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*******FINAL SEASON UPDATES******** BACK FOR 2024 Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins Robert Saleh, New York Jets John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs Sean Payton, Denver Broncos Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles Brian Daboll, New York Giants Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers Dan Campvell, Detroit Lions Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals  Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders (interim coach: Antonio Pierce) Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers (interim coach: Chris Tabor) Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers (interim coach: Giff Smith) Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks Bill Belichick, New England Patriots NEW COACHING HIRES New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo (Patriots LBs coach) Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce Tennessee Titans: Brian Callahan (Bengals OC) Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh (Michigan) Carolina Panthers: Dave Canales (Bucs OC) Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (Rams DC) Seattle Seahawks: Mike Macdonald (Ravens DC) Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (Cowboys DC) ***********************  Hard to believe I’ve been doing this thread for a decade now. At some point I’ll dig through archives just to link the old ones for historical purposes. WELCOME BACK to the TFF Hot Seat Watch, here for another fun season of speculating about grown men’s job statuses. 2022 was actually a pretty quiet year for the coaching carousel, only five jobs opened up when most years there’s at least six or seven. But it looks like we’ll have a good crop this year, and I’ll be keeping track every step of the way (or more like once or twice a month, I stopped doing weekly updates a long time ago). Let’s get right into it. As usual, I don’t have any major-hot candidates to start off Week 1,we’re just feeling out the vibes here until the season gets a chance to develop. COOL Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins Robert Saleh, New York Jets Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles Brian Daboll, New York Giants Mike LaFleur, Green Bay Packers Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams Couple guys I’m keeping an eye on here. Saleh is basically in playoffs-or-bust territory, and boy could they bust hard if Rodgers doesn’t live up to the hype. I’d put McDaniels in Mild if Mark Davis wasn’t still paying like $40 million to a guy he fired two years ago. Eberflus didn’t show much in year 1, and if the Bears (and specifically Justin Fields) don’t make a leap I’d question what he’s actually doing there. The Falcons are probably overhyped but it’s time for Smith to make a real push in his third season. And the Saints are just whatever at this point. FIRST-YEAR COACHES Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans Sean Payton, Denver Broncos Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals Last year we got not one, but two one-and-done coaches, with Hackett Peter Principling his way out of Denver and the Texans doing what the Texans do. Will Houston make it three in a row? That’d be hilarious but Ryans seems like a real prospect and was in-demand. Payton is back to save Russ’ career, Reich gets a fresh start with a young QB, and Steichen will try to keep Irsay locked out of his office while he develops Anthony Richardson. The big buzzy name is Gannon, a widely panned hire on a team that’s ready to tear it down to the studs. Will he be the fall guy in their quest for Caleb? I guess we can only wait. MILD Bill Belichick, New England Patriots – Starting off with the non-controversial pick, obviously. It’s now been four years since Brady, five years since their last playoff win, and the Pats don’t seem any closer to finding a real identity. The Matt Patricia experiment was a disaster that would’ve gotten almost any other coach fired. Now it’s up to Bill O’Brien to get Mac Jones back on track and get this team headed … somewhere. Would Robert Kraft be so bold as to fire the most accomplished coach in history? I’ll say no, but Belichick is clearly getting close to the finish line. Now 71 years old and only 21 wins away from breaking Don Shula’s record, that seems about as good an endpoint as any to ride off into the sunset. But going 8-9 again simply won’t be good enough for a franchise that’s gotten very used to winning in the 21st Century. Another mediocre season won’t make the angst go away. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns – Three years ago Stefanski was beating the Steelers in the Wild Card round and was the toast of Cleveland. Now he’s hoping that the nasty quarterback can remember how to play football again. Die a hero, live long enough yadda yadda. I think we all know the score here – if Watson doesn't bounce back then a lot of heads are rolling for that contract. