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Desired AFC and NFC Championship Game participants? (Pick two per conference)
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  • Locked thread
kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Sunday, December 21st, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 N.E 12-3 4-1 9-2 .bye Wind Wdet Lg.b Ws.d Wmia Wnyj vBuf W-Den,Ind
02 Den 11-3 5-0 9-1 Woak Lstl Wmia Wk.c Wbuf Ws.d @Cin vOak W-Ind L-N.E
03 Ind 10-5 5-0 8-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax Wwas Wcle Whou Ldal @Ten L-Den,Pit,N.E
04 Cin 09*4 3-2 6-4 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b Lpit Wcle vDen @Pit

05 Pit 10-5 3-2 8-3 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Wcin Watl Wk.c vCin W-Ind WL-Bal
06 S.D 09-6 2-3 6-5 .bye Woak Wstl Wbal Ln.e Lden Ws.f @K.C L-K.C

   Bal 09-6 2-3 5-6 Wten .bye Wn.o Ls.d Wmia Wjax Lhou vCle WL-Pit  

   Hou 08-7 3-2 7-4 .bye Wcle Lcin Wten Wjax Lind Wbal vJax 
   K.C 08-7 2-3 6-5 Wbuf Wsea Loak Lden Lari Woak Lpit vS.D W-S.D
   
Eliminated: Oakland & Jacksonville (Wk11), Tennessee & New York (Wk12), Cleveland, Miami, Buffalo (Wk16)

Den@Cin Buf@N.E Oak@Den 1st 2nd
------- ------- ------- --- ---
  Cin      *       *    N.E Den
  Den     N.E      *    N.E Den
  Den     Buf     Oak   N.E Den
  Den     Buf     Den   Den N.E

Den@Cin Cin@Pit Ind@Ten 3rd 4th
------- ------- ------- --- ---
   *      Pit      *    Pit Ind
  Cin     Cin      *    Cin Ind
  Den     Cin    Ten    Cin Ind
  Den     Cin    Ind    Ind Cin

Den@Cin Cin@Pit S.D@K.C Cle@Bal Jax@Hou 5th 6th  Miss Playoffs
------- ------- ------- ------- ------- --- ---  -------------
   *      Cin     S.D      *       *    Pit S.D  Bal, Hou, K.C
   *      Cin     K.C     Bal      *    Pit Bal  Hou, K.C, S.D
   *      Cin     K.C     Cle     Hou   Pit Hou  K.C, S.D, Bal
   *      Cin     K.C     Cle     Jax   Pit K.C  S.D, Bal, Hou

  Cin     Pit     S.D      *       *    Cin S.D  Bal, Hou, K.C
  Cin     Pit     K.C     Bal      *    Cin Bal  Hou, K.C, S.D
  Cin     Pit     K.C     Cle     Hou   Cin Hou  K.C, S.D, Bal
  Cin     Pit     K.C     Cle     Jax   Cin K.C  S.D, Bal, Hou

  Den     Pit     S.D     Bal      *    S.D Bal  Cin, Hou, K.C   
  Den     Pit     S.D     Cle      *    S.D Cin  Hou, Bal, K.C
  Den     Pit     K.C     Bal      *    Bal Cin  Hou, K.C, S.D
  Den     Pit     K.C     Cle     Hou   Cin Hou  K.C, S.D, Bal
  Den     Pit     K.C     Cle     Jax   Cin K.C  S.D, Bal, Hou


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
N.E 12-3 4-1 6-2 9-2 .bye Wind Wdet Lg.b wS.D Wmia Wnyj	vBuf Clinched AFCE & Bye

Eliminated: New York (Wk12), Miami, Buffalo (Wk15)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Cin 09*4 3-2 6*1 6-4 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b LPit Wcle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-LW Pit-??
Pit 10-5 3-2 6-2 7-3 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Wcin Watl Wk.c vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL
Bal 09-6 2-3 6-2 5-6 Wten .bye Wn.o Ls.d Wmia Wjax Lhou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL

Common Opponents: AFC South, NFC South

Eliminated: Cleveland (Wk15), Baltimore (Wk16)
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers - Winner clinches the AFCN.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ind 10-5 5-0 5-3 8-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax Wwas Wcle Whou Ldal @Ten Hou-WW Jax-WW Ten-W?

Eliminated: Tennessee, Jacksonville (Wk12), Houston (Wk15)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Den 11-3 5-0 5-3 9-1 Woak Lstl Wmia Wk.c Wbuf Ws.d @Cin vOak K.C-WW Oak-W? S.D-W?

Eliminated: Oakland (Wk11), Kansas City (Wk14), San Diego (Wk15)

kalensc fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Dec 22, 2014

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kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Sunday, December 21st, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 Sea 11-4 4-1 9-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari Ws.f Wphi Ws.f Wari vStL W-G.B,Ari L-Dal
02 Det 11-4 5-0 9-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e Wchi Wt.b Wmin Wchi @G.B W-G.B L-Ari
03 Dal 11-4 3-2 7-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi Wchi Wphi Wind @Was W-Sea L-Ari
04 Car 06*8 3-2 5-6 Lphi Latl .bye Lmin Wn.o Wt.b Wcle @Atl

05 Ari 11-4 3-2 8-3 Wstl Wdet Lsea Latl Wk.c Wstl Lsea @S.F W-Dal,Det L-Sea
06 G.B 11-4 4-1 8-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin Wn.e Watl Lbuf Wt.b vDet L-Det,Sea

~Teams below this line are eliminated from Wild Cards but can win a division~

   Atl 06-9 5-0 6-5 Wt.b Wcar Lcle Wari Lg.b Lpit Wn.o vCar W-N.O   

StL@Sea Det@G.B Ari@S.F Dal@Was 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th
------- ------- ------- ------- --- --- --- --- ---
  Sea     G.B      *       *    Sea G.B Dal Ari Det
  Sea     Det      *       *    Sea Det Dal Ari G.B
  StL     G.B     Ari      *    G.B Ari Dal Sea Det
  StL     G.B     S.F      *    G.B Dal Sea Ari Det
  StL     Det     Ari      *    Ari Det Dal Sea G.B
  StL     Det     S.F      *    Det Dal Sea Ari G.B

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk13), Tampa Bay, Chicago (Wk14), Minnesota, St.Louis, San Francisco (Wk15), New Orleans, Philadelphia (Wk16)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Dal 11-4 3-2 6-2 7-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi Wchi Wphi Wind @Was NYG-WW Phi-LW Was-L?

Common Opponents: NFC West, AFC South

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk12), Philadelphia (Wk16)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Det 11-4 5-0 5-3 9-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e Wchi Wt.b Wmin Wchi @G.B Chi-WW G.B-W? Min-WW
G.B 11-4 4-1 6-2 8-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin Wn.e Watl Lbuf Wt.b vDet Chi-WW Det-L? Min-WW

Common Opponents: NFC South, AFC East

Detroit @ Green Bay - Winner takes the division, loser is a Wild Card.

Eliminated: Chicago, Minnesota (Wk13)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Atl 06-9 5-0 0-8 6-5 Wt.b Wcar Lcle Wari Lg.b Lpit Wn.o vCar Car-W? N.O-WW T.B-WW
Car 06*8 3-2 3*4 5-6 Lphi Latl .bye Lmin Wn.o Wt.b Wcle @Atl Atl-L? N.O-L? T.B W?

Common Opponents: NFC North, AFC North

Eliminated: Tampa Bay (Wk13), New Orleans (Wk16)


Carolina @ Atlanta - Carolina clinches with a win or tie, Atlanta clinches with a win. Loser drafts 12th~.

pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Sea 11-4 4-1 5-3 9-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari Ws.f Wphi Ws.f Wari vStL Ari-WW S.F-W? StL-L?
Ari 11-4 3-2 7-1 8-3 Wstl Wdet Lsea Latl Wk.c Wstl Lsea @S.F S.F-W? Sea-LL StL-WW

Common Opponents: NFC East, AFC West

Sea@Ari StL@Sea Ari@S.F  NFCW Champ
------- ------- ------- -------------
  Sea     Sea      *    Seattle (2/8)
  Sea     StL     S.F   Seattle (1/8)
  Sea     StL     Ari   Arizona (1/8)

  Ari      *       *    Arizona (4/8)

Summary:

- Seattle clinches the NFCW UNLESS Wk17 ends with the Rams beating the Seahawks AND the Cards beating the Niners.

Eliminated: St. Louis (Wk14), San Francisco (Wk15)

kalensc fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Dec 22, 2014

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby


2015 Draft Order
pre:
## Tm.	Ovr W	Ovr L	Ovr %	SoS W	SoS L	SoS %  Max  Min
-- ---  -----   -----   -----   -----   -----   -----  ---  --- 
01 T.B	2	14	0.125	124.5	131.5	0.486  1st  2nd
02 TEN	2	14	0.125	129.5	126.5	0.506  1st  2nd
03 JAX	3	13	0.188	131.5	124.5	0.514  3rd  6th
04 OAK	3	13	0.188	146	110	0.570  3rd  6th
05 WAS	4	12	0.250	127	129	0.496  3rd  6th
06 NYJ	4	12	0.250	139	117	0.543  3rd  6th
07 CHI	5	11	0.313	135.5	120.5	0.529  7th  11th
08 ATL	6	10	0.375	123.5	132.5	0.482  7th  21st+ 
09 NYG	6	10	0.375	131	125	0.512  8th  14th
10 STL	6	10	0.375	136	120	0.531  8th  14th
11 MIN	7	9	0.438	121.5	134.5	0.475  7th  13th
12 CLE  7       9       0.438   122.5   133.5   0.479  9th  15th
13 N.O	7	9	0.438	124.5	131.5	0.486  7th  13th
14 MIA  8       8       0.500   131     125     0.512 
15 S.F  8       8       0.500   135     121     0.527  9th  19th
16 HOU  9       7       0.563   114.5   141.5   0.447
17*K.C  9       7       0.563   131     125     0.512
17*S.D  9       7       0.563   131     125     0.512
19 BUF  9       7       0.563   132     124     0.516
20 PHI  10      6       0.625   125.5   130.5   0.490
Here's a look at the SoS rankings through Week 15.

pre:
Team	Ovr W	Ovr L	Ovr %	SoS W	SoS L	SoS %
OAK	2	12	0.143	131	93	0.585
NYJ	3	11	0.214	123	101	0.549
S.F	7	7	0.500	121	103	0.540
STL	6	8	0.429	120	104	0.536
SEA	10	4	0.714	119.5	104.5	0.533
DEN	11	3	0.786	118.5	105.5	0.529
ARI	11	3	0.786	117	107	0.522
CHI	5	9	0.357	116.5	107.5	0.520
BUF	8	6	0.571	116	108	0.518
K.C	8	6	0.571	116	108	0.518
S.D	8	6	0.571	116	108	0.518
N.E	11	3	0.786	115.5	108.5	0.516
MIA	7	7	0.500	115	109	0.513
JAX	2	12	0.143	114.5	109.5	0.511
NYG	5	9	0.357	114	110	0.509
CIN	9.5	4.5	0.679	111.5	112.5	0.498
Was	3	11	0.214	111	113	0.496
TEN	2	12	0.143	110.5	113.5	0.493
CAR	5.5	8.5	0.393	110.5	113.5	0.493
ATL	5	9	0.357	108.5	115.5	0.484
G.B	10	4	0.714	108.5	115.5	0.484
T.B	2	12	0.143	107.5	116.5	0.480
N.O	6	8	0.429	107.5	116.5	0.480
MIN	6	8	0.429	106.5	117.5	0.475
PHI	9	5	0.643	106.5	117.5	0.475
BAL	9	5	0.643	105.5	118.5	0.471
DET	10	4	0.714	105.5	118.5	0.471
IND	10	4	0.714	105.5	118.5	0.471
CLE	7	7	0.500	104.5	119.5	0.467
PIT	9	5	0.643	101.5	122.5	0.453
DAL	10	4	0.714	100	124	0.446
HOU	7	7	0.500	99.5	124.5	0.444

And here's the rankings by Strength of Victory (SoV) through Week 15, sorted by number of wins for easier comparisons.
pre:
Team	Ovr W	Ovr L	Ovr %	SoV W	SoV L	SoV %
DEN	11	3	0.786	80	74	0.519
N.E	11	3	0.786	79.5	74.5	0.516
ARI	11	3	0.786	74	80	0.481
SEA	10	4	0.714	70.5	69.5	0.504
G.B	10	4	0.714	62.5	77.5	0.446
DAL	10	4	0.714	57	83	0.407
DET	10	4	0.714	55	85	0.393
IND	10	4	0.714	53.5	86.5	0.382
CIN	9.5	4.5	0.679	49	77	0.389
PIT	9	5	0.643	57	69	0.452
PHI	9	5	0.643	50.5	75.5	0.401
BAL	9	5	0.643	45.5	80.5	0.361
K.C	8	6	0.571	55	57	0.491
BUF	8	6	0.571	51	61	0.455
S.D	8	6	0.571	42	70	0.375
S.F	7	7	0.500	47	51	0.480
MIA	7	7	0.500	39	59	0.398
CLE	7	7	0.500	35.5	62.5	0.362
HOU	7	7	0.500	26	72	0.265
N.O	6	8	0.429	37.5	46.5	0.446
STL	6	8	0.429	35	49	0.417
MIN	6	8	0.429	24.5	59.5	0.292
CAR	5.5	8.5	0.393	25	45	0.357
ATL	5	9	0.357	26.5	43.5	0.379
CHI	5	9	0.357	23	47	0.329
NYG	5	9	0.357	20	50	0.286
Was	3	11	0.214	14	28	0.333
NYJ	3	11	0.214	13	29	0.310
OAK	2	12	0.143	15	13	0.536
JAX	2	12	0.143	12	16	0.429
T.B	2	12	0.143	12	16	0.429
TEN	2	12	0.143	10	18	0.357

kalensc fucked around with this message at 06:39 on Dec 29, 2014

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
Other References:

(More info coming soon)

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
Kicking this thread off early this year because Cleveland has inspired me. The Browns will be the first in-depth write-up, and then I'll follow with whoever is doing well in the polls one by one.

And it's a checkbox poll! Pick four!

