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lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

I'd like to buy you a beer some time ronya.

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icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Jonad posted:

Look at all these people who think My Imaginary GF is posting seriously.

Clearly, the next six pages will be critical in the success or failure of this thread.

You can never tell, there are definitely people that nuts out there and in positions of power.

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro
https://time.com/3315701/thailand-kittisak-soomsri-human-rights-southeast-asia-coup-general-prayuth-chan-ocha-superstition-bizarre/

quote:

Thailand’s Military Ruler Grows Increasingly Eccentric but No Less Dangerous

General Prayuth Chan-ocha has become highly superstitious. But as the continued crackdown shows, his eccentricity should not distract from the ruthlessness of the regime

On Friday, Kittisak Soomsri was abducted from outside his teacher-training college in Bangkok. The 47-year-old was a Red Shirt supporter of ousted Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and a critic of the coup d’état of May 22.

Frantic relatives say they received an anonymous telephone call soon afterwards, stating that he had been taken into military custody and would be released after seven days if they kept quiet. Nothing further has been heard and now the junta now denies having him.

“Kittisak Soomsri’s enforced disappearance shows the Thai military’s wanton disregard for basic rights under martial law,” said Brad Adams, Asia director for Human Rights Watch, in a statement Tuesday.

The case is a grim reminder that beyond Thailand’s beautiful temples and beaches a totalitarian state is now in operation. As is common with such states, there is also a ruling strongman given to making odd and rambling pronouncements.

Gruff coup leader General Prayuth Chan-ocha, who has now named himself Prime Minister as well as head of the junta council and chief of the armed forces, has taken to giving regular TV appearances in which he bemoans the state of Thai society and outlines his simplistic, homespun solutions.

He has told residents of Bangkok to each pick up to 20 water hyacinths from the Chao Phraya River to help unclog the iconic waterway. Farmers, he says, should only grow rice once a year to keep the grain’s price up. The poor need to alleviate their woes by “working harder” and the indebted must return to solvency by “stopping shopping.”

If such dictates faintly echo the on-the-spot guidance dispensed by North Korea’s tyrannical Kim clan, then Prayuth’s growing superstitiousness is reminiscent of Burma’s former military rulers, who governed with the advice of numerologists, mystics and astrologers.

In a high-profile speech last week, Prayuth said, “Today, I have a sore throat, a pain in the neck. Someone said there are people putting curses on me.” His solution was to have so much protective holy water poured over him that he “shivered all over.”

Buddha statues and religious idols were deployed to Government House on Monday to ward off malevolent spirits, reports Reuters. And according to a junta spokesman, Prayuth’s desk has now been repositioned according to the Chinese geomantic art of feng shui.

On Friday, Prayuth will outline his one-year plan for returning Thailand to democracy. But critics of the coup are not hopeful. The case of Kittisak — and the hundreds of other cases of alleged extrajudicial detention, torture and other abuses — illustrate that Prayuth is not merely an eccentric. There is real menace beneath his madness.
:ughh:

This stuff is meant for domestic consumption, where it's taken seriously. Thaksin used to fly to Burma to see Than Shwe's revered fortune teller and loved to make a big show of his fake superstitious beliefs and so on. Prayuth is surely trying to ape that. Nonethless, when reported in the Western press it looks as ridiculous as it is. A hit piece, for sure, but not inaccurate.

ReindeerF fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Sep 13, 2014

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TT81o4hL4c

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

lemonadesweetheart posted:

I'd like to buy you a beer some time ronya.

I wouldn't say no to Archives or Platinum...

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

ReindeerF posted:

https://time.com/3315701/thailand-kittisak-soomsri-human-rights-southeast-asia-coup-general-prayuth-chan-ocha-superstition-bizarre/
:ughh:

This stuff is meant for domestic consumption, where it's taken seriously. Thaksin used to fly to Burma to see Than Shwe's revered fortune teller and loved to make a big show of his fake superstitious beliefs and so on. Prayuth is surely trying to ape that. Nonethless, when reported in the Western press it looks as ridiculous as it is. A hit piece, for sure, but not inaccurate.
Sounds like Prayuth took the ice bucket challenge!

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
speaking of clan[sea]chat

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

Meanwhile, Thai Elvis and his wife left the hospital for home in Hua Hin today. Kind of wonder if this is the end and he's now beyond medical help.

Sokol
Jul 2, 2012
I'm just asking questions.

