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Iunnrais
Jul 25, 2007

It's gaelic.

slowbeef posted:

No it isn't. Maybe it's what you've been saying, but there's a ton of theories out there that all have Togami just happening to crawl under the table for no good reason except "he somehow saw the knife under the table."

Most of the theories I've been seeing here are "he followed X person under the table" (the "Hey what are you doing" thing). That's hardly no good reason.

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Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

HiHo ChiRho posted:

This is one facet I'm not sold on. There is an assumption being made based on how the blood appears on the knife, which is perfectly reasonable, but then we would have to assume that the blood splatter in the area by the knife should be consistent, but there appears to be more blood on the knife than in the immediate area where it was dropped. I have a feeling it was in someones hands during the attack.
The issue is that there's another big pointy weapon (the skewer) missing. Any "the knife is actually the murder weapon" theory needs to come up with some other use for the skewer, because that's not a clue you'd drop for no reason.

Aston
Nov 19, 2007

Okay
Okay
Okay
Okay
Okay

tiistai posted:

I'd bet on it. The question will be where exactly can you enter the crawlspace. The toilet is looking suspicious.

From the pictures of the cabin, it looks like you could probably get under there from outside as well. Just a thought.

TKMobile
Apr 30, 2009
I think QuarkJets has it. Tl;DR version: during the party preparations someone saw Nagito set up the knife and rig the AC; figuring out what he planned, they then hid a skewer and planned to stab Nagito from under the floorboards... but got Crime-Stopper Togami instead when he pursued Nagito.

Yes, there's still the question of how they got under the floor and maybe how they knew of any murderin' plans to begin with, but really, that's the simplest, cleanest explanation for all of this thus far. The killer had to be lying in wait directly beneath the floor under the table; there's no logical way to explain that someone just HAPPENED to be down int the crawlspace due to a twist of fate (I don't give a drat how clumsy Mikan is, everyone else would have HEARD her fall through the loving floor if that occurred.) That's it. There's no accomplice team up going on here, nor was someone skittering around beneath the floor like a giant deranged spider just waiting for a golden opportunity to skewer someone, and there's no complex situation going that gets Togami under the table, much less anything about him planting the knife himself.

Hanamura, Kuzryuu (though the most red-herringest of them all), Peko and Nanami are the big suspects here, but until we find Peko's untouched dinner plate and/or a secret passage in the bathroom/kitchen/outside the lodge/wherever, there's still some missing clues to place who did this, but the how's been established.

TKMobile fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Mar 1, 2013

Armanky
Feb 15, 2013

"Kissing is sex."
-George Costanza

Irony Be My Shield posted:

The issue is that there's another big pointy weapon (the skewer) missing. Any "the knife is actually the murder weapon" theory needs to come up with some other use for the skewer, because that's not a clue you'd drop for no reason.

While I do think the skewer was used, I wouldn't put it past Dangan Ronpa to bring up something like that and have it wind up being a red herring. My point is, that logic isn't sound enough to dismiss so many possible theories. For all we know, Hanamura just sucks at counting.

mangoman321
Apr 10, 2009

Irony Be My Shield posted:

The floorboards theory does kindof tie together a lot of the evidence we've got though (floorboards being spaced out, knife probably not being the murder weapon, lack of drag marks, stabs underneath the body in a kindof random pattern, missing skewer). It's hard to tie all this evidence together in a meaningful way otherwise.

I have a suggestion for how the culprit could plan this without an explicit accomplice: Togami did plan the blackout in advance afterall. His intention was to create a fake murder scene with him as the victim (using the glowy knife). He did this because he wanted to see everyone's reactions - would they start suspecting each other? Would any of them crack and lose it under pressure? This would be valuable information, and since he was the only one with nightvision goggles and any form of weaponry it would be reasonable to think that no-one could commit murder in the dark.

He needed someone to help him with this plan by hiding the knife and setting up the blackout. That person would probably be Nagito since he got in early to clean up (also if he is actually Naegi then Togami would have good reason to trust him). Nagito's role may also have extended to getting everyone else to leave the room so that Togami had more time to fake his death. Incidentally, note that Nagito only acts shocked after Monobear announces the death, not after they find the body.

However, someone overheard them talking about this plan. They stole a skewer from the kitchen (Hanamura is a good suspect due to his failure to react to Mikan's fall and his access to the skewers) and hid it under the hut. They then located the table (easy to find due to the glowing knife under it) and hid underneath. When the lights went out and they heard Togami crawl under, they stabbed wildly at him a bunch of times then ran off.

There's nothing really conclusive in favour of this theory but I think it covers most of the evidence pretty well.

