|
Saw a claim by an activist that 400 republican guards left Deir ez-Zor with Issam Zahreddine. If true, this is exactly how the fall of Tabqa airbase began, and the brass fleeing and leaving the soldiers behind to die fighting ISIS is what all the pro-regime pages were attacking Assad over. If true, and Deir ez-Zor does fall, people are going to be piiiissed.
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 04:05
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 26, 2024 18:43 |
|
|
Shear Modulus posted:Speaking of which, what is the extent of US-Iranian cooperation at this point? Are we cooperating but keeping it hush-hush, are we still in the stage of "we will both fight ISIS but not talk to each other?" Back a bit, but the US introduced new sanctions on Iran, hardliners lost their poo poo, and Rouhani gave his most venomous speech towards the west I've personally seen from him over the weekend. Sounded Ahmadinejad-esque. Nuclear deal is being called into question, and de-escalating tensions with the west is a dying ideal. Probably the latter.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 04:48
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Saw a claim by an activist that 400 republican guards left Deir ez-Zor with Issam Zahreddine. If true, this is exactly how the fall of Tabqa airbase began, and the brass fleeing and leaving the soldiers behind to die fighting ISIS is what all the pro-regime pages were attacking Assad over. If true, and Deir ez-Zor does fall, people are going to be piiiissed. Imagine if Assad fucks himself over and forces the Alawites to join up with the Syrian opposition to push out ISIS and Assad in cooperation with each other. Everybody wins  (I know it probably won't happen but it's hard not to have some sort of hope considering how hosed Syria is)
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 05:07
|
|
|
ThePutty posted:Imagine if Assad fucks himself over and forces the Alawites to join up with the Syrian opposition to push out ISIS and Assad in cooperation with each other. Everybody wins It'd definitely be ideal. I'm hoping for it, but it seems a stretch for Syrian minorities to come to terms with the moderate opposition. They've been claiming for so long that the FSA would massacre them, and the leadership has always been like "no no, we condemn revenge killings and want to establish a joint government. Just not one with Assad in it." Then the minorities find a video of some Syrian expat on TV or a dude in a rebel group who says when the war is over, they'll come for the Alawites. And they've used that to condemn and perpetuate the fear. But now you have this new dynamic where the minorities do the same thing and point to ISIS and say these jihadists will massacre us! And ISIS from top to bottom says "Yeah, that's the plan. That's exactly what's going to happen." And they are being beaten on multiple fronts by these guys. It really presents a whole new internal dilemma that didn't exist earlier in the war, and one I hope will change the perspective of minorities in Syria in conjunction with Assad's blatant selfishness and disgusting politicking really showing its face as the war continues to turn in favor of ISIS.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 05:26
|
|
|
If Syria drops Assad has a rapprochement with the FSA, I imagine that they will get american support and sweep Isis out of the country. Then have some free and fair elections that strip Russia of its Mediterranean port. With Maliki out of power a more federal Iraq can placate the sunni tribes, undermine support for Isis and form a government more open to US interests. Shared interest allows a thawing of US-Iranian relations... I'm waiting for the Saudis to gently caress it all up.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 06:01
|
|
|
Jesus Horse posted:If Syria drops Assad has a rapprochement with the FSA, I imagine that they will get american support and sweep Isis out of the country. Then have some free and fair elections that strip Russia of its Mediterranean port. Saudis supply Assad with chemical weapons to use against the now-revolting minorities, along with additional conventional munitions while also continuing to allow KSA nationals to fight for ISIS. FSA, SAA, and Syrian minority in 3-way civil war with the ever-present threat of ISIS genocide looming. Egypt enhances its weapons shipments to counter Turkish influence; Kurdistan remains stable through forced ethnic homogeneicy. Eventually, Syria collapses; genocides happen, development work ceases. Welcome to DRC 2060: Even poorer with more polio.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 06:14
|
|
|
The rebels in the south have put together their 10 ten videos from the Southern Front https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiONENKxOpo The video doesn't future two major figures in the south of Syria shooting each other over an argument, resulting in the death of the Omari Brigade's leader, a major moderate faction who has received a lot of weapons from their foreign allies, including Croatian weapons and US TOWs.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 07:41
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Saw a claim by an activist that 400 republican guards left Deir ez-Zor with Issam Zahreddine. If true, this is exactly how the fall of Tabqa airbase began, and the brass fleeing and leaving the soldiers behind to die fighting ISIS is what all the pro-regime pages were attacking Assad over. If true, and Deir ez-Zor does fall, people are going to be piiiissed. It looks like there were dozens of people filming and photographing that guy leaving Deir ez-Zor along with other officers and heavily muscled soldiers that look like they're on steroids. https://twitter.com/RamiAlLolah/status/506515099511582721/photo/1
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 08:06
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Back a bit, but the US introduced new sanctions on Iran, hardliners lost their poo poo, and Rouhani gave his most venomous speech towards the west I've personally seen from him over the weekend. Sounded Ahmadinejad-esque. Nuclear deal is being called into question, and de-escalating tensions with the west is a dying ideal. Probably the latter. Christ, really? Do you have a good link for this? We just can't help ourselves.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 13:15