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2014/09/15/corruption-scandal-junta-failing-its-first-test/



e(1): Wrong link. Blerk.

e(2): To add some actual substance to this post - the NCPO made a big show of displaying its recent 250-million baht renovation of government offices to members of the press. The highlight of the tour was a visit to the Cabinet’s meeting room, newly-outfitted with 89 counter-surveillance microphones. The cost was stated to be 145,000 baht per unit; Panadda claimed that the Thai Cabinet was now “using the same technology as the White House.” As the story filtered through social media, it was quickly discovered that the microphones, manufactured in Germany, normally retailed for about ฿99,000 in Thailand. The government, in other words, paid a premium of ฿7.8 million (about $240,000 U.S. dollars). Some disparity in price is not unusual in public procurement, but in this case the NCPO appears to have paid exorbitant fees for other pieces of equipment. See: http://en.isnhotnews.com/?p=48261

Prayuth has said that the matter will be investigated, while declining to provide any additional details. It’s unclear whether this was a case of official impropriety, but the story has already been seized upon by dissidents and members of the opposition as ‘hard evidence’ of corruption. My guess is that either (a) the procurement contract was deliberately over-budgeted to divert funds to a political ally(b) a bureaucrat simply pocketed the difference. Both are pretty common occurrences in Thai politics.

To no one's surprise, The Bangkok Post is reporting this as 'wasteful spending' rather than misappropriation of funds.

Sokol fucked around with this message at 23:57 on Sep 16, 2014

MothraAttack
Apr 28, 2008

Gail Wynand posted:

Meanwhile, Thai Elvis and his wife left the hospital for home in Hua Hin today. Kind of wonder if this is the end and he's now beyond medical help.

He's been functionally brain dead for the past few years following a stroke is my understanding.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

I thought that was the wife.

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro
No one knows, but the wife was first rumored to be in the produce aisle. He's been possibly lucid as recently as a year or so back - tough to say. I think we're in a King Fahd situation, basically.

Constant Hamprince
Oct 24, 2010

by exmarx
College Slice

Oracle posted:

I thought that was the wife.

Both Elvis and Bride of Elvis mentally Left the Building pre-coup.

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cpr3W-x9TUU

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS7hZhO0ee8

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

ronya posted:

I wouldn't say no to Archives or Platinum...

I need your email address or some other way to contact you.

Sorry for making GBS threads up the thread.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

lemonadesweetheart posted:

I need your email address or some other way to contact you.

Sorry for making GBS threads up the thread.

e: scrubbed

ronya fucked around with this message at 13:20 on Sep 17, 2014

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

okay delete it now.

Here's some cool news about getting charged with sedition three times in a day

http://www.therakyatpost.com/news/2014/09/08/student-faces-three-sedition-charges-day

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/17/thailand-murders-two-british-brothers-questioned-koh-tao

On Wednesday Thai prime minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha, who is also army chief, appeared to suggest that only tourists who were unattractive would be safe while wearing bikinis in Thailand.

In a televised speech addressing tourist safety, he said: "There are always problems with tourist safety. They think our country is beautiful and safe so they can do whatever they want, they can wear bikinis and walk everywhere."

He added: "Can they be safe in bikinis … unless they are not beautiful?" Prayut's comments echoed remarks he made on Tuesday in which he said the behaviour of the victims should be looked into and warned that "it is not always safe everywhere".

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
the Singapore government must be positively enjoying watching the online agitators discredit themselves

even mr brown is now too moderate to be anything but a mouthpiece of the PAP, apparently

Sokol
Jul 2, 2012
Hi guys. I've got a favor to ask you all -

I'm trying to research ASEAN reactions to Japan's recent constitutional changes (viz. its reinterpretation of Article 9), but I can't find any news or scholarly work on the issue. My impression is that Southeast Asian governments generally approve of Japan's actions, albeit in a subdued fashion so as to avoid antagonizing the PRC. Is this basically correct?

Sokol fucked around with this message at 04:41 on Oct 1, 2014

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

ronya posted:

the Singapore government must be positively enjoying watching the online agitators discredit themselves

even mr brown is now too moderate to be anything but a mouthpiece of the PAP, apparently
Haha yeah, I'm impressed that the "Return our CPF" crew walked right into that trap. (Not that I am implying it was intended to be a trap.)

They aren't the brightest bulbs in the box anyway, although they are good at exploiting the complexities of public finance to confuse people. I'm divided on whether they are demagogues or just ignorant. Probably a bit of both.

I would love to see someone with a clue sit down for a debate with Roy Ngerng, it would be hilarious.

