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Agronox posted:Anyone doing anything of note now that debt ceiling shenanigans are starting to come into full focus? I put on some index shorts but haven't actually sold any of my longs. Complete and utter carrywhore reporting in. This is the least short volatility I've been in well over a year. Just took a tiny nibble on a VX short today but we are still talking a fraction of my normal size. R/R seems poor right now to be doing much with leverage. Too much headline risk right now, I won't be sizably short vol again until 1) Debt ceiling talks resolve OR 2) Vol moves substantially higher (Vx futures backwardation, VIX 30+) My core portfolio remains net long.
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May 24, 2023 04:16
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huh hadn't seen this, apparently robinhood is going to offer 24/5 trading makes sense, the most lucrative casinos are all open 24 hours a day. why turn away sleep deprived retail traders?
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May 24, 2023 19:31
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Nvidia jumped $100 after hour (25%) on earnings beat. Crazy.
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May 24, 2023 23:12
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My AMD calls have been bananas over the past 6 months. Going to report out soon...
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May 24, 2023 23:17
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ackman going full  on icahn, haha. payback for herbalife. long tweet: https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1661464270255603713?s=20
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May 24, 2023 23:36
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Nvidia jumped $100 after hour (25%) on earnings beat. Crazy. JPow, the market demands another 5% increase in interest rates
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May 25, 2023 00:30
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Subvisual Haze posted:JPow, the market demands another 5% increase in interest rates a lot of banks had huge bearish options flow today (C, usbank) and JETS the other day as well. It seems clear tech is maybe not going to exactly follow the rest of the market. Spy didn't even budge from NVDA.
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May 25, 2023 01:10
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Nvidia jumped $100 after hour (25%) on earnings beat. Crazy. 🤡🤡🤡
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May 25, 2023 05:47
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nvda about 400 premarket. assuming it meets 2q guide and has > 100% yoy revenue gains in each of 3q and 4q (12 and 13b), that its price declines to 380 at end of 4q, and share count is constant, its TTM p/s would be like 22 at end of its current fiscal year. with super tough comps coming up. they basically need to maintain startup level growth rates for years. i find it kind of nuts but i also own a nvidia card, use nvidia cards for ML at work, and there is no viable alternative. at a time when every major govt in the world is pouring a firehose of money into the space. can’t be long at this price, but also can’t be short on a great company when actual shitcos exist out there to short it’ll probably go up another 10% next q on another crazy guide because why not
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May 25, 2023 14:05
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It's a good company but its stock is a mini-bubble on top of the market bubble. So it's a stay-away IMO.
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May 25, 2023 14:27
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FistEnergy posted:It's a good company but its stock is a mini-bubble on top of the market bubble. So it's a stay-away IMO. My cost-basis in NVDA goes back to 2019. Long-term hold for me, but today was a good day to cut some loose.
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May 25, 2023 16:55
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Is the better investments in other companies around in the space as they ramp up to try to be in a position to be any sort of alternative product to Nvidia? As you say right now Nvidia the only game in town, but people are working hard to position themselves to be other options. AMD the obvious one already signalling that they're working hard on this (and they moved up with this Nvidia news). Anyone else?
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May 25, 2023 21:41
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$200 billion of market cap added in one day. per ZeroHedge "NVDA added more market cap today than the total market cap of 472 of 500 S&P companies". Good company, wildly overpriced. Way too dangerous to short though.
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May 25, 2023 21:44
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Femtosecond posted:Is the better investments in other companies around in the space as they ramp up to try to be in a position to be any sort of alternative product to Nvidia? Intel is working (slowly) on it.
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May 25, 2023 22:19
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Microsoft made a huge potentoal investment in AI for amd. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/05/04/did-microsoft-and-its-ai-ambitions-just-throw-amd/
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May 25, 2023 22:22
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Right after their lovely earnings and right before that announcement is when I bought my LEAPs that I just sold for half a mil
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May 25, 2023 22:28
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Garfu posted:Right after their lovely earnings and right before that announcement is when I bought my LEAPs that I just sold for half a mil Congrats! 
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May 26, 2023 00:51
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:Certainly, but this is something that I think is going to happen on the scale of a decade and it's the kind of thing that is going to be extremely hard to reverse. Windows has been experiencing this basically since Windows 7 and I expect Windows' position as the dominant desktop OS to be in question come 2035, with no real route to reclaim that unless they pull their head out of their asses. Who do you feel is taking MS in the computer space as no business software really like Mac or Android.
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May 26, 2023 02:09
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sbaldrick posted:Who do you feel is taking MS in the computer space as no business software really like Mac or Android. A lot of business software now runs on cloud or colocated servers with users interacting with it on a web interface. Even microsoft itself is going along with this by going all in on azure.
