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Eight Dollars
Nov 14, 2012

Pretty pictures in small frames

Poque posted:

yeah Adam wins this season

He's getting the Jeremy edit so much it's crazy. I can't see him not at least getting Final 3.

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Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

But isn't this the exact same edit that made Stephen go all-in on a Jon Misch win?

Bolivar
Aug 20, 2011

My favourite part at the tribal:

Jess: so I should have just trusted you, just like that?
Ken: Yes.
.
And right there you can see on Jess's face when she realized that he was right and that she made a mistake. I love it when people can admit it to themselves that they were loving WRONG and that was a prime example. Most people have too big of an ego to admit it, especially on Survivor.
Also great use of idol from David, whether it pays off or not.

And it's too bad the puzzle wasn't something with "DEMOLISH". Dave was onto something :gary:

Bolivar fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Oct 13, 2016

George Kansas
Sep 1, 2008

preface all my posts with this
I think regardless of how Dave turns out, he still made a big impact on the game and a very fun, memorable moment. Possibly the best moment of the season.

My initial thought was that it was a very dumb move but I think with the chaos of Survivor it could either pay off brilliantly or burn him horribly. Just doing big fun plays like that is probably worth it regardless of what happens.

I hope Ken doesn't resent Dave for the play, though. Ken looked really upset when he brought out the idol.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Eight Dollars posted:

He's getting the Jeremy edit so much it's crazy. I can't see him not at least getting Final 3.
Up until he found the idol I thought Adam was getting the Narrator edit where it's basically his season but somebody else wins.

Eight Dollars
Nov 14, 2012

Pretty pictures in small frames

Fast Luck posted:

But isn't this the exact same edit that made Stephen go all-in on a Jon Misch win?

UltimoDragonQuest posted:

Up until he found the idol I thought Adam was getting the Narrator edit where it's basically his season but somebody else wins.

I don't really remember the Jon Misch thing, but my feeling mainly comes from him getting both the narrator edit and the show trying to explicitly show his thought process the entire time, even when his tribe isn't going to tribal. Like taking the hidden idol aside, they've made sure to show him working on the other teammates who voted against him and have confessionals where he talks about his strategy. Pretty much no other millennial has gotten that imo.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

Fast Luck posted:

But isn't this the exact same edit that made Stephen go all-in on a Jon Misch win?

If Fishbach could read people he'd be a winner.

MrBuddyLee
Aug 24, 2004
IN DEBUT, I SPEW!!!
Brilliant play by Dave. I think it earned him the respect of everyone on his tribe. I don't see a scenario in which he gets voted out before the next merge. He has too many allies.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
He has CeCe, Jessica, and Ken. They claim Jessica and Sunday are tight.

Sunday and Ken voted for Jessica last episode. Jessica voted for CeCe.

I don't think David is particularly safe, but we're getting a swap next episode so we'll see how it all shakes out.

Milovan Drecun
Apr 17, 2007
I masturbate in traffic.

sportsgenius86 posted:

After Ken telling Jess and Jess immediately telling everyone else, I can see why Dave kept the play to himself.

That's a very good point, and if he knew how everyone else was voting (which seems likely) it's not such a big risk. Only Sunday would conceivably have voted with Jess for CC, and I think we saw her with the majority when they talked about voting Jess out. If she wanted to save Jess, she would have said something.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

Red_Museum
Apr 17, 2011

Shredded Hen
Guess we know when Lucy's cast photo was taken

http://parade.com/515653/joshwigler/survivor-millennials-vs-gen-x-lucy-huang-exit-interview/

quote:

Lucy: I’m cooking rice, and I would say, “Ken, can you get the coconut for my rice?” And he would say, “Um, you mean, ‘Ken, could you please get the coconut, and thank you?'” And I’m like, “Really?”

