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bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL
Speaking of waivers...

https://twitter.com/TSN1200/status/1455209891149275144

In what seems to be an annual (bi-annual? tri-annual?) event, who's ready for Anton Forsberg's first trip to the waiver wire? And which lucky team will get to claim him for slightly sub-replacement-level goaltending relief for a few months?

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bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL

Shinjobi posted:

The Blackhawks beat the Senators handily in regulation.



The Dallas Stars could not beat the Senators in two attempts. I'm concerned about just how bad the Dallas season is gonna get.

I honestly wouldn't read too much into it. The Sens are a young team and have this weird habit of just playing incredibly passively against star players. They played every team really hard last year, but completely fell apart every time they ran into McDavid. Patrick Kane basically got the same treatment that McDavid did last year, and ended up with a hat trick.

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL
Starting to think that Ottawa might be bad. A real stinker of a team. Powerplay is really fun though.

They need to put Stutzle and Batherson back together. He and Norris are the only guy on the team that can keep up with what Stutzle tries to do on the ice.

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL
8 Sens players now have COVID, including this guy, added today:

https://twitter.com/Capital_Gains65/status/1458817423696609282

Boston, you're up next!

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL
The Sens lost 4 of their 6 starting defencemen to COVID (Mete, Zaitsev, Holden, Josh Brown), and the AHLers they called up to replace them are so much better than the guys they're paying to play in the NHL. The Sens lost tonight, but it was like night-and-day compared to how they looked in the previous few games. Turns out when you replace Zaitsev and Josh Brown with guys who can actually make breakout passes, the team can actually get out of their own zone. Career journeyman Dylan Heatherington makes Zaitsev look like an ECHLer.

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL
Cole Sillinger, the consensus BPA at 10th overall in this year’s draft: 6 points in the NHL so far this year.

The random guy the Sens went way off the board to pick at 10th overall instead:

https://twitter.com/sensprospects/status/1459362797289189376?s=21

2 points in 10 NCAA games. The forward version of Dylan McIlrath, everyone. Not like Ottawa needs more skill in the top 6.

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL
Drake Batherson was ruled out of Ottawa's game last night due to COVID protocol, was a last-minute re-addition to the lineup, got 4 points, and is now out of tonight's game due to COVID protocol.

It all just seems so performative by the league. If COVID is a concern to the league, why have they been letting Ottawa continue to play games with half their roster out ill, and players continuing to test positive the day after games?

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL

Hand Knit posted:

Yeah, I generally find 'goalies are voodoo' more compelling than 'goalie sv% primarily represents the team performance'. Of course, I haven't kept up with with the more recent stuff, but I remember the long look for contextual effects on goaltender performance and the impacts were slight and sparse.

Of course it's conceptually possible that Seattle is consistently, systematically having defensive breakdowns in such a way that let their opponents get high EV chances in ways that the models meant to track high EV don't catch. But, well, that seems like a fairly strong claim.

Wasn't this one of the huge knocks on Erik Karlsson during his prime in Ottawa? That the available public models, at the time, made him look passable-to-good defensively, but that his on-ice defensive results were consistently way worse than what those models suggested?

I'm completely out of the loop on most analytics stuff now (beyond beep boop someone posted a chart), but it seems that the public models 5-6 years ago weren't nearly as good as they are now - for example, when people argued about whether Karlsson was good defensively, the main things they were looking at were shot and scoring chance differentials. And while the models-of-the-day picked up on his skill in evading forechecks and transitioning the puck (leading to good shot/scoring chance differentials), they didn't account for the number of high danger rush chances that he gave up or the primo locations for all the shots-against while he was on the ice. And now that the models are taking these things into account, his past defensive shortcomings would be more accurately reflected today?

Which is to say that hockey analytics really seems to be something that's still growing, and that in 4-5 years it might be possible to point to a clear Hakstol effect, beyond simply saying that goalies are voodoo.

bub spank fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Nov 15, 2021

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL

Starsfan posted:

if I didn't already have enough reasons to dislike Rick Bowness for being a lovely coach who never advanced in his understanding of the game of hockey since the early 90's

https://twitter.com/BenHankinson/status/1461446244589576194

and guess what! Riley Tufte was scratched, and fellow Minnesota product Jake Oettinger was informed he would be the backup instead of starting his first game in his home state!

https://twitter.com/BruceLeVinePuck/status/1461504306750894087

It's the same loving "power move" bullshit that Mike Babcock was pulling on Jason Spezza just to be a dick. gently caress Rick Bowness

What a stupid take. Hockey’s a business, but part of running a business is cultivating an environment where your employees are happy and want to work for you. Snubbing them after they’ve blown a ton of money to get friends/family into a game is a good way to make them not want to play for you.