This is pretty much the theory I've been tossing around in my head for a while now. I posted earlier the possibility that Togami and Nagito were working together to fake his death to see how the others reacted, and now that we have a little bit more information about the murder it fills in some gaps that would otherwise have to be explained by chance or character quirks. If Togami and Nagito planned for the blackout beforehand it explains why Togami happened to have night vision goggle with him, and why Nagito so conveniently had the straws to draw for who does the cleaning. As the above pointed out, it also really fits with Nagito's reaction after the body is found. Note that if Nagito were in some way guilty of actually wanting to murder someone, whether he did the deed or not, his first instinct would likely be to put the blame on someone else. But what he wants is to prove nobody did it, which suggests that he never wanted a real murder to take place at all.

I understand the sentiments against the floorboard theory, that it relies too much on chance, but keep in mind that from the viewpoint of the killer, there isn't much to lose. For the sake of argument lets assume the murderer is someone who found out about who is going to plant the knife under the table, but isn't working with the knife-planter. Presumably none of the other kids know about the space under the floorboards, or at least aren't considering it as a possible avenue for attack. Thus even if he just chills under there, waiting for someone to get into position, but no one ever does, all he has to do is crawl out and attempt murder some other time. Let's say he fails, but the knife-planter manages to kill someone. The killer is in the position Togami was in in Case 2 of DR1, of having damning evidence against the actual killer, being that he knows who planted the knife. He can just out the knife murderer, get off scott free, and plan to kill again some other time. If the theory that Togami was planning to fake a murder is true, then even better, there won't actually be a murder at all for him to be guilty of in the first place.

Thus, I feel that discounting the floorboard plan because it isn't 100% likely to work is silly. Would you take a bet where you flip a coin, heads you get a hundred bucks, tails you get nothing? Of course you would. The floorboard murderer probably thinks he has nothing to lose, having not counted on there being photographic evidence that he wasn't in the room at the time, and the fact that Gundam's earring is likely to bring the floorboards to people's attention. My guess is on Hanamura; he had access to the skewer, has been shown to be among the kids that are upset about being here (he was in denial, remember?), and called out during the blackout as if he were in the kitchen, but could easily have done that from under the floor.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.




The knife has no blood on the back of the blade except for splashes. It has tons of blood on the front of the blade, with dribble marks up to the back. I would expect a knife used for stabbing to have both sides of the blade equally bloody. If the thumbnail drawing of the knife is significant (and note that it isn't up for very long*), then that knife has been used for hacking or slicing something, not for stabbing.

e: Parenthetical is there to mean "it's very likely that something seen so briefly should not be overanalyzed".

W.T. Fits
Apr 21, 2010

Ready to Poyozo Dance all over your face.
My main issue with the "the killer stabbed wildly upwards from under the floorboards" theory is that I would think you would hit the floorboards more than you would hit the victim through the gaps. Especially given that it's likely to be just as dark under the floorboards as it is in the lodge during the blackout.

I mean, try this: take your hand, and hold it out flat, palm-down, with your fingers spread so that there's just enough space to slide a pen through them. Then close your eyes and try to jab a pen upward between your fingers as fast as you can without hitting them.

But we're supposed to believe that someone was able to accurately stab Togami eight times, in the dark, through some very narrow gaps in the floorboards? I'm not saying it's impossible, mind you, but it seems very unlikely at this point, with the evidence and testimony we've currently gathered.

slowbeef
Mar 15, 2005

Will Harvey hates you, and everything you stand for.
Pillbug

Iunnrais posted:

Most of the theories I've been seeing here are "he followed X person under the table" (the "Hey what are you doing" thing). That's hardly no good reason.

You can read my previous posts on why that is no good reason. Things like this:

Mangoman321 posted:

I understand the sentiments against the floorboard theory, that it relies too much on chance, but keep in mind that from the viewpoint of the killer, there isn't much to lose.

Aren't good reasons. There's a lot to lose in a failed murder attempt. The followup:

Mangoman321 posted:

For the sake of argument lets assume the murderer is someone who found out about who is going to plant the knife under the table, but isn't working with the knife-planter.

Makes it better.

You can't have the floorboards theory without the killer having good reason to believe "someone is going to be under that table where I can stab them." Probably or maybe which multiple people have contended are not good enough. It's a dumb plan with that.

mangoman321 posted:

Thus, I feel that discounting the floorboard plan because it isn't 100% likely to work is silly. Would you take a bet where you flip a coin, heads you get a hundred bucks, tails you get nothing? Of course you would. The floorboard murderer probably thinks he has nothing to lose, having not counted on there being photographic evidence that he wasn't in the room at the time, and the fact that Gundam's earring is likely to bring the floorboards to people's attention. My guess is on Hanamura; he had access to the skewer, has been shown to be among the kids that are upset about being here (he was in denial, remember?), and called out during the blackout as if he were in the kitchen, but could easily have done that from under the floor.