George Kansas
Sep 1, 2008

preface all my posts with this
I really like Ken, and how polite and sort of emotionally demanding he is. He seems like a genuinely cool dude. He might be the only Gen Xer I like, come to think of it.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
The more I think about it, the more I like the move for David. Someone like David is never going to get votes at Final Tribal Council unless he proves himself early, because people will think of him as a joke of a player that should have been the first person out. What exactly was his best case scenario before this move? Flip to Taylor and the Millenials and then hope to get dragged as a goat to the finals? Or stay with the Gen X tribe that mostly hates him and then hope to get dragged as a goat to the finals? If the merge is at 12, the majority alliance at the first merge vote will be at least 7 people, so even if by some miracle he, Ken, and CeCe all make the merge and squirm into the majority, those 3 will almost certainly not have any majority "equity" within that alliance. Any scenario where David maintains that status quo and makes it to the finals is a scenario where he looks like he was "dragged" there.

By making a bold move now, he is someone who has earned himself some power and some respect. And even though there's a swap next week, if (again, by some miracle) he, CeCe, Ken, and Jessica do all make the merge, the 4 of them could reasonably be the head of some majority alliance at a merge of 12 (say, by picking up some Millennial scraps like Zeke, Adam, and Hannah, and forming an alliance of 7). Obviously, the post-merge in modern Survivor is going to be more complicated than forming an alliance of 7 and riding that 5 straight votes, but at the very least the optics for David look a lot better if the four Gen X misfits are the core of some majority alliance instead of the periphery.

The move probably substantially decreases his chance of actually making the finals, but if he does I think his odds of winning have increased substantially.

I also disagree with the consensus that David should have expected a swap soon. There are only two other Survivor seasons which had ____ vs. ___ as its only subtitle with no location (Heroes vs. Villains and Blood vs. Water). The former had no swap, and the second had a relatively late swap. It's not outlandish to think they would ride the theme out longer, especially because the season has such a large number of players.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I mostly like David's move.

1) It theoretically buys him some trust and some allies when he was short on them and needs them if he's going to get through this game.
2) It theoretically gives his group control of his tribe which puts him out of the crosshairs he was worried he was in.
3) Its early enough in the game that people probably won't hold grudges and will end up respecting it more than resenting it.

That last part I think is key and a couple of people talked about it. A lot of the times saving your idol to save yourself is kind of pointless. It might buy you a week but if it doesn't change anything what's the good of it? The idol is more powerful if you can use it to do more than just save your rear end for one week and that's clearly what David tried to do here. And not only could that help him right now and in the immediate future but its a big mark on theoretical Final Tribal Council resume that probably won't come back to bite him.

Sure, he doesn't have an idol in his pocket if he feels in danger down the line but what are the odds David is going to be a big target any time soon? Now that he's theoretically moved past that bad first impression he made and worked his way out of the pits of his tribe he should be safe for awhile. So its better for the long game, I think.

The rub is of course the threat of a tribal switch. And if I'm playing I 100% expect one because there's almost always one. But I also figure you can't play for the twists because you have no idea what they are or when they'll come. You have to make your moves with what you can control and see. So David worked his way into a good position with Gen X. Maybe that flops if Gen X doesn't exist for long but he can't control how that will go.


Also, Hannah is pure comic relief.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




mancalamania posted:

I also disagree with the consensus that David should have expected a swap soon. There are only two other Survivor seasons which had ____ vs. ___ as its only subtitle with no location (Heroes vs. Villains and Blood vs. Water). The former had no swap, and the second had a relatively late swap. It's not outlandish to think they would ride the theme out longer, especially because the season has such a large number of players.

It's more outlandish to believe that the timing of a swap is based on the title of a season, but alright??

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Lone Goat posted:

It's more outlandish to believe that the timing of a swap is based on the title of a season, but alright??

