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Highspeeddub posted:That's because Synder ran as a moderate. He fooled lots of people into voting for him. Of course, once he became governor the first thing he did kill the film tax incentive. It was one program Granholm did that Snyder couldn't figure out how to take the credit away from so he said it was hurting the state and killed it instead. Also, Snyder was a moderate from Ann Arbor, and was likely in a lot of the same circles as Daniels. Those yard signs might just be from trying to support a moderate-seeming friend of a friend.
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Mar 20, 2013 06:22
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:TOday was a primary election for Tim Scott's vacated House seat in Charleston, South Carolina. What's the Cook PVI of that district? Wikipedia still has the ones from 2000 up.
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Mar 20, 2013 13:27
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Dr. Tough posted:What's the Cook PVI of that district? Wikipedia still has the ones from 2000 up. The redistricted 1st is all the white parts of Charleston with Beaufort and Hilton Head instead of Myrtle Beach. Sanford's gonna win. http://ors.sc.gov/digital/2010GISData/H3992_Statewide.pdf
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Mar 20, 2013 14:02
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Elizabeth Colbert Bush, Stephen Colbert's sister, handily won on the Democratic side. Indeed. With the names Colbert and Bush on the ballot you get the stoner democratic vote and the confused republican vote.
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Mar 20, 2013 14:10
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mcmagic posted:Harken to King would be as depressing as Russ Feingold to Ron Johnson. King better lose. The conventional wisdom around here in Des Moines is that King is unelectable in a state-wide race. PPP shows King trailing every likely Democratic contender, and Braley specifically by 11 points. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/dems-start-out-ahead-in-iowa-senate-election.html
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Mar 20, 2013 14:22
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Dr. Tough posted:What's the Cook PVI of that district? Wikipedia still has the ones from 2000 up. R+11 lol.
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Mar 20, 2013 14:51
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Brigadier Sockface posted:R+11 lol. Are there any recent Stanford vs Colbert-Busch polls?
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Mar 20, 2013 14:59
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mcmagic posted:Are there any recent Stanford vs Colbert-Busch polls? Isn't this just likely to play out that even if the opposition wins against the odds in a special election, the standard majority party will just re-capture it in 2014 like Brown vs Warren? I'm sure the RNC is hoping and praying the DNC will dump a ton of money into a southern congressional special election.
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Mar 20, 2013 15:07
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notthegoatseguy posted:Isn't this just likely to play out that even if the opposition wins against the odds in a special election, the standard majority party will just re-capture it in 2014 like Brown vs Warren? You never know in SC. We looove incumbents. This particular race really depends on exactly how unpopular Sanford is.
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Mar 20, 2013 15:17
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Though incumbency can save a few points, only two current Democratic reps are holding anything on this level. Magic Jim Matheson (R+14) and Mike McIntyre who's been the incumbent of NC-07 (R+11) since 1997. SC-01 has been represented by a Republican since 1981. So yeah she'd pretty much be the Democratic Joseph Cao.
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Mar 20, 2013 15:27
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Here's Colbert out of character stumping for his sister: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/25/colbert-out-of-character-sister-congress_n_2761910.html
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Mar 20, 2013 16:29
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Brigadier Sockface posted:Though incumbency can save a few points, only two current Democratic reps are holding anything on this level. Magic Jim Matheson (R+14) and Mike McIntyre who's been the incumbent of NC-07 (R+11) since 1997. SC-01 has been represented by a Republican since 1981. In McIntyre's case it's because they keep throwing scrubs up against him, including an actual war criminal, and even still he only won by like 600 votes last year. And he'd be an establishment Republican pretty much anywhere outside the south.
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Mar 20, 2013 16:47
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It looks like the evil Rick Scott in florida is a dead man walking... http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1869 quote:Former Gov. Charlie Crist, running as a Democrat, tops Florida Gov. Rick Scott 50 - 34 percent among registered voters if the 2014 election were today, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Gov. Scott leads State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam 47 - 24 percent in a GOP primary.
