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Desired AFC and NFC Championship Game participants? (Pick two per conference)
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  • Locked thread
Big Ol Marsh Pussy
Jan 7, 2007

Mel Mudkiper posted:

Yes but the Super Bowl is in primetime

Schedule the super bowl at 10 am and make teams play a bunch of exhibition games at the same time imo

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Mel Mudkiper
Jan 19, 2012

At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

Big Ol Marsh Pussy posted:

Schedule the super bowl at 10 am and make teams play a bunch of exhibition games at the same time imo

unstoppable Bengals dynasty

Bulls Hit
Dec 30, 2011

Legit questions always get stupid responses. Perhaps your brain will grow and you will gain intelligence and you might be able to provide an intelligent response someday! I don't pray, so I'm just going to hope you do get that intelligent brain some day.
So, Dolphins are the 6 seed, but still don't control their own destiny currently is what I've heard?

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Bulls Hit posted:

So, Dolphins are the 6 seed, but still don't control their own destiny currently is what I've heard?

Hmm, I'm not seeing that.

Winning out gets them to 11-5 with a 9-3 AFC record, and divisional tie-breakers vs N.E and Buf, and Wild Card tie-breaker vs S.D. They would lose a tie-breaker to Den or K.C though.

So if they win out and N.E loses once, Miami wins the division. Thus for them to miss the playoffs, they'd need to have the Pats win out.

Miami and New England winning out gives losses to Baltimore and San Diego, so neither of them can finish ahead of the Dolphins.

Pitt and Cincy play each other twice, so it's impossible for both to finish 11+ wins.

Similar divisional match-ups limit the max that the other contenders can hit.

So they could finish 6th (Denver and New England win their divisions, Miami and K.C at 11-5) but I can't see how they would finish 7th or worse.

Thus, unless I'm missing something quirky, Miami controls their playoff destiny.

Cole
Nov 24, 2004

DUNSON'D
11-5 and out of the playoffs?

Doesn't matter. NFC South is gonna win the super bowl anyway.

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Cole posted:

11-5 and out of the playoffs?

Doesn't matter. NFC South is gonna win the super bowl anyway.

The tears will be delicious.

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.
I was thinking on my walk home that my favorite thing about this season is that all the NFCS posters are a bit angry/bummed but we seem to avoid directly taking it out on each other because it would be initiating a discussion about our own teams, who we are embarrassed by.

Maybe I'm just busy and not posting as much, but other than gently caress Atlanta, any attempt at talking to another NFCS poster directly just feels like they'll respond by also talking about the NFCS and drat I absolutely want to talk about just about anything else other than our bad teams.

Jethro posted:

All I need is for the 7-9 Saints to host the 11-5, defending champion Seahawks in the first round. I mean, I doubt it could possibly compare to the Beast Quake (which is my favorite non-Patriots play of all time), but I just love the symmetry.



I've also been cheering for this outcome of the season since like week 5.

MJBuddy fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Dec 5, 2014

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

I actually can't muster up much animosity for NFCS rivals this year because everyone is just so bad. Arizona is my fallback team, but once they are out I think I'll root for whichever awful team wins this division because a 6 win Super Bowl champion is too beautiful not to want.

African AIDS cum
Feb 29, 2012


Welcome back, welcome back, welcome baaaack
You'd think Saints fans would be tired of the Seahawks running train on their team in the playoffs but they seem to keep coming back for more. Very interesting.

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

African AIDS cum posted:

You'd think Saints fans would be tired of the Seahawks running train on their team in the playoffs but they seem to keep coming back for more. Very interesting.

Like the Seahawks are going to win a playoff game.

