Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

As well as the Syrian government claiming 'The West' is aiding a terrorist insurgency, etc. etc.

Has Russia made claims or confirmations that these are terrorists as well, or do they agree that it's peaceful protesting and a government should have the right to 'contain' the situation?

# ? Feb 10, 2012 23:26

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# ? Apr 27, 2024 01:09

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

These are the most obnoxiously small images, presumably on purpose, but it's good to see the State Department releasing satellite imagery of Syria.

http://www.stateondemand.com/Latest-Stories/satellite-images-of-syrian-military-artillery/s/63057bec-e32d-4bee-9d9c-ba8531a3a90a

# ? Feb 10, 2012 23:45

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Egypt's strike starts tomorrow. I get that they chose february 11 because it's the anniversary of Mubarak leaving office, but it's also a saturday.

edit: Wait, actually, what days are the Egyptian working week?

Xandu fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Feb 11, 2012

# ? Feb 11, 2012 00:36

Kenning: Jan 11, 2009; I really want to post goatse. Instead I only have these🍄.

I don't know about Egypt, but in Syria the workweek is Sunday-Thursday. I could see it being similar in Egypt.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 00:51

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Yeah I think you're right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWbQwD8zm18

This dude is such a badass.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 01:45

pantslesswithwolves: Oct 28, 2008; Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

Xandu posted:

Egypt's strike starts tomorrow. I get that they chose february 11 because it's the anniversary of Mubarak leaving office, but it's also a saturday.

edit: Wait, actually, what days are the Egyptian working week?

Sunday to Thursday.

SCAF is apparently deploying tanks to city streets in anticipation. This may not go well.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 01:54

cochise: Sep 11, 2011

BeefThief posted:

Someone raised the possibility of a humanitarian airlift to drop food and medicine in heavily embattled areas of Syria. Is this feasible, logistically and politically? Is there a downside?

Berlin Airlift 2.0

edit: quoted wrong person :v:

# ? Feb 11, 2012 01:57

Golbez: Oct 9, 2002; 1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

cochise posted:

Berlin Airlift 2.0

edit: quoted wrong person

Except in that case, the Allies were allowed air corridors through East Germany.

Wikipedia posted:

Although the ground routes had never been negotiated, the same was not true of the air. On 30 November 1945, it had been agreed in writing that there would be three twenty-mile-wide air corridors providing free access to Berlin. Additionally, unlike a force of tanks and trucks, the Soviets could not claim that cargo aircraft were some sort of military threat. In the face of unarmed aircraft refusing to turn around, the only way to enforce the blockade would have been to shoot them down. An airlift would force the Soviet Union into the position of either taking military action in a morally reprehensible fashion, breaking their own agreements, or back down.

I doubt Syria would be as reserved as the Soviets. They have nothing to lose by shooting down planes resupplying rebels inside their own borders.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 02:03

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3433

This article goes through the various military options and their risks, etc.

quote:

Humanitarian Corridor

France has raised the possibility of creating ground corridors to deliver food and medicine to beleaguered civilians in Syria's interior. Such an option could be carried out with or without the regime's assent, using aid workers in the former case or armed "observers" in the latter. For instance, overland routes from Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan could service distressed populations in hotspots such as Idlib, Homs, Hama, and Deraa. Air corridors could conceivably reach less accessible areas. At present, however, it is not clear that corridors of either kind are needed.

Operational requirements. This option would necessitate a major logistical effort. Suitable ports or airfields would have to be secured near each corridor, and large numbers of vehicles and aircraft would be needed to move supplies into Syria. Security would be required for logistical hubs and overland routes to ensure that aid reaches the intended population. And some means of command and control would be needed to organize, coordinate, and secure corridors and relief convoys.

