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UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I want to believe Forcing The Spring is a harmless puff piece about the AFER lawsuit that is being oversold as a broader history, but every new detail is ridiculous and makes me think the book really does claim AFER drove the movement. I'm very interested to see how they handle the reality that AFER did not reach its stated goal of a nationwide ruling or create any precedent to build upon.

Teddybear posted:

Any word on how arguments went today for the Oklahoma case?
Audio recordings are on the government website but nobody has a particularly notable summary.

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UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Windsor turned a coin flip into a guarantee from all but the most disingenuous federal judges who still defer to Baker because it's the only case directly ruling on the right to same sex marriage. You can get to marriage equality without that precedent, but it's not completely unreasonable to say Lawrence and Romer do not extend to marriage. Justice O'Connor wrote as much. The real issue was gauging if Justice Kennedy was ready to make a ruling.

It's very possible Justice Kennedy's mind was made up back in May 2009, but winning 8 more states before the decision certainly didn't hurt and AFER was not part of that. Outside of Rhode Island, there is zero support for the claim of AFER successfully "recasting same-sex marriage as a civil rights issue, rather than a partisan one."

I'll concede the chicken little point. Even if the existing orgs were wrongly against everything but the 2 DOMA cases out of Massachusetts, the book's claims about AFER are a joke.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



ecureuilmatrix posted:

Also, relevant to Chad Griffin talk. Those of you merry gentlemen more knowledgeable than I, can you verify what he says about his own importance?
That version of events seems accurate. Griffin prodded Biden who went off message on Meet The Press and rushed Obama's announcement that had been in the works for 6+ months. Congratulations for knocking over dominoes that someone else set up, I guess.

I can't get too mad about subjective stuff like historical importance when that article has bigger problems.

quote:

As a senator, Biden voted for the Defense of Marriage Act.

*14 paragraphs later*

“I didn’t see a problem with it,” and he never had.
:thumbsup:

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



That article conflates legislation and laws from constitutional amendments. :argh:

More criticism of the AFER book! Michelangelo Signorile piled on about the omission of major figures. Chris Geidner went after the demonstrably false parts and "the book’s limited Griffin-centric narrative."

quote:

Emblematic of the problems that plague the book is Becker’s treatment of the speech [by] screenwriter, and eventual AFER board member, Dustin Lance Black...

“If there was applause, Black didn’t remember any,” Becker writes. “Instead, he recalled an ocean of pursed lips and crossed arms, and that he was literally trembling as he walked off stage. … Tim Gill … denounced Black outright, telling the crowd he was naive and misguided.”

Video from the event provided to BuzzFeed
, though, shows that the speech was interrupted with applause five times.
Jo Becker has a Pulitzer while Geidner is stuck next to a 90s Kids listicle.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Chad Griffin was shamed into acknowledging other people's efforts.

quote:

Simply put, I have nothing in common with the trailblazing courage of Rosa Parks.
:toot:

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



There will be an appeal to the state supreme court for sure. The decision has nothing super interesting but Scalia citations are always good for a laugh.

quote:

And, as Justice Scalia has noted in dissent, "'preserving the traditional institution of marriage' is just a kinder way of describing the State's moral disapproval of same-sex couples."

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Report from Virginia's 4th Circuit case. Geidner says the judges seem to be against the ban 2-1. The NOM side had more protesters outside the court for once. I'm impressed.

The procreation argument for marriage bans remains strong as ever.

quote:

Nimocks replied that same-sex couples don’t give children a mother and a father and that that mother-father possibility is the state’s reason for marriage — the point extended by Niemeyer in his questions in the case.

That, and an exchange about whether adopted children are different than biological children, led Gregory finally to say, “It’s really disingenuous, your interest in children.”

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Everything depends on if SCOTUS has moved since January. I expect a stay like Utah and there won't be any constitutional bans permanently overturned before November.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



SCOTUS petition and request for stay are next. Respecting the decision of a state court isn't incompatible with issuing a stay for Utah, but people will be mad about that. Federalism! :argh:

Buzzfeed's updated and somewhat legible lawsuit map.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 00:11 on May 15, 2014

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I don't think the order of the remaining states has much to do with the rigidity of the bans. Nevada is behind Idaho because the case was decided before Windsor, not because domestic partnerships slowed things down. There are 29 constitutional amendments that have not been settled and only 3 come from states with something close to marriage.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



The short answer is 18 states and DC.

