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mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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The Maroon Hawk posted:

Every time I see Brian Schweitzer's name I have to go look it up to make sure I'm remembering who he is correctly (former governor of Montana), and every time I do, I remember just how badly I hope this man runs for national office. :allears:

Schweitzer taking out Baucus would be awesome.

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mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Majestic posted:

Is there something about Steven Chu I'm missing that makes this description appropriate?

Maybe he's pissed about SOLYNDRYA!!!!!

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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The Maroon Hawk posted:

After reading up on Baucus too (I've heard his name but didn't actually know much about it)...holy poo poo do I agree. How did that shitbag make it into office? His wiki article makes it sound like he's one of the biggest reasons single-payer wasn't even considered for healthcare reform.

He's horrible. One of the 10 worst senators, republicans included.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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MaxxBot posted:

If you're going to support something (bringing American gas prices up to the levels of those in Europe) that would put a massive financial burden on already hurting working class Americans, it's pretty drat important to point out that you'd want to do so after providing them some alternative method to get from point A to point B. Obviously he wouldn't have all the details on that part but he at least should have mentioned that if it was his intent.

This is the main argument for cap and trade.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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I know this is for 2014 elections not for 2013 ones but I had to bring up this VA governor poll...

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1852

The idea that McAuliffe can't break away from that literally insane person EVEN WITH a 3rd party republican taking 13% of the vote is very troubling. What the hell is going on in VA? This should be at least 5-6% ahead of what Obama ran in VA considering how terrible the republican candidate is. McAuliffe must be a truly horrible candidate.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Misandrist Duck posted:

Bloomberg-backed Robin Kelly has won the special election (Dem primary) replace Jesse Jackson Jr in IL-2.

I pretty much despise Mike Bloomberg but if he's going to make any democrat with an A rating from the NRA an endangered species I can live with that.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Adar posted:

Ergh, if he does that say goodbye to all the gains in the West. Do we really need a gun litmus test? I just don't see what's wrong about a Schweitzer or a Biden stance on guns outside major cities.

Though you're probably right by proxy because the NRA will shortly make being a Democrat an auto-F anyway.

Demographics in the west are on the democrats side anyway in states like Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, they don't need to cowtow to the NRA.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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computer parts posted:

If only all districts were in inner cities that suffer from gun violence.

By playing this this in primaries, you're moving the party to the left. Just look how terrified so called "mainstream" republican senators and house members are of being primaried by some crazy tea bagger with tons of Koch money, there is no equivalent on the left other than maybe this bloomberg group.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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computer parts posted:

This was literally the easiest primary in the world to work this issue, I would be more surprised if it failed to be honest. Tell me when someone like this guy gets primaried for his gun issues and maybe you'll have an argument.

(and yes, the fact that gun issues don't appear on his page is the point, he still has an A rating from the NRA and no one cares)

Walz is bad on gun issues but since he didn't even get 50% in 2012 he would probably be lower on the list of targets if you were drawing up a map for where Bloomberg should be spending...

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Joementum posted:

Tom Latham (R-IA) will not run for the open Senate seat, making Steve King the leading contender for the Republican nomination. :getin:

Karl Rove sheds a single, sulfur smelling, tear.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Joementum posted:

This'll be a very interesting race, especially with Amash making noises on the Republican side.

Conyers is the most prominent Democrat in the state (not counting Dingell who's way too old).

Snyder is deeply unpopular around the state, that won't help any republican trying to run for the seat. The michigan GOP is one of the most extreme state parties in the country.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Joementum posted:

Apparently Scott Romney, Mitt's older brother, is considering a run for Senate in Michigan.

So much for the Dems worrying about losing that seat.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Edible Hat posted:

According to Howard Fineman, Ashley Judd is declaring her candidacy for the Democratic nomination in the Kentucky Senate race: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/09/ashley-judd-senate-run_n_2843852.html
Who actually thinks this is a good idea?

I usually HATE the idea of "celebrity candidates" who's best political trait is their fame but if she can take out Mitch McConnell, I can't think of a downside to that.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Joementum posted:

She can't. The only hope is that McConnell gets primaried by a lunatic and Judd wins a close race, with the obvious downside there being that there's still a better chance that the lunatic would win (see: Paul, Rand for an example of this happening in Kentucky).

Best case scenario for the Democrats is that she doesn't say anything too embarrassing and they can use her to fundraise for the national party. The problem here is that this vanity campaign blocks the chance for some party-building activity in the state.