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers – It’s easy to bring up 27-0. Almost too easy, in fact. So instead I’ll bring up another number: Zero, their number of playoff wins in three years with Justin Herbert. Only the Chargers could have a gifted QB in the middle of his prime and still feel like a disappointment. Really living up to the legacies of Fouts and Rivers. Anyway, Staley fired Joe Lombardi to save some face and brought in Kellen Moore from the Cowboys, so at least the offense should be more creative. But how high is this team’s ceiling if they’re always going to have “just” the second-best quarterback in their division? Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys – It wouldn’t be a hot seat thread without the Cowboys coach on it. I wrote about Jason Garrett for what felt like 30 years before they finally got rid of him. But yeah, another maddening playoff loss for a team that should be way better than Divisional Round fodder. Fat Mike is now calling the plays with Moore gone, so this has some real comedic potential. An 80-year-old Jerry Jones trying to chase one more ring? That should be hilarious to watch. Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders – Respected coach but with underwhelming results and new ownership coming in? No way Rivera can relate, not at all. He’s now hitching his wagon to Sam Howell for … some reason. It’s a big risk, but they tried to play it safe with Carson Wentz last year, so maybe a big risk is what this team needs. Either Howell shocks us all or Rivera is looking for work by December. I don’t think there is any in-between. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I’m glad that Bowles got a second chance at HC, a shamefully rare trend for black coaches in the NFL. I’m also glad he got the time to remind us that, oh yeah, he’s still a pretty bad head coach! Weirdly enough it was Byron Leftwich who took the fall, a once-hot coaching prospect now completely out of work. I’m sure there’s nothing to that at all. Oh, and Mike Evans wants out and they’re starting Baker Mayfield on purpose. Things are going great! Benne fucked around with this message at 22:11 on Feb 3, 2024 |
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Sep 5, 2023 00:42
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Yay, the return of one of my favorite threads in SA. Now that you mentioned it, it's kinda wild that Rivera is in the exact same situation he was in a few years ago. How many times has a HC had to deal with new ownership coming in, maybe once in a long career if they're lucky? Rivera's had to deal with it twice within a decade
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Sep 5, 2023 00:56
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Belichick should retire if the Pats don't make a wildcard. His drafting and free agency work has been a disaster the last half decade. He's about to reach the tipping point where his coaching acumen no longer makes up for his poor GM work.
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Sep 5, 2023 01:24
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You sure Arthur Smith is cool? I'd have to imagine he's at least mild for Atlanta's lack of progress now and could be spicy if the revamped defense falls on its rear end. Last year's offense was brutal to watch.
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Sep 5, 2023 01:31
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I'd put Saleh in mild. But I guess it depends on how you want to look at it. If Saleh and Belichick both go 8-9, Saleh is way more likely to be fired, but Saleh's team also appears to be way less likely to go 8-9 in the first place.
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Sep 5, 2023 01:41
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Gannon might be one and done, but the Cards immediately firing a guy that ate a tampering charge for is a bad look There is a 100% chance Riverboat Ron gets fired, even if he makes the playoffs
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Sep 5, 2023 01:44
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I think Saleh has the ultimate "get out of jail" free card . If Rogers gets hurt he's safe. If he sucks or even doesn't play top 5 QB, Saleh can just shrug his shoulders and say, "well its Rogers fault."
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Sep 5, 2023 01:48
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Yeah this has to be make or break on Saleh & Co. Gonna lol when Stefanski finally gets fired and finally brings an end to the Haslem Analytics era. Watson will get to pick his coach because there's no other option than to cater to him for 4 more years. Keep being a disaster browns!
