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Kashuno posted:I feel like if there are protection roles out there this is a good time to claim there is probably only 1 scum left. Yes but wait a sec let me type something
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:02 |
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# ? Apr 28, 2024 03:11 |
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:29 |
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OK I've thought about it and I think it's not a good idea to claim quite yet. The reason being is that we might be in a single-town-PR setup. If that's the case, it's a really bad trade for town. We get 1 confirmed town which is good but is a relatively small help at this point with 7 still alive. And that's basically all we get out of it, because both of the single-town-PR setups can't protect themselves so our PR gets NKed instantly. Our PRs can still claim if they get to L-1 and scum are in no position to counterclaim, so we would basically get absolutely nothing out of it. If we're setup B, for example, this would be disastrous. If it's a double-PR setup, it's a little better, but still unnecessary. Again, what do we get out of it? We instantly get 2 conftown, but again if we L-1 either of them, they can just claim anyways. In either situation, scum gets a lot of info. And right now there are no conftown in the game yet, so scum don't have any obvious NK targets. But we'd be giving them ones if we claimed. If you have to claim, it's often better to claim 2 potential roles. For example, if you're Jailkeeper, a better claim would be "Jailkeeper or 1-shot BP" since that gives scum less info. So Kash, your advice is really bad and scummy. ##vote Kash
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:35 |
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It's pretty unlikely that we have setup B thanks to the lack of NK, but it still doesn't make any sense to claim yet.
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:40 |
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scum bustered ##vote Kashuno
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:43 |
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I'm on mobile atm but the fact you think scum would try to push a claim at lylo-2 and draw a huge target on themselves is laughable hope this helps
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:43 |
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Absurd Revolver posted:yeah seriously i just wanted to make sure Absurd Revolver posted:Speaking of close votes Absurd Revolver posted:scum bustered AR doesn't offer a single opinion on their votes and no game related posts all game. Swoops in on a shoddy at best case with a blank vote and doesn't put in any effort. Their vote on quid screams fake. ##vote AR
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:46 |
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Kashuno posted:I'm on mobile atm but the fact you think scum would try to push a claim at lylo-2 and draw a huge target on themselves is laughable hope this helps Then what was your purpose in rolefishing? Scum is indeed in a really bad spot this game which is why they're more likely to gambit.
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:49 |
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Kashuno posted:AR doesn't offer a single opinion on their votes and no game related posts all game. Swoops in on a shoddy at best case with a blank vote and doesn't put in any effort. Their vote on quid screams fake. ##vote AR Nice OMGUS scum.
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:49 |
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Absurd Revolver posted:Nice OMGUS scum. An OMGUS doesn't have actual casing behind it buddy
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:51 |
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Kashuno posted:I'm on mobile atm but the fact you think scum would try to push a claim at lylo-2 and draw a huge target on themselves is laughable hope this helps This post right here makes it clear that you're aware of how anti-town pushing a claim right now is. So why the gently caress would you do so if you're town?
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:51 |
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Kasumeat posted:Then what was your purpose in rolefishing? Scum is indeed in a really bad spot this game which is why they're more likely to gambit. Kasumeat posted:This post right here makes it clear that you're aware of how anti-town pushing a claim right now is. So why the gently caress would you do so if you're town? ..? My post is pretty clear that claiming would be PRO town. Idk how you're trying to represent it as me thinking it is anti town. Just because I'm well aware that people would find the idea scummy doesn't mean it is isn't advantageous to town
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:53 |
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I mean if you are so sure go ahead and lynch me town is in a great spot I don't mind being mislynched here but AR is clearly scum and I like perfect games
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:55 |
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You're contradicting yourself. If your rolefishing was pro-town, it'd make you look town, which is always desirable. If there's some logical flaw in my assertion that rolefishing is anti-town at this point, please point it out. You tried to get people to claim, but you haven't explained WHY it's pro-town. I don't see it at all. In the meantime, this just looks like a desperate scum pulling a "too scummy to be scum" gambit.
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# ? May 20, 2016 19:57 |
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A call to claim, even if advantageous for town, is usually met with skepticism and resistance by town because it does give scum information. However if there is a doc in this setup, each town now has a 25% chance of hitting scum. Those odds are high and the scum player is forced to eliminate the doc or the confirmed town tonight which leads to the doc having a 50/50 chance of choosing the right target for their doc if they can self doc or repeat doc
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:01 |
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There's only a 1/3 chance we have a doc. Maybe 40% if you eliminate setup B for being very unlikely. But then less than 40% since we had a no-kill night, meaning setup 1 or A are more likely than a doc setup. Either way, it's significantly less likely we have a doc than not, meaning claiming is bad more often than not.
