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These articles are a start, but the information is basically the same as the stuff they were saying in the 2012 primary and probably also said multiple times in smaller articles during this primary.Nate Silver posted:Data-driven forecasts aren’t just about looking at the polls. Instead, they’re about applying the empirical method and demanding evidence for one’s conclusions. The historical evidence suggested that early primary polls weren’t particularly reliable — they’d failed to identify the winners in 2004, 2008 and 2012 — and that other measurable factors, such as endorsements, were more predictive. Harry Enten posted:Why did I ignore these polls? Early polls, even a month before a primary election, haven’t been very predictive. The candidates typically have varying levels of name recognition; most voters don’t make up their mind until right before they cast a ballot. We all remember President Howard Dean, right? Yet, there were plenty of other candidates who led in the polling throughout and won, such as George W. Bush in 2000. I still think it was right to be highly skeptical of the polls in the summer and fall of 2015. But as Trump maintained and even expanded his lead into 2016, I should have been quicker to give them more weight than I gave to the lack of a precedent for Trump. (I did do this eventually; it just took too long.)
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Jul 22, 2016 05:15
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Pakled posted:I don't think I've seen Trump get above 43% in a national poll. Somehow there are still a lot of undecided voters (~15-20%). This is completely inexplicable, how can anyone be undecided about Trump at this point?
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Jul 22, 2016 05:15
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Nocturtle posted:Somehow there are still a lot of undecided voters (~15-20%). This is completely inexplicable, how can anyone be undecided about Trump at this point? Most of those people aren't going to vote 
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Jul 22, 2016 05:16
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Nocturtle posted:Somehow there are still a lot of undecided voters (~15-20%). This is completely inexplicable, how can anyone be undecided about Trump at this point? People lie to themselves and want to pretend they're still making up their mind and thus in power. Consider the partisan who hasn't decided if Clinton/Trump has proven their worth. They're not going to vote against their own party but they might say they are undecided in a poll.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:19
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Spiritus Nox posted:So if Donald keeps quadrupling-down on the white power vote, I should be happy, because I still see no reason to think he does above 5% in any broad demographic that isn't white, and I still see no reason to believe you can win on whites alone.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:20
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Kilroy posted:If turnout and voting patterns remain the same as 2012 for blacks and college-educated whites, and if the Democrats get 95% of the non-black minority vote at 2012 levels of turnout, then Trump needs 80% of the non-college-educated white vote (at 2012 turnout) to win. Romney got 62% of this demographic. ...If you were trying to make me feel better it didn't work, because I wouldn't be stunned to see Donald Trump get 80% of non-college whites. 
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Jul 22, 2016 05:25
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Fojar38 posted:The GOP has been trying to destroy Hillary for years, and the best that they have gotten payoff-wise was that FBI director calling her careless when he said he wouldn't indict within spitting distance of the RNC. This is the low point of her campaign people, and Trump can't even tie her in the polls. What gets me is if they would have just pushed him harder about how careless Hillary really was and gotten more quotables from him, and not tried to shame him and insult him by saying he should have indicted her and put her in jail they probably would have come out ahead.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:27
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Yeah that post was not meant to be encouraging.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:27
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DemeaninDemon posted:Has Trump even gone above 45% or whatever nationally? The funniest thing about the constant arzying over polls is that Trump's numbers haven't really gone up or down, the only changes in the race are Hillary's number fluctuating. I think this election is going to be an interesting test of what the exact floor of support for a Republican candidate is in the 21st century.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:27
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Nocturtle posted:Somehow there are still a lot of undecided voters (~15-20%). This is completely inexplicable, how can anyone be undecided about Trump at this point? you can not like trump and also not like the other choices given in the poll, friend
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Jul 22, 2016 05:28
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I was gonna post a link to the article about the George Harrison estate saying that the use of Here Comes the Sun at the RNC was shameful and against the wishes of the estate, or about Paul Rodgers' tweet about All Right Now not being allowed to be used by Trump either, but then I realized that it would probably just be quicker to make a list of artists who would allow their songs to be used, because I can't imagine Mick, Keith or Elton will be too terribly happy when they wake up either.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:30
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Spiritus Nox posted:...If you were trying to make me feel better it didn't work, because I wouldn't be stunned to see Donald Trump get 80% of non-college whites. That's pretty drat insulting to Caucasians without a degree. You wouldn't be surprised if 80% of them were wackadoodle racists?
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Jul 22, 2016 05:34
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TheBizzness posted:That's pretty drat insulting to Caucasians without a degree. You wouldn't be surprised if 80% of them were wackadoodle racists?
