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Newcastle
Jul 10, 2003

McAlister posted:

Investors and employers have been trying to commoditize developers since long before they noticed dry cleaners ... and yet they have utterly failed to do to us what they did to dry cleaners.

Assertions that our industry is about to succumb any year now are therefor not credible unless you can also offer a compelling explanation about why it hasn't yet and what has changed recently such that we are now vulnerable.

You could say we went through commoditization phase in the early 00's when outsourcing boomed and programmer pink slips flowed freely... but 5 years later we were back to cries of "Developer shortage!" and whines about how expensive developers are.

This industry pretty much re-invents itself with new crap every 5 years so nothing stays relevant long enough to get commoditized. 5 years ago nobody really cared about mobile. 10 years ago nobody cared about fancy web 2.0 poo poo or social networks. 15 years ago nobody *really* cared about cheap commodity servers, commodity e-commerce, dynamic web programming languages etc. 20 years ago nobody cared about the internet.

This will eventually stop and when it does I imagine we'll get pounded down to 40K a year... if we're lucky enough to still be considered for domestic labor.

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