NFL Playoffs Race - Thread now available in Cleveland

Desired AFC and NFC Championship Game participants? (Pick two per conference)
	Arizona (NFC)
	Baltimore (AFC)
	Buffalo (AFC)
	Carolina (NFC)
	Cincinnati (AFC)
	Cleveland (AFC)
	Dallas (NFC)
	Denver (AFC)
	Detroit (NFC)
	Green Bay (NFC)
	Houston (AFC)
	Indianapolis (AFC)
	Kansas City (AFC)
	Miami (AFC)
	Minnesota (NFC)
	New England (AFC)
	New Orleans (NFC)
	Philadelphia (NFC)
	Pittsburgh (AFC)
	San Diego (AFC)
	San Francisco (NFC)
	Seattle (NFC)

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Blotto Skorzany posted:

Small errors in the NFCN chart bolded. Thanks for doing all this work!

Also the Packers have swept the Bears, not the Vikings.

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 17:33

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 12:15

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

kalensc posted:

And here's the rankings by Strength of Victory (SoV; the total number of wins of the opponents they have defeated). The SoV alone is only really useful when comparing teams with an identical number of wins. I've added the W-L record as well; relatively small Ovr W numbers at the top (S.F) means they're tending to defeat quite strong teams, whereas relatively large Ovr W numbers at the bottom (Atl) means they're tending to only win vs the minnows of the league.

Thanks for this, it puts numbers to a discussion I was actually having earlier today. It feels like the Packers are a REALLY weak 6-3 (1-3 against teams over .500) and only look as good as they do because they've put up 4 blowouts against lovely teams (MIN, CAR, CHIx2). The second weakest SoV amongst 6-win teams makes that a lot more convincing.

The only thing that makes me optimistic about this is the fact that all four of the decent-to-good teams the Packers have played thus far were on the road (L@SEA, L@DET, W@MIA, L@NO).

The Eagles are coming to town next, and I think that might be a very good measuring stick for what to expect, especially since the Patriots will be coming soon after.

# ¿ Nov 12, 2014 02:38

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Man, the AFC North is crazy. I can't remember the last time I saw all 4 teams in a division so close this late in a season.

e: Speaking of which, I know this is splitting hairs but I'm curious about the tiebreak procedure here:

kalensc posted:

pre:

Tm. Rec. Div C.O AFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------

Cin 06*3 2-1 4*1 4-3 Lcle Wn.o @Hou @T.B vPit @Cle vDen @Pit Bal-WW Cle-L? Pit-??
Bal 06-4 2-3 4-1 3-4 Wten .bye @N.O vS.D @Mia vJax @Hou vCle Cin-LL Cle-W? Pit-WL
Pit 06-4 2-2 4-2 5-3 Lnyj @Ten .bye vN.O @Cin @Atl vK.C vCin Bal-WL Cin-?? Cle-WL
Cle 06-4 2-2 3-2 4-4 Wcin Lhou @Atl @Buf vInd vCin @Car @Bal Bal-L? Cin-W? Pit-WL

Common Opponents: AFC South, NFC South

Since the Ravens and Steelers split against each other, shouldn't the Steelers be ahead of the Ravens on tiebreaks due to the better division record?

Fenrir fucked around with this message at 13:34 on Nov 17, 2014

# ¿ Nov 17, 2014 12:52

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

kalensc posted:

Since Cleveland is also 6-4, the 3-way tie-breaker is applied.

In Bal-Cle, Cle-Pit, Bal-Pit games (i.e. toss out Cincy results) the three teams are:

Bal: 2-1
Pit: 2-2
Cle: 1-2

Cleveland really needs to beat Baltimore latee this year if the three teams stay this close.

Oh poo poo, that's right. I forgot there's a different tiebreak for three teams in the same division. Thanks, that had me confused there.