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Jul 22, 2016 05:37
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TheBizzness posted:That's pretty drat insulting to Caucasians without a degree. You wouldn't be surprised if 80% of them were wackadoodle racists? I'd be surprised and sick, but not stunned. Chose my words carefully there.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:38
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UV_Catastrophe posted:It is immensely frustrating how the two party system psychologically short-circuits so many people. We are now facing down Donald loving Trump as president, and people don't want to get off their couch to vote for Clinton. Long ago and far away, but: yoink: A phrase appearing often in "The Simpsons" televison program used to verbally indicate one has taken something from another and fled. "Hey, great science project, Lisa. Yoink!" [Note: this definition has also been "yoinked".
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Jul 22, 2016 05:39
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If Bernie had grown docile in the recent weeks, he's definitely got his blood all angried up after Trump tried to use him and his platform as a bludgeon. There's already ads/mailers going out for downticket Democrats promising to deliver on Bernie's message. If he delivers a fiery condemnation of Trump and the GOP at the DNC it's going to be fantaaaaaaastic for ramming through progressive reforms in the coming decades
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Jul 22, 2016 05:43
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Is that 80% of the percent of that demo that turns out or is that 80% of the total number of people in that demo which means if their turnout is 80% then Trump needs 100% of the ones that turn out?
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Jul 22, 2016 05:43
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How much of Hillary's campaign spending thus far has gone to ad buys post convention? Also, we know that Trump hasnt expanded much on his campaign efforts since his cash on hand numbers and June fundraising numbers indicate that as of July 1st he hadn't worked on infrastructure. Hilldawg on the other hand is actively investing to the tune of ~20+ million for two consecutive months and maintaing a war chest double that of Trumps. All with the DNCC yet to happen. Plus she gained access to OFAs massive database this past month. Basically, she has a lot of assets that arent being currently figured.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:45
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ErIog posted:Is that 80% of the percent of that demo that turns out or is that 80% of the total number of people in that demo which means if their turnout is 80% then Trump needs 100% of the ones that turn out? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/ By the way 80% is a little optimistic. It's closer to 75%. Leave college-educated whites and the black vote alone, move hispanic/latino and asian/other to 95% Dem keeping the turnout the same. Then move non-college white to the right until the election flips to the GOP. This should occur at 76%. Kilroy fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Jul 22, 2016 |
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Jul 22, 2016 05:49
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Its because he really doesn't need to buy ads because he can just get the news media to cover what he's doing whenever he wants. Also, though he isn't running a campaign office and ground crew because it costs millions of dollars and he hasn't taken in really poo poo for donations. I can't imagine what the debates are going to be.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:49
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Boon posted:How much of Hillary's campaign spending thus far has gone to ad buys post convention? This is going to be the election where we *really* see exactly how much a GOTV effort matters.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:53
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Hollismason posted:I can't imagine what the debates are going to be. The debates are going to be amazing and frustrating. Amazing because hearing Hillary tear into Trump, who can't hope to go toe-to-toe with her on the issues, is going to be immensely satisfying, but frustrating because he's going to say some stupid platitudes that will get treated by the media as being equal counter-points to Hillary's well thought-out positions.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:54
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Pakled posted:The debates are going to be amazing and frustrating. Amazing because hearing Hillary tear into Trump, who can't hope to go toe-to-toe with her on the issues, is going to be immensely satisfying, but frustrating because he's going to say some stupid platitudes that will get treated by the media as being equal counter-points to Hillary's well thought-out positions. He is hosed.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:55
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Pakled posted:The debates are going to be amazing and frustrating. Amazing because hearing Hillary tear into Trump, who can't hope to go toe-to-toe with her on the issues, is going to be immensely satisfying, but frustrating because he's going to say some stupid platitudes that will get treated by the media as being equal counter-points to Hillary's well thought-out positions.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:56
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Night10194 posted:This is going to be the election where we *really* see exactly how much a GOTV effort matters. If Trump is serious about wasting his already weak warchest in Cali and NY this is going to be the most glorious poo poo-stomping.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:56
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Kilroy posted:Also the bar will be set so low for Trump that basically it'll be a draw provided he doesn't call her a oval office to her face on national TV. Maybe the following debates will be a little more even in terms of expectations, but expect the first debate to be a wash, at best. Yeah he's pretty much operating under Sarah Palin rules.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:57
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Hillary will probably have spent 5 months making sure she knew every way to defeat anything even remotely close to a gish gallop.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:57
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Also it's nice that Hillary has a lot of money, but some other candidate whose Name! I can't recall spent a lot of money recently only to see his career utterly destroyed.
