|
I don't see how you can look at a chart showing that concerns about refugees were by far the most important factor cited by AfD voters to explain their choice and then conclude that their decision was motivated by concerns about poverty rather than immigration. Concerns about social justice are not a "close" second there.
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 12:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 28, 2024 23:42 |
|
|
I didn't say that refugees were not important to it, they obviously were the catalyst to AfD blowing up like it did, but the point is that there have been other factors bubbling underneath the surface that got a lot of people to think they're a viable choice when it started to gain momentum. 56% that care about refugees means 44% that don't, and that's a whole lot. Like I said, that's not a surprise. It's a viable protest party and people who want to protest will vote for it even if they don't care for its flagship issue.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 12:29
|
|
It's also important to note that concerns about "Jobs" and "Social Justice" are evergreens that will always score high in this kind of poll. Germany overall has 4.7% unemployment rate and Ba-Wü is even below that with 4.1%, which is basically full employment. Poverty is certainly not the reason people are voting for the AfD.YF-23 posted:I didn't say that refugees were not important to it, they obviously were the catalyst to AfD blowing up like it did, but the point is that there have been other factors bubbling underneath the surface that got a lot of people to think they're a viable choice when it started to gain momentum. 56% that care about refugees means 44% that don't, and that's a whole lot. Like I said, that's not a surprise. It's a viable protest party and people who want to protest will vote for it even if they don't care for its flagship issue. It's not that 44% don't care about refugees, they just said wasn't the main reason why they voted for the AfD. A good portion of this group can be explained as AfD voters, who did not want the party to be portrayed as racist and therefore decided that it will look much better if they give reasons like "job" (the refugees are gonna steal them) and "social justice" (the refugees are getting everything). GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 12:34 on Mar 14, 2016 |
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 12:32
|
|
|
That cannot be the single primary reason they've voting for AfD because then the total goes over 100%. And I have no doubt that at least some of the non-refugee responses were dogwhistle, but I also believe (as a personal assessment) that the great majority of them were not.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 12:48
|
|
YF-23 posted:That cannot be the single primary reason they've voting for AfD because then the total goes over 100%. And I have no doubt that at least some of the non-refugee responses were dogwhistle, but I also believe (as a personal assessment) that the great majority of them were not. The people questioned were allowed to select up to 2 reasons, that's why it goes over 100%. The AfD has literally no program except for "refugees not welcome" that would appeal to ~the poor~
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 12:54
|
|
|
As a protest party you don't have to have a program for the poor to get protest votes from the poor. That is why, for example, in Greece, Golden Dawn drew a sizeable number of voters from KKE. There are votes that are not based off ideology or policy, but off protest.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 13:03
|
|
Merkel moving to little to late on the Balkan's route. It's still a mystery to me why no German politician has embraced the Macedonian solution to the problem as a stop-gap measure but instead everyone to the right of Merkel stuck to their guns about "national borders". quote:Regarding the Balkan route, yes, there is no doubt that Germany, at the moment, benefits from the fact that fewer people are coming and that also is connected to the closure of the Greek-Macedonian border," Merkel said during a news conference. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-germany-idUKKCN0WG1HE
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 15:26
|
|
|
Tesseraction posted:I think I prefer this thread's discussion on Britain leaving the EU to the bollocks in our national media. Exactly why I asked my original question, I wanted other people's views instead of the "everyone will die if you leave / stay" in our media.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 16:27
|
|
Dominionix posted:Exactly why I asked my original question, I wanted other people's views instead of the "everyone will die if you leave / stay" in our media. If you leave you will suffer a recession and depending on how dysfunctional your government is during the negotiations of the exit (I don't have high hopes for you, given how retarded even the supposed sane Tories are), you will either end up with a deal like Norway, where you have to pay into the EU budget and follow it's rules for access to the single market (best case) or Britain will fall back on the WTO trade rules and be utterly hosed because you are shut out of the financial and service market while your own product markets are still relatively open. That's not even touching on the question of how you will deal with the EU citizens currently living and working in Britain, who are providing essential services for your economy or how the Scots will react to the news. Basically the best outcome is that the UK will go from having a lot of privileges even compared to regular EU members to being a serf of the EU, while the worst case is that you become a higher developed North Korea. In other News: Macedonia is loving incompetent and seems to have forgotten the secure the border merely 4km away from Idomeni (where ~12k refugees are sitting) leading to a #marchofhope ... Next time you want to close your border, please ask for qualified help in Germany, there is some experience available... GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 16:42 on Mar 14, 2016 |
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 16:35
|
|
|
Leaving the EU is akin to burning down your own country in order to become King of the ashes. I think I'm quoting Game of Thrones here...
