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It's the rings, stupid (sort of) We're coming up on Pro Football Hall of Fame season, and this year's inductees will be announced in just a couple of weeks. I'll have a separate thread for that soon, but right now I wanted to talk about something that's been on my mind for a while. With the top quarterbacks of the 2000s and 2010s now retiring or close to it, there's been a lot of chatter about their HOF chances, some stronger than others. We have the obvious no-brainers like Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Ben waiting their turn, plus an active phenom like Mahomes who is arguably there already. But I'm more interested in the borderline candidates like Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and (please hold your groans) Eli Manning, all accomplished quarterbacks in their own ways, but don't quite have the slam-dunk resumes. There are a lot of different ways you can analyze a quarterback's HOF chances, but one argument I don't want to hear is "well, the Hall is obviously biased towards QBs." The voters are a bit more stringent about QBs than you might think -- in a 100-year-old league, only 34 quarterbacks are currently enshrined. The criteria must be pretty overwhelming for one to get in, and one of the key factors I've found is the biggest accomplishment in the sport -- lifting a trophy at the end of the season. Ugh, again with the ringz. May as well put Trent Dilfer in! Glad you asked, or demanded, or something. Yes, to get this out of the way -- obviously not every Super Bowl winner is a HOFer. Here are all the SB champions not currently in (not counting active players or future locks like Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Ben/you get the deal): Jim Plunkett (2x) Joe Theismann Jim McMahon Phil Simms Doug Williams * Jeff Hostetler Mark Rypien Trent Dilfer Brad Johnson * - Hostetler filled in for an injured Simms, so he was basically Foles before Foles. Simms still has two rings he can show off on TV. We can argue the merits of an Eli or Russ or Stafford, but I feel pretty confident that Joe Flacco and Nick Foles will not be in the Hall. That leaves nine SB champion quarterbacks out of 56 games (give or take multiple winners) who will not see a gold jacket. That's honestly a pretty low percentage, and it speaks to how hard it really is to get in even if you lift the trophy. So we know that a ring isn't the end-all-be-all, but as we'll see below, it sure doesn't hurt. With that out of the way, let's get to the meat of this post. HALL OF FAME QUARTERBACKS LIST These are all the guys, and their title accolades. The pre-Super Bowl era gets a bit fuzzy with different leagues and two-way players and whatnot, but I'm pretty sure I have everyone included. Players in bold have not won a title, and their case is explained briefly. Sammy Baugh (2x NFL champion) Jimmy Conzelman (2x NFL champion) Paddy Driscoll (1x NFL champion) Otto Graham (3x NFL champion) Sid Luckman (4x NFL champion) Bob Waterfield (2x NFL champion) Arnie Herber (4x NFL champion) Bobby Layne (3x NFL champion) Y.A. Tittle (2 NFL title appearances; still an easy HOF case as a major superstar of the era) Norm Van Brocklin (2x NFL champion) Ace Parker (1 AAFC title appearance; two-sport guy who helped make the AAFC a viable threat for a few years) Bart Starr (5x NFL champion, 2 SB titles, 2 SB appearances) Johnny Unitas (3x NFL champion, 1 SB title, 2 SB appearances) George Blanda (3x AFL champion, 1 SB appearance) * Sonny Jurgensen (1x NFL champion) Joe Namath (1x AFL champion, 1 SB title, 1 SB appearance) Roger Staubach (2 SB titles, 4 SB appearances) Fran Tarkenton (3 SB appearances; famous for his scrambling but also put up huge passing stats for the time, a true legend in every way) Len Dawson (3x AFL champion, 1 SB title, 2 SB appearances) Terry Bradshaw (4 SB titles, 4 SB appearances) Bob Griese (2 SB titles, 3 SB appearances) Dan Fouts (one of the first names you think of when naming best players to never play in a Super Bowl. Face of the Air Coryell, ground-breaking stats, one of the forerunners of the 80s passing revolution) Jim Kelly (4 SB appearances; another no-brainer case) John Elway (2 SB titles, 5 SB appearances) Joe Montana (4 SB titles, 4 SB appearances) Benny Friedman (I know nothing about him, unfortunately; appears to be an early historical