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Jul 22, 2016 05:59
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Kilroy posted:Also the bar will be set so low for Trump that basically it'll be a draw provided he doesn't call her a oval office to her face on national TV. Maybe the following debates will be a little more even in terms of expectations, but expect the first debate to be a wash, at best. I also worry he might vomit forth a torrent of self-contradictory Schroedinger's bullshit so bewilderingly stupid there's no way for Hillary to argue against it.
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Jul 22, 2016 06:00
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Hollismason posted:Its because he really doesn't need to buy ads because he can just get the news media to cover what he's doing whenever he wants. Also, though he isn't running a campaign office and ground crew because it costs millions of dollars and he hasn't taken in really poo poo for donations. The point of the ad buy question (I havent seen any and dont have a feel for the current schedule on US channels and especially battleground states) that Hillary big weakness is not that her opponent is a likeable guy, but that she's seen as his level of unlikeable. When her ad blitz begins I would expect it to focus on her rather than him and to find her favorables and her poll numbers to shift accordingly (so long as the conventional idea holds). Either way, even a small bump by November and locking in her base should be enough. So the question I really have, is when is that ad blitz supposed to start? August? September? Kilroy posted:Also it's nice that Hillary has a lot of money, but some other candidate whose Name! I can't recall spent a lot of money recently only to see his career utterly destroyed. While that's true, I think it's fair to state that money is a key enabler and not the mechanism of winning. Turns out if your candidate can't handle and adapt to a populist force, all the money in the world can't save you. I don't think Hillary has shown herself to be openly dunked on by the GOP, much less Trump. Boon fucked around with this message at 06:06 on Jul 22, 2016 |
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Jul 22, 2016 06:02
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Kilroy posted:Also it's nice that Hillary has a lot of money, but some other candidate whose Name! I can't recall spent a lot of money recently only to see his career utterly destroyed. Hillary is nowhere near as incompetent as Jeb!. Jeb! let that dude insult his wife and then high fived him later that same night. At least Cruz had the balls to say gently caress that dude, don't insult my goddamn wife. And then Eviscerate him on a public stage in primetime. If Hillary has low charisma and natural charm, Jeb! has negative. Also Jeb! couldn't attack him from the left like Hillary can.
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Jul 22, 2016 06:03
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl7yv7BNHsk "I Believe in a God that calls us not to judge our neighbors, but to love them." "I want to change the tone of Washington, to one of civility and respect." "We will give low income Americans tax credits to purchase health insurance they need and deserve." "Racial progress has been steady, but it's still too slow." It's admittedly cherry picking for middle-ground, sane, talking points, but this platform squeezed out the narrowest margin for a presidency in a really long time. In my wildest dreams, I never imagined I would say, "Let me go back and watch George Bush's convention speech for an appeal to the decency that the Republican party used to stand for". And maybe that's what Trump is, an orange funeral procession, to serve as a eulogy for the once "great" Bush administration and elevate his undeserving presidency to the same, equally undeserving, plateau of reverence that Reagan gets credited for.
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Jul 22, 2016 06:05
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aellisr posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl7yv7BNHsk Seriously look at this stuff. https://www.buzzfeed.com/adriancarrasquillo/when-george-w-bushs-2000-convention-featured-a-latino-theme?utm_term=.vn95oev1w#.hmlzW7YaZ
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Jul 22, 2016 06:07
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So is the assumption that Hillary names her VP tomorrow?
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Jul 22, 2016 06:13
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Dexo posted:Seriously look at this stuff. A thousand times this. My maternal side of the family is Cuban and they adored GWB, but they loath Trump. He is a punchline that keeps giving a community reasons to ridicule and mock him. I think Sam Harris called Trump, "A poor man's idea of a rich man", which I always attributed to an assessment of financials; but, I am increasingly believing the aptitude of that assessment would lead to "poor" being an indicator of ethics and morals. "Look at him, he made being a racist work for him!"
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Jul 22, 2016 06:17
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The Glumslinger posted:So is the assumption that Hillary names her VP tomorrow? Yes, she's announcing it in Florida then doing some joint campaigning down there over the weekend.
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Jul 22, 2016 06:19
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ehck
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Jul 22, 2016 06:19
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Wow, shocking it hasn't leaked yet. Anybody try to order pizzas for Castro, Kaine, or Vilsack?
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Jul 22, 2016 06:28
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ErIog posted:Wow, shocking it hasn't leaked yet. Anybody try to order pizzas for Castro, Kaine, or Vilsack? The final shortlist was Kaine, Vilsack, Perez. Overall it feels like it's Kaine and has been for weeks.
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Jul 22, 2016 06:29
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All Aboard the Kaine Train choo chooo
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Jul 22, 2016 06:29
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