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this checks out
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Jan 24, 2016 06:21
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blue footed boobie posted:OP as a legitimate criticism I think you need better graphics. Your blog entries are walls of words that most casual visitors won't read, and your graphs can't be read by themselves. Good luck with your advanced stats. 
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Jan 24, 2016 06:23
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OP can you give us some background on yourself, your education, aspirations in the sports media or business field, who inspires you, etc? Are you gunning for a "front office" job or would you be more of a writer type person.
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Jan 24, 2016 06:38
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Where's the graph on which teams plastics should support
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Jan 24, 2016 07:08
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Humphrey Vasel posted:Where's the graph on which teams plastics should support
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Jan 24, 2016 07:31
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8raz posted:behold 
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Jan 28, 2016 06:49
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nnelli posted:Been working on a lot of stat analysis for the EPL this season. Feedback appreciated! wait, what? this was serious??
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Jan 28, 2016 06:50
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Maybe change the tagline from 'Sports Analysis from an Sports Fan' to 'Sports Analysis from a Sports Fan'
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Jan 28, 2016 06:53
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straight up brolic posted:Maybe change the tagline from 'Sports Analysis from an Sports Fan' to 'Sports Analysis from a Sports Fan' (jealous hater)
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Jan 28, 2016 06:56
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Maybe change it to 'Sport Anal from an Anal Fan'
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Jan 28, 2016 07:07
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JFairfax posted:Maybe change it to 'Sport Anal from an Anal Fan' Maybe generate some of your own graphs and charts and writeups before getting rude
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Jan 28, 2016 07:13
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African AIDS cum posted:(jealous hater)
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Jan 28, 2016 07:16
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straight up brolic posted:Maybe change the tagline from 'Sports Analysis from an Sports Fan' to 'Sports Analysis from a Sports Fan' See, now that's some solid feedback.
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Jan 28, 2016 14:56
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nnelli posted:See, now that's some solid feedback. you havent done any analysis to give feedback on tho posting raw numbers isn't the same thing I'm sorry jokes are hard
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Jan 28, 2016 14:57
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EVER since brazen paedophile jfairfax closed the England thread a while ago so he could have the last word on England's next manager I've been thinking we should discuss it properly. This seems like as good a thread as any to do it in. Currently in the frame are jurgen klansmann and the man who puts the lard in allardyce, big Sam allardyce.
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Jul 11, 2016 15:22
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Whoever England's new manager is won't change the fact that the English team were probably the biggest disappointment in Euro 2016. Very sad, but I guess they're used to it by now. Wish I could give them our Euro 2016 trophy in gratitude for creating this sport we all love, but I can't. They'll have to earn it.
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Jul 11, 2016 15:36
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I thought Josh Leaman was the pedophile?
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Jul 11, 2016 15:44
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*rushes through the thread door panting while trying to keep my pants up as they keep falling down because i'm so fat* did anyone say.... advanced stats?!!!
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Jul 11, 2016 16:15
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It looks like poor nnelli hasn't updated his website since he posted this thread.
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Jul 11, 2016 23:34
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anal cyst
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Jul 12, 2016 01:16
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hey nneli advanced stats are supposed to be predictive so who do you predict will win the league this year so i can put a cool tenner on them
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Jul 12, 2016 03:07
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ps people derailing this thread is rude. this forums is already a cesspool but seeing all you chat thread losers mindlessly trolling just somehow makes it even worse
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Jul 12, 2016 03:08
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Sorry I would have posted a new thread but im on my phone
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Jul 12, 2016 10:35
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op, what do you think soccer needs in order to be a more interesting spectator sport? I've been thinking the BEPL needs a playoff+wild card system in order to shake the foundations of the big confederation, but with Leis'ter winning the last premiere league I feel like my idea may not be that sound. Is it a statistical error or is the premiere ligue really all that open?
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Jul 12, 2016 11:01
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advanced statsman posted:did anyone say.... advanced stats?!!! i did, hell i said it again
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Jul 12, 2016 21:48
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advanced statsman posted:op, what do you think soccer needs in order to be a more interesting spectator sport? I've been thinking the BEPL needs a playoff+wild card system in order to shake the foundations of the big confederation, but with Leis'ter winning the last premiere league I feel like my idea may not be that sound. Is it a statistical error or is the premiere ligue really all that open? needs multi ball. that is all.
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Jul 14, 2016 20:10
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IYaftepO-s
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Jul 19, 2016 22:03
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birds posted:needs multi ball. that is all. Please don't troll. We need the experience of a statshead here. The advanced stats community has been fighting for too long to get credited as one of the fundamental forces driving the development of sports, and I think we could all use some more statistical tools to think of soccer as a numbers game.