Still think the lawsuit was misguided, it gave him visibility he doesn't deserve and turned him into a martyr.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
the lawsuit is time-tested strategy: it splits radicals away from the administratively-minded academics or opportunistic careerists

the WP will both want and have to disavow Ngerng, for instance

this strategy has worked since JBJ so I don't see it changing. There's no objection to martyrdom - martyrs quickly garner an unelectable base. People who might be enchanted by a protest vote feel frightened by those protesting most noisily.

ronya fucked around with this message at 05:36 on Oct 1, 2014

Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

ronya posted:

this strategy has worked since JBJ so I don't see it changing. There's no objection to martyrdom - martyrs quickly garner an unelectable base. People who might be enchanted by a protest vote feel frightened by those protesting most noisily.
Right but JBJ was at least an MP before they went after him. Ngerng was just a mildly popular blogger who shot to international prominence as soon as he got sued. Maybe he was invited to coffee first and the message didn't get through?

There seems to be a trend of bloggers/individuals picking up popularity and then going off the grid. For example, Gilbert Goh.

Soy Division fucked around with this message at 06:33 on Oct 1, 2014

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/17/thailand-murders-two-british-brothers-questioned-koh-tao

On Wednesday Thai prime minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha, who is also army chief, appeared to suggest that only tourists who were unattractive would be safe while wearing bikinis in Thailand.

In a televised speech addressing tourist safety, he said: "There are always problems with tourist safety. They think our country is beautiful and safe so they can do whatever they want, they can wear bikinis and walk everywhere."

He added: "Can they be safe in bikinis … unless they are not beautiful?" Prayut's comments echoed remarks he made on Tuesday in which he said the behaviour of the victims should be looked into and warned that "it is not always safe everywhere".
He's since moved on to opining that Thai soap operas are too immoral and that maybe he should just write some himself.

It may not be obvious what this guy's doing in the Western world, but he's trying to step into a very large pair of boots and it ain't gonna work with soft power because he doesn't have the mojo.

lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

Grenade attack in tourist area in Kuala Lumpur. :(

Car jockey (valet) confirmed dead, 14 others injured. No links to terrorism and it's more than likely gangster poo poo but still sucks.

http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-east-asia/story/tourists-among-those-injured-grenade-explosion-jalan-bukit-bintang-2

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
Anybody noticed the Ministry of Education passing the buck to the Ministry of Social and Family Development in the Hwachong/Focus on the Family Singapore sex education dust-up?

The proxy struggle between the conservatives and the liberals continues...

whatever7
Jul 26, 2001

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
So the two Shinawatras are visiting Beijing. What's Reindeer's spin on it?

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


whatever7 posted:

So the two Shinawatras are visiting Beijing. What's Reindeer's spin on it?
I read that as Bangkok and got all excited for the return of the king.

caberham
Mar 18, 2009

by Smythe
Grimey Drawer

whatever7 posted:

So the two Shinawatras are visiting Beijing. What's Reindeer's spin on it?

Maybe they are just avoiding the Royalty? I see them hang out in Hong Kong from time to time. They really really like the Conrad hotel.

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro
Are they? There's no scuttlebutt about the event that I've heard, so I don't have an opinion. Could just be a visit, I dunno. Could be trying to shore up support for a return as well, I dunno. Maybe they were craving some good dumplings?

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

ReindeerF posted:

He's since moved on to opining that Thai soap operas are too immoral and that maybe he should just write some himself.

It may not be obvious what this guy's doing in the Western world, but he's trying to step into a very large pair of boots and it ain't gonna work with soft power because he doesn't have the mojo.

I'm oddly intrigued by Prayuth-chan's efforts.

Why can't he do it with soft power? He and his buddies nominally control bucketloads of government cash, right? That's always a good start.

whatever7
Jul 26, 2001

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

ReindeerF posted:

Are they? There's no scuttlebutt about the event that I've heard, so I don't have an opinion. Could just be a visit, I dunno. Could be trying to shore up support for a return as well, I dunno. Maybe they were craving some good dumplings?

Do they have any relative left they can use?

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro

whatever7 posted:

Do they have any relative left they can use?
They're Thai-Chinese, so I'm sure they have about 5,000,000 relatives left! Honest answer, I assume they'd find someone, but I think the larger issue is that there's not going to be an election for them to run in anytime soon.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

I'm oddly intrigued by Prayuth-chan's efforts.

Why can't he do it with soft power? He and his buddies nominally control bucketloads of government cash, right? That's always a good start.
I'm not a fantastic student of history, but my read on technocratic authoritarian juntas is that they either have to go full bore with the violent oppression or they die the death of a thousand cuts, especially because as technocrats they're doing a lot of stuff and doing stuff always creates more reactions than not doing stuff. When you're in charge you get blamed for things. When you're autocratically in charge, you're sucking up all the air in the room and there's no democratic pressure release valve. In the end, then, what happens is that the other powerful people who aren't part of your clique get tired of being out of power (e.g. Marcos/Aquino) and they start chipping away - this has already started a bit. The people, too, grow more and more disillusioned over time and then the other powerful people find a way to rope them into coalitions and use them to really begin to cause serious discontent. In the end you face the choice of offering some return to self-governance or you violently oppress them.

