|
Goaltending is random and stupid. Grubauer had a 922 last year. He's got an 880 this year. Imagine if Connor McDavid started scoring at a 50 point pace this year after what he did last year. Sounds crazy right? But that poo poo happens all the god damned time with goalies.
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 15:35
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 09:55 |
|
|
Dylan Larkin might have scored goals on shots in the 0th and 100th percentiles of xG in the same week https://twitter.com/RyanHanaWWP/status/1459723116008153088
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 16:02
|
|
|
tinstaach posted:Dylan Larkin might have scored goals on shots in the 0th and 100th percentiles of xG in the same week Both of his goals were ridiculous angles.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 16:09
|
|
|
the talent deficit posted:the kraken have gotten the worst goaltending in the league by 2 full percentage points. if they had simply gotten league average goaltending they'd have allowed a full goal less a game drat I wonder why that might be. *Checks up on Dave Hakstol's career history as a head coach* well on the one hand it's Philly goaltending so pure chaos incarnate. First year - .920 combined GSAA 12 and better than league average. This is followed up by .905, -19 GSAA, and well below NHL average level goaltending. This is followed up somewhat by a bit of a carousel of a year using 4 goalies who combined post a .907, -14 GSAA, and a slight improvement however still sub League Average. '18-19 is Hak's last year in Philly and boy (sorry FAS) was it sure a year. The Great Flyers Goalie Dumpster Tire Fire is well and truely lit. Even with Hart showing up late in the season and posting very good numbers the team ends with a combined .900 sv%, -26.2 GSAA (-33 if you remove Hart), and a well below NHL level average goaltending. To finish the Flyers thought....they were an utter disaster last year somehow getting even worse than Hak's final year. But, they appear to have done some voodoo and now have some of the best goaltending so far this year.  Goalies!SOOOOOOoooooo why all of a sudden has Grubs cratered? For one Grubauer has played 12 of the 15 games so far for Seattle this year. That puts him on pace for 65 to 66 games this season. He keeps getting played 'cause the other 2 goalies have somehow sucked more poo poo. Combined Seattle is receiving .873 sv% in all situations. They aren't just not getting well below NHL average goaltending.....they're getting ECHL level goaltending. But why? Dave Hakstol runs a lovely college level zone scheme that creates gigantic holes in their zone coverages and their rush coverage has been extremely poor. Dave Hakstol has a demonstrated record (caveat it was in Philly) of receiving extremely poor goaltending performances over multiple seasons. Unlike in Philly, Seattle's extremely poor drafting did not provide either the talent or capability to cover this up these deficiencies through extremely smart and capable player nor offensively talented ones that could outscore the flaws. Because of Hakstol's inability to have his team keep structure or that structure is picked apart so easily they end up in scramble mode a lot. This means that instead of pucks coming from expected areas where the goalie can get set and anticipate where to be they constantly have to keep guessing. Even when a puck comes from low to high...if it's the type of breakdown that's come on in the system usually the goalie can account for it (high danger shot 15% conversion rate) and position such that they'll make the stop far more often than not. The huge glaring sv%s that stick out to me though with Grubauer is that he is putting up .741 and .857 on High Danger and Medium Danger shots (5v5 per Nat Stats counting). As mentioned you're looking at .850 for 'league' average on HDs and .900 on Medium Dangers. Daccord and Driedger post somewhat similar numbers (much much smaller sample size). If all three of your goalies are putting up similar numbers for similar shots then either all your goalies suck poo poo (possible) or there is a huge glaring systems problem that teams know they can take advantage of leading to a much higher than expected shooting % against. The final thing I wanted to touch on before tl;dr SHUT THE gently caress UP REX JESUS gently caress. The all powerful spreadsheet stats. YES!!!! Seattle seems to have turned around their chance splits to about a 52% split at 5v5. This is of course sunk by goaltending in the standings, but we're not focusing on that anymore. Seattle has a very good High Danger chance split! 55% which is top 5 and even with the Penguins. Behind CO, Tampa, and...the Devils? Sure why not! They are however extremely low event. With 10.3 HDs per 60 they're bottom half of the league next to the Isles, Sabres and Flyers. That said they only give up 8.41 per 60 which is the absolutely best in the league. Where the Kraken fall down is low and mid dangers. They're coin flip or slightly better where say the Pens give up more mid dangers (but that's to dominate both high danger and low danger opportunities to the tune of 55%+ splits). Where the Kraken seem to falter is that they score 1.15 high danger goal per 60 minutes with a 14.3% shooting in those situations. So the shooting is roughly bang average, but for 10 HD you're expected to have ~1.5 goals for (give or take). That means Seattle is either creating these chances and not getting shots off or when they do they're blocked. That screams talent deficiency to me. Mid Dangers are put away at exactly the rate and shooting % you would expect to see so that's good! Low Dangers are scored below the rate you'd hope for, but not dire levels so that's just a for me.TL;DR SHUT UP REX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Seattle's goaltending problem seems to stem (in my completely unprofessional opinion) direction from Dave Hakestol....a coach with a demonstrated (albeit only 1 team of data) record of poor to extremely poor goaltending outcomes. During Dave's Flyers years this deficiency was overcome (somewhat) via scoring talent. Seattle choice to draft nothing a few 2nd'ish line players, grinders, and as little scoring talent as possible has not helped the situation since it means they can not outscore their deficiencies. IF Seattle is going to turn it around IMO they need to do the FAS thing and FIRE DAVE HAKSTOL.