case, inducted decades after his death) Dan Marino (1 SB appearance; we all know his deal, retired holding almost every passing record) ** Steve Young (1 SB title, 2 SB appearances) Troy Aikman (3 SB titles, 3 SB appearances) Warren Moon (also put up massive stats, and of course an important historical figure as a trailblazing Black QB) Brett Favre (1 SB title, 2 SB appearances) Ken Stabler (1 SB title, 1 SB appearance) Kurt Warner (1 SB title, 3 SB appearances) Peyton Manning (2 SB titles, 3 SB appearances) * - Washington made the SB in 1972 while Jurgensen was splitting time with Billy Kilmer; he was injured and didn't play in the game ** -- Young only has two SB appearances on a pure technicality; as Montana's backup, he saw some mop-up duty in one of their blowout wins ------------------------ So, out of 34 Hall of Fame quarterbacks, only eight have never won a title, and pretty much all of them have a strong, unassailable resume that didn't need a ring to put them over the top. So where does that leave the modern-day players? ACTIVE PLAYERS Everyone here is either a lock or at least has a decent argument. Once again, non-title winners in bold. Tom Brady (7 SB titles, 10 SB appearances) Aaron Rodgers (1 SB title, 1 SB appearance) Patrick Mahomes (1 SB title, 2 SB appearances) Russell Wilson (1 SB title, 2 SB appearances) Matthew Stafford (1 SB title, 1 SB appearance) Matt Ryan (1 SB appearance; main arguments are longevity and the MVP year) RECENTLY RETIRED PLAYERS Same verse as the first. Drew Brees (1 SB title, 1 SB appearance) Ben Roethlisberger (2 SB titles, 2 SB appearances) Philip Rivers (the Fouts comparisons are almost too eerie. Great player, but always in the shadow of his AFC peers) Eli Manning (2 SB titles, 2 SB appearances) Cam Newton (1 SB appearance; maybe fell off too fast to have a real case, but his peak years were as good as anyone) Andrew Luck (not a serious candidate with the early retirement, but I'm putting him here as a reminder that today's great players shouldn't be taken for granted. Not everyone gets to enjoy 15+ years of peak form, especially if they play a brutally physical style. This is a Josh Allen subtweet.) So what does this all mean? Rings aren't everything, but they mean a hell of a lot. If you don't have one, you gotta bring something special to the table. Eli will be a divisive candidate because he surrounded those two SB runs with a lot of middling play, but it's hard to tell the story of the modern NFL without him. Rivers, Ryan, and Cam will have uphill battles because they just didn't have the playoff success to match their statistical profiles. Stafford probably needs a big comeback if he wants to prove that his SB win wasn't just a mercenary run on a loaded team. Russ has the ring, but uh ... *gestures at all of Broncos Country right now* Do any of those players have the overwhelming resume that Tarkenton/Fouts/Kelly/Marino had in previous generations? Has the modern-day passing explosion created a paradox where great QBs just don't feel as special as they once did? Is it time to adjust the bar so the Ryans and Rivers of the world get their due? Is this all Brady's fault because he hogged the loving trophies for two decades so nobody else can get some shine? Actually, yeah, it's probably the last one. gently caress you Tom, you ruined QB discourse for an entire generation. Put Rivers in the Hall. Benne fucked around with this message at 10:24 on Jan 24, 2023 |
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Jan 24, 2023 09:46
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| # ? Apr 29, 2024 17:35 |
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i consider eli to be the first and only quarterback in line as a hall of fame lock who isn't a first ballot lock. since eli will be eligible one year before drew brees, if he doesn't get in on the first ballot then brees could push him back another year. then if brady had stayed retired eli could have been pushed back another year, and aaron rodgers could have potentially pushed him back even more if rodgers surprisingly retires at the end of this season. but there is enough empty space now either way that there won't be any problem. what a guy
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Jan 24, 2023 11:20
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Nick Foles and Eli deserve their own wing in the Hall.
