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If automation means employment is going to end and a bunch of people will become useless, then why is that necessarily bad? I think it's because government-supplied, universal basic income is unlikely. If you're one of the few lucky people who own the robots, you can either share their production or you can keep it to yourself and let the less fortunate slowly die off. But the thing about automation is that it's more and more performed by computers. In fact, the most threatening form of automation in the future is almost entirely based on computers. And computers are just getting cheaper and cheaper. 20 years from now, computing power should be roughly a fifth of a percent of the price that it costs today - virtually anyone will be able to take OpenAI and throw it on the cloud. And absolutely anyone will be able to use someone else's OpenAI running on the cloud. Let solar power continue to get cheaper, let computing power continue to get cheaper, let 3D printing continue to improve - we'll be able to provide food, clothing, and shelter to ourselves, powered by robots. Civilization may collapse due to inequality, but you will be able to 3D-print a hut in the mountains and then 3D-print a solar-powered team of robots that are smart enough to farm for you, so you don't have to work for your food. Seriously, there's no reason this stuff must remain impossible forever. The question is how long do we have until the barest minimum of food, clothing, and shelter can be provided automatically by something that costs, say, one year of the average person's wages?
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Apr 14, 2017 03:45
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"How long until we're literally in Star Trek, elites be damned, assuming we keep this up?" is not the right question. It's actually whether we can keep this up that long or if things will break in very hard to fix ways first. Climate change, nuclear war, and the consequentially ruined infrastructure that brings aren't fixable via 3D printed robot AIs off the Internet, especially if the nodes used to make the Internet in the first place have been shut off/destroyed by said calamities.
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Apr 14, 2017 05:23
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Personal automation depends on the ability of the individual to get sufficient capital to construct or obtain the tools of automation. Given our ever-widening resource divide, what makes you think the underclasses will have access to that sort of resources by the time fully-automated space capitalism is possible?
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Apr 14, 2017 05:32
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Personally I'm storing up my political capital so that when I see the moment to create my AI army I can jump into it and install myself as the sole provider for government budget management through my armada of accountant AI's. They will inevitability grift me and buy their own bodies to destroy me with but for about 2 years it should be a pretty good ride.
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Apr 14, 2017 07:02
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its ok if society collapses. we can all be subsistence farmers in the mountains now thanks to technology
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Apr 14, 2017 07:25
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You sound dumb as poo poo, how the gently caress do you get power and magic 3-d printers? Edit: (observed post history of programming grotto and BFC). You've never had a job have you. Grognan fucked around with this message at 07:31 on Apr 14, 2017 |
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Apr 14, 2017 07:28
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Shortly before civilization collapses, I'm just going to buy up all the 3D printer companies, refuse to sell them to plebs and require you rent them from me, charging you a fee based on a currency you can't print which I may also control if I'm lucky. Oh, and I'm going to buy the mineral rights to the mountain you're on. Come back down to my 3D printer factory and make more printers for me. I'll let you print some future-rice for 50% off if you exceed your quota.
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Apr 14, 2017 07:36
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yeah dude all this super complicated additive manufacturing will work at the least efficient scale possible with zero infrastructure in the goddamn wilderness
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Apr 14, 2017 08:46
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oliveoil posted:Civilization may collapse due to inequality, but you will be able to 3D-print a hut in the mountains and then 3D-print a solar-powered team of robots that are smart enough to farm for you, so you don't have to work for your food. Meanwhile, your neighbors will 3D-print guns and ammunition, then roll up on harvest day and burn your hut to the ground, steal your 3D printer and your 3D printing material and your farming robots, and drive off with all your food.
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Apr 14, 2017 20:14
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Main Paineframe posted:Meanwhile, your neighbors will 3D-print guns and ammunition, then roll up on harvest day and burn your hut to the ground, steal your 3D printer and your 3D printing material and your farming robots, and drive off with all your food. The really smart ones will just show up with a hammer, and have a conversation with you about how it'd be a shame if you were too crippled up to work the fields anymore, and you ought to think about how well they protect you come harvest.