Also drat the avatar someone got me is seizure-inducing and I need to replace it.

kalensc fucked around with this message at 05:27 on Nov 9, 2014

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Sunday, November 9th, 19h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 N.E 07-2 2-1 5-2 .bye @Ind vDet @G.B @S.D vMia @NYJ vBuf W-Den,Buf L-Mia
02 Den 07-2 3-0 5-1 Woak @Stl vMia @K.C vBuf @S.D @Cin vOak W-Ind,K.C,S.D L-N.E
03 Ind 06-3 3-0 5-2 .bye vN.E vJax vWas @Cle vHou @Dal @Ten W-Bal,Hou L-Den,Pit
04 Cle 06-3 2-2 4-3 Wcin vHou @Atl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal L-Bal WL-Pit

05 K.C 06-3 1-1 5-2 Wbuf vSea @Oak vDen @Ari vOak @Pit vS.D W-N.E,Mia,S.D,Buf L-Den
06 Cin 05*3 2-1 4-3 Lcle @N.O @Hou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit

   Pit 06-4 2-2 5-3 Lnyj @Ten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin W-Ind,Hou WL-Bal,Cle
   Bal 06-4 2-3 3-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle W-Cle L-Ind,Cinx2 WL-Pit
   S.D 05-4 1-2 4-3 .bye vOak vStL @Bal vN.E vDen @S.F @K.C W-Buf L-Den,Mia,K.C
   Buf 05-4 2-1 2-4 Lk.c @Mia @NYJ vCle @Den vG.B @Oak @N.E W-Mia L-N.E,S.D,Hou,K.C
   Mia 05-4 1-1 4-2 Ldet vBuf @Den @NYJ vBal @N.E vMin vNYJ W-N.E,S.D L-Buf,K.C
   Hou 04-5 1-1 3-2 .bye @Cle vCin vTen @Jax @Ind vBal vJax W-Buf,Ten L-Ind,Pit
   Ten 02-7 1-2 2-5 Lbal vPit @Phi @Hou vNYG vNYJ @Jax vInd W-Jax L-Hou 
   NYJ 02-8 0-2 2-5 Wpit .bye @Buf vMia @Min @Ten vN.E @Mia W-Oak
   Jax 01-9 0-2 1-6 Ldal .bye @Ind vNYG vHou @Bal vTen @Hou L-Ten
   Oak 00-9 0-2 0-7 Lden @S.D vK.C @StL vS.F @K.C vBuf @Den L-NYJ


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
N.E 07-2 2-1 4-1 5-2 .bye @Ind vDet @G.B @S.D vMia @NYJ	vBuf Buf-W? Mia-L? NYJ-W?
Buf 05-4 2-1 3-2 2-4 Lk.c @Mia @NYJ vCle @Den vG.B @Oak	@N.E 
Mia 05-4 1-1 3-3 4-2 Ldet vBuf @Den @NYJ vBal @N.E vMin	vNYJ Buf-L? N.E-W? NYJ-??
NYJ 02-8 0-2 1-6 2-5 Wpit .bye @Buf vMia @Min @Ten vN.E @Mia

Common Opponents: AFC West, NFC North
New England Patriots: They beat Peyton, but they have to face Luck, a top-3 defense, and Rodgers after their bye. If they manage to survive that stretch without Denver passing them then they'll be in great position for the #1 Seed. They also need to keep an eye on their division rivals, the Dolphins in particular due to Miami having that H2H win.

Buffalo Bills: They're hanging on despite QB inconsistency and RB injuries. They have a fairly tough schedule chock-full of games they'll be slight underdogs in. With that defense though, anything is possible. For a playoff spot though, they'll need to go 2-1 or better over the next three weeks, due to them playing the Broncos, Packers, and Patriots in December.

Miami Dolphins: They face a must-win vs Buffalo next week if they have AFCE title aspirations. Then they still have road matches at Denver and New England, so a Wild Card push will also be a stiff challenge.

New York Jets: The upset win over the Steelers causes some AFCN and Wild Card chaos but doesn't do much for the Jets besides harm their draft position.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------

Cle 06-3 2-2 3-1 4-3 Wcin vHou @Atl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL
Cin 05*3 2-1 3*1 4-3 Lcle @N.O @Hou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-??
Pit 06-4 2-2 4-2 5-3 Lnyj @Ten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL
Bal 06-4 2-3 4-1 3-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL

Common Opponents: AFC South, NFC South
Cleveland Browns: Cleveland has won 6 games, lost on last-second field goals to Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and been the sole victims of a Bortling. Looking down the line every game on the schedule is winnable and Josh Gordon is back in a few weeks, and the Jets win puts them alone in first place.

Cincinnati Bengals: An excellent start to the season has been quickly forgotten with a 2-3-1 swoon. Their tie makes tie-breakers moot, they just need to match teams in wins and let their tie do the rest. The AFCN could combine for 40 wins though, so they need to use their mini-bye to figure things out before they head to Louisiana.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have given the Buccaneers their only win and the Jets their only win versus a non-winless team. At 6-4 they are very much in the hunt for the AFCN title with a Wild Card as backup plan, but losing to the Jets really hurt their odds of earning a high seed.

Baltimore: The last-place Ravens would lead the NFCS outright and be a half-game behind the Colts in the AFCS. They already have 3 divisional losses which greatly hinders their hopes for a division title. That being said, they can still sweep Cleveland and Cincy can't tie them, so they'll be rooting hard for Cincy vs Pittsburgh. And just to be clear, there is no sane or logical reason for any Ravens fan to prefer Cincy tying Carolina over the Bengals losing. QED.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ind 06-3 3-0 3-2 5-2 .bye vN.E vJax vWas @Cle vHou @Dal @Ten Hou-W? Jax-W? Ten-W?
Hou 04-5 1-1 1-4 3-2 .bye @Cle vCin vTen @Jax @Ind vBal vJax Ind-L? Jax-?? Ten-W?
Ten 02-7 1-2 0-5 2-5 Lbal vPit @Phi @Hou vNYG vNYJ @Jax vInd Hou-L? Ind-L? Jax-W?
Jax 01-9 0-2 1-5 1-6 Ldal .bye @Ind vNYG vHou @Bal vTen @Hou Hou-?? Ind-L? Ten-L?

Common Opponents: AFC North, NFC East
Indianapolis Colts: Perfect in the division and 2 games up on the only real challenger, the Colts are arguably the team with the most comfortable divisional lead at the moment. If they win vHou in Wk15 then any combo of 3 other {Colts wins, Texans losses} would clinch.

Houston Texans: Every remaining game is versus AFC opponents and four of them are versus playoff contenders. They need Mallett to shine and Foster to get healthy to have a shot at squeaking into the postseason.

Tennessee Titans: Q: Remember the Titans? A: Not really. All jokes aside, the Titans are caught in that purgatory of not being very good nor being top-pick bad. With a weak late-season slate of opponents a 3-5 win season is looking quite likely so they might not even get a top-5 pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Hopefully Bortles makes some strides to finish the season. Top-3 pick is quite possible although their high SoS means they lose draft tie-breakers.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Den 07-2 3-0 3-2 5-1 Woak @Stl vMia @K.C vBuf @S.D @Cin vOak K.C-W? Oak-W? S.D-W?
K.C 06-3 1-1 5-1 5-2 Wbuf vSea @Oak vDen @Ari vOak @Pit vS.D Den-L? Oak-?? S.D-W?
S.D 05-4 1-2 3-2 4-3 .bye vOak vStL @Bal vN.E vDen @S.F @K.C Den-L? K.C-L? Oak-W?
Oak 00-9 0-2 0-5 0-7 Lden @S.D vK.C @StL vS.F @K.C vBuf @Den Den-L? K.C-?? S.D-L?

Common Opponents: AFC East, NFC West
Denver Broncos: The loss to the Patriots hurts their top seed hopes, but they remain in control the AFCW. They have a five-game stretch of playoff-caliber opponents though, with the @K.C and @S.D match-ups potentially having huge impacts on the division.

Kansas City Chiefs: Every remaining non-Oakland opponent is above .500 right now. They could be a better team than the middle-tier AFCN teams and still finish behind them due to SoS challenges. The path to the playoffs is not as smooth as it was in 2013.

San Diego Chargers: After the bye they have two games they'll be strongly favored in and then a winnable road game vs the Ravens. It's arguable they will need to sweep all three since their December line-up includes the Patriots, Broncos, and a season-ending road trip to Levi's and Arrowhead.

Oakland Raiders: To clinch the AFCW must: win out AND have Den lose out AND have K.C lose all but vDen AND have S.D lose all but vDen and @K.C. 4-way tie at 7-9 but with the a 4-2 divisional record the title goes to Oakland, whooooo!

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

wilderthanmild posted:

Oh boy, Browns fans get to talk about playoffs?!?!?!?!??!

Browns Games in Decreasing Order of Importance:
@Ravens - Division Opponent, Already Beat us Once, Probably going to have a better record than Cincy IMO. This could be a marquee match up if things keep going the way they have been the last few weeks.
Bengals -Division opponent.
@Bills - AFC opponent in the wildcard race. Always been a close game. Almost feels like a division game because we manage to play them every year.
Texans - AFC opponent in the wildcard race.
Colts - AFC opponent that will probably win their division, but could be in the WC race if they stink it up and/or Texans get hot.
@Panthers NFC Game. Not actually more important than Falcons game. If we're gonna have to lose games, either of these games hurts the least.
@Falcons NFC Game. Only notable thing about this game is it should be Josh Gordon's first game back.

I'd maybe swap Bills and Texans, but it's hard to tell. Bills are the ones with the better record at the moment though.

My Prediction

Wins:
Texans - We're hot right now and we've played pretty well at home this year. Biggest problem will obviously be preventing Watt from killing Hoyer.
@Falcons - I just want to believe we can beat a 3 win team. :unsmith:
Bengals - We've beat them in Cleveland the last few years, I hope we'll keep that going.
@Panthers - I just want to believe we can beat a 3 win team. :unsmith:

Losses:
@Bills - We seem to trade off year to year. Both teams are about even quality wise right now. They have the edge at home.
Colts - I just don't see us beating the Colts even if it's in Cleveland.
@Ravens - I don't think we'll win an important week 17 matchup on the road. Baltimore is more experienced in high pressure games and will probably win.

10-6 would get us in this time right? :ohdear:

Hopefully that's not too optimistic, but I want to believe.

Just wanted to mention that the Common Opponents record trumps Conference record when it comes to divisional tie-breakers.

Losing to the Bills would hurt less (purely whem comparing records with other AFCN teams) than to the Panthers for example.

If you're not tied with an AFCN team then yea you'd rather beat Buffalo than Carolina.

Also drat you Bengals for that tie. If all four AFCN teams were in position to finish tied with some/all of each other then the Week 17 scenarios would have been beyond ridiculous.

Last year no team was in control of their destiny for the sixth seed due to tiw-breaker magic. That would have seemed tame compared to Mia/Pit/Bal/Cle/Cin/K.C/S.D all within a wine of each other heading into the finale. Maybe Cincy can tie New Orleans. :unsmith:

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Monday, November 10th, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 Ari 08-1 2-0 6-0 Wstl vDet @Sea @Atl vK.C @StL vSea @S.F W-Phi,Dal,S.F
02 Det 07-2 2-0 5-1 Wmia @Ari @N.E vChi vT.B vMin @Chi @G.B W-G.B,N.O
03 Phi 07-2 2-0 4-2 Wcar @G.B vTen @Dal vSea vDal @Was @NYG L-Ari,S.F
04 N.O 04-5 2-1 4-4 Ls.f vCin vBal @Pit vCar @Chi vAtl @T.B W-G.B L-Dal,Det,S.F

05 Dal 07-3 1-1 4-3 Wjax .bye @NYG vPhi @Chi @Phi vInd @Was W-Sea,N.O L-Ari,S.F
06 Sea 06-3 0-1 4-2 Wnyg @K.C vAri @S.F @Phi vS.F @Ari vStL W-G.B L-Dal,StL

   G.B 06-3 3-1 4-3 Wchi vPhi @Min vN.E vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet W-Min,Chi L-Det,Sea,N.O
   S.F 05-4 1-2 4-3 Wn.o @NYG vWas vSea @Oak @Sea vS.D vAri W-Dal,Phi L-Ari,Chi,StL
   Min 04-5 0-2 4-3 .bye @Chi vG.B vCar vNYJ @Det @Mia vChi W-StL,Was,Atl L-Det,G.B,N.O
   Car 03*6 1-1 3-4 Lphi vAtl .bye @Min @N.O vT.B vCle @Atl 
   Atl 03-6 3-0 3-4 Wt.b @Car vCle vAri @G.B vPit @N.O vCar W-N.O L-Min,NYG,Chi,Det
   Chi 03-6 0-2 2-3 Lg.b vMin vT.B @Det vDal vN.O vDet @Min W-S.F,Atl L-G.B
   StL 03-6 2-2 3-5 Lari vDen @S.D vOak @Was vAri vNYG @Sea W-Sea,S.F,T.B
   NYG 03-6 1-2 2-5 Lsea vS.F vDal @Jax @Ten vWas @StL vPhi W-Was,Atl
   Was 03-6 1-2 1-5 .bye vT.B @S.F @Ind vStL @NYG vPhi vDal L-NYG,Min
   T.B 01-8 0-4 0-6 Latl @Was @Chi vCin @Det @Car vG.B vN.O L-StL,Atl


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 07-2 2-0 4-2 4-2 Wcar @G.B vTen @Dal vSea vDal @Was @NYG Dal-?? NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 06-3 1-1 4-2 4-3 Wjax .bye @NYG vPhi @Chi @Phi vInd @Was NYG-W? Phi-?? Was-L?
NYG 03-6 1-2 1-3 2-5 Lsea vS.F vDal @Jax @Ten vWas @StL vPhi Dal-L? Phi-L? Was-W?
Was 03-6 1-2 2-3 1-5 .bye vT.B @S.F @Ind vStL @NYG vPhi vDal Dal-W? NYG-L? Phi-L?

Common Opponents: NFC West, AFC South
Philadelphia Eagles: The loss to Arizona could have a large impact on seeding if both the teams finish high in the standings. With one less loss overall and in-division they're well-positioned versus Dallas, but they still have tough matches vs G.B and Sea. Note that the @G.B match is not a C.O game, so in terms of winning the NFCE losing it would hurt less than a loss to the Seahawks.

Dallas Cowboys: Time to rest. They will need to at least split with Philly and clean up versus the Giants and Skins to have a strong chance at the NFCE title.

New York Giants: They have a tough stretch of opponents coming up and they're heavily injured at WR and in the secondary. And Seattle ran for 350 yards on 45 carries. Crikey.