You have a lot to lose. You have this one opportunity to kill someone in the dark. They're not going to have another party in that same lodge after a blackout like that.

slowbeef fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Mar 1, 2013

likecnsnnts
Jun 16, 2008

SPLINTER CELLULITE

Arsenic Lupin posted:



The knife has no blood on the back of the blade except for splashes. It has tons of blood on the front of the blade, with dribble marks up to the back. I would expect a knife used for stabbing to have both sides of the blade equally bloody. If the thumbnail drawing of the knife is significant (and note that it isn't up for very long*), then that knife has been used for hacking or slicing something, not for stabbing.

e: Parenthetical is there to mean "it's very likely that something seen so briefly should not be overanalyzed".

This was my thinking, but I got a :smuggo: response about artist rendering and anime etc. But all this means is that the knife wasn't used to stab Togami, and was probably covered in the blood afterwards.

It's not an important point, though. I'm sure Hinata will figure this poo poo out next update.

slowbeef
Mar 15, 2005

Will Harvey hates you, and everything you stand for.
Pillbug

likecnsnnts posted:

It's not an important point, though. I'm sure Hinata will figure this poo poo out next update.

I bet Togami just killed himself to find out how good a detective everyone was.

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver
So here's the thing. There are two ways I think the events of the blackout could have played out, if indeed Togami was killed via someone skewering him from beneath the floorboards.

The person who caused the blackout almost definitely could not have been the same person who was under the floorboards. I just can't see there being enough time for the killer to black things out, get under the lounge, get in position, and kill Togami, all in a matter of seconds. My theory is that someone was, for whatever reason, already under the floorboards when the blackout began for whatever reason, if indeed this is how Togami died.

So who was it that caused the blackout? Two scenarios come to mind.

One is a third person, tangentially unrelated to the case. They may have had some intent with this action, but ultimately this third person was neither murdered nor a murderer, and is thus ultimately unrelated to the case because no matter what they did according to Monobear's rules there is no such thing as an accessory to a crime, only the person who commits it.

One is Togami himself. It is possible Togami intended to use the blackout for some purpose of his own, but it went wrong.

Anyway that's my takeaway.

slowbeef
Mar 15, 2005

Will Harvey hates you, and everything you stand for.
Pillbug

JT Jag posted:

The person who caused the blackout almost definitely could not have been the same person who was under the floorboards.

The current thread theory is the blackout's caused by blowing a fuse via the air conditioner, which can be set on a timer. So person under the floorboards could've caused the blackout ahead of time.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


It's worth noting that the guy who spent all day in the house, alone, is the only one who knows that turning on the air conditioner will blow the fuses.

mangoman321
Apr 10, 2009

slowbeef posted:

You have a lot to lose. You have this one opportunity to kill someone in the dark. They're not going to have another party in that same lodge after a blackout like that.

Well sure, if he doesn't manage to actually make the kill he loses the opportunity. But assuming the killer found a way under the floorboards that no one else knows about, I imagine he would think he is untouchable as a suspect. He loses the opportunity, but in his mind he probably thinks theres no chance at all of actually taking the fall for the murder, whether he pulls off his skewer plan or he fails and the knife-planter makes a kill instead. If he prioritizes his own safety over actually making the kill, then it's not illogical for him to bank on the plan that has the least chance of him dying, than on a plan that might be better for making the kill but riskier with getting away with it.

To be honest, we should really just wait for the rest of the evidence to see if there's an alternate route of attack that makes sense, but there's clearly evidence that could be construed to be pointing towards an attack from the floorboards. Just because when we think about it it would be hard to actually pull off that murder doesn't change the fact that we have information pointing towards that it's possible. I mean I could quote Holmes here, the whole rule out the impossible, then what remains, however improbable, is the truth. Once we get all the evidence, we may very rule out any other avenue of attack that isn't from under the floorboards. I will concede that making an attack from under the floor is less likely to succeed than something else, but I won't give in that it's so incredibly unlikely that we should completely rule it out.

slowbeef
Mar 15, 2005

Will Harvey hates you, and everything you stand for.
Pillbug

mangoman321 posted:

Well sure, if he doesn't manage to actually make the kill he loses the opportunity. But assuming the killer found a way under the floorboards that no one else knows about, I imagine he would think he is untouchable as a suspect. He loses the opportunity, but in his mind he probably thinks theres no chance at all of actually taking the fall for the murder, whether he pulls off his skewer plan or he fails and the knife-planter makes a kill instead. If he prioritizes his own safety over actually making the kill, then it's not illogical for him to bank on the plan that has the least chance of him dying, than on a plan that might be better for making the kill but riskier with getting away with it.

