Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Tias: May 25, 2008; Pictured: the patron saint of internet political arguments (probably)

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Shine on, you heroes :unsmith:

Really glad to see people aren't taking this lying down!

# ? Nov 23, 2012 19:31

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# ? Jun 8, 2024 00:54

Wirth1000: May 12, 2010; #essereFerrari

Are there any hard numbers on Morsi's support base? Pro-Morsi protestors and the like.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 19:38

Shadoer: Aug 31, 2011; Zoe Quinn is one of many women targeted by the Gamergate harassment campaign.

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Wirth1000 posted:

Are there any hard numbers on Morsi's support base? Pro-Morsi protestors and the like.

Well in the 2012 election, the first round of voting gave him only 24.78%. Then in the second round he got just 51.73%. So I wouldn't say his base is all that monolithic.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt_Presidential_Elections_2012

# ? Nov 23, 2012 19:41

OwlBot 2000: Jun 1, 2009

So what's Morsi done that anybody who wanted to fix Egypt wouldn't do? That judiciary wasn't some kind of neutral representative of justice; they were hand-picked by Mubarak and have shown bias toward the police who killed protesters.

Seems he's in the right, whether or not he's following the letter of the law. If he decides not to hand back power after fixing the judiciary then maybe you'll have something to complain about, but for now this seems necessary to complete the revolution.

Though I like Sabbahy's stances more than Morsi's, I was surprised to learn he supported SCAF basically shutting down parliament. He seems weak-willed and servile, and the Egyptian people need real leadership for a real revolution.

OwlBot 2000 fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Nov 23, 2012

# ? Nov 23, 2012 19:58

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

OwlBot 2000 posted:

So what's Morsi done that anybody who wanted to fix Egypt wouldn't do? That judiciary wasn't some kind of neutral representative of justice; they were hand-picked by Mubarak and have shown bias toward the police who killed protesters.

Seems he's in the right, whether or not he's following the letter of the law. If he decides not to hand back power after fixing the judiciary then maybe you'll have something to complain about, but for now this seems necessary to complete the revolution.

Though I like Sabbahy's stances more than Morsi's, I was surprised to learn he supported SCAF basically shutting down parliament. He seems weak-willed and servile, and the Egyptian people need real leadership for a real revolution.

"Democracy is hard so we should just give up."

# ? Nov 23, 2012 20:06

OwlBot 2000: Jun 1, 2009

I'll take Morsi's "dictatorship" over SCAF/Mubarak's "democracy" any day. Those judges and their rulings were corrupt and illegitimate, and if Morsi can replace them and then (this is the hard part) give up the new powers after he's done then he'll have done a great thing. If he decides to just keep all this power permanently and turn Egypt into a theocracy then yeah, that sucks, but to pretend that electing a new president means Egypt is a functioning democracy accountable to the people is just silly.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 20:20

V. Illych L.: Apr 11, 2008; ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

I actually sympathise somewhat with Owlbot's sentiment here, but there's been a variety of these in themselves relatively minor incidents which makes it more worrying.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 20:33

sexpig by night: Sep 8, 2011; by Azathoth

The issue is that in this case they already had a perverted democracy because a cadre of sore losers was making it very clear they were going to stymie any efforts the administration made, and while that's par for the course in any nation, when the issue is 'let's get a constitution' you kinda can't let that happen.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 20:34

Ham: Apr 30, 2009; You're BALD!

Glitterbomber posted:

The issue is that in this case they already had a perverted democracy because a cadre of sore losers was making it very clear they were going to stymie any efforts the administration made, and while that's par for the course in any nation, when the issue is 'let's get a constitution' you kinda can't let that happen.

So a President chosen by 52% of the electorate should be allowed to draft a binding, permanent constitution based solely on his and his party's viewpoint?

# ? Nov 23, 2012 21:29

cafel: Mar 29, 2010; This post is hurting the economy!

OwlBot 2000 posted:

I'll take Morsi's "dictatorship" over SCAF/Mubarak's "democracy" any day. Those judges and their rulings were corrupt and illegitimate, and if Morsi can replace them and then (this is the hard part) give up the new powers after he's done then he'll have done a great thing. If he decides to just keep all this power permanently and turn Egypt into a theocracy then yeah, that sucks, but to pretend that electing a new president means Egypt is a functioning democracy accountable to the people is just silly.