Marriage available: 18 - AR, CA, CT, DE, HI, IA, IL*, MA, MD, ME, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA, VT
Marriage settled: 17 - Above minus AR
Out of state marriages recognized: 1 - OR

Wins stayed: 6 - ID, MI, OK, UT, TX, VA
Incomplete** wins stayed: 4 - IN, KY, OH, TN
Losses: 1 - NV***

*Not all counties until June 1st
**Mix of out of state recognition and plaintiff-specific rulings
***Before Windsor and meaningless

I'm not 100% sure on the list of rulings, but nobody's getting married so whatever.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Arkansas Supreme Court Stops Same-Sex Marriages During Appeal

There's not much beyond the headline other than this eye searing rainbow scarf. I hope it's real and not a color balance mistake.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



News compilation to salvage this page:

9th Circuit says NOM cannot stay District ruling in Oregon. NOM is suing to intervene since the state will not defend the ban. They will lose.

District Judge strikes Oregon ban. No stay issued. "Expanding the embrace of civil marriage to gay and lesbian couples will not burden any legitimate state interest."


:3: That lovely signature though.

District Judge says Utah must recognize licenses issued in December/January. A 3 week stay was issued. "Plaintiffs have demonstrated that they are likely to succeed on the merits..., that the balance of harms weighs in their favor, and that the injunction is in the public interest."

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 23:39 on May 19, 2014

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



The plaintiffs being tipped off sounds reasonable.

e: Geidner - "matches what I have heard"

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 04:06 on May 20, 2014

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Hopefully SCOTUS will let Pennsylvania go. There's an argument for uniformity, but the rest of the 3rd Circuit (NJ, DE) is gone anyway.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



AYC posted:

Yeah, Windsor gave me the impression that Kennedy is fine with gay marriage nationwide, but wanted to put it off for as long as possible. Obviously, he can't really do that anymore, so legal gay marriage for everyone.
I don't think Kennedy intended to put it off. Windsor doesn't really allow for a delay on any of the marriage rights cases and the Nevada and Hawaii cases were already sent to Appeals Court when he ruled. He also wanted to rule on Hollingsworth instead of punting back to the District Court ruling.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Nobody is getting married in a public bathroom.


Possibly useful breakdown of Circuit Courts. It probably won't matter since Orrin Hatch is willing to publicly concede the meaning of Windsor.

@jostonjustice posted:

Courts: Democratic appointees in majority on 9 of 13 federal circuits; Rs in majority on 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th. WashPost http://tinyurl.com/kqkys8b
In 2009 it was 2 of 13 and a tie.
5: Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi
6: Michigan, Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee
7: Indiana, Wisconsin
8: Arkansas, Missouri, Nebaska, North Dakota, South Dakota

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Civil unions can't work in the United States without a ton of effort. Creating a new institution would require a federal law in addition to 50 detailed state laws or court rulings that go well beyond opening up an existing framework to new people. Maybe Australia or another place with federal marriage laws could do it if they felt a need for an institution that was easier to dissolve.

New Jersey had a civil union horror story committee. It was not uncommon to discover your civil union did not earn you spousal benefits but did put you on the hook for your partner's medical costs. Civil unions were a terrible kludge. A lot of states forgot detailed language about reciprocity. You could be a married couple traveling to the wrong state and end up with fewer rights than a couple in a civil union.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



ZorajitZorajit posted:

I live in Illinois, in the St. Louis Metro East specifically. Am I just missing it, or has there been absolutely no fanfare at all for the Marriage law to FINALLY come into effect? I've been really critical of Illinois deciding to take six months to enact this, but, whatever, it just seems like they're late to the party now.

Oh well, I guess I'm complaining about something I'm still glad for.
They didn't have the votes to make it faster. Fanfare is probably low because anybody could drive to Cook County and get a license since February.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Sweeney Tom posted:

Idaho's Governor asked Friday for the 9th Circuit to hear the state's gay marriage case with a panel comprised of 11 judges, instead of the usual 3. The state argues that the appeals court’s resolution of same-sex marriage “will carry profound legal and broader social consequences for all people within the Ninth Circuit,” and that “a decision by an eleven-judge panel stands far higher and stronger than does a decision by a three-judge panel — just as a decision by a three-judge panel stands far higher and stronger than does a decision by a single judge.”
I like this. It is dumb and won't work, but I enjoy a good superficial argument. 11 is more than 3!


Profound consequences for all people within the Ninth Circuit really means Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada. 12.7 million people or 1/3 of the population of California, a state where the defendants were not granted en banc review by the 9th Circuit. :eng101:

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



The Florida Democratic League is fighting "anti-voting rights extremists" and they mean people trying to overturn a public referendum. This is spectacular.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I am very jealous of token conservative pundits. That is a great career.