Risks and challenges. Maintaining aid corridors would pose significant challenges under anything but permissive conditions. If the regime were to overtly or covertly oppose the effort, the difficulties could be substantial. Damascus might disrupt relief operations by passive means, such as obstructing roads with livestock or organizing demonstrations by regime supporters. Or it could take aggressive steps such as employing mines or improvised explosive devices, or even regular forces, to block aid convoys. All of these actions would raise the risks for those participating in corridor operations, and the humanitarian mission could quickly become a military campaign. Many countries would likely cease participating in a humanitarian operation that took a violent turn, particularly since such a development would require more than the armed "observers" envisioned by France.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 02:06

thiswayliesmadness: Dec 3, 2009; I hope to see you next time, and take care all

Xandu posted:

Yeah I think you're right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWbQwD8zm18

This dude is such a badass.

Considering all the other videos with children in it we've seen lately, I had a massive lump in my throat watching that kid run in a street while everyone else is hiding.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 02:50

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Hmm, according to one of McClatchy's reporters.

https://twitter.com/#!/SBengali posted:

US officials: al Qaida in Iraq carried out Damascus bombings, likely today's in Aleppo. Coming tonight from @McClatchyDC

# ? Feb 11, 2012 03:04

Paradox Personified: Mar 15, 2010; SoroScrew

thiswayliesmadness posted:

Considering all the other videos with children in it we've seen lately, I had a massive lump in my throat watching that kid run in a street while everyone else is hiding.

That was in Ugarit, if the title is accurate.
Little dude is just running like it ain't no thang. "Can't shoot me, for I give no fucks! *waves to the people along the street*"
Awe-inspiring. I hope he's okay.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 03:08

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Ugarit is just the name of the group publishing the videos, it's in Dara'a.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 03:11

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Xandu posted:

Hmm, according to one of McClatchy's reporters.

Here's the article. It's possible, but I'd like to see confirmation from the groups before believing it fully.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/02/10/138593/us-officials-al-qaida-behind-syria.html posted:

ASHINGTON � The Iraqi branch of al Qaida, seeking to exploit the bloody turmoil in Syria to reassert its potency, carried out two recent bombings in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and likely was behind suicide bombings Friday that killed at least 28 people in the largest city, Aleppo, U.S. officials told McClatchy.

The officials cited U.S. intelligence reports on the incidents, which appear to verify Syrian President Bashar Assad's charges of al Qaida involvement in the 11-month uprising against his rule. The Syrian opposition has claimed that Assad's regime, which has responded with massive force against the uprising, staged the bombings to discredit the pro-democracy movement calling for his ouster.

The international terrorist network's presence in Syria also raises the possibility that Islamic extremists will try to hijack the uprising, which would seriously complicate efforts by the United States and its European and Arab partners to force Assad's regime from power. On Friday, President Barack Obama repeated his call for Assad to step down, accusing his forces of "outrageous bloodshed."

The U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the bombings came on the orders of Ayman al Zawahiri, the Egyptian extremist who assumed leadership of al Qaida's Pakistan-based central command after the May 2011 death of Osama bin Laden. They suggest that Zawahiri still wields considerable influence over the network's affiliates despite the losses the Pakistan-based core group has suffered from missile-firing CIA drones and other intensified U.S. counterterrorism operations.

U.S. officials said that al Qaida in Iraq, or AQI, began pushing to become involved in Syria as Assad's security forces and gangs of loyalist thugs launched a vicious crackdown on opposition demonstrations, igniting large-scale bloodshed. Growing numbers of lightly armed army deserters and civilians have joined an armed insurrection, and perhaps thousands of people have been killed.

Zawahiri finally authorized AQI to begin operations in Syria, the officials said, in what's believed to be the first time that the branch has operated outside of Iraq.

"This was Zawahiri basically taking the shackles off," said a U.S. official with access to the intelligence reports. Like others interviewed for this story, he spoke on condition of anonymity because the issue involves classified information.

U.S. officials believe that the Sunni Muslim AQI was looking to expand beyond Iraq, where it has been stepping up attacks on majority Shiites. In Syria, Assad heads a regime dominated by Alawites, a minority Shiite Muslim sect that has ruthlessly ruled the Sunni Muslim-majority country since Assad's father seized power in a 1963 coup.