I feel where you coming from, but the problem is it sets a precedent. Even if he did give back all the power, if he gets away with it he's pretty well established that if the President wants to invalidate the other branches he can. Given time this precedent would probably start to fade, but his next several successors might have the opportunity to do the same thing and not be so noble about it. The only thing that holds democracies together is the strength of the institutions and the inertia of tradition. In Egypt Morsi is pretty clearly showing that the first doesn't exist and in the process is kind of loving up the second right off the bat.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 21:30

sexpig by night: Sep 8, 2011; by Azathoth

Ham posted:

So a President chosen by 52% of the electorate should be allowed to draft a binding, permanent constitution based solely on his and his party's viewpoint?

By this same token, should the entire process be able to be ground to a halt for political maneuvering?

I don't agree with the degree in which this happened, but yes, the person who won the election should be able to have control over such a crucial thing like this.

I'm not ready to label this as some dictator style power grab, I'll have to see what comes of it. The protesters have valid fears, and every right to express them, though.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 21:35

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Glitterbomber posted:

By this same token, should the entire process be able to be ground to a halt for political maneuvering?

I don't agree with the degree in which this happened, but yes, the person who won the election should be able to have control over such a crucial thing like this.

I'm not ready to label this as some dictator style power grab, I'll have to see what comes of it. The protesters have valid fears, and every right to express them, though.

All of that could be handled by a constitutional convention and by moving bills through whatever government was created in the aftermath. Morsi took the easy way out, instead of doing the hard legislative work he's declared himself a dictator and set an awful precedent for Egypt. And the idea that Egyptians should just sit back and pray for another Washington or Cincinnatus is frankly insulting.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 21:47

sexpig by night: Sep 8, 2011; by Azathoth

Zeroisanumber posted:

All of that could be handled by a constitutional convention and by moving bills through whatever government was created in the aftermath. Morsi took the easy way out, instead of doing the hard legislative work he's declared himself a dictator and set an awful precedent for Egypt. And the idea that Egyptians should just sit back and pray for another Washington or Cincinnatus is frankly insulting.

Did I say 'sit back'? I literally said in that post you quoted protesters have the right to express their fears, and made it clear that I was speaking for my own, personal, view of the situation.

The issue with the convention is you're looking at it through the lens of how it happened in America, where we had all just won a war and, though there were many factions, there wasn't the sting of 'why is this fucker in charge?' The Egyptian process was being hamstrung by people with nothing but political reasons to be sure their opponent can't claim victory.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 21:55

FeculentWizardTits: Aug 31, 2001

Glitterbomber posted:

The Egyptian process was being hamstrung by people with nothing but political reasons to be sure their opponent can't claim victory.

Some pretty disparate groups have withdrawn from the constituent assembly, so much so that I think it's difficult to paint it as being entirely driven by political maneuvering. The representatives for the journalists, farmers, and Christians recently withdrew, along with many of the leftists, secularists, and youth reps. While it's certainly possible that it's just political grandstanding, to me it says that the Islamists aren't being terribly accommodating to the views of other groups; statements made by the folks who've withdrawn attest to this, though if you approach it from the viewpoint that it's all political posturing then it's easy to write it all off as something they would obviously say.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 22:45

sexpig by night: Sep 8, 2011; by Azathoth

Spakstik posted:

Some pretty disparate groups have withdrawn from the constituent assembly, so much so that I think it's difficult to paint it as being entirely driven by political maneuvering. The representatives for the journalists, farmers, and Christians recently withdrew, along with many of the leftists, secularists, and youth reps. While it's certainly possible that it's just political grandstanding, to me it says that the Islamists aren't being terribly accommodating to the views of other groups; statements made by the folks who've withdrawn attest to this, though if you approach it from the viewpoint that it's all political posturing then it's easy to write it all off as something they would obviously say.

That's actually a very fair point, thank you. I do feel that politics was a major factor, but it was wrong of me to paint everyone who withdrew as having that motive.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 22:46

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

More loot from the 46th Regiment, this time a T-55 and at least 3 artillery pieces

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7JJ3NSJOX0

It does really seem like this equipment will be a major boon to the opposition operating around Aleppo, making it even easier to capture more bases and checkpoints and in turn more equipment.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 22:52

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Brown Moses posted:

More loot from the 46th Regiment, this time a T-55 and at least 3 artillery pieces

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7JJ3NSJOX0

It does really seem like this equipment will be a major boon to the opposition operating around Aleppo, making it even easier to capture more bases and checkpoints and in turn more equipment.

