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You can't impeach people for being incompetent. According to Wikipedia: quote:"The President, Vice President, and all civil Officers of the United States shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors." So unless Obama has committed treason, bribed someone, or performed some other "high crimes and misdemeanors" they've got no case.
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Jan 6, 2014 18:43
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:You can't impeach people for being incompetent. The last impeachment case was for perjury regarding adultery.
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Jan 6, 2014 18:45
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:You can't impeach people for being incompetent. Impeachment is a political act, not a legal one. The House can impeach for any reason they can get 218 votes for.
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Jan 6, 2014 18:50
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:You can't impeach people for being incompetent. They don't want to actually impeach him. They want to put on a little show that would get all their doners hard so they keep sending money.
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Jan 6, 2014 18:51
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mcmagic posted:Likely Dem if Lonegan is the candidate. Thats a purple district. Lonegan beat Booker in that district in the special 54-46, and Norcross has cleared the Democratic field for a C-list freeholder from Edgewater Park that nobody's ever heard of. Lonegan has bigger problems in the Republican primary than he would in a general.
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Jan 6, 2014 18:51
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mcmagic posted:There is no way the GOP in either AR or LA doesn't nominate someone crazy enough to blow one of those seats. It will probably happen in GA too. There's no one with any recognition challenging the established candidates, probably because guys like Tom Cotton are new and sufficiently far right already. Plus he's pretty much already future President material on resume alone.
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Jan 6, 2014 18:52
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:So when does this thing actually start? Are any Nate Silver types crunching the numbers on the likelihood of the Dems to retake the House and keep the Senate? (dream big) Right now toss darts at a board and you'll likely be about as accurate as any 'informed' conjecture. In 3-4 months things will be a lot more firmed up to make an actual educated guess from. The current guesstimate is the Dems hold the senate by the skin of their teeth (biden vote) and the house remains much as it is. But there's an entire year for fuckups, catastrophes, and Shocking Behavior™ from a candidate/incumbent.
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Jan 6, 2014 18:52
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jeffersonlives posted:Lonegan beat Booker in that district in the special 54-46, and Norcross has cleared the Democratic field for a C-list freeholder from Edgewater Park that nobody's ever heard of. Lonegan has bigger problems in the Republican primary than he would in a general. I find it hard to believe that Lonegan outperforming Runyan (who ran as a relatively moderate republican)is a result that can hold up in a midterm election. He's literally a crazy person.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:00
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mcmagic posted:I find it hard to believe that Lonegan outperforming Runyan (who ran as a relatively moderate republican)is a result that can hold up in a midterm election. He's literally a crazy person. Why? It's a rural/exurban mixture district that skews very white and very old where the Democrats are going to run a no-name machine candidate from the wrong part of the district.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:11
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De Nomolos posted:There's no one with any recognition challenging the established candidates, probably because guys like Tom Cotton are new and sufficiently far right already. Plus he's pretty much already future President material on resume alone. Yeah, I expect Cotton to win in AR because, while he's crazy, he's the right kind of crazy for the AR electorate and the Republican establishment loves him. Bill Kristol was writing columns for months pushing him to run. In LA, I'm not going to bet against someone with the last name Landrieu. She'll have a tough fight and Bill Cassidy is a serious challenger, though there's also a Tea Party challenger to Cassidy in the primary who might make things fun. But, in response to your original point, I don't think Obamacare is going to be a major electoral influence in November. There are certainly going to be rollout issues over the next several months, and certainly also people who end up paying more under their new plans in the exchanges, and probably a few horror stories that get play on the nightly news, but none of these things are likely to change the minds of partisans or influence more than a handful of undecideds.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:12
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mcmagic posted:There is no way the GOP in either AR or LA doesn't nominate someone crazy enough to blow one of those seats. It will probably happen in GA too. I strongly disagree. They have totally learned their lesson and will definitely not nominate somebody to the state-wide ticket that isn't a broad-based candidate that can win a majority Not an Onion article. 
