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sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

HappyHippo posted:

I'll give advanced stats one thing, it's convinced more coaches to go for it on fourth and short

Funny thing is that's not "advanced" really, it's just looking back and going "hey that thing almost nobody does usually works lol"

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Nodoze
Aug 17, 2006

If it's only for a night I can live without you

Kalli posted:

I mean it's sorta close. Aaron Schatz is a Patriots fan, and the literal reason he began the process was to prove Ron Borges wrong that the Pats missed the playoffs in 2002 because they couldn't establish the run, and basically turned into a process to show that traditional stats hosed things up and there were teams that did things a much smarter way that wasn't being measured.

Yeah. And I mean it sounds stupid, but 20 years ago it was real common for talking heads to say you need to take deep shots for stupid as gently caress reasons instead of converting 3rd down into 1st so you could have 3 more chances to score points.

I guess it's like how in baseball teams used to hate walks or something? I don't know I watched a couple of Moneyball clips on youtube once.

Yeah there was a bit of a pushback on guys taking tons of walks at first because old school guys like Joe Morgan (who actually took a shitload of walks and was exactly the kind of player the advanced stats loved) would say poo poo like clogging up the basepaths and you don't play the game to walk to first when he was an announcer on sunday night baseball. The other thing old guys couldn't get over at first either was why bunting is bad

Diva Cupcake
Aug 15, 2005

Kirios posted:

I don't see how the Lions pass up on Aidan Hutchinson. Hometown hero from the big college in the area? Extremely productive, top tier athlete? There'd be a riot if Kayvon was picked instead of him.
Brugler released his 1st mock of the year with Aidan Hutchinson going #1.

https://theathletic.com/2986023/2021/11/30/kayvon-thibodeaux-or-aidan-hutchinson-at-no-1-dane-bruglers-2022-nfl-mock-draft-version-1-0/

quote:

1. Detroit Lions — Aidan Hutchinson, edge, Michigan
The winless Lions need a long-term answer at quarterback, weapons at wide receiver and help at every level of the defense. This draft class doesn’t have a quarterback or pass-catching option worthy of a top-five pick, but there are several defensive players worth considering at No. 1. While Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux is the favorite to be drafted first, Hutchinson, who grew up just outside of Detroit, checks every box for the Lions as they rebuild the roster.

Athleticism? Hutchinson was No. 2 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List for a reason and will test well at the combine. Production? Hutchinson set the Michigan single-season sack record (13 sacks and counting) and currently ranks No. 2 in college football with 68 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. Intangibles? This is what truly sets Hutchinson apart. His competitive makeup is rare and raises the level of his teammates. If you included the players from this past April’s draft in the 2022 class, Hutchinson might not be drafted in the top 10. But he embodies a lot of the traits that head coach Dan Campbell craves and it wouldn’t be a surprise if a team like Detroit settles on Hutchinson at the top of its board.

2. Houston Texans — Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon*
Although he isn’t in the same prospect tier as Myles Garrett, Chase Young or the Bosa brothers, Thibodeaux is a disruptive pass rusher due to his upfield burst and quick feet. He is a strong run defender and should continue to improve as a pass rusher as his rush moves evolve. Thibodeaux reminds me of a stronger, longer version of Harold Landry. The Texans will also be in the quarterback market this off-season, but hard to see them drafting one this early.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars — Evan Neal, OT, Alabama*
Surrounding Trevor Lawrence with the support system to flourish should be priority No. 1 for Jaguars. Left tackle Cam Robinson is currently playing on the franchise tag, and neither Jawaan Taylor nor Walker Little are established starters. Neal has played at a high level at three different positions (right guard, right tackle, left tackle) in his three seasons in Tuscaloosa and offers a unique blend of size, strength and flexibility.

4. New York Jets (from Seattle) — Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU*
With a defense that ranks last in the NFL and an offensive line that still has weak spots, the Jets need plenty of help. With two picks in the top five, the Jets are in a position to address both areas. After an All-American freshman season and solid sophomore year, Stingley played in only three games in 2021 before foot surgery put him on the shelf. The interviews and medicals are the unknown aspects of his projection right now, but his talent warrants this pick.

