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I'll lay out my plan as straightforward as I can. I plan on quitting my job in May and completely withdrawing my 401k. After tax penalties I should have about 13k or so. I was going to invest 6k or so into NTDOY as they have recently announced their interest in the mobile market and as a result their stock shot up from $11 a share to $24 a share and after the initial surge it's resting at about $18ish. I figure they will announce their release plans for the mobile market around E3 and it's my belief that as a result of these announcements the stock will shoot up even more. That's why I'm planning to invest half of my 401k into their stock and sell them at an exit plan resting around $30 or so a share. If that exit plan fails I will plan to invest in them long term and sell when they can reach that exit plan. In the meantime I plan to take a month or so off work and rest a bit with the rest of my 401k and then go with a company that has better wages/benefits and retirement plans. I have been told that this is absolutely insane and will be throwing my life away and I don't understand why. I realize it is a risk as with anything in the stock market but I don't see it as a life ruining risk if it fails and in the event I end up losing all of my money somehow which I honestly don't believe will happen but if it does I will still have regular employment and will still be living a fairly comfortable although not necessarily wealthy life. So tell me why I'm totally nuts.
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Mar 23, 2015 04:52
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I'm proud of you for posting this thread g0lbez 
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Mar 23, 2015 04:53
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pig slut lisa posted:I'm proud of you for posting this thread g0lbez Thank you. And to any future posters I may provide arguments and such as to why I think this is a good idea but please don't believe it's a pointless endeavor. I can be easily swayed by good evidence and logic, I just need to understand exactly why this is a terrible idea and the implications of it.
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Mar 23, 2015 04:54
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To add a few more relevant details, g0lbez: -has no debt (yay!) -does not have a job offer in hand for the second job, and his wife is not currently employed -is 27 years old
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Mar 23, 2015 04:56
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You'd be better off putting it on black. Nintendo got a punch on the news already. The wait is on execution and reception translating into actual revenue. This is complete and utter speculating here and there is nothing to say that you could just as well hold it long to make your money. Balance your portfolio and forget it. Don't even think about paying those penalties.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:05
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The stupidest part to me seems to be quitting your job without having another one lined up. You can still do your (utterly retarded) Nintendo investment idea once you get another job lined up, then quit your current job and cash out your 401k at that time.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:10
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Craptacular posted:The stupidest part to me seems to be quitting your job without having another one lined up. You can still do your (utterly retarded) Nintendo investment idea once you get another job lined up, then quit your current job and cash out your 401k at that time. Well, what would be the point in waiting until I have a second job to quit that one? At least before I get the second job I'm pretty much guaranteed to get it as I have more than enough qualifications for it.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:11
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g0lbez posted:pretty much guaranteed I would advise you to stop thinking this way about any of your schemes. And just because you are qualified doesn't mean you are the best candidate. Honestly I'm confused why you started the whole thing out with quitting your job but that you have coupled the two plans together demonstrates that you're pretty much off your gourd.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:17
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AgrippaNothing posted:I would advise you to stop thinking this way about any of your schemes. And just because you are qualified doesn't mean you are the best candidate. I can't withdraw the 401k unless I quit.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:19
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It is a lose-lose bet. There are people who make these kind of bets for a living, but they don't make guesses, they either use inside information or deep research to make calls here is an example quote:Twice a week a small helicopter circles over Cushing’s tank farms on an oil industry spying mission. A photographer sitting next to the pilot in the two-man cockpit snaps pictures of the tanks below to gauge how full they are. Most tanks have floating roofs that move up and down inside their cylindrical walls depending on how much oil is inside. The length of the shadows cast across these roofs indicates the amount of oil stored within (the longer the shadow, the emptier the tank). Recently, photographers have started using infrared cameras to peer inside the tanks. The difference in heat can often show where the oil line is. These people have already made the trade and the stock price has adjusted accordingly. You are just giving them your money if you try to play their game . TL DR You are putting your money on yourself in a basketball game that is you vs Lebron 1 on 1.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:21
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g0lbez posted:I can't withdraw the 401k unless I quit. Well, I guess there's that. And you are quitting because you think nintendo is going to pop (hint, it's probably not). Is there anything anyone could say that would make you rethink this? If anyone supports you in this decision here, they are loving trollolling at you. It's loving stupid. Close thread.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:21
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AgrippaNothing posted:Well, I guess there's that. And you are quitting because you think nintendo is going to pop (hint, it's probably not). Of course, that's why I made the thread because I recognize it might be a risky decision but I've not been told how risky aside from it's essentially gambling. Foma posted:It is a lose-lose bet. There are people who make these kind of bets for a living, but they don't make guesses, they either use inside information or deep research to make calls That's a damning quote but it's about the oil trade which doesn't have much relevancy on NTDOY
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Mar 23, 2015 05:25
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g0lbez posted:Well, what would be the point in waiting until I have a second job to quit that one? Continued cash flow?