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Sep 5, 2023 01:49
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Feels weird to have Staley on the hot seat when he's had two winning seasons and won more games last year than the year prior (He's only had Herbert for two years, not three), but here we are. If he gets axed, Kellen Moore is a shoo in for HC
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Sep 5, 2023 01:57
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Saleh's seat is definitely cold, but has a nuke strapped to it. Honestly, even if Rodgers shits the bed, I think he'll only get fired after the end of the season. It's definitely a 'we'll see' situation. Smith I think is getting a pass mostly because they managed to successfully blame Marcus Mariota for last year's collapse and even then they were really goddamn close to the playoffs in a dogshit division. Brandon Staley is super unlikely to be fired mid-season, but I think the expectations are pretty obvious for him and his coaches to clean up the braindead decisions from last year and get the goddamn offense moving more consistently. 27-0 cannot happen again in any form, straight-up, and his seat will cool off completely if they get into the playoffs and win at least one game convincingly there versus a real contender. I'm just not convinced Bellichick is in any real danger. He's past his prime and clearly missing his legendary top flight QB, but I just don't see him getting fired. Quietly retired at the end of his current contract, absolutely. But they won't fire him and at this point I just don't see him coaching another team. Worst case, he gets to break one last record and that's it probably two years. He gets to retire with dignity (despite all the loving cheating), and NE gets to spend quality time getting their poo poo pushed in for those 20 years of darkness and suffering they inflicted on the rest of their division. Kevin Stefanski has definitely run out of scapegoats and he's been strapped to Watson whether that's who he wanted or not. If they fall apart this season, Stefanski is gone and I see a lot of coaches and players either getting kicked or looking for escape routes. So for Cleveland, it's definitely a football season ahead for them. To me, the real question for me is whether there's anyone who's gonna get fired midseason. Right now the only one I can see getting fired midseason is Rivera, but that's a big question mark since they have new ownership and no one knows what they think about their own situation this year. Maybe Gannon because lol Arizona trying to be competitive with a lanky dork coach trying and failing to exude chad energy like Dan Campbell. But those fuckers are tanking, so really low odds unless he straight up somehow gets his team to forefit a game, which I give a non-zero chance to this season.
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Sep 5, 2023 02:26
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aperion posted:
I agree with this
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Sep 5, 2023 02:27
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a neat cape posted:I agree with this Yeah, it's really not much of a conversation about Staley at this point. Either he gets that far or he's done, not much gray area left for him. TBH I wanted him fired after 27-0, even if they pulled out a last second miracle and won. It was just utter incompetence to blow a lead that big and I'm still convinced that Staley is a fraud until proven otherwise this season.
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Sep 5, 2023 02:39
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Belichick should retire if the Pats don't make a wildcard. His drafting and free agency work has been a disaster the last half decade. He's about to reach the tipping point where his coaching acumen no longer makes up for his poor GM work. Bill isn’t gonna stop coaching until he breaks Shula’s record or drops dead.
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Sep 5, 2023 02:39
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fartknocker posted:Bill isn’t gonna stop coaching until he breaks Shula’s record or drops dead. I mean that's only like 30 more wins
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Sep 5, 2023 02:41
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a neat cape posted:I mean that's only like 30 more wins Sure but he's 71 and his current team is looking pretty mediocre.
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Sep 5, 2023 02:46
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After both the Pats and Browns miss the playoffs this year the Browns trade yet more future picks away for Belichick. They continue to be mediocre.
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Sep 5, 2023 02:46
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I think Saleh is pretty safe unless Rodgers just SUCKS, like final year Peyton level cooked. The Jets have some great young players but they aren’t as insanely stacked as that Broncos team that dragged Peyton’s corpse to a Lombardi. Then Woody gets mad enough to fire Joe Douglas and Saleh gets swept out by a new GM. None of that strikes me as particularly likely, though it would bring great mirth to TFF. Other comedy option, Rodgers stages a coup and gets Hackett or some other old buddy installed as HC. Team immediately gets worse. Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Gannon might be one and done, but the Cards immediately firing a guy that ate a tampering charge for is a bad look I hear you but bad looks are the Cards’ thing. Like if someone says “wow that’s a bad look” there’s a 50% chance they’re talking about Arizona. With another 49% it’s the Browns now that Snyder isn’t around to dominate the contest.
