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Gamesguy posted:So am I, set your alarm for 5:30am like me bro. Lots of money to be made in extended hours. Our algos start at 7am EST and trade all the way to 8pm. Could start earlier I guess, but liquidity is a bit silly before 7am. I also like sleep.
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Mar 28, 2014 23:02
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Yeah I used to get up when I had a lot of naked puts and if the market crashed I would have been super hosed. Not too fun.
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Mar 28, 2014 23:06
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I feel bad for the night desk people around where I am. 6 PM - 6 AM, and there's nothing open foodwise...
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Mar 29, 2014 00:50
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Is anyone giving Himax a try, right now, in its current condition? I've been doing the dollar-cost-averaging all week piling on shares. Today was the last day that I added, right at the end of the day, when it started going red again, and I ended up with shares at around $11.50, which I really don't think is a bad price for the stock. I really can't figure this one out, it always seems to start the days in a green, and end up red in the last hour or so. The financials are looking great, they've got a good product, and Google has been eyeballing them. They've increased profit and margin for 3 years straight now. Last week they were downgraded for really no apparent reason, and then yesterday they were written about as being oversold. I would just like to know if anyone else has any thoughts on Himax, or if I've, more than likely, made a huge mistake.
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Mar 29, 2014 02:36
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There was a good story tonight on 60 Minutes regarding HFT frontrunning: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-the-us-stock-market-rigged/ Flash Boys comes out tomorrow I think.
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Mar 31, 2014 04:28
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mik posted:Lots of money to be made in extended hours. Our algos start at 7am EST and trade all the way to 8pm. Could start earlier I guess, but liquidity is a bit silly before 7am. I also like sleep.
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Mar 31, 2014 05:27
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Josh Lyman posted:I thought extended hours for equities was 8am-6pm. Are you trading futures/FX? Just equities - extended hours is from from 4am to 8pm.
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Mar 31, 2014 13:59
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Arkane posted:There was a good story tonight on 60 Minutes regarding HFT frontrunning: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-the-us-stock-market-rigged/
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Mar 31, 2014 15:23
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Uranium 235 posted:Nice link. Wish I could HFT frontrun. *kicks dirt* No you don't. Profits have pretty much collapsed for HFTs over the past 2 years. GETCO, once responsible for a colossal 1/5 of all equities volume, barely made any or lost money on their HFT operations last few quarters. That 60 minutes story is like reporting on the rise of dot com companies in the year 2002. Gamesguy fucked around with this message at 16:37 on Mar 31, 2014 |
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Mar 31, 2014 16:21
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Gamesguy posted:No you don't. Profits have pretty much collapsed for HFTs over the past 2 years. GETCO, once responsible for a colossal 1/5 of all equities volume, barely made any or lost money on their HFT operations last few quarters. Yeah, it's pretty much one of those things where the only point of doing it is if you can do it better than everyone else, and it turns out everyone else is also doing it quite well so there is no edge left any more.
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Mar 31, 2014 17:09
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Figured this would be the only place that might know: are ISDA contracts asset class specific?
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Mar 31, 2014 17:39
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Hopefully we get options for KING this week. The stock price right now assumes that their revenue will collapse immediately. It's trading at a PE below 10.
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Mar 31, 2014 18:48
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Yeah I feel like the market is overcompensating out of fear of Zynga 2.0. One thing I have noticed with King is that a lot of my friends who are way too smart to play something as stupid as farmville all are addicted to candy crush. (though I don't know how much money they've spent.)
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Mar 31, 2014 19:02
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nebby posted:Yeah I feel like the market is overcompensating out of fear of Zynga 2.0. One thing I have noticed with King is that a lot of my friends who are way too smart to play something as stupid as farmville all are addicted to candy crush. (though I don't know how much money they've spent.) I played Candy Crush, went "Oh, its a match 3 game like those 4 I've played in the past." So I gave it an hour and then got hit with this popup, "Hey! You're out of lives, want to buy 5 more for $0.99? Or you can bug your friends on Facebook to get more lives!" Then I uninstalled. Apparently there's $590 million in people that didn't.
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Mar 31, 2014 19:13
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Gamesguy posted:Took some profits earlier, letting most it it ride though. (This is the point where the market takes off and you pocket your 200% gain in two days  )
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Mar 31, 2014 19:32
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Arkane posted:Hopefully we get options for KING this week. The stock price right now assumes that their revenue will collapse immediately. It's trading at a PE below 10. ZNGA's revenue consistently went up until it reached a tipping point and they have brought in progressively less revenue every quarter since that point. Last quarter KING's revenue went down for the first time. Now history doesn't always repeat itself but I think you need balls of steel to even go near this stock either as a bull or bear.