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Mar 23, 2015 05:26
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Craptacular posted:Continued cash flow? For some reason I read that as quitting my second job and cashing out my 401k there which is why I was confused. So it would make more sense then to do this when I already am working a second job? Like would it elevate my plans from "loving insanity" to at least "stupid but understandable?"
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Mar 23, 2015 05:28
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g0lbez posted:That's a damning quote but it's about the oil trade which doesn't have much relevancy on NTDOY That is an example, they do this for every industry/company, wherever there is a trade to be made. They have an entertainment company desk, and they have a person who is trained and employed to figure out what NTDOY is going to do. You don't have the means or the ability to play against them. Which is why you just put it in an index fund and let it grow. By doing this you are playing a different game and one that you are likely to win.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:28
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g0lbez, what's the market for smartphone games and how much of that market is Nintendo poised to capture with Mario games? What's the revenue potential in the first year?
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Mar 23, 2015 05:33
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g0lbez posted:Of course, that's why I made the thread because I recognize it might be a risky decision but I've not been told how risky aside from it's essentially gambling. Maybe this will help. Nintendo is currently sitting at $18.69/share. What does that price represent? Why is the price at that particular number, and not $14.50 or $26.65 or any other number? Think about it, and then scroll down. The answer is not that $18.69 is the "correct" valuation of Nintendo in any objective sense. Rather, it means that the market as a whole thinks that Nintendo is worth $18.69. But of course not everybody is in lockstep with the market average. Rather, there are lots of people (smart and dumb, rich and not-so-rich, risky and risk-averse) who think that Nintendo is underpriced to some degree. There are also lots of people who think that Nintendo is overpriced to some degree. The fact that the stock price fluctuates over time represents the fact that sometimes the underpriced crew is buying and sometimes the overpriced crew is selling. Over time, of course, some of these people will be proven right and will make money. But that means that the other group is going to be proven wrong and will lose money. Remember, both groups have lots of people who have been doing this for a longer time than you, have better training in this sort of thing than you, and research the company more thoroughly than you. And some of these really smart really experienced people are still going to lose! With that being the case, what gives you the confidence that you're picking with the right group of geniuses?
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Mar 23, 2015 05:37
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AgrippaNothing posted:g0lbez, what's the market for smartphone games and how much of that market is Nintendo poised to capture with Mario games? What's the revenue potential in the first year? Well from my experience working tech support for smart phone games I would say the market is absolutely loving nuts and that people ask me for "mario games" on the appstore on at least a daily basis. Revenue wise I'm not going to pretend I have exact numbers or anything.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:38
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What do you do for a living? You sound off your rocker. If you really really really want to do this I would recommend getting a new job. Once you start working there you can cash out your 401k and throw away your money, err, I mean invest in Nintendo and retire early.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:42
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g0lbez posted:Well from my experience working tech support for smart phone games I would say the market is absolutely loving nuts and that people ask me for "mario games" on the appstore on at least a daily basis. Revenue wise I'm not going to pretend I have exact numbers or anything. I would agree that the market seems hot to me. But here's the thing: assuming that that's correct, the stock market has already priced this in. In other words, the stock price for companies involved in the smart phone game business isn't the stock price of companies that are about to take off, it's the stock price of companies that are already taking off. So what AgrippaNothing is asking is not "are people gonna continue to play lots of smart phone games", it's "how much is that market gonna grow, and how much of that growth is the specific company of Nintendo going to capture relative to peers?"
