Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
slap me silly
Nov 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

Voltage posted:

I have a general understanding but I'm doing this to learn more - I'm not going to dump a crazy ton of money in to this to start, just $1-2,000.

From what I understand I need to have a nice blend of stocks, funds, and bonds.

Doesn't sound like you know what you want or what you're doing yet! Do some more reading maybe :) If you want to learn about buying stocks, buy stocks and have fun chatz with the gambling trading crew here. If you want to learn about mutual funds, equity/bond ratio, and general portfolio maintenance, pop over to the long-term investing thread.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Dominoes
Sep 20, 2007

Voltage posted:

So I just signed up for a capone sharebuilder account - is this really as simple as just buying and selling whatever stocks I want?

Is this literally just like gambling?
Yes. You're off to a good start by realizing that. Check out Flash Boys. It'll give you a good initial perspective on how the markets operate.

Dominoes fucked around with this message at 00:29 on Dec 31, 2014

Zerstorung
Jun 27, 2008
Heh, was totally expecting a down day today but I look away for a couple hours and VUZI goes nuts.

Irish Joe
Jul 23, 2007

by Lowtax

Dominoes posted:

Yes. You're off to a good start by realizing that. Check out Flash Boys. It'll give you a good initial perspective on how the markets operate.

You could just say "the house always wins" and save him the $16.

Foma
Oct 1, 2004
Hello, My name is Lip Synch. Right now, I'm making a post that is anti-bush or something Micheal Moore would be proud of because I and the rest of my team lefty friends (koba1t included) need something to circle jerk to.
Dividends are so nice this time of year. Why yes I would like $600 today.

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost
.

melon cat fucked around with this message at 05:41 on Mar 16, 2019

fruition
Feb 1, 2014

Voltage posted:

I have a general understanding but I'm doing this to learn more - I'm not going to dump a crazy ton of money in to this to start, just $1-2,000.

From what I understand I need to have a nice blend of stocks, funds, and bonds.

First, hit the longterm investing thread, then max out your 401k at least up until your employer match. Then pay off all your consumer debt with an interest rate higher than 4%. Then open up a vanguard Roth ira and max out your contributions for 2014 and 2015, that's like $11k. Once you've done that then max out your 401k competely for 2014, that's like $17.5k. Then if you still want to trade stocks you should have at least another $10k-$20k of after tax cash lying around that you're completely 100% willing to lose. If this isn't your situation then you should exit the thread and not look back until you are in this situation.

$2K isn't poo poo in this game unless you're a balls to the wall options wizard.

Faded Sloth
Nov 22, 2013

baron zen
That was very insightful. I was considering dropping a couple $K in this but I'm still a student. No debt and ~$5k lying around from working. Is the above still what you would recommend for a person in my situation or something different?

mindphlux
Jan 8, 2004

by R. Guyovich

fruition posted:

First, hit the longterm investing thread, then max out your 401k at least up until your employer match. Then pay off all your consumer debt with an interest rate higher than 4%. Then open up a vanguard Roth ira and max out your contributions for 2014 and 2015, that's like $11k. Once you've done that then max out your 401k competely for 2014, that's like $17.5k. Then if you still want to trade stocks you should have at least another $10k-$20k of after tax cash lying around that you're completely 100% willing to lose. If this isn't your situation then you should exit the thread and not look back until you are in this situation.

$2K isn't poo poo in this game unless you're a balls to the wall options wizard.

loving sticky this post

Dominoes
Sep 20, 2007

Faded Sloth posted:

That was very insightful. I was considering dropping a couple $K in this but I'm still a student. No debt and ~$5k lying around from working. Is the above still what you would recommend for a person in my situation or something different?
Max out your retirement counts , but free to play around in the market. If you stick to long stocks that trade on NYSE and NASDAQ, you probably won't lose everything. Have fun, and don't take financial news seriously.

Pron on VHS
Nov 14, 2005

Blood Clots
Sweat Dries
Bones Heal
Suck it Up and Keep Wrestling

Faded Sloth posted:

That was very insightful. I was considering dropping a couple $K in this but I'm still a student. No debt and ~$5k lying around from working. Is the above still what you would recommend for a person in my situation or something different?

It's the smart, responsible plan but if you want to have fun certainly feel free to throw your disposable income into a brokerage account. Just remember that commission fees are fixed (not a %) so your smaller trades of several hundred dollars will cause your few thousand to be eaten up by commission fees faster than someone trading larger volume. And treat that money like gambling, fun money...not an actual investment which you will need for an important expense later.