The logic is that a season like Survivor: Caramoan: Fans vs. Favorites is still a season of Survivor that takes place in Caramoan even if there isn't literally a tribe of Fans competing against a tribe of Favorites, whereas a season title like Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains only makes sense as long as there is a tribe of Heroes competing against a tribe of Villains (not only was there no swap, but there was a very late merge). Really, Heroes vs. Villains is the only precedent for this since Blood vs. Water was never a tribe of blood competing against a tribe of water; it just referred to the general concept of competing with and against loved ones which was something that lasted the whole day.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
Lucy is super :salt: about Jessica and CeCe on the RHAP exit interview.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

BottleKnight posted:

I really like Ken, and how polite and sort of emotionally demanding he is. He seems like a genuinely cool dude. He might be the only Gen Xer I like, come to think of it.
He gives me Matthew von Ertfelda vibes. Like, probably a pretty good guy but sort of marches to a different beat than most humans

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Oct 14, 2016

inferis
Dec 30, 2003

xbilkis posted:


Glad David is basically 100% guaranteed to misplay this though (even though I like him)

remember this?

Baddog
May 12, 2001
I think it would have worked out well for him. Looks like he would have had a solid four. It sucks that we won't see how it would have played out.

Orange Sunshine
May 10, 2011

by FactsAreUseless

mancalamania posted:


I also disagree with the consensus that David should have expected a swap soon. There are only two other Survivor seasons which had ____ vs. ___ as its only subtitle with no location (Heroes vs. Villains and Blood vs. Water). The former had no swap, and the second had a relatively late swap. It's not outlandish to think they would ride the theme out longer, especially because the season has such a large number of players.

There's nearly always a tribe swap at about this point in the game. Otherwise the game becomes far too predictable and boring after the merge. Nobody wants to watch a group of 6 vote out a group of 5 one by one for 5 weeks straight.

Sand Monster
Apr 13, 2008

Bolivar posted:

My favourite part at the tribal:

Jess: so I should have just trusted you, just like that?
Ken: Yes.
.
And right there you can see on Jess's face when she realized that he was right and that she made a mistake. I love it when people can admit it to themselves that they were loving WRONG and that was a prime example. Most people have too big of an ego to admit it, especially on Survivor.
Also great use of idol from David, whether it pays off or not.

Dugong
Mar 18, 2013

I don't know what to do,
I'm going to lose my mind

David and Ken :syoon:

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne

Fast Luck posted:

He gives me Matthew von Ertfelda vibes. Like, probably a pretty good guy but sort of marches to a different beat than most humans

Yeah, I mean he's spent all this time living off the grid. He definitely has different social needs than most.

but cmon don't put that evil on Ken.

Baddog
May 12, 2001

I dunno about this "moment of self realization" you all are talking about.

That looks like a "what the gently caress is mentally wrong with this dude" face to me.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

There's no way she didn't feel Ken's clinical-grade sincerity enveloping her in that moment

Fast Luck fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Oct 14, 2016

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




There's no way she didn't think "Is this guy for real?" in that moment.

Fedelm
Apr 21, 2013

It's called Ursa Major, not Ursula Merger. And that's not even it. That's Orion.
My take was that she was waiting for Ken to back up his response and annoyed when he didn't. She might have then realized that she made a mistake or felt his sincerity, but I'm not seeing that in her reaction. I was hoping an interview or something with Jessica would shed some light.

Also wondering if David has secured his inheritance with that idol play.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

Regardless of if it was a smart move for him, it was a fun play of the idol and makes for more exciting stuff. When dealing with the first half of the game, I usually think it's more important to keep your alliance strong. Had he made it to the merge, that's when I would say "Nah, keep it for yourself."

Orange Sunshine
May 10, 2011

by FactsAreUseless
There are now 9 members left of the millennials, 7 left of gen-x.

After the merge, one tribe will likely be 3 gen x, 5 millennial, the other will likely be 4 gen-x, 4 millennials. Also, the millennials have an idol. David's really going to wish he had his.

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
I think it was an interesting episode, not just because of the idol play, but because of the editing. When Lucy started getting more screentime, all the veteran watchers must pretty much have went, 'well she's going home'. And she did, but not because she was outplayed, but because of that unexpected idol play.