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Mar 20, 2013 20:52
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mcmagic posted:It looks like the evil Rick Scott in florida is a dead man walking... I'd wager that the state party wants to find a way to dump him. On a similar note, another southern state that has an unpopular governor and which might see a rematch of 2010 could go blue. It's not one you're expecting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Carolina_gubernatorial_election,_2014 I wonder how the media will deal with someone they propped up as a VP candidate and a part of the "new GOP" going down in flames? No one else outside of SC seems to realize how awful Haley is and how unpopular she is. Also, Sheheen benefits from being relatively young and likable. South Carolina is a state that will surprise some people in the future. It has the racial makeup of a place like Georgia (which people claim will be a swing state someday). The only real GOP challengers are the Speaker of the House (arguably a more powerful position in a weak executive state like SC, and he loves the pork), the Lt. Governor, and some no-names. I'm assuming any GOPer that isn't her would win the general, but Haley is leading "someone else" as of the last poll. If I had to rank the states most likely to flip from Red to Blue at the Gubernatorial level in 2014, it would be: 1. Florida 2. Maine (but probably I, not D) 3. Rhode Island (I to D) 4. Pennsylvania 5. South Carolina (I put it ahead of MI because, while labor may hate Snyder, EVERYONE hates Haley) 6. Michigan 7. New Mexico (but on party ID only, not because she's unpopular) 8. Nevada (ditto) 9. Ohio (might be higher, but Kasich has backed off recently) After that, I don't see anything that's really doable without some sort of scandal. There's Walker in WI, but he's survived enough to be given the benefit of the doubt, sadly. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Mar 20, 2013 |
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Mar 20, 2013 22:11
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quote:Former Gov. Charlie Crist, running as a Democrat, tops Florida Gov. Rick Scott...  they will never let the innuendo stop.
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Mar 20, 2013 23:46
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De Nomolos posted:
More people are coming around to hating Snyder as they do their state taxes right now. In 2011 he signed sweeping revisions to the state tax code, all of the new tax burden was dumped on the backs of the poor and the elderly, then he gave 1.8 billion in tax cuts to corporations. Exemptions The $600 exemption for children 18 and under eliminated. Pension tax exemption for persons born between 1946 - 1952 reduced - $40,000 for joint filers, $20,000 for single filers. Persons born after 1952 pay tax on all pension income. Exemption for unemployment income greater than 50% of adjusted gross income eliminated. Credits The Michigan Earned Income Tax Credit for low-income wage earners reduced from 20 percent to 6 percent. Homestead Property Tax Credit · No longer available to homes with a taxable value greater than $135,000. · Taxpayers with household resources totaling more than $50,000 can no longer receive the credit. · Credits are reduced for households with resources ranging from $41,001-$50,000. Other eliminated credits: City income tax, public contributions, automobile donations, college tuition, and many others. At the rate he's going the only people who will like him by 2014 will live in either Ada County, Oakland County or Washtenaw County.
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Mar 21, 2013 00:31
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De Nomolos posted:If I had to rank the states most likely to flip from Red to Blue at the Gubernatorial level in 2014, it would be: Virginia will be noisy, and I think Cuccinelli is crazy enough to sink himself even though the Dem opposition is piteously weak.
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Mar 21, 2013 00:38
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BrotherAdso posted:Virginia will be noisy, and I think Cuccinelli is crazy enough to sink himself even though the Dem opposition is piteously weak. VA already elected one batshit crazy theocrat, why not 2?
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Mar 21, 2013 00:42
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Not exactly midterm related, but I've been hearing a lot of prominent democrats (in the media) throw around the idea of Biden as a possible Presidential candidate. Not Vice Presidential candidate, but ACTUAL Presidential candidate. Is this actually a thing right now? Cause it sounds like a terrible idea. Biden is the Democrats' Sarah Palin and he'd get eviscerated by the media.
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Mar 21, 2013 02:12
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Highspeeddub posted:More people are coming around to hating Snyder as they do their state taxes right now. In 2011 he signed sweeping revisions to the state tax code, all of the new tax burden was dumped on the backs of the poor and the elderly, then he gave 1.8 billion in tax cuts to corporations. My hope is the race to fill Carl Levin's senate seat drives high turnout among Democrats, but I still have no idea who the dems may run against Snyder.
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Mar 21, 2013 02:13
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Mr Interweb posted:Biden is the Democrats' Sarah Palin and he'd get eviscerated by the media. This is a meme that's been going around since he got the Vice Presidency (in no small part thanks to Onion Biden, which is awesome). Every time he's gotten near a mic that didn't involve a five second soundbyte, he's done a pretty drat good job. And even the little "gaffes" he make are more "Oh Joe you so crazy" than "Dear GOD IN HEAVEN this person is a heartbeat away from the presidency." There's not even an equivalence here, is what I'm saying.