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Jan 6, 2014 19:14
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Jim Gerlach (R) in PA-06 just announced he's not running for re-election. It's an R+2 district that Obama won in 2008 by 7, so it may be competitive.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:35
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computer parts posted:The last impeachment case was for perjury regarding adultery. I guess the "high crimes and misdemeanors" thing allows for a lot, actually. my bad, y'all.  I just wish campaign season would hit full swing already. I'm getting blue balls over here.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:39
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Joementum posted:But, in response to your original point, I don't think Obamacare is going to be a major electoral influence in November. There are certainly going to be rollout issues over the next several months, and certainly also people who end up paying more under their new plans in the exchanges, and probably a few horror stories that get play on the nightly news, but none of these things are likely to change the minds of partisans or influence more than a handful of undecideds.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:45
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FMguru posted:(although I'm sure they have their share of dominionists and militia nuts and doomsday preppers and the like). Speaking of which, let's not forget that Enzi still has at least one primary opponent left to beat... http://wyomingnews.com/articles/2013/05/27/news/19local_05-27-13.txt The Wyoming Tribune Eagle posted:Bleming’s life story is about as atypical as his campaign style. So, yeah. Still anyone's race.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:49
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Plastic Megaphone posted:Speaking of which, let's not forget that Enzi still has at least one primary opponent left to beat... I predict this person will do embarrassingly well in the primary.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:51
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I'm glad that he censored the word "bitch," he might have offended someone if he didn't.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:51
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Plastic Megaphone posted:Speaking of which, let's not forget that Enzi still has at least one primary opponent left to beat... The guy is probably a much better person than Liz Cheney.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:51
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Teddybear posted:I predict this person will do embarrassingly well in the primary. Well, he did manage 6.2 percent of the vote when he ran against Sen. Barrasso in 2012...
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Jan 6, 2014 19:59
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Projections this early are pretty useless. In the respective Januaries, most pundits predicted the republicans would gain seats in 2006 and 2012, and that the Dems would hold on to the house in 2010. Like someone said, some Republican is going to call women whores or get caught hitting on underage boys again.
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Jan 6, 2014 19:59
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:I guess the "high crimes and misdemeanors" thing allows for a lot, actually. my bad, y'all. It's not just that, it's that the courts almost certainly would not get involved in a fight over impeachment, so functionally, the House and Senate can impeach and convict for any reason they deem appropriate. Basically, the courts would say that impeachment has been reserved to the Legislative branch, and for the courts to overturn an impeachment would show a lack of respect for a co-equal branch of government - otherwise, for purposes of impeachment the courts would become a kind of "Super House/Senate" deciding whether the House's impeachment or the Senate's conviction was appropriate. This makes impeachment fundamentally a "political question" and the federal courts do not have jurisdiction to decide political questions. If the people disagree with the result reached by one of the branches on a political question, the solution is to vote out the people who made the decision.
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Jan 6, 2014 20:40
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The X-man cometh posted:Projections this early are pretty useless. In the respective Januaries, most pundits predicted the republicans would gain seats in 2006 and 2012, and that the Dems would hold on to the house in 2010. Punditry isn't too accurate, but that doesn't mean that you can't make good projections from far out, e.g. http://andrewgelman.com/2009/09/23/generic_house_p/.
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Jan 6, 2014 20:49
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There are going to be seven GA GOP Senate primary debates between Paul "lies straight from the pit of hell" Broun, Art Gardner, Phil "maybe Todd Akin was right" Gingrey, Derrick Grayson, Karen "drummed out of Komen" Handel, Jack Kingston, David Perdue, and Eugene Yu. Whether these will be Lincoln-Douglas debates and whether there will be a timekeeper but no moderator is unclear at this time.
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Jan 6, 2014 22:16
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Joementum posted:There are going to be seven GA GOP Senate primary debates between Paul "lies straight from the pit of hell" Broun, Art Gardner, Phil "maybe Todd Akin was right" Gingrey, Derrick Grayson, Karen "drummed out of Komen" Handel, Jack Kingston, David Perdue, and Eugene Yu. If they made this a PPV i would buy it.
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Jan 6, 2014 22:24
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I was under the impression the GOP was trying to limit the visibility of the nutbag coalition. Guess that didn't work.
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Jan 6, 2014 22:26
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Joementum posted:Jim Gerlach (R) in PA-06 just announced he's not running for re-election. It's an R+2 district that Obama won in 2008 by 7, so it may be competitive. Hey John McGuigan - you boat is arriving...
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Jan 6, 2014 22:28
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Alter Ego posted:I was under the impression the GOP was trying to limit the visibility of the nutbag coalition. Guess that didn't work. That's for national elections. The nutbaggery is a free for all in Georgia.
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Jan 6, 2014 22:32
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Mark "Coonrippy" Brown is the latest candidate for Governor of Tennessee. He is running a single issue campaign, insisting that the state return his pet raccoon, Rebekah.quote:“Gov. Haslam ignored the cries from the entire United States,” he said. Here is a video of Coonrippy and Rebekah showing, in happier times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMbTRWV-oBw Joementum fucked around with this message at 01:48 on Jan 7, 2014 |
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Jan 7, 2014 01:43
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Joementum posted:There are going to be seven GA GOP Senate primary debates between Paul "lies straight from the pit of hell" Broun, Art Gardner, Phil "maybe Todd Akin was right" Gingrey, Derrick Grayson, Karen "drummed out of Komen" Handel, Jack Kingston, David Perdue, and Eugene Yu.