And Assad should have good fears where you get the same snowball effect that was seen in Libya.

As opposition takes over more and more equipment depots they start to get exponentially stronger while the government forces get weaker over time or look to open talks to avoid being stuck on the losing side.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 23:18

Red7: Sep 10, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

More loot from the 46th Regiment, this time a T-55 and at least 3 artillery pieces

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7JJ3NSJOX0

It does really seem like this equipment will be a major boon to the opposition operating around Aleppo, making it even easier to capture more bases and checkpoints and in turn more equipment.

Moses, are you plotting the location of these finds when its possible? If so, is it available anywhere?

# ? Nov 23, 2012 23:24

ughhhh: Oct 17, 2012

While i understand this is supposed to be an I/P free zone, i would like to post this article here to give a broader context of the current assault on Gaza and the Arab spring:

What means this war?

quote:

Response in the Arab region

Anger and shame in Egypt at the complicity of the Mubarak regime in the oppression of the Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, was at the centre of the movement that tore him down. It was the Al Aqsa Palestinian intifada a decade ago which led to a generation of young activists breaking the stranglehold of the Egyptian security state and taking to the streets for the first time in many years. Rage intensified at Israel�s Operation Cast Lead in 2008-09, during which Mubarak sealed the border with Gaza while � let us never forget � pledging along with every other Arab president and prince undying love for �our Palestinian brothers�. A fresh generation faced the ugly triptych of neo-liberal dislocation, national humiliation at their country�s prostration to imperialism and a police state viciously repressive in proportion to its declining legitimacy. That powered the great upsurge of protests and strikes that went on to topple Mubarak, in the wake of Tunisia�s Ben Ali. Underlying those movements are deep shifts in Arab societies, and in the configuration of imperial power. It is not only that these transformations are processes, rather than simply events (a journalistic commonplace now). They are likely to be drawn out over many years. Many Arab historians identify the start of a new epoch in the region. That�s why it is a mistake � understandable from those who continue to experience declining living standards and repression in the Middle East � to imagine that what Western journalists called the Arab Spring has ended, to be replaced not with a glorious summer but by a seemingly permanent winter of dispossession. Equally, to imagine that the movement would simply surge forward and rapidly transform everything, or to exaggerate what has changed, is to underestimate the resources of the other side, their tenacity and the critical political junctures the movement continues to face. Operation Pillar of Cloud poses one such juncture for those fighting for democracy in Egypt, Syria and elsewhere: is this to be done alongside those bombing Gaza, or against them? The answer from the popular masses in Syria and in every Arab state is already known and is resounding. But the same people know from their own bitter history that unfortunately popular sentiment and principle are not automatically reflected in the politics of those who rise to the top � in fact, they rarely have been.

Compared with 15 years ago, the position of Israel and of its Western backers is demonstrably weaker. Then Israel could look to two treaty-allies on its frontline � Jordan and Egypt � an ongoing, though faltering, occupation of southern Lebanon, and a Syria that was contained, almost a Cold War relic which had recently joined the US-led assault on Iraq, then the strongest Arab state.

A lot has changed, but much has not. Saudi Arabia (the oldest US Arab ally), Qatar and the regional capitalist hub represented by the Gulf Cooperation Council states have been pivotal in muting the response to Israel�s aggression on Gaza. Naturally, there have been words. It is easily forgotten, however, that strong words came from all of them, and from Egypt�s rulers at the time, in 1982 over the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, over the first intifada, the second intifada, the siege of President Arafat in Ramallah, Operation Cast Lead� No Arab leader can do anything other than rhetorically boast he is with the Palestinians �until Jerusalem�. The emir of Qatar promises reconstruction aid for Gaza, while hosting the US Centcom base, a keystone of US, and by extension, Israeli military might � which is� flattening Gaza. They cannot be judged on words. At all. Ever.