To be honest, we should really just wait for the rest of the evidence to see if there's an alternate route of attack that makes sense, but there's clearly evidence that could be construed to be pointing towards an attack from the floorboards. Just because when we think about it it would be hard to actually pull off that murder doesn't change the fact that we have information pointing towards that it's possible. I mean I could quote Holmes here, the whole rule out the impossible, then what remains, however improbable, is the truth. Once we get all the evidence, we may very rule out any other avenue of attack that isn't from under the floorboards. I will concede that making an attack from under the floor is less likely to succeed than something else, but I won't give in that it's so incredibly unlikely that we should completely rule it out.

I agree that more updates will help.

We do know that the lodge is raised, so it's not so much an underground passage.

I still don't agree that the killer's leaving things to chance. For the floorboards theory to really work, you need a way to reasonably guarantee someone's going to be there to stab. Hell, what if you're not sure and you just end up wounding someone?

Arbitrary Coin
Feb 17, 2012

:minnie: Cat Army :minnie:
2nd Battalion

slowbeef posted:

I agree that more updates will help.

We do know that the lodge is raised, so it's not so much an underground passage.

I still don't agree that the killer's leaving things to chance. For the floorboards theory to really work, you need a way to reasonably guarantee someone's going to be there to stab. Hell, what if you're not sure and you just end up wounding someone?

I think that the hypothetical person under the floorboards was just planning on spying on the party at first (so Gangster dude), spots Nagito doing weird stuff, and decides to mark the knife because he knows that someone else is going to going for it and he'll have a good chance of killing someone

slowbeef
Mar 15, 2005

Will Harvey hates you, and everything you stand for.
Pillbug

Arbitrary Coin posted:

I think that the hypothetical person under the floorboards was just planning on spying on the party at first (so Gangster dude), spots Nagito doing weird stuff, and decides to mark the knife because he knows that someone else is going to going for it and he'll have a good chance of killing someone

I'd have to think that same person would know about the blackout, though. I mean they snuck a skewer out for it.

MUTEkI
Oct 12, 2012
Kuzuryu seems to also be one of the smaller group members. I figure if anyone could fit under there it'd be he.


W.T. Fits posted:

My main issue with the "the killer stabbed wildly upwards from under the floorboards" theory is that I would think you would hit the floorboards more than you would hit the victim through the gaps. Especially given that it's likely to be just as dark under the floorboards as it is in the lodge during the blackout.

I mean, try this: take your hand, and hold it out flat, palm-down, with your fingers spread so that there's just enough space to slide a pen through them. Then close your eyes and try to jab a pen upward between your fingers as fast as you can without hitting them.

But we're supposed to believe that someone was able to accurately stab Togami eight times, in the dark, through some very narrow gaps in the floorboards? I'm not saying it's impossible, mind you, but it seems very unlikely at this point, with the evidence and testimony we've currently gathered.

Again, I'm not saying he stabbed in between the floorboards. I'm saying he lifted one of the floorboards out of the way, and then went in to stab Togami. The fact that the stabbings all seem to line up with the width of a single slat is quite consistent with that, while I don't think that just jabbing a knife or skewer between the slats would be possible, and if it were probably would be way easier to dodge.

Again, easiest way to discount this would be to show the floorboards are well-secured, but this lodge is not very robustly constructed. I wouldn't be surprised at all to find that many of them are loose like that.

mangoman321
Apr 10, 2009

slowbeef posted:

I agree that more updates will help.

We do know that the lodge is raised, so it's not so much an underground passage.

I still don't agree that the killer's leaving things to chance. For the floorboards theory to really work, you need a way to reasonably guarantee someone's going to be there to stab. Hell, what if you're not sure and you just end up wounding someone?

Assuming the killer saw the AC remote, as well as the knife, he knows exactly when the lights are going to go out. I don't think its a stretch for him to think someone is going to go for that knife when the lights go out. Thus, he knows where and when to be for there to be a chance to kill someone (the person going for the knife). If for whatever reason the opportunity doesn't present itself, or he isn't reasonably sure he can make a kill with the skewer, he can just do nothing and leave the area under the floor. Even if, in his calculations, he thinks it is monumentally unlikely for the stars to align and the opportunity to make a kill presents itself, he doesn't have much to lose just hanging out under the floorboards. I mean, lets look at the various ways it could play out:

A. The killer gets the chance to make the kill and takes it. The person who planted the knife is going to fall under suspicion, especially if the killer points out he saw him place the knife. The killer wasn't even in the room at the time as far as the rest of the cast knows, so he's free of suspicion.
B. The killer doesn't get the chance to make a kill, and instead the knife-planter murders someone instead. He knows who planted the knife, so he can convict the actual killer and everyone (aside from the accused killer and his victim) get off scott free.
c. The opportunity doesn't present itself, and the knife never gets used. The killer just shrugs, crawls out from under the floor and goes back to the party. There will be other times to plan a murder.