Washington Footballers: Colt McCoy guided them to a win over Dallas at JerryWorld. It's all downhill from there.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Det 07-2 2-0 4-2 5-1 Wmia @Ari @N.E vChi vT.B vMin @Chi @G.B Chi-?? G.B-W? Min-W?
G.B 06-3 3-1 3-1 4-3 Wchi vPhi @Min vN.E vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet Chi-W? Det-L? Min-WW
Min 04-5 0-2 2-3 4-3 .bye @Chi vG.B vCar vNYJ @Det @Mia vChi Chi-?? Det-L? G.B-L?
Chi 03-6 0-2 2-4 2-3 Lg.b vMin vT.B @Det vDal vN.O vDet @Min Det-?? G.B-LL Min

Common Opponents: NFC South, AFC East
Detroit: Another last-drive comeback to put themselves in position to take over the #1 Seed if they win @Ari. Scaling back to just the NFCN for a moment, the @Ari match-up has less of an impact on the NFCN race than @N.E or vT.B since it's not a C.O game, so it's the "losable" game as they try and maneuver towards a division title.

Green Bay: They keep pace with the Lions and have an easier schedule the next two weeks so tying them in wins is quite possible before long. They will almost certainly need to win in Wk17 if they want to win the NFCN title. Besides that they will want to maintain a better C.O record, which makes the vPhi game "losable" and the following 4 games all very key.

Minnesota: The Vikings are beating expectations so far and they have quite a favorable schedule the next five weeks. A division title push is unlikely but .500 is well within reach.

Chicago: The Bears are fading fast and the Wild Card teams keep pulling away. Two home games against sub-.500 teams are next, if they can't sweep those matches then it's time to analyze the draft.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
N.O 04-5 2-1 2-2 4-4 Ls.f vCin vBal @Pit vCar @Chi vAtl @T.B Atl-L? Car-W? T.B-W?
Car 03*6 1-1 2*3 3-4 Lphi vAtl .bye @Min @N.O vT.B vCle @Atl Atl-?? N.O-L? T.B W?
Atl 03-6 3-0 0-5 3-4 Wt.b @Car vCle vAri @G.B vPit @N.O vCar Car-?? N.O-W? T.B-W?
T.B 01-8 0-4 1-3 0-6 Latl @Was @Chi vCin @Det @Car vG.B vN.O Atl-L? Car-L? N.O-L?

Common Opponents: NFC North, AFC North
New Orleans: Their closest rival in the standings is Carolina but their biggest threat could conceivably be Atlanta due to the Falcons holding a H2H win over them. Now they face a gauntlet of AFCN teams who are all winning over 60% of their matches thus far.

Carolina: One win in the last eight games, a malfunctioning offense, and an employed Shula. Somehow they remain a half game back of the division lead, and 7-9 or better is looking like it could win the NFCS.

Atlanta: They could conceivably finish 6-0 in the division and 0-10 outside of it. Root for history! Seriously though, if they beat N.O again they'd have the tie-breaker, so seven wins might be enough. Hell, six wins miiiiiiight be enough.

Tampa Bay: Even in the terrible NFCS they are falling far behind. With the Jets upsetting Pittsburgh, the Bucs are a Raiders win away from assuming the #1 draft position.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ari 08-1 2-0 6-1 6-0 Wstl vDet @Sea @Atl vK.C @StL vSea @S.F S.F-W? Sea-?? StL-??
Sea 06-3 0-1 4-2 4-2 Wnyg @K.C vAri @S.F @Phi vS.F @Ari vStL Ari-?? S.F-?? StL-L?
S.F 05-4 1-2 3-1 4-3 Wn.o @NYG vWas vSea @Oak @Sea vS.D vAri Ari-L? Sea-?? StL-WL
StL 03-6 2-2 0-3 3-5 Lari vDen @S.D vOak @Was vAri vNYG @Sea Ari-?? S.F-WL Sea-W?

Common Opponents: NFC East, AFC West
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have played phenomenally played despite QB injuries (note that this was written before Palmer went down again). They still have 4 divisional games to go though, so they have a lot of work left to do to win the division. If they can at least split vs Seattle then things will be rosy in the NFCW. If Stanton and the defense can lead them to a win vs Detroit then they'll be in fantastic position for a top 2 seed.

Seattle Seahawks: They control their destiny though (yeah we're breaking out that phrase already) since they have yet to play Arizona. Three tough road games loom though, with their first Cards match-up sandwiched in there. Quite the gauntlet to overcome, but wins vAri, @S.F, and one of @K.C/@Phi would put them in solid standing.

San Francisco 49ers: Two divisional losses already, but no teams over .500 on the schedule for a month. The win at New Orleans was key but they gained no ground on Arizona or Seattle. It's looking likely that their playoff hopes lie in the Wild Card.

St.Louis Rams: Their fourth-quarter collapse to the Cards means they could be eliminated from the NFCW race before Thanksgiving. The only real questions left are: "Can they play spoiler in the NFCW yet again?" & "Could they lose to Oakland?"

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
Here's a look at the SoS rankings. The NFCW and AFCW has the toughest scheduling (they play each other) and the AFCN and NFCN have the easiest (they play the NFCS).

pre:
Team	SoS W	SoS L	SoS %
----    -----   -----   -----
OAK	87	58	0.600
STL	81	65	0.555
NYJ	80	65	0.552
SEA	79.5	67.5	0.541
NYG	79	70	0.530
S.F	79	67	0.541
JAX	77.5	70.5	0.524
CHI	76.5	70.5	0.520
BUF	76	70	0.521
ARI	76	70	0.521
CIN	74.5	75.5	0.497
DEN	74.5	70.5	0.514
S.D	74	73	0.503
Was	74	73	0.503
N.E	73.5	72.5	0.503
TEN	73.5	77.5	0.487
MIA	73	75	0.493
K.C	73	73	0.500
CAR	72.5	73.5	0.497
IND	71.5	78.5	0.477
G.B	71.5	74.5	0.490
ATL	71.5	76.5	0.483
PHI	70.5	79.5	0.470
N.O	70.5	78.5	0.473
T.B	70.5	78.5	0.473
BAL	69.5	78.5	0.470
MIN	68.5	78.5	0.466
DAL	68	79	0.463
PIT	67.5	81.5	0.453
DET	67.5	78.5	0.462
HOU	66.5	83.5	0.443
CLE	64.5	85.5	0.430
And here's the rankings by Strength of Victory (SoV; the total number of wins of the opponents they have defeated). The SoV alone is only really useful when comparing teams with an identical number of wins. I've added the W-L record as well; relatively small Ovr W numbers at the top (S.F) means they're tending to defeat quite strong teams, whereas relatively large Ovr W numbers at the bottom (Atl) means they're tending to only win vs the minnows of the league.

pre:
Team	Ovr W	Ovr L	Ovr %	SoV W	SoV L	SoV %
----    -----   -----   -----   -----   -----   -----
ARI	8	1	0.889	33	41	0.446
DEN	7	2	0.778	32	32	0.500
S.F	5	4	0.556	27	19	0.587
K.C	6	3	0.667	27	28	0.491
DET	7	2	0.778	27	37	0.422
N.E	7	2	0.778	26.5	37.5	0.414
PIT	6	4	0.600	26.5	30.5	0.465
PHI	7	2	0.778	23.5	42.5	0.356
DAL	7	3	0.700	23	41	0.359
SEA	6	3	0.667	22.5	33.5	0.402
IND	6	3	0.667	21.5	34.5	0.384
BAL	6	4	0.600	21.5	34.5	0.384
BUF	5	4	0.556	21	25	0.457
G.B	6	3	0.667	20.5	35.5	0.366
CLE	6	3	0.667	18.5	36.5	0.336
CIN	5.5	3.5	0.611	18	30	0.375
MIA	5	4	0.556	16	30	0.348
N.O	4	5	0.444	14.5	22.5	0.392
S.D	5	4	0.556	14	33	0.298
STL	3	6	0.333	12	15	0.444
CAR	3.5	6.5	0.350	11	16	0.407
NYG	3	6	0.333	10	18	0.357
CHI	3	6	0.333	10	18	0.357
Was	3	7	0.300	10	19	0.345
MIN	4	5	0.444	10	27	0.270
HOU	4	5	0.444	10	27	0.270
TEN	2	7	0.222	7	12	0.368
NYJ	2	8	0.200	6	13	0.316
JAX	1	9	0.100	6	3	0.667
ATL	3	6	0.333	6	21	0.222
T.B	1	8	0.111	6	4	0.600
OAK	0	9	0.000	0	0	0.000

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Blitz7x posted:

This... This is the worst chart

I am very sorry for the unrelenting bad news I will bring you, Toymachine, and the other Raiders fans in the coming weeks.

Positive spin: The Raiders were competitive, or within one score, in several matches so far (Patriots, Seahawks, etc). Against an easier schedule you may have ended up 4-12 and drafted fifth. With this tough schedule you get to (a) earn a high (possibly 1st) pick while developing the younger players, and (b) save* your easier schedules for a future year when that youth development in producing on-field results.

* - Caveat: future SoS is blindfolded darts, but it can't get much tougher than this!

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
Based on the voting, higher votes = home team:

The most desired AFC Championship: Buffalo @ Cleveland
2nd most desired AFC Championship: New England @ Denver
The nobody cares AFC Championship: Houston vs Miami

The most desired NFC Championship: Detroit @ Arizona
2nd most desired NFC Championship: Green Bay @ Philadelphia
The nobody cares NFC Championship: New Orleans @ Carolina

Get hyped for possible NFC Championship previews this weekend I guess!

Over 60% of voters have made Cleveland one of their four choices. Don't let the world down now, Browns.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Sunday, November 16th, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 Ari 09-1 2-0 7-0 Wstl Wdet @Sea @Atl vK.C @StL vSea @S.F W-Phi,Dal,Det,S.F
02 Det 07-3 2-0 5-2 Wmia Lari @N.E vChi vT.B vMin @Chi @G.B W-G.B,N.O L-Ari
03 Phi 07-3 2-0 4-3 Wcar Lg.b vTen @Dal vSea vDal @Was @NYG L-Ari,S.F, G.B
04 Atl 04-6 4-0 4-4 Wt.b Wcar vCle vAri @G.B vPit @N.O vCar W-N.O L-Min,NYG,Chi,Det

05 G.B 07-3 3-1 5-3 Wchi Wphi @Min vN.E vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet W-Min,Chi,Phi L-Det,Sea,N.O
05 Dal 07-3 1-1 4-3 Wjax .bye @NYG vPhi @Chi @Phi vInd @Was W-Sea,N.O L-Ari,S.F

   S.F 06-4 1-2 5-3 Wn.o Wnyg vWas vSea @Oak @Sea vS.D vAri W-Dal,Phi L-Ari,Chi,StL
   Sea 06-4 0-1 4-2 Wnyg Lk.c vAri @S.F @Phi vS.F @Ari vStL W-G.B L-Dal,StL
   N.O 04-6 2-1 4-4 Ls.f Lcin vBal @Pit vCar @Chi vAtl @T.B W-G.B L-Dal,Det,S.F
   Chi 04-6 1-2 2-3 Lg.b Wmin vT.B @Det vDal vN.O vDet @Min W-S.F,Atl,Min L-G.B
   Min 04-6 0-3 4-4 .bye Lchi vG.B vCar vNYJ @Det @Mia vChi W-StL,Was,Atl L-Det,G.B,N.O,Chi
   StL 04-6 2-2 3-5 Lari Wden @S.D vOak @Was vAri vNYG @Sea W-Sea,S.F,T.B
   Car 03*7 1-2 3-5 Lphi Latl .bye @Min @N.O vT.B vCle @Atl 
   NYG 03-7 1-2 2-6 Lsea Ls.f vDal @Jax @Ten vWas @StL vPhi W-Was,Atl
   Was 03-7 1-2 1-6 .bye Lt.b @S.F @Ind vStL @NYG vPhi vDal L-NYG,Min,T.B
   T.B 02-8 0-4 1-6 Latl Wwas @Chi vCin @Det @Car vG.B vN.O W-Was L-StL,Atl


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 07-3 2-0 4-2 4-3 Wcar Lg.b vTen @Dal vSea vDal @Was @NYG Dal-?? NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 07-3 1-1 5-2 4-3 Wjax .bye @NYG vPhi @Chi @Phi vInd @Was NYG-W? Phi-?? Was-L?
NYG 03-7 1-2 1-4 2-6 Lsea Ls.f vDal @Jax @Ten vWas @StL vPhi Dal-L? Phi-L? Was-W?
Was 03-7 1-2 2-3 1-6 .bye Lt.b @S.F @Ind vStL @NYG vPhi vDal Dal-W? NYG-L? Phi-L?

Common Opponents: NFC West, AFC South
Philadelphia Eagles: Despite the big loss to Green Bay, Philly is well-positioned to win the NFCE. This does rely on two assumptions though: earn at least a split with Dallas, and match Dallas' record in the other 2 NFCE match-ups both teams have remaining. Doing so would give them the divisional record tie-breaker, and their non-NFCE games (vTen, vSea) look easier than Dallas' (@Chi, vInd).

Dallas Cowboys: See Philly's breakdown. To surpass the Eagles the Cowboys either need to sweep the H2H series, or win more than Phi in the other two div matches, or win more than Phi in the out-of-division games.

New York Giants: They'll need to win out, and hope Dallas and Philly split their games, and then lose almost all of the others. It's time to scout the draft.

Washington Footballers: They'll need to win out, and hope Dallas and Philly split their games, and then lose almost all of the others. .It's time to scout the draft.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Det 07-3 2-0 4-2 5-2 Wmia Lari @N.E vChi vT.B vMin @Chi @G.B Chi-?? G.B-W? Min-W?
G.B 07-3 3-1 3-1 5-3 Wchi Wphi @Min vN.E vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet Chi-W? Det-L? Min-WW
Chi 04-6 1-2 2-4 3-3 Lg.b Wmin vT.B @Det vDal vN.O vDet @Min Det-?? G.B-LL Min-W?
Min 04-6 0-3 2-3 4-4 .bye Lchi vG.B vCar vNYJ @Det @Mia vChi Chi-L? Det-L? G.B-L?

Common Opponents: NFC South, AFC East
Detroit: Detroit draws the short straw and travels to Foxboro whereas G.B gets to host the Pats the following week. The Lions, due to their win vs G.B earlier in the season, could head into Week 17 one game behind and still be win-and-in. So wins vChi, vT.B, vMin, and @Chi would leave them in control of their destiny. Lose a second game in addition to @N.E and then they'll need some help from Packers' opponents.

