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I mean obviously though granted there are things like trading the SPY or the QQQ or whatever where there's no FA to speak of other than broad market analysis I guess.
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Nov 8, 2012 04:36
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Stefan Prodan posted:I don't check this thread all that often but I'm surprised to see people talking about moving averages. I came in once talking about some trades I had done on a mostly TA basis and got mostly an attitude of "This is voodoo, you can do it if you want but it's all luck" Earlier in the thread you essentially expressed the opinion that because it can't be proven or disproven that technical analysis works (false) and that you heard of people being successful with it that using technical analysis is a sound way to make good trades. That's piss poor logic. Markets are scary and unpredictable, so it makes sense that traders try to make sense of them with numerology--but numerology is really only useful if it gives you the courage to make good choices that you wouldn't otherwise have the stones to make. You still need to know how to make good stock picks to be successful. And even then weird things can happen. The bottom line is that tons of people read this thread, and a lot come in with horrible ideas asking for trading advice, and I think it would be a shame if anyone was lead to believe that trades based on raw technical analysis (mostly numerology) can pull reliable returns. So feel free to talk about how you're doing your trading (please do in fact), but if your trading is bullshit pseudoscience expect people to call you on it the same way they call me on my pathetic fundamental analysis. Constructive feedback is good.  Dolphin fucked around with this message at 08:02 on Nov 8, 2012 |
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Nov 8, 2012 07:16
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Just buy on the P/E man. Low P/E buy, high P/E sell right?
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Nov 8, 2012 11:51
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Shrinkage posted:Just buy on the P/E man. low PEs can get lower.
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Nov 8, 2012 14:05
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tiananman posted:low PEs can get lower. Oh really?
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Nov 8, 2012 15:06
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Dolphin posted:COUNTIN THE BILLIES was the poster that I argued with earlier in the thread because he subscribes to the divinatory potential of TA. It is voodoo pseudoscience, but I think it can be helpful for people looking for entry and exit strategies on stocks that have strong fundamentals. I poo poo on technical analysis earlier in the thread because people were sifting stocks based on technicals, which is a glorified way to blindly gamble on stocks. Thankfully there are many ways to make money in the market so it doesn't matter what you believe so long as you, well, make money at it. I'm sure everyone has read a Turtle Trading book where the Donchian channel was used as entry and exits and that it worked fabulously well. Now however, it doesn't work at all. And the trader who did the best in the turtle group now, according to the new Market Wizards book, is out of the market. The reason is because he never adapted the strategy to today's markets. My point is that I think trading based purely on technicals is absolutely possible but the amount of research that's needed to keep adapting the strategy is staggering and outside the possibility for most individual investors.
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Nov 8, 2012 15:55
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What do you guys think of McDonalds (MCD)? It's going low today due to poor reports, I'm wondering if it's time to buy.
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Nov 8, 2012 16:47
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rndm posted:What do you guys think of McDonalds (MCD)? It's going low today due to poor reports, I'm wondering if it's time to buy. I bought in may at about $90, figuring it was close to the bottom, and would be a relatively safe, long-term dividend play. I still think that, but now I'm out $5/share. I may not be the best opinion here.
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Nov 8, 2012 17:32
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Someone was asking about McDonalds not a few pages ago, check it out.
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Nov 8, 2012 20:28
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Lot of goons talking up MCD. You know what that means 
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Nov 8, 2012 20:41
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Word. First sales drop since 2003. 3.5% dividend yield is nice but you are paying 16x earnings for that sales and earnings growth. Here is where TA comes in for me. You are at support at 85 which will be defended. You could get a bounce here and if support holds $85 is a nice entry price. If $85 does not hold you are looking at a ~10% drop. Buy a little now and if support holds add to your position. If it doesn't wait for the selloff and add more at the eventual bottom. Be smart. Chances are the fourth quarter report will be bad because companies ratchet down expectations and get all the bad news out at the end of the year in order to start the new one on a fresh foot where they beat lowered expectations. evilwaldo fucked around with this message at 22:24 on Nov 8, 2012 |
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Nov 8, 2012 21:10
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:My point is that I think trading based purely on technicals is absolutely possible but the amount of research that's needed to keep adapting the strategy is staggering and outside the possibility for most individual investors. This. I'm a profitable algo trader (which by definition is trading only on technicals) and it takes weeks of working full-time to get a strategy planned, coded, backtested, paper traded, and tested live. With that said, though, I do futures and forex, which is definitely less reliant on fundamentals than individual stocks are.