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Jan 24, 2023 11:21
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Benne posted:Y.A. Tittle (2 NFL title appearances; still an easy HOF case as a major superstar of the era) Minor correction here, but he had 3 consecutive title appearances with the Giants in the early 60s. It’s also worth noting he what were then the single season records for touchdown passes (33 and 36) that stood until Marino showed up. Some of the other guys without titles that got in also had what were, for their eras, big numbers, but things changed heavily after the passing rules got updated in 1978, and then more with rules changes/enforcement in the 00s and 10s.
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Jan 24, 2023 12:45
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syzpid posted:Nick Foles and Eli deserve their own wing in the Hall. The same wing with Jim Plunkett
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Jan 24, 2023 12:48
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Eli gets points for his iron man record too. He's a borderline case but I think he deserves it.
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Jan 25, 2023 00:09
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Cavauro posted:i consider eli to be the first and only quarterback in line as a hall of fame lock who isn't a first ballot lock. since eli will be eligible one year before drew brees, if he doesn't get in on the first ballot then brees could push him back another year. then if brady had stayed retired eli could have been pushed back another year, and aaron rodgers could have potentially pushed him back even more if rodgers surprisingly retires at the end of this season. but there is enough empty space now either way that there won't be any problem. what a guy Do you think Peyton will constantly needle Eli if he isn't a first ballot choice? "Hey Eli, how many ballots did it take you to get into the hall? It was pretty cool how I got in as a first ballot isn't it?"
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Jan 25, 2023 00:27
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yeah'll
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Jan 25, 2023 00:28
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seiferguy posted:Eli gets points for his iron man record too. He's a borderline case but I think he deserves it. Eli didn't just win two Lombardis though, he beat Tom Brady in the big dance twice.
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Jan 25, 2023 15:42
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the concept of a hall of fame is stupid but eli definitely belongs in it
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Jan 25, 2023 15:45
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Eli didn't just win two Lombardis though, he beat Tom Brady in the big dance twice. Yeah, I think this is it. Eli gets in under the rubric of 'you can't tell the story of football without X', because you can't really tell the story of football without talking about how he and the Giants clowned their way past the Patriots juggernaut twice. By the same token, though, Philip Rivers shouldn't get in despite being a demonstrably better QB because you can easily tell the story without mentioning a guy who was only the fourth or fifth best at his position at his peak and never really contributed much to the overall history of the sport. Also, gently caress Ben Roethlisberger, who'll get in because RINGS and STEELERS but was mostly just a competent-to-good QB on a bunch of stacked teams and is a garbage human being into the bargain. HOFs are dumb and weird.
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Jan 25, 2023 16:03
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The "can't tell the story of football without them" rubric is kind of dumb though. You can't tell the story of football without Randall Cunningham. You can't tell the story of football without Michael Vick. You can't tell the story of football without Collin Kaepernick. You can't tell the story of football without Ray Rice. Is anyone beating the door down to get those guys in?
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Jan 25, 2023 16:22
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vick and cunningham should absolutely be in the hall
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Jan 25, 2023 16:24
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John McClane posted:vick and cunningham should absolutely be in the hall
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Jan 25, 2023 16:32
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John McClane posted:the concept of a hall of fame is stupid but eli definitely belongs in it i think you meant to say "so" or "thus" and not "but Eli"
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Jan 25, 2023 16:34
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John McClane posted:vick and cunningham should absolutely be in the hall Yeah, Cunningham especially. Like, he changed the game in ways that wouldn't be apparent for thirty years. General Dog posted:You can't tell the story of football without Collin Kaepernick. I mean, yeah, I hope we get to a point where he can make the HOF for taking a stand against police brutality even in the face of getting blackballed by the league and losing his playing career. That would be really good.