Not sure how we can be sure that she can't this far out from the election. We have no idea what the dynamic is going to be in November 2014... If the democrats and Obama are able to use the republicans' in congress approval ratings and nationalize the election, there is no more disgusting face of Washington dysfunction than Mitch McConnell.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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The Warszawa posted:

McConnell is widely seen as being "good for Kentucky" (he gets a lot of funding brought back) and it's a political climate where not actually being a frothing racist is a mark against you, not for you. If he's getting picked off, it's in the primary.

His -18 point net favorability in Kentucky doesn't jive with that...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/mcconnell-very-unpopular-but-leads-potential-foes.html#more

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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The Warszawa posted:

The phrase you're looking for is "I don't like him, but he's done good for Kentucky." This doesn't correlate with job performance approval, but it's one of those stopgap things that keeps him afloat despite climbing disapproval, or it was in '08 when he was running against Lunsford (who, himself, was not exactly beloved). I would be interested in a poll that disaggregated job approval as Senator from Kentucky and job approval as Senate Minority Leader.
You think that accounts for 18%?

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Old Kentucky Shark posted:

As hilarious as Judd/McConnel would be, Judd/Rand Paul would be infinitely better so I am in favor of this plan. Also, Alison Lundergan Grimes has a maestro's ear when it comes to local political advertising.

McConnell vs either Judd or Grimes is going to be the world series of misogamy. It's already starting on RW radio.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Hieronymous Alloy posted:

The easy attacks may severely backfire: Judd's a pretty girl, and most of the easy attacks either have easy retorts (i.e., all those photos of her in Kentucky jerseys) or might just make her even more popular (I'm not sure nude scenes are going to be a negative for the Palin demographic).

How is Paul's popularity? I know republican voters hate government but you never know what their tollarance will be for a guy who will never get any legislation passed or bring home any pork.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Old Kentucky Shark posted:

Pretty fair. He's racist AND pro-life and he has cross-party appeal thanks to his weed and hemp stances. The fact that Mitch McConnell has been buddying up to him for a while should tell you something.

There's a strong anti-incumbent sentiment that helped get Rand Paul elected and never really went away in this state. Both my Democrat mother and Republican father want Mitch McConnell out, if that tells you anything.

It used to be you had to be racist, pro life AND actually do something to make your voters' lives better. Now you can just obstruct, not participate in government and be a GOP hero.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Joementum posted:

The other Republican Representative and the Governor have both declared they're not running for it, so unless Rove convinces the Lt. Gov, rustles up an ambitious DA, or finds a carpetbagger, King should have a rather easy primary.

Harken to King would be as depressing as Russ Feingold to Ron Johnson. King better lose.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Looks like Reid is killing off the assault weapons and high capacity mag bans. Democrats unilaterally surrender as usual. Because who wants the chance to hammer republicans for voting no on something with 70% popularity.

mcmagic fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Mar 19, 2013

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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SedanChair posted:

It's suicide and he knows it. That 70% won't remember poo poo by the midterms. The other 30%? It's all they care about right now.

They aren't voting for democrats anyway.

Deteriorata posted:

Precisely. Which is why Reid decided it wasn't worth fighting for provisions that weren't going to pass anyway and said fight would hurt Democrats more than Republicans.


This is a myth and the NRA is a paper tiger.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Joementum posted:

Everyone, including Feinstein, knew from day one that this is how it was going to go down. You can't get a gun control bill through the Senate with an AWB as part of it, even if every single Democrat is for it, which they aren't. That's saying nothing about the House. So instead you let the pro-control Democrats hold a protest vote on an amendment while the stuff that can get through both chambers, in this more background checks, passes. Of course Diane is shocked, shocked, that her effort isn't part of the final bill because that's the role she gets to play in this production.

Yup, and the cowardly den senators who killed it never have to actually vote against it.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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notthegoatseguy posted:

I don't know why anyone is surprised. Didn't Reid say he wasn't going to waste time with stuff that he thought would fail in the House?

It's likely that everything will fail in the house. They should have all gotten up or down votes in the senate though.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Joementum posted:

Except that (1) they do since there will be a vote on an AWB as an amendment to the Senate bill, and (2) it would not have passed anyway since you need 60 votes in the Senate for a cloture motion, and (3) Democrats like Joe Manchin are not cowardly in their opposition to stuff like an AWB, rather they oppose it ideologically.

If this really was an issue of we fear the NRA so much, McConnell will allow the vote to happen without filibustering. It's never going to pass the house anyway.

Dr. Tough posted:

Why though? There's no point in putting something through one chamber when it can't pass the other. Unless you also approve of all those times that the House "repealed" Obamacare.