African AIDS cum
Feb 29, 2012


Welcome back, welcome back, welcome baaaack

MJBuddy posted:

Like the Seahawks are going to win a playoff game.

http://notsportscenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/MarquesColstonForwardPass.gif

Blotto Skorzany
Nov 7, 2008

He's a PSoC, loose and runnin'
came the whisper from each lip
And he's here to do some business with
the bad ADC on his chip
bad ADC on his chiiiiip

NippleFloss posted:

I actually can't muster up much animosity for NFCS rivals this year because everyone is just so bad. Arizona is my fallback team, but once they are out I think I'll root for whichever awful team wins this division because a 6 win Super Bowl champion is too beautiful not to want.

Quoth Febreeze, http://www.thedrawplay.com/comic/the-nfc-south-plays-poker/

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

I don't have a gif of the Seahawks entire offense this season to post in response so I guess you win.

African AIDS cum
Feb 29, 2012


Welcome back, welcome back, welcome baaaack

MJBuddy posted:

I don't have a gif of the Seahawks entire offense this season to post in response so I guess you win.

How about this



*scrolls down for a million years*





a neat cape
Feb 22, 2007

Aw hunny, these came out GREAT!
Total yards per game is a really bad stat to measure defense

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

ROSS MY SALAD posted:

Total yards per game is a really bad stat to measure defense

AAc is a pretty bad poster so maybe it's just part of his gimmick?

Chichevache
Feb 17, 2010

One of the funniest posters in GIP.

Just not intentionally.

MJBuddy posted:

I don't have a gif of the Seahawks entire offense this season to post in response so I guess you win.

Hold my dick, bitch.

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=W0URyxkeSZM

MJBuddy
Sep 22, 2008

Now I do not know whether I was then a head coach dreaming I was a Saints fan, or whether I am now a Saints fan, dreaming I am a head coach.

Gettin pretty testy.

Chichevache
Feb 17, 2010

One of the funniest posters in GIP.

Just not intentionally.

MJBuddy posted:

Gettin pretty testy.

I'm quoting Marshawn Lynch. When he crossed the end zone he holds his dick in the general direction of Porter, I think.

ChickenMedium
Sep 2, 2001
Forum Veteran And Professor Emeritus of Condiment Studies

Chichevache posted:

I'm quoting Marshawn Lynch. When he crossed the end zone he holds his dick in the general direction of Porter, I think.

Homophones. :cmon:

Chichevache
Feb 17, 2010

One of the funniest posters in GIP.

Just not intentionally.

:cripes: ya got me.

EugeneJ
Feb 5, 2012

by FactsAreUseless
Kyle Orton returns to Denver today and will rape and pillage the village

Go Bills!

Gatts
Jan 2, 2001

Goodnight Moon

Nap Ghost
I think we can change the thread title now. Barring JFF miracle and a win out the Browns gotta look to the offseason.

Hockles
Dec 25, 2007

Resident of Camp Blood
Crystal Lake

Gatts posted:

I think we can change the thread title now. Barring JFF miracle and a win out the Browns gotta look to the offseason.

Yep. :smith:

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Sunday, December 7th, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 N.E 10-3 2-1 7-2 .bye Wind Wdet Lg.b Ws.d vMia @NYJ vBuf W-Den,Ind
02 Den 10-3 4-0 8-1 Woak Lstl Wmia Wk.c Wbuf @S.D @Cin vOak W-Ind,S.D L-N.E
03 Ind 09-4 4-0 7-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax Wwas Wcle vHou @Dal @Ten W-Bal,Hou L-Den,Pit,N.E
04 Cin 08*4 2-2 5-4 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b Lpit @Cle vDen @Pit

05 Pit 08-5 3-2 7-3 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Wcin @Atl vK.C vCin W-Ind,Hou WL-Bal,Cle
06 S.D 08-5 2-2 6-4 .bye Woak Wstl Wbal Ln.e vDen @S.F @K.C W-Buf L-Den,Mia,K.C