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Sep 5, 2023 02:52
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Just fire McCarthy now imo. We all know how this ends.
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Sep 5, 2023 02:55
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fsif posted:Sure but he's 71 and his current team is looking pretty mediocre. Yeah, and they're in a tough division this year. I don't think it's likely, but it's not impossible the Pats finish with six or less wins at the end of the season and you have to have a conversation about moving on. YOLOsubmarine posted:After both the Pats and Browns miss the playoffs this year the Browns trade yet more future picks away for Belichick. The funniest outcome
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Sep 5, 2023 02:55
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a neat cape posted:I mean that's only like 30 more wins 21, so almost certainly 3 years unless the Pats completely fall apart (because there’s no way they’re averaging 10.5 wins over the next two seasons). I actually think that’s probably going to end up the measuring stick for him, if it looks like he’s gonna make it in 3 years Kraft will probably let him go with a succession plan to end after the 2025 season but if they come out and win 4 games this year I think he’ll retire.
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Sep 5, 2023 02:58
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fartknocker posted:Bill isn’t gonna stop coaching until he breaks Shula’s record or drops dead. He'd just claw his way out of his grave, shamble back to Gillette stadium, rip the headset from whatever idiot thought it wouldn't be Bill Belichick coaching the Patriots for the rest of eternity, and get back to work, muttering about linemen butts and blocking the entire time if he ever did drop dead.
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Sep 5, 2023 03:07
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It would be extremely funny if McDaniels never gets to be Bill's successor because he got impatient and went on to poo poo the bed in Vegas
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Sep 5, 2023 03:14
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The most persistent rumor I’ve heard is Jerod Mayo which seems like a hell of a career leap for him but it was a talking point over the offseason. It’s mostly dot connecting since it’s not like any info ever comes out of Foxboro
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Sep 5, 2023 03:26
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Belichick should retire if the Pats don't make a wildcard. His drafting and free agency work has been a disaster the last half decade. He's about to reach the tipping point where his coaching acumen no longer makes up for his poor GM work. I know he’s chasing Shulas record but does he really want to muddle through some 9-8 seasons to get there? I don’t see any path to greatness or contention with the current team but maybe having an actual OC will make the Pats respectable again At the least Kraft should take away his GM and staffing powers - which would make him resign I guess ETA: DC Murderverse has the right idea. If the Pats are still competing for wild card spots he’ll get to stay but if they start 2-7 or something… Isentropy fucked around with this message at 03:45 on Sep 5, 2023 |
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Sep 5, 2023 03:43
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Docjowles posted:I think Saleh is pretty safe unless Rodgers just SUCKS, like final year Peyton level cooked. Wouldn't that be a point in favor of keeping Saleh? You can't really blame him for a QB being taken out behind the shed by Father Time.
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Sep 5, 2023 04:05
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SKULL.GIF posted:Wouldn't that be a point in favor of keeping Saleh? You can't really blame him for a QB being taken out behind the shed by Father Time. He’s currently got an 11-23 all time record. If they have another mediocre to bad season what’s the argument for keeping him? Yea, maybe he got dealt a bad hand with QBs but so does most every other coach that gets fired because they can’t put together a single good season in three years.
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Sep 5, 2023 04:28
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SKULL.GIF posted:Wouldn't that be a point in favor of keeping Saleh? You can't really blame him for a QB being taken out behind the shed by Father Time. That’s why I said it would come via firing Douglas for trading a shitload of resources for a dead QB. A new GM is going to want His Guy coaching. Also if the Rodgers trade ends up being a Russ level debacle Jets fans are going to want to see heads roll I imagine. Everyone in the building will have the stink on them (although somehow Denver’s GM has survived this  It seems very hard to lose your GM job unless you manage to do something as dumb as trade away AJ Brown)Again I don’t think this is super likely, they will probably be good Docjowles fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Sep 5, 2023 |
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Sep 5, 2023 05:08
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I’m rooting for chaos
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Sep 5, 2023 05:36
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Saleh is absolutely gone if the Jets miss the playoffs this year outside of like being 8-4 and Rodgers gets injured or something and they lose out. Any other case where they miss the playoffs means Rodgers is sucky or really broken, and at that point the Jets have no resources or money to go get another QB anyway, so leaving is just a mercy at that point. Also, Belichick isn't getting fired c'mon. He might retire simply because there's never been a NFL coach who started a season over age 72 ever, but he ain't getting forced out.