As for evidence, the way the body is positioned, face down, with wounds in the chest, and with no blood anywhere but under the table, suggests Togami was under the table when he was killed. It would be awkward to get him in this position without getting blood on yourself or elsewhere in the room. However, if you were under the floor and stabbed upwards with a skewer while Togami was crawling under the table face down, you would inflict wounds and leave blood splatter consistent with the way the crime scene looks. I have yet to hear a convincing alternative to this, so going by Holmes rules, I'm going with this method until I hear something better.

Going off of this, my personal guess is the killer is Hanamura. While he was preparing dinner, he saw someone make plans with the knife and the power outage, and also found a way under the floor. He makes the above calculations, and decides he has a chance to get off this island. During the blackout, he calls out as if he was in the kitchen when he was actually under the floor. If the floorboards were the area of attack, the only people who could reasonably have made the kill are those missing from the photo, so Hanamura, Nanami, Peko, and Kuzuryuu. Of those, only Hanamura and Kuzuryuu have shown signs of being likely to kill someone (Hanamura was freaking out and in denial when he found out about the murder games, while Kuzuryuu has openly stated he's willing to kill someone). Of these two, Hanamura had early access to the lodge, and would have known about the missing skewer.

Aside from this, my pet crazy theory is that Nagito is the one who placed the knife, but because he was actually conspiring with Togami to fake the latter's death. If this is the case, it is entirely possible they actually discussed this plan out loud, and Hanamura overheard it. This is the craziest bit, but whether it is true or not shouldn't impact the rest of the theory. Now, if we get further evidence suggesting a reasonable method for the body and the blood splatter to end up how it did, or someone else in the thread comes up with a convincing explanation, I'm more than willing to give up on the floorboards route. But until then, I'm sticking to what I've got here.

edit: grammar

mangoman321 fucked around with this message at 22:46 on Mar 1, 2013

Popo
Apr 24, 2008

Homestuck is a true work of art surpassing all of Shakespeare's works.
Sorry if I'm really going over done and dusted ideas here but I finished the DR1 LP yesterday and biltz'd through through this straight after so I've not gone too in depth into the threads' speculation. That excuse making out of the way;

Saying "the floorboard stabbing relies too much on chance" is fair but we're dealing with super-highschool-level kiddie-winks here. I don't doubt there are several students capable of that kind of precision/dexterity. The pervy chef and the swords[wo]man are the most obvious shouts for this skill but the mechanic and gangster are probably highly dexterous as well. Peko and Kuruzuzu(!?) are the two obvious suspects, one being totally absent and one unsupervised with a box or weapons, a wooden sword and skills to make nasty use of the skewer (I'm going to assume she can do Fencing on top of Kendo).

The question of the knife is an interesting one. My guess is it was taped there with the luminous tape so the person under the floor boards could hit it down and have it serve as a decoy, the real weapon having been removed via the floorboards. Possibly the missing skewer since that would have the needed reach.

The risks of messing up and missing the chance are counterbalanced by the low chance of detection. That the opportunity won't present itself again isn't much of reason not to take the risk of cocking up. If poo poo goes wrong you just slide out and wait. No one will know you tried anything so you can sit and wait for a new chance to come by. Right now time doesn't seem to be an issue for the students so a failed attempt and having to wait isn't really a problem.

The best argument I have against this idea though is more a meta one of it just being too obvious. The game has all but screamed at us that there are big gaps in the floorboard so it's either a red herring or First Case Is Easy syndrome. Other arguments would be that SHSL skills never really came up in DR1 for the murders (beyond Yamada making that Robo-suit) so hanging my theory on them being relevant now is tenuous and other than an adorably grumpy threat from our pint-sized gangster no one has a great motive yet. I mean, getting of the island is there but I can't see my picks of suspect (Peko or Kuzuryuu) being that desperate yet.

Now I think about it, only the Chef (last seen heading back into the kitchen before the murder), who seems to really be struggling and in poorly acted denial would strike me as being close to acting out.

Looking forward to more information so all my supposition can be shown to be completely wrong.

Armanky
Feb 15, 2013

"Kissing is sex."
-George Costanza

slowbeef posted:

I'd have to think that same person would know about the blackout, though. I mean they snuck a skewer out for it.

If he was hanging around enough to see Nagito setting up the knife, then it's very possible he also saw him come up with the blackout plan. I mean, at some point Nagito had to discover that turning on the air conditioner shorted the fuse, so if the killer took time to paint the knife, he'd also wanna check out the air conditioner that Nagito was messing with.