Green Bay: Two divisional and four C.O games remain and it is highly possible the NFCN will be decided by tie-breakers. If they can win @Min then they lock up a 4-1 NFCN record heading into vDet. If they can also maintain a 1+ game lead in C.O record, and match the Lions win for win, then the vDet game becomes win-and-in.

Chicago: The Bears stabilized a bit with a win vs the Vikings, and they need a repeat performance vs the Bucs to have a glimmer of hope before their tough Lions and Cowboys matches.

Minnesota: Any hopes of a surprise playoff push hinge on winning vG.B next week. Losing that would put them in "look to the draft" mode.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Atl 04-6 4-0 0-5 4-4 Wt.b Wcar vCle vAri @G.B vPit @N.O vCar Car-W? N.O-W? T.B-W?
N.O 04-6 2-1 2-3 4-4 Ls.f Lcin vBal @Pit vCar @Chi vAtl @T.B Atl-L? Car-W? T.B-W?
Car 03*7 1-2 2*3 3-5 Lphi Latl .bye @Min @N.O vT.B vCle @Atl Atl-L? N.O-L? T.B W?
T.B 02-8 0-4 1-3 1-6 Latl Wwas @Chi vCin @Det @Car vG.B vN.O Atl-L? Car-L? N.O-L?

Common Opponents: NFC North, AFC North
Atlanta: They could conceivably finish 6-0 in the division and 0-10 outside of it. Root for history! Seriously though, if they beat N.O again they'd have the tie-breaker, so seven wins might be enough. Hell, six wins miiiiiiight be enough.

New Orleans: Two home losses have the Saints tumbling to second in the division. They have 4 sub-.500 opponents left vs Atlanta's 2, so if N.O can win vAtl they have the easier path to the NFCS title. 7-9 should be enough given those facts.

Carolina: One win in the last nine games, a malfunctioning offense, and an employed Shula. If the AFCN can beat Atl and N.O next week though, they'll still only be a half-game behind, and 4 sub-.500 opponents remain.

Tampa Bay: Despite being only two games out, their terrible divisional record and the remaining Atl@N.O match makes their hopes quite slim.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ari 09-1 2-0 7-1 7-0 Wstl Wdet @Sea @Atl vK.C @StL vSea @S.F S.F-W? Sea-?? StL-??
S.F 06-4 1-2 4-1 4-3 Wn.o Wnyg vWas vSea @Oak @Sea vS.D vAri Ari-L? Sea-?? StL-WL
Sea 06-4 0-1 4-3 4-2 Wnyg Lk.c vAri @S.F @Phi vS.F @Ari vStL Ari-?? S.F-?? StL-L?
StL 04-6 2-2 1-3 3-5 Lari Wden @S.D vOak @Was vAri vNYG @Sea Ari-?? S.F-WL Sea-W?

Common Opponents: NFC East, AFC West
Arizona Cardinals: In fantastic position for the NFCW title, a bye, and the #1 Seed. Their schedule is tough though, with lots of road games and stiff divisional match-ups. The result @Sea will go a long way to deciding if they're focusing on the #1 Seed or looking over their shoulder a bit.

San Francisco 49ers: Another win over a team they were expected to beat, although it was closer than it should have been considering the turnovers. With 2 NFCW losses already on the boards, their push for the division title essentially requires them to win out in-division and hope Ari drops another NFCW game to Sea or StL.

Seattle Seahawks: After a close loss they head home to face the 9-1 Cards before a tough road swing @S.F and @Phi. If they can sweep the Cards and win @S.F they have a great shot at the division though, so a three-game deficit is not quite a nail in the coffin.

St.Louis Rams: Another shocking upset, if only they could beat the lower-ranked squads. 5 games out of the divison lead and 3 games behind the 6th Seed, they appear likely for a pick in the teens.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Sunday, November 16th, 23h30
(Partial updates after SNF, complete updates after MNF)


pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 N.E 08-2 2-1 6-2 .bye Wind vDet @G.B @S.D vMia @NYJ vBuf W-Den,Buf,Ind L-Mia
02 Den 07-3 3-0 5-1 Woak Lstl vMia @K.C vBuf @S.D @Cin vOak W-Ind,K.C,S.D L-N.E
03 Cin 06*3 2-1 4-3 Lcle Wn.o @Hou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit
04 Ind 06-4 3-0 5-3 .bye Ln.e vJax vWas @Cle vHou @Dal @Ten W-Bal,Hou L-Den,Pit,N.E

05 K.C 07-3 1-1 5-2 Wbuf Wsea @Oak vDen @Ari vOak @Pit vS.D W-N.E,Mia,S.D,Buf L-Den
06 Mia 06-4 2-1 5-2 Ldet Wbuf @Den @NYJ vBal @N.E vMin vNYJ W-N.E,S.D L-K.C WL-Buf

   S.D 06-4 2-2 5-3 .bye Woak vStL @Bal vN.E vDen @S.F @K.C W-Buf L-Den,Mia,K.C
   Bal 06-4 2-3 3-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle W-Cle L-Ind,Cinx2 WL-Pit
   Pit 06-4 2-2 5-3 Lnyj @Ten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin W-Ind,Hou WL-Bal,Cle
   Cle 06-4 2-2 4-4 Wcin Lhou @Atl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal L-Bal WL-Pit
   Hou 05-5 1-1 4-2 .bye Wcle vCin vTen @Jax @Ind vBal vJax W-Buf,Ten L-Ind,Pit
   Buf 05-5 2-2 2-5 Lk.c Lmia @NYJ vCle @Den vG.B @Oak @N.E L-N.E,S.D,Hou,K.C WL-Mia
   Ten 02-7 1-2 2-5 Lbal vPit @Phi @Hou vNYG vNYJ @Jax vInd W-Jax L-Hou 
   NYJ 02-8 0-2 2-5 Wpit .bye @Buf vMia @Min @Ten vN.E @Mia
   Jax 01-9 0-2 1-6 Ldal .bye @Ind vNYG vHou @Bal vTen @Hou L-Ten

Eliminated: Oakland (Wk11)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
N.E 08-2 2-1 4-1 6-2 .bye Wind vDet @G.B @S.D vMia @NYJ	vBuf Buf-W? Mia-L? NYJ-W?
Mia 06-4 2-1 3-3 5-2 Ldet Wbuf @Den @NYJ vBal @N.E vMin	vNYJ Buf-LW N.E-W? NYJ-??
Buf 05-5 2-2 3-2 2-5 Lk.c Lmia @NYJ vCle @Den vG.B @Oak	@N.E Mia-WL N.E-L? NYJ-W?
NYJ 02-8 0-2 1-6 2-5 Wpit .bye @Buf vMia @Min @Ten vN.E @Mia Buf-L? Mia-?? N.E-L?

Common Opponents: AFC West, NFC North
New England Patriots: Effectively 1.5 games ahead for the #1 Seed due to tie-breakers. The schedule doesn't get easier for a while though, the next three opponents have 20 wins combined. A win vs the Lions with a Miami loss @Den would put them on the cusp of another division title though.

Miami Dolphins: The Colts couldn't do much to help, so Miami is still much more likely to qualify via Wild Card than as AFCE champion. Denver looks mortal all of a sudden though, and New England does have three tough opponents lined up, so there's still hope.

Buffalo Bills: While 5-5 would lead the NFCS by a full game, the Bills are currently 12th in the AFC and have terrible tie-breaker stats. 5-1 finish is all but required to sniff the playoffs.

New York Jets: The upset win over the Steelers causes some AFCN and Wild Card chaos but doesn't do much for the Jets besides harm their draft position.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------

Cin 06*3 2-1 4*1 4-3 Lcle Wn.o @Hou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-??
Bal 06-4 2-3 4-1 3-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL
Pit 06-4 2-2 4-2 5-3 Lnyj @Ten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL
Cle 06-4 2-2 3-2 4-4 Wcin Lhou @Atl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL

Common Opponents: AFC South, NFC South
Cincinnati Bengals: Bouncing back vs the Saints puts the Bengals back on top pending the Pittsburgh game. With such a tight four-way race it's simple for now: just win, baby.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pending MNF.

Baltimore: Not bad for a bye week with their rivals going 1-1 so far. A trip to Louisiana is potentially not as bad as we thought a few weeks ago, what with the Niners and Bengals leaving town with a W.

Cleveland Browns: From first to last in one Sunday, ouch. Still just a half-game back though, with two winnable road games coming up. Every team has 2-3 games left vs sub-.500 opponents, so it should take 10+ wins to win this division.


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ind 06-4 3-0 3-2 5-3 .bye Ln.e vJax vWas @Cle vHou @Dal @Ten Hou-W? Jax-W? Ten-W?
Hou 05-5 1-1 2-4 4-2 .bye Wcle vCin vTen @Jax @Ind vBal vJax Ind-L? Jax-?? Ten-W?
Ten 02-7 1-2 0-5 2-5 Lbal vPit @Phi @Hou vNYG vNYJ @Jax vInd Hou-L? Ind-L? Jax-W?
Jax 01-9 0-2 1-5 1-6 Ldal .bye @Ind vNYG vHou @Bal vTen @Hou Hou-?? Ind-L? Ten-L?

Common Opponents: AFC North, NFC East
Indianapolis Colts: If they win vHou in Wk15 then any combo of 3 other {Colts wins, Texans losses} would clinch.

Houston Texans: A small but great step was taken in Week 11. Now they have two home games which they'll need to sweep when you consider the Colts' opponents.

Tennessee Titans: Pending MNF.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Hopefully Bortles makes some strides to finish the season. Top-3 pick is quite possible although their high SoS means they lose draft tie-breakers.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Den 07-3 3-0 3-3 5-1 Woak Lstl vMia @K.C vBuf @S.D @Cin vOak K.C-W? Oak-W? S.D-W?
K.C 07-3 1-1 6-1 5-2 Wbuf Wsea @Oak vDen @Ari vOak @Pit vS.D Den-L? Oak-?? S.D-W?
S.D 06-4 2-2 3-2 5-3 .bye Woak vStL @Bal vN.E vDen @S.F @K.C Den-L? K.C-L? Oak-W?

Common Opponents: AFC East, NFC West

Eliminated: Oakland (Wk11)
Denver Broncos: Denver hasn't looked great for a while now, aside from a second half destruction of the Raiders. Five straight .500 or better teams are all going to have the Patriots and Rams games as blueprints for beating the Broncos. Denver's road games @K.C and @S.D are suddenly incredibly significant.

Kansas City Chiefs: They were more or less here one year ago, tied in record with the Broncos with another H2H match upcoming. Still, besides the Oakland games, you have 4 division leaders/contenders left to play.

San Diego Chargers: The door opened a crack with Denver's loss. S.D is in bad shape vs Denver in divisional tie-breakers and in bad shape vs K.C in C.O tie-breakers. They'll likely need to finish 5-1 or better and get help (or 4-2 and get tons of help), which is a tough path considering their schedule.

Oakland Raiders: Eliminated from playoff contention.

Blitz7x posted:

When you go to write up the Raiders just post a bunch of pics of buttholes close up, same thing

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Fenrir posted:

Man, the AFC North is crazy. I can't remember the last time I saw all 4 teams in a division so close this late in a season.

e: Speaking of which, I know this is splitting hairs but I'm curious about the tiebreak procedure here:

Since the Ravens and Steelers split against each other, shouldn't the Steelers be ahead of the Ravens on tiebreaks due to the better division record?

Since Cleveland is also 6-4, the 3-way tie-breaker is applied.

In Bal-Cle, Cle-Pit, Bal-Pit games (i.e. toss out Cincy results) the three teams are:

Bal: 2-1
Pit: 2-2
Cle: 1-2

Cleveland really needs to beat Baltimore latee this year if the three teams stay this close.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Eifert Posting posted:

Pit will finish 2-4 in the division.

What if one of them gets flexed to primetime?

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
Wish I could embed the top 4 or 6 of these in the poll and re-do the vote that way.

Pittsburgh's result is reflected in the OP now, and the 3rd post has updated SoS and SoV values.

Gonna be taking some long train rides tomorrow, so I'll start some "every scenario" breakdowns for the simpler divisions (so definitely not the AFCN, AFCW, or NFCS).

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
Don't forget that for wild card ties you first resolve divisional tiebreakers (H2H, then Common Opponents, then Conference) to only have one team per division, then you compare teams between divisions.

Since the schedule is so back-heavy with divisional games, a collapsing team will very likely have a bad divisional record, and a surging team a good one. So in a multi-way tie for a wild card which includes 2+ teams from the same division, a poor divisional record could eliminate you from coming close. This makes scenarios like the Detroit one feasible in a number of ways.

If you remember last season's AFC madness on Week 17, most of it was due to Bal & Pit and Mia & NYJ potentially tying in overall record.

If this year's tight race continues, you could see an even more complicated scenario chart come to be.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Kawalimus posted:

I'll admit that there's no reason to outright prefer a tie to a loss by the Bengals if you're the Ravens, but I think it's arguable that the tie in that scenario is just about equal to a loss. In a head-to-head situation the tie can't possibly save them from the Ravens but can only hurt them.

However the Ravens will likely not be in the division race at the end of the season so it's moot. I predict the Steelers will win the division by a couple games.

Disclaimer: Didn't really review it so there might be a small mistake which wrecks the whole thing, but the concept is what matters.

OK, I will now provide one of the very few situations where Kawalimus could be retroactively redeemed for appreciating the tie.