DrSunshine
Mar 23, 2009

Did I just say that out loud~~?!!!
If you want to get your feet wet trading in the stock market, why not save that real money in some low-cost index funds and then play around with paper trading? It's the sensible option for those of us who are not millionaires.

fruition
Feb 1, 2014

Faded Sloth posted:

That was very insightful. I was considering dropping a couple $K in this but I'm still a student. No debt and ~$5k lying around from working. Is the above still what you would recommend for a person in my situation or something different?

Depends on what your goals and risk tolerance are. You are (presumably) young? And it sounds to me like you have a high risk tolerance and wouldn't mind losing some of your money if you have to chance to make some. If you don't need it for something important in the next couple years then I'd say go for it. With $5k to gamble I'd stick to only "investing" in one or two stocks, or hitting up an ETF or index fund through Vanguard that matches the S&P500. The stocks will be much more fun though.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

melon cat posted:

Interesting that you mentioned that, because I wanted to ask- what are some good dividend-paying stocks to add to a portfolio? I was considering McDonald's, P&G, and GE just to increase my dividend payouts.

I'm personally holding American Electric Power. Liked it so far through 3 dividends. I think its a decent company, not amazing but decent. And boring. Just the way I like my stocks.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Just FYI, long term capital gains are 0% for this year, but from what I can tell, they are still 0% next year, if you're in the bottom 2 tax brackets, which includes up to taxable income of $74,900 if married filing joint or $37,450 if filing single.

sleepy gary
Jan 11, 2006

Josh Lyman posted:

Just FYI, long term capital gains are 0% for this year, but from what I can tell, they are still 0% next year, if you're in the bottom 2 tax brackets, which includes up to taxable income of $74,900 if married filing joint or $37,450 if filing single.

But my short term gains :cry:

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Josh Lyman posted:

Just FYI, long term capital gains are 0% for this year, but from what I can tell, they are still 0% next year, if you're in the bottom 2 tax brackets, which includes up to taxable income of $74,900 if married filing joint or $37,450 if filing single.

Would be nice to be so rich you could work out an arrangement to delay income for one year.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Oh yeah, major caveat: any short term losses and/or carryover from previous years will eat into your long term gains before you can claim them, so trying to take advantage of the 0% tax rate may not work if your short term losses outnumber your long term gains.

sleepy gary
Jan 11, 2006

Josh Lyman posted:

Oh yeah, major caveat: any short term losses and/or carryover from previous years will eat into your long term gains before you can claim them, so trying to take advantage of the 0% tax rate may not work if your short term losses outnumber your long term gains.

Wowwwww I did not know that and I'm really glad I didn't do a thing I was thinking of doing now.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


DNova posted:

Wowwwww I did not know that and I'm really glad I didn't do a thing I was thinking of doing now.
Yeah, there's a small chance I could be wrong, but from what I've read and looking over my 2013 return, your short term gains/losses are combined with your long term gains/losses first on line 16 of your Schedule D. THEN it asks if you have a combined gain or loss. ONLY if you have a combined gain does it then compute your tax exposure for long term gains based on your tax bracket.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

Josh Lyman posted:

Yeah, there's a small chance I could be wrong, but from what I've read and looking over my 2013 return, your short term gains/losses are combined with your long term gains/losses first on line 16 of your Schedule D. THEN it asks if you have a combined gain or loss. ONLY if you have a combined gain does it then compute your tax exposure for long term gains based on your tax bracket.

Yup. If you're tax harvesting losses, you shouldn't be cashing in any long term gains. I foolishly did this a few years ago because I am stupid and dumb and thought long term and short term were calculated separately.

sleepy gary
Jan 11, 2006

District Selectman posted:

Yup. If you're tax harvesting losses, you shouldn't be cashing in any long term gains. I foolishly did this a few years ago because I am stupid and dumb and thought long term and short term were calculated separately.

Well I would have done the same thing (I am also stupid and dumb). I don't do my own taxes so I'm at a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to knowing those details.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


DNova posted:

Well I would have done the same thing (I am also stupid and dumb). I don't do my own taxes so I'm at a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to knowing those details.
Don't worry. I do my own taxes and this isn't especially clear since people always talk about short and long term gains being taxed differently.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
It was the first time I'd ever had long term gains!