|
|
|
^ Talk is always cheaper than action, especially with Iran. That said, it sure appears as if the US has aligned with the Kurds while Iran and Russia are supporting Shia Iraq. Everybody's fighting ISIS via their preferred agents, setting the groundwork for a post-ISIS and likely post-Iraq geopolitical future. If Assad survives this, he may end up with Iranian backing to push the Kurds out along with the Sunni militants. That would be what Russia wants as well, since keeping the US frustratingly entangled in the Middle East dampens American enthusiasm for a confrontation in Europe - and in a classic quid pro quo, if Russia forces the US to reorient attention into Europe, that may free up Iran to finally make its' own push for regional dominance. I don't know what the US strategy is since helping the Kurds (however righteous the cause may be) alienates Turkey and thus helps contribute to Russia's goal of weakening NATO. Obviously the US does have several long term strategy options to pursue and I don't see as much of a big deal out of Obama's "we have no strategy" remark as the media is making, but... I'd like to know where we're going to go from here, because the Russian/Iranian strategy certainly seems more coherent to me right now. Randandal fucked around with this message at 13:31 on Sep 2, 2014 |
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 13:22
|
|
|
Hey, you know where there was a strange lack of ISIS? In Afghanistan, but thankfully this is likely to change: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29009125 
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 15:39
|
|
|
My Imaginary GF posted:Saudis supply Assad with chemical weapons to use against the now-revolting minorities Stopped reading here. Sergg posted:It looks like there were dozens of people filming and photographing that guy leaving Deir ez-Zor along with other officers and heavily muscled soldiers that look like they're on steroids.  Assad is such a piece of poo poo.Peel posted:Christ, really? Do you have a good link for this? Doesn't mention the circumstances surrounding the new sanctions, but it does mention the effect, and really elaborates on how the Iranians have responded. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/31/world/middleeast/iran.html?_r=0
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 15:42
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Back a bit, but the US introduced new sanctions on Iran, hardliners lost their poo poo, and Rouhani gave his most venomous speech towards the west I've personally seen from him over the weekend. Sounded Ahmadinejad-esque. Nuclear deal is being called into question, and de-escalating tensions with the west is a dying ideal. Probably the latter. Do you have a link to the translated text? The summary I heard was quite different, that (apparently) Rouhani said the nuclear negotiations would not be damaged and that negotiations would continue. Do you know how these sanctions came about? I haven't seen anything too specific but I thought it was something like existing sanctions only now coming into effect. Or is this congress doing its own thing? My impression was that that, basically, Obama and Rouhani want to keep this thing going but each have hardliners they need to placate. IS only brings them closer together, they must have been in some sort of contact (even if indirectly) over this Amerli operation.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 16:33
|
|
|
According to reports its enforcing existing sanctions, with Iranian airlines linked to sending arms to Syria and bringing in money being targetted.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 17:18
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 17:40
|
|
|
Shageletic posted:According to reports its enforcing existing sanctions, with Iranian airlines linked to sending arms to Syria and bringing in money being targetted. Yeah, and Iran appears to admit that: quote:In a statement, the White House said the sanctions were a continuation of its strategy to crack down on groups suspected of seeking to avoid or violate existing sanctions, even as “the United States remains committed” to reaching an accord by late November.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 17:46
|
|
|
Hang on, that's not my signature!
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 17:56
|
|
|
IS is claiming they've executed journalist Steven Sotloff in a new video just released
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:07
|
|
|
Gregor Samsa posted:Reading A Very Thin Line by Theodore Draper is a decent place to read jaw-dropping stories of the US getting repeatedly out-negotiated by shady Iranian arms dealers during Iran-Contra. Primakovs "Russia and the Arabs" has some stuff on that from the Soviet perespective, but you have to read a bit between the lines. For jaw dropping and fun, "very thin line" is better.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:13
|
|
|
Misandrist Duck posted:IS is claiming they've executed journalist Steven Sotloff in a new video just released Multiple sources are confirming this now. E: Including BM
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:17
|
|
|
Misandrist Duck posted:IS is claiming they've executed journalist Steven Sotloff in a new video just released Seen it, does what they say it does.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:18
|
|
|
Knew this was going to happen, still sad to hear it. Do they have any Americans left?
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:21
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:Yeah, and Iran appears to admit that: Meanwhile, Russia rejoices because Crimean Champagne consumption in the Kremlin got up by 1000% following this piece of news, Russian analysts believe that further US antics could make the Crimean aquisition financially viable by further increasing Kremlin and overall Russian Champange demand. To further solidify this positive trend, Russias strategic nuclear arm has updated its targets in the USA to explicitly exclude congress. General Polkovnik Ivan Nuikov reinforced this new approach by stating that "New evidence suggests that nuking congress would actually considerably improve US governing efficiency. We have adjusted our targeting schedule accordingly.".