Sweeney Tom posted:

North Dakota's lawsuit has been filed.

And then there were none.
This is the worst map. Wikipedia may give you a seizure, but its map of the 50 states actually distinguishes 50 states.

e:

Wisconsin Lady posted:

I don't understand when 'We the People' became 'I the Judge,'
:freep:

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Jun 6, 2014

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



eviltastic posted:

Got a link to the text?
http://www.scribd.com/doc/228494269/Wisconsin

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



^There were 11 marriage bans that passed in the 2004 election. The backlash came, just not in court.

Lawrence is incredibly evasive about its implications and only makes statements of fact about the individual case. Scalia's dissent is the best thing ever and the eventual marriage dissent cannot top it. His angry ranting described exactly how judges would rule and left room for sick burns.

quote:

[T]his case “does not involve” the issue of homosexual marriage only if one entertains the belief that principle and logic have nothing to do with the decisions of this Court. Many will hope that, as the Court comfortingly assures us, this is so.

UltimoDragonQuest fucked around with this message at 04:52 on Jun 7, 2014

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Blue Star posted:

What's the most optimistic (while still being realistic) estimate for gay marriage in every state? I noticed a lot of you think we'll see gay marriage across the country before Obama leaves office. You think it can happen next year?
June 2015. Late 2015 to give some room for boring delays. It probably won't slide to 2016 unless they've made the choice to let all 9 remaining Circuit Courts rule. No Circuit Court has ruled yet. The other 2 were settled in lower courts.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Chris Geidner pulled the best quotes from the WI ruling.

quote:

States may not “experiment” with different social policies by violating constitutional rights.

Federalism was a common defense to the segregationist laws of the Jim Crow era.

There is no asterisk next to the Fourteen Amendment that excludes gay persons from its protections.

Defendants’ observation that the Supreme Court has not yet recognized a “right to same-sex marriage” is both obvious and unhelpful.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Marriage is a human right. It is in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, just like the right to work and a standard of living that includes housing. People on death row are allowed to get married. It is not an extravagance or privilege that means less without economic security.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



GOProud was a success and Ann Coulter was their ally.
They did not exist to advance anyone's rights or influence the party platform. They were a Tea Party challenger policing the moderate Log Cabin Republicans. They won.

2004: LCR refuses to endorse George W. Bush. "This [federal marriage] amendment would not strengthen marriage — it would weaken our nation."
2008: LCR endorses John McCain. "On the most important issue that LGBT Americans faced in the last decade–the federal marriage amendment–Sen. John McCain stood with us. Now we stand with him."
2009: GOProud is founded.
2012: LCR endorses Mitt Romney. "[T]he NOM pledge is ultimately merely symbolic and thus should not be the basis of a decision to withhold an endorsement from an otherwise qualified candidate"

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



They're not letting go until SCOTUS rules, at a minimum. Here are the GOP Senate candidates in states with marriage equality.

Support Marriage Equality
Massachusetts - Brian Herr

"Let's move forward" to "I don't think the government should be involved"
Maine - Susan Collins
Minnesota - Mike McFadden
"New Hampshire" - Scott Brown
Oregon - Monica Wehby

Oppose
Hawaii - All Candidates
Illinois - Jim Oberweis
New Jersey - Jeff Bell
New Mexico - Allen Weh
Rhode Island - Raymond McKay

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Wisconsin ruling and summary. It's what you would expect. The AG is going to appeal and SCOTUS provided guidance with the Utah case. Scott Walker is hiding under his desk.

The Hillary Clinton interview was kind of boring. Scalia asks much better questions.

quote:

[W]hen did it become unconstitutional to exclude homosexual couples from marriage? 1791? 1868, when the Fourteenth Amendment was adopted? Sometimes -- some time after Baker, where we said it didn't even raise a substantial Federal question? When -- when -- when did the law become this?

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Ghost of Reagan Past posted:

Only BIOLOGICAL fathers can get Father's Day cards!!! gently caress you, adoptive father, gently caress you, stepfather, you don't deserve Father's Day.
They should not reward second place!

quote:

“Certainly adoption in families headed, like Chief Roberts’ family is, by a heterosexual couple, is by far the second-best option,” said John Eastman, chairman of the National Organization for Marriage.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



FourLeaf posted:

I was really surprised by how many Hispanic people there were in attendance, and how some of the speeches (maybe all? I didn't watch the whole thing) were in Spanish or translated into Spanish. Are conservatives trying to change course on the anti-immigrant rhetoric? It's a bit late for that!
Conservative churches are very good at busing people to these things. If you only ever saw the public testimony for bills you would think 95% of Latinos were against same sex marriage.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Indiana summary, opinion, notice of appeal, and request for stay.
Utah summary, opinion, and AG response.. The AG will appeal, but the paperwork isn't in. They might try to delay with a second 10 Circuit review before appealing to SCOTUS. I don't believe there's any reason not to.
Susan Collins was shamed into publicly supporting marriage equality. She is the ~57th US Senator and 4th Republican to do so.