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 16:41
|
|
|
GaussianCopula posted:If you leave you will suffer a recession and depending on how dysfunctional your government is during the negotiations of the exit (I don't have high hopes for you, given how retarded even the supposed sane Tories are), you will either end up with a deal like Norway, where you have to pay into the EU budget and follow it's rules for access to the single market (best case) or Britain will fall back on the WTO trade rules and be utterly hosed because you are shut out of the financial and service market while your own product markets are still relatively open. By my own admission I am a long way from being well-informed on the matter, which is why I'm asking questions so please by all means correct me if I'm wrong, but: Whilst you are likely right that in the event of a Brexit the UK would have to pay for access to the European market (resulting in a similar scenario as Norway where we still commit a portion of money but get no say in the rule-making process) as I understand it the UK is a consumer in the European marketplace - ergo, as a nation we import far more than we export, so therefore would denying Britain access to the European marketplace not be a pretty loving stupid move on the part of the remaining EU members? There also seem to be a lot of statistics suggesting that the cost of contributions made by the UK far outweigh the economic benefits, though I struggle to identify if this is just "out" campaigns dressing up statistics to suit their own argument. What are your thoughts on the claims that Britain could simply go on to foster their own trade agreements with China / Australia / Russia et al?
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 17:03
|
|
Dominionix posted:Whilst you are likely right that in the event of a Brexit the UK would have to pay for access to the European market (resulting in a similar scenario as Norway where we still commit a portion of money but get no say in the rule-making process) as I understand it the UK is a consumer in the European marketplace - ergo, as a nation we import far more than we export, so therefore would denying Britain access to the European marketplace not be a pretty loving stupid move on the part of the remaining EU members? While it is true that the UK is a net importer from the EU, you have to look at it would change if the UK went back to a WTO trade regime (the fallback position unless the UK wants to quit the WTO, literally becoming North Korea). Under the WTO rules good can be imported fairly easily, especially because it's rather unlikely that the UK would want start a trade war with the EU, while services (including financial services) are pretty much shut out. Given the imbalance between goods (that's what the UK is importing) and services (that's what the UK is exporting) in the trade balance between the EU and GB, your trade deficit would probably become even larger if you leave. As to the question of stupid it would be for the EU to deny Britain access, well, if you believe that the EU is making all it's decisions purely based on what outcome makes the most sense economically, I have some very bad news for you. It's rather likely that the EU would want to turn Brexit into a case study why it's a really, really stupid idea to leave the EU than that they care about a few shekels Germany's export industry is going to lose. It's also worth noting that GB only accounts for something like 3% of EU exports while the EU accounts for 44% of the UK's exports. As for the Norway deal, keep in mind that the reason you would be leaving is that you don't want free movement, well, Norway and even Switzerland had to accept free movement, so such a deal might be a non-starter for the post-Brexit UK government, which means you get a worse deal. Dominionix posted:There also seem to be a lot of statistics suggesting that the cost of contributions made by the UK far outweigh the economic benefits, though I struggle to identify if this is just "out" campaigns dressing up statistics to suit their own argument. What are your thoughts on the claims that Britain could simply go on to foster their own trade agreements with China / Australia / Russia et al? Again, the biggest problem for the UK is that they are mostly exporting services and are that it is rather de-industrialized. You can make all the trade agreements you want with Russia, China (two economies that have their best years behind them) and Australia, but what are you going to sell them? Add to that the fact that distance is not a negligible factor in trade, which makes me wonder how big a factor a country like Australia can ever be? Your EU membership comes with a bill of ~6billion pound, which is about ~0.3% of your GDP. Do you really think the effects of a Brexit would be less than a 0.3% reduction in GDP growth?