Right now it's early days and the threats and arrests and charges made early on are still keeping things tamped down. I don't General-Chan's got it in him to kill tens of thousands of people, so when the dissent really ramps up it's going to get interesting if we haven't hit the milestone they're waiting for, the succession event, which is the big game changer.

What's been interesting to see at the moment is that the authority is limited. I had always wondered to what degree the regional factions were independent of the central authority and it's playing out in real time. The military has a good strong hold on Bangkok and their decrees are being followed here, but they clearly don't have a hold over the Surat mafia and the Phuket mafia, which is giving them fits.

They've made some progress in Phuket, but it's largely been shadow progress and the mafias are still running things. Like they made a big deal of busting up the taxi mafia in Phuket. They're famous for charging everyone, including all Thai people, hundreds of Baht for what would be a 100 Baht trip in Bangkok, for example, as well as brutalizing people who challenge their control and randomly beating people for not using their services, picking up relatives or parking in one of their spots. Anyway, Prayuth's people made a big deal about busting it up and switching taxis to meters. So, when you go to Phuket now, you'll get a jacked up metered taxi that is often more expensive than the former method and driven/owned by the same taxi mafia. They didn't accomplish anything. Similarly, look at the circus the Surat police (famously corrupt) have made of the Koh Tao murders. Prayuth had no choice but to just follow their lead after it became clear he couldn't control them as they rolled out suspect after suspect and theory after theory. So now he's stuck with the British and the Myanmar Government's representatives on the island turning the story inside out and releasing details of how the Burmese suspects were beaten and forced to talk - absolute circus. His lack of control and need to seem in-control have resulted in a total farce that has him being protested in person in Europe and elsewhere.

Now these are just the high profile cases and they're in the South, which is strong yellow (generally Prayuth-aligned) territory, it's not the source of the political opposition, that's up North and Northeast. Is this a case of not being able to control your friends without breaking up your coalition? Or is it a sign that there's probably way more subversive, uncontrolled activity going on up North and in Isaan than is understood?

CronoGamer
May 15, 2004

why did this happen
Listened to a talk one of my professors was giving at a book launch yesterday, and an interesting idea came up. One of the profs pointed to Jokowi's victory in Indonesia and the establishment's immediate furious reaction of removing direct election of local officials (mayor and below I think) as a way of preventing any future Jokowis from cropping up. The interesting part, though, was when he went on to muse over whether this was the first step in turning Jokowi into a new Thaksin and Golkar/Gerindra/PD into the new Yellow Shirt movement, furious at outsiders shaking things up. There are obviously a lot of differences, including Thaksin's considerably greater wealth and the whole monarchy dynamic, but it was an interesting possibility that hadn't crossed my mind yet.

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro
I'm not at all familiar with politics down there, but I couldn't believe they allowed the guy to get this far. I guess my question is whether his ascent occurred in the chaos of a power vacuum in a relatively nascent democracy, since he's really only the second (?) elected leader after SBY, or whether he's got his own power base to work from or both or neither or what?

His whole story is like too magical to actually have happened, heh. Thaksin's easier to grok for me. Insanely wealthy, plots a political takeover of the country so that he can further his wealth and uses the tools available to achieve this goal. Jokowi seems to actually care, from all accounts, and those kinds of people generally get suffocated in the bathtub in places like this, don't they?

whatever7
Jul 26, 2001

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

ReindeerF posted:

They're Thai-Chinese, so I'm sure they have about 5,000,000 relatives left! Honest answer, I assume they'd find someone, but I think the larger issue is that there's not going to be an election for them to run in anytime soon.
...

The Junta won't "return to democracy" in a year? What are the Red Shirts going to vote for?

ReindeerF
Apr 20, 2002

Rubber Dinghy Rapids Bro

whatever7 posted:

The Junta won't "return to democracy" in a year? What are the Red Shirts going to vote for?
I believe they didn't name a date, or that they named some nebulous date and then bounced it around. I believe (not sure) that the general consensus is that they're waiting for the old man to go on up to the spirit in the sky so they can control succession and then claim that this event require stability, so that they can then put things off even further. This event is what plays havoc with the calendar. If it ends up taking until after Songkran next year or more then the Red Shirts and allied forces aren't going to wait, but if it happens before or around then, then it could work. Of course we don't know what succession is going to look like either yet, which is why they're planning to hang on to power until they can shape that event. They don't want Whopper Jr. taking things over because he's at odds with a shitload of the ruling elite and they want to make sure they're managing the event.