Their actions are to suppress, cajole or crush the militant heart of the movement which is best exemplified in Egypt. So they have systematically repressed the movement in Bahrain over the last 12 months, with the full support of the West. British prime minister David Cameron earlier this month toured Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. He was selling arms and grovelling his apologies to the House of Saud for a rare, critical British parliamentary report on the total absence of human rights in the kingdom. He cemented the recent military agreement with Bahrain, home to the US Fifth Fleet. All this while Cameron and the kings posed as champions of democracy in Libya and Syria. The nauseating hypocrisy is summed up by Britain�s William Hague. Six days into the assault on Gaza, which as a great friend of Likud he backs above and beyond the call of his office, he proclaimed that the British government would now recognise the latest umbrella group of the Syrian opposition. It�s the one which the West � Britain and France above all � has with Gulf allies spent months ensuring is safely politically aligned. If they get their way, the fruit of the appalling fighting in Syria will be a government still more amenable to the West. We expect the Western media and politicians to fall silent about their double standards. The movement in solidarity with the Palestinian people and with the mass of Arabs cannot.

Wiping Palestine off the map of public concern as thoroughly as it was wiped off the geographical map in 1948 has been key to Western and Gulf efforts to redirect and redefine the �Arab Spring� over the last 12 months. That has gone hand in hand with the direct suppression of the movement in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, and with the effort to usurp and bend political forces from Libya to Syria and Egypt. The strategy has had some success. Until now. Until the renewed Israeli aggression on Gaza, which provides a moment in which the central issues are again clarified.

The process is concentrated in Jordan. Last week tens of thousands of protesters broke a taboo and the law by calling for the fall of King Abdullah (the monarch, who rules by sole virtue of being his father�s son but who with no hint of irony said last year that Syria�s Bashar Al Assad lacked �democratic legitimacy�). The protests and strikes over fuel hikes in Jordan began on the eve of Operation Pillar of Cloud. Israel has an embassy in Jordan, where two thirds of the population are expelled Palestinians. The tripartite treaty and security arrangements between Israel, Jordan and (still) Egypt are central to Tel Aviv�s capacity to hold down the Palestinians. Fear of an Egyptian-style confluence of rising social discontent and heartfelt support for the Palestinians led Abdullah to cancel a visit to London in order to manage the crisis on Saturday as protests intensified. Part of his arsenal of response was, along with other Arab leaders, to call for a ceasefire and to issue a verbal fusillade against Netanyahu. He and they were licensed to do so. Words. Words � while the embassy of Israel and the mutual treaty stayed in place. Words while Jordan�s secret police host the CIA to train those approved by Israel to serve in the Palestinian Authority�s security forces, containing the incipient Palestinian spring in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

I would like to mention the last part of the article which is about us (Those of us who live in 'the heart of empire' as the author puts it) and specifically why the Arab spring is so important and vital to our own struggles.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 23:39

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Red7 posted:

Moses, are you plotting the location of these finds when its possible? If so, is it available anywhere?

It's not really possible for me do that as it would take up a massive amount of time, although it's the sort of thing I'm sure the ISW is keeping an eye on. A couple of people I know are tracking reports of shot down aircraft and surface to air missile videos on separate maps, I'll see if I can find those links.

Collecting information from Syria is a pretty time consuming process, so I've got to really priortise what I'm looking for. Fortunately I now have lots of people who send me all sorts of links to various things they think will interest me, so I get a lot of stuff that way now, but I also go through my Syrian Channel Listings once a day, now totally about 400 channels, and look for anything that stands out. I've got various categorised folders I save any interesting links to, as I've found there's always videos I wish I had kept months after they were first uploaded to Youtube.

I've got a Foreign Policy article coming up soon about the DIY weapons used by both sides in the conflict, and my vast collection of DIY weapon videos has given me plenty to work with. Next I think I'll work on an article on how activist videos of UXO evidence has allowed me to track escalations in the Syrian air war, with videos showing examples of each type of bomb used, and what events on the ground preceded their use. For example, OFAB 100-120s first appeared by L-39s were being used in Aleppo after fighting started there, then we saw cluster bomblets appear in large numbers after the main Idlib highway was captured by the opposition, and now after recent opposition successes we're seeing incendiary cluster bombs being used.