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 18:18
|
|
|
Dominionix posted:There also seem to be a lot of statistics suggesting that the cost of contributions made by the UK far outweigh the economic benefits, though I struggle to identify if this is just "out" campaigns dressing up statistics to suit their own argument. What are your thoughts on the claims that Britain could simply go on to foster their own trade agreements with China / Australia / Russia et al? The US for one has said that it is not interested in negotiating trade agreements with individual countries. This is not just because they want to avoid Brexit, but also because negotiating free trade agreements (FTAs) is a very complex and time-consuming affair (the average trade agreement IIRC takes around three years to negotiate). There are real concerns whether the British bureaucracy is capable of negotiating an exit from the EU, let alone take on the additional task of negotiating all these individual FTAs. In fact, Cameron's office earlier this month released a report suggesting that negotiating an exit within the treaty-specified deadline of two years might not even be feasible. Even supposing that the UK could negotiate FTAs by itself, the question is whether the terms of these agreements would be as good as those achievable by and within the EU. The EU obviously has a lot more bargaining power than the UK.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 19:16
|
|
|
Looks like the #marchofhope organized by some NGOs in Greece today ended in tragedy but got them some nice pictures. But have a look for yourselves. It started like this https://twitter.com/GreekAnalyst/status/709354953979076608 until they encountered this river https://twitter.com/MovingEurope/status/709360991490981889 where this happened https://twitter.com/MSF_Sea/status/709353981416439808 and now those that survived get a trip back home (Idomeni) courtesy of the Macedonian army https://twitter.com/MSF_Sea/status/709450506574426112 but they got #marchofhope trending on twitter, so that's something right? RIGHT?
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 20:14
|
|
|
How else does the army normally transport human beings? Would it be preferable if the trucks were uncovered so the human beings can get rained on? All else aside that's a weird complaint to have.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 20:16
|
|
OwlFancier posted:How else does the army normally transport human beings? Would it be preferable if the trucks were uncovered so the human beings can get rained on? Well, considering that NGOs printed this map and spread it in Idomeni  to get some naughty pictures of Greek and Macedonian officials reacting to the #marchofhope, it's not to hard to imagine that certain NGOs or people working at NGOs would be very happy if the refugees would be transported in uncovered trucks through cold and rain. Makes for better pictures.
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 20:20
|
|
|
GaussianCopula posted:Well, considering that NGOs printed this map and spread it in Idomeni e: I have been informed that this is what Arabic looks like. A Buttery Pastry fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Mar 14, 2016 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 20:35
|
|
|
OwlFancier posted:How else does the army normally transport human beings? Would it be preferable if the trucks were uncovered so the human beings can get rained on? I don't think it's a complaint, it's just to head off comments like "I dun see no immigrunts on these thar pitchers".
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 20:43
|
|
A Buttery Pastry posted:Why is the map written in Terrorist? Oh by the way, the Roman letters in the lower right corner are supposed to read "Kommando Norbert Blüm", Norbert Blüm being a former German labor and social minister of Germany (CDU) who famously said "Die Renten sind sicher." (the pensions are safe). This is where he currently sleeps  (yes, that's Norbert in his tent in Idomeni)
|
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 21:10
|
|
|
GaussianCopula posted:Oh by the way, the Roman letters in the lower right corner are supposed to read "Kommando Norbert Blüm" Why is it written in Nazi? e: I have been informed that this is what German looks like. Can't say I blame them for trying, anyway, even though the outcome was a given. Just wish people didn't goddamn drown over it. CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 21:46 on Mar 14, 2016 |
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 21:44
|
|
|
GaussianCopula posted:Norbert Blüm being a former German labor and social minister of Germany (CDU) who famously said "Die Renten sind sicher." (the pensions are safe). Looks like his pensions weren't all that they were cracked up to be.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 21:46
|
|
|
A Buttery Pastry posted:Why is the map written in Terrorist? CrazyLoon posted:Why is it written in Nazi? drat it y'all I shouldn't be laughing at this.
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 22:01
|
|
|
Tesseraction posted:drat it y'all I shouldn't be laughing at this. You shouldn't feel guilty, it was a superbly crafted joke, even working with multiple levels of irony: a... "Haha, Germans are Nazis, am I right?!" - always a winner in D&D b. ...calling Buttery Pastry a German because of his (ironic) racism, which is triple ironic, because it's additionally stereotyping one of the currently least xenophobic western countries(Germany) as racist and BP is the most rabid anti-german posters in D&D c. ...the irony in commenting with a Nazi-reference to an item about an 80-year old former german center-right minister, spending a night in the mud of Idomeni to show solidarity and raise awareness Isn't it great to post about politics on a comedy forum?
|
|
#
?
Mar 14, 2016 23:56
|
|
|
goethe42 posted:You shouldn't feel guilty, it was a superbly crafted joke, even working with multiple levels of irony: I like it that you're being sardonic about the irony while the jokes were very funny at an unironic face-value. In other News Nazi-like party AfD is poised to make great gains in the federal elections! Wow! Such irony!