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Nov 9, 2012 00:27
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Amun posted:This. I'm a profitable algo trader (which by definition is trading only on technicals) and it takes weeks of working full-time to get a strategy planned, coded, backtested, paper traded, and tested live. What I have found for me is that the shorter-term the strategy the more reliant you become on technicals. My gold positions are simply lock away while the miners I care more about seasonality and technicals.
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Nov 9, 2012 01:11
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I really want to meet someone that actually went long GRPN today (apparently a lot of people). I want to step into their mind and see what makes them tick.
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Nov 9, 2012 02:25
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abagofcheetos posted:I really want to meet someone that actually went long GRPN today (apparently a lot of people). I want to step into their mind and see what makes them tick. Probably the type of person who reads this thread 
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Nov 9, 2012 03:16
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evilwaldo posted:What I have found for me is that the shorter-term the strategy the more reliant you become on technicals. Absolutely. I hold positions anywhere from 500ms to a few hours and never overnight, so fundamentals are basically irrelevant. Pretty much the only fundamentals that get factored in is not trading around economic releases.
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Nov 9, 2012 03:44
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AAPL is going to bankrupt me. 
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Nov 9, 2012 03:47
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Josh Lyman posted:AAPL is going to bankrupt me. I saw one of the random news bits attached to the google chart giving it a $900 price target. Hang in there buddy! Don't sell it!
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Nov 9, 2012 05:27
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Hummer Driving human being posted:I saw one of the random news bits attached to the google chart giving it a $900 price target. Hang in there buddy! Don't sell it! I have a bridge I will sell you for $100000.
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Nov 9, 2012 07:05
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Looks like AAPL is on track to stabilize around 500.cowofwar posted:Apple has rode a speculative bubble over the last year as everyone and their joe public dog piled in. Apple followed a good linear growth trend during the years of 2009-2011 and if it had continued without the rush it would be at around 500 today. I think that's a more reasonable valuation and I imagine there's a lot of resistance in the stock price as people continue to take profits. 
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Nov 9, 2012 07:29
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lightpole posted:I have a bridge I will sell you for $100000. Even I don't believe it will go to $900 anytime soon, but I do think if you give it about 6-9 months it will be back in the 650s* or so. It is possible to hold stocks for more than a couple of weeks, contrary to popular opinion. *This projection not based on fundamental or technical analysis.
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Nov 9, 2012 07:32
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Hummer Driving human being posted:*This projection not based on fundamental or technical analysis. Can I ask what it is based on?
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Nov 9, 2012 08:22
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Hummer Driving human being posted:Even I don't believe it will go to $900 anytime soon, but I do think if you give it about 6-9 months it will be back in the 650s* or so. It is possible to hold stocks for more than a couple of weeks, contrary to popular opinion. Could have had a 10% trailing stop and would be out at $630 holding cash waiting for a good entry point. Apple has already been discussed to death so I'm not going to bring it up. The issue here is sitting on a stock and watching it drop 20% with apparently no plan except hope. lightpole fucked around with this message at 08:31 on Nov 9, 2012 |
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Nov 9, 2012 08:29
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a lovely poster posted:Can I ask what it is based on? lightpole posted:The issue here is sitting on a stock and watching it drop 20% with apparently no plan except hope. Pretty much 
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Nov 9, 2012 15:54
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My trades for the day: AAPL1209K540 2012/11/09 Call on APPLE at $540.00 22 $3.60 $9.05 $19,910.00 $11,990.00(151.39 %) $11,990.00 (151.39 %) AAPL1209K550 2012/11/09 Call on APPLE at $550.00 20 $1.30 $2.90 $5,800.00 $3,200.00(123.08 %) $3,200.00 (123.08 %) Felt that apple was going to go upwards as the day begun and it did. I have puts that im waiting on for it to fall back to 545 or 540 & below before the end of the day. Sold my calls as I feel i should take these profits and run for the time being. Czars Puppet fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Nov 9, 2012 |
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Nov 9, 2012 17:30
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2012/11/09 Put on APPLE at $540.00 3 $4.70 $0.59 $177.00 -$1,233.00(-87.45 %) -$1,233.00 (-87.45 %) 2012/11/09 Put on APPLE at $545.00 1 $7.65 $1.40 $140.00 -$625.00(-81.70 %) -$625.00 (-81.70 %) Im selling these puts now as to stop profit loss from my call trade above ^. And am now buying Apple stock @ 553, as new data is suggesting it will end the day at 565- 570.