And it also happens to be where the Browns REALLY hate that tie and just want to die.

pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------

Cin 06*3 2-1 4*1 4-3 Lcle Wn.o @Hou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-??
Pit 07-4 2-2 5-1 6-3 Lnyj Wten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL
Bal 06-4 2-3 4-1 3-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL
Cle 06-4 2-2 3-2 4-4 Wcin Lhou @Atl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL
Suppose the Bengals had lost that game:

pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------

Pit 07-4 2-2 5-1 6-3 Lnyj Wten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL
Cin 06-4 2-1 4-2 4-3 Lcle Wn.o @Hou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-??
Bal 06-4 2-3 4-1 3-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL
Cle 06-4 2-2 3-2 4-4 Wcin Lhou @Atl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL
Also suppose that Baltimore beats Cleveland to sweep them, Cleveland beats Cincinnati to sweep them, and Cincy splits with Pittsburgh.

pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Bal 07-4 3-3 4-1 4-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou Wcle Cin-LL Cle-WW Pit-WL
Pit 08-5 3-3 5-1 7-4 Lnyj Wten .bye vN.O Lcin @Atl vK.C Wcin Bal-WL Cin-WL Cle-WL
Cle 07-5 3-3 3-2 5-5 Wcin Lhou @Atl @Buf vInd Wcin @Car Lbal Bal-LL Cin-WW Pit-WL
Cin 07-6 3-3 4-2 5-5 Lcle Wn.o @Hou @T.B Wpit Lcle vDen Lpit Bal-WW Cle-LL Pit-WL
Then suppose the rest of the following results occur to arrive at these final standings:

pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Cle 10-6 3-3 6-2 6-6 Wcin Lhou Watl Lbuf Wind Wcin Wcar Lbal Bal-LL Cin-WW Pit-WL
Cin 10-6 3-3 6-2 7-5 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b Wpit Lcle Wden Lpit Bal-WW Cle-LL Pit-WL
Pit 10-6 3-3 6-2 8-4 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Lcin Watl WK.C Wcin Bal-WL Cin-WL Cle-WL
Bal 10-6 3-3 5-3 7-5 Wten .bye Ln.o Ws.d Wmia Wjax Lhou Wcle Cin-LL Cle-WW Pit-WL
The tie-breakers would go:

Who is 1st in the AFCN, guaranteed playoff spot:
1) H2H amongst the 4 teams (Still tied, all 3-3)
2) Division record (Still tied, all 3-3)
3) C.O record (Pit & Cin & Cle 6-2, Bal 5-3, Pit & Cin & Cle move on)
~restart the tie-breaker process with 3 remaining teams~
4) H2H amongst the 3 teams (Cle 3-1, Pit 2-2, Cin 1-3, Browns win AFCN)

Who is 2nd in the AFCN, potential Wild Card:
5) H2H amongst the 3 teams (Cin 3-1, Pit 2-2, Bal 1-3, Bengals are 2nd)

Who is 3rd in the AFCN, potential Wild Card:
6) H2H amongst the 2 teams (Tied, 1-1)
7) Division record (Tied, 3-3)
8) C.O record (Pit 6-2, Bal 5-3, Steelers are 3rd)

Who is 4th in the AFCN, drafting around 20th overall:
9) (Ravens are 4th)




And if instead of that 4-way tie, all of these future results occur in our reality?

pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Cin 10*5 3-3 6*1 7-5 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b Wpit Lcle Wden Lpit Bal-WW Cle-LL Pit-WL
Bal 10-6 3-3 5-3 7-5 Wten .bye Ln.o Ws.d Wmia Wjax Lhou Wcle Cin-LL Cle-WW Pit-WL
Pit 10-6 3-3 6-2 8-4 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Lcin Watl WK.C Wcin Bal-WL Cin-WL Cle-WL
Cle 10-6 3-3 6-2 6-6 Wcin Lhou Watl Lbuf Wind Wcin Wcar Lbal Bal-LL Cin-WW Pit-WL
Who is 2nd in the AFCN, potential Wild Card:
1) H2H amongst the 3 teams (Bal 3-1, Pit 2-2, Cle 1-3, Ravens are 2nd)

Who is 3rd in the AFCN, potential Wild Card:
2) H2H amongst the 2 teams (Tied, 1-1)
3) Division record (Tied, 3-3)
4) C.O record (Tied, 6-2)
5) Conference record (Pit 8-4, Cle 6-6, Steelers are 3rd)

Who is 4th in the AFCN, drafting around 20th overall:
6) (Browns are 4th)

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
Assuming the above isn't fatally flawed logic:

In exchange for validating you (in a 1 in a some-massive-number long-shot) Kawalimus, I hereby politely request that for an entire week after the Ravens' next win you will post with a positive attitude regarding the Ravens' postseason hopes.

If the Ravens lose until they are eliminated from the playoffs, well, there's always cool birds to find.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Bigass Moth posted:

What is the fewest number of games Cleveland must win to lock ]p a wild card spot?

Without running the numbers or playoff machine, I think 5-1 is the minimum to ensure a spot. Even then there might be a way to gimmick tie-breakers (see earlier post) to keep an 11-5 team out a la New England in' 08.

Of course I'd other teams stumble 8-8 could make it in as well, but that's just as unlikely as 12-4 being the bar to clear.

I'll try a complete Cleveland analysis after this weekend, once every team has had their bye and have the same number of remaininf games it becomes easier to generate scenario groups.

kalensc fucked around with this message at 13:34 on Nov 20, 2014

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

ChickenMedium posted:

Did the Denver game get moved to 1:00pm Sunday and no one told me? Dalton will melt down and the Bengals are going to get embarrassed by the Broncos.

To be fair if Eifert's still in Korea then it's like a 7am game or something.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Monday, November 24th, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 Ari 09-2 2-1 7-1 Wstl Wdet Lsea @Atl vK.C @StL vSea @S.F W-Phi,Dal,Det,S.F L-Sea
02 G.B 08-3 4-1 6-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin vN.E vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet W-Min,Chi,Phi L-Det,Sea,N.O
03 Phi 08-3 2-0 4-3 Wcar Lg.b Wten @Dal vSea vDal @Was @NYG L-Ari,S.F, G.B
04 Atl 04-7 4-0 4-4 Wt.b Wcar Lcle vAri @G.B vPit @N.O vCar W-N.O L-Min,NYG,Chi,Det

05 Dal 08-3 2-1 5-3 Wjax .bye Wnyg vPhi @Chi @Phi vInd @Was W-Sea,N.O L-Ari,S.F
06 Sea 07-4 1-1 5-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari @S.F @Phi vS.F @Ari vStL W-G.B L-Dal,StL

   Det 07-4 2-0 5-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e vChi vT.B vMin @Chi @G.B W-G.B,N.O L-Ari
   S.F 07-4 1-2 6-3 Wn.o Wnyg Wwas vSea @Oak @Sea vS.D vAri W-Dal,Phi L-Ari,Chi,StL

   Chi 05-6 1-2 3-3 Lg.b Wmin Wt.b @Det vDal vN.O vDet @Min W-S.F,Atl,Min L-G.B
   N.O 04-7 2-1 4-4 Ls.f Lcin Lbal @Pit vCar @Chi vAtl @T.B W-G.B L-Dal,Det,S.F
   Min 04-7 0-4 4-5 .bye Lchi Lg.b vCar vNYJ @Det @Mia vChi W-StL,Was,Atl L-Det,G.B,N.O,Chi
   StL 04-7 2-2 3-5 Lari Wden Ls.d vOak @Was vAri vNYG @Sea W-Sea,S.F,T.B

~Teams below this line are eliminated from Wild Cards but can win a division~

   Car 03*7 1-2 3-5 Lphi Latl .bye @Min @N.O vT.B vCle @Atl 
   T.B 02-9 0-4 1-7 Latl Wwas Lchi vCin @Det @Car vG.B vN.O W-Was L-StL,Atl

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk12)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 08-3 2-0 5-2 4-3 Wcar Lg.b Wten @Dal vSea vDal @Was @NYG Dal-?? NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 08-3 2-1 5-2 4-3 Wjax .bye Wnyg vPhi @Chi @Phi vInd @Was NYG-WW Phi-?? Was-L?

Common Opponents: NFC West, AFC South

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk12)
Philadelphia Eagles: Philly is well-positioned to win the NFCE, so long as they split or sweep the Dallas matches. See axeil's excellent breakdown here.

Dallas Cowboys: See Philly's breakdown. To surpass the Eagles the Cowboys either need to sweep the H2H series, or win more than Phi in the other two div matches, or win more than Phi in the out-of-division games.

New York Giants: Eliminated in Week 12. 0-0 since then.

Washington Footballers: Eliminated in Week 12. 0-0 since then.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
G.B 08-3 4-1 3-1 6-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin vN.E vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet Chi-WW Det-L? Min-WW
Det 07-4 2-0 4-3 5-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e vChi vT.B vMin @Chi @G.B Chi-?? G.B-W? Min-W?
Chi 05-6 1-2 3-4 4-3 Lg.b Wmin Wt.b @Det vDal vN.O vDet @Min Det-?? G.B-LL Min-W?
Min 04-7 0-4 2-3 4-5 .bye Lchi Lg.b vCar vNYJ @Det @Mia vChi Chi-L? Det-L? G.B-L?

Common Opponents: NFC South, AFC East
Green Bay: Two divisional and three C.O games remain and it is highly possible the NFCN will be decided by tie-breakers. Green Bay is in great position so far, a win vN.E will put them in excellent shape.

Detroit: The Lions, due to their win vs G.B earlier in the season, could head into Week 17 one game behind and still be win-and-in. So wins vChi, vT.B, vMin, and @Chi would leave them in control of their destiny. Losing a game would mean they'll need some help from Packers' opponents.

Chicago: Chicago has to win out and get lots of help.

Minnesota: Essentially finished, they would need to win out and get tons of help.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Atl 04-7 4-0 0-6 4-4 Wt.b Wcar Lcle vAri @G.B vPit @N.O vCar Car-W? N.O-W? T.B-W?
N.O 04-7 2-1 2-4 4-4 Ls.f Lcin Lbal @Pit vCar @Chi vAtl @T.B Atl-L? Car-W? T.B-W?
Car 03*7 1-2 2*3 3-5 Lphi Latl .bye @Min @N.O vT.B vCle @Atl Atl-L? N.O-L? T.B W?
T.B 02-9 0-4 1-4 1-7 Latl Wwas Lchi vCin @Det @Car vG.B vN.O Atl-L? Car-L? N.O-L?

Common Opponents: NFC North, AFC North
Atlanta: They could conceivably finish 6-0 in the division and 0-10 outside of it. Root for history! Seriously though, if they beat N.O again they'd have the tie-breaker, so seven wins might be enough. Hell, six wins miiiiiiight be enough.

New Orleans: After a disastrous homestand they are still in control of their NFCS destiny. A win vAtl in Wk16 would give them the tie-breaker assuming they match the Falcons overall divisional record.

Carolina: One win in the last nine games, a malfunctioning offense, and an employed Shula. And yet they're still only a half-game behind, and 4 sub-.500 opponents (and an inconsistent Cleveland squad) remain.

Tampa Bay: Despite being only two games out, their terrible divisional record and the remaining Atl@N.O match makes their hopes quite slim.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ari 09-2 2-1 7-1 7-1 Wstl Wdet Lsea @Atl vK.C @StL vSea @S.F S.F-W? Sea-L? StL-W?
S.F 07-4 1-2 5-1 5-3 Wn.o Wnyg Wwas vSea @Oak @Sea vS.D vAri Ari-L? Sea-?? StL-WL
Sea 07-4 1-1 4-3 5-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari @S.F @Phi vS.F @Ari vStL Ari-W? S.F-?? StL-L?
StL 04-7 2-2 1-4 3-5 Lari Wden Ls.d vOak @Was vAri vNYG @Sea Ari-L? S.F-WL Sea-W?

Common Opponents: NFC East, AFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Remain in fantastic position for the NFCW title, a bye, and the #1 Seed, but their offense is fizzling and the schedule is very tough. They are S.F fans this Thursday since they have a win over the Niners already.

San Francisco 49ers: Another win over a team they were expected to beat, although it was much closer than it should have been. With 2 NFCW losses already on the boards, their push for the division title essentially requires them to win out in-division and hope Ari drops another game somewhere.

Seattle Seahawks: If they can win at Levi's then they'll be in decent shape for catching up to Arizona, although their schedule is quite tough: the Rams are the "easy" match-up.

St.Louis Rams: Must win out AND have Arizona lose out AND have Seattle and San Fran split their series AND have Seattle and San Fran lose all other matches.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Monday, November 24th, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 N.E 09-2 2-1 6-2 .bye Wind Wdet @G.B @S.D vMia @NYJ vBuf W-Den,Buf,Ind L-Mia
02 Den 08-3 3-0 6-1 Woak Lstl Wmia @K.C vBuf @S.D @Cin vOak W-Ind,K.C,S.D,Mia L-N.E
03 Cin 07*3 2-1 5-3 Lcle Wn.o Whou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit
04 Ind 07-4 4-0 6-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax vWas @Cle vHou @Dal @Ten W-Bal,Hou L-Den,Pit,N.E

05 K.C 07-4 1-2 5-3 Wbuf Wsea Loak vDen @Ari vOak @Pit vS.D W-N.E,Mia,S.D,Buf L-Den
06 Bal 07-4 2-3 3-4 Wten .bye Wn.o vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle W-Cle L-Ind,Cinx2 WL-Pit

   Pit 07-4 2-2 6-3 Lnyj Wten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin W-Ind,Hou WL-Bal,Cle
   S.D 07-4 2-2 5-3 .bye Woak Wstl @Bal vN.E vDen @S.F @K.C W-Buf L-Den,Mia,K.C
   Cle 07-4 2-2 4-4 Wcin Lhou Watl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal L-Bal WL-Pit

   Mia 06-5 2-1 5-3 Ldet Wbuf Lden @NYJ vBal @N.E vMin vNYJ W-N.E,S.D L-K.C WL-Buf L-Den
   Buf 06-5 3-2 3-5 Lk.c Lmia Wnyj vCle @Den vG.B @Oak @N.E L-N.E,S.D,Hou,K.C WL-Mia
   Hou 05-6 1-1 4-3 .bye Wcle Lcin vTen @Jax @Ind vBal vJax W-Buf,Ten L-Ind,Pit   

Eliminated: Oakland & Jacksonville (Wk11), Tennessee, New York (Wk12)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
N.E 09-2 2-1 5-1 6-2 .bye Wind Wdet @G.B @S.D vMia @NYJ	vBuf Buf-W? Mia-L? NYJ-W?
Mia 06-5 2-1 3-4 5-3 Ldet Wbuf Lden @NYJ vBal @N.E vMin	vNYJ Buf-LW N.E-W? NYJ-??
Buf 06-5 3-2 3-2 3-5 Lk.c Lmia Wnyj vCle @Den vG.B @Oak	@N.E Mia-WL N.E-L? NYJ-W?

Common Opponents: AFC West, NFC North

Eliminated: New York (Wk12)
New England Patriots: Effectively 1.5 games ahead for the #1 Seed due to tie-breakers. Plenty of ways to clinch the AFCE by the end of Week 14. Schedule is quite tough for the next three weeks though, so Denver/AFCN leader/Indy/Miami could make things interesting.