   Bal 08-5 2-3 4-5 Wten .bye Wn.o Ls.d Wmia vJax @Hou vCle W-Cle L-Ind WL-Pit

   Hou 07-6 3-1 6-3 .bye Wcle Lcin Wten Wjax @Ind vBal vJax W-Buf,Ten L-Ind,Pit
   Mia 07-6 3-1 6-4 Ldet Wbuf Lden Wnyj Lbal @N.E vMin vNYJ W-S.D L-K.C WL-Buf
   K.C 07-6 1-3 5-4 Wbuf Wsea Loak Lden Lari vOak @Pit vS.D W-Mia,S.D,Buf
   Buf 07-6 3-2 4-6 Lk.c Lmia Wnyj Wcle Lden vG.B @Oak @N.E L-S.D,Hou,K.C,Cle WL-Mia
   Cle 07-6 2-2 4-6 Wcin Lhou Watl Lbuf Lind vCin @Car @Bal L-Bal WL-Pit
   
Eliminated: Oakland & Jacksonville (Wk11), Tennessee & New York (Wk12)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
N.E 10-3 2-1 6-2 7-2 .bye Wind Wdet Lg.b wS.D vMia @NYJ	vBuf Buf-W? Mia-L? NYJ-W?
Mia 07-6 3-1 3-4 6-4 Ldet Wbuf Lden Wnyj Lbal @N.E vMin	vNYJ Buf-LW N.E-W? NYJ-W?
Buf 07-6 3-2 3-3 4-6 Lk.c Lmia Wnyj Wcle lDen vG.B @Oak	@N.E Mia-WL N.E-L? NYJ-WW

Common Opponents: AFC West, NFC North

Eliminated: New York (Wk12)
New England Patriots: They need to match Denver win for win to hold on to the #1 Seed. Clinch the AFCE with any win OR {Buf loss AND Mia loss}. Clinch a bye with two wins.

Miami Dolphins: Must win out AND have N.E. lose out.

Buffalo Bills: Must win out AND have N.E. lose out AND have Mia lose once.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Cin 08*4 2-2 6*1 5-4 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b LPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-??
Pit 08-5 3-2 5-2 7-3 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Wcin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL
Bal 08-5 2-3 5-1 4-5 Wten .bye Wn.o Ls.d Wmia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL
Cle 07-5 2-2 4-2 4-5 Wcin Lhou Watl Lbuf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL

Common Opponents: AFC South, NFC South
Cincinnati Bengals: They still control destiny but they'll be underdogs or sliiight favorites in all of them. Baltimore and Pitt will be favorites or sliiight underogs in all of their remaining matches, so there is almost no margin for error.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh controls their own destiny in the AFCN thanks to their big road win. They've stumbled vs sub-.500 teams all season though, so their road trip to Atlanta is crucial. Cincy has a tough set of games coming up, so Pitt could lead the division if they can win they're favored to do so.

Baltimore Ravens: Huge rebound game vaults them into the #7 Seed, but the Cleveland loss drops the Ravens to 3rd in the AFCN due to tie-breakers. They have a favorable closing schedule, but need to pass both Cincy and Pitt and one of them will win in Week 17. 10-6 could get it done but they'd need a perfect set of results (win vCle and one other game, have the Cin@Pit winner lose their other two games, and some other stuff).

Cleveland Browns: The Browns are down to 12th in the AFC due to a bad conference record, and 1-1.5 games back of the rest of the AFCN. They have the slimmest of odds at the playoffs but almost all roads to the post-season require them to win out.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ind 09-4 4-0 5-2 7-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax Wwas Wcle vHou @Dal @Ten Hou-W? Jax-WW Ten-W?
Hou 07-6 3-1 2-5 6-3 .bye Wcle Lcin Wten Wjax @Ind vBal vJax Ind-L? Jax-?? Ten-WW

Common Opponents: AFC North, NFC East

Eliminated: Tennessee, Jacksonville (Wk12)
Indianapolis Colts: Can clinch this week with a win vHou.