# ¿ Nov 17, 2014 19:58

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

OBR posted:

ESPN's is up as well. http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

I'm trying to see how bad a shitshow I can turn the NFC South into. Carolina's tie makes it easy to work with, since you can evade tiebreakers altogether by tanking the Falcons and Saints:

And y'all thought it was bad when a 7-win team went to the playoffs :getin:

I can't figure out a way to keep it at 5 wins though. It's gonna have to be 6-9-1 to work. Maybe I could tank the Panthers and get a 6-10 in.

e: Got it. I thought having the Bucs beat the Panthers in week 15 would gently caress it up but nope:

Fenrir fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Nov 19, 2014

# ¿ Nov 19, 2014 16:15

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

The best part about that is you can also change the Saints to 5-11 by giving them a win over the Steelers in week 13, thus creating a way to send everyone in the AFC North *except* the Steelers to the playoffs, and give the Browns a first round bye :allears:

Hear me, football gods, HEAR ME!

Fenrir fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Nov 19, 2014

# ¿ Nov 19, 2014 16:38

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Here it is guys, my masterpiece. Behold!

No Steelers, Broncos or Patriots. Browns bitch. And the NFC South still puts out a 5-win team.

Get the gently caress in :getin:

e: it seems to have eaten a game in there somewhere, but I don't think anything would change, I didn't need tiebreakers at all, really.

# ¿ Nov 19, 2014 16:56

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Right now with so many teams at 6-4 (or somewhere around that) it's almost impossible to gauge the AFC. There are literally hundreds of possibilities just because there are so many contenders and only six spots.

I mean, it may take a miracle to keep the Patriots out, but the Texans are only one game back of the Colts, the AFC West is only one game apart between three teams, and the AFC North is a complete goddamn clusterfuck.

# ¿ Nov 22, 2014 03:32

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Eifert Posting posted:

If the 7th seeded team from one conference runs the table against the 3 seed, the 1 seed and the 2/4/5 seed then maybe the other conference shouldn't be lovely.

I just don't want more total seeds.

If we're going nuts how about having the #5 seed claim the home field advantage if they have a two game lead on the division winner #4 seed. So if, let's say, the Lions finish the season as the #5 seed with a 9-7 record and the Falcons are the #4 seed with a 7-9 the Lions get to host.

You know what, gently caress that. I know it sounds dumb but I still want winning the division to mean something. I don't care how you get in. Yeah, we made a lot of fun of the 7-9 seahawks and the 8-7-1 Packers but that's a part of the game. If you want a playoff spot, win your division.

poo poo, I even joked last year about how the 10-6 Cardinals deserved a playoff spot more than the Packers did, but I really don't want a division title to lose meaning. Even if the miracle scenario happens and the 5-10-1 Panthers win the NFC South, I want them to have a home game in the playoffs.

# ¿ Nov 22, 2014 04:55

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

INSPECTAH DECK posted:

Winning a division title has already lost some meaning when they went to 8 divisions of 4 teams each. Stuff like this year's NFC South or the NFC West of a few years ago are bound to pop up now and then because of this format. Saying "that's a part of the game" seems devoid of meaning, and since winning your division is a goal with a wide range of difficulty due to the differences in the divisions over the years. I'd be hard pressed to say a 5 win Panthers accomplished much of anything besides failing upward. I'm guessing you'd be pissed if the 2010 Packers missed the playoffs, despite the fact they didn't win their division and only made the playoffs on tiebreakers. I also wouldn't joke about how the 10-6 Cardinals deserved a playoff spot more than the Packers did, as that is a true statement.

You're actually making my point for me there. Every division goes through ups and downs (this year's NFC South, last year's NFC North, 2011's NFC East, etc etc) but the whole point is that I still want every division winner to have a home playoff game. Maybe it isn't always the accomplishment it used to be (this year's AFC North would disagree!), but having the home playoff game GIVES it meaning.

I'm not sure what the 2010 Packers have to do with that, they were a wild card team. Rodgers got knocked out of two games and welp, thankfully they got the wild card. Still, that's irrelevant to what I posted. As for the 2013 Cardinals, yeah, I wish they'd have gotten a wild card too. They probably would have won almost any other division but the one they're in happened to be really tough. Not so much this year apparently, since they look right now to be the best team in the NFL.

# ¿ Nov 22, 2014 10:05

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Sour Diesel posted:

That would dull some division rivalries, because even when a division is lovely they hatefuck each other until someone goes to the playoffs.