And on top of that, purely from a hockey perspective, the dude’s gonna be playing his heart out in his first hometown game in front of everyone he knows, and you scratch him for a random plug. Not like the geriatric Stars could use someone to provide them a spark.

e: and even from a “show business” perspective, fans dig seeing a guy succeed in his first hometown game. It makes a fun little storyline in the game, and drives fan engagement.

bub spank fucked around with this message at 07:47 on Nov 19, 2021

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL

Furnaceface posted:

Why did the NHL postpone Ottawa games due to a covid outbreak but is making the Isles play through theirs?

Ottawa had to play through theirs for quite a while. They were only shut down after their 10th player tested positive, 10 days after the outbreak started. Their last 3 games before the shutdown, they played while short 8-10 players. I think the rationale was that the 10th player (Batherson) couldn't be connected to an earlier exposure, so there was a risk it was still spreading in the team.

e: Still amazed that nobody on the Pens got it after this guy tested positive the day after this game:

https://twitter.com/Capital_Gains65/status/1458460485398016006

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL
Ottawa's awful again, but at least their games can be high-scoring and entertaining.

And in bright news, Timmy Stu actually looks good as a center. Team still looks dire without Batherson though.

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL

He’s definitely getting bought out after this year. Can’t see Euge paying 7/8m a year for him. This was entirely foreseeable when the deal was announced too. Like, throwing away a 2nd to get him and see if he can regain his form? Questionable, but I can see the logic. Immediately signing him to a 25m deal before he plays a game for you? What the hell.

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL
I’m also not quite sure why they’re waiving him. He’s clearly Ottawa’s second best goalie, after Gustavsson. Forsberg has been even worse than Murray this year.

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL
Feeling like the Sens are in the Hall/Yakupov/RNH years of a 10-year rebuild, without any of the first overall picks.

Just gotta clear out the entire management/coaching staff. They just put out a powerplay of Tierney-Ennis-Paul-Gambrell-DelZotto, and sadly, that’s likely the best they could do. How on earth does a team that’s trying to “compete” have such awful forward depth? And that’s on top of a defence of Chabot/Zub/4 replacement players collectively getting paid 10 million a year.

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL
https://twitter.com/ian_mendes/status/1465724882109542403

Dorion needs to get fired, but the alternative is Pierre McGuire. I'm not sure whether Ottawa or Vancouver have it worse in terms of management.

bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL

Eric the Mauve posted:

"Yeah they waived me and sent me to the minors but they really handled it well" said no one ever

I mean, when you're waiving a guy who you just signed to a $25m contract, a courtesy call seems appropriate. Especially when he's outplaying one of the other goalies on the main roster.

There's been similar comments from a number of other players who have been dealt or unsigned - Borowiecki, Duclair, DeMelo, and the below re: McKenna:

https://twitter.com/6thSens/status/1465728586342866944

Just seems weird for a GM who values and constantly talks about "character" in drafting/trading, to avoid having difficult conversations with players who are leaving. Dorion also started blatantly avoiding the media as soon as this season started to go downhill, after promising that "the rebuild is over" before the season started. He's making DJ Smith, Tkachuk, and Chabot answer all of the questions about the team's awful performance, when the real problem is roster construction.

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bub spank
Feb 1, 2005

the THRILL

I had forgotten how great these are, but the DOPS suspension video in the linked tweet is art. The deadpan delivery. The completely superfluous “THIS IS NOT A HOCKEY PLAY”. The clear video of Lemieux, looking like a snapping turtle, biting Tkachuk when they first fall down. The explanation about how they can only suspend him for one bite, despite circumstantial evidence of more bites, because only this one was clearly on video.

Tkachuk stood up, holding his bloody right hand and yelling about how Lemieux bit him on it, and that’s not even the bite that Lemieux got suspended for.

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