Houston Texans: The Browns let them down big-time, so Houston now needs to win out AND have Indy lose @Ten.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Den 10-3 4-0 5-3 8-1 Woak Lstl Wmia Wk.c Wbuf @S.D @Cin vOak K.C-WW Oak-W? S.D-W?
S.D 08-5 2-2 4-3 6-4 .bye Woak Wstl Wbal Ln.e vDen @S.F @K.C Den-L? K.C-L? Oak-WW

Common Opponents: AFC East, NFC West

Eliminated: Oakland (Wk11), Kansas City (Wk14)
Denver Broncos: Can clinch with a win @S.D, and are still in great shape if they lose there. A loss would probably kill their hopes of a #1 Seed, and would open the door to Indy and the AFCN leader to pass them for a bye.

San Diego Chargers: The game vDen is must-win for them to win the AFCW. For a Wild Card they need to get to 10+ wins a maintain a good AFC record (7+ wins). So wins @S.F and any other game gets them that far, and then they just need New England, Cincy, and Denver to beat their divisional rivals.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Sunday, December 7th, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 Ari 10-3 2-1 7-2 Wstl Wdet Lsea Latl Wk.c @StL vSea @S.F W-Phi,Dal,Det,S.F L-Sea
02 G.B 09-3 4-1 6-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin Wn.e vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet W-Phi L-Det,Sea
03 Phi 09-4 3-0 5-4 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal Lsea vDal @Was @NYG W-Dal L-Ari,S.F,G.B,Sea
04 Atl 05-7 4-0 5-4 Wt.b Wcar Lcle Wari @G.B vPit @N.O vCar W-N.O

05 Sea 09-4 2-1 7-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari Ws.f Wphi vS.F @Ari vStL W-Phi,G.B,S.F L-Dal,StL
06 Det 09-4 3-0 7-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e Wchi Wt.b vMin @Chi @G.B W-G.B L-Ari

   Dal 09-4 2-2 6-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi Wchi @Phi vInd @Was W-Sea L-Ari,S.F,Phi

   S.F 07-6 1-3 6-4 Wn.o Wnyg Wwas Lsea Loak @Sea vS.D vAri W-Dal,Phi L-Ari,Sea,StL
   StL 06-7 2-2 4-5 Lari Wden Ls.d Woak Wwas vAri vNYG @Sea W-Sea,S.F

~Teams below this line are eliminated from Wild Cards but can win a division~

   N.O 05-8 2-2 4-5 Ls.f Lcin Lbal Wpit Lcar @Chi vAtl @T.B
   Car 04*8 2-2 4-5 Lphi Latl .bye Lmin Wn.o vT.B vCle @Atl 

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk13), Tampa Bay, Chicago, Minnesota (Wk14)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 09-4 3-0 5-3 5-4 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal Lsea vDal @Was @NYG Dal-W? NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 09-4 2-2 5-2 6-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi Wchi @Phi vInd @Was NYG-WW Phi-L? Was-L?

Common Opponents: NFC West, AFC South

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk12)
Main Scenario 1 - Philadelphia wins vs Dallas in Week 15

Philadelphia clinches if they win one more game OR Dallas loses one more game.

Dallas clinches if they win vInd & @Was and Philly loses @Was & @NYG.

Main Scenario 2 - Dallas wins vs Philadelphia in Week 15

pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 09-5 3-1 5-3 5-5 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal Lsea Ldal @Was @NYG Dal-WL NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 10-4 3-2 5-2 7-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi Wchi Wphi vInd @Was NYG-WW Phi-LW Was-L?
Philadelphia clinches with:

1) Phi wins (@Was AND @NYG) AND any Dal loss [clinch via NFCE record, 5-1 vs 4-2 at best];
2) Phi win either (@Was OR @NYG) AND Dal loses (@Was AND vInd)) [clinch via NFCE record, 4-2 vs 3-3];

Dallas clinches with:

1) Dal wins vInd AND @Was;
2) Dal wins (vInd OR @Was) AND Phi loses (@Was OR @NYG);
3) Phi loses (@Was AND @NYG).

Philadelphia Eagles: See above.