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Nov 9, 2012 18:45
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Really? You couldn't wait for Obama to give his speech? Either way though you had a ridiculous day so congrats on that. e: Wasn't a big drop and we're already pretty much back to where it was before the speech. Shmoogy fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Nov 9, 2012 |
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Nov 9, 2012 18:47
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Hummer Driving human being posted:Even I don't believe it will go to $900 anytime soon, but I do think if you give it about 6-9 months it will be back in the 650s* or so. It is possible to hold stocks for more than a couple of weeks, contrary to popular opinion. You know, (not you, specifically) you don't have to invest with your gut. Nate Silver proved to everyone on a grand stage that statistics and mathematical probabilities actually do work. If you want to know the actual odds of Apple moving to $650 or $900 or pretty much any price, you only have to look as far as the options market. According to the options market, there's something like a 40% chance Apple will hit $650 between now and April. There's a 2% chance it will hit $900.
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Nov 9, 2012 19:21
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tiananman posted:You know, (not you, specifically) you don't have to invest with your gut. Nate Silver proved to everyone on a grand stage that statistics and mathematical probabilities actually do work. If you want to know the actual odds of Apple moving to $650 or $900 or pretty much any price, you only have to look as far as the options market. Am buying AAPL December calls 595-620.
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Nov 9, 2012 19:27
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tiananman posted:You know, (not you, specifically) you don't have to invest with your gut. Nate Silver proved to everyone on a grand stage that statistics and mathematical probabilities actually do work. If you want to know the actual odds of Apple moving to $650 or $900 or pretty much any price, you only have to look as far as the options market. Statistics and mathematical probabilities lose a lot of predictive value when you're talking about a system as complex as the stock market. This is why you won't see academic papers demonstrating that TA and FA work reliably, because they don't.
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Nov 9, 2012 19:32
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Silvers message isnt that maths work, its that sifting through all the data and applying it carefully and correctly works and can be tested by checking your %'s. If it isnt working you need to re-evaluate your method. Nassim Taleb also brought this up only in a more abstract way and a slightly different focus. He is still extremely relevant.
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Nov 9, 2012 19:46
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Comparing Silver's work in baseball and politics to the markets is nice but doesn't exactly fit. There are a lot more long tails in prices. I can't stand that charlatan Taleb. He advocates not using models at all which is insane.