If Jessica had gone home, which should have been the foregone conclusion, would we have seen as much of Lucy this week or spent more time with Jessica talking head moments? Because they couldn't ignore all her pushiness towards Ken, but I don't know if we would have gotten as much tigermom explanations from her. Would she have been less invisible in the first three episodes?

We've had invisible characters gone home because of idol plays in the past, but virtually all of them were just after the merge, and they barely got screentime even in those episodes.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
I think Lucy pissed off a producer.



One promo picture is not like the others.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I don't think that gif really captured it but I did enjoy reading Jess' body language as she tried to navigate whether to trust Ken. Obviously she didn't 100% know Ken was telling the truth as she still voted out CC. But it was clear she was trying to wrap her mind around Ken just laying it all out there with nothing to hide. Ken isn't a very good advocate for himself but when he just flat out lays out the truth with no kind of manipulation or motive apparent its hard to dismiss it out of hand.

The real moment came when David used the idol on her and I think THAT's when her face said "Wait... what? Oh poo poo! You mean this was all true!?"

ApplesandOranges posted:

I think it was an interesting episode, not just because of the idol play, but because of the editing. When Lucy started getting more screentime, all the veteran watchers must pretty much have went, 'well she's going home'. And she did, but not because she was outplayed, but because of that unexpected idol play.

If Jessica had gone home, which should have been the foregone conclusion, would we have seen as much of Lucy this week or spent more time with Jessica talking head moments? Because they couldn't ignore all her pushiness towards Ken, but I don't know if we would have gotten as much tigermom explanations from her. Would she have been less invisible in the first three episodes?

We've had invisible characters gone home because of idol plays in the past, but virtually all of them were just after the merge, and they barely got screentime even in those episodes.

I assume we still would have gotten her siding back with the guys and against Jessica as the key to Jessica going home and her rubbing Ken the wrong way as the motivation for him trying to shake up the vote. We might have gotten a LITTLE less of her but she was genuinely pivotal to the tribe dynamics that episode.

Sometimes players are just legitimately not major factors in the game until they are. That seems like it kind of happened here where the leader of the tribe and the main alliance split and the dynamics of the tribe opened up. Lucy was pro-active and tried to move some pieces, and that had some consequences.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Oct 15, 2016

ApplesandOranges
Jun 22, 2012

Thankee kindly.
Yeah, when I saw this whole thing I just thought of Kimmi from Cambodia and how she was virtually nonexistent (save for voting out Monica) til final six, then she finally tried to pull something and we got the doozy of a TC.

I also saw it pointed out that by sheer coincidence, three of the four votes so far have all been Asian-American women.

Also, what are people's thoughts on Kaoh Rong and Michele as a winner now that several months have passed? I know there was a lot of backlash when it first hit, but while Michele wasn't my pick to win (Cydney was), I thought she did okay for a winner and people just got soured on her because of editing.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
Is it coincidence that minorities are knocked out early?

ApplesandOranges posted:

Also, what are people's thoughts on Kaoh Rong and Michele as a winner now that several months have passed? I know there was a lot of backlash when it first hit, but while Michele wasn't my pick to win (Cydney was), I thought she did okay for a winner and people just got soured on her because of editing.

I have no ill will toward Michelle. I think the jury made a bad choice and the editors made so much of all the other characters instead of trying to prop up Michelle that the season didn't make sense from a story telling perspective.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!
I was as livid as anybody at her win, but she did a nice long podcast with Rob C maybe a week or two after the finale, and it went a long ways towards making her win make more sense.

That said, the editors dropped the ball in a big way.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




Propaganda Machine posted:

I was as livid as anybody at her win, but she did a nice long podcast with Rob C maybe a week or two after the finale, and it went a long ways towards making her win make more sense.

I found that episode incredibly boring and checked out halfway into it.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

oh my god this was the worst idol play in history what

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Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
It's not the best use of an idol, but I wouldn't say it's the worst. He bought an ally at the very least.

A lot of idols get completely wasted.

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