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Opopanax posted:No part of my role should protect me from a vig
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Mar 11, 2024 02:26
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| # ? Jun 12, 2024 04:43 |
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i think opop is unlikely to be lying about that, because i don't understand what the motivation would be. it would be easier to just claim bulletproof and the fact that he didn't take that obvious out to lie about having a townie role makes me trust him a little more
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Mar 11, 2024 02:27
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Either way there was a reason the vig failed, which is an outstanding mystery. Are we concerned about outing a day-doc or something? Or are we down to theorize?
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Mar 11, 2024 02:32
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there are basically four possibilities, now that i think about it: 1. dans is lying. very unlikely, because very few roles occur to me other than vig that could cause an on-demand 'nothing happened' with a day action. that action wording also matches up with a vig given this flavor 2. opop is lying. possible but the motivation seems sketchy 3. both are lying and that was a scum gambit. also very unlikely for the same reason as 1. 4. shenanigans, non-obvious reason why it failed and both are telling the truth i think 4 is the most likely case here, and if they're both telling the truth then dans seems quite townie and opop seems slightly townie for the stated reason
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Mar 11, 2024 02:32
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Clearing Opop purely on setup spec is frustrating. Scum can even be BP too. I see what you're saying about why wouldn't he just claim BP, but idk Opop's scum style some people are just afraid to lie
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Mar 11, 2024 02:35
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Johnny Keats posted:Either way there was a reason the vig failed, which is an outstanding mystery. Are we concerned about outing a day-doc or something? Or are we down to theorize? Oh now that's some classic scum posting ##vote keats "hey guys do you want to get bogged down in hypotheticals with me" is one of my go tos
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Mar 11, 2024 02:38
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Okay OMGUS
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Mar 11, 2024 02:38
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Dans Macabre posted:When will I get to experience the famous cube spreadsheet Whenever the night action bingo starts, probably D3 if I'm alive, maybe late D2.
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Mar 11, 2024 02:58
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also although im not sure i agree that this is scum keats (because keats seems like exactly the personality type that would want to speculate about what exactly happened), i agree that speculating about what did occur beyond 'it was probably shenanigans' is likely to be fruitless at this time my kneejerk susses atm are RWC and cube on the basis that both were willing to jump on both the maerlyn train, a bad case, and on the wins train, a town flip. I think the deal yesterday was that everyone being pushed was town. except for possibly grandicap; i don't have a strong read on him, and votes went onto both wins and maerlyn more easily than they did him ##vote RWC, cube voted wins way earlier before the train started leaving the station
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Mar 11, 2024 03:02
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I jumped on the wins train 20 minutes before the deadline because I have learned to place my vote before I go eat the burrito, in case I get distracted.
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Mar 11, 2024 03:27
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This is a salad game and I have seen them give people false leading day actions before
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Mar 11, 2024 03:27
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Scum suspects: Opop: I just think the not knowing why he lived sounds BS and the vote on keats looks bad to me. In fact ##vote Opop Fancy: is making zero effort to find scum. This is my 3rd game with them and the lack of posting is reading like not knowing how to engage. Grandi: I appreciate the dream case and that he has limited time to play, but his play fits as scum. Could be. I would vote RWC for the weird hammer but not sure about her overall.
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Mar 11, 2024 03:57
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votefinder posted:
First vote on wins happened via shark at 7:47. An hour 10 before deadline. Shark had voted here a bit earlier, along with Cube, and Keats at various points, but at this point, he was first on board. Nothing happens until Cube, then TM, then Dans, then shwinn vote him between 8:27 and 8:33, taking this from a single vote to 5. And it doesn't slow. Yuming and fool vote at 8:35 & 8:36, and RWC hammers at 8:36. It goes from 1 vote to 8 votes in 9 minutes. It was such a groundswell for literally no case from any of the voters. Shark's earlier post is sharkmafia posted:i could vote wins, he's currently doing his best impression of a potted plant after dropping a vote on maer, who i don't think is particularly scummy. Everything else is an empty vote. So, was this scum trying to derail an execution on someone else? I don't see it there because Maer ended with 2 votes, RWC and Cube hopped off of her to go to wins. Opop ended with 1, but was derailed by the failed vig... was this the hopeful scumsecution and they had to scramble when the vig blew the wind the other way. If Maer was scum, there had been talk about her all day in some aspect or another, when wins gained traction did they just hop on to save her? If so, why wasn't Maer on the train too? And Cube and RWC hopped off of her too, and those are 2 names that I would throw in the vaguely scumbucket. The whole way the execution went down is confusing to me. I'm looking for a pattern but am not seeing it. I refuse to believe that scum wasn't involved, but I can't see them as a driver, that kind of groundswell can only happen by accident. I can see a scum or 2 getting caught up in it, but I don't feel like it was engineered. Especially since there is not really a clear picture of who they were trying to save. I think shark's vote looks the best. I think RWC looks the worst, but she voted at the same time as Fool, so she might not have known it was going to be hammer, and burrito problems. I was hoping this analysis was going to provide clarity, but it didn't.