In other words, supposing that Nagito did set up the knife and blackout while cleaning for the party, it wouldn't be difficult for somebody spying on him to work out exactly what he was planning, especially if they had the time to go up there, steal a skewer, and paint the knife.

mangoman321
Apr 10, 2009

Popo posted:

Saying "the floorboard stabbing relies too much on chance" is fair but we're dealing with super-highschool-level kiddie-winks here. I don't doubt there are several students capable of that kind of precision/dexterity. The pervy chef and the swords[wo]man are the most obvious shouts for this skill but the mechanic and gangster are probably highly dexterous as well. Peko and Kuruzuzu(!?) are the two obvious suspects, one being totally absent and one unsupervised with a box or weapons, a wooden sword and skills to make nasty use of the skewer (I'm going to assume she can do Fencing on top of Kendo).

This, also. I haven't really wanted to out and out say this, but the dexterity required for the kill, for me, has never been an issue. This is a video game, so someone doing something that seems really difficult when you think about it logically seems fine to me, so long as it doesn't require superhuman abilities. My view going into this game is if it's physically possible, even if unlikely, for an average human to pull off, then its fair game. Furthermore, the exact details of the kill aren't usually necessary in games like this. Once we put the killer in the right place at the right time, the game usually spells out the details for us, as we slowly point out contradictions in the killer's arguments.

Phantasium
Dec 27, 2012

Random thought, if Togami is wearing the night vision goggles at any point, would he be able to see people hiding under the floorboards?

Brony Hunter
Dec 27, 2012

Motherfucking Mannis

They'll bend the knee or I'll destroy them
Wouldn't someone who hid in that crawlspace be covered in dirt and poo poo by the time they clambered out? I really hope the gap under the room is a red herring, because all this talk about it is getting loving ridiculous.

It would be a handy spot for the killer to temporarily ditch the skewer, though...

Catastrophics
Jun 2, 2011

Phantasium posted:

Random thought, if Togami is wearing the night vision goggles at any point, would he be able to see people hiding under the floorboards?

He could peer through the cracks and see them, I guess. But there doesn't seem to be any reason for him to do so really, unless they make a noise.

Edit: Uh, disregard that. I just realized they might have heat sensors built in.

Catastrophics fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Mar 2, 2013

slowbeef
Mar 15, 2005

Will Harvey hates you, and everything you stand for.
Pillbug

Catastrophics posted:

Edit: Uh, disregard that. I just realized they might have heat sensors built in.

So the way I understand it (and drat I could go for science chat) is that night vision enhances light, incuding from the infrared spectrum. More expensive ones will cast out infrared to reflect off of things if there's just absolutely no light available, but no thermal vision.

If that's accurate, and please correct me, Togami won't have a great advantage seeing anyone under the floorboards. He'd have to look specifically through the cracks, sort of the same you'd have to do in a well-lit environment.

Catastrophics
Jun 2, 2011

slowbeef posted:

So the way I understand it (and drat I could go for science chat) is that night vision enhances light, incuding from the infrared spectrum. More expensive ones will cast out infrared to reflect off of things if there's just absolutely no light available, but no thermal vision.

If that's accurate, and please correct me, Togami won't have a great advantage seeing anyone under the floorboards. He'd have to look specifically through the cracks, sort of the same you'd have to do in a well-lit environment.

Yeah, that's how I understood it. I did a google search after my post to find out if they could detect heat and it looks like some models have thermal imaging technology. So no science chat from me I'm afraid!

Anyway, it seems unlikely that's the case here. If he did see someone under the floorboards the sensible thing to do would be to tell the others first instead of flopping down on the floor above them.

pun pundit
Nov 11, 2008

I feel the same way about the company bearing the same name.

slowbeef posted:

So the way I understand it (and drat I could go for science chat) is that night vision enhances light, incuding from the infrared spectrum. More expensive ones will cast out infrared to reflect off of things if there's just absolutely no light available, but no thermal vision.

They also make it very easy to spot very faint sources of light. Popular fiction is often terrible at depicting this, but even faint luminescence would stand out. If the tape the knife was fastened to does indeed glow in the dark, to night-vision the table would look like one of those cars with ground effect lights.

Neddy Seagoon
Oct 12, 2012

"Hi Everybody!"

slowbeef posted:

I agree that more updates will help.

We do know that the lodge is raised, so it's not so much an underground passage.

I still don't agree that the killer's leaving things to chance. For the floorboards theory to really work, you need a way to reasonably guarantee someone's going to be there to stab. Hell, what if you're not sure and you just end up wounding someone?

The thing is though, there's nowhere else for the stabbings to come from. The simple fact is that Togami is A: Fat, and B: face-down. The first part comes in to play looking at the picture.



There he is, face-down, and he's already filling up most of the space under the table. He would've been most likely on his hands and knees at the time he was killed, and he's at the end of the table. This means there's no likely way you could get a killing blow with a long thin skewer - there's no angle to anything vital unless you drive it through his head or get VERY lucky. It would also put the killer within arm's reach of Togami when there's already a knife in his hand. You can rule out him being on his side when he was killed, the blood splatters on his clothes don't support it (unless there's a big patch on the far side we can't see). The only place you could get a decent angle to hit Togami anywhere vital is from below. Don't forget, the killer would have to drive it deeper than into an average person because of his body mass as well. As to potentially only wounding him, why do you think there's eight wounds down his entire chest? That's not inconsistent with someone stabbing madly up and down the gap in the hope it will hit something vital or just finish Togami outright.