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Mar 21, 2013 02:18
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Mr Interweb posted:Not exactly midterm related, but I've been hearing a lot of prominent democrats (in the media) throw around the idea of Biden as a possible Presidential candidate. Not Vice Presidential candidate, but ACTUAL Presidential candidate. Is this actually a thing right now? Cause it sounds like a terrible idea. Biden is the Democrats' Sarah Palin and he'd get eviscerated by the media. Last time I checked, Biden can explain complicated ideas in complete sentences. That makes him nothing like Sarah Palin at all. Biden may run, who knows? It's his choice. If he bombs, that's the way it goes.
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Mar 21, 2013 02:27
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Deteriorata posted:Last time I checked, Biden can explain complicated ideas in complete sentences. That makes him nothing like Sarah Palin at all. Biden probably will run, he's wanted it forever. Thing is, he would probably make a very good president. He's a smart guy, gaffes notwithstanding, and he'd likely work better with Congress than Obama has. (That's less important right now since Congress is more dysfunctional, but it would still help to actually talk to Congressmen of both parties - Obama is pretty infamous for being unwilling to even take a phone call from Dem Senators, much less Rs or anyone in the House.)
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Mar 21, 2013 02:52
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Chokes McGee posted:This is a meme that's been going around since he got the Vice Presidency (in no small part thanks to Onion Biden, which is awesome). Every time he's gotten near a mic that didn't involve a five second soundbyte, he's done a pretty drat good job. And even the little "gaffes" he make are more "Oh Joe you so crazy" than "Dear GOD IN HEAVEN this person is a heartbeat away from the presidency." Deteriorata posted:Last time I checked, Biden can explain complicated ideas in complete sentences. That makes him nothing like Sarah Palin at all. Sorry, I didn't mean to give the impression that I think Biden is a Dem. Palin. He's not, obviously, and anyone who saw him wreck Paul Ryan would think the same. Of course, that doesn't mean that the media doesn't still have that negative impression of him. And I feel they will have a field day with him if he runs.
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Mar 21, 2013 03:12
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Chokes McGee posted:This is a meme that's been going around since he got the Vice Presidency (in no small part thanks to Onion Biden, which is awesome). Every time he's gotten near a mic that didn't involve a five second soundbyte, he's done a pretty drat good job. And even the little "gaffes" he make are more "Oh Joe you so crazy" than "Dear GOD IN HEAVEN this person is a heartbeat away from the presidency." Biden is in no way remotely the Democrat's Sarah Palin, but he was a mediocre presidential candidate in 2008 and he hasn't magically transmuted himself into a new person since then except in the eyes of the most diehard base.
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Mar 21, 2013 03:18
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By the way, we have a thread to talk about the 2016 campaign.
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Mar 21, 2013 03:46
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So, looking back a page, have the Democrats dropped the gun hoopla? Because it always seemed like it was their one dumb social signifier issue with no upside and tings were going better now that they were focused on governing.
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Mar 21, 2013 04:16
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mcmagic posted:It looks like the evil Rick Scott in florida is a dead man walking... Huge caveat: Crist has given absolutely zero indication he wants to be governor again. He wasn't particularly fond of it the first time, and if he did win he'd have to deal with an overwhelmingly Republican legislature that froths at the mouth hatred for him. Sadly, it goes to show the extreme lack of depth the Democratic Party of Florida has when it comes to running statewide campaigns when their best bet is a former Republican carrying a ton of baggage. The other Dem named in that poll is Alex Sink, who ran a GOD AWFUL campaign the last time (she did lose to Rick Scott after all). Plus her husband just died and I really don't think her heart is in politics any more. After them, who do the Democrats have to run? Kendrick Meek? Good loving grief. You heard it here first: four more years of Rick Scott. Florida is so hosed.
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Mar 21, 2013 05:32
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Highspeeddub posted:At the rate he's going the only people who will like him by 2014 will live in either Ada County, Oakland County or Washtenaw County. You forgot Ottawa County.