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:11 |
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Kasumeat posted:There's only a 1/3 chance we have a doc. Maybe 40% if you eliminate setup B for being very unlikely. But then less than 40% since we had a no-kill night, meaning setup 1 or A are more likely than a doc setup. Either way, it's significantly less likely we have a doc than not, meaning claiming is bad more often than not. It's interesting how your first post was "yes I agree about claiming" and then you switch to no and it makes me scum. Also, remind me why the odds are so low we have a doctor?
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:17 |
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Kashuno posted:It's interesting how your first post was "yes I agree about claiming" and then you switch to no and it makes me scum. Also, remind me why the odds are so low we have a doctor? Yeah I thought about it and realised how terrible an idea it is. Based purely on the setup, 1/3 will spawn Doctors, 2/3 will not. Pretty straightforward. The lack of NK makes setups 1 and A more likely because Jailer is twice as likely to prevent a NK as Doc and then BP helps too.
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:23 |
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Oh I'm a loving idiot and didn't realize this was a matrix6
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:31 |
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Kashuno posted:Oh I'm a loving idiot and didn't realize this was a matrix6 well that makes what your saying make a lot more sense. if you setup specced wrong, then i'd believe your mistake. ##unvote
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:33 |
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Hrm AR I still don't like your vote and think you were way too opportunistic
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:37 |
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Kashuno posted:Hrm AR I still don't like your vote and think you were way too opportunistic fair enough, but i believe you that you made an honest mistake
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:38 |
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Kasumeat posted:It's pretty unlikely that we have setup B thanks to the lack of NK, but it still doesn't make any sense to claim yet. Kasumeat posted:There's only a 1/3 chance we have a doc. Maybe 40% if you eliminate setup B for being very unlikely. But then less than 40% since we had a no-kill night, meaning setup 1 or A are more likely than a doc setup. Either way, it's significantly less likely we have a doc than not, meaning claiming is bad more often than not. Kash, I mentioned Setup B 3 times before you claimed you didn't realise this: my original casing post, plus these 2 posts dedicated entirely to setup spec. How do you possibly miss this?
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:42 |
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Kasumeat posted:Kash, I mentioned Setup B 3 times before you claimed you didn't realise this: my original casing post, plus these 2 posts dedicated entirely to setup spec. How do you possibly miss this? I had thought you were putting forward different possible setups and just labeling them a and b
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:46 |
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##unvote Kash for now. Still highly suspicious.
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:54 |
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I'm not moving my vote right now
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# ? May 20, 2016 20:56 |
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##vote ypm scum = busted gj doc saving me last night. wp.
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# ? May 20, 2016 21:17 |
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Nutsack Rangoon posted:##vote ypm explain yourself mister
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# ? May 20, 2016 21:18 |
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Nutsack Rangoon posted:##vote ypm I am intrigued by this. Continue.
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# ? May 20, 2016 21:24 |
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Seriously don't just drop something like that and leave, it kills all the other discussion
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# ? May 20, 2016 22:10 |
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It's a pretty clear that he's claiming Tracker and saying that he tracked YPM trying to kill him and the Doc protected him, but I'm not seeing how he would know YPM isn't the Doc.
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# ? May 20, 2016 22:54 |
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Kasumeat posted:It's a pretty clear that he's claiming Tracker and saying that he tracked YPM trying to kill him and the Doc protected him, but I'm not seeing how he would know YPM isn't the Doc. It's actually not clear at all
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# ? May 20, 2016 23:00 |
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If this isn't a fakeclaim and it's just a weird Tracker claim, there's a 50/50 chance than YPM is Doc or Scum. Or maybe there's something I'm not seeing but I can't see how that post could mean anything else.
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# ? May 20, 2016 23:03 |
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Kashuno posted:It's actually not clear at all What else could that post mean though? I can't comprehend anything else
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# ? May 20, 2016 23:04 |
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I don't really understand either. More details, please.
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# ? May 20, 2016 23:07 |
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its not a claim at all omg.
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# ? May 20, 2016 23:24 |
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Kashuno posted:its not a claim at all omg. So what is it?
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# ? May 20, 2016 23:27 |
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nothing until he actually comes back and talks.
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# ? May 20, 2016 23:28 |
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Fair enough but it's a preetttty big crumb.
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# ? May 20, 2016 23:43 |
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# ? Apr 28, 2024 03:11 |
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If it's true, then doesn't that prove your theory incorrect, Kasu? There being a doc, that is.
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# ? May 20, 2016 23:45 |