NFL Playoffs Race - Thread now available in Cleveland

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Desired AFC and NFC Championship Game participants? (Pick two per conference)
	Arizona (NFC)
	Baltimore (AFC)
	Buffalo (AFC)
	Carolina (NFC)
	Cincinnati (AFC)
	Cleveland (AFC)
	Dallas (NFC)
	Denver (AFC)
	Detroit (NFC)
	Green Bay (NFC)
	Houston (AFC)
	Indianapolis (AFC)
	Kansas City (AFC)
	Miami (AFC)
	Minnesota (NFC)
	New England (AFC)
	New Orleans (NFC)
	Philadelphia (NFC)
	Pittsburgh (AFC)
	San Diego (AFC)
	San Francisco (NFC)
	Seattle (NFC)

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

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axeil: Feb 14, 2006

The best thread is back :allears:

I'm really excited for the Cards/Lions game this week and I'm really annoyed it's on at the same time as Philly/GB

axeil fucked around with this message at 14:24 on Nov 10, 2014

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 14:13

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 11:57

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Alfred P. Pseudonym posted:

Let me tell you about games to decide the division in Week 17. They are not fun.

Worked out in Dallas's favor back in 2009 :shobon:

# ¿ Nov 10, 2014 19:39

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Fenrir posted:

Thanks for this, it puts numbers to a discussion I was actually having earlier today. It feels like the Packers are a REALLY weak 6-3 (1-3 against teams over .500) and only look as good as they do because they've put up 4 blowouts against lovely teams (MIN, CAR, CHIx2). The second weakest SoV amongst 6-win teams makes that a lot more convincing.

The only thing that makes me optimistic about this is the fact that all four of the decent-to-good teams the Packers have played thus far were on the road (L@SEA, L@DET, W@MIA, L@NO).

The Eagles are coming to town next, and I think that might be a very good measuring stick for what to expect, especially since the Patriots will be coming soon after.

It'll be a good measuring stick for both teams. The Eagles are also 1-2 against teams with winning records (beat Colts, lost to Niners and Cardinals) and while they have a great point differential I'm excited/nervous to see how they do against someone they really ought to be beating if they have a chance at a Super Bowl.

The Packers are in the same bus. If they beat the Eagles not only do they improve their record but they're also proving that they're a better team than people thought.

# ¿ Nov 12, 2014 05:05

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

I made something beautiful.

Only the Rams, Chiefs and Dolphins have won a Super Bowl.

# ¿ Nov 19, 2014 17:46

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Brannock posted:

I was able to successfully create a scenario where: If the Lions beat the Packers they secure the #1 seed. If they lose to the Packers, they're out of the playoffs.

What's it look like?

# ¿ Nov 19, 2014 23:00

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Febreeze posted:

The system is loving fine. The 7-9 Seahawks beating the Saints completely justified it for eternity

I can't wait for it to be validated again when the NFC South team beats the Seahawks.

# ¿ Nov 22, 2014 17:12

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Cowboys just may have saved their season. I was doing some back of the envelope math during the game and figured out that if the Cowboys had lost this game and the game against the Eagles they would've:

-Been 2 games behind the Eagles
-Had no possible H2H tiebreaker
-Had no possible division wins tiebreaker (as the loss would give Dallas their third division loss and Philly their third division win)
-Slim chance of gaining the common opponents tiebreaker as they would be 7-4 with 2 to play (Indy and @Was) and Philly at 7-3 with 3 to play (Seattle, @Was, @NYG). Dallas would have to run the table while Philly lost 2 out of 3 or win 1 while Philly lost all 3. And Philly would have to lose both divisional games for this tiebreaker to matter anyway.

With such poor tiebreakers they'd need to gain 3 games on the Eagles in 4 weeks to have a realistic shot at winning the division. Not impossible, but very, very unlikely especially with how tough their schedule is.

Basically a loss this week and next week would've given the division to the Eagles barring a 2013 Lions-esque collapse.

However, since they won this week:

A win against the Eagles and they are a game up with the H2H tiebreaker and a chance to take the divisional tiebreaker if Philly drops another divisional game. Dallas can ensure this by beating Philly two weeks later.

A loss against the Eagles and they are a game back with no H2H tiebreaker but with a chance to still take the divisional tiebreaker if they beat Philly again two weeks later and get some help.