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Mar 23, 2015 05:42
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pig slut lisa posted:The answer is not that $18.69 is the "correct" valuation of Nintendo in any objective sense. Rather, it means that the market as a whole thinks that Nintendo is worth $18.69. But of course not everybody is in lockstep with the market average. Rather, there are lots of people (smart and dumb, rich and not-so-rich, risky and risk-averse) who think that Nintendo is underpriced to some degree. There are also lots of people who think that Nintendo is overpriced to some degree. The fact that the stock price fluctuates over time represents the fact that sometimes the underpriced crew is buying and sometimes the overpriced crew is selling. This is my mindset: I know it's a risk and I'm not guaranteed to pick the right group. If I do then I make a shitload of money and am sitting on a ton of liquid assets. If it doesn't work out I get a bit sad and continue on with my life as I have been. If I don't invest and it turns out I missed the boat then I get even more sad and continue with my life as I have been with my retirement fund intact. If that mindset is legitimately wrong and destructive then I'm honestly not sure what words and in what combination can snap me out of it but as of right now it just seems like I'm taking a risk which I'm okay with as I've already weighed out all the downsides and upsides to the risk. Anyway, I'm just being honest with my thoughts and how I came to this decision and I'm not sure what can completely convince me this is an awful idea but if it truly is a horrendous idea then I can only hope I'll listen to some well-versed dude explain to me in plain terms why or why not this risk is essentially betting everything I have on 00 and hoping for the best.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:43
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pig slut lisa posted:I would agree that the market seems hot to me. But here's the thing: assuming that that's correct, the stock market has already priced this in. In other words, the stock price for companies involved in the smart phone game business isn't the stock price of companies that are about to take off, it's the stock price of companies that are already taking off. Is it really a question of how much they're going to grow or if they're going to grow at all? Is it unreasonable to think that the stock price would rise at least somewhat and not fall? If it does fall a bit then what's the worst case scenario? I pull my money back out, lose about a grand or so, get some back in taxes and reinvest it into the 401k plan of my next company.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:45
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g0lbez posted:Well from my experience working tech support for smart phone games I would say the market is absolutely loving nuts and that people ask me for "mario games" on the appstore on at least a daily basis. Revenue wise I'm not going to pretend I have exact numbers or anything. In other words objectively you don't have the first clue about the market potential at all nor what the projected revenues would do to the price per earnings and the future value of the stock. Pig Slut Lisa is right, there are people playing this game with way more knowledge than you. Don't fool yourself for a moment thinking you can win here. Like I said, just put it on black... at least that's a real immediate pay off that I think you are looking for.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:46
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g0lbez posted:Is it really a question of how much they're going to grow or if they're going to grow at all? Is it unreasonable to think that the stock price would rise at least somewhat and not fall? If it does fall a bit then what's the worst case scenario? I pull my money back out, lose about a grand or so, get some back in taxes and reinvest it into the 401k plan of my next company. How much are you paying in penalties and taxes to liquidate your 401k? If Nintendo hits $30 a share, how much are you profiting? Have you considered that yo will pay capital gains taxes, assuming you profit on the sale of Nintendo? What is your 401k worth right now? Edit - $6,000 / $18 per share = 333.33 shares, * $30 = $10,000, -$6,000 initial investment = $4k. You're talking about doing all of this just to make four loving thousand dollars? becoming fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Mar 23, 2015 |
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Mar 23, 2015 05:49
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becoming posted:How much are you paying in penalties and taxes to liquidate your 401k? If Nintendo hits $30 a share, how much are you profiting? Have you considered that yo will pay capital gains taxes, assuming you profit on the sale of Nintendo? What is your 401k worth right now? it's worth about 18k, withdrawing it would give me about 13k or so minus the tax penalties. If I invest in NTDOY at say $18 a share and they get to $30 then... I guess I don't get a whole lot of money yeah. Well............
