Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Best thread title. Let's do this.

Which pick do I use on Charles Sims? 1.01 or 0.01?

# ¿ May 4, 2015 16:58

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# ¿ Apr 29, 2024 12:16

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Jose Valasquez posted:

This is the year for Kyle Rudolph. TE sleeper pick of the year, count on it.

Yessss

# ¿ May 4, 2015 19:48

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

LmaoTheKid posted:

I'm at a complete loss with what I'm going to do with Ellington. I'm keeping Jeremy Hill for an 8th and can keep AE for a 10th but drat he's fragile. Apparently they've made the line better so maybe he'll have better blocking this year?

Assuming you have no better options I think AE is worth a dice roll at that price.

# ¿ May 4, 2015 23:31

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Bryant is the man there not AE.

Edit: my favorite MB fact that doesn't make sense but kinda does is he had more FPPG last season than Kelvin Benjamin (9.9 to 8.9375 according to my back of napkin math)

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 23:56 on May 4, 2015

# ¿ May 4, 2015 23:52

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I had Wilson as my #3 QB (Luck/Rodgers/Wilson) and apparently so does ESPN so what I'm saying is I guess I need a new #3...?

# ¿ May 6, 2015 06:43

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

District Selectman posted:

How much better would you feel with Wilson over like the next 10 guys? I wouldn't be mad if he fell to me, but I'll be damned if I target Russell Wilson. Brees and Manning feel like higher floor, safer picks. Cam, Tannehill, Stafford, Bradford, and Kaep all have much higher ceilings.

I'm excited for Abdullah in Detroit and Agholor in Philly. I'll probably go for Jordan Matthews too. Riley Cooper is hot garbage, and whoever is the #1 receiver is fantasy gold.

How do you figure Brees and Manning have higher floors?

Brees: Lost Stills, lost Graham. Draft picks/trade for Unger indicate a turn towards the running game. He's quickly running out of targets and the team is indicating a change to a run-first attitude.
Manning: He's old as poo poo, was destroyed by an injury last season, and is 39. You don't not get injured at 39. He has one of the lower floors of the top ten because he can basically die on the field at any point.

Wilson's rushing yards puts his floor higher than the them. His shiftiness and trading away the only non-poo poo piece of that offensive line means more scrambles and more yards.

Bradford will have a high ceiling for the 6 games he plays, yes.

# ¿ May 7, 2015 07:03

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Big Ben ain't making it to rounds 9-11 in any draft I'm in. It's going 6 WR/RB and then Big Ben.

# ¿ May 7, 2015 07:34

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

So Gronk is a mid-second rounder now?

# ¿ May 11, 2015 23:10

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I think if you're a not-as-good QB in a Bill Belichick offense that changes weekly you get the ball taken out of your hands. Also you've never started a game before and are taking over for one of the best in the game. That offense is going to lose a ton of passing opportunities.

And semantics it's 4 of 15 unless you play in a garbo week 17 league.

# ¿ May 12, 2015 01:33

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

DMC is going to severely test the idea that anyone can run behind that line. He bad football man.

# ¿ May 13, 2015 00:41

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I write dumb little things for a website for writing practice for fantasy sports and people in my league ask me advice because of it. It's so weird and I just give vague non-answers.

Especially since I'm Not Too Great at fantasy sports (compared to goons). It's all stabs in the dark, anyway.

# ¿ May 13, 2015 17:06

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

My gut tells me to keep John Brown over Lorenzo Taliaferro but you're cutting a ton of RBs and those you're left with are a mess so you may have to keep Taliaferro just in case.

Edit: totally missed Kenny Britt. I agree. He's trash poop, pick another NFC West WR (I choose Brown)

Spoeank fucked around with this message at 18:48 on May 16, 2015

# ¿ May 16, 2015 18:31

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

And then Bishop Sankey's. Because Bishop Sankey is not very good at football.

# ¿ May 17, 2015 03:21

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Snarky quips from bored news desk guys are one of the underrated aspects of sports coverage.

# ¿ May 17, 2015 07:10

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Studfeld*

Anyway all TEs are just varying levels of inconsistent suck except Gronk and Graham so throw em in a blender gently caress it.

# ¿ May 19, 2015 04:07

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Gyshall posted:

The Abdullah hype train is going to go off the rails at some point - I love him, but who knows what that situation could be like. (fantasy_drafts_in_may.txt)

Jamey Eisenberg was talking about him as a top-25 back. I imagine it's going to get worse (higher ADP) from there. Does nobody remember Bishop Sankey?

# ¿ May 22, 2015 18:34

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Joique Bell's usage makes him a "young" 29 though.

# ¿ May 22, 2015 19:35

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

RCarr posted:

if you don't take Montee Ball in the first round.

Sorry that spot is earmarked for Charles Sims.

# ¿ Jun 5, 2015 17:02

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Goddamn that's some good stuff.