Miami Dolphins: The very tough losses to the Lions and Broncos mean that Miami is very unlikely to win the division and are in need of quite a lot of help in the Wild Card race. Since there are a lot of AFCN matches left, and S.D and K.C also have a few match-ups vs the AFCN, a lot of wins will get handed out among those 6 contenders. Miami will likely need to go 4-1 (assuming a loss @N.E) and get some help to end up in an ideal tie-breaker scenario at 10-6.

Buffalo Bills: Essentially must win out and get lots of help. Very bad AFC record and losses to Wild Card competitors make that path very tough as well, 10-6 will likely not be enough.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Cin 07*3 2-1 5*1 5-3 Lcle Wn.o Whou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-??
Bal 07-4 2-3 5-1 3-4 Wten .bye Wn.o vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL
Pit 07-4 2-2 5-1 6-3 Lnyj Wten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL
Cle 07-4 2-2 4-2 4-4 Wcin Lhou Watl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL

Common Opponents: AFC South, NFC South
Cincinnati Bengals: Their final four games are against winning teams, so they can't afford to overlook the Bucs next week. If they can win vPit, @Cle, and one other match, then they'll be at 10-5-1 and Pit and Cle will be at 5+ losses, which is a pretty good base for winning the division.

Baltimore Ravens: Currently holding a Wild Card spot and they arguably have the easiest remaining schedule of all AFCN teams. That being said, their next two matches are vs Wild Card competitors so their status could change in a hurry.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Very tough schedule to finish the season, but they have an excellent tie-breaker setup right now, only falling behind Baltimore when it's a 3-way tie with Cleveland. They need to win vN.O to match the Bengals and Ravens.

Cleveland Browns: Winning ugly but it could get them to the post-season. Their @Bal match matters more than their vCin match since they can't finish tied with the Bengals (barring more ties). For similar reasons they'll root for the Bengals to sweep the Steelers, since that would wreck Pittsburgh's divisional record and help the Browns in tie-breakers.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ind 07-4 4-0 3-2 6-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax vWas @Cle vHou @Dal @Ten Hou-W? Jax-WW Ten-W?
Hou 05-6 1-1 2-5 4-3 .bye Wcle Lcin vTen @Jax @Ind vBal vJax Ind-L? Jax-?? Ten-W?

Common Opponents: AFC North, NFC East

Eliminated: Tennessee, Jacksonville (Wk12)
Indianapolis Colts: Can clinch as early as Wk13 with any 3 {Colts wins, Texans losses}.

Houston Texans: Well, if they can win two games vs weaker divisional opponents, and the Browns can eek out a win vs Indy, and Houston can pull off the upset in Indy, then Houston will be one game behind and in a bad but not terrible tie-breaker position. Anything short of that and it'll be time to scout the draft.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Den 08-3 3-0 4-3 6-1 Woak Lstl Wmia @K.C vBuf @S.D @Cin vOak K.C-W? Oak-W? S.D-W?
K.C 07-4 1-2 6-1 5-3 Wbuf Wsea Loak vDen @Ari vOak @Pit vS.D Den-L? Oak-?? S.D-W?
S.D 07-4 2-2 4-2 5-3 .bye Woak Wstl @Bal vN.E vDen @S.F @K.C Den-L? K.C-L? Oak-W?

Common Opponents: AFC East, NFC West

Eliminated: Oakland (Wk11)
Denver Broncos: Denver hasn't looked great for a while now, eeking out another close win vs the Dolphins. They do have a nice tie-breaker advantage with nary an AFCW loss though. That being said, Denver's road games @K.C and @S.D are suddenly incredibly significant, and losing both would likely put one of the Chiefs or Chargers in the lead.

Kansas City Chiefs: Losing to Oakland with 4 playoff contenders still on the schedule really hurts their AFCW title hopes. A wild card is iffy at this point when you compare the schedules of the AFCN teams to K.C. The match vDen is must-win for division title hopes to continue.

San Diego Chargers: S.D is in bad shape vs Denver in divisional tie-breakers and in bad shape vs K.C in C.O tie-breakers. They'll likely need to finish 4-1 or better and get help (or 3-2 and get tons of help), which is a tough path considering their schedule.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
Hey Goodell, use your crooked intentions to rig another out-of-conference Bengals tie versus the Bucs so the ESPN Playoff Machine can implode from the 4-way tie AFCN and 12-way tie Wild Card possibilities.

Toss in a simple 7-way tie in the NFC for fun.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

ChewyLSB posted:

Okay, you have the Giants and Redskins being eliminated from playoff contention but either of them can sneak in at 8-8 I think. I at least figured out how to have the Giants sneak in at 8-8 by tying with the Eagles at 8-8 and having the rest of the current 7 win teams ending up at 7-9.

EDIT: I'm not particularly good at this and I'm sure I have tons of unnecessary games selected but



Ah good catch, for some reason I'd locked in San Fran and Seattle splitting their games from a different sim.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

axeil posted:

Thanks for the mention. Glad my late night ramblings can be put to good use. :unsmith:

No thanks needed, very happy to see other people doing some "in the margins" analysis! My Sunday and Monday evenings are booked solid with real life sports these days so I can't crank out as many scenarios as in the past, or at least not until there's 8 games or less which affect a given playoff spot.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

ROSS MY SALAD posted:

Lot of talk about a team about to get boat raced on Sunday

Did you happen to see the NFC South boat race.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

axeil posted:

Depends if the tie is in the division or out of it. If the tie is with someone in your division you resolve that first, otherwise it goes to conference record.

Assuming that third team is outside the division (so not San Fran), it also depends if that 3rd team played either of Dallas or Seattle.

If there's a three-way tie and one team won vs both the others they win the tie-breaker. If one team lost vs both the others they are eliminated and it's down to a two-way tie-breaker. If it was a win vs one and loss vs the other you to the next tie-breakers.

Most likely non-NFCE/non-NFCW candidates to tie both Dallas and Seattle are Detroit and Green Bay. Detroit played Arizona and the Giants, soso that could not use H2H results. Green Bay played Seattle and Philadelphia, so in a Dallas-Green Bay-Seattle 3-way tie the H2H analysis would be:

Green Bay: Lost to Seattle
Dallas: Won vs Seattle
Seattle: Lost to Dallas, Won vs Green Bay

Nothing is resolved, move to next tie-breaker.

So, end result is Dallas' win over Seattle is meaningless in any three-way tie (aside from the impact on common opponent and conference records).

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 09-3 3-0 5-2 5-3 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal vSea vDal @Was @NYG Dal-W? NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 08-4 2-2 5-2 5-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi @Chi @Phi vInd @Was NYG-WW Phi-L? Was-L?

Common Opponents: NFC West, AFC South

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk12)
Main Scenario 1 - Philadelphia wins vs Dallas in Week 15

Philadelphia clinches if they win one more game OR Dallas loses one more game.

Dallas clinches if they win @Chi & vInd & @Was and Philly loses vSea @ @Was & @NYG.

Main Scenario 2 - Dallas wins vs Philadelphia in Week 15

pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 09-4 3-1 5-2 5-4 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal vSea Ldal @Was @NYG Dal-WL NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 09-4 3-2 5-2 6-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi @Chi Wphi vInd @Was NYG-WW Phi-LW Was-L?
Philadelphia clinches with:

1) Phi wins (vSea AND @Was AND @NYG) [clinch via NFCE record, 5-1 vs 4-2 at best];
2) Phi wins (@Was AND @NYG) AND any Dal loss [clinch via NFCE record, 5-1 vs 4-2 at best];
3) Phi wins (vSea AND either (@Was OR @NYG)) AND Dal loss either (v@Was) [clinch via NFCE record, 4-2 vs 3-3];
4) Phi wins (vSea AND either (@Was OR @NYG)) AND Dal loss either (vInd) [clinch via C.O record, 6-2 vs 5-3];
5) Phi wins (vSea AND either (@Was OR @NYG)) AND Dal loss @Chi AND Phi wins SoV tie-breaker;
6) Phi win either (@Was OR @NYG) AND Dal losses (@Was AND either (@Chi OR vInd)) [clinch via NFCE record, 4-2 vs 3-3];
7) Phi win vSea AND Dal losses (@Was AND either (@Chi OR vInd) [clinch via C.O record, 6-2 vs 5-3].

Dallas can win far fewer tie-breakers; when they do it's because of a loss @Chi wouldn't hurt their Div or C.O record, whereas any Philly loss hurts one or the other.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Sunday, November 30th, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 Ari 09-3 2-1 7-2 Wstl Wdet Lsea Latl vK.C @StL vSea @S.F W-Phi,Dal,Det,S.F L-Sea
02 G.B 09-3 4-1 6-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin Wn.e vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet W-Min,Chi,Phi L-Det,Sea,N.O
03 Phi 09-3 3-0 5-3 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal vSea vDal @Was @NYG W-Dal L-Ari,S.F,G.B
04 Atl 05-7 4-0 5-4 Wt.b Wcar Lcle Wari @G.B vPit @N.O vCar W-N.O L-Min,NYG,Chi,Det

05 Sea 08-4 1-1 6-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari @S.F @Phi vS.F @Ari vStL W-G.B,S.F L-Dal,StL
06 Det 08-4 2-0 6-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e vChi vT.B vMin @Chi @G.B W-G.B,N.O L-Ari

   Dal 08-4 2-2 5-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi @Chi @Phi vInd @Was W-Sea,N.O L-Ari,S.F,Phi
   S.F 07-5 1-3 6-4 Wn.o Wnyg Wwas Lsea @Oak @Sea vS.D vAri W-Dal,Phi L-Ari,Chi,Sea,StL

   N.O 05-7 2-1 4-4 Ls.f Lcin Lbal Wpit vCar @Chi vAtl @T.B W-G.B L-Dal,Det,S.F
   Chi 05-7 1-3 4-4 Lg.b Wmin Wt.b Ldet vDal vN.O vDet @Min W-S.F,Atl,Min L-G.B,Det
   Min 05-7 0-4 5-5 .bye Lchi Lg.b Wcar vNYJ @Det @Mia vChi W-StL,Was,Atl L-Det,G.B,N.O,Chi
   StL 05-7 2-2 3-5 Lari Wden Ls.d Woak @Was vAri vNYG @Sea W-Sea,S.F,T.B

~Teams below this line are eliminated from Wild Cards but can win a division~

   Car 03*7 1-2 3-5 Lphi Latl .bye @Min @N.O vT.B vCle @Atl 
   T.B 02-9 0-4 1-7 Latl Wwas Lchi vCin @Det @Car vG.B vN.O W-Was L-StL,Atl

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk13)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 09-3 3-0 5-2 5-3 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal vSea vDal @Was @NYG Dal-W? NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 08-4 2-2 5-2 5-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi @Chi @Phi vInd @Was NYG-WW Phi-L? Was-L?

Common Opponents: NFC West, AFC South

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk12)
Main Scenario 1 - Philadelphia wins vs Dallas in Week 15

Philadelphia clinches if they win one more game OR Dallas loses one more game.

Dallas clinches if they win @Chi & vInd & @Was and Philly loses vSea @ @Was & @NYG.

Main Scenario 2 - Dallas wins vs Philadelphia in Week 15

pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 09-4 3-1 5-2 5-4 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal vSea Ldal @Was @NYG Dal-WL NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 09-4 3-2 5-2 6-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi @Chi Wphi vInd @Was NYG-WW Phi-LW Was-L?
Philadelphia clinches with:

1) Phi wins (vSea AND @Was AND @NYG) [clinch via NFCE record, 5-1 vs 4-2 at best];
2) Phi wins (@Was AND @NYG) AND any Dal loss [clinch via NFCE record, 5-1 vs 4-2 at best];
3) Phi wins (vSea AND either (@Was OR @NYG)) AND Dal loss either (v@Was) [clinch via NFCE record, 4-2 vs 3-3];
4) Phi wins (vSea AND either (@Was OR @NYG)) AND Dal loss either (vInd) [clinch via C.O record, 6-2 vs 5-3];
5) Phi wins (vSea AND either (@Was OR @NYG)) AND Dal loss @Chi AND Phi wins SoV tie-breaker;
6) Phi win either (@Was OR @NYG) AND Dal losses (@Was AND either (@Chi OR vInd)) [clinch via NFCE record, 4-2 vs 3-3];
7) Phi win vSea AND Dal losses (@Was AND either (@Chi OR vInd) [clinch via C.O record, 6-2 vs 5-3].

Dallas can win far fewer tie-breakers; when they do it's because of a loss @Chi wouldn't hurt their Div or C.O record, whereas any Philly loss hurts one or the other.

Philadelphia Eagles: Philly is well-positioned to win the NFCE, so long as they split or sweep the Dallas matches. See axeil's excellent breakdown here.

Dallas Cowboys: See Philly's breakdown. To surpass the Eagles the Cowboys either need to sweep the H2H series, or win more than Phi in the other two div matches, or win more than Phi in the out-of-division games.

New York Giants: Eliminated in Week 12.

Washington Footballers: Eliminated in Week 12.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
G.B 09-3 4-1 4-1 6-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin Wn.e vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet Chi-WW Det-L? Min-WW
Det 08-4 3-0 4-3 6-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e Wchi vT.B vMin @Chi @G.B Chi-W? G.B-W? Min-W?

Common Opponents: NFC South, AFC East

Eliminated: Chicago, Minnesota (Wk13)
Green Bay: With a huge win vs the Patriots the Packers could clinch the division before the Wk17 showdown vs the Lions. They would need to go 3-0 while Detroit goes 2-1 over the next three weeks, but the toughest game on the list is G.B@Buf so it'd require an upset by the Bears or Vikings.

Detroit: The Lions, due to their win vs G.B earlier in the season, could head into Week 17 one game behind and still be win-and-in. So wins vT.B, vMin, and @Chi would leave them in control of their destiny. Losing a game would mean they'll need some help from Packers' opponents.

Chicago Bears: Eliminated in Week 13.

Minnesota Vikings: Eliminated in Week 13.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Atl 05-7 4-0 0-6 5-4 Wt.b Wcar Lcle Wari @G.B vPit @N.O vCar Car-W? N.O-W? T.B-W?
N.O 05-7 2-1 3-4 4-4 Ls.f Lcin Lbal Wpit vCar @Chi vAtl @T.B Atl-L? Car-W? T.B-W?
Car 03*8 1-2 2*3 3-6 Lphi Latl .bye Lmin @N.O vT.B vCle @Atl Atl-L? N.O-L? T.B W?
T.B 02-T 0-4 1-5 1-7 Latl Wwas Lchi Lcin @Det @Car vG.B vN.O Atl-L? Car-L? N.O-L?