Either way the division itself won't be decided on Thanksgiving this week; the game will only give the winner advantage going into the 2nd game. Since I'm pretty sure Philly and Dallas are going to split it all comes down to the divisional games. So long as Philly wins at least one of their other divisional games Dallas can't take the divisional tie breaker (assuming a series split with Dallas).

If you're an Eagles fan and you think they're gonna split: a combo of any two (Philly wins @Was, Philly wins @NYG, Dallas loses @Was) would give Philly control of the tiebreakers. Getting only one of those moves it to common games record (currently Dallas 8-3, Philly 7-3).

If you're a Cowboys fan and you think they're gonna split: you'll need all three of (Philly loses @Was, Philly loses @NYG, Dallas wins @Was) to control the tiebreakers. Getting only two moves it to common games record (currently Dallas 8-3, Philly 7-3).

I didn't write out the logic for a sweep because if either team sweeps they're almost certainly winning the division. I also kept the logic concerned only to tiebreakers since it's fairly easy to figure out the actual wins/losses with both teams currently tied: just win 1 more than the other team.

That win was absolutely crucial for the Cowboys even though it didn't look like it to most people. Thanks for nothing Giants :mad:

axeil fucked around with this message at 07:44 on Nov 24, 2014

# ¿ Nov 24, 2014 07:13

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Eifert Posting posted:

Realistically the Bengals need 3 of 5 to play in January. With how top heavy the AFC is I'm not confidant 9-6-1 will be good enough. Precluding a meltdown I don't see them dropping three of at TB, vs PIT, At CLE, vs DEN, at PIT. Pit and Denver are at the same level of play, but two are home games and the Bengals match up very well against Denver. They could win four or all five, but I'll feel much, much better if and when they don't poo poo the bed against the Buccaneers. If they have a let down in Tampa then they will be in a huge hole. If they can win those first two they'll have pretty much stamped their ticket.

Week 14 will decide the division. I expect Pittsburgh to win two of three against KC, ATL and NO. That said, I would really like the division to be secured before week 17. I'm OK with Pittsburgh trying to spoil our bye as a consolation for missing out again.

I'm not so sure I see 3 wins for the Bengals there. I'll give them TB and one of the Pitt games but that leaves the other Pitt game, @Cleveland and Denver. Those are all really tough games, especially since all three teams are fighting for playoff spots (or in Denver's case a bye). And I'm not even sure 10-5-1 will be enough. They might need 4 wins.

# ¿ Nov 24, 2014 07:50

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Eifert Posting posted:

Denver is a great match up for us. The Bengals have had excellent play from their secondary and their safeties have been great. Manning is still Manning but he can't put velocity on the ball so that helps us. I'm not sold on their defense at all, and I doubt their running game will outproduce ours. I was less confidant about @HOU and @CLE.

It definitely is the toughest stretch of our season, though. Realistically if Tampa beats us we're hosed, though. It'd be time to start rooting for like 6 AFC teams to suddenly tank.

I'll take your word for it, as you know the Bengals way better than I do.

Should be an exciting finish to the season for all the teams in the North. That tie is the :laugh:

of the division though.

# ¿ Nov 24, 2014 08:08

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

kalensc posted:

Last Updated: Monday, November 24th, 23h30

Philadelphia Eagles: Philly is well-positioned to win the NFCE, so long as they split or sweep the Dallas matches. See axeil's excellent breakdown here.

Thanks for the mention. Glad my late night ramblings can be put to good use. :unsmith:

# ¿ Nov 25, 2014 17:01

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

kalensc posted:

No thanks needed, very happy to see other people doing some "in the margins" analysis! My Sunday and Monday evenings are booked solid with real life sports these days so I can't crank out as many scenarios as in the past, or at least not until there's 8 games or less which affect a given playoff spot.

Oh great! I love working these things out so I might do some more as the weeks go on.

# ¿ Nov 25, 2014 20:02

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Febreeze posted:

That's what happened to the Eagles in...2009? 10? They played the Cowboys, lost, then had to play the Cowboys again the next week, and lost again as Romo got his one and only playoff win

That owned

It was McNabb's last game as an Eagle. :smith:

What makes it even worse is had the Eagles beaten the Cowboys in week 17 they would've gotten a bye. Instead they got to lose to Dallas. Twice.