"This has less to do with the targets and more to do with the opportunity," the U.S. official said.

Fears of AQI's widening ambitions are one reason why the United States wants to maintain good relations with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki despite concerns over his increasingly autocratic rule, a second U.S. official said.

"We desperately need to partner with him (Maliki) to go after al Qaida. We think we can," the official said. "Because these guys are already spreading. They did the two attacks in Damascus."

The first Damascus attack occurred Dec. 23, when suicide bombers detonated cars packed with explosives outside intelligence agency compounds in the Syrian capital. At least 44 people were killed and more than 160 wounded.

Then, on Jan. 6, at least 26 people were killed and dozens injured in a bombing against a second intelligence agency compound.

As regime forces continued pummeling the opposition stronghold of Homs on Friday, two suicide bombers driving explosives-packed vehicles attacked security compounds in Aleppo, killing at least 28 people. It was the first significant violence to strike the commercial center, which has largely remained loyal to Assad.

The Assad regime blamed all of the attacks on al Qaida, citing them as proof that it is fighting terrorists and not a pro-democracy movement. In each case, opposition activists accused the regime of staging the bombings to discredit their movement and undermine the support it's receiving from the United States, European powers and the Arab League.

The U.S. officials said that AQI and Zawahiri apparently see Syria's turmoil as an opportunity to reassert themselves after the battering the core group has taken with the death of bin Laden and the killing and capture of key operatives in Pakistan's tribal areas.

They "are seeing space, seeing a vacuum, and opportunity to bounce back and they are taking advantage of it," said the first U.S. official.

AQI operatives may also think that Syria offers them the possibility of challenging Zawahiri and his group for leadership of the network.

"We never had to worry about the al Qaida in Iraq people, bad as they were in Iraq, providing real competition to the main al Qaida force," he said. "But that can happen. Because the main al Qaida force has been decimated in Pakistan, and these guys may get a new lease on life."

A third U.S. official said that AQI has been able to operate in Syria because it still maintains in that country networks that it used to infiltrate foreign extremists into western Iraq to fight U.S. forces.

"This is opportunism, plain and simple," he said.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 03:17

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Would they confirm it, though?

Presumably they're trying to incite violence and terror so each side would accuse the other. Coming out and admitting it was them sort of pushes the blame off each side. I'm just guessing here, I can't say I'm familiar with Al Qaida's political relationship with Syria or how they would like to see the outcome of this revolution.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 03:25

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

Sivias posted:

Would they confirm it, though?

Presumably they're trying to incite violence and terror so each side would accuse the other. Coming out and admitting it was them sort of pushes the blame off each side. I'm just guessing here, I can't say I'm familiar with Al Qaida's political relationship with Syria or how they would like to see the outcome of this revolution.

It may have been a "hey we're still here and we can still do poo poo so join us or else" attack.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 03:29

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

I'm not sure about AQI specifically, but in general al-Qaeda and its affiliates confirm their attacks. The fact that Zawahiri is mentioned as authorizing the attacks leads me to believe they'd claim responsibility if it was them. Zawahiri has previously praised the Syrian protesters, which makes sense given that Ba'athist Alawites (i.e. non-Sunni) are in charge.

If it is them, I don't think it's as a simple as saying it was just opportunism like the guy quoted in the article did.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 03:30

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Yeah, that sounds very suspicious. Almost like reverse propaganda.

Assad claims the protesters are terrorists and portrays them as violent.
Western media claims the revolution is good and portrays them as peaceful.
But who to blame actual terrorist acts on? How convenient we have a group notoriously associated with terrorism.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 03:37

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

I'm pretty sure Al-Qaida would be against the Syrian government. It's a secular government that draws most of its support from Alawites and Christians, which an avowedly Sunni group like Al Qaida would despise on principle.