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Mar 23, 2015 05:52
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g0lbez posted:it's worth about 18k, withdrawing it would give me about 13k or so minus the tax penalties. If I invest in NTDOY at say $18 a share and they get to $30 then... I guess I don't get a whole lot of money yeah. Well............ So basically if I invested all of my 401k which I wasn't really planning on doing I would still only get about 3k more than what my 401k is worth if NTDOY somehow gets up to $30. Sorry about this thread. I'm gonna goto sleep and rethink this with a clearer head.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:54
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g0lbez posted:For some reason I read that as quitting my second job and cashing out my 401k there which is why I was confused. So it would make more sense then to do this when I already am working a second job? Like would it elevate my plans from "loving insanity" to at least "stupid but understandable?" That would go from moronic to just retarded. If you want to advance to merely "stupid", then you'd: 1) Get another job offer (in writing) before you quit your current job. 2) Quit your current job. (See the order here?) 3) Roll over your 401(k) into a self-directed IRA, tax free. If you pick a brokerage for your IRA that lets you buy individual stocks instead of mutual funds, then you'd be able to buy Nintendo stocks in the IRA. You wouldn't be able to write off the losses once the Nintendo stock price goes down though. But still, let me emphasize, quitting a job just to get access to 401(k) funds would be a very bad decision. You're young. Put your money in a goddamn mutual fund, let the power of compound interest work for you, and make your career decisions about the actual job. If you want to gamble, go spend a dollar on a lottery ticket.
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Mar 23, 2015 05:59
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g0lbez posted:I'll lay out my plan as straightforward as I can. So your plan is to buy $6k of Nintendo stock and sell when it reaches $10k, for a profit of $4k. In order to do this, you will quit your job. I know a better way to make $4k. How about working for 2 months? If you do your Nintendo plan and the stock doesn't hit $30 within 2 months, you lose your bet and would have been better off working for those two months. In addition, if you did win your bet on Nintendo, after two months you now have no job. Congratulations, you still lose.
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Mar 23, 2015 06:12
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g0lbez posted:I'll be completely straight up with you, I don't particularly have much thought about my retirement plans. It's not healthy I acknowledge that but I'm more concerned about my present situation then what I'm going to be doing when I'm 50-60 years old. Again it's not responsible I see that but that's my line of thought. The above quote is pulled from your E/N thread. No matter what investment you do it is for the purpose of retirement. You have no thoughts about retirement and have no understanding of investing. Your best option is to leave your money in the 401k. What you are planning to do is to avoid dealing with your present situation. Everything else you've written is to justify to yourself an extremely poor decision that others have compared to gambling. The old fashioned description is having all your eggs in one basket which has a large potential downside. Retirement is, in fact, the last thing you should be concentrating your effort into. Your immediate problems need to be looked at. Quitting your job, cashing out your 401k to live on for a month and to gambling on a lovely stock is very self-destructive. A friend of mine went down a similar path but he quit his job to become a professional card player. That was the start of a series of events that led to his suicide. A stable job with 401k contributions is the best thing you could have for both your financial and mental health. Also you want to take a tax hit of $5k to gamble that you might make $4k on a lovely stock. That's financially retarded, even without factoring in the lost compounding gains at retirement. You'd need the price to go up enough to make $9k to net $4k of profit. e: updated math Devian666 fucked around with this message at 07:47 on Mar 23, 2015 |
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Mar 23, 2015 07:05
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If you invest, at least invest in a company that makes a goddamn profit.
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Mar 23, 2015 07:14
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g0lbez posted:Sorry about this thread. I'm gonna goto sleep and rethink this with a clearer head. This was a good thread. I'm glad what everyone said made sense to you.
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Mar 23, 2015 07:30
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You can achieve the same result without the 401k penalties by just buying way out of the money call options on Nintendo stock. But don't do that either because you are not smart enough to beat the market. This is hilariously small change and you're literally thinking of quitting your job and taking a gigantic (for you), guaranteed tax hit to do so. blah_blah fucked around with this message at 09:33 on Mar 23, 2015 |
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Mar 23, 2015 09:30
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g0lbez posted:I was going to invest 6k or so into NTDOY as they have recently announced their interest in the mobile market and as a result their stock shot up from $11 a share to $24 a share and after the initial surge it's resting at about $18ish. First of all, you are interested in the stock mainly because they recently rose in price. Are you typically interested in goods that recently became 100+% more expensive in the normal world? No? Then why are you interested in Nintendo stock? Because you falsely assume that since the price rose recently, it will rise more again. Your exit plan is also baseless. Why do you want to sell them at $30? There are only two* good reasons to sell a stock: 1) You need the money desperately now, or, 2) You think you can use the money invested to make an even better investment instead. Selling at a certain stock price just because you think that's a nice round number makes no sense. Read this book and start over. *A third reason can be to re-adjust the diversity of your portfolio. Pilsner fucked around with this message at 11:38 on Mar 23, 2015 |
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Mar 23, 2015 11:34
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You are 27 and only have 12k in a 401k? Which you are planning to withdraw, oh and you want to quit your job? Are you absolutely nuts? I mean, at your age, i guess it's an ok balance, but you should be maxing out your 401k not zeroing it out. I am kicking myself for not having maxed my 401k the last 10 years. Also stop gambling with your money.