# ? Nov 23, 2012 23:43

Pedrophile: Feb 25, 2011; by angerbot

So it now appears the opposition finally has momentum, anyone have any good articles on a Post-Assad Syria transition? I don't think the alawites in damascus are going to come out of this unscathed.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 04:21

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

ughhhh posted:

While i understand this is supposed to be an I/P free zone, i would like to post this article here to give a broader context of the current assault on Gaza and the Arab spring:

What means this war?

I would like to mention the last part of the article which is about us (Those of us who live in 'the heart of empire' as the author puts it) and specifically why the Arab spring is so important and vital to our own struggles.

I'm just not sure I can agree with this framing. It was certainly a factor, but the cause and inspiration?

quote:

Anger and shame in Egypt at the complicity of the Mubarak regime in the oppression of the Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, was at the centre of the movement that tore him down. It was the Al Aqsa Palestinian intifada a decade ago which led to a generation of young activists breaking the stranglehold of the Egyptian security state and taking to the streets for the first time in many years.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 07:26

Wubbles: Oct 30, 2011

Ham posted:

Tahrir square minutes ago

That's all anti-Morsi protesters, it really swelled from this morning!

Welp

Protesters have been dispersed with tear gas, ostensibly.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 07:48

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Good analysis, as always, from Nathan Brown on Morsi's actions.

http://www.arabist.net/blog/2012/11/22/analysis-morsis-auto-golpe.html

# ? Nov 24, 2012 07:49

ughhhh: Oct 17, 2012

Xandu posted:

I'm just not sure I can agree with this framing. It was certainly a factor, but the cause and inspiration?

just quickly, the second sentence answers your question i think. From my experience working with Egyptian comrades, its been that many of them started off participating in politics (at least radical politics) was through Palestinian solidarity activism. Primarily due to labor/political organizing being too dangerous, while activism based around solidarity work was still possible. From there networks and experience was made possible (for the youth at least).

But if you go further, the author is trying to talk about the nexus of imperialism and capitalism that becomes the lens through which many of the revolutionaries in Egypt (and elsewhere) are working through.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 09:02

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

That's fair, though it does require adopting an unfortunately narrow view of revolutionaries to activists/labor organizers, which almost assuredly does not make up the majority of those who participated.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 09:23

Killer robot: Sep 6, 2010; I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!; Pillbug

Xandu posted:

That's fair, though it does require adopting an unfortunately narrow view of revolutionaries to activists/labor organizers, which almost assuredly does not make up the majority of those who participated.

And the further problem is that it makes for easily circular logic. If you use narrow definition of "revolutionaries", whatever it might be, it's going to shape whatever revolutions happen into a narrative of what that particular subset cared about, and forget everyone else involved.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 10:16

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Probably significant considering recent events in that region of Syria

quote:

Syrian rebels ready final assault on Sheikh Suleiman base

Rebels who have besieged the Sheikh Suleiman army base for nearly two months are confident it will fall in days, giving them full control of a swathe of northwest Syria from Aleppo to the Turkish border.

Their optimism has been buoyed by a steady stream of defectors from the ranks of the several hundred troops defending the strategic base, the last major garrison still in army hands between the border and Syria's northern metropolis.

"We have been besieging the base for nearly two months, the 300 or 400 soldiers entrenched inside are in a desperate situation," rebel commander Sheikh Tawfik told AFP.

"Many have deserted. Just this morning five more escaped � they are with us now," beams the bearded commander, whose authority is now unquestioned in the nearby town of Qabtan al-Jabal.

The base sprawls over nearly 200 hectares of rocky hills about 25 kilometers west of Aleppo.

Sheikh Tawfiq says according to the deserters, morale among rank and file conscripts is at rock bottom and it is only the officers, mostly drawn from the same Alawite minority as President Bashar al-Assad, who prevent a full surrender.

"Every soldier in the base understands that the end of the regime is near. They are just waiting for an opportunity to lay down their arms, but their Alawite officers prevent them," he said.

"The fall of the Sheikh Suleiman base is only a matter of days," according to Sheikh Tawfik.

Earlier this week, insurgents took control of another military camp in the region, Base 46 nearer to Aleppo. Nearly 300 soldiers were killed, according to the rebels, and a large cache of arms and ammunition seized.

Now rebels are counting on the capture of Sheikh Suleiman to give them full control of the countryside west of Aleppo and boost to their forces inside the commercial capital where fighting has reached stalemate after five months of deadly urban combat.