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Mar 21, 2013 05:39
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BrotherAdso posted:Virginia will be noisy, and I think Cuccinelli is crazy enough to sink himself even though the Dem opposition is piteously weak. Was only looking at 2014, but 2013 works. I'd slot VA behind FL only. I received an interesting bit of info from someone I know who knows these sorts of things from the inside today. One of the incumbent Democratic senators who was in a tough fight last year apparently told their boss, a big player in liberal politics, that the most productive and substantial help in last year's election came not from their traditional allies in labor, but from women's rights groups like Planned Parenthood. I'm not sure if this is good for women's rights and the power of PP, or just another signifier of labor's decline. The way it was presented, it seems to be the former. There are a lot of women, especially in swing states, who basically feel duped and violated by those elected in 2010. Assuming this issue stays in the public eye, you may see possible GOP pickups like New Hampshire, Montana, Iowa, and Michigan be more difficult than assumed, considering that the GOP nominee isn't likely to be a reputable moderate. I'm not sure how this applies to states like Arkansas or Louisiana, which are more solidly pro-life, even among many of the remaining Democrats. North Carolina is a total wild card, but I'm hoping the female candidate ends up being crazy Virginia Foxx (who said Matthew Shephard was a hoax) and not Renee Ellmers (who's almost a blank slate, save some anti-Muslim stuff) or Cherie Berry (who lots of morons vote for every election because of her stupid name). If I was going to rate the most likely Senate flips from Blue to Red, it would be: 1. West Virginia 2. South Dakota 3. Louisiana 4. Arkansas 5. North Carolina (unless one of the possible male candidates wins the primary, they're all repugnant and come from the leadership of the Gen. Assembly, which has a 22% approval rating) 6. Alaska (might end up being a bad GOP nominee again) After that, they all favor Dems at the time being, some because they just favor Dems in most recent years (barring Obama killing his dog on national TV or something), some because likely GOP candidates are awful. Ballz posted:Huge caveat: Crist has given absolutely zero indication he wants to be governor again. He wasn't particularly fond of it the first time, and if he did win he'd have to deal with an overwhelmingly Republican legislature that froths at the mouth hatred for him. Scott would have lost if not for the Tea Party wave b/c of health care reform. He did much worse than Generic R would have. A tiny number of people either needs to switch or stay home for him to lose. De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Mar 21, 2013 |
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Mar 21, 2013 05:41
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AsInHowe posted:You forgot Ottawa County. Also, Livingston is like a more woodsy Oakland county. That'll probably still be Snyder territory, too. e: Washtenaw went narrowly to Bernero in 2010. Why would it be Snyder turf in 2014? Ofaloaf fucked around with this message at 05:47 on Mar 21, 2013 |
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Mar 21, 2013 05:45
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De Nomolos posted:
Someone needs to run against Scott in order for him to lose. Sink's not gonna. Crist I have my serious doubts will (if I were to guess where he'd make his political comeback, it'll be to challenge senile dinosaur CW Bill Young in Congress). After that the Democrats have nobody, unless maybe they can convince Paula Dockery to switch parties too, or something. Seriously, the Democratic bench in this state is pathetic. They've so far had two years to start grooming a candidate to go against Scott, and a disgraced former Republican with a ton of skeletons in his closet is the best they can hope for? I'd love to be wrong, but closely following the political odds and ends in Florida over the years has not given me much optimism.
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Mar 21, 2013 05:54
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Anyone know much about how the PA governor's race is shaping up? Corbett's seeming really unpopular, but I'm never confident in this state doing anything sane in midterm years. Wikipedia implies that the two big Democrats in the primary could be Joe Sestak (decent opinions, but isn't charismatic) and Allyson Schwartz (who I don't know much about). Any hope of Corbett going through a harrowing primary that burns all his money?
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Mar 21, 2013 13:53
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AsInHowe posted:You forgot Ottawa County.  How could I forget Ottawa County? As for Washtenaw county, yes I know it went to Berneo. The folks who live there though say Snyder still has a strong following. Livingston County is the whitest county in Michigan. The KKK used to be very public there. Now they call themselves the tea party. Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic leader of the state senate is one person we would love to see run against Snyder. She would be a great governor. Unfortunately at this time she says no. http://whitmer.senatedems.com/
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Mar 21, 2013 14:39
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Nolanar posted:Anyone know much about how the PA governor's race is shaping up? Corbett's seeming really unpopular, but I'm never confident in this state doing anything sane in midterm years. Wikipedia implies that the two big Democrats in the primary could be Joe Sestak (decent opinions, but isn't charismatic) and Allyson Schwartz (who I don't know much about). Any hope of Corbett going through a harrowing primary that burns all his money? I haven't heard anything either which worries me. I mean it's possible Corbett gets primaried but I'd like to think he's unpopular exactly because he's doing everything the Republicans want. (And still having unemployment go up. whee.) There's one poll on the wiki page (which is really all I have to go on) that has "someone else" leading him by 12 points but that's typically meaningless. Wiki's got a long list of "potential" Democratic candidates... the only two "declared" don't seem to have a chance even though every potential matchup with Corbett seems to be a tossup with 20+% undecided, so who knows at this point. edit: It could certainly be their strategy to put someone different on the ticket and pretend they aren't just the same old crap. It worked for Toomey and is pretty much how Corbett got elected in the first place. Polygynous fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Mar 21, 2013 |
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Mar 21, 2013 15:35
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Paul Broun doesn't want to be a lion of the Senate, but he might like to eat one.quote:Broun doesn’t hunt just for the trophies. “If I shoot it, I’m gonna eat it,” he says. His warthog was particularly toothsome. “It’s actually pork,” he explains. “I had roast warthog, it was cooked in a French style. I’m a French cook myself, and I like to cook things with some fancy sauces and stuff that I’ll make at home. That was excellent.” This from an article titled "Can Paul Broun Win?" to which the obvious answer is "No". eta: Bonus picture of the lion. 