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Jan 7, 2014 05:21
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Sad Banana posted:And the only winner of these debates is..... Michelle Nunn. Who made an impressive $1.6 million in her 4Q 2013 fundraising, to boot.
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Jan 7, 2014 05:36
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Amphion posted:So best case for the GOP would be 12 seats in the Senate? Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota, West Virginia. Missouri may be a bit of a tougher stretch to pick up in 2018, and could even be a toss-up on 2016: in '18 McCaskill is still quite well-liked and the main brush that Akin tried to tar her with before he went and did what he did was ACA/being too close to Obama which might not carry as much weight in 4 years, and in '16 it's Roy Blunt who doesn't really elicit strong opinions from Republicans other than those in his base of Springfield. Plus, the Dems here have a deep bench, a popular governor in Jay Nixon who is term-limited in 2016, and have done well organizing in the recent past (they've excelled in uniting a fair few groups against right-to-work, for instance), and most of the GOP pols here are either unpopular within the party (Sarah Steelman), safely ensconced in red House districts (Sam Graves, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler et al), can be easily linked to former governor/corrupt idiot Matt Blunt (Ed Martin, a few others whose names escape me) or are nutbar (Todd Akin, Brian Nieves, etc).
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Jan 7, 2014 06:25
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Similarly, unless North Dakota really has gone full Tea Party recently, there's been a pretty strong incumbency advantage for Democrats despite the strong Republican lean (Conrad, Dorgan, Pomeroy, etc). Obviously anything can happen in 4 years but I don't know that the seat is necessarily an assumed loss.
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Jan 7, 2014 09:14
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zynga dot com posted:Similarly, unless North Dakota really has gone full Tea Party recently, there's been a pretty strong incumbency advantage for Democrats despite the strong Republican lean (Conrad, Dorgan, Pomeroy, etc). Obviously anything can happen in 4 years but I don't know that the seat is necessarily an assumed loss. I have never understood why this is possible in North Dakota, of all states.
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Jan 7, 2014 11:28
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What's the skinny on the replacements of Northam and Herring in Virginia? Is it really going to be the case that they're going to have sacrificed the state senate in exchange for the executive jobs?
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Jan 7, 2014 12:26
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The governor of NC yesterday announced that the special election to fill Mel Watt's seat will be held in November alongside the regular elections, citing costs. It'll stay in democrats' hands because it's the 12th and looks like this  but it'll stay vacant until next year. And I'm sure if it was say Foxx's or Ellmer's district they'd plead poverty in delaying the election as well.
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Jan 7, 2014 13:41
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StarMagician posted:I have never understood why this is possible in North Dakota, of all states. Same sorts of reasons that at the state level West Virginia is still controlled by Democrat supermajorities.
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Jan 7, 2014 17:46
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StarMagician posted:I have never understood why this is possible in North Dakota, of all states. There are two major reasons, in my opinion. First, although ND has gone crazy with most of the rest of the red states, both parties have traditionally embodied the "leave me alone" western style rather than heavy ideological or religious influences. This meant that as long as you could bring back the pork (advantageous farm bills) you'd generally be fine regardless of party. This also meant that incumbency was/is highly valued as it allows the state to punch above its weight. Second, the state has a lot of historical ties to area progressive and socialist movements from the early 1900s, particularly in its heavily Norwegian areas. In fact, the state had a 3 party system until the Non-Partisan League got folded into the current Democratic-NPL party in 1956 (Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor party arose out of similar circumstances). There are some remnants of these movements, such as ND being the only state with a state bank, but for the most part this has disappeared as part of the nation's larger political realignment. Although I haven't looked into it, I wouldn't be surprised if SD was fairly similar. The upper Midwest is weird.
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Jan 8, 2014 02:01
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My friend tells me the house is safe for the republicans until 2020 because of gerrymandering. How true is this?
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Jan 8, 2014 02:52
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Without any actual data or anything that sounds a little early to me.
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Jan 8, 2014 02:57
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I wonder how successful it would be if the state Democratic Parties in North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania all decided to start pushing hard for non-partisan redistricting commissions, and than used that as an excuse for a mid-term redistricting.
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Jan 8, 2014 03:04
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