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 16:16
|
|
|
Hakstol aside I still do not understand many of the draft choices that Francis made. They could have had a dominant team but chose to go for cap space and youth in many cases.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 16:18
|
|
|
Powershift posted:Rem Pitlick's first 3 career NHL goals were a natural hat trick. They were very fun to watch.  The second and third were breakaways where he split the D like he was walking a North Dakota team like a good Minnesota guy. And then he used the same move twice on Grubauer to bury 2 and 3. Edit: Also, thank you Rex for typing out what I was telling my kid about during the game last night. It looked incredibly how stagnant Hackstol’s tactics have been since 20 years ago.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 16:26
|
|
|
Ginette Reno posted:Hakstol aside I still do not understand many of the draft choices that Francis made. They could have had a dominant team but chose to go for cap space and youth in many cases. Just  that they left Tarasenko on the tableWho needs a dominant ppg winger
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 16:32
|
|
|
Good Soldier Svejk posted:Just Yeah Tarasenko easily could have been their veteran goal scoring winger like Neal was for Vegas. Hell, take a flyer on Matt Duchene’s bad contract for some centre depth. Or draft Max Domi over Gavin Bayreuther. JVR or Voracek could have also been nice options instead of Carson Tarwynski. So dumb Drafting 38 year old Gio and naming him the captain instead of trading him…lol
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 16:59
|
|
|
Ginette Reno posted:Goaltending is random and stupid. Grubauer had a 922 last year. He's got an 880 this year. Imagine if Connor McDavid started scoring at a 50 point pace this year after what he did last year. Sounds crazy right? But that poo poo happens all the god damned time with goalies. I think it's important to remember that a goalie's stats are heavily influenced by the team in front of them.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 17:06
|
|
|
The Dirty Burger posted:Yeah Tarasenko easily could have been their veteran goal scoring winger like Neal was for Vegas. Hell, take a flyer on Matt Duchene’s bad contract for some centre depth. Or draft Max Domi over Gavin Bayreuther. JVR or Voracek could have also been nice options instead of Carson Tarwynski. So dumb And even if they wanted to build a prospect pipeline, any of those guys with a few million retained is easily worth a 1st rounder to a contender come the deadline or some hopefuls in the offseason. Picking and holding on to middling players was just hilariously misguided strategy
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 17:10
|
|
|
Good Soldier Svejk posted:Just He's definitely who I'd take in the video game version of the draft, but it's also worth remembering Tarasenko was a big question mark healthwise. Vince Dunn also seemed like a solid pick as a young mobile d-man who can play the PP1. He hasn't really panned out that way, but it's hard to know how much of that is Hakstol and their 10.9% powerplay. Not defending their horrible strategy at all, but at least for the St. Louis pick there is a certain logic there.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 17:22
|
|
|
Ginette Reno posted:Hakstol aside I still do not understand many of the draft choices that Francis made. They could have had a dominant team but chose to go for cap space and youth in many cases. Why win now when you could maybe win later? Aside from the "lol no trades" the weirdest thing to me was the selections they made clearly with no plan in mind. Kurtis MacDermid who they took from the Kings, then dumped to the Avs for a 4th round pick in 2023 a few weeks later. Tyler Pitlick who they took from the Coyotes and again traded to the Flames for a 4th rounder. Vitek Vanacek who they took from Washington, then signed Grubauer and traded him back to them for a 2nd. Dennis Cholowski was selected from the Wings, then lost on Waivers. Kole Lind, Cale Fleury and Carsen Twarynski were all selected then waived and assigned to the minors without giving them any sort of chance. Worst of all were Gavin Bayreuther and John Quenneville who were selected, and then Seattle made literally no attempt to sign them and let them walk as free agents. They selected 30 players and just 19 have appeared in a game for them so far. What was the point of that draft? What was their plan? ThinkTank fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Nov 14, 2021 |
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 17:25
|
|
|
