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I set my whole team around the Chelsea Villa double week and I've made a terrible mistake. I don't even have Benteke, what was I thinking. Now trying to fix it will cripple my team for the half the season so I think early wildcard is in order.
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Aug 21, 2013 20:55
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| # ? May 23, 2024 03:27 |
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I hope Mata scores a hattrick of goals all set up by Ivanovic because I'm losing my clean sheet for him tonight, and because Mata didn't even play on Sunday. 
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Aug 21, 2013 20:58
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Hazard - Lukaku - Benteke dream team. Get that alternator with De Bruyne I reckon.
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Aug 21, 2013 20:59
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Does hazard get the assist for the luna own goal?
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Aug 21, 2013 20:59
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Crunkjuice posted:Does hazard get the assist for the luna own goal?
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Aug 21, 2013 21:00
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Is Lukaku really not playing again? 
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Aug 21, 2013 21:00
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irlZaphod posted:I hope Mata scores a hattrick of goals all set up by Ivanovic because I'm losing my clean sheet for him tonight, and because Mata didn't even play on Sunday. Yeah, I'm in the same boat as you. And if Mata hadn't played today I had an 11 point defender waiting as a sub. A bit upset about this really.
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Aug 21, 2013 21:03
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Well, going with Lukaku over Benteke/Soldado/Giroud was a big loving mistake.
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Aug 21, 2013 21:39
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Der Shovel posted:Yeah, I'm in the same boat as you. And if Mata hadn't played today I had an 11 point defender waiting as a sub. A bit upset about this really.
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Aug 21, 2013 22:04
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irlZaphod posted:I had Rangel as my first sub with a big fat 0 points, so even Mata's 2 was better. Yeah well, I had Whittaker. 11 points vs. Mata's awful two. No wait, FOUR, because of course I captained him figuring he'd get more points against Hull and Villa than RVP would against Swansea.
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Aug 21, 2013 22:14
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Well this week was a huge loving letdown. gently caress Lukaku
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Aug 22, 2013 03:13
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I had Benteke in my squad to start why did I change! Oh the hindsight
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Aug 22, 2013 06:08
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He had ars che LIV BYE and only scored a single goal against the top clubs last year. He was a scrub pick that happened to come off, mainly thanks to Gabby. Same as RvP scoring a brace for the ~30% of people who captained him on a Chelsea dgw. I had a bye this weak and managed to beat the average by one point for the win despite scoring second bottom in my mini-league. 
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Aug 22, 2013 06:24
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Thought I might do a little update on TRPH2H2 as a mammoth gameweek 1 is now at an end.code:Unbelievably the mighty Borussia Boom Boom managed 82 points and still lost. No point popping up the table yet really. And next week's fixtures code:Raffles fucked around with this message at 09:50 on Aug 22, 2013 |
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Aug 22, 2013 09:45
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lowest points in the league 
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Aug 22, 2013 09:50
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The results for H2H1 this matchday:code:code:belgend fucked around with this message at 10:13 on Aug 22, 2013 |
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Aug 22, 2013 10:00
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98 for the first week, yes I am ok with this.
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Aug 22, 2013 10:00
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Here's H2H3's results for GW1code:code:irlZaphod fucked around with this message at 10:16 on Aug 22, 2013 |
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Aug 22, 2013 10:06
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This is H2H4:code:code:
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Aug 22, 2013 10:45
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I think 74 points beats anything I scored last year. Could have had more if my midfield wasn't so bad. Mata, Michu, and Britton for a combined 5 points. Ick.
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Aug 22, 2013 10:59
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92 points. Woof. Many lols at the guy complaining that only bad players picked Benteke because he got all the goals and he didn't bother picking him.
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Aug 22, 2013 11:40
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Most people don't pick him because he has a horrendous opening draw for the first three weeks and showed an almost complete inability to score against Top 4 sides last year.
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Aug 22, 2013 11:44
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Mills posted:Most people don't pick him because he has a horrendous opening draw for the first three weeks and showed an almost complete inability to score against Top 4 sides last year. Guess that was a bad call!
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Aug 22, 2013 12:01
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*pores over numerous dusty tomes, pours concoctions into beakers* Hmm yes, I think, through the power of sabermetrics, I have devised the ultimate fantasy football soccer team for gameweek 1 of the fantasy football game. Benteke cannot, nay, will not possibly score. *Benteke scores all the goals* Mama mia! My spreadsheets!
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Aug 22, 2013 12:08
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Removing the DGW it's a harder call, but once you factor that in, getting the guy who scored who scored 19 last year, 7 in his last 4 in preseason and is the focal point for everything his team does is hardly a punt. Three goals was definitely better than expected though. I ended up with 101 at the end of the week and it's downhill from here, I imagine.