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May 26, 2023 04:02
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All my money is on T bills. How hosed am I and how would it be resolved if the debt ceiling is hit?
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May 26, 2023 11:26
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orange sky posted:All my money is on T bills. How hosed am I and how would it be resolved if the debt ceiling is hit? Most likely, the interest would accrue as a debt and you would be backpaid after the ceiling is resolved.
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May 26, 2023 13:31
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Just don't sell at a loss over the next few weeks if anything goes wrong. It'll more than likely return to it's correct level eventually.
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May 26, 2023 13:39
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Cool, thanks!
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May 26, 2023 16:19
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I'm kind of confused about why BUD and TGT are dropping as much as they are with the stupid chud 'boycotts'. Is there really that much selling pressure from what I would imagine to be a small segment of retail shareholders? And/or are bigger shareholders/firms selling based on declines in future ERs? I guess I don't quite understand how the price can be impacted like this.
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May 30, 2023 19:16
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Fireside Nut posted:I'm kind of confused about why BUD and TGT are dropping as much as they are with the stupid chud 'boycotts'. Is there really that much selling pressure from what I would imagine to be a small segment of retail shareholders? And/or are bigger shareholders/firms selling based on declines in future ERs? I guess I don't quite understand how the price can be impacted like this. My opinion: The term I learned was "market emotion": basically, if enough institutions buy into the bullshit, then the price moves even if there's nothing rational to back it up. Another example, in the other direction: over the past couple of weeks, semiconductors went flying up because of a market emotion about OpenAI and ChatGPT. Once the news media is done talking poo poo, it'll bounce back (unless there became some legitimate reason for the movement to back it up).
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May 30, 2023 19:37
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BUD was trading in the 40s not long before the failed advertising campaign. Stocks go up and down sometimes.
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May 30, 2023 19:38
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The BUD Puts I bought a month ago have tripled in value. Please keep working your magic angry chud consumers.
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May 30, 2023 21:18
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People hear there’s a boycott of a company, they make moves based on the idea the stock will drop, which causes it to drop for a bit. Probably a good time to buy if you can see a month in the future and know the boycott will have blown over.
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May 30, 2023 23:02
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I bought a few TGT today and if it drops to 125 I'll buy a few more.
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May 30, 2023 23:06
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The default null hypothesis is always "it's random, stocks randomly go up and down for no apparent reason". Could even be the correct answer. I think the winds might be changing though. Traditionally the right has been utterly incapable of boycotting, probably some combination of lack of organization plus their leaders largely being big business shills and thus ideologically anti-boycott. Maybe that's changing recently though? Social media is a powerful organizing force, and who knows how Elon's twitter algo might be subtly favoring certain topics. And success can breed success with regards to boycotts. We won't see any updated earnings until August, but at least with $BUD there are some reports that sales of Bud Lite are down 20-30% relative to this point last year, with maybe 10% decrease to some of their other brands. Whether that boycott loss will be sustained, and how that translates to total hit to $BUD earnings, who knows. If nothing else, the range of $BUD over the last year has been $45-$66 per share. So a dip from $66 a month ago to $55 now could definitely be seen as just a mean reversion.
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May 30, 2023 23:41
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Are conservatives still boycotting the NFL?
Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 04:42 on May 31, 2023 |
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May 31, 2023 04:39
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Shear Modulus posted:Are conservatives still boycotting the NFL? I don't think their attention span is that long tbh.
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May 31, 2023 05:02
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Shear Modulus posted:Are conservatives still boycotting the NFL? I think they like to claim it but can’t actually do it.
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May 31, 2023 07:57
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https://www.axios.com/2023/05/31/anti-woke-movement-spac-investment-publicsq-targetquote:Want to invest in the right-wing blowback to corporate diversity, equity and inclusion efforts? There's a SPAC for that.
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May 31, 2023 17:25
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a new spac offering in the year of our lord 2023? someone missed the memo about the current interest rate
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May 31, 2023 19:31
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CLBR Are there any other blank check companies out there right now? Weird place to park $200mm right now but ok
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May 31, 2023 19:44
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If Blake Masters is involved one would assume Peter Thiel is.
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May 31, 2023 20:24
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Hadlock posted:CLBR I think there's still a few hundred out there, yeah. But the rate at which they're hitting liquidation deadlines exceeds that at which they're IPOing.
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May 31, 2023 22:06
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Conservatives never shopped at target anyway. It was always the kerry voter version of walmart.
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May 31, 2023 22:24
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Bought TGT last week at $138.95 because I mis-timed the market emotion. Dollar cost averaging is like a coping mantra at this point.
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Jun 1, 2023 00:30
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