Like, I get that Gio is still decent, but I was not sad to see him go. He is very much on the decline and it let someone like Kylington into the lineup. Calgary wasted the opportunity by paying Zadorov almost 4 mil to stink up our 3rd pairing, but well, can’t win ‘em all.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 17:32
|
|
|
Ginette Reno posted:Hakstol aside I still do not understand many of the draft choices that Francis made. They could have had a dominant team but chose to go for cap space and youth in many cases. All that cap space to then not sign any high quality UFAs or make trades and take on some cap dump but good/useful players. Or as mentioned they could have done the pipeline thing with lower mid 20s RFAs in say a Mathieu Joseph springing immediately to mind or done that with some expiring higher dollar UFA rentals to then turn into picks/prospects/more RFA cost controlled contributors that could still play decent hockey and meet any 'internal' cap restrictions (if they existed you). That isn't to say someone was going to just handover 2 top 6 players *cough* Florida *cough* but even outside some of the absolute albatross contracts available I'm sure there were trades available for guys that make 4 to 6 per for a few more years and aren't quite as effective as they once were. Or Jeff Skinner.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 17:46
|
|
|
Max Domi seemed like an absolute no brainer selection to me but they opted to go for Gavin Bayreuther (who they did not attempt to sign) instead.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 17:51
|
|
|
ThinkTank posted:Max Domi seemed like an absolute no brainer selection to me but they opted to go for Gavin Bayreuther (who they did not attempt to sign) instead. Worst case scenario Domi sucks so bad this year for the Kraken nobody wants him at the deadline and he leaves as a UFA for nothing. Genuinely curious what the deal with Bayreuther was
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 17:59
|
|
|
jonesing to see the canucks get dunked on again for 7 goals tonight
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 18:02
|
|
|
Also instead of picking Vlad Namestnikov (currently sitting at 7-2-9 in 16 games) from Detroit, the Kraken picked Dennis Cholowski (currently sitting in the press box - for Washington, because they waived him after the preseason)
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 18:05
|
|
|
I am by no means a hockey expert but having watched a lot of Kraken games in person, I notice when on the attack, a lot of the players when they get pressured by the defense, just flick the puck to the opposite side wall to slide behind goal in hopes of something developing (is there a technical term for this? Feels like there has to be). Some of the better players like Gourde and Eberle have confidence in their skating and tend to hold on or pass. It seemed pretty evident last night, at least. I know their drafting strategy was nothing like Vegas, and they went young & cheap as opposed to building to win now. But they were still projected to make the playoffs and lol they are not making the playoffs with this performance.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 18:07
|
|
|
Dump and chase, at least when it's trying to enter the zone
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 18:10
|
|
|
JawKnee posted:jonesing to see the canucks get dunked on again for 7 goals tonight Ditto, but you know they're gonna win 5-1 and that'll apparently be enough for some folks to delude themselves into thinking they've found their footing again
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 18:25
|
|
|
though if they're already on the wall/in the corner and just passing it to no man's land that's a desperation move that's indicative that they don't have a strategy or whatever the hell they were trying to do didn't work out
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 18:28
|
|
|
Koopa Kid posted:N: Leafs win despite starting a rookie goalie that isn’t even passable in the AHL Sabres outplayed the Leafs for most of that game.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 18:52
|
|
|
seiferguy posted:I am by no means a hockey expert but having watched a lot of Kraken games in person, I notice when on the attack, a lot of the players when they get pressured by the defense, just flick the puck to the opposite side wall to slide behind goal in hopes of something developing (is there a technical term for this? Feels like there has to be). Some of the better players like Gourde and Eberle have confidence in their skating and tend to hold on or pass. Their zone entries are terrible, and last night was really bad about it until the last 10-15 minutes of the game when Minnesota started taking tripping calls. And then as soon as the PP was over they were back to chipping it in and chasing. Not always bad, but the forecheck was abysmal and you'd have a Wild D pick it up and they'd make 3-4 passes and be at the other blue line. The neutral zone coverage is really damning, and they leave lanes and the far side wide open. They're backing in like they're on the penalty kill with an extra skater high, and without puck pressure the E-W passes were really easy. And still very little cycle game or positive possession down low. They just kick it high and their D will either shoot it in without traffic in front or they dump it back into the corner instead of making a pass to someone. Re: Vince Dunn, I don't think he's necessarily that bad. At least he's looked good on the pairings with Soucy. I just think it's going to take another 5-10 games before they play great together. He won't be the best D in the world, but they still should have taken the chance on Tarasenko instead. E: And if you were at the game last night, that was my kid's team on the ice at 1st intermission. They're having fun and learning a lot this year. It was the talk of the locker room before their game this morning too. Jhet fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Nov 14, 2021 |