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Aug 22, 2013 12:11
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My brother got 13 points out of Danny Welbeck. He must be a genius too.
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Aug 22, 2013 12:28
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I know this is just Fantasy Football and that not everyone has a good understanding of probability but, for anyone that actually cares, the decision to buy Benteke was an objectively poor one. Based on very recent form, as well as offensive and defensive formations, it was less likely that Benteke would score in the first two game weeks (and he certainly won't in the third game week) relative to his price. There were other better options. [The exception to this rule is if you wanted a point of differential, and didn't care about the statistics or probabilities of your purchase.] Yes, every game is different. Yes, anything can happen. But some things are more likely to happen. [As an aside, NNN's response above is akin to tossing a coin that is biased to land 75% heads, 25% tails, expecting it to land on heads, and then being called stupid for not picking tails. Well, my friend, the stupid people in this world are the ones that think you can judge a decision based on it's uncorrelated outcome!] In any case, I say congratulations to anyone that has him. He's made you great points and he's going to make you cash now as people scramble to get him in! Edit: He said it better. ^^
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Aug 22, 2013 12:32
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My work colleague and I were going to try a new strategy this year where we take strategic points hits early this year to grow cash fast. In previous years, we've always tried to avoid points hits. Easier said than done for me after scoring 60. He scored 100, already has Coleman, and is taking an 8 point hit to bring in Silva, Zabaleta and Benteke. I do like the idea. Has anyone else tried this before?
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Aug 22, 2013 12:34
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No I would say the stupid people are the people who think they can use one season of football matches and draw anything from it, if you care about probability, variance and expected value so much maybe the first thing you should research is the concept of a proper sample size.
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Aug 22, 2013 12:36
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In the absence of a proper sample size, you make do with what you can. He scored once against top 8 sides last year. Once in eight games. If you start with the assumption that Benteke is likely to score goals against a Top 8 side with reasonable success (let's say 50%) as you seem to desire, what do you think the odds are that a 1 in 8 outcome happens? I don't think anyone here, or anyone else, has said that any probabilistic method is a guaranteed 100% success rate. You seem to be moving the goal posts. First, they're idiots because Benteke couldn't possibly score. Now they're idiots because Benteke probably wouldn't score. You're running out of room to move backwards here.
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Aug 22, 2013 12:41
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I put Benteke in my team for next week because he's big and black and belge and cool. I came to this conclusion by watching videos of some of his insanely sick goals, and also googled some pictures, and thought in my head, 'drat, fairly cool'.
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Aug 22, 2013 12:44
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I put Benteke in my team because he scores a lot of goals against smaller clubs and what do you know there's a lot more smaller clubs in the Prem than top 4 clubs.
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Aug 22, 2013 12:49
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NeoNaoNeo posted:No I would say the stupid people are the people who think they can use one season of football matches and draw anything from it, if you care about probability, variance and expected value so much maybe the first thing you should research is the concept of a proper sample size. You sound pretty insecure. Well done on your week. 
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Aug 22, 2013 12:49
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He scored once against top 8 sides if you ignore the 3 he got against Liverpool, thats some good statting. edit: Also lol, 8 games? Against the top 8?
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Aug 22, 2013 12:52
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Ratios and Tendency posted:You sound pretty insecure. Well done on your week. lol I don't know I'm not the one who had to come in and assert some false superiority because people did better than me in a fantasy football game.
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Aug 22, 2013 12:53
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I think the sex ghost and I had the same professor at fantasy football university
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Aug 22, 2013 12:53
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I suppose the question is whether you consider scoring against top teams a relevant stat compared to the others. 14 goals in 17 or whatever since jan, 7 goals in 4 games in preseason, including 2 past malaga. I didn't expect him to score three, but the guy scores a lot of goals and it was perfectly reasonable to think that given two games he's going to nick a goal.
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Aug 22, 2013 12:56
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Mills posted:In the absence of a proper sample size, you make do with what you can. This is all complete nonsense really isn't it? I mean, Villa consistently got stronger over last season, Benteke is the focal point for all of their attacks and takes penalties, Arsenal hadn't signed anyone and always start the season like poo poo. None of which is considered by your highly scientific model. The idea that you can take an almost random selection of variables and use them to declare a player choice "objectively poor" is ridiculous.
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Aug 22, 2013 12:56
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You're 100% correct on both ends of your hyperbole. My highly scientific model uses a random selection of variables. Thank you for showing me the error of my ways.
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Aug 22, 2013 12:58
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| # ? May 23, 2024 03:27 |
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Benteke sophomore slump incoming imo
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Aug 22, 2013 12:58
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