# ¿ Nov 26, 2014 07:15

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

NicelyNice posted:

I'm obviously confused by the tie-breakers, but does the head-to-head win by Dallas against the Seahawks mean nothing as long as another team has the same record as well?

Depends if the tie is in the division or out of it. If the tie is with someone in your division you resolve that first, otherwise it goes to conference record.

# ¿ Nov 28, 2014 06:16

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

What kinda surprises me is that the Eagles can clinch as early as week 14 if they beat the Seahawks and then the Cowboys. That would make them the first to clinch right?

# ¿ Nov 29, 2014 21:06

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Lord Waffle Beard posted:

So here is the most likely scenario as far as I can tell

No way Green Bay loses enough games to make back to the third seed the way they're playing. I admire your belief in the Buccs though.

# ¿ Nov 30, 2014 23:22

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Slight nitpick, but you still have my hypothetical analysis posted in the NFC scenarios. Now that we know Philly has won the first matchup against Dallas I think your write-up is more accurate. :shobon:

# ¿ Dec 1, 2014 22:35

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

I like that KC's vs Oakland record is still ??.

Truly that loss was too incredible to be real :v:

# ¿ Dec 2, 2014 06:49

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

MJBuddy posted:

St. Louis Rams opponents:
Arizona Cardinals - Palmer left the following week with nerve damage (like Manning's) and in their re-match tore his ACL
Tampa Bucs - McCown injured his thumb and lost the starting job.
Cowboys - Romo's Broken Back
Eagles - Nick Foles

Rams DC? Greg Williams.

But Foles got hurt against the Texans, not the Rams.

# ¿ Dec 10, 2014 14:03

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Eagles are gonna miss the playoffs because of their horrific tiebreaker situation. If only they'd lost to the AFC South instead of 3/4ths of the NFC West, Packers and Cowboys...

# ¿ Dec 15, 2014 06:07

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Yaws posted:

What has to happen for Philly to get in?

division: finish with the same record as dallas by either winning out and dallas dropping a game or winning one game and dallas losing out.

wild card: finish with more wins than at least one of seattle/az, or gb/det. basically they need more wins than whoever comes in 2nd in the north and west as they have no tiebreaker over them. easiest way is whoever loses the gb/det game loses next week.

# ¿ Dec 15, 2014 06:41

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

kalensc posted:

pre:

Tm. Rec. Div C.O NFC Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17  Divisional Results
--- ---- --- --- --- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- --------------------
N.O 06-8 2-2 4-4 5-5 Ls.f Lcin Lbal Wpit Lcar Wchi vAtl @T.B Atl-L? Car-WL T.B-W?
Car 05*8 3-2 2*4 5-6 Lphi Latl .bye Lmin Wn.o Wt.b vCle @Atl Atl-L? N.O-L? T.B W?
Atl 05-9 4-0 0-8 5-5 Wt.b Wcar Lcle Wari Lg.b Lpit @N.O vCar Car-W? N.O-W? T.B-W?

Common Opponents: NFC North, AFC North

Atl@N.O Cle@Car N.O@T.B Car@Atl  NFCS Champ
------- ------- ------- ------- ------------
  N.O     Cle      *       *    New Orleans (4/16)
  N.O     Car     N.O      *    New Orleans (2/16)
  N.O     Car     T.B     Atl   New Orleans (1/16)
  N.O     Car     T.B     Car   Carolina    (1/16)

  Atl      *       *      Atl   Atlanta     (4/16)
  Atl     Car      *      Car   Carolina    (2/16)
  Atl     Cle     T.B     Car   Carolina    (1/16)
  Atl     Cle     N.O     Car   New Orleans (1/16)

Summary:

- New Orleans and Atlanta both control their own destiny
- Atl is eliminated with any loss
- N.O has only one path left if they lose vAtl
- Carolina will control their own destiny if Atlanta wins @N.O

Eliminated: Tampa Bay (Wk13)

Raise your hand if you thought the NFC South would have the most exciting Week 16 and 17 playoff scenarios.

My Saints fan friend pointed this out to me. If Atlanta beats the Saints and the Panthers also win then going into week 17 the winner of Panthers/Falcons wins the division...unless they tie and then the Saints win. He's hoping the Saints win the South on a tie.