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Mar 11, 2024 03:59
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wins32767 was actually town, I can't believe you all.
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yuming posted:Scum suspects: I think my limited time to play is ending. I should be able to engage more this week. 
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Mar 11, 2024 04:00
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Like reading day start in like aaaaaggh Opop is so scummy. But I can’t articulate my case so I’m just going to see where this day takes us. HEY FANCY WHO IS A SCUM?
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Mar 11, 2024 04:01
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I agree with Grandis vote analysis there. That vote train doesn’t have much to dig into, it was like scums perfect D1. That’s why I’m feeling my Opop vote and want to hear from Fancy. Scum perspective D1 was things were smooth sailing so no need to stick their neck out anywhere. That keats vote is overselling it’s really bad.
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Mar 11, 2024 04:07
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I don't think scum can resist using their vote to benefit their own team, as long as it wouldn't make them immediately suspicious. In day 1 this applies the most, because from a scum perspective it should feel very easy to avoid suspicion for voting a town player on day 1. Further, they would be more attracted to a sudden swerve on town than in a vote that has history, so regardless of the alignments of Maer and Opop, I see scum wanting that to happen more than one of those two to be put over the edge. Maer snd Opop were at -5 which is not scary, so I don't think we can even assume scum was worried if they were *both* scum. This I say to put in perspective where our information lies. I think there was unfortunately little cause for scum to act rashly, even if both Maer and Opop are scum, but in all cases scum would be the most attracted to the Wins swerve
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Mar 11, 2024 04:19
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yuming posted:Scum suspects: If you look at the timing, my vote came one minute after yours and the same minute as FOS, it is loving rude to call it a "weird hammer." At the time I actually typed it, it didn't look like a hammer vote to me at all.
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Mar 11, 2024 04:34
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I can still see Opop and Maer as scum/scum wagons D1. The failed vig makes me think Dans is likely town, but the fact that Opop didn't actually get thrown out means nothing to me as to whether he's scum. The only sure thing I guess is that was not a fake day action. Just one that didn't work.
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Mar 11, 2024 04:36
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Rhymes With Clue posted:What can happen in 20 minutes? Use the preview reply at that time of game-day.
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Mar 11, 2024 04:38
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yuming posted:It is a weird hammer, because it’s got the self conscious tag on and ended the day. Well now you tell me.
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Mar 11, 2024 04:45
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I agree with Grandi's thoughts on the vote; I don't see Cube starting a known mis-ex as scum but I think there's a scum or two in the middle TM looks worse to me for this that Cube pointed out: CubicalSucrose posted:Yeah I'd rather vote wins too but there wasn't really anyone else on board with that. Except...TMor? Who didn't even vote wins. Earlier TM said he wanted to kill wins as a vibe check (what does that even mean?) but didn't vote him until closer to deadline which looks like distancing from a bad vote ##vote TM His behavior yesterday was also weird, I want to flip him
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Mar 11, 2024 05:06
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I could see voting for Opop or Sand, both give me light scum pings (Sand is lurking, Opop feels kinda disengaged vaguely.... It's hard to define) I'm not opposed to a Fancy vote but I feel like that's less likely to result in scum, the last game I played in Fancy got booted D1 because of just their behavior/lurking and were town
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Mar 11, 2024 05:11
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Grandi is town, I feel like I've got a good read on him in this game Cube and dans - lean town Yuming - null, rereading her and Opop tomorrow to see if that changes my read of them Null on fool and shark too atm
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Mar 11, 2024 05:15
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Maerlyn posted:fool you focused on grandi quite a bit D1, do you have any other thoughts on who might be scum? My thoughts on the end of day vote rush are that EITHER 1) scum were afraid that a deadline panic would land on you/opop, in which case scum would be in the first couple wins votes to try to push them ahead for those last minute nolunch avoidance OR 2) the wins votes happened organically from town because of the general lack of consensus and dwindling time, in which case scum would prefer to not join the vote if they weren't already part of it. considering how fast the momentum built at the end so, to that end: in scenario 1 shark cube mortiz, in scenario 2 opop, keats, sand, grandi, and you. I have an uneasy feeling about your boosting of grandi today alongside of both being candidates in scenario 2, plus my lasting suspicion from day 1 on grandi. I think it's pretty possible that you and grandi are scumbuds.