So, my guess - I could easily be wrong - is that the Red Shirts are planning to wait for the junta to overplay its hand, but if this takes too long the grassroots will undermine the strategic effort and demand action. Generally, they've been much smarter and more patient about playing the long game because tiiiiimmmeeee is on their side, yes it is.

wid
Sep 7, 2005
Living in paradise (only bombed once)
Jokowi's ascent is simply because of the right moment in Indonesia's experiment with democracy. In the 10 years of SBY's rule, the voters have been so disillusioned and pessimistic with the political parties that the politicians had to turn to random celebrities. I'm not kidding. Imagine your local comedians and soap opera actors and actresses running for senate. A good chunk of the people sitting in parliament now are non-career politicians but simply famous or used-to-be-famous people. People are so sick of politicians they'd vote for anyone else with a pretty face. The parties are desperate for anyone who'd appear electable, so they reached out to local, well-known people also even if they were not old time career politicians (aka. people who actually did something with their lives instead of spending their entire time arguing how much of the cut of the people's money they should get). This is how Jokowi got into the ticket for the mayor of Solo/Surakarta. But he was not alone. A number of other people got voted into office for their actual work ethics and results. The mayor of Surabaya is famous for this, a modest, regular looking woman who appears to fit more in the local market than in a mayor's office. These people keep popping up because the parties are desperate for likable, non-shady looking assholes to put on the posters.

If you're surprised the powers-that=be let Jokowi got this far, you should look into his running-mate for Governor of Jakarta: Basuki Tjahja Purnama (also known as Ahok, his chinese nickname). This guy is even more hardcore than Jokowi. It's like he has a deathwish or something. First of all, he's Chinese. And a Christian (though he said he doesn't have a religion except the faith in Jesus Christ so the guy is practically an agnostic). And he yelled and screamed at corrupt officials all the time and made his meetings recorded and published on youtube so the people could see how utterly incompetent the officials are. It's like he's Gordon Ramsay and the governor's office is Hell's Kitchen. He famously brushed aside a parliament member who is also not-so-secretly a gang boss who controlled a part of an area in Jakarta. For decades, this guy's gang had controlled an area called Tanah Abang which is a large public road, closed it down and made it into a market, from which they siphoned illegal tax from the merchants there. Ahok cleared the poo poo out of the place and moved the merchants to a proper place for a market, taxed by the province. Then when his political party, Gerindra (Prabowo's party), made the push for the legislation to remove voting for executive offices, he quit the party. So right now he has no backing whatsoever other than obviously Jokowi still got his back (note that he and Jokowi belonged to different parties but right it seems like Ahok is in full-on hate mode for political parties).

When Jokowi took office as governor of Jakarta, he kept a subtle, non-confrontational approach to problems. This was only possible because Ahok acted as his bumper, being vocal and confrontational with anyone hindering their work. Kinda like good cop bad cop thing. It's likely Jokowi will do the same with his vice president, Jusuf Kalla.

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Soy Division
Aug 12, 2004

ReindeerF posted:

So, my guess - I could easily be wrong - is that the Red Shirts are planning to wait for the junta to overplay its hand, but if this takes too long the grassroots will undermine the strategic effort and demand action. Generally, they've been much smarter and more patient about playing the long game because tiiiiimmmeeee is on their side, yes it is.
Pretty much. The whole technocratic military regime thing only works if the military regime has a basic level of competence. Which these jokers don't have.

If Thaksin is relying on the generals to hang themselves they're doing an exemplary job thus far.

I was at Centralworld this week and noticed an event being held by some kind of mass youth movement patronised by Sirindhorn. Big rear end portrait of her on the stage, few hundred people in attendance in identical t-shirts. Looked like a clean cut hiso crowd, definite yellow shirt demographic. I wonder if she's working to develop a personal mass power base in anticipation of the inevitable...

ronya posted:

Anybody noticed the Ministry of Education passing the buck to the Ministry of Social and Family Development in the Hwachong/Focus on the Family Singapore sex education dust-up?

The proxy struggle between the conservatives and the liberals continues...
Haha, yeah. I especially liked it when the MSF minister attacked GS and Google for supporting Pink Dot. Have a feeling he will find himself in a new job come 2016..

It's fairly clear what is going on to anyone paying attention: the very top PAP people have liberal personal views but need to keep the evangelicals and Muslims on side.

Soy Division fucked around with this message at 13:58 on Oct 25, 2014

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