MLB N/V February: Colorado has been eliminated from playoff contention

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > MLB N/V February: Colorado has been eliminated from playoff contention

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Harlock: Jan 15, 2006; Tap "A" to drink!!!

Hanley is probably the full time 1B in AL parks. When playing without the DH who knows. Spell with Ortiz?

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:57

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# ? May 11, 2024 18:04

Intruder: Mar 5, 2003; I got a taste for blown saves

Maybe the Sox can lobby for a second DH since the Dodgers don't want one

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:59

Ice To Meet You: Mar 5, 2007

The NL having 3 teams with 70 wins or less means there are a lot more wins to go around to everyone else.

I have to say "a 50% chance of more than 96 losses" is pessimistic even for the Phillies.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 21:59

Good Dog: Oct 16, 2008; Who threw this cat at me?; Clapping Larry

Angels going to be below average offensively at every position but CF and RF and below average defensively at every position but CF, RF and SS (where they admittedly have top-3 guys at those spots). Maybe Tyler Skaggs coming back from TJS will help, maybe Weaver/Wilson will have a dead cat bounce. Mostly need guys that sucked last year to not suck so much. ( :suicide:

) I guess 81 wins sounds reasonable, especially with HOU/TEX improving this year in comparison.

Most projection systems always bunch teams up closer to .500, I'd bet the best team wins over 95 games and the worst team loses over 96.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 22:02

Inspector_666: Oct 7, 2003; _{benny with the good hair}

Ice To Meet You posted:

The NL having 3 teams with 70 wins or less means there are a lot more wins to go around to everyone else.

I have to say "a 50% chance of more than 96 losses" is pessimistic even for the Phillies.

I've always looked at the lack of a runaway winner in certain divisions as not necessarily a sign of weakness, but of a parity in strength between the teams.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 22:06

Ice To Meet You: Mar 5, 2007

Inspector_666 posted:

I've always looked at the lack of a runaway winner in certain divisions as not necessarily a sign of weakness, but of a parity in strength between the teams.

Basically, the AL is the SEC and the NL is the Big 10

# ? Feb 3, 2016 22:10

Harlock: Jan 15, 2006; Tap "A" to drink!!!

When are we going to do our prediction thread, I have a lot baseball thoughts.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 22:13

Poque: Sep 11, 2003; =^-^=

Good Dog posted:

Most projection systems always bunch teams up closer to .500, I'd bet the best team wins over 95 games and the worst team loses over 96.

that's happened literally every season but 2007 (and the strike-shortened seasons) in the last 30 years

# ? Feb 3, 2016 22:16

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

Good Dog posted:

Angels going to be below average offensively at every position but CF and RF

"Albert Pujols, sub-1.0 WAR player."

# ? Feb 3, 2016 22:21

Good Dog: Oct 16, 2008; Who threw this cat at me?; Clapping Larry

Everblight posted:

"Albert Pujols, sub-1.0 WAR player."

He had an OBP of .307 last year as primarily a DH. He is also coming off of *another* foot surgery and might not be ready for spring training. You don't need to be a sub-1 WAR player to be a below average 1B or DH.

# ? Feb 3, 2016 22:57

TheIncredulousHulk: Sep 3, 2012

2 fWAR is supposed to be the league average at every position but you have to hit really well to get there at the fat guy positions because the positional adjustments are so harsh

And AL still gonna kick the poo poo out of the NL in interleague play because it's a better overall league

# ? Feb 3, 2016 23:26

straight up brolic: Jan 31, 2007; After all, I was nice in ball,
Came to practice weed scented
Report card like the speed limit

the carribbean home run derby is about to be on, vlad's participating, and it's sponsored by hennessey

im hype.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 00:43

Eric the Mauve: May 8, 2012; Making you happy for a buck since 199X

I wish I could accuse that Pirates projection (83-79) as pessimistic, but... it sounds about right. Their starting pitching plan of "let's hand Ray Searage a box full of turds and see if he can produce two diamonds" is shaky. Little bit shaky.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 00:51

will_colorado: Jun 30, 2007

Found a video Whitey Herzog taking down Joel Youngblood in a brawl with the Giants in 1986:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtsdJIEu2uk

will_colorado fucked around with this message at 00:59 on Feb 4, 2016

# ? Feb 4, 2016 00:51

Senf: Nov 12, 2006

All that AL West projection tells me is that any team can stumble into the division title. I'm okay with that so long as it's not the Angels.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 02:06

tadashi: Feb 20, 2006

The only thing you can count on in the AL anymore is that Mike Trout will get screwed out of another MVP.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 02:20

Rand alPaul: Feb 3, 2010; by Nyc_Tattoo

Inspector_666 posted:

Where are the going to play him where he does have business being, though? Hanley looked totally lost in the OF, are they gonna try him at 1B? This is Ortiz' farewell tour year, so there's no way he loses any significant amount of DH time.