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Mar 31, 2014 19:37
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I can't wait until this thread is the "follow Gamesguy's trades for great goon profits" newsletter.
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Mar 31, 2014 19:45
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I can't wait until this thread is the "follow Gamesguy's trades for great goon profits" newsletter. More like "Call 1-800-Gamesguy and leave me a message with your e-mail address and I'll send you my free report on how to become GOON RICH...".
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Apr 1, 2014 00:05
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More like bitch because someone else is getting rich and doesn't care if you know it thread. Anyone who trades options trying to match his trades would have to be pretty dumb.
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Apr 1, 2014 01:18
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FlashBangBob posted:I played Candy Crush, went "Oh, its a match 3 game like those 4 I've played in the past." So I gave it an hour and then got hit with this popup, "Hey! You're out of lives, want to buy 5 more for $0.99? Or you can bug your friends on Facebook to get more lives!" Apparently you don't appreciate the genius. They created scarcity with a video game. Candy Crush the game isn't the impressive part. It's the monetization that is brilliant.
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Apr 1, 2014 03:07
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tbp posted:Figured this would be the only place that might know: are ISDA contracts asset class specific? Insofar OTC derivatives are an asset class I guess
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Apr 1, 2014 03:16
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Bashez posted:Apparently you don't appreciate the genius. They created scarcity with a video game. Candy Crush the game isn't the impressive part. It's the monetization that is brilliant. The monetization is brilliant only because 1) They took the monetization plan of an Arcade and applied it to a mobile game and 2) people bought it. Its something that still makes me scratch my head -- who would pay $1 to try a puzzle again that has real, statistical odds that they may not beat it (and have to pay again)? There's thousands of completely free match-3 games on app stores that don't take this approach and don't get 1% of the traffic CC gets. I love that King is making buckets of revenue with such a low P/E, but it's this logic that I think is putting fear into that stock price. They need an original game before I'd take the dive and invest. (This is why I wish Supercell would go public and I could dump all my cash in there).
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Apr 1, 2014 04:59
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FlashBangBob posted:The monetization is brilliant only because 1) They took the monetization plan of an Arcade and applied it to a mobile game and 2) people bought it. Its something that still makes me scratch my head -- who would pay $1 to try a puzzle again that has real, statistical odds that they may not beat it (and have to pay again)? There's thousands of completely free match-3 games on app stores that don't take this approach and don't get 1% of the traffic CC gets. I downloaded candy crush and played it a bit to see wtf I have been missing out on, I enjoyed it but really don't get it. This genre of game seems very far tilted on the luck side of the "luck vs skill" spectrum, but maybe I just suck.
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Apr 1, 2014 05:05
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Candy Crush is just a mainstream application of the money-gated feelings of accomplishment that game companies have used to bilk neckbeards for MMO gold and Warhammer figures for years now.
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Apr 1, 2014 06:58
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I think a real question is whether they'll effectively destroy the model by exploiting it. I think many players will have their guard up next time they see a game with similar monetization mechanics, just like many gamers now balk when they see invasive social stuff in games (because they learned from last round of FarmTown and what not). The whole thing just seems very precarious. I'm sure it'll cycle back around again (as it has before), but the territory might be scorched for a while. I obviously don't know what the next trend will be in casual gaming, but it seems unlikely one company will be able to stay ahead of the game for very long - there just isn't the kind of moats you see with "big games" companies: no big IP, very little technical skills required, etc...
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Apr 1, 2014 07:15
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Shear Modulus posted:Candy Crush is just a mainstream application of the money-gated feelings of accomplishment that game companies have used to bilk neckbeards for MMO gold and Warhammer figures for years now. Yeah but neckbeards are a lot more prone to the "obsessively play one thing for months/years/decades" than your standard mobile game customer.
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Apr 1, 2014 08:08
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How long do you think people will be playing Candy Crush for another 6 months, a year? Is the success repeatable? What moat does the company have? Good on the management, they timed the IPO well, got a ton more than Draw something
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Apr 1, 2014 09:47
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mik posted:Just equities - extended hours is from from 4am to 8pm.
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Apr 1, 2014 12:04
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lightpole posted:More like bitch because someone else is getting rich and doesn't care if you know it thread. Anyone who trades options trying to match his trades would have to be pretty dumb. I actually like that he takes speculative positions, posts when he establishes them, and then posts the winners. Lots of people talk about their trades with survivorship bias and never include the lovely ones at all. GG is really open both about how much of his portfolio he's speculative with, what he's doing, and what the consequences are. Which is about as good a source to learn from as any. But I think there's a risk of multiple posters blindly aping his trades and then get double pissy because he's rich and they lost money by trying to be him. nebby seems to understand what he's getting into before jumping.