Einander
Sep 14, 2008

"Yeh've forged a magnificent sword."

"This one's only practice. The real sword I intend to forge will be three times longer."

"Can there really be a sword as monstrous as that in this world?"

"Yes. I can see that sword... Somewhere out there..."
The wound spread is the best evidence for the "under-the-floorboard skewer" theory. That variety in wound placement would be difficult to do with a knife or an above-ground skewer, due to the angles and distances involved. It's just right for someone using a long stabbing implement at the edge of its range, though -- relatively small differences in angle at the base would result in larger distance changes at the tip.

slowbeef
Mar 15, 2005

Will Harvey hates you, and everything you stand for.
Pillbug

Neddy Seagoon posted:

The thing is though, there's nowhere else for the stabbings to come from. The simple fact is that Togami is A: Fat, and B: face-down. The first part comes in to play looking at the picture.

There absolutely is. Togami's under the table, he looks up at you, on his side. You stab him a bunch, he rolls down face down, dead.

I'm not contending that's what happened.

I am contending if you want to keep the "through the floorboards" theory, you have to eliminate chance. No murder plot involves the black out, the planted knife, and also "maybe someone will get down where I can stab them."

Parts Kit
Jun 9, 2006

durr
i have a hole in my head
durr

slowbeef posted:

So the way I understand it (and drat I could go for science chat) is that night vision enhances light, incuding from the infrared spectrum. More expensive ones will cast out infrared to reflect off of things if there's just absolutely no light available, but no thermal vision.

If that's accurate, and please correct me, Togami won't have a great advantage seeing anyone under the floorboards. He'd have to look specifically through the cracks, sort of the same you'd have to do in a well-lit environment.
Yeah, night vision is an enhancement of the light available using some kind of photomultiplier, the specifics of which are way above my head. If you don't have enough light available most also have a backup illuminator that can range from something fancy and expensive to little more than just an attached infrared only LED flashlight (like on the cheapie ~$100 monocles). So with the illuminator on he'd be able to see even without any other light sources, but naked human eyes would still not be able to see his beam (unless the imaginary company really cheaped out on the LEDs, in which case every so often you might see an incredibly faint red glow at the source if the crappy LEDs barely peek into the red range a human can see).

So unless there was a good IR light source under the floorboards to shine on whoever he'd be at basically the same "advantage" as if he just had a flashlight and was trying to shine it down the cracks. So probably wouldn't be all that helpful unless those cracks are really drat fat.

gimme the GOD DAMN candy
Jul 1, 2007
Actually, the skewer might have been used in the ballroom. The more I think about it, the less sense it makes for someone to be able to stab Togami so many times using a tiny gap while on their back with no light. Once, sure. Repeatedly, not so much. The skewer seems much more likely to have been disposed of using the floorboards. That still leaves the matter of how Togami was lured under the table, where the skewer came from and how the murderer avoided blood spatter.

So if the skewer is the primary murder weapon, what is the point of the knife? The most obvious answer is that it is being used to cast suspicion on someone else. The specifics on who and how aren't clear yet.

Krinkle
Feb 9, 2003

Ah do believe Ah've got the vapors...
Ah mean the farts


slowbeef posted:

There absolutely is. Togami's under the table, he looks up at you, on his side. You stab him a bunch, he rolls down face down, dead.

I'm not contending that's what happened.

I am contending if you want to keep the "through the floorboards" theory, you have to eliminate chance. No murder plot involves the black out, the planted knife, and also "maybe someone will get down where I can stab them."

Well, maybe not a satisfying one. I can make a plan to murder someone who gets confused and walks down my alley to steal their wallet, and if it doesn't pan out and nobody comes I don't really have to explain myself to anyone. I think there's room for a pretty good guess where someone's going to be murderable at a certain place and time and it's enough to go on that it was worth a shot!

Rawkking
Sep 4, 2011

slowbeef posted:

There absolutely is. Togami's under the table, he looks up at you, on his side. You stab him a bunch, he rolls down face down, dead.

I'm not contending that's what happened.

I am contending if you want to keep the "through the floorboards" theory, you have to eliminate chance. No murder plot involves the black out, the planted knife, and also "maybe someone will get down where I can stab them."