I'm still pretty suspicious of the claim they are behind the Aleppo bombings though.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 03:48

Paradox Personified: Mar 15, 2010; SoroScrew

Xandu posted:

Ugarit is just the name of the group publishing the videos, it's in Dara'a.

I thought it was referencing the port city near the White Harbor, my bad. :themoreyouknow:

# ? Feb 11, 2012 03:59

pantslesswithwolves: Oct 28, 2008; Ba-dam ba-DUMMMMMM

If AQI/ISI involvement in the Aleppo bombing is confirmed, the single saddest thing to me is that it will confirm Assad's claim of fighting an Al-Qaeda-linked plot. Granted, he was making these claims a year before armed militant struggle made its debut, but there you go.

Syria let foreign fighters into
Iraq to join AQI and the insurgency at large. Was it really unexpected that they would eventually trickle back in? Speaking in quantative terms, Assad has killed more Sunni Muslims civilians than the US and Israel combined in the past year.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 04:34

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

Are there any live feeds? Tomorrow (just a few hours for them now?) is expected to be a bad day, right?

# ? Feb 11, 2012 05:06

VanSandman: Feb 16, 2011; SWAP.AVI EXCHANGER

I just can't shake the feeling that Syria is going to be the flashpoint for a much larger conflict. If Turkey gets seriously involved.... hooooly poo poo.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 05:07

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Sivias posted:

Are there any live feeds? Tomorrow (just a few hours for them now?) is expected to be a bad day, right?

http://bambuser.com/v/2359004

Probably, but then again, they're all bad days.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 05:16

Scaramouche: Mar 26, 2001; SPACE FACE! SPACE FACE!

VanSandman posted:

I just can't shake the feeling that Syria is going to be the flashpoint for a much larger conflict. If Turkey gets seriously involved.... hooooly poo poo.

This is my thought as well, even if Turkey doesn't get involved. If Lebanon and Jordan get drawn in, where does it end? I think any over the border antics are going to have serious repercussions. Israel must be making GBS threads themselves, they don't out-tech and out-force all the neighbors like in the 60s 70s anymore.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 05:42

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

VanSandman posted:

I just can't shake the feeling that Syria is going to be the flashpoint for a much larger conflict. If Turkey gets seriously involved.... hooooly poo poo.

Why, there's not compelling reason for other countries to get involved, just another crushed uprising.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 05:47

Golbez: Oct 9, 2002; 1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

Xandu posted:

http://bambuser.com/v/2359004

Probably, but then again, they're all bad days.

I think I'm hearing small arms fire? Could government forces be that close?

# ? Feb 11, 2012 06:06

Sivias: Dec 12, 2006; I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.

I heard it too, but considering the city is eerily silent, any gunshots would echo and could be heard from a long distance.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 06:10

Golbez: Oct 9, 2002; 1 2 3!
If you want to take a shot at me get in line, line
1 2 3!
Baby, I've had all my shots and I'm fine

Ok, that was definitely small arms fire.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 06:56

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

There's been small arms fire all three days I've watched/listened to the stream. Yesterday it sounded like it was moving up a street towards the camera in the evening. It quieted down once it got dark, though the rockets and mortars didn't ever really stop for that long.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 07:45

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Shelling has stopped for about 30 minutes now, been hearing quite a bit more small arms fire. Most of it has sounded pretty one-sided until just now, actually.

E2: holy poo poo that was closeby

E3: lol, phone is now ringing somewhere. The microphone on this camera is really good.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 09:46 on Feb 11, 2012

# ? Feb 11, 2012 09:21

Svartvit: Jun 18, 2005; al-Qabila samaa Bahth

Xandu posted:

I'm not sure about AQI specifically, but in general al-Qaeda and its affiliates confirm their attacks. The fact that Zawahiri is mentioned as authorizing the attacks leads me to believe they'd claim responsibility if it was them. Zawahiri has previously praised the Syrian protesters, which makes sense given that Ba'athist Alawites (i.e. non-Sunni) are in charge.

If it is them, I don't think it's as a simple as saying it was just opportunism like the guy quoted in the article did.