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 00:17
|
|
|
goethe42 posted:b. ...calling Buttery Pastry a German because of his (ironic) racism, which is triple ironic, because it's additionally stereotyping one of the currently least xenophobic western countries(Germany) as racist and BP is the most rabid anti-german posters in D&D
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 00:40
|
|
|
goethe42 posted:b. ...calling Buttery Pastry a German because of his (ironic) racism You know, the sad thing is you got offended for the wrong reason. BP was joking that the Arabic script on the map was 'Terrorist' (a stereotype typical of racists who think terrorism is inherent to Arabic speakers), there is also a small phrase in German on the same map, and CrazyLoon joked that it was 'Nazi' (a stereotype typical of racists who think that Naziism is inherent to German speakers). He wasn't calling BP German. That said, ReagaNOMNOMicks posted:In other News Nazi-like party AfD is poised to make great gains in the federal elections! Wow! Such irony! Eh, I'm not particularly worried yet, the BNP got very popular for a while in Britain but the scrutiny of a few electoral gains (at lower legislative levels) led to them going into decline. The sentiment won't go away, though, so that's a worry.
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 00:41
|
|
|
Tesseraction posted:Eh, I'm not particularly worried yet, the BNP got very popular for a while in Britain but the scrutiny of a few electoral gains (at lower legislative levels) led to them going into decline. The sentiment won't go away, though, so that's a worry.
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 00:47
|
|
|
A Buttery Pastry posted:I'm not anti-German. I love Germany so much that I prefer to see sixteen of them Me seventeen! Put all of AfD in the last one and have it be, like, miniscule compared to the others. We'd see right quick how well they get along with nothing but their own pure-aryan friends. And I can't tell who's being ironic here anymore. CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Mar 15, 2016 |
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 00:50
|
|
|
I've enjoyed that joke a fuckload. Posting in a comedy forum is indeed great.
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 01:01
|
|
|
Our official motto is "the internet makes you stupid" and our proudest achievements are the slenderman killings and 9/11 yakety sax. Siriously, why would you come to this dead gay comedy forum and complain about people making jokes? And what's the deal with insomnia, anyway? Like, first your brain is all "nah, I don't need no stinkin' sleep, I'm fine" and then when you need to get up it's all "zzzZzzzzZ, i'm too tired to get up!". What's up with that? Have you ever noticed that?
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 01:43
|
|
|
waitwhatno posted:Our official motto is "the internet makes you stupid" and our proudest achievements are the slenderman killings and 9/11 yakety sax. Siriously, why would you come to this dead gay comedy forum and complain about people making jokes? I tried this insomnia thing once, it didn't work out. Turns out if you don't sleep for a couple months, you die. How was I supposed to know that??
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 02:34
|
|
|
Libluini posted:I tried this insomnia thing once, it didn't work out. Turns out if you don't sleep for a couple months, you die. How was I supposed to know that?? Actually, the average amount of time it takes for not sleeping to kill you is eighteen months. There's known cases of people surviving much longer, too. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 02:53
|
|
|
Somebody set up us the bomb in Berlin. We get signal: The Guardian
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 13:06
|
|
|
ReagaNOMNOMicks posted:Somebody set up us the bomb in Berlin.
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 13:22
|
|
|
goethe42 posted:You shouldn't feel guilty, it was a superbly crafted joke, even working with multiple levels of irony: You like Germans? Because I LOVE Germans. Man, they, they're my people. I mean I love ALL Germans. That's, y'know, if if if I could take ALL the Germans in the world, and just, you know, buy a farm somewhere and let them all run free, you know, let them do their little freedom thorugh labor thing completely stress free.
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 13:23
|
|
|
We could also just put all Germans into a place called Germany and then force them to not let in foreigners and protect their borders all the while paying France a lot of money to keep their nukes pointed somewhere else.
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 13:27
|
|
|
Riso posted:We could also just put all Germans into a place called Germany and then force them to not let in foreigners and protect their borders all the while paying France a lot of money to keep their nukes pointed somewhere else. That's a great idea, we could then use the reclaimed lands in Austria, Switzerland, Luxembourg and Liechtenstein to host the refugees.
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 13:35
|
|
|
Riso posted:We could also just put all Germans into a place called Germany and then force them to not let in foreigners and protect their borders all the while paying France a lot of money to keep their nukes pointed somewhere else. You left out the part where the second guy asks the Genie to build a 300m tall wall along the border and then the third guy asks him to fill the whole thing with water.
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 13:37
|
|
|
You will find a 10m tall wall is sufficient.
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 13:49
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 28, 2024 23:42 |
|
|
Riso posted:You will find a 10m tall wall is sufficient. Considering physical geography, a 2.962km tall wall migh be necessary for our purposes here. e: because we're not talking about the same thing maybe???
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2016 13:53
|
|