"The day Sheikh Suleiman falls, all of western Aleppo will finally be liberated. Give it 45 days and Aleppo city will fall too," said Sheikh Tawfik.

For now, the rebels are thwarted by the imposing defense system of the garrison, whose soldiers have weapons of every kind at their disposal. The base continues to be supplied by helicopter, while warplanes regularly bomb rebel positions.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a key rights watchdog, reported 25 rebels killed earlier this week in an abortive attack on the base, most by anti-personnel mines and air strikes.

The attack was led by fighters from the jihadist Al-Nusra Front, a rebel source told AFP, confirming the death of a dozen fighters.

As with Base 46, the gunners of Sheikh Suleiman have been bombarding the surrounding towns and villages to ward off any renewed assault. Twenty rockets struck nearby Atareb on Friday.

The tenacity of the defense has raised all kinds of speculation. A deserting conscript told AFP that it contained clandestine scientific research whose purpose was unknown even to the rank and file.

The prize of the bases' huge arsenal has stoked rivalries among the multiple rebel groups laying siege, some fighting under the banner of the mainstream Free Syrian Army (FSA) and others under the flag of Islam.

Sheikh Tawfik's Noureddin Zinki battalion and Bayt al-Ansar battalion both fight under the banner of the FSA but other groups, including the Al-Nusra Front, do not.

It seems if the equipment captured from the 46th Regiment reaches that base then it'll only be a matter of time. It's on thing to fight against guys with machine guns and RPGs, another when they've got tanks, heavy artillery, and surface to air missiles. It's only 15km north of the 46th Regiment base, so not far to travel.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 14:37 on Nov 24, 2012

# ? Nov 24, 2012 14:33

Pedrophile: Feb 25, 2011; by angerbot

Yeah once you have a decent mechanized army attacking fortified check points should become a lot easier.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 16:31

Ham: Apr 30, 2009; You're BALD!

The Judges' Union in Egypt just declared a general strike in all courts and DA offices in protest of Morsi's declaration. They've been making speeches against him all day, including the Attorney General replaced by Morsi's decree. They actually talked about fearing for their lives from assassination...

Meanwhile in Tahrir Square, it really looks just like the 25th Jan. 2011 protests, with the notable exception of islamists. The protesters consist mostly of liberals/leftists.

Ham fucked around with this message at 19:23 on Nov 24, 2012

# ? Nov 24, 2012 19:20

Ham: Apr 30, 2009; You're BALD!

Another group of judges, called the "Judges for Egypt" have said that they support Morsi's declaration and would be willing to monitor the referendum on the constitution and the coming? parliamentary elections free of charge. These guys are against the official body of judges but I don't know their full history. While some of the official judges' leadership can be considered Mubarak cronies, this group was against Mubarak from the start.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 20:20

Paul MaudDib: May 3, 2006; TEAM NVIDIA:
FORUM POLICE

Ham posted:

So a President chosen by 52% of the electorate should be allowed to draft a binding, permanent constitution based solely on his and his party's viewpoint?

It wouldn't be based solely on Islamist viewpoints if all the other parties hadn't taken their ball and gone home. If you don't participate in the process, no, you don't get a say, that's how politics work. I don't like having yet another religious state, it really sucks that secularists were children at the exact point where they could have had the most long-term effect, but that's their choice.

Ask leftists in the US how not voting works for them.

Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Nov 24, 2012

# ? Nov 24, 2012 20:47

Paul MaudDib: May 3, 2006; TEAM NVIDIA:
FORUM POLICE

cafel posted:

I feel where you coming from, but the problem is it sets a precedent. Even if he did give back all the power, if he gets away with it he's pretty well established that if the President wants to invalidate the other branches he can. Given time this precedent would probably start to fade, but his next several successors might have the opportunity to do the same thing and not be so noble about it. The only thing that holds democracies together is the strength of the institutions and the inertia of tradition. In Egypt Morsi is pretty clearly showing that the first doesn't exist and in the process is kind of loving up the second right off the bat.

Presumably the constitution they're writing would block this. The entire problem spring from the fact that they don't have a constitution yet and pro-Mubarak forces are exploiting this to grind things to a halt. If there were a constitution the judiciary wouldn't be able to dissolve the parliament. If there were a constitution the judiciary wouldn't have a constitution drafting committee to dismiss. And meanwhile you've got the military backing up all this poo poo.