I was going to say that what's going on in Syria is looking more and more like what happened in Algeria, but I didn't want to jump the gun, and I honestly don't know enough about what really went down in Algeria.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 12:41

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Algeria wasn't particularly sectarian.

Interesting info on all those pro-Assad rallies.

http://www.ayyam.org/english/?p=219 posted:

Emails uncovered sent to Presidential aide Akram Issa, detail billings and accounts and efforts made in advance to create these spontaneous rallies in support of the President.

The email in question marked SPAM in the subject header, states Governors involved offered their verbal commitment to pay the supplier of these protests yet have not paid up their dues as per the Minister�s request. Attachments in the email detail itemized descriptions of the outstanding balance, which reach a total of 1.1 Million SYP in October 2011 (before the inflation of the SYP) at the time equaling $20,000.

The rally in Lattakia province alone cost the administration 315,000 SYP the bare minimum, the supplier writes, to make the rally seem like an acceptable turnout.

An attachment titled �Details of the Flag Raising Rally in Lattakia� includes 45,000 SYP ($800) spent on 60 kg of confetti to be thrown in the air the moment the Syrian flag is raised. One hundred sweaters for the flag raising crew in the colors of the flag totaling 2,500 SYP ($580) and sound system rental for the rally at 500,000 SYP ($9000).

In another attachment titled �Detailed billings to the personal account of Monhal Zeitoun� costs for rallies held in Damascus, Sweida and Hasakeh province are itemized. The supplier writes under the header for Damascus �Campaign: Our martyrs, your blood runs in our veins� and details expenditures of 150,000 SYP ($2,600) to cover sound and broadcast of the event including another 49,000 SYP ($875) for printed t-shirts. A miscellaneous amount of 57,000 SYP includes costs for ironing clothes, supply of water, taxi cabs and a refrigerator and its transport.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 17:09

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Xandu posted:

Interesting info on all those pro-Assad rallies.

At least astro-turfing seems to be much more reasonably priced in Syria.

At least in one way there are parallels to Libya.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 17:12

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

A Syrian general just got gunned down in Damascus today by unknown gunmen according to MSNBC. Meanwhile, in Lebanon...

edit: Syria's government is claiming the general was part of the army's medical division, not an combat arms general.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h3Xl81Dr6f5HJyGLJSh6Sf6uJ7fw?docId=fe7124ca149a4e87b51e817087afd365q

quote:

Lebanese gunmen clash over Syria crisis
By BASSEM MROUE, Associated Press � 19 minutes ago
BEIRUT (AP) � Clashes between pro- and anti-Syria gunmen in a northern Lebanese city left two people dead and 12 wounded Saturday in the latest skirmish between Lebanese factions over the crisis in neighboring Syria, security officials said.
The two sides fired on each other from rival neighborhoods in Tripoli, one dominated by Sunnis, the other by Alawites, a Shiite offshoot sect. Officials said clashes started Friday night and continued sporadically Saturday afternoon.
Lebanese factions have been deeply divided over the Syrian uprising, and tensions have intensified with the regime's siege of the central Syrian city of Homs that has reportedly killed hundreds this week. Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime is dominated by Alawites, while the revolt against him has been led by Sunnis.
The battle took place between the Sunni neighborhood of Bab Tabbaneh and the Alawite district of Jabal Mohsen, which is positioned on a hill overlooking its rival. Gunmen fired automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades from among houses and alleys across the avenue that separates the two districts, ironically named Syria Street.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said one person from each neighborhood was killed, and six civilians and six soldiers were wounded as Lebanese troops tried to deploy between the two sides to stop the fighting.
A Lebanese army statement said troops conducted raids in the area, detained a number of gunmen and confiscated their weapons. It said one soldier was seriously wounded as troops faced gunfire and a grenade fell near a military vehicle.
The army command warned it will not tolerate any armed act, warning that gunmen will be held responsible for human or material losses among civilians and members of the military.
An Associated Press photographer in the area said streets were empty and people were hiding in their homes as cracks of gunfire were heard between the two neighborhoods. He added that troops were trying to deploy between the rivals.
Low-level clashes are common between Bab Tabanna and Jebel Mohsen, with occasional gunfire or grenade-throwing, because of the longtime sectarian tensions between their residents. But the violence has become more frequent in recent days because of the worsening situation in Syria. Sunnis in Bab Tabanna resent their Alawite neighbors' backing of Assad, while Jebel Mohsen residents accuse their rivals of giving aid to the uprising.
Each side blamed the other for starting the latest bout of violence.
Alawite leader Rifaat Eid told reporters in Tripoli that "we will not be pulled into strife even if they shell us starting today and lasting for 20 days."
The latest violence came a day after an arms cache hidden in an olive grove exploded in Tripoli's predominantly Sunni neighborhood of Abu Samra, killing one person and wounding three in what appeared to be an accident, security officials said. The incident was a sign of how widespread weapons are in Lebanon's north, not far from the Syrian border.
Tripoli is the hometown of Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who was chosen last year by the Shiite Hezbollah group and its allies for the post at the head of a pro-Syrian government. Many Sunnis, who are largely anti-Syrian, were against his appointment.
Mikati met in Paris on Saturday with his anti-Syrian predecessor, Saad Hariri, who is undergoing treatment after he broke his leg while skiing, Hariri's office said. It was not clear if the meeting was the beginning of a reconciliation between the two Sunni leaders.
Copyright � 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

New Division fucked around with this message at 17:48 on Feb 11, 2012

# ? Feb 11, 2012 17:46

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

Im hearing some small arms fire on the live stream. It will probably pick up at daylight

Anyone remember the webcams that were set up in Gaza during Operation Cast Lead in 09? There is nothing more unsettling than watching a live war on your computer....

# ? Feb 11, 2012 17:50

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

quote:

Mikati met in Paris on Saturday with his anti-Syrian predecessor, Saad Hariri, who is undergoing treatment after he broke his leg while skiing, Hariri's office said.

Oh Hariri, never change.

The comics out of Syria have really taken a turn for the dark recently.

The right column goes Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and then Syria.

"I want to tell you the story of this nation until you sleep."

"The massacre of Homs. We have no one other than you, O God."

"The beginning of the end of the Syrian Regime. The massacre of Homs."

# ? Feb 11, 2012 17:56

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Some photos from Awamiya, Saudi Arabia.

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.244665898915150.56509.181544788560595&type=1

Note the Bahraini flag.

Identified in the caption as ulama.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 18:04

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

If Saudi Arabian protests get to the level of the other Arab Spring protests and the kingdom resorts to violence its going to put the US in a really precarious position. Its one thing when an enemy government like Syria or Libya starts killing its own people, but when its a "friendly" government thats something completely different. Just look at Bahrain for example. you didnt hear a peep out of the US when the protests and killings happened there. Albeit Bahrain is a much smaller country and the intensity of the protests wasnt like that of Egpyt. But if large protests break out in Saudi Arabia what will the US do? If the kingdom massacres its people theres no way the US or NATO is going to get militarily involved.

However on the flipside of the coin it might be easier to deal with. Being such close friends of SA we have quite a bit of leverage, similar to Egpyt. We sell a lot of arms to SA, and we are a good friend to have when you have an enemy like Iran. So if we see Egypt style protests in SA, then we may see an Egypt style resolution to them. Not that thats a perfect resolution, but much better than what happened in Libya or Syria.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 18:16

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# ? Apr 27, 2024 01:09

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Charliegrs posted:

But if large protests break out in Saudi Arabia what will the US do? If the kingdom massacres its people theres no way the US or NATO is going to get militarily involved.

Realpolitik would mean Saudi Arabia would get ignored since having a unknown opposition take over a country with strategic resources would be even worse than Egypt.

# ? Feb 11, 2012 18:25

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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