5. New York Jets — Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State*
The Jets have addressed the offensive line in the first round in each of Joe Douglas’ first two drafts as general manager, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he keeps the streak going. Similar in ways to a “smaller” version of Mekhi Becton, Ekwonu is a freakishly explosive blocker for his size (6-foot-4, 322 pounds) with the raw power and movement skills to execute outside zone with ease. He can play tackle or guard interchangeably and would give the Jets a long-term answer at right tackle.

6. New York Giants — Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
The Giants saw first-hand what a versatile linebacker with explosive traits can do for your defense when they met the division-rival Dallas Cowboys with rookie stud Micah Parsons. Lloyd isn’t quite on Parsons’ level, but his blend of instincts and speed helps him impact the game in multiple ways. Linebacker might not be the top need for the Giants, but adding defensive playmakers is never a bad idea.

7. New York Giants (from Chicago) — Tyler Linderbaum, OC, Iowa*
Since the merger in 1970 only once has a center been drafted in the top 10 — and that is only if you include Pro Football Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, who was drafted as an “interior blocker” ninth overall in 1983. But in this class, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Linderbaum this high, especially to a team like the Giants who need to add tough, athletic blockers in the trenches.

8. Philadelphia Eagles — Kyle Hamilton, DS, Notre Dame*
Based on talent, Hamilton is one of the best this draft class has to offer. But his draft projection is going to be interesting because not every team will value his hybrid skill set. With his athletic range and diagnose skills, Hamilton frustrates quarterbacks because of the different ways he impacts the game. He has missed the second half of Notre Dame’s season due to a minor knee injury, so the medical evaluations will be important.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami) — George Karlaftis, edge, Purdue*
With Derek Barnett likely headed elsewhere in free agency and Brandon Graham coming off an injury (and about to turn 34), the Eagles will be looking for pass rusher help this offseason. Karlaftis might not have elite length or twitch, but his persistent power and skilled hand work allow him to be disruptive.

10. Carolina Panthers — Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
Flash back six years ago: Pickett, then a high school junior, committed to play quarterback at Temple for head coach Matt Rhule. Pickett re-opened his recruitment once bigger programs showed interest and chose Pitt, but this time around, Rhule might decide Pickett’s next destination. To fix its hole at quarterback, Carolina has unsuccessfully tried the former first-round pick route with Teddy Bridgewater in 2020 and Sam Darnold and Cam Newton this season. Unless they lure Aaron Rodgers to Charlotte this offseason, using a first-round pick of their own on a promising quarterback like Pickett might be the Panthers’ best option.

11. Atlanta Falcons — Travon Walker, edge, Georgia*
12. Minnesota Vikings — Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson*
13. New Orleans Saints — Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State*
14. Philadelphia (from Indianapolis) — Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia*
15. Cleveland Browns — David Ojabo, edge, Michigan*
16. Pittsburgh Steelers — Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina*
17. Denver Broncos — Jordan Davis, NT, Georgia
18. Las Vegas Raiders — Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
19. Washington Football Team – Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss*
20. Los Angeles Chargers — Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida*
21. Miami Dolphins (from San Francisco) — Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State*
22. Buffalo Bills — Kenyon Green, OT/G, Texas A&M*
23. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles) — Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas*
24. Cincinnati Bengals — Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati*
25. Dallas Cowboys — Cameron Thomas, edge, San Diego State*
26. Kansas City Chiefs — Drake London, WR, USC*
27. Tennessee Titans — Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama*
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — DeMarvin Leal, DL, Texas A&M*
29. New England Patriots — Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
30. Green Bay Packers — Darian Kinnard, OT/G, Kentucky
31. Baltimore Ravens — Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota
32. Arizona Cardinals — Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn

Android Apocalypse
Apr 28, 2009

The future is
AUTOMATED
and you are
OBSOLETE

Illegal Hen
Week 13 N/V thread is up!

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