The Utah opinion is so good.

Decades old SCOTUS citations posted:

“Neither the Bill of Rights nor the specific practices of States at the time of the adoption of the Fourteenth Amendment marks the outer limits of the substantive sphere of liberty which the Fourteenth Amendment protects.” (Casey)

“The freedom to marry has long been recognized as one of the vital personal rights essential to the orderly pursuit of happiness by free men.” (Loving)

“the right to marry is of fundamental importance for all individuals.” (Zablocki)

“[T]he regulation of constitutionally protected decisions, such as where a person shall reside or whom he or she shall marry, must be predicated on legitimate state concerns other than disagreement with the choice the individual has made.” (Hodgson)

“Citizens may not be compelled to forgo their constitutional rights because officials fear public hostility . . . .” (Palmer)

quote:

Instead of explaining why same-sex marriage qua same-sex marriage is undesirable, each of the appellants’ justifications rests fundamentally on a sleight of hand in which same-sex marriage is used as a proxy for a different characteristic shared by both same-sex and some opposite-sex couples. Same-sex marriage must be banned, appellants argue, because same-sex couples are not naturally procreative...Same-sex marriage cannot be allowed, appellants assert, because it is better for children to be raised by biological parents.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



The Case Against 8 is alright when it sticks to the case and the figures involved. The wider events of November 2008 to June 2013 are AFER's hilarious version of history. The movie is fine, but court documents aren't that hard to read and there's no revelations here.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



WarEternal posted:

So, Susan Collins came out in support of gay marriage after receiving an endorsement from the Human Rights Campaign... over democratic senate candidate Shenna Bellows who was head of the Maine ACLU and part of the leadership here for support of gay marriage. How blatant can you be? I can't believe people let Susan Collins get away with being seen as bipartisan. I despise poo poo like this.
This is embarrassing all around. HRC is being ridiculous with their bipartisanship excuse and it's pretty clear expanding the Dem caucus is better for their agenda, even if the Republican has a stellar voting record. Collins made her endorsement of marriage look like a negotiated concession. It's more embarrassing than years of remaining silent.

quote:

HRC is a bipartisan organization. This is not an empty principle or a meaningless nod to an ideal we do not follow. We are bipartisan because equality knows no party, and because we simply cannot achieve justice for the entire GLBT community by conceding that only Democrats should care about us.
You endorsed Barack Obama in May 2011!

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



I'd rather have the head of the person at the HRC who thinks a token GOP endorsement and blatant quid pro quo is doing them any favors.
You can make a strong argument there's no point in backing a hopeless challenger and Collins earned an endorsement for leading on DADT repeal. Instead, the HRC offered a breathless press release including a line about "her proud support for marriage equality" that she first expressed after the endorsement news broke.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



It's still fun to point out HRC endorsed Collins in 2008 when their own Congressional scorecard gave her opponent a perfect score while she ranged from 75 to 88 over the previous 4 sessions.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



This stuff takes a while. Jackson v. Abercrombie may not be fully dismissed despite Hawaii's current laws.

The Utah AG office is still a mess from the last guy resigning and/or the current AG is terrible at his job. He forgot to request a stay earlier in the case.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Here's the opinion. This one is different from the case from February about recognizing out of state marriages. These couples sued because they are unable to get married in Kentucky.

quote:

These arguments are not those of serious people. Though it seems almost unnecessary to explain, here are the reasons why...The state’s attempts to connect the exclusion of same-sex couples from marriage to its interest in economic stability and in “ensuring humanity’s continued existence” are at best illogical and even bewildering.

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UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



It's very likely a marriage case will be heard and decided next June, but nothing has been filed yet. The Utah AG decided not to apply for an en banc ruling in the 10th Circuit so SCOTUS is the next step. The conference to decide to hear the case will probably be in the fall.
Summaries: SCOTUSblog Geidner

30 minutes ago SCOTUS denied a petition to let a Pennsylvania clerk appeal the marriage lawsuit so that state is 100% done. Michigan is officially the most embarrassing blue state on marriage equality.

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