Tier 5

Justin Anderson, SG, Virginia

Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, Arizona

R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State

Tyus Jones, PG, Duke

Terry Rozier, G, Louisville

Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV

Delon Wright, PG, Utah

Note: This next group is one of the smaller Tier 5s we've had and shows the drop off in talent as we get into the 20s. By pick 25 or so, teams are really struggling to come up with players that they think can make the league.

This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players. Players who are unlikely to start for good teams, but could become solid role players off the bench. A few teams had Hollis-Jefferson, Hunter, Jones and Vaughn in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut. Rozier, Harrell and Wright got a few Tier 6 votes.


Tier 6

Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas

Anthony Brown, SG, Stanford

Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse

Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky

Olivier Hanlan, G, Boston College

Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Spain

Jarell Martin, PF,LSU

Chris McCullough, F, Syracuse

Cedi Osman, F, Turkey

Robert Upshaw, C, Washington

Christian Wood, PF, UNLV

Joseph Young, G, Oregon

Note: This tier has the players that at least one team told me they had ranked in their Top 30. A few - Brown, Martin and McCullough - got Tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks. This list is typically quite a bit longer. Again, the talent of the draft drops off a cliff as we get into these tiers. As strong as it is at the top, it's much weaker at the bottom.

Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But the teams that run it have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool of gauging which players a team should draft.

EvanTH
Apr 24, 2004

i like to express my inner pain by being really boring on the phone
or just when i'm kickin it
that's me though
i'm kind of oddddddd
Awesome thank you

MourningView
Sep 2, 2006


Is this Heaven?

morestuff posted:

Towns is the only guy people are sold on as a potential elite/top-10 NBA player.

He is the only guy EVERYONE is sold on. Lots of people had some combination of Okafor/Russell/Mudiay/Porzingas up there too.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
Lakers are having an additional private workout for Okafor today. Private because it's expected to be competitive.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Who is healthy enough on the Lakers to give him competition though? They'll need to borrow some Clippers.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

kiimo posted:

Who is healthy enough on the Lakers to give him competition though? They'll need to borrow some Clippers.

They secretly brought in rondo to play connect 4

aBagorn
Aug 26, 2004

kiimo posted:

Who is healthy enough on the Lakers to give him competition though? They'll need to borrow some Clippers.

He's playing BattleshipTM against Death

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

Rick posted:

Lakers are having an additional private workout for Okafor today. Private because it's expected to be competitive.

Are they going to ask him to play defense?

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

euphronius posted:

Are they going to ask him to play defense?

They expect it to be competitive so probably not

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


Rick posted:

Lakers are having an additional private workout for Okafor today. Private because it's expected to be competitive.

I hope the Lakers have a special interview process where they just let Kobe insult him for a couple hours so he can get used to his life for the next year.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

euphronius posted:

Are they going to ask him to play defense?

Every part of shot contesting in college is a foul. There's no verticality enforced. If you're a heavy boy you're better off just coasting on d and staying on the floor for offense. We'll see a truer picture of his defense as a pro.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

kiimo posted:

Who is healthy enough on the Lakers to give him competition though? They'll need to borrow some Clippers.

It's usually not against active NBA rosters usually someone from their d-league team.

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Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
If we isolated all other concerns, and only considered Russel v. Mudiay, in what sort of situation and for what reason would you choose Mudiay over Russell?

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