Just so I get your reasoning right, you are making the assumption that the size of the skewer and the state of the cracks render it impossible for anyone to make a kill on someone who isn't lying down like Togami? Not even if they were sitting on the ground, alone for some reason, like Pekoyama on guard duty? (Not that she probably got tired enough to sit down with how short her duty was before the blackout occurred)

Because I think that's a bit premature at this point, and your treating it like fact is, unless I'm misunderstanding you, what's causing you to then conclude that the killer has to have personally (or through a rather contrived accomplice/overhearing scenario I think we both think is unlikely) ensured that Togami ended up as he did so they could kill with the skewer.

If the killer has a bit more leverage than attacking only victims literally lying on the ground, aren't responsible for the blackout, and could through hearing of footsteps, conversations, and seeing what they could through the cracks reasonably have an idea of what was going on topside, it's not at all unreasonable for someone to wait for a good opportunity to kill an isolated and unaware target. And if the good opportunity doesn't present itself, there is the novel solution of giving up on the attempt for the time being.

Rawkking fucked around with this message at 03:13 on Mar 2, 2013

Tenebrais
Sep 2, 2011

It occurs to me that Hanamura, specifically, might have a reason to be crawling around under the floorboards, given his proclivities. Perhaps the killing was an attack of opportunity during someone else's murder plot. I don't know how that would gel with the darkness, though.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Armanky posted:

While I do think the skewer was used, I wouldn't put it past Dangan Ronpa to bring up something like that and have it wind up being a red herring. My point is, that logic isn't sound enough to dismiss so many possible theories. For all we know, Hanamura just sucks at counting.
If it were a real life case I'd agree that an apparent clue existing doesn't make it relevant. But pure red herrings are something you're really not meant to have in mysteries, and I don't think DR1 had any irrelevant evidence.

W.T. Fits posted:

My main issue with the "the killer stabbed wildly upwards from under the floorboards" theory is that I would think you would hit the floorboards more than you would hit the victim through the gaps. Especially given that it's likely to be just as dark under the floorboards as it is in the lodge during the blackout.

I mean, try this: take your hand, and hold it out flat, palm-down, with your fingers spread so that there's just enough space to slide a pen through them. Then close your eyes and try to jab a pen upward between your fingers as fast as you can without hitting them.

But we're supposed to believe that someone was able to accurately stab Togami eight times, in the dark, through some very narrow gaps in the floorboards? I'm not saying it's impossible, mind you, but it seems very unlikely at this point, with the evidence and testimony we've currently gathered.
You could feel for the gap in the floorboards and thus guide the skewer between them. The floorboards are probably thick enough that you could keep the skewer at least partially between them while stabbing. I wouldn't say they were exactly "accurate" stabbs either - it looked very much like a killer just stabbing wildly at multiple body parts to make sure they hit something vital. If I were allowed to do that test only with the pen already between my fingers I'd see it as doable.

I would expect to maybe see some scratches or signs of damage between the floorboards from having the skewer rubbed all over it, but Togami's body is currently in the way. That might come up in future updates.

Mondlicht
Oct 13, 2011

if history could set you free

Brony Hunter posted:

Wouldn't someone who hid in that crawlspace be covered in dirt and poo poo by the time they clambered out? I really hope the gap under the room is a red herring, because all this talk about it is getting loving ridiculous.

It would be a handy spot for the killer to temporarily ditch the skewer, though...

Unless the locked bathroom is their "base," so to speak. You could strip down, go under the floorboards, do your murder business, get all gross with blood/dirt, go back to the bathroom and wash up and put your clothes back on. Assuming the bathroom is more than just a toilet, and there's a sink or something.

I'm most suspicious of Souda right now, he just seems weird. He disappears to check the office right before the power outage, then comes back having never made it there, then offers to go back a second time. As a mechanic he might have been aware of the AC situation, maybe even wired it to cause the black out before Nagito went over there to clean. That would account for having time to plant the knife before anyone else got there. As soon as the others notice Togami's absense, he's all about going back to the office.. like he wants to get away from the crime scene before they discover it. Though he does come back and ends up being there for the discovery of the body, so, I'm not sure. Hopefully we'll have more to go off of soon.

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Kytrarewn
Jul 15, 2011

Solving mysteries in
Bb, F and D.

slowbeef posted:

The current thread theory is the blackout's caused by blowing a fuse via the air conditioner, which can be set on a timer. So person under the floorboards could've caused the blackout ahead of time.

The question is whether it's likely that the air conditioner alone would blow the fuse? If yes, Nagito is the likely winner. If no, Hanamura is our culprit (for causing the power outage, at least), since he has access to the rest of the power-intensive devices in the lodge (microwave, refrigerator/freezer, oven/stove if electric (Which seems likely on a deserted island, since electricity might be easier to procure than natural gas), etc.

And there's still the slim possibility that Togami caused the blackout intentionally somehow, in the hope that he would be able to see (with his goggles) who would capitalize on the opportunity to try to murder someone, in order to keep a closer eye on them thereafter.

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