There is a point. Look what Bloomberg's superpac did in that chicago race. Those votes will drive where money goes during the election.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Joementum posted:

You're assuming that McConnell would allow a clean vote on a gun control bill with the AWB in it and that an AWB-free gun control bill stands no chance in the House. Neither of those assumptions are true.

If McConnell doesn't allow it, he's saying his members' no votes would be more damaging to them than the democrats' yes votes would be to their members. That's great news. Also, do you really think that 17 house republicans are going to vote for a gun control bill? And that's assuming zero blue dogs vote against it. That's quite an uphill slog. NTM Boner having to break the Hastert rule again.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Warcabbit posted:

Eh, they were probably in there to be sacrificed anyhow. Background checks are what will actually have some kind of effect on shooters.

High Capacity Magazines would have had an effect. Lanza would've had to reload 14 times rather than 5.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Are there any recent Stanford vs Colbert-Busch polls?

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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It looks like the evil Rick Scott in florida is a dead man walking...

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1869

quote:

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, running as a Democrat, tops Florida Gov. Rick Scott 50 - 34 percent among registered voters if the 2014 election were today, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Gov. Scott leads State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam 47 - 24 percent in a GOP primary.

Alex Sink, the Democrat who lost to Scott in 2010, leads him 45 - 34 percent today.

Florida voters say 50 - 40 percent that Crist's switch from Republican to independent and now to Democrat is a positive thing that shows he is a pragmatist, rather than a negative thing that shows he lacks core beliefs.

Scott's potential vulnerability is evidenced by the fact that only 32 percent of voters say he deserves a second term in office, including just 28 percent of independent voters. His job approval rating is a negative 36 - 49 percent, compared to his negative 36 - 45 percent disapproval in a December 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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BrotherAdso posted:

Virginia will be noisy, and I think Cuccinelli is crazy enough to sink himself even though the Dem opposition is piteously weak.

VA already elected one batshit crazy theocrat, why not 2?

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Mr Interweb posted:

Not exactly midterm related, but I've been hearing a lot of prominent democrats (in the media) throw around the idea of Biden as a possible Presidential candidate. Not Vice Presidential candidate, but ACTUAL Presidential candidate. Is this actually a thing right now? Cause it sounds like a terrible idea. Biden is the Democrats' Sarah Palin and he'd get eviscerated by the media.

He's Palin, without the incompetence, demagoguery, race baiting, and stupidity.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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quote:

Ed O'Keefe ‏@edatpost 6m
BREAKING: Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) plans to retire rather than seek reelection, reports @pkcapitol.


Good riddance to one of easily the 5 worst senators.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Even though he has said he doesn't want to run for the Senate, I'm hoping for Schweitzer '14.

quote:

@HotlineReid: Dem source says ex-Gov. Brian Schweitzer is thinking of running for Baucus's MT SEN seat.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Alter Ego posted:

I expect he'll get a nice cushy gig writing about how there's too much partisanship in Washington right now. Kinda like Evan Bayh did after leaving the Senate.

Nah, he'll probably just go work, officially for one of his unofficial employers now just like those 150 ex staff of his.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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Joementum posted:

If the Democrats hold onto the Senate in 2014 and if Wyden takes the chairmanship of the Finance committee and if Mary Landrieu wins her race in Louisiana, she will take over for Wyden on the Energy committee. Another very interesting committee development!

Wow, didn't know this. That is DEEPLY depressing.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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I, for one, am very much looking forward to the teabagger bloodbath in the Senate in 2016.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2013/05/27/130527fa_fact_mayer?currentPage=all

Pretty good piece on how even so called "liberal media" outlets like PBS bend over themselves to try to placate their funders. (In this case David Koch.)

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/KentuckyPollingMemo52813.pdf

Mitch McConnell tied with Alison Grimes, the KY Secretary of state, in what will be Misogyny Derby' 14.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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KernelSlanders posted:

Is that supposed to be an actual poll or a campaign PR thing? The questions seem pretty one sided. Consider:

(emphasis added)

Either way, I wouldn't put too much faith in the result of the poll.

PPP leans left but they are a great polling outfit in terms of track record and if you look at Q's 1, 2 and 3 thats pretty much the news that comes out of the poll, and they are asked before the other, more push-style questions.

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mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

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jeffersonlives posted:

That does make it less of a push poll, but remember that you have to answer the full questionnaire to be counted; throwing in questions that will get one side to disproportionately hang up is a great way to prime your sample.

Is there a reason why this poll would have questions like that and previous polls that have made up PPP's good track record haven't? Do you not believe that McConnell is tied? I mean he's crazy unpopular...

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