I don't particularly like the authoritarian trend he's taking recently but at this point I can understand why he would need to assert more authority until the constitution gets drafted. If he keeps the decree in place past the ratification of the constitution, then that's my gently caress-off threshold.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 20:55

OwlBot 2000: Jun 1, 2009

Paul MaudDib posted:

Ask leftists in the US how not voting works for them.

About the same as voting, it turns out.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 21:02

Ham: Apr 30, 2009; You're BALD!

Paul MaudDib posted:

It wouldn't be based solely on Islamist viewpoints if all the other parties hadn't taken their ball and gone home. If you don't participate in the process, no, you don't get a say, that's how politics work. I don't like having yet another religious state, it really sucks that secularists were children at the exact point where they could have had the most long-term effect, but that's their choice.

Ask leftists in the US how not voting works for them.

Why are you assuming the few non-Islamist members of the committee had some input in the process? They had zero input, as their suggestions were thrown out the door by the islamist majority.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 21:05

Sil: Jan 4, 2007

Glitterbomber posted:

The issue is that in this case they already had a perverted democracy because a cadre of sore losers was making it very clear they were going to stymie any efforts the administration made, and while that's par for the course in any nation, when the issue is 'let's get a constitution' you kinda can't let that happen.

There's a beautiful quote from the Italian novel The Leopard, in which an old-time aristocrat endorsing the unification of Italy in a republican form says ~~In order for everything to stay the same, everything must change~~.

Which is to say. Mubarak is gone. But. Everyone that benefitted from Mubarak's regime is still right there. If the country now transitions to a standard, slow to change democracy, these people have just embedded their privilege within the democratic/capitalist system.

If you look at Eastern Europe you see something very similar happening after the fall of communism. The new capitalist/democratic leaders of the countries in the area(even 20 years later) are.... former members of those countries' Nomenklaturas and/or secret police services.

If the people are satisfied by the death of the figurehead, then they will enjoy the relative social security of a democratic state, and the horrible economic oppression of crony capitalism. The revolution in Egypt is either far from over, or it's already dead.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 21:06

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

EA Worldview has some information about a helicopter base that's reportedly been captured 15km outside of Damascus, with the opposition claiming

quote:

1 T72 tank captured.
1 BMP armored troop transport captured.
2 regime tanks were damaged.
2 armored personnel carriers were damaged.
50 prisoners were taken.
10s of Assad soldiers were killed or injured.
The FSA controls a nearby early warning radar, part of the air base, and the FSA is taking the fight to the other half of the base.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 22:23

I see that there.: Aug 6, 2011; by Y Kant Ozma Post

Brown Moses posted:

EA Worldview has some information about a helicopter base that's reportedly been captured 15km outside of Damascus, with the opposition claiming

What do the rebels do with captured tanks?

From a minimalist perspective, do they use them as artillery until the ammo is expended and then advance them until any secondary guns are expended, then use them as armored forward fire-points, or do they tend to capture them and just kind of run-amok in local action until expended or booby-trapped?

# ? Nov 24, 2012 22:52

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I see that there. posted:

What do the rebels do with captured tanks?

From a minimalist perspective, do they use them as artillery until the ammo is expended and then advance them until any secondary guns are expended, then use them as armored forward fire-points, or do they tend to capture them and just kind of run-amok in local action until expended or booby-trapped?

From what I've seen they use them more for artillery, but they have captured tank ammo, so generally they won't have a problem in that regard. It does seem to me they use them as part of planned attacks, rather than day to day use.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 22:58

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# ? Jun 8, 2024 00:54

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Brown Moses posted:

From what I've seen they use them more for artillery, but they have captured tank ammo, so generally they won't have a problem in that regard. It does seem to me they use them as part of planned attacks, rather than day to day use.

Which is pretty logical because running tanks is a logistical nightmare. They burn a large amount of fuel due to their weight, you have to keep them supplied with ammo, and they require a large amount of parts (tracks wear fast, particularly on Russian/Chinese tanks). Not all that well suited to day-to-day operation by an insurgency.

# ? Nov 24, 2012 23:10

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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