Dallas Cowboys: See above.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
G.B 09-3 4-1 4-1 6-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin Wn.e vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet Chi-WW Det-L? Min-WW
Det 09-4 3-0 5-3 7-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e Wchi Wt.b vMin @Chi @G.B Chi-W? G.B-W? Min-W?

Common Opponents: NFC South, AFC East

Eliminated: Chicago, Minnesota (Wk13)
Green Bay: Pending MNF.

Detroit: Pending MNF.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Atl 05-7 4-0 0-6 5-4 Wt.b Wcar Lcle Wari @G.B vPit @N.O vCar Car-W? N.O-W? T.B-W?
N.O 05-8 2-2 3-4 4-5 Ls.f Lcin Lbal Wpit Lcar @Chi vAtl @T.B Atl-L? Car-WL T.B-W?
Car 04*8 2-2 2*3 4-6 Lphi Latl .bye Lmin Wn.o vT.B vCle @Atl Atl-L? N.O-L? T.B W?

Common Opponents: NFC North, AFC North
Atlanta: Pending MNF.

New Orleans: Pending MNF.

Carolina: If the Packers can win then they'll just be a half-game back, but one of Atl and N.O is guaranteed another win (barring a tie in their match). Carolina has an outside shot and will be rooting for the Falcons at the Saints.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ari 10-3 2-1 7-1 7-2 Wstl Wdet Lsea Latl Wk.c @StL vSea @S.F S.F-W? Sea-L? StL-W?
Sea 09-4 2-1 5-3 6-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari Ws.f Wphi vS.F @Ari vStL Ari-W? S.F-W? StL-L?
S.F 07-6 1-3 5-1 6-4 Wn.o Wnyg Wwas Lsea @Oak @Sea vS.D vAri Ari-L? Sea-L? StL-WL

Common Opponents: NFC East, AFC West

Eliminated: St. Louis (Wk14)
Arizona Cardinals: Clinch with win vSea AND any other {Ari win OR Sea loss}.

Seattle Seahawks: They control their own destiny, but their match @Ari is all but must-win.

San Francisco 49ers: Must win out AND have Arizona lose out AND have Sea lose all but @Ari.

kalensc fucked around with this message at 07:05 on Dec 8, 2014

Kawalimus
Jan 17, 2008

Better Living Through Birding And Pessimism
Basically for the Ravens, they now control their own destiny in terms of making the playoffs. If they go 11-5 they are guaranteed in. But for the division they are going to need to win out and go 11-5, plus Pittsburgh and Cincinnati each need to lose another game.

I do not think 10-6 will do it for this team in terms of playoffs unless the Chargers have a bad collapse, which I guess is possible with their schedule.

I think the Houston game will be really tough in particular. But Cleveland at home is no guaranteed win anymore either.

My prediction is the Steelers win the AFC North. Was rooting for Pittsburgh this week but should have probably rooted for the Bengals since they're likely to take a loss the next couple games and Pittsburgh is less so.

Kawalimus fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Dec 8, 2014

Pakistani Brad Pitt
Nov 28, 2004

Not as taciturn, but still terribly powerful...



The Minnesota Vikings are not mathematically eliminated!

quote:

1) The Vikings must win their final three games of the regular season (at Detroit, at Miami, vs Chicago) to finish 9-7. Obviously, this is the big one. If this doesn't happen, nothing that follows matters.

2) Seattle has to lose their remaining three games (vs San Francisco, at Arizona, vs St. Louis) so that they finish 9-7.

3) Either Philadelphia or Dallas has to lose out so that one of them finishes 9-7. They can't both lose out, as they play each other in Philly this coming Sunday. The Eagles also have road games against the Redskins and Giants, while the Cowboys finish at Indianapolis and at home against Washington.

4) San Francisco has to lose at least one game (at Seattle, vs San Diego, vs Arizona) so that they can't finish any better than 9-7. Of course, if they lose to Seattle, that prevents #2 above from happening, so it would have to be at least one of their two remaining home games.

5) St. Louis has to win out so that they, also, finish at 9-7.