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Jan 25, 2023 17:04
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John McClane posted:vick and cunningham should absolutely be in the hall 
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Jan 25, 2023 18:41
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Eli should get in on the metric of the first full season of football I watched, he was the Super Bowl winning QB and he made a bunch of cool passes in those playoffs.
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Jan 26, 2023 04:12
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Sticking my head in from the other sport zone to say that imo a hall of fame is not a hall of good. If you just want a big list of who won the most things and did the most passes you can do that on a spreadsheet American sports having a big building dedicated to remembering some guys is something I'm genuinely envious of because there's not really anything on a similar scale in football (round)
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Jan 26, 2023 10:54
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there should be an exhibit in mlb hall of fame on disco demolition night
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Jan 26, 2023 11:47
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Based on the OPs list of active and high chance players I think Brady, Brees and Rodgers are locks. All 3 had seasons as the top QB in the league and hold or have held big passing records at some point. Roethlisberger I think is a longshot despite 2 Super Bowl wins. He never got a MVP award, first or second team all-pro. Philip Rivers will not make the HOF. Matt Ryan I think has a better shot than either of the above. He has a MVP award, a first team all-pro and is in the top 10 in a lot of counting stats. Eli Manning is in the same boat as Roethlisberger, 2 Super Bowls wins, no season MVP award or all-pro selections. Big longshot. Cam Newton is a longshot as well but I think a better chance than Manning or Roethlisberger. Got the MVP and all-pro selection and was far better at his peak than Matt Ryan but doesn't have the longevity. Mahomes will absolutely in the HOF if he turns out 5 more seasons at his current rate of production. Stafford and Wilson are both longshots and really depends how the last couple years of their careers play out. Based on this year both are out. They both are really good QBs, but no MVPs or all-pro selections.
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Jan 26, 2023 16:08
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Big Ben and Eli are absolutely going to make it and there's no way Cam Newton of all people has a better chance than them
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Jan 26, 2023 16:15
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Mystic Stylez posted:Big Ben and Eli are absolutely going to make it and there's no way Cam Newton of all people has a better chance than them Can you name a year that Ben or Eli were the best quarterbacks in the league? Did they break any season or career records at anytime? Both are very good quarterbacks but have no lasting individual achievements in my view.
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Jan 26, 2023 16:18
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Mystic Stylez posted:Big Ben and Eli are absolutely going to make it and there's no way Cam Newton of all people has a better chance than them Yeah, I was gonna say the same thing. One needs to remembers the HoF voters is largely older sportswriters and the selection committee absolutely favors (And some of them have openly admitted as much) things like Ringz and certain teams. Eli is a lock, maybe not first ballot, for two memorable Super Bowl wins and Super Bowl MVPs over Brady. Ben played for the Steelers forever and won a couple of rings, even if his play in the first Super Bowl was awful (And it was), that was mostly forgotten by the time of his second Super Bowl.
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Jan 26, 2023 16:20
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DariusLikewise posted:Can you name a year that Ben or Eli were the best quarterbacks in the league? Did they break any season or career records at anytime? Both are very good quarterbacks but have no lasting individual achievements in my view. How is beating Tom Brady in two Super Bowls not a lasting individual achievement for Eli?