Also I'm doing my fifth mock draft in five nights even though it will be useless in doing any sort of valuation. Just gotta draft.

# ¿ Jun 12, 2015 05:19

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

LmaoTheKid posted:

Or you drafted correctly to begin with

But generally my last 6 picks are gone by week 6 due to add/drops.

If you ain't churnin, you ain't tryin.

# ¿ Jun 12, 2015 18:45

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Like half of y'all lit a roster spot on fire for 2014 Josh Gordon :lol:

That's an all-time fantasy football waste of a roster spot

# ¿ Jun 12, 2015 21:01

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

LmaoTheKid posted:

Too much churnin means you need some learnin

Sometimes when your matchups don't got right and the other teams are doing the burning, you get the yearning for churning

# ¿ Jun 12, 2015 22:53

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

RIP Zach Studfeld, the destitute man's pre-season Kyle Rudolph

# ¿ Jun 16, 2015 01:43

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I'm doing an NFL.com league for the first time and I've never seen such dog poo poo rankings :stare:

# ¿ Jun 18, 2015 06:29

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Can everyone in Cheating for Charity play for SLPC in wheez's honor this year? I think it would be a good gesture.

Sad stuff man :smith:

# ¿ Jun 19, 2015 03:44

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

He suddenly passed a few weeks ago & the news just got to SA. There's a thread in TFF about it.

# ¿ Jun 19, 2015 04:38

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

VDay posted:

Wait it actually was an April Fool's joke after all? Their little FAQ even had a part specifically saying "This isn't an April Fool's joke." Way to not understand how April fool's works I guess.

There also was the little thing where it was posted on March 31st.

# ¿ Jun 21, 2015 06:49

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Nah Boldin is a good call. He's the #1 read, and that's all Kaep is capable of

# ¿ Jun 24, 2015 01:58

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

The vast majority of the Niners' losses were on defense or losing competition for Boldin. Even if they're a dumpster fire Boldin will produce.

# ¿ Jun 24, 2015 02:22

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Arctic Baldwin posted:

I think I will have 6 leagues this year but they will at least all be on Yahoo soooo

Me too but 4 Yahoo, 1 ESPN (Cheating for Charity) and 1 NFL.com ( :barf:

)

# ¿ Jun 29, 2015 05:44

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

railroad terror posted:

Why would you do this to yourself

I got hyped into joining a league and I committed and then I got the invite :negative:

# ¿ Jun 29, 2015 16:48

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

pangstrom posted:

I may just be used to it but Yahoo and ESPN are both fine and I don't have any recent experience with the other ones.

Every year when it's time to start up again I have to find yahoo's ff page and it usually involves going through yahoo's other pages i.e. trying to navigate through some aggressively bad and busy design decisions.

Their fantasy landing page is easy enough to remember though: fantasysports.yahoo.com

# ¿ Jun 29, 2015 17:13

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Beware if you join the league though because halfway through the draft you slowly start to hate yourself because it's so goddamned difficult.

# ¿ Jun 30, 2015 02:01

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Question though

How do you undervalue 1.01

# ¿ Jul 2, 2015 21:23

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

It definitely shifted towards Hill towards the end of the year, but Gio still got touches & lots more targets.

# ¿ Jul 2, 2015 23:50

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Nah gently caress The Audible.

# ¿ Jul 5, 2015 02:49

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

The Audible is headed by megadouche insufferable rear end in a top hat Cecil Lammey and also its like 1/3 to 1/2 Broncos and is single handedly responsible for anyone drafting Cody Latimer last year.

David Dodds is also a dick bag so gently caress FBG in general. Sigmund Bloom seems pretty cool though.

# ¿ Jul 5, 2015 08:46

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Azhais posted:

Cecil is one of the Broncos' beat writers. You basically need to disregard everything he says about them just like every report during mini camps

I have a personal bias against him because he got dragged into some twitter argument I was having where I said people are going to be overdrafting CJA this year and he just basically replied "no you're wrong" repeatedly when I tried to have a discussion with him. He acts like the only halfway intelligent people are the ones who agree with him. In a business where the best of the best are right 60% of the time you need to calm your rear end down. Plus his name is Cecil.

Also David Dodds called FBG competitor websites imitators so gently caress 'em all.

# ¿ Jul 5, 2015 19:30

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

RVProfootballer posted:

This is thrown around a ton. What does it mean exactly? They predict the positional rankings of 60% of the players accurately? Their projections are +/- 100 yards on 60% of players? 60% of the players they ranked as RB1 (#1-12), RB2 (#13-24), etc., are correct?

FantasyPros tracks expert accuracy and it's their methodology:

http://www.fantasypros.com/about/faq/accuracy/

# ¿ Jul 6, 2015 01:11

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# ¿ Apr 29, 2024 12:16

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Spot: Claimed.

Also MFL is probably the premier no roster management website because navigating the site is a loving goddamn disaster

# ¿ Jul 10, 2015 04:23

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