6) Both Green Bay and Detroit have to. . .I hope you're sitting down. . .win at least one more game. That's because if the Packers, Lions, and Vikings were to all finish 9-7, Green Bay and Detroit would both have better divisional records than the Vikings. The divisional record tiebreaker would be the first one used, and the Vikings would be eliminated in that case.


:eng99:

Top Hats Monthly
Jun 22, 2011


People are people so why should it be, that you and I should get along so awfully blink blink recall STOP IT YOU POSH LITTLE SHIT

MrChupon posted:

The Minnesota Vikings are not mathematically eliminated!



:eng99:

I would be okay with this

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
Current Draft Order (Top 10, through Week 14)
pre:
## Tm. W-L. .SoS  Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
-- --- ---- ----  ---- ---- ----
01 T.B 2-11 .488  @Car vG.B vN.O 
02 Ten 2-11 .490  vNYJ @Jax vInd
03 Jax 2-11 .522  @Bal vTen @Hou
04 NYJ 2-11 .549  @Ten vN.E @Mia
05 Oak 2-11 .590  @K.C vBuf @Den
06 Was 3-10 .500  @NYG vPhi vDal
07 NYG 4-09 .522  vWas @StL vPhi
08 Car 4*08 .502  vT.B vCle @Atl
09 N.O 5-08 .493  @Chi vAtl @T.B 
10 Chi 5-08 .520  vN.O vDet @Min
The draft tie-breakers are:

1) Least amount of wins;
2) Worst SoS;
3) Worst divisional record (if same division);
4) Worst common opponents record (if same division);
5) Worst conference record (if same conference);
6) Coin flip.

(Strength of Victory and other rarer tie-breakers may factor in, the rules are surprisingly ambiguous on the NFL site and every draft breakdown site I reviewed. I'll assume they don't since the above setup does work with past coin-flip scenarios.)

For the #1 Pick, if Tampa and Tennessee both lose out, then it will all come down to how well their 13 opponents from the 2014 season fare.

Note that since there are so many divisional games left, there isn't a ton of room for movement, i.e. Hou@Ind will give Tenn both 2 SoS wins and 2 SoS losses, and they're so close to .500 that it will be a negligible adjustment. Same for NFCS match-ups and Tampa.

Thus the greater impact will come from the inter-divisional games on everyone's schedules. For example, Tampa is pulling for Green Bay tonight so that they can earn two more SoS losses. Tennessee's SoS won't be affected either way but they should be Atlanta fans so that Tampa gets two more SoS wins.

Both teams have winnable games left on the schedule, so this analysis may be moot in the end, but if both lose out then their SoS' will be entirely decided by Week 16 (since Week 17 is all divisional matches and thus each result will simply add 2-2 to their SoS total).

Oakland was a big winner and loser this week, with the upset vs San Francisco in the Battle of the Bay dropping them from #1 to #5. They can only move up if some/all of Tampa, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and N.Y. Jets lose more games.

There is some great news on that front though: Tennessee plays the Jets and Jaguars the next two weeks. So long as Tennessee doesn't win both then 2 of the 3 teams will earn a 3rd win and Oakland will be picking no worse than 3rd (assuming they lose their two games). Best scenario is one of those Tenn games ends in a tie, and the Titans lose the other, moving Oakland into 2nd (or 1st if Tampa wins @Car or vG.B).

Don't count out Washington for a top-3 pick, they have a poor enough SoS to sneak past the Jags and Jets and Raiders if any/all of those three win some games.

AAAAA! Real Muenster
Jul 12, 2008

My QB is also named Bort

I hate to say it and be that guy, but at this point I am hoping the Jaguars lose out so they can have better picks. With so many teams at 2 wins, if they win even one more game it could be a huge swing in pick position. They have been drafting well and I would love to see them trade away the <top 3 pick> to get more picks this coming draft and the next.

Cole
Nov 24, 2004

DUNSON'D
As long as the bucs pick in the top 3 I think we are good to take mariota but we will probably take an OT only because it's too early to take a safety.