EDIT: I don't think Panda and Hanley will be as dreadful in 2016 as they were in 2015, but the projections are actually calling for the entire Sox offense except them to actually do worse, so I don't think they're going to be worth that many wins this year, either.

I have no idea why they signed two 3B on the same day. I remember reading the breaking news that Hanley was flying to Boston to sign, and then refreshing MLBTR and seeing that Pablo had a deal as well. I think Hanley would have been passable as a 3B, and would definitely outhit Sandoval.

Sandoval at this point should probably ride the bench or hope that San Francisco gets nostalgic and offers to take him back.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 02:27

Pancakes: May 21, 2001; Crypto-Rump Roast

Poque posted:

send Szczur, Soler, and Baez to the south side for Chris Sale and re-sign Dex

while I'm dreaming up impossible situations, give the Cardinals a postseason ban for the next five seasons

I really don't like the nightmare futures you and Kevlar dream up.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 02:27

R.D. Mangles: Jan 10, 2004

lol i'll believe the cards don't win the NL Central when it actually happens

# ? Feb 4, 2016 02:29

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

tadashi posted:

The only thing you can count on in the AL anymore is that Mike Trout will get screwed out of another MVP.

Unless he has the worst year of his career so far!

# ? Feb 4, 2016 02:49

Pancakes: May 21, 2001; Crypto-Rump Roast

R.D. Mangles posted:

lol i'll believe the cards don't win the NL Central when it actually happens

I'll have you know that in this century we haven't won the division almost half the time.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 04:00

Rand alPaul: Feb 3, 2010; by Nyc_Tattoo

will_colorado posted:

Found a video Whitey Herzog taking down Joel Youngblood in a brawl with the Giants in 1986:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtsdJIEu2uk

This is awesome and why doesn't the MLB Network just show baseball brawls during the offseason, I'd watch every week.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 04:06

will_colorado: Jun 30, 2007

Vlad Guerrero was in the home run derby in the Caribbean Series

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2016/02/04...adbpr=241544156

Rand alPaul posted:

This is awesome and why doesn't the MLB Network just show baseball brawls during the offseason, I'd watch every week.

just show older stuff that isn't already out there somewhere.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 06:36

Infidel Castro: Jun 8, 2010; Again and again
Your face reminds me of a bleak future
Despite the absence of hope
I give you this sacrifice

CubsWoo posted:

Updated Fangraphs Steamer projections with current FA signings/trades:
code:
Red Sox 91-71 (#1 seed)
Yankees 85-77 (WC1)
Blue Jays 84-78 (Tie, WC2)
Rays 82-80
Orioles 78-84

Indians 84-78 (#3 seed)
Tigers 82-80
White Sox 81-81
Royals 79-83
Twins 77-85

Astros 86-76 (#2 seed)
Mariners 84-78 (Tie, WC2)
Rangers 82-80
Angels 81-81
Athletics 78-84


Nationals 88-74 (#3 seed)
Mets 85-77 (WC2)
Marlins 81-81
Braves 68-94
Phillies 66-96

Cubs 95-67 (#1 seed)
Cardinals 84-78
Pirates 83-79
Reds 73-89
Brewers 70-92

Dodgers 91-71 (#2 seed)
Giants 86-76 (WC1)
Diamondbacks 79-83
Rockies 75-87
Padres 75-87
Top 5 offenses: BOS, TOR, DET, CHC,TEX
Top 5 pitching/defense: LAD, SFG, CHC, NYM, WSH
Best projected run differential: CHC, BOS, LAD, WSH, HOU

Worst 5 offenses: PHI, SDP, ATL, CIN, SFG
Worst 5 pitching/defense: COL, MIL, BAL, DET, MIN
Worst projected run differential: PHI, ATL, MIL, CIN, COL