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Nov 9, 2012 20:04
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Welp. I lost a shitton of money over the last 3 days, and sold out at the worst possible time. I'm done. I started getting into this 6-9 months ago when I came upon a windfall after selling my company and this "fiscal cliff" bullshit just cost me 1.5% of it. A few pages back here I was saying I was going to sit in cash and I was stupid enough to not listen to my own advice. I did some modeling and entered into a fairly conservative, well backtested position and still managed to get hosed since correlations all went to one on everything I was in (bond funds included!) The events of the last 3 days were unprecedented drawdown-wise in my backtest from the last 4 years for the position I was in. I'm tired of having to watch the market and being in a position where my own "judgement" fails and causes me to lose money. The game feels rigged and my luck is horrible. Last month I took out a conservative put option position on a railroad and lo and behold a *railroad stock* plummeted 20%. I'm closing my accounts and will face the risk of inflation eating away at my net worth. It's just not worth the stress. Good luck and godspeed everyone! edit: jesus, at least i can take solace in not being someone holding GRPN today. christ. nebby fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Nov 9, 2012 |
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Nov 9, 2012 20:14
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Comparing Silver's work in baseball and politics to the markets is nice but doesn't exactly fit. There are a lot more long tails in prices. This. Silver does a good job but honestly somewhere in the mid-30's of states have voted the same way since 92. Modeling elections data is fairly easy. The difficult part comes in reading poll data from places like Florida and Ohio which are coin flips and places like Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina which recently flipped. But when you cut it down to 10-15 states the analysis is pretty easy.
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Nov 9, 2012 20:20
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evilwaldo posted:This. Sounds like you should be doing that for a living, since so much else of the nation's media was pretty much wrong in their predictions.
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Nov 9, 2012 20:24
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FlashBangBob posted:Sounds like you should be doing that for a living, since so much else of the nation's media was pretty much wrong in their predictions. The media has to make the election interesting. They learned that an uninterested electorate means less voters and nobody watches TV election night or pays big money for advertising. That is the reason they focus on polls, which are bs, when we elect the President based on the Electoral College. But they eat it up every four years.
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Nov 9, 2012 20:28
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They are paid to have an opinion, not to be right.
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Nov 9, 2012 20:35
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evilwaldo posted:This. Yeah, I really wish Silver would get into the markets. I think he would add some cool insight... nebby posted:Welp. I lost a shitton of money over the last 3 days, and sold out at the worst possible time. I'm done. I started getting into this 6-9 months ago when I came upon a windfall after selling my company and this "fiscal cliff" bullshit just cost me 1.5% of it. A few pages back here I was saying I was going to sit in cash and I was stupid enough to not listen to my own advice. I did some modeling and entered into a fairly conservative, well backtested position and still managed to get hosed since correlations all went to one on everything I was in (bond funds included!) The events of the last 3 days were unprecedented drawdown-wise in my backtest from the last 4 years for the position I was in. gently caress man, I know how you feel. Two summers ago I was long oil futures into the announcement that the IEA was releasing reserves and lost a lot of capital. I got caught up in the whipsaw enviroment and it scared me the poo poo out of me and kept me from the markets for a while. Definitely come back though. To paraphrase Ed Seykota: markets are the same as they always were, they're always changing.
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Nov 9, 2012 20:50
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a lovely poster posted:Statistics and mathematical probabilities lose a lot of predictive value when you're talking about a system as complex as the stock market. This is why you won't see academic papers demonstrating that TA and FA work reliably, because they don't. TA is completely off the table, and I say that as someone whose research is in high frequency asset pricing.
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Nov 9, 2012 20:55
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| # ? May 13, 2024 22:03 |
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:Definitely come back though. To paraphrase Ed Seykota: markets are the same as they always were, they're always changing. It's really scary that simple *capital preservation* right now is a tall order. I don't trust bond prices or the yield curve. Gold's in a bubble. Equities are completely manipulated by HFT. REITs, mREITs, and basically all other income oriented funds are over-leveraged and have insane P/Es because people are chasing yield now. Correlations change between asset classes change every other week. Bid/ask spreads will kill you if you have to trade frequently to keep apace in hedging with the correlations, and even then things change in front of you anyway as the hedge funds take pennies off each transaction. To top it off, conservative, sane investing (ie dividends/long term gains) is going to be disincentivized come January so it's only going to get worse. My fear of extraordinary inflation drove me into the markets but at this point I'm willing to just take that one tail risk on in exchange for not having to worry about the countless other things that could go wrong in these constantly changing markets. There are fortunes to be made but its not for me. I feel like I've aged 5 years in the last couple of months trying to manage all this poo poo. nebby fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Nov 9, 2012 |
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Nov 9, 2012 20:57
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