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Apr 14, 2017 20:57
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It's 60 years away. HTH OP. (to shitpost less) You're looking less at automated farming, and more automated microchemical production and lab-scale biotech, making edible molecules and medicines abiotically. Both of those have been under active research for 30 years and are actually ready to scale-out. Microchemical production, using CO2 and hydrogen from water as your feedstock, can produce the metabolizable molecules, like carbohydrates, fats, proteins. Carbon and hydrogen could also be feedstocks for polymers, medicine, dyes, solvents - particularly so with the biotech transition to plastic processing vessels, and pharma now footing the bill for that R&D. If you want to study this more, most of the research is done in Germany but there are good translations of major works. I recommend Microchemical Engineering in Practice by Dietrich et al, published by Wiley, and also Chemical Micro Process Engineering by Hessel et al, also Wiley. Most of the research is centered on laminar mixing technology, at the expense of separations. Like I said, it's 60 years away.
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Apr 14, 2017 21:43
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oliveoil posted:Let solar power continue to get cheaper, let computing power continue to get cheaper, let 3D printing continue to improve - we'll be able to provide food, clothing, and shelter to ourselves, powered by robots. You're just assuming a bunch of really dramatic technological improvements, and within a REALLY optimistic timeframe. From what I understand 3d printing is currently strictly limited in terms of what it can make, and there isn't really any clear path from what we have now to "3d printing almost all our needs." edit: I mean, even if you assume 3d printing advances to such a point, it would still need raw materials which would cost money.
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Apr 14, 2017 21:50
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Ytlaya posted:edit: I mean, even if you assume 3d printing advances to such a point, it would still need raw materials which would cost money. From the raw materials inside air and water, you can make food, medicines, polymers, dyes, fuels. Your half-dead succulent is doing it now for free, it isn't magic.
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Apr 14, 2017 22:49
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Mofabio posted:From the raw materials inside air and water, you can make food, medicines, polymers, dyes, fuels. Your half-dead succulent is doing it now for free, it isn't magic. Wouldn't that processing consume significant amounts of energy (edit: at a scale needed for people, at least)? edit: I mean, plants don't need much energy at all compared with humans to survive. Ytlaya fucked around with this message at 23:00 on Apr 14, 2017 |
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Apr 14, 2017 22:57
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You phrased it all dumb you you have correctly identified why the popular automation will steal all jobs apocalypse is a dumb concept. It requires crazy advances is all sorts of fields but supposedly leaves society exactly the same otherwise and is also so cheap it is cheaper than even minimum wage or outsourcing is but is simultaneously so expensive no one can afford it but the ultra rich.
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Apr 14, 2017 23:01
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Ytlaya posted:Wouldn't that processing consume significant amounts of energy (edit: at a scale needed for people, at least)? Plants are making due with the temperature, pressure, and molecular compatibility limits imposed by their biologies. As such, they're actually very inefficient at using sunlight to turn water and CO2 into carbohydrates -- most have efficiencies of less than 1%. Fun fact, the reason we grow so much corn to process into simple carbohydrates is that corn is a superstar in energy efficiency: 2%. At temperatures and pressures unavailable to plants, the separations and reactions have the potential for higher efficiencies. For instance, plants spend a lot of energy stripping hydrogen from water. But at 3000K, water spontaneously splits into hydrogen and oxygen -- 100% efficiency (minus the subsequent separation), because it's just heat energy. Obviously there is a lot of engineering to do, but fortunately such a machine isn't a physics problem (there is enough water vapor and carbon dioxide in your room to feed you for days) or even a material science problem, it just needs (a lot of) brainpower and time.
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Apr 14, 2017 23:15
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Mofabio posted:It's 60 years away. HTH OP. Why 60 years and not 50 or 70? Or 100? Or 500? That's a pretty bold prediction to say that in 60 years we'll have a world like what the OP describes. Unless i'm misunderstanding you LOL OP: I think we're still very far from having that level of technology, even more than 60 years. But i;m not an expert and actually know very little, I'm just basing this on gut feeling. Most technology breakthroughs turn out to be bullshit. I bet most of the 3D printing stuff is hype, same goes for artificial intelligence, robots, drones, selfdriving cars, solar energy, whatever. Also, climate change and water scarcity is going to create a shitstorm. More wars, more terrorism, more unrest. More economic chaos, too. I dont think the 21st century is shaping up to be a Star Trek-type world. More like a Mad Max-type world.
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Apr 15, 2017 00:18
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Can these high-tech future printers that work in the wilderness and can print anything from houses to food to robots also make the next wave of sexy sexbots? Asking for a friend, of course.