Common Opponents: NFC North, AFC North
Atlanta: Their lead is tenuous when you consider the next two weeks of opponents for them and the Saints. The game @N.O in Wk16 will be must-win, and that will guarantee them 6 wins and the H2H tie-breaker. A 7th win would be enough so long as the Panthers, Bears, or Bucs can also win vs the Saints.

New Orleans: After a disastrous homestand they are still in control of their NFCS destiny. A win vAtl in Wk16 would give them the tie-breaker assuming they match the Falcons overall divisional record.

Carolina: One win in the last ten games, a malfunctioning offense and special teams, and an employed Shula. With a 1.5 game deficit and the Atl@N.O game remaining, their only real hope is to win both @N.O and @Atl, and then either win out to 7.5 wins, or have Atl and N.O stumble enough for 6.5 wins to suffice.

Tampa Bay: Must win out AND have Atl@N.O end in a tie AND have Atl loses all other games AND have N.O lose all other games AND have Carolina lose vCle.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ari 09-3 2-1 7-1 7-2 Wstl Wdet Lsea Latl vK.C @StL vSea @S.F S.F-W? Sea-L? StL-W?
Sea 08-4 2-1 4-3 5-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari Ws.f @Phi vS.F @Ari vStL Ari-W? S.F-W? StL-L?
S.F 07-5 1-3 5-1 6-4 Wn.o Wnyg Wwas Lsea @Oak @Sea vS.D vAri Ari-L? Sea-L? StL-WL
StL 05-7 2-2 2-4 3-5 Lari Wden Ls.d Woak @Was vAri vNYG @Sea Ari-L? S.F-WL Sea-W?

Common Opponents: NFC East, AFC West
Arizona Cardinals: While still in control of their destiny, the Seahawks are also in control, thus Sea@Ari in Wk16 has a massive impact on the final results. Slightly in their favor is an easier closing schedule than Seattle and an excellent C.O record should that tie-breaker be necessary.

Seattle Seahawks: They're in control of their destiny but face three winning teams in a row, two on the road, before closing against a very tough Rams team. 10-6 can technically be sufficient, but would require a perfect set of results in terms of divisional wins and losses by them and the Cards.

San Francisco 49ers: With a terrible NFCW record and only 1 "easy" match left on the schedule the odds are low that the Niners can make a push for the division title.

St.Louis Rams: Must win out AND have Arizona lose out AND have Seattle and San Fran split their series AND have Seattle and San Fran lose all other matches.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Monday, December 1st, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 N.E 09-3 2-1 6-2 .bye Wind Wdet Lg.b @S.D vMia @NYJ vBuf W-Den,Buf,Ind L-Mia
02 Den 09-3 4-0 7-1 Woak Lstl Wmia Wk.c vBuf @S.D @Cin vOak W-Ind,K.C,S.D,Mia L-N.E
03 Cin 08*3 2-1 5-3 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b vPit @Cle vDen @Pit
04 Ind 08-4 4-0 6-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax Wwas @Cle vHou @Dal @Ten W-Bal,Hou L-Den,Pit,N.E

05 S.D 08-4 2-2 6-3 .bye Woak Wstl Wbal vN.E vDen @S.F @K.C W-Buf L-Den,Mia,K.C
06 Mia 07-5 3-1 6-3 Ldet Wbuf Lden @NYJ vBal @N.E vMin vNYJ W-N.E,S.D L-K.C WL-Buf L-Den

   K.C 07-5 1-3 5-4 Wbuf Wsea Loak Lden @Ari vOak @Pit vS.D W-N.E,Mia,S.D,Buf L-Den
   Buf 07-5 3-2 4-5 Lk.c Lmia Wnyj Wcle @Den vG.B @Oak @N.E L-N.E,S.D,Hou,K.C,Cle WL-Mia
   Bal 07-5 2-3 3-5 Wten .bye Wn.o Ls.d @Mia vJax @Hou vCle W-Cle L-Ind,Cinx2 WL-Pit
   Pit 07-5 2-2 6-3 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin W-Ind,Hou WL-Bal,Cle
   Cle 07-5 2-2 4-5 Wcin Lhou Watl Lbuf vInd vCin @Car @Bal L-Bal WL-Pit
   Hou 06-6 2-1 5-3 .bye Wcle Lcin Wten @Jax @Ind vBal vJax W-Buf,Ten L-Ind,Pit   

Eliminated: Oakland & Jacksonville (Wk11), Tennessee & New York (Wk12)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
N.E 09-3 2-1 5-2 6-2 .bye Wind Wdet Lg.b @S.D vMia @NYJ	vBuf Buf-W? Mia-L? NYJ-W?
Mia 07-5 3-1 3-4 6-3 Ldet Wbuf Lden Wnyj vBal @N.E vMin	vNYJ Buf-LW N.E-W? NYJ-W?
Buf 07-5 3-2 3-2 4-5 Lk.c Lmia Wnyj Wcle @Den vG.B @Oak	@N.E Mia-WL N.E-L? NYJ-W?

Common Opponents: AFC West, NFC North

Eliminated: New York (Wk12)
New England Patriots: They need to match Denver win for win to hold on to the #1 Seed, and the home game vs Miami has high importance due to the Pats losing to the Dolphins in September. In control of their destiny, but a loss @S.D could change everything.

Miami Dolphins: Miami snuck into the 6th Seed temporarily thanks to the comeback win over New York. Huge game vs Baltimore next week, where the loser will fall a game and tie-breaker behind. And if they can win that and the Chargers can hand the Patriots another road loss then Mia@N.E will be for the AFCE lead.

Buffalo Bills: If they can split @Den/vG.B and win @Oak, and N.E can lose @S.D and vMia, then Buffalo could be in position to win @N.E in Wk17 and clinch via tie-breakers. Their Wild Card hopes are roughly the same, since there are 8 teams with 6-8 wins and a lot of them play each other down the line, so 10-6 should be the minimum playoff record.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Cin 08*3 2-1 6*1 5-3 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b vPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-??
Bal 07-5 2-3 5-1 3-5 Wten .bye Wn.o Ls.d @Mia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL
Pit 07-5 2-2 5-2 6-3 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL
Cle 07-5 2-2 4-2 4-5 Wcin Lhou Watl Lbuf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL

Common Opponents: AFC South, NFC South
Cincinnati Bengals: If they can win vPit and @Cle then they'll be at 10-5-1 and Pit and Cle will be at 6+ losses, which is a pretty good base for winning the division. Balitmore has the easiest remaining schedule, but even they have two road games vs playoff hopefuls.

Baltimore Ravens: Last week they held the #6 Seed and were a half-game behind the Bengals. Now they have 5 AFC losses, 3 AFCN losses, have fallen to 9th Seed, and have to travel to Miami in a massively important game. Losing to the Dolphins would cripple their AFCN title hopes and severly hurt their Wild Card hopes.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The loss to the Saints was one they could ill-afford. A loss @Cin will all but eliminate them from the AFCN chase, and would dent the tie-breaker edge (AFC record) they have in the Wild Card race. They really need one of Baltimore or Cleveland to lose since they'd be ahead of either in a 2-way tie.

Cleveland Browns: The loss to the Bills was one they could ill-afford. They face two division leaders in two weeks, albeit at home, and must split at worst to stay alive in the Wild Card race, and must win vCin to have AFCN aspirations. Hard to say who they should root for in Pit@Cin, is it easier to beat out 5 teams for the #6 Seed or 3 teams for the AFCN title?



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ind 08-4 4-0 4-2 6-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax Wwas @Cle vHou @Dal @Ten Hou-W? Jax-WW Ten-W?
Hou 06-6 2-1 2-5 5-3 .bye Wcle Lcin Wten @Jax @Ind vBal vJax Ind-L? Jax-?? Ten-W?

Common Opponents: AFC North, NFC East

Eliminated: Tennessee, Jacksonville (Wk12)
Indianapolis Colts: Can clinch this week with a win @Cle and a Hou loss @Jax (worst case would tie at 9-7, split H2H, 4-2 divisional, Indy wins with 5-3 C.O vs 3-5).

Houston Texans: Well, if they can win @Jax, and the Browns can eek out a win vs Indy, and Houston can pull off the upset in Indy, then Houston will be tied and in a bad but not terrible tie-breaker position. A loss @Ind would prompt scouting for the draft.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Den 09-3 4-0 4-3 7-1 Woak Lstl Wmia Wk.c vBuf @S.D @Cin vOak K.C-WW Oak-W? S.D-W?
S.D 08-4 2-2 4-2 6-3 .bye Woak Wstl Wbal vN.E vDen @S.F @K.C Den-L? K.C-L? Oak-W?
K.C 07-5 1-3 6-1 5-4 Wbuf Wsea Loak Lden @Ari vOak @Pit vS.D Den-LL Oak-?? S.D-W?

Common Opponents: AFC East, NFC West

Eliminated: Oakland (Wk11)
Denver Broncos: A big win @K.C to all but knock the Chiefs out of the AFCW race, and Denver clinches if they win vBuf and @S.D. The Chargers remain a threat for the division if they can win at home though, and N.E, Cin, and Indy are all in contention for a bye.

San Diego Chargers: The game vDen is must-win for them to win the AFCW. For a Wild Card they need to get to 10+ wins a maintain a good AFC record (7+ wins). So wins @S.F and any other game gets them that far, and then they just need New England, Cincy, and Denver to beat their divisional rivals.

Kansas City Chiefs: Their AFCW hopes are essentially dead, and their Wild Card hopes are hurting. They do get to take on two playoff competitors in the last two weeks, and their other two games are very winnable.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
pre:
Realistic Clinching Scenarios by Week 15

New England, AFC East title:

1) Win at San Diego in Week 14
2) Buffalo loses at Denver in Week 14
3) Win versus Miami in Week 15 to clinch

OR

1) Lose at San Diego in Week 14
2) Buffalo loses at Denver in Week 14
3) Miami loses versus Baltimore in Week 14
4) Buffalo loses versus Green Bay in Week 15
5) Win versus Miami in Week 15 to clinch

Cincinnati, AFC North title:

1) Win versus Pittsburgh in Week 14
2) Baltimore loses at Miami in Week 14
3) Win at Cleveland in Week 15

Indianapolis, AFC South title:

1) Win at Cleveland in Week 14
2) Houston loses at Jacksonville in Week 14

OR

1) Win vs Houston in Week 15

Denver, AFC West title:

1) Win versus Buffalo in Week 14
2) Win at San Diego in Week 15

Philadelphia, NFC East title:

1) Win versus Seattle in Week 14
2) Win versus Dallas in Week 15

OR

1) Lose versus Seattle in Week 14
2) Dallas loses at Chicago in Week 14
3) Win versus Dallas in Week 15
The NFC North could be clinched by Green Bay, but Detroit losing to Tampa and Minnesota at home seems to fall below the "feasibility line".

The NFC South could be clinched by Atlanta, but would Atlanta winning at Green Bay and versus Pittsburgh seems to be unrealistic.

The NFC West could be clinched by Arizona, but their apparent collapse and Seattle's resurgence makes it seem quite improbable.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Mel Mudkiper posted:

Yes but the Super Bowl is in primetime

If we define primetime as when everyone is watching the same game then...

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Bulls Hit posted:

So, Dolphins are the 6 seed, but still don't control their own destiny currently is what I've heard?

Hmm, I'm not seeing that.

Winning out gets them to 11-5 with a 9-3 AFC record, and divisional tie-breakers vs N.E and Buf, and Wild Card tie-breaker vs S.D. They would lose a tie-breaker to Den or K.C though.

So if they win out and N.E loses once, Miami wins the division. Thus for them to miss the playoffs, they'd need to have the Pats win out.

Miami and New England winning out gives losses to Baltimore and San Diego, so neither of them can finish ahead of the Dolphins.

Pitt and Cincy play each other twice, so it's impossible for both to finish 11+ wins.

Similar divisional match-ups limit the max that the other contenders can hit.

So they could finish 6th (Denver and New England win their divisions, Miami and K.C at 11-5) but I can't see how they would finish 7th or worse.

Thus, unless I'm missing something quirky, Miami controls their playoff destiny.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Sunday, December 7th, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 N.E 10-3 2-1 7-2 .bye Wind Wdet Lg.b Ws.d vMia @NYJ vBuf W-Den,Ind
02 Den 10-3 4-0 8-1 Woak Lstl Wmia Wk.c Wbuf @S.D @Cin vOak W-Ind,S.D L-N.E
03 Ind 09-4 4-0 7-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax Wwas Wcle vHou @Dal @Ten W-Bal,Hou L-Den,Pit,N.E
04 Cin 08*4 2-2 5-4 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b Lpit @Cle vDen @Pit

05 Pit 08-5 3-2 7-3 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Wcin @Atl vK.C vCin W-Ind,Hou WL-Bal,Cle
06 S.D 08-5 2-2 6-4 .bye Woak Wstl Wbal Ln.e vDen @S.F @K.C W-Buf L-Den,Mia,K.C

   Bal 08-5 2-3 4-5 Wten .bye Wn.o Ls.d Wmia vJax @Hou vCle W-Cle L-Ind WL-Pit

   Hou 07-6 3-1 6-3 .bye Wcle Lcin Wten Wjax @Ind vBal vJax W-Buf,Ten L-Ind,Pit
   Mia 07-6 3-1 6-4 Ldet Wbuf Lden Wnyj Lbal @N.E vMin vNYJ W-S.D L-K.C WL-Buf
   K.C 07-6 1-3 5-4 Wbuf Wsea Loak Lden Lari vOak @Pit vS.D W-Mia,S.D,Buf
   Buf 07-6 3-2 4-6 Lk.c Lmia Wnyj Wcle Lden vG.B @Oak @N.E L-S.D,Hou,K.C,Cle WL-Mia
   Cle 07-6 2-2 4-6 Wcin Lhou Watl Lbuf Lind vCin @Car @Bal L-Bal WL-Pit
   
Eliminated: Oakland & Jacksonville (Wk11), Tennessee & New York (Wk12)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
N.E 10-3 2-1 6-2 7-2 .bye Wind Wdet Lg.b wS.D vMia @NYJ	vBuf Buf-W? Mia-L? NYJ-W?
Mia 07-6 3-1 3-4 6-4 Ldet Wbuf Lden Wnyj Lbal @N.E vMin	vNYJ Buf-LW N.E-W? NYJ-W?
Buf 07-6 3-2 3-3 4-6 Lk.c Lmia Wnyj Wcle lDen vG.B @Oak	@N.E Mia-WL N.E-L? NYJ-WW

Common Opponents: AFC West, NFC North

Eliminated: New York (Wk12)
New England Patriots: They need to match Denver win for win to hold on to the #1 Seed. Clinch the AFCE with any win OR {Buf loss AND Mia loss}. Clinch a bye with two wins.