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Jan 26, 2023 16:29
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Mike Tanier wrote about Eli's case a couple years ago and he makes some good points about the "Ringz" argument:quote:Eli Manning Hall of Fame arguments may be the most superficial, ill-informed, and dismissive conversations on the Internet, and that's saying something. Most of the discourse boils down to a speaker/blogger/poster assuring us that while smart people know Manning is not Hall of Fame-worthy, those stupid voters can't wait to enshrine him on the first ballot because they are obsessed with RINGZ, or are biased toward big-market players or quarterbacks, or are simply dazzled by famous names, or for some other arbitrary/silly criteria. quote:There are lots and lots of quarterbacks who were both successful and incredibly famous at their peaks who will not receive serious consideration: Simms, Joe Theismann, Randall Cunningham, Donovan McNabb, Drew Bledsoe, Roman Gabriel, Boomer Esiason, Jim McMahon, John Hadl, Jim Hart, and so forth. Destined to join them are Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and others of our era. Many of these quarterbacks became announcers or remained in the public eye in other ways after retirement. That added fame did nothing for their candidacies. Charlie Conerly quarterbacked the Giants for a decade, led them to a championship, became the literal Marlboro Man and married a freakin' sportswriter but never got past the finalist stage. The famous, well-connected, New York quarterback with ringz thing isn't a thing, folks. And also that Eli's "case" might secretly really be a Tom Coughlin case: quote:That leaves the story of the NFL, which is the bin Manning's accomplishments really fall into. The only 2007-2011 Giants enshrinee right now is Strahan, who retired after Super Bowl XLII. It feels as though a team that won two Super Bowls in five years should have more than half a Hall of Famer. I think eventually he will get in, but it's not as cut-and-dry as we typically make it out to be.
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Jan 26, 2023 17:59
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DariusLikewise posted:Can you name a year that Ben or Eli were the best quarterbacks in the league? Did they break any season or career records at anytime? Both are very good quarterbacks but have no lasting individual achievements in my view. Both finished their careers top 10 in passing yards and TDs (they may have been bumped out by now, but at the time) Eli had the Iron Man streak and held the record for 4th quarter TDs in 2011 Ben got to 3 superbowls and probably got some smaller records that I can't remember Cam Newton had one MVP year that notably ended with him failing miserably, and was pretty good for a few other years, followed by lots of injury ridden seasons, he has much less of a case. Longevity matters more than you are giving it credit for Febreeze fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Jan 26, 2023 |
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Jan 26, 2023 19:40
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Benne posted:Mike Tanier wrote about Eli's case a couple years ago and he makes some good points about the "Ringz" argument: he had me until he brought up coughlin
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Jan 26, 2023 22:30
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Rivers is gonna get in and half the people are gonna be mad
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Jan 27, 2023 00:05
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a neat cape posted:Rivers is gonna get in and half the people are gonna be mad which one of his kids are you talking about???
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Jan 27, 2023 02:26
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Black Lighter posted:Yeah, Cunningham especially. Like, he changed the game in ways that wouldn't be apparent for thirty years.
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Jan 27, 2023 03:15
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Febreeze posted:Both finished their careers top 10 in passing yards and TDs (they may have been bumped out by now, but at the time) Cam Newton didn't fail miserably, he was failed miserably - there's a notable difference. That being said Cam is not a hall of fame QB. Probably deserves a place in the Panthers ring of honour or whatever bullshit because he carried the franchise for as long as his body would hold out but I don't think you could put him in and even as a dyed in the wool cam and panthers fan I wouldn't cast my vote as a yes if I was on the committee. I'm bored so: Ben should be in Eli should be in Rivers shouldn't be in If I was trying to devise some kind of simple criteria for how I would vote (not saying that this is what they do, or should do, it's just how I look at it). 