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Mar 23, 2015 15:02
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Couldn't you just trade in whatever your 401k is in for Mario shares? Then your GAINZ will at least be in your 401k. I mean, no 4k beater car but still.
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Mar 23, 2015 15:26
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BTW, Nintendo already made it pretty clear that they aren't going to mercilessly pimp out their games to mobile by just porting everything. (There was an interview I read where they correctly noted that the interface of playing a mobile game is entirely different and Mario just wouldn't feel the same.) So, that should put a damper on things financially, since they aren't going to be releasing all that many mobile products I bet. And with how cutthroat and unequal the mobile market is (nobody makes money except for a few at the top) and with how slowly Nintendo has been at embracing new tech (see: rough around the edges online gaming with the wii/wii u) I'd put a 50/50 chance on them releasing a single $40 iPad Mario galaxy clone that goes nowhere. They're not going to be slick/scummy enough to embrace the kind of business model shenanigans that people are using to make money in mobile these days. As everyone else noted though this is a bad plan in general for any single company whatsoever. Don't cash out your 401k, it's practically guaranteed that you'll regret it even if it's hard to picture your future right now.
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Mar 23, 2015 15:46
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God drat I have never heard of a stupider idea. Hey, let me quit my job to go gamble on roulette. I don't know how roulette works or anything, but I really really think the next roll is going to be sixteen. How about convince your wife to go pluck off one of those jobs from that magical job tree, how about that? Is that an idea? How about you go get that job and have her go in as you on the first day pretending to be transgender. You'll probably get $4k of salary before anyone realizes she's not you and doesn't have any skills. Or some other other completely idiotic plan that is still somehow less idiotic than your plan of "STOCKZ LOLOL"
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Mar 23, 2015 16:55
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moana posted:God drat I have never heard of a stupider idea. I have definitely heard of stupider ideas, but I am really glad for g0lbez (and his wife) that he seems to have backed away from this one. g0lbez, good on you for taking a night to sleep on it. We all entertain crazy ideas some days. Usually it's better not to go through with them.
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Mar 23, 2015 18:29
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moana posted:How about convince your wife to go pluck off one of those jobs from that magical job tree, how about that? Is that an idea? How about you go get that job and have her go in as you on the first day pretending to be transgender. You'll probably get $4k of salary before anyone realizes she's not you and doesn't have any skills. Or some other other completely idiotic plan that is still somehow less idiotic than your plan of "STOCKZ LOLOL" This is a much better plan than the original plan, because here the possible outcomes are 1) she gets discovered instantly and the plan ends up with 0 income gained or lost, or 2) she is not discovered instantly and you make a profit greater than 0. Compare this to the original plan, which had possible outcomes where you actually lost a lot of money.
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Mar 23, 2015 18:34
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quote:I'll be completely straight up with you, I don't particularly have much thought about my retirement plans. It's not healthy I acknowledge that but I'm more concerned about my present situation then what I'm going to be doing when I'm 50-60 years old. Again it's not responsible I see that but that's my line of thought. BFC posted:Hey maybe you shouldn't cancel your car insurance if you're going to be driving? What happens if you get into an accident? g0lbez posted:I'll be completely straight up with you, I don't particularly have much thought about what happens if I get in a car crash. It's not healthy I acknowledge that but I'm more concerned about my present situation than what I'm going to be doing if I get in an accident. Again it's not responsible I see that but that's my line of thought. Cicero fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Mar 23, 2015 |
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Mar 23, 2015 19:12
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