Miami Dolphins: Must win out AND have N.E. lose out.

Buffalo Bills: Must win out AND have N.E. lose out AND have Mia lose once.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Cin 08*4 2-2 6*1 5-4 Lcle Wn.o Whou Wt.b LPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-??
Pit 08-5 3-2 5-2 7-3 Lnyj Wten .bye Ln.o Wcin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL
Bal 08-5 2-3 5-1 4-5 Wten .bye Wn.o Ls.d Wmia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL
Cle 07-5 2-2 4-2 4-5 Wcin Lhou Watl Lbuf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL

Common Opponents: AFC South, NFC South
Cincinnati Bengals: They still control destiny but they'll be underdogs or sliiight favorites in all of them. Baltimore and Pitt will be favorites or sliiight underogs in all of their remaining matches, so there is almost no margin for error.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh controls their own destiny in the AFCN thanks to their big road win. They've stumbled vs sub-.500 teams all season though, so their road trip to Atlanta is crucial. Cincy has a tough set of games coming up, so Pitt could lead the division if they can win they're favored to do so.

Baltimore Ravens: Huge rebound game vaults them into the #7 Seed, but the Cleveland loss drops the Ravens to 3rd in the AFCN due to tie-breakers. They have a favorable closing schedule, but need to pass both Cincy and Pitt and one of them will win in Week 17. 10-6 could get it done but they'd need a perfect set of results (win vCle and one other game, have the Cin@Pit winner lose their other two games, and some other stuff).

Cleveland Browns: The Browns are down to 12th in the AFC due to a bad conference record, and 1-1.5 games back of the rest of the AFCN. They have the slimmest of odds at the playoffs but almost all roads to the post-season require them to win out.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ind 09-4 4-0 5-2 7-3 .bye Ln.e Wjax Wwas Wcle vHou @Dal @Ten Hou-W? Jax-WW Ten-W?
Hou 07-6 3-1 2-5 6-3 .bye Wcle Lcin Wten Wjax @Ind vBal vJax Ind-L? Jax-?? Ten-WW

Common Opponents: AFC North, NFC East

Eliminated: Tennessee, Jacksonville (Wk12)
Indianapolis Colts: Can clinch this week with a win vHou.

Houston Texans: The Browns let them down big-time, so Houston now needs to win out AND have Indy lose @Ten.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Den 10-3 4-0 5-3 8-1 Woak Lstl Wmia Wk.c Wbuf @S.D @Cin vOak K.C-WW Oak-W? S.D-W?
S.D 08-5 2-2 4-3 6-4 .bye Woak Wstl Wbal Ln.e vDen @S.F @K.C Den-L? K.C-L? Oak-WW

Common Opponents: AFC East, NFC West

Eliminated: Oakland (Wk11), Kansas City (Wk14)
Denver Broncos: Can clinch with a win @S.D, and are still in great shape if they lose there. A loss would probably kill their hopes of a #1 Seed, and would open the door to Indy and the AFCN leader to pass them for a bye.

San Diego Chargers: The game vDen is must-win for them to win the AFCW. For a Wild Card they need to get to 10+ wins a maintain a good AFC record (7+ wins). So wins @S.F and any other game gets them that far, and then they just need New England, Cincy, and Denver to beat their divisional rivals.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Last Updated: Sunday, December 7th, 23h30

pre:
## Tm. Rec. Div NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Conference Results
-- --- ---- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
01 Ari 10-3 2-1 7-2 Wstl Wdet Lsea Latl Wk.c @StL vSea @S.F W-Phi,Dal,Det,S.F L-Sea
02 G.B 09-3 4-1 6-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin Wn.e vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet W-Phi L-Det,Sea
03 Phi 09-4 3-0 5-4 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal Lsea vDal @Was @NYG W-Dal L-Ari,S.F,G.B,Sea
04 Atl 05-7 4-0 5-4 Wt.b Wcar Lcle Wari @G.B vPit @N.O vCar W-N.O

05 Sea 09-4 2-1 7-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari Ws.f Wphi vS.F @Ari vStL W-Phi,G.B,S.F L-Dal,StL
06 Det 09-4 3-0 7-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e Wchi Wt.b vMin @Chi @G.B W-G.B L-Ari

   Dal 09-4 2-2 6-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi Wchi @Phi vInd @Was W-Sea L-Ari,S.F,Phi

   S.F 07-6 1-3 6-4 Wn.o Wnyg Wwas Lsea Loak @Sea vS.D vAri W-Dal,Phi L-Ari,Sea,StL
   StL 06-7 2-2 4-5 Lari Wden Ls.d Woak Wwas vAri vNYG @Sea W-Sea,S.F

~Teams below this line are eliminated from Wild Cards but can win a division~

   N.O 05-8 2-2 4-5 Ls.f Lcin Lbal Wpit Lcar @Chi vAtl @T.B
   Car 04*8 2-2 4-5 Lphi Latl .bye Lmin Wn.o vT.B vCle @Atl 

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk13), Tampa Bay, Chicago, Minnesota (Wk14)


pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 09-4 3-0 5-3 5-4 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal Lsea vDal @Was @NYG Dal-W? NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 09-4 2-2 5-2 6-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi Wchi @Phi vInd @Was NYG-WW Phi-L? Was-L?

Common Opponents: NFC West, AFC South

Eliminated: New York, Washington (Wk12)
Main Scenario 1 - Philadelphia wins vs Dallas in Week 15

Philadelphia clinches if they win one more game OR Dallas loses one more game.

Dallas clinches if they win vInd & @Was and Philly loses @Was & @NYG.

Main Scenario 2 - Dallas wins vs Philadelphia in Week 15

pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Phi 09-5 3-1 5-3 5-5 Wcar Lg.b Wten Wdal Lsea Ldal @Was @NYG Dal-WL NYG-W? Was-W?
Dal 10-4 3-2 5-2 7-4 Wjax .bye Wnyg Lphi Wchi Wphi vInd @Was NYG-WW Phi-LW Was-L?
Philadelphia clinches with:

1) Phi wins (@Was AND @NYG) AND any Dal loss [clinch via NFCE record, 5-1 vs 4-2 at best];
2) Phi win either (@Was OR @NYG) AND Dal loses (@Was AND vInd)) [clinch via NFCE record, 4-2 vs 3-3];

Dallas clinches with:

1) Dal wins vInd AND @Was;
2) Dal wins (vInd OR @Was) AND Phi loses (@Was OR @NYG);
3) Phi loses (@Was AND @NYG).

Philadelphia Eagles: See above.

Dallas Cowboys: See above.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
G.B 09-3 4-1 4-1 6-3 Wchi Wphi Wmin Wn.e vAtl @Buf @T.B vDet Chi-WW Det-L? Min-WW
Det 09-4 3-0 5-3 7-2 Wmia Lari Ln.e Wchi Wt.b vMin @Chi @G.B Chi-W? G.B-W? Min-W?

Common Opponents: NFC South, AFC East

Eliminated: Chicago, Minnesota (Wk13)
Green Bay: Pending MNF.

Detroit: Pending MNF.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Atl 05-7 4-0 0-6 5-4 Wt.b Wcar Lcle Wari @G.B vPit @N.O vCar Car-W? N.O-W? T.B-W?
N.O 05-8 2-2 3-4 4-5 Ls.f Lcin Lbal Wpit Lcar @Chi vAtl @T.B Atl-L? Car-WL T.B-W?
Car 04*8 2-2 2*3 4-6 Lphi Latl .bye Lmin Wn.o vT.B vCle @Atl Atl-L? N.O-L? T.B W?

Common Opponents: NFC North, AFC North
Atlanta: Pending MNF.

New Orleans: Pending MNF.

Carolina: If the Packers can win then they'll just be a half-game back, but one of Atl and N.O is guaranteed another win (barring a tie in their match). Carolina has an outside shot and will be rooting for the Falcons at the Saints.



pre:
Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
Ari 10-3 2-1 7-1 7-2 Wstl Wdet Lsea Latl Wk.c @StL vSea @S.F S.F-W? Sea-L? StL-W?
Sea 09-4 2-1 5-3 6-2 Wnyg Lk.c Wari Ws.f Wphi vS.F @Ari vStL Ari-W? S.F-W? StL-L?
S.F 07-6 1-3 5-1 6-4 Wn.o Wnyg Wwas Lsea @Oak @Sea vS.D vAri Ari-L? Sea-L? StL-WL

Common Opponents: NFC East, AFC West

Eliminated: St. Louis (Wk14)
Arizona Cardinals: Clinch with win vSea AND any other {Ari win OR Sea loss}.

Seattle Seahawks: They control their own destiny, but their match @Ari is all but must-win.

San Francisco 49ers: Must win out AND have Arizona lose out AND have Sea lose all but @Ari.

kalensc fucked around with this message at 07:05 on Dec 8, 2014

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
Current Draft Order (Top 10, through Week 14)
pre:
## Tm. W-L. .SoS  Wk15 Wk16 Wk17
-- --- ---- ----  ---- ---- ----
01 T.B 2-11 .488  @Car vG.B vN.O 
02 Ten 2-11 .490  vNYJ @Jax vInd
03 Jax 2-11 .522  @Bal vTen @Hou
04 NYJ 2-11 .549  @Ten vN.E @Mia
05 Oak 2-11 .590  @K.C vBuf @Den
06 Was 3-10 .500  @NYG vPhi vDal
07 NYG 4-09 .522  vWas @StL vPhi
08 Car 4*08 .502  vT.B vCle @Atl
09 N.O 5-08 .493  @Chi vAtl @T.B 
10 Chi 5-08 .520  vN.O vDet @Min
The draft tie-breakers are:

1) Least amount of wins;
2) Worst SoS;
3) Worst divisional record (if same division);
4) Worst common opponents record (if same division);
5) Worst conference record (if same conference);
6) Coin flip.

(Strength of Victory and other rarer tie-breakers may factor in, the rules are surprisingly ambiguous on the NFL site and every draft breakdown site I reviewed. I'll assume they don't since the above setup does work with past coin-flip scenarios.)

For the #1 Pick, if Tampa and Tennessee both lose out, then it will all come down to how well their 13 opponents from the 2014 season fare.

Note that since there are so many divisional games left, there isn't a ton of room for movement, i.e. Hou@Ind will give Tenn both 2 SoS wins and 2 SoS losses, and they're so close to .500 that it will be a negligible adjustment. Same for NFCS match-ups and Tampa.

Thus the greater impact will come from the inter-divisional games on everyone's schedules. For example, Tampa is pulling for Green Bay tonight so that they can earn two more SoS losses. Tennessee's SoS won't be affected either way but they should be Atlanta fans so that Tampa gets two more SoS wins.

Both teams have winnable games left on the schedule, so this analysis may be moot in the end, but if both lose out then their SoS' will be entirely decided by Week 16 (since Week 17 is all divisional matches and thus each result will simply add 2-2 to their SoS total).

Oakland was a big winner and loser this week, with the upset vs San Francisco in the Battle of the Bay dropping them from #1 to #5. They can only move up if some/all of Tampa, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and N.Y. Jets lose more games.

There is some great news on that front though: Tennessee plays the Jets and Jaguars the next two weeks. So long as Tennessee doesn't win both then 2 of the 3 teams will earn a 3rd win and Oakland will be picking no worse than 3rd (assuming they lose their two games). Best scenario is one of those Tenn games ends in a tie, and the Titans lose the other, moving Oakland into 2nd (or 1st if Tampa wins @Car or vG.B).

Don't count out Washington for a top-3 pick, they have a poor enough SoS to sneak past the Jags and Jets and Raiders if any/all of those three win some games.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
ESPN needs to setup a draft race simulator so we can dream our way to the best draft order.

Whoever wins Atl@N.O is going to cost themselves about 12 spots in the draft order. Arthur Blank might be rooting for more Mike Smith clock management gaffes to ensure a top 10 selection with his new staff.

kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby

Blitz7x posted:

Oakland shouldn't beat KC, Buffalo, or Denver so I'm pretty sure they get a top 3 pick.


Go Bucs

Buffalo at home seems quite winnable. Both wins were home games vs teams that have stingy defenses and subpar offenses and red in their uniforms.

Raiders 20, Bills 17.

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kalensc
Sep 10, 2003

Only Trust Your Respirator, kupo!
Art/Quote by: Rubby
More draft stuff, just the details, useful for figuring out the tie-breakers for the top picks.

pre:
Team	Div	Conf	Ovr W	Ovr L	Ovr %	Div W	Div L	C.O W	C.O L	Cnf W	Cnf L	SoS W	SoS L	SoS %
T.B	NFCS	NFC	2	11	0.154	0	4	1	6	1	8	99.5	108.5	0.478
TEN	AFCS	AFC	2	11	0.154	1	3	0	8	2	7	101.5	106.5	0.488
JAX	AFCS	AFC	2	11	0.154	0	4	2	5	1	8	107.5	100.5	0.517
NYJ	AFCE	AFC	2	11	0.154	0	4	1	7	2	7	115	93	0.553
OAK	AFCW	AFC	2	11	0.154	1	3	1	6	1	8	122	86	0.587
Was	NFCE	NFC	3	10	0.231	1	2	2	6	1	8	104	104	0.500
NYG	NFCE	NFC	4	9	0.308	1	3	2	5	2	7	108	100	0.519
CAR	NFCS	NFC	4.5	8.5	0.346	2	2	2.5	4.5	4	6	103.5	104.5	0.498
ATL	NFCS	NFC	5	8	0.385	4	0	0	7	5	5	98.5	109.5	0.474
N.O	NFCS	NFC	5	8	0.385	2	2	3	4	4	5	100.5	107.5	0.483
CHI	NFCN	NFC	5	8	0.385	1	3	3	4	4	5	108.5	99.5	0.522
If you've ever wondered why SoS seems to vary from source to source it's because a lot of places are either:

1) Counting divisional opponents once instead of twice; or
2) Only counting opponents played thus far rather than all 16 opponents.

kalensc fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Dec 10, 2014

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