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Sep 5, 2023 05:42
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Kalli posted:Saleh is absolutely gone if the Jets miss the playoffs this year outside of like being 8-4 and Rodgers gets injured or something and they lose out. Any other case where they miss the playoffs means Rodgers is sucky or really broken, and at that point the Jets have no resources or money to go get another QB anyway, so leaving is just a mercy at that point. Isn't Pete like 75 now or something
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Sep 5, 2023 05:44
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Turning 72 in a week.
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Sep 5, 2023 05:47
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that's ok. the president of the u.s. is 80 so those guys can both go for a while no problem 
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Sep 5, 2023 06:07
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The Patriots actual succession plan 
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Sep 5, 2023 07:02
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MaximilianK posted:The Patriots actual succession plan Still an upgrade over Matt Patricia and Joe Judge.
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Sep 5, 2023 07:49
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Is there a middle path where Kraft yanks his GM control, and does Bill allow that for his last few years? Because I don't see his coaching having fallen off at all still. They got 7 wins with a dead Cam and this being his receivers: WRs 10 Damiere Byrd 15 N'Keal Harry 16 Jakobi Meyers 14 Donte Moncrief KR 80 Gunner Olszewski PR Tight ends 86 Devin Asiasi 44 Dalton Keene And then 8 wins last year with the Patricia disaster and again one of the worst offenses in the league. Yes obviously Bill's GMing and drafting is what got the roster to that state, but he's still been too good to have the bottom fall out.
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Sep 5, 2023 10:42
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I can definitely seeing Belichick retiring before the record because this could be a 4 year slog of 6 to 8 win seasons. He’s not giving up any power and Kraft doesn’t care enough at this point to fire him. There’s a world where Saleh and Douglas are fired but based on current vibes that seems super low percentage. His record is what it is but this was full tear down after the Gase debacle and now the roster hasn’t been this good in 15 years. It needs to translate to wins though.
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Sep 5, 2023 12:13
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I actually think you can upgrade Stefanski to hot right off the bat. Watson's ban at the start of last year bought them a bit of a free pass. By the time he suited up the Browns were in total whatever territory, and that continued when Watson as expected looked like total dump. It was just an eye roll of a situation. Week to week nobody gave a poo poo about what the Browns were doing. I think it's different this year. I think there's some real "right, lets see why you did this to your franchise" pressure on Watson and anyone who had any voice at all in that contract, and I think people are absolutely primed and ready to burn them to the ground if Watson looks like anything less than elite right off the bat. I just think everything around the Browns could be set to escalate to a nuclear level implosion extremely quickly (which they loving deserve, fwiw) and I think that starts where it usually does - with the HC.
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Sep 5, 2023 12:19
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Bumhead posted:I actually think you can upgrade Stefanski to hot right off the bat. Agreed. HOT would be Stefanski and Gannon (lol).
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Sep 5, 2023 12:38
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I think the cardinals have to keep Gannon just because of the Wilks lawsuit. If they one and done ANOTHER head coach in a hopeless situation, lots of people are gonna be looking at them sideways.
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Sep 5, 2023 12:56
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Saleh has yet to prove he actually brings any advantage on gameday. Why would he survive a failed fourth season?Kalli posted:
I think you are severely underestimating Kraft's ego and pre-Belichick history of interfering with the team.
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Sep 5, 2023 13:01
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