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:25
|
|
|
Here's a plea from a few days ago from Sotloff's mom. Poor woman.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aS1QNv8L0sM
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:28
|
|
|
Just The Facts posted:Knew this was going to happen, still sad to hear it. Do they have any Americans left? NYTimes reports they have two other Americans and that a Briton (David Cawthorne Haines) is identified as the next journalist to be threatened.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:37
|
|
|
Idlib has sirens now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-ocUwSaU_Q
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:40
|
|
|
Tortilla Maker posted:NYTimes reports they have two other Americans and that a Briton (David Cawthorne Haines) is identified as the next journalist to be threatened. I can't find anything on him, is he a journalist?
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:42
|
|
|
Didn't they really want us to release someone we're holding? Why not use them as a "bargaining chip" in less of a make-a-deal sort of way and a more tit-for-tat sort of way?
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:44
|
|
|
Just The Facts posted:Didn't they really want us to release someone we're holding? Why not use them as a "bargaining chip" in less of a make-a-deal sort of way and a more tit-for-tat sort of way? No, they want us to stop bombing them. I'd guess this latest execution is because they've lost Amerli. On a related note JAN is holding onto some Golan UN peacekeepers with JAN's removal from the terrorist list as a demand.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:48
|
|
|
Kevin Dawes is still missing in Syria, been 23 months. He's a goon, and I was friends with him on Facebook from when he was in Libya literally on the front lines. Had some conversations with him, and it was obvious that he had severe mental illness and wasn't being medicated. I'm guessing he got in with the wrong people in Syria, and I fear that he is dead  His facebook had his friends deleted some time ago.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:49
|
|
|
McDowell posted:No, they want us to stop bombing them. I'd guess this latest execution is because they've lost Amerli. They can't possibly be dumb enough to think doing things like this will do anything besides causing more attacks on them, right? McDowell posted:On a related note JAN is holding onto some Golan UN peacekeepers with JAN's removal from the terrorist list as a demand. The UN's tepid response to this is disgusting. They should be throwing whatever they have at JAN.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:50
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Here's a plea from a few days ago from Sotloff's mom. Poor woman. I went to the elementary school she teaches at, I was in the same year as her son. My mom worked with her. Welp.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:50
|
|
|
Xandu posted:I can't find anything on him, is he a journalist?
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:51
|
|
|
Just The Facts posted:They can't possibly be dumb enough to think doing things like this will do anything besides causing more attacks on them, right? Yeah, this seems to me more like an attempt to goad the US into committing ground troops again, so that IS can get everyone to gang up on the Americans rather than fighting them. Framing it as an epic Islam versus the West war would be far preferable to them.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:56
|
|
|
Just The Facts posted:They can't possibly be dumb enough to think doing things like this will do anything besides causing more attacks on them, right? It seems unlikely but you might easily have said the same thing re: invading Iraq and 9/11. The same logic has fuelled escalation forever.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 18:57
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:Yeah, this seems to me more like an attempt to goad the US into committing ground troops again, so that IS can get everyone to gang up on the Americans rather than fighting them. Framing it as an epic Islam versus the West war would be far preferable to them. I don't picture the US sending troops. Dropping bombs from planes works pretty well from the US's perspective.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 19:00
|
|
|
The New Black posted:It seems unlikely but you might easily have said the same thing re: invading Iraq and 9/11. It's a classic terrorist/insurrectionist technique. You attempt to goad your strongest oppenent into overreacting. That overreaction produces more pro-insurrectionist sentiment than a million lovely twitter accounts.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 19:02
|
|
|
David Cameron will be speaking later today on this.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 19:04
|
|
|
Korak posted:It's hard to believe he wouldn't let these people go for some kind of back door deals to further his cause. He himself was let go from prison so he knows what mercy can look like. You're giving Baghdadi way too much credit. Dude is basically a narcissistic, paranoid loving egomaniac cult leader. Arkane posted:Kevin Dawes is still missing in Syria, been 23 months. He's a goon, and I was friends with him on Facebook from when he was in Libya literally on the front lines. Had some conversations with him, and it was obvious that he had severe mental illness and wasn't being medicated. I'm guessing he got in with the wrong people in Syria, and I fear that he is dead Dude even if Kevin Dawes made it out of Syria he'd just get killed in the next conflict. He'd probably be sneaking into Mariupol right now so he could fight some Russians. Let me tell you, this is a way better end than most schizophrenics meet. Schizophrenia is one of the deadliest psychiatric illnesses because of the high rates of suicide. On average a person with schizophrenia will die 25 years earlier than someone without it.
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 19:17
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 26, 2024 18:43 |
|
|
I'm conflicted about how I feel the U.S. should respond to this. On the one hand I want to bomb IS back to the goddamn stone age but isn't that exactly what they want? Namely, for the U.S. to again become saddled with a military operation in that region?
|
|
#
?
Sep 2, 2014 19:19
|
|