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Apr 15, 2017 00:25
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Blue Star posted:Also, climate change and water scarcity is going to create a shitstorm. More wars, more terrorism, more unrest. More economic chaos, too. I dont think the 21st century is shaping up to be a Star Trek-type world. More like a Mad Max-type world. In 60 years, we'll know one way or another
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Apr 15, 2017 00:25
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if you think about it, humans are basically organic robots that print poop
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Apr 15, 2017 00:56
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Mofabio posted:Plants are making due with the temperature, pressure, and molecular compatibility limits imposed by their biologies. As such, they're actually very inefficient at using sunlight to turn water and CO2 into carbohydrates -- most have efficiencies of less than 1%. Fun fact, the reason we grow so much corn to process into simple carbohydrates is that corn is a superstar in energy efficiency: 2%. How much energy do you think it takes to heat something to five thousand degrees Fahrenheit, how efficient do you think that heating process is, and where is someone living off-the-grid in a post-apocalyptic hellscape going to get all that energy for free? Is everyone going to 3D-print their own portable cold fusion reactors? You're engaging in more misleading numbers and vague hand-waving than someone pitching a perpetual energy machine.
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Apr 15, 2017 03:27
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Blue Star posted:OP: I think we're still very far from having that level of technology, even more than 60 years. But i;m not an expert and actually know very little, I'm just basing this on gut feeling. Most technology breakthroughs turn out to be bullshit. I bet most of the 3D printing stuff is hype, same goes for artificial intelligence, robots, drones, selfdriving cars, solar energy, whatever. While I agree that climate change is gonna gently caress us all over pretty soon, I don't get why you doubt stuff that already exists? 3D printing isn't hype, it's being used right now by multiple industries because it's cheaper than molding certain complex designs. Drones are hype? Solar energy?? Wtf? Btw, OP is totally an idiot silicone valley type who seems to think technology will solve all our problems and make us independent gods.
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Apr 15, 2017 03:43
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felat posted:While I agree that climate change is gonna gently caress us all over pretty soon, I don't get why you doubt stuff that already exists? 3D printing isn't hype, it's being used right now by multiple industries because it's cheaper than molding certain complex designs. Drones are hype? Solar energy?? Wtf? It will, but gods of what?
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Apr 15, 2017 04:11
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Mofabio posted:Plants are making due with the temperature, pressure, and molecular compatibility limits imposed by their biologies. As such, they're actually very inefficient at using sunlight to turn water and CO2 into carbohydrates -- most have efficiencies of less than 1%. Fun fact, the reason we grow so much corn to process into simple carbohydrates is that corn is a superstar in energy efficiency: 2%. Materials science dude checking in. Diamond crucibles max out at 1700 C in oxygen free enviornments. what's your box you plan to use, because I have no idea where you'd find candidates.
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Apr 15, 2017 05:14
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Triangle Shirt Factotum posted:Materials science dude checking in. Diamond crucibles max out at 1700 C in oxygen free enviornments. what's your box you plan to use, because I have no idea where you'd find candidates. Who says you need a box? 
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Apr 15, 2017 05:25
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Triangle Shirt Factotum posted:Materials science dude checking in. Diamond crucibles max out at 1700 C in oxygen free enviornments. what's your box you plan to use, because I have no idea where you'd find candidates. Did I say you process at 3000K? Reread my post: I said that Keq is nearly 1 around 3000K. Research reactors run around 700C.
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Apr 15, 2017 05:29
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yeah if you cook water hot enough it turns into food, that loving makes sense its science
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Apr 15, 2017 05:44
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Blue Star posted:Also, climate change and water scarcity is going to create a shitstorm. More wars, more terrorism, more unrest. More economic chaos, too. I dont think the 21st century is shaping up to be a Star Trek-type world. More like a Mad Max-type world. Well...even Star Trek had humanity blowing the hell out of each other in World War 3 before the ruined and broken survivors came together to form a new system.
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Apr 15, 2017 06:06
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Yeah I like Factorio too
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Apr 15, 2017 06:11
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Mofabio posted:At temperatures and pressures unavailable to plants, the separations and reactions have the potential for higher efficiencies. For instance, plants spend a lot of energy stripping hydrogen from water. But at 3000K, water spontaneously splits into hydrogen and oxygen -- 100% efficiency (minus the subsequent separation), because it's just heat energy. Obviously there is a lot of engineering to do, but fortunately such a machine isn't a physics problem (there is enough water vapor and carbon dioxide in your room to feed you for days) or even a material science problem, it just needs (a lot of) brainpower and time.
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Apr 15, 2017 10:08
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TheBalor posted:Well...even Star Trek had humanity blowing the hell out of each other in World War 3 before the ruined and broken survivors came together to form a new system. Just 7 more years to go until the bell riots!
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Apr 15, 2017 21:16
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