I have hard time believing the Twins will have the worst record in the AL. Yeah, they might regress a bit, but yeesh. Maybe if you read it as "anyone can win the AL Central and I'm just throwing up number because I have to" it makes sense.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 06:53

straight up brolic: Jan 31, 2007; After all, I was nice in ball,
Came to practice weed scented
Report card like the speed limit

I get that the Cardinals were lucky last season and this is #advancedstats based, but expecting them to lose 16 less games when they have some semblance of a healthy roster makes no sense.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 06:57

Explosionface: May 30, 2011; We can dance if we want to,
we can leave Marle behind.
'Cause your fiends don't dance,
and if they don't dance,
they'll get a Robo Fist of mine.

will_colorado posted:

Found a video Whitey Herzog taking down Joel Youngblood in a brawl with the Giants in 1986:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtsdJIEu2uk

My favorite part is how this is one of the few times that a crowd chanting "Whitey!" is acceptable.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 07:07

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

straight up brolic posted:

I get that the Cardinals were lucky last season and this is #advancedstats based, but expecting them to lose 16 less games when they have some semblance of a healthy roster makes no sense.

Well, they also did lose their best position player AND best pitcher from last year to their division rivals.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 07:13

R.D. Mangles: Jan 10, 2004

STEAMER projections don't seem to factor in Cardinals Bullshit.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 07:14

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

R.D. Mangles posted:

STEAMER projections don't seem to factor in Cardinals Bullshit.

Giants with a terrible offense that will give it the potential to become inexplicably amazing in the playoffs. It seems to pass the Even Year Bullshit test.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 07:16

Groucho Marxist: Dec 9, 2005; Do you smell what The Mauk is cooking?

a projection system will predict a 100 win team to win way less games the next season regardless of what kind of offseason they had

# ? Feb 4, 2016 09:59

Deathlove: Feb 20, 2003; Pillbug

News: The Cubs have re-signed Matt Murton.

Views:

# ? Feb 4, 2016 14:48

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

He's still around?

# ? Feb 4, 2016 15:07

tadashi: Feb 20, 2006

Deathlove posted:

News: The Cubs have re-signed Matt Murton.

Views:

They won the offseason because Murton and Kawasaki.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 15:13

BigBallChunkyTime: Nov 25, 2011; Kyle Schwarber: World Series hero, Beefy Lad, better than you.; Illegal Hen

FlamingLiberal posted:

He's still around?

For certain!

....... I'll let myself out.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 16:08

YeahTubaMike: Mar 24, 2005; *hic* Gotta finish thish . . .; Doctor Rope

N: Matt Harvey has mistaken Jacob deGrom for a lady in the locker room.

quote:

"He's got good flow," Harvey said of deGrom.

V: I wonder how teenage Matt Harvey felt about Taylor Hanson.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 16:43

CubsWoo: Aug 17, 2005; Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU

If Murton hits anywhere near how he has in NPB you could do a lot worse for a 25th man/5th OF.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 16:54

Shrecknet: Jan 2, 2005

https://twitter.com/toppscards/status/694607797195943936

owns.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 16:55

Intruder: Mar 5, 2003; I got a taste for blown saves

That is beautiful

# ? Feb 4, 2016 16:57

Latkje: Jun 3, 2011

bawfuls posted:

Surprise, projection systems don't buy into Matt Duffy and Joe Panik being 4+ WAR players again!

(It still projects them both over 3.0 though so it's not exactly making GBS threads all over them either)

Also this "bottom 5 offense" thing is based on projected runs scored, and the Giants play in an extreme pitcher's park. If you factor in league and park, it's projecting about an average offense. (Which is still a regression from one of the top 2-3 offenses in baseball.)

# ? Feb 4, 2016 17:14

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# ? May 11, 2024 18:04

IcePhoenix: Sep 18, 2005; Take me to your Shida

Latkje posted:

Also this "bottom 5 offense" thing is based on projected runs scored, and the Giants play in an extreme pitcher's park. If you factor in league and park, it's projecting about an average offense. (Which is still a regression from one of the top 2-3 offenses in baseball.)

Seventh best became top 2-3 really quickly, wow.

# ? Feb 4, 2016 17:21

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > MLB N/V February: Colorado has been eliminated from playoff contention

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