Blitz of 404 Error
Sep 19, 2007

Joe Biden is a top 15 president
Oakland shouldn't beat KC, Buffalo, or Denver so I'm pretty sure they get a top 3 pick.


Go Bucs

AAAAA! Real Muenster
Jul 12, 2008

My QB is also named Bort


Go Jets
Go Tennessee
Go Washington

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
ESPN needs to setup a draft race simulator so we can dream our way to the best draft order.

Whoever wins Atl@N.O is going to cost themselves about 12 spots in the draft order. Arthur Blank might be rooting for more Mike Smith clock management gaffes to ensure a top 10 selection with his new staff.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Blitz7x posted:

Oakland shouldn't beat KC, Buffalo, or Denver so I'm pretty sure they get a top 3 pick.


Go Bucs

Buffalo at home seems quite winnable. Both wins were home games vs teams that have stingy defenses and subpar offenses and red in their uniforms.

Raiders 20, Bills 17.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Bort Bortles posted:

I hate to say it and be that guy, but at this point I am hoping the Jaguars lose out so they can have better picks. With so many teams at 2 wins, if they win even one more game it could be a huge swing in pick position. They have been drafting well and I would love to see them trade away the <top 3 pick> to get more picks this coming draft and the next.

Jags are going to do what they should of done last time and beat the titans.

Cole posted:

As long as the bucs pick in the top 3 I think we are good to take mariota but we will probably take an OT only because it's too early to take a safety.

Mariota will be a titan

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
More draft stuff, just the details, useful for figuring out the tie-breakers for the top picks.

pre:
Team	Div	Conf	Ovr W	Ovr L	Ovr %	Div W	Div L	C.O W	C.O L	Cnf W	Cnf L	SoS W	SoS L	SoS %
T.B	NFCS	NFC	2	11	0.154	0	4	1	6	1	8	99.5	108.5	0.478
TEN	AFCS	AFC	2	11	0.154	1	3	0	8	2	7	101.5	106.5	0.488
JAX	AFCS	AFC	2	11	0.154	0	4	2	5	1	8	107.5	100.5	0.517
NYJ	AFCE	AFC	2	11	0.154	0	4	1	7	2	7	115	93	0.553
OAK	AFCW	AFC	2	11	0.154	1	3	1	6	1	8	122	86	0.587
Was	NFCE	NFC	3	10	0.231	1	2	2	6	1	8	104	104	0.500
NYG	NFCE	NFC	4	9	0.308	1	3	2	5	2	7	108	100	0.519
CAR	NFCS	NFC	4.5	8.5	0.346	2	2	2.5	4.5	4	6	103.5	104.5	0.498
ATL	NFCS	NFC	5	8	0.385	4	0	0	7	5	5	98.5	109.5	0.474
N.O	NFCS	NFC	5	8	0.385	2	2	3	4	4	5	100.5	107.5	0.483
CHI	NFCN	NFC	5	8	0.385	1	3	3	4	4	5	108.5	99.5	0.522
If you've ever wondered why SoS seems to vary from source to source it's because a lot of places are either:

1) Counting divisional opponents once instead of twice; or
2) Only counting opponents played thus far rather than all 16 opponents.

kalensc fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Dec 10, 2014

Fenrir
Apr 26, 2005

I found my kendo stick, bitch!

Lipstick Apathy
What's funny to me is, winning the NFC South seems like a BAD thing at this point. Just getting that playoff spot means dropping about 10 places in the draft with how lovely their records are.

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Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Fenrir posted:

What's funny to me is, winning the NFC South seems like a BAD thing at this point. Just getting that playoff spot means dropping about 10 places in the draft with how lovely their records are.

Eh, knowing the Saints, they'd probably screw up pick #9 or so. Might as well say we're NFC South champions, get the cheap T-shirt and pick at #21. Saves money.

Whether we could actually beat the Bears, Falcons, and Bucs to get there is an entirely different story.

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