# ¿ Dec 16, 2014 14:29

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Parmesan Basil posted:

I'd rather miss the playoffs than get a wildcard and have to play Indy again. Cincy maybe but since there is a chance we'll play Indy I'd just take the top 20 pick

Good that will help enable the Bills to make the playoffs :getin:

# ¿ Dec 17, 2014 06:18

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

kalensc posted:

So here's the Eagles breakdown:

- If they win out:

NFCE Champ iff (if and only if) Dallas loses 1+ games

NFC Wild Card iff [Dal wins out AND either [Det@G.B loser also loses in Wk16 OR Sea loses out]].

- If they finish 1-1:

NFCE Champ iff Dallas loses out.

Cannot be a Wild Card.

- Thus Philly will be alive for the NFCE title heading into Week 17 unless they lose @Was & Dal wins vInd.

- To be alive for a Wild Card they must win @Was AND Dal must win vInd AND 1+ of (Det, G.B, & Sea) must lose.

So we're screwed. Seattle isn't losing out and I doubt GB or Detroit drop games against the Buccs or Bears. Colts are gonna rest everyone and the Skins are a joke.

Great job guys :suicide:

# ¿ Dec 17, 2014 18:19

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

kalensc posted:

So in case you're wondering why only Arizona and Detroit have clinched playoff spots, despite the Eagles being eliminated from Wild Card contention:

- If Philly wins in Wk 17 and Dallas loses out then Philly wins the NFCE East and Dallas is 10-6 with a 7-5 NFC record;
- If Detroit lost out they'd be 10-6 with a 8-4 NFC record so they'd be ahead of Dallas, thus they have clinched a playoff spot already;
- If Seattle lost out they'd be 10-6 and since they lost H2H vs Dallas they could finish as low as 7th overall, thus they have not yet clinched a playoff spot;
- If Green Bay lost out they'd be 10-6 and also have 7-5 NFC record, but they'd lose the C.O tie-breaker (see earlier posts breaking this down) and could finish as low as 7th, thus they have not yet clinched a playoff spot.

So a Dallas win over Indy clinches the NFCE for Dallas, and playoff spots for Detroit, Seattle, and Green Bay. The latter three teams can also clinch spots by themselves with a win or tie.

Yeah but the Eagles aren't gonna win the division so this is all gonna be moot in about 4 hours.

:smith:

# ¿ Dec 21, 2014 18:13

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

kalensc posted:

lovely second half play and decision making by Atlanta and New Orleans are the only reasons Detroit is in a position to win the division rather than be fighting Philadelphia to sneak in as the 6th seed. I wouldn't be handwringing over a loss to the Schwartz.

Detroit will definitely miss a 43-yarder as time expires and lose by 2 at Lambeau though.

Instead we'll get to be drafting 20th. Aka the last spot for non-playoff teams.

:suicide:

# ¿ Dec 23, 2014 09:45

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

kalensc posted:

Happy holidays to one and all!

May you receive your much sought after gift this week, so that it can soothe your soul after the Steelers' impending title run.

All I want is a pick lower than 20th but that appears impossible.

The 20th pick: the football equivalent of getting socks for Christmas.

# ¿ Dec 25, 2014 03:38

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Kwik posted:

Not only do you have a win-and-in game between a team that is 6-8-1 and another that is 6-9, but it is, theoretically, the CBS feature game today, Nantz and Simms calling it.

Nantz and simms should be punished by banishment to only call NFC South games for their crimes against watchable broadcasts.

# ¿ Dec 28, 2014 19:53

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

kalensc posted:

AFC

#6 Baltimore @ #3 Cin@Pit Winner
#5 Cin@Pit Loser @ #4 Indianapolis

(Indy #3, Cin #4, Pit #5 if Cin@Pit is a tie)

Can't the Bengals still get a bye if the Broncos drop a game to the Raid-ahahahahahahaha yeah that's not happening.

# ¿ Dec 28, 2014 23:05

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 11:57

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

kalensc posted:

NFC

#6 Detroit @ #3 Dallas
#5 Arizona @ #4 Carolina

Just waiting on dates/times now, but that won't be settled until Cin@Pit is won I reckon, ESPN will want to stick Pit@Ind as the Sat Night Football game if it comes to be.

ESPN has a playoff game now?

# ¿ Dec 29, 2014 02:06

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