1. Output comparative to the era. Passing numbers for the top guys are only going to get bigger and more insane and it's not exactly fair to say someone like Eli never threw for 50TDs but Mahomes did in his first year starting. While Eli was certainly in a more passing friendly era than the previous generation it's not a fair comparison - you have to look at what guys were doing relative to when they're playing their prime years. Reason being - Kirk Cousins when he retires will probably be within reach of, if not above John Elway on every career passing metric (except ringzzz), but he's not a hall of famer and shouldn't be. Barring some insane performance where he wins back to back rings in the next two years. Conversely its also unfair to say that, (to stick with the example) Elway shouldn't or wouldn't get a vote because he never passed for more than 28 touchdowns in a year. The relativity is important and Ben and Eli, while never in line for an MVP award - were good enough to be among the top at their position for their entire careers and made multiple pro bowls and have their place on the all time stat boards. I think if a guy has the output it can get him in alone but they need to be an absolute outlier. How you define that though is up to you. This is I guess where you get the argument for Frank Gore. 2. Dominance - I think this sort of flows from the above but I think a player needs to be either insanely dominant for a short period, or dominant for a long time, or to be that definite lock - both. This is where you get into the Michael Vick vs someone like Big Ben. Big Ben was never in the MVP conversation however, he almost always had his team in the playoffs in his prime and you wouldn't be safe betting against him no matter the opponent (unless its pavement without a helmet). Brees also fits in this one. Had numbers for a long, long time and every time he suited up his team was going to be in the fight. Even if his playoff record outside of one year isn't stellar. This is kind of the - is this guy an equalizer? Was he able to elevate the guys around him by their performance? I also think when considering dominance of a player you've got to do the deep dives into the games where they showed out, the rosters they played with, the coaches they had and their division etc at the time. This is where you get an argument against Frank Gore - he was always reliable but was he ever a guy you'd consider to be a jewel in the crown of an offense, or someone that would just take over games like Ladanian. 3. Moments /Story . Do they have something that adds to that legacy? In the cases where the above two aren't outright convincing you 100% need the third. Though I would be clear here, this is not necessarily the only thing in their history that should be the deciding factor. Nick Foles is a good example. His playoff run is something from an MOW, was amazing to see, something we'll all always remember and it's something I'd watch an ESPN 30 for 30 on, but it doesn't make you a hall of famer. In the cases of the three above. Ben has multiple seasons where he's around the top of the league in terms of numbers, never quite reached the ceilings of the Brady's, Rodgers and P Manning's of the world but his output for almost the entirety of his career was high enough that with the two playoff runs resulting in championships you get the complete package, I feel the same for Eli. Had some higher highs and lower lows statistically than his contemporaries but was always in that conversation and just so often had those moments in big games where it puts him over the top. With Rivers I feel like he's in that same conversation in terms of output comparative to his era, being a very good quarterback for a very long period of time but never having a game or moment or performance on a big stage that makes him undeniable. That being said if Rivers eventually gets in, I wouldn't consider it some kind of crime against football, he's got the numbers, he just doesn't have my vote. The idea of having a great big hall for the story of the NFL and having guys like Kaepernick in there is a big no. Standing up for what you believe in is fantastic and he should receive the attention he gets for making efforts as a player to bring to light a cause he cared for. That doesn't make you a hall of fame player. Might make you a hall of fame person, but not a hall of fame player. I think the arguments of "HE HAS THE RINGS" and "HE HAS THE NUMBERS" can be correct and wrong at the same time. I don't know how to describe how I weight those things, or how anyone would in terms of importance and it would vary from person to person but I guess you could say something like a guy has 10 possible points in each category and needs to hit 25 out of 30 to get in. Eli would have an 8 for numbers, a 7 for his dominance but a 10 for moments. Ben has 8, 8, 9. Rivers is more like 10, 7, 4. Sure he has better counting stats but he was never the guy, at any point in his career and he played in one AFC Title game and he threw 2 picks. A guy like Kaepernick might get a bonus point here for his dedication to his cause, but without anywhere near the production in the other three criteria he wouldn't be in. As a bit of an aside, I also think this is where pro bowling voting needs to be changed a little bit, time and again we see guys go because of their name, not their performance and guys who are performing better are overlooked for whatever reason. We see this every single year where a player who's been playing pretty poo poo, but has a name and is on a team that's winning will get the nod over guys. This is always summarily dismissed in threads where we talk about the probowl with the whole "pro bowl's dumb" "who cares?" "they should just play dodgeball anyway" "I miss sprint races" over and over and then when the hall of fame discussion starts everyone starts saying stuff like "well he only made 3 pro bowls". In short. Put in Kuechly when he's eligible and put Steve Smith in right the gently caress now.
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Jan 27, 2023 08:00
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all them '04 boys deserve it to me. throw in all the last great cubes of the purely 16 game era. throw in the last great san diego charger. i don't give a fug if there's too many. the busts are all bunched up and look like poo poo as it is. that's not what's important. what's important is
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Jan 27, 2023 12:38
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