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Jul 19, 2016 22:05
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Clubs are actively looking for anything that will give them even a 5% edge over their rivals and advanced metrics are part of it. I've seen a demonstration of prozone and they can already do some really impressive things with it. The guy that showed me it was a physio and he demonstrated how they could use the vector information to figure out approximately how much force went through each of a player's legs over the course of the match, and can use that information to plan his training so as not to over exert one leg. It was fascinating, and things like that are (as I understand it) how statics are primarily being used. They're much less useful for determining a player's contribution and there was a goal a couple of seasons ago that really illustrates why. I wish I remembered which goal (I think it was Southampton against Man Utd, but I'm not even sure of that), but I think I can describe it adequately. The winger had the ball on the left wing, ahead of him he had only one striker being covered by two centre backs, the opposition right back was trying to show him down the wing. None of these players were really moving and everyone else (including an attacking mid) was rushing to catch up with play. I've drawn the key players here. The striker runs just a couple of yards towards the winger and one of the centre backs follows him. This opens a gap between the centre backs that the attacking midfielder runs through. The winger plays the ball in between the right back and the centre back into the path of the attacking midfielder and he scores. See here (I must say this tool adds random arrows, but they've all sort of fit so I've left them). I feel like there are lots of things in here I don't know how you'd quantify, but I particularly want to draw your attention to the short run of the striker that opens up the crucial space. He has possession at no point in the goal, he doesn't score, he doesn't assist, he makes no key passes, he covers not more than a couple of yards of ground. Maths aside, his contribution generates almost no numbers to even start manipulating, and yet his contribution absolutely made the goal. Again, I'm not saying that advanced stats have no place in football, and I'm not upset that people out there are trying to figure it out. All I'm doing is demonstrating the difficulties a purely numerical analysis can run into.
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Sep 22, 2016 16:10
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Do Pythagorean residuals provide insight into best manager performances? The Pythagorean residual of a team, defined as the difference between its actual and expected point totals given identical goal statistics, is used often to assess roughly its under-performance or over-performance. But can that residual be used to assess managerial performance, too? I’ve looked at Pythagorean tables for the most recent seasons of the English Premier League and noticed that in four of the last five seasons the Premier League Manager of the Season has come from a club with one of the two or three highest Pythagorean residuals in the table. Alan Pardew (2011-12) and Alex Ferguson (2012-13) managed teams with the highest Pythagorean residuals in the competition, and Ferguson (2010-11) and José Mourinho (2014-15) managed clubs that were very close to the highest residual. But if you look at the list of Managers of the Season recipients since the 1999-2000 season, you see something different:  Since the end of the 20th century, six winners of the Manager of the Season award managed clubs that were the biggest overachievers in the competition, according to the soccer Pythagorean table. If you want to be generous and include those managers whose clubs were a point away from the highest residual, there are nine Managers of the Season whose teams over-performed the most. So about 50% of those teams among the most over-performing in the Premier League saw their managers win the best of season award. It’s possible that the Pythagorean residual isn’t very informative when it comes to assessing managers, and some baseball sabermetricians have been similarly pessimistic about its utility. So it appears that the predictive power of Pythagorean residual to identify overachieving managers may not be much stronger than flipping a coin. Could actual points won as well as Pythagorean residual predict the team coached by the manager of season? Let’s build a support vector machine (SVM) classifier to find out. Support vector machines were invented by Vladimir Vapnik and Alexey Chervonenkis in the 1960s and refined by Vapnik and collaborators in the 1990s. Support vector machines are used primarily to create boundaries in space that classify data points into one of two (or more) categories. You can use a logistic regression to classify data points as well, but support vector machines have twin advantages of being more robust and able to create nonlinear boundaries more easily. For this classifier, the independent variables are the actual points won by a team in a given season, and the expected point total for that team. The dependent variable determines whether the team’s manager won the Manager of the Season award — yes=1, no=0. The SVM classifier uses a radial basis function kernel (C=1.0, γ=1.0) and is trained with 11 seasons (220 data points) of end-of-season point totals for Premier League teams. Five seasons of data, or 100 data points, are reserved to test the performance of the SVM. I ran the SVM at least ten times to assess the average performance of the classifier on the test set. Here it is: ————————Predicted ————————No—Yes Truth——No——82.7—12.3 —————Yes—1.4—3.6 Here is what a sample classifier looks like, overlaid with points from the test data set:  The classifier assigns those teams with leading point tables and Pythagorean residuals greater than zero to the Manager of the Season category. In most years, this is a reasonable thing to do, as almost all of the Premier League Managers of the Season have managed the top teams in the league and/or influenced them to perform much better than an average team with similar goal statistics. However, such a classifier will miss winning finalists such as George Burley with Ipswich Town or Tony Pulis with Crystal Palace, which are two sides that overcame preseason expectations as opposed to statistical expectations from matches already played. Nonetheless, the classifier, as simplistic as it is, does a fairly good job of identifying possible winners of Manager of the Season, as long as those Managers lead clubs near the top of the table. Does it provide insight that an observer couldn’t obtain by considering the champion or another team in the top three? No. It remains to be seen if this classifier can do as good a job of predicting Manager of the Season for this season (2015-16). I’ll revisit this question after Spurs’ match later today.
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Sep 22, 2016 16:19
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Thanks I have cancer now
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Sep 22, 2016 16:26
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