Then you laugh at the lovely division winner of your lovely division as they go one and done and get embarrassed because andy dalt

# ¿ Nov 22, 2014 15:16

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Febreeze posted:

The system is loving fine. The 7-9 Seahawks beating the Saints completely justified it for eternity

# ¿ Nov 22, 2014 16:35

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Febreeze posted:

That's what happened to the Eagles in...2009? 10? They played the Cowboys, lost, then had to play the Cowboys again the next week, and lost again as Romo got his one and only playoff win

That owned

It happened to the Packers twice just recently. In 2009 the Pack beat the Cardinals 33-7 in Arizona then lost to them there a week later because Rodgers dropped a ball while being dragged down by his facemask. No, I'm not bitter... why do you ask :smith:

In 2012, the Vikings beat the Packers in week 17, 37-34. Their reward was a wild card date in Green Bay, where Rodgers won his first ever home playoff game, 24-10.

Cowboys-Eagles and Bengals-Jets may be the only instances of this scenario I've seen where the same team won both games, though. At least, I can't remember any others right off the top of my head.

I remember the joke of the 2009 WC round being "didn't we just see this game last week?"

It was a very strange situation - 3 of the 4 games were rematches of the previous week.

Fenrir fucked around with this message at 06:06 on Nov 26, 2014

# ¿ Nov 26, 2014 05:58

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Yeah, the 2011 Ravens were a better team, but the 2012 Ravens just had a hell of a postseason. Flacco went all Joe loving Flacco (seriously, the dude was on FIRE) and welp.

# ¿ Nov 26, 2014 20:17

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

KIM JONG TRILL posted:

I need this to happen

No one in the entire world wants that horrible thing to happen :frogout:

# ¿ Dec 1, 2014 02:59

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Qwijib0 posted:

I for one welcome our overlords that deem the 10-win cardinals bye-worthy.

That was the only GOOD part of that abomination.

# ¿ Dec 1, 2014 04:43

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

What's funny to me is, winning the NFC South seems like a BAD thing at this point. Just getting that playoff spot means dropping about 10 places in the draft with how lovely their records are.

# ¿ Dec 10, 2014 03:38

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Silly Burrito posted:

Eh, knowing the Saints, they'd probably screw up pick #9 or so. Might as well say we're NFC South champions, get the cheap T-shirt and pick at #21. Saves money.

Whether we could actually beat the Bears, Falcons, and Bucs to get there is an entirely different story.

If you can't beat the Bears, you've fallen pretty drat far since Week 8. Imagine the Packers but with a worse defense and you won't have to hurt their QB to keep them from scoring.

# ¿ Dec 10, 2014 03:47

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

I triple checked it and the only thing I can think of is that the simulator is jumping past conference record and settling on strength of victory, which the Packers edge out since beating the Patriots and Panthers is worth more than beating the Bucs and Saints.

e: Also, SoV factors in non-common wins, and Packers beating the Eagles is more valuable than the Lions beating the Giants. Both lost against the NFC West so those aren't relevant unless the tiebreak went to SoS, which it wouldn't, Packers SoV is too strong.

Yeah, the more I look at it I think it's jumping to SoV for some reason. Your analysis is correct - in the case you're demonstrating, the Lions win the North by a game on conference record.

Fenrir fucked around with this message at 23:42 on Dec 12, 2014

# ¿ Dec 12, 2014 23:33

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

AFC

#1 New England
#2 Cincinnati
#3 Denver
#4 Indy
#5 The Stupid loving Steelers locked up this seed even if they lose Week 17 :sigh:

#6 San Diego

AFC Div1: #6 San Diego @ #1 New England
AFC Div2: #4 Indy @ #2 Cincy

AFC CG: #6 San Diego @ #4 Indianapolis

NFC

#1 PACKERS
#2 Arizona
#3 Dallas
#4 Carolina
#5 Seattle
#6 Detroit

NFC Div1: #6 Detroit @ #1 Green Bay
NFC Div2: #4 Carolina @ #2 Arizona

NFC CG: #2 Arizona @ #1 Green bay

Super Bowl
GO PACK GO

This will not happen.

# ¿ Dec 24, 2014 05:13

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Chichevache posted:

You won't have your precious sun to help you this time.

In Arizona? Yeah, they will.

# ¿ Dec 26, 2014 02:32

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 12:15

Fenrir: Apr 26, 2005; I found my kendo stick, bitch!; Lipstick Apathy

Chichevache posted:

February at an indoor stadium?

Better than New York :colbert:

# ¿ Dec 27, 2014 02:00