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 18:58
|
|
|
ThinkTank posted:Why win now when you could maybe win later? Yeah this is the real issue. I can understand nobody wanted to deal and they didn’t want to to weigh themselves down the larger contracts that could go bad. Also cap flexibility is very valuable. But if the alternative is to select players that will literally walk for free- you might as well risk the cap space on Tarasenko, Domi, Voracek etc. Every picked seemed to be made with zero fore-thought. They seemed to have given up on the entire idea of the expansion draft but I don’t see them being able to build a solid prospect pipeline with no valuable pieces to move, no incentive to draw players to the team, and no prospect pool to begin with. So many bizarre decisions.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 18:59
|
|
|
Firing Hakstol won't change anything, Francis will just pick a similarly incompetent coach to replace him. Seattle isn't going to stop being bad until they fire Francis, who it's painfully obvious is way out of his depth. I always liked Ron Francis as a player, but as a GM he has no clue what he's doing.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 19:00
|
|
|
Jhet posted:E: And if you were at the game last night, that was my kid's team on the ice at 1st intermission. They're having fun and learning a lot this year. It was the talk of the locker room before their game this morning too. My fiancée called them the highlight of the night and I'd have to agree 
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 19:21
|
|
|
seiferguy posted:My fiancée called them the highlight of the night and I'd have to agree It was right up there with Pitlick’s hat trick in our house. Maybe in a few years the Kraken can win us over, but starting with Hakstol is a non-starter for anyone who went to the University of Minnesota in the 00’s. Also, they’re just not fun to watch. They chase the puck, and their system looks a lot like North Dakota from 15 years ago. Worked fine on the big sheet of ice with less talented opposition, and I can’t really believe he’s still using it. I think I’ll just go to more WHL games instead. The Kraken youth program is okay to start, but we went with the established program and are very happy with their structure.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 19:36
|
|
|
The Dirty Burger posted:Worst case scenario Domi sucks so bad this year for the Kraken nobody wants him at the deadline and he leaves as a UFA for nothing. Genuinely curious what the deal with Bayreuther was No idea, but it was confirmed there were no side deals in place to protect anyone else on Columbus's roster. e- quote:Meanwhile, Blue Jackets prospect forward Kent Johnson continues to light it up at Michigan. Following a weekend sweep of Penn State, Johnson has an eight-game point streak, totaling 3-12-15 in that stretch. He was the No. 5 overall selection last summer. 12GP 4-16-20 at Michigan this year. Holy poo poo, if he can translate something similar to the NHL and Johnson-Sillinger becomes a solid 1-2 punch at center just over a year after they were both taken...  CBJSprague24 fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Nov 14, 2021 |
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 19:44
|
|
|
clean ayers act posted:I think i found the issue Should have never delt Lehner
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 21:00
|
|
|
While it's better than just going by raw sv% I think that chart goes a long way toward the point of rex's nerdpost, that EGA+/- is pretty flawed in that you cannot actually put a whole bunch of shots in the High Danger Chances box and pretend they're equal. Some teams are systematically terrible at defense in ways that aren't easy to statistically capture in any finer detail than Goals Allowed. There's also the problem that goalies are fickle creatures and a run of goals allowed due to bad defense and mostly not the goalie's fault can kill his confidence and then you get a run of goals allowed that are the goalie's fault, and it's not easy to distinguish. But IMO this happened with Jarry last year. Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Nov 14, 2021 |
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 21:08
|
|
|
I’m actively rooting for the Ducks to pump the Canucks tonight because, yet again, I’m choosing to believe that will be the last straw for Jim Benning*. Also fire Green too. This team should not be this bad. *It won’t be.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 22:33
|
|
|
Wippersnapper posted:I’m actively rooting for the Ducks to pump the Canucks tonight because, yet again, I’m choosing to believe that will be the last straw for Jim Benning*. Also fire Green too. This team should not be this bad. It'll never happen, don't get your hopes up.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 23:00
|
|
|
Drake Batherson was ruled out of Ottawa's game last night due to COVID protocol, was a last-minute re-addition to the lineup, got 4 points, and is now out of tonight's game due to COVID protocol. It all just seems so performative by the league. If COVID is a concern to the league, why have they been letting Ottawa continue to play games with half their roster out ill, and players continuing to test positive the day after games?