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Mar 11, 2024 05:40
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I do no think that opop is clear because they survived a shot. One scum with bulletproof in a game with a vig isn't an uncommon counter. I fairly firmly read keats as town. Null on sand atm, not enough to go on.
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Mar 11, 2024 05:42
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I'm weakly townreading cube, null on shark and moritz. I wouldn't mind hearing why exactly they decided to go for wins yesterday.
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Mar 11, 2024 05:43
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Oh also dans is town as gently caress lol. I do not buy a scum dayvig in a game advertising itself as basic.
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Mar 11, 2024 05:44
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I feel like opop should be more curious that they got shot at and nothing happened
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Mar 11, 2024 05:48
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fool of sound posted:I do no think that opop is clear because they survived a shot. One scum with bulletproof in a game with a vig isn't an uncommon counter. This is a fair point, especially considering Opop claims to not know why
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Mar 11, 2024 05:50
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Tired Moritz posted:I feel like opop should be more curious that they got shot at and nothing happened I mean, I'm curious, but what would you like me to do about it?
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Mar 11, 2024 05:52
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Well.... Are you an utensil? Do you believe Dan when they claimed? Thoughts on why you got chosen to be shot?
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Mar 11, 2024 05:54
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If I randomly get day action'd, I would be a bit paranoid that I did not get rolecopped or bombed or poisoned
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Mar 11, 2024 05:55
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btw i do not buy the idea that all of the scum coordinated on the elimination one way or another. scum have absolutely no need to coordinate day 1 and it's often counterproductive to do so because they want to disassociate from each other while the stakes are relatively low and town has nothing do go on there are definitely scum on wins, and the avenue is worth doing but the likely split is 2-1 or 2-2 on/off depending on how many scum are in this game
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Mar 11, 2024 05:55
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cube and rwc are the most suspicious because they switched easily onto cases that were, respectively, very bad and resulted in a town flip this would fit scum not really giving a poo poo and just going on whoever. assuming scum coordination is out of character with how they'd be likely to play and also presupposes that the people being pushes were scum which i don't think is actually that likely, other than maybe grandi as I said (but i like his posting today)
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Mar 11, 2024 05:57
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fool of sound posted:My thoughts on the end of day vote rush are that EITHER also, this post allows yuming and rwc to skate by uncommented on on the basis of several extremely questionable assumptions. yuming i'm feeling pretty ok about but i don't like just ignoring rwc when they're one of the scummiest players in the game currently imo
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Mar 11, 2024 06:01
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fool of sound posted:I do no think that opop is clear because they survived a shot. One scum with bulletproof in a game with a vig isn't an uncommon counter. I fairly firmly read keats as town. Null on sand atm, not enough to go on. fool of sound posted:I'm weakly townreading cube, null on shark and moritz. I wouldn't mind hearing why exactly they decided to go for wins yesterday. fool of sound posted:Oh also dans is town as gently caress lol. I do not buy a scum dayvig in a game advertising itself as basic. also, the posts of analysis following that post don't actually contain a scumread, just a lot of 'null' and 'vague town' and the last post is fuckin' nothing, i think literally everyone who has commented on dans has noted that his dayvig makes him probably town this analysis seems content light and also seems designed to omit several people from being discussed at all
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Mar 11, 2024 06:50
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so basically i got two things to say here 1. i find fool of sound suspicious but i think eliminating rhymes with clue will give us some information here 2. fool of sound, what do you think of my read on opop based on how a scum would be likely to act re: a bulletproof? he has not actually claimed bulletproof and is in fact doing the opposite
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Mar 11, 2024 06:51
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Not liking how oppo did not answer my questions tbh!
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Mar 11, 2024 09:37
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Sandwolf is not really lurking in my opinion.
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Mar 11, 2024 11:23
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