Joementum fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Mar 21, 2013 |
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Mar 21, 2013 15:45
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De Nomolos posted:
Berry keeps getting re-elected because her name's on every elevator in the state. Art Pope's two guys Tillis and Berger poll for poo poo, even among Republican primary voters, so who the hell knows what's going to happen with either of them. Another potential name is Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, who believes the Sears catalog is an instrument of the devil. Also Hagan's hired the guy who ran John Tester's last campaign and Reid's re-election in 2010, so that's probably a sign somebody's taking this seriously. I think what helps Hagan the most is the lack of a statewide Republican bench due to Democrats being the dominant party for so long that there's practically zero moderates in the state GOP. In last year's elections when the state Democrats were supposedly destroyed after 2010, Forest was one of only two people to flip an actual statewide office, mostly riding on McCrory's coattails, and even then that was by less than 2/10 of a percent. Alec Bald Snatch fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Mar 21, 2013 |
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Mar 21, 2013 16:49
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spoon0042 posted:I haven't heard anything either which worries me. I mean it's possible Corbett gets primaried but I'd like to think he's unpopular exactly because he's doing everything the Republicans want. (And still having unemployment go up. whee.) There's one poll on the wiki page (which is really all I have to go on) that has "someone else" leading him by 12 points but that's typically meaningless. Wiki's got a long list of "potential" Democratic candidates... the only two "declared" don't seem to have a chance even though every potential matchup with Corbett seems to be a tossup with 20+% undecided, so who knows at this point. Yeah, the two people who declared look doomed, but Schwartz has given interviews saying she intends to run. I guess she just hasn't filed the paperwork or something?
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Mar 21, 2013 17:10
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I don't think "declared" means anything official at this point other than "formed a campaign and informed some blog about it". I guess I'm just used to 2+ year presidential campaigns while the primary is still 14 months off. I'm complaining nothing's happening now but I'm sure the horse race crap will start eventually and I'll instantly be sick of it. 
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Mar 21, 2013 17:26
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watt par posted:Berry keeps getting re-elected because her name's on every elevator in the state. Art Pope's two guys Tillis and Berger poll for poo poo, even among Republican primary voters, so who the hell knows what's going to happen with either of them. Another potential name is Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, who believes the Sears catalog is an instrument of the devil. It's hard to realize all of that after the gerrymander job that the GOP did in 2010. Honestly, I'm pretty bullish on 2016, when NC will likely still lag the nationwide unemployment (hurting McCrory) level and either Janet Cowell or Anthony Foxx will run. Of course, this means nothing so long as the GOP has a veto-proof majority, but maybe they'll get some seats back, dunno. For the record, I am a huge Janet Cowell fan going back to when she was on Raleigh City Council. She's a progressive that has real business cred (MBA from Wharton, but also worked for the Sierra Club and was in China during Tienanmen Square studying abroad and supporting the protest). NC is weird in that the GOP controls the state due to 2010 and its complications despite the fact that no one likes any of the actual members of the GOP, they just got sick of Bev and Mike Easley and Dalton never had a chance since he started late and the safe corporate money that used to go to the Dems when they were in control went to the favorite, McCrory, who was the favorite from the moment Bev won her first election and people got to see how clueless she could be. I honestly think Berry is the only person who can beat Hagan that's on the list currently. All anyone knows about her is the elevator crap (does any other state provide free advertising like that?) so she's as generic an R as they come otherwise. Foxx comes off as pretty dim and has said some stupid homophobic and prejudiced stuff. Ditto for Ellmers, who barely beat a man by a couple hundred votes in a GOP year that tried to strangle a kid to win her seat and kept it because of a ridiculous gerrymander. Berger and Tillis are transparent jerks that literally no one outside their office or Lake Norman likes. Forrest would get clobbered if people actually knew anything about him (the Sears stuff, the UN Conspiracy stuff, etc) and didn't just vote for him because his opponent was weak (all the rest of the Dems on Council of State won except for LG). De Nomolos fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Mar 21, 2013 |
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Mar 21, 2013 21:11
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