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 23:07
|
|
|
Wippersnapper posted:I’m actively rooting for the Ducks to pump the Canucks tonight because, yet again, I’m choosing to believe that will be the last straw for Jim Benning*. Also fire Green too. This team should not be this bad. “Well we were going to fire benning for the back to back 7 pointers, but then the Canucks won 2-1 in overtime so we’re re-signing him for 10 more years. He really turned things around “
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 23:08
|
|
|
Eric the Mauve posted:While it's better than just going by raw sv% I think that chart goes a long way toward the point of rex's nerdpost, that EGA+/- is pretty flawed in that you cannot actually put a whole bunch of shots in the High Danger Chances box and pretend they're equal. Some teams are systematically terrible at defense in ways that aren't easy to statistically capture in any finer detail than Goals Allowed. Carter Hart is the supreme example IMO.
|
|
#
?
Nov 14, 2021 23:43
|
|
|
Cap circumvention! He can wear his gear after all! https://twitter.com/HockeyHallFame/status/1460019700591697926?t=i18GVokcdBXSoAarfPabUw&s=19
|
|
#
?
Nov 15, 2021 00:29
|
|
|
Krime posted:Cap circumvention! he's clearly in a lot of itchy pain here
|
|
#
?
Nov 15, 2021 01:17
|
|
|
my son is following in my miserable footsteps and has basically stolen my Bob Boughner Blasty jersey. I want it back so I'm going to get him a Mangianpane one but goddamn if I can figure out where to order one from. has anyone used reverse retro online? is it as lovely as it looks?
|
|
#
?
Nov 15, 2021 01:59
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 30, 2024 09:55 |
|
|
The Pittsburgh Penguins looked like week old dog poo poo after it got eaten by said dog then vomited onto the front porch. loving embarrassing and pedestrian effort. Jarry is beaten far too easily shortside on the first goal which BONUS POINTS was also a shorty. Phenomenal execution. Outside of that though it's nothing but zone breakdowns and lost coverages with Jarry also not making saves, but tbh other than the first goal it's all completely open east/west passes in tight. Good luck with that bud. Dominik Simon and Drew O'Connor are putting up actual real tangible points.....both are top 5 in points per 60 for the Penguins while have excellent expected outcome values. Both have boatloads of speed and can play that style that won Sullivan back to back cups. HOPE YOU LIKE THE PRESS BOX BITCHES!!!!!!!!! Brian Boyle shouldn't be in the line up when you have productive players like that. Kapanen shouldn't be in the top 6 BUT TO TOP THAT OFF he's outproducing Jason Zucker on a per 60 basis. Heinen...super productive to start the year. Welcome to the 4th line you dunce. For tonight Sid looked old and slow. Dumo should not have been anywhere near the lineup tonight. He was awful. Looked slow and his decision making was...well.....lets just hope it isn't long covid. My huge takeaway so far is after looking extremely good for the first 3 games (the Panthers game was iffy)...the Pens were outplayed and lucky to get a point against Dallas....extremely lucky in that game against Toronto, but created their own luck. Then Vasi won the game for Tampa and outplayed Jarry for that win. Calgary absolutely dumpstered the Pens which was, to date, the worst performance of the season until tonight. Otherwise a couple of loser points...throwing a charity point to Philly for no good reason and then throwing a regulation win away to Minny. This team has big problems that need to get sorted fast otherwise just torch the whole thing down. Anyways, if you liked my big dumb gently caress book with my thoughts on Seattle I've done a bit of playing around a 'What could have been' kind of deal in regards to their drafting approach and guess I'll be working on that now.
|
|
#
?
Nov 15, 2021 03:52
|
|