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Apr 1, 2014 14:02
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So MNKD suspended trading after dropping below $4 yesterday (which I guess is typical for a biotech right before a big FDA thing). I'll admit I picked up some more shares when it bottomed out. I finished reading most of the FDA docs over the weekend and I'm not all that worried about the Type-2 outcome. Type-1 diabeetus might be a no-go, though. Tomorrow is the Adcom decision.  In related news, my girlfriend thinks I am the most boringest person ever because I read through that poo poo on a weekend 
FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Apr 1, 2014 |
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Apr 1, 2014 14:04
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FreelanceSocialist posted:In related news, my girlfriend thinks I am the most boringest person ever because I read through that poo poo on a weekend
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Apr 1, 2014 14:42
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It made me realize that I need to find another market segment to dig into because pharma trials are not my thing.
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Apr 1, 2014 15:00
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Josh Lyman posted:Where am I getting the 8am-6pm from then? Some ECNs don't participate in the full extended hours trading. For example ARCA and Direct Edge are open all the way from 4apm to 8pm, but I believe BATS only opens at 8am. We only use ARCA in extended hours for liquidity and routing reasons. mik fucked around with this message at 15:21 on Apr 1, 2014 |
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Apr 1, 2014 15:19
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FreelanceSocialist posted:In related news, my girlfriend thinks I am the most boringest person ever because I read through that poo poo on a weekend Tell her you're reading it so you can afford a better girlfriend.
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Apr 1, 2014 16:10
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Josh Lyman posted:Where am I getting the 8am-6pm from then? Does your broker not let you trade beyond those time periods?
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Apr 1, 2014 17:09
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Alright so speaking of games, what do we think of Microsoft given Xbox One's reception? I don't really know enough about the expectations and the financials to have a firm opinion. If it's only a small fraction of its expected future revenues then I don't suppose I care. However, if it is considered to be a core business, I know that the reception of Titanfall has been tepid and that was sort of being banked on as the Playstation-killer. There's many, many months before we see highly anticipated Xbox One games beyond Titanfall. Looking at this as a possible earnings play, which is in 3 weeks.
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Apr 1, 2014 17:12
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nebby posted:I closed this thing out for a 25% gain, good enough for me. The last two trading days feel like the market is running out of steam. Well now I just feel bad. Btw here's my non-technical reasoning behind that trade. The market decline over the past was largely caused by biotechs and growth stocks within the nasdaq. If you watch the intraday action the S&P really didn't look like it wanted to go down much and even small caps which usually leads the way in market corrections was doing better than the aforementioned sectors. So once the NQ hit oversold territory I jumped in with that trade. Dwight Eisenhower posted:I actually like that he takes speculative positions, posts when he establishes them, and then posts the winners. I hope no one actually does this with options. I only post my higher confidence trades speculating on moves I think will last at least a couple of days, but unless you're looking over my shoulder in real time being a few hours late can and do make a massive difference. Gamesguy fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Apr 1, 2014 |
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Apr 1, 2014 17:43
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Arkane posted:Alright so speaking of games, what do we think of Microsoft given Xbox One's reception? I don't really know enough about the expectations and the financials to have a firm opinion. If it's only a small fraction of its expected future revenues then I don't suppose I care. However, if it is considered to be a core business, I know that the reception of Titanfall has been tepid and that was sort of being banked on as the Playstation-killer. There's many, many months before we see highly anticipated Xbox One games beyond Titanfall. 2.5% of their gross margin was from hardware in their previous earnings. Don't trade them based on your perception of one game's success. 
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Apr 1, 2014 17:54
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Gamesguy posted:Well now I just feel bad. I don't do short term trades with "real" money anyway so the net effect here is it really just acted as a hedge against my bond portfolio, which was helpful.Since I'm in a gambling mood for whatever reason I opened a long strangle on APOL into earnings around 33.5/35. The stock has beat and made huge gains on earnings the last five times iirc, so the expectations are high. Estimize expects a large beat. However the company has problems with accreditation and is shutting down schools and the fundamental thesis is weak. It's a classic "this company makes money but might be a ponzi scheme" situation. I think either we'll see another "routine" huge beat, but anything less than that will cause a panic since it will make investors worry the chickens are coming home to roost finally. (Similar to when AAPL 'beats' for less than expected yet still sells off.) I basically need to see a 10% move in either direction to make a profit. Now be amazed at my ability to pick the most efficiently priced stock on the market that barely moves due to earnings
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Apr 1, 2014 17:56
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Since King just went public a couple days before the end of the first quarter, do they still have to do an earnings call for that quarter? Or will their first earnings not be until after Q2?
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