Faded Sloth posted:

That was very insightful. I was considering dropping a couple $K in this but I'm still a student. No debt and ~$5k lying around from working. Is the above still what you would recommend for a person in my situation or something different?

If you have a good degree that will probably get you a good job, go ahead and throw it in a Roth, and invest it in the Vanguard total world stock ETF. I wouldn't do just S&P, personally.

Also, with that amount of money, who really cares about return? If it returns 10%, 20% or -40%, it's a drop in the bucket really. At this point in your life it's more about just getting dollars saved vs any kind of return. You can make up any losses by working like, an extra 20 hours in a year, and dumping it into your Roth. It's nothing.

That's what I would do if I knew I didn't need the money any time soon. It will be very boring but effective.

If you might need the money though, do nothing and keep it in cash. There is no reason to trade stocks when you have $5k to your name to be honest.

Eldred
Feb 19, 2004
Weight gain is impossible.

fruition posted:

First, hit the longterm investing thread, then max out your 401k at least up until your employer match. Then pay off all your consumer debt with an interest rate higher than 4%. Then open up a vanguard Roth ira and max out your contributions for 2014 and 2015, that's like $11k. Once you've done that then max out your 401k competely for 2014, that's like $17.5k. Then if you still want to trade stocks you should have at least another $10k-$20k of after tax cash lying around that you're completely 100% willing to lose. If this isn't your situation then you should exit the thread and not look back until you are in this situation.

$2K isn't poo poo in this game unless you're a balls to the wall options wizard.

Can you explain where you're getting those numbers? (11k and 17.5k). I'm seeing $5500 on IRS' website: http://www.irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/Plan-Participant,-Employee/Retirement-Topics-IRA-Contribution-Limits

Not being a dick and aware that I'm missing something, I just want to know how to keep track of what I should contribute in the future :)

spf3million
Sep 27, 2007

hit 'em with the rhythm

Eldred posted:

Can you explain where you're getting those numbers? (11k and 17.5k). I'm seeing $5500 on IRS' website: http://www.irs.gov/Retirement-Plans/Plan-Participant,-Employee/Retirement-Topics-IRA-Contribution-Limits

Not being a dick and aware that I'm missing something, I just want to know how to keep track of what I should contribute in the future :)
$11k comes from $5,500 for the 2014 IRA limit plus $5,500 for the 2015 IRA. $17.5k is the 2014 limit for 401(k) contributions.

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost

Keisari posted:

I'm personally holding American Electric Power. Liked it so far through 3 dividends. I think its a decent company, not amazing but decent. And boring. Just the way I like my stocks.
Boring is good! I'll research AEP further, then. Thanks.

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel

fruition posted:

First, hit the longterm investing thread, then max out your 401k at least up until your employer match. Then pay off all your consumer debt with an interest rate higher than 4%. Then open up a vanguard Roth ira and max out your contributions for 2014 and 2015, that's like $11k. Once you've done that then max out your 401k competely for 2014, that's like $17.5k. Then if you still want to trade stocks you should have at least another $10k-$20k of after tax cash lying around that you're completely 100% willing to lose. If this isn't your situation then you should exit the thread and not look back until you are in this situation.

$2K isn't poo poo in this game unless you're a balls to the wall options wizard.

What about money I may want between now and age 60-? Retirement savings and personal savings are two different things. I feel people always seem to forget this when they repeat the "max out your retirement account first!" response to such questions.

I have a taxable account that holds an (admittedly conservative) portfolio of bond, money market and stock ETFs. The reason it isn't in my IRA or 401(k) is that I still want it to be semi-liquid, attaining reasonable market returns and for it to be available for potential use in 5-10 years.

60+ is a long way away for most people, if it comes at all. While maxing out your retirement plans may or may not give you non-negligible tax savings, it also locks your assets away for an extended period of time.

spf3million
Sep 27, 2007

hit 'em with the rhythm

Cheesemaster200 posted:

What about money I may want between now and age 60-? Retirement savings and personal savings are two different things. I feel people always seem to forget this when they repeat the "max out your retirement account first!" response to such questions.

I have a taxable account that holds an (admittedly conservative) portfolio of bond, money market and stock ETFs. The reason it isn't in my IRA or 401(k) is that I still want it to be semi-liquid, attaining reasonable market returns and for it to be available for potential use in 5-10 years.

60+ is a long way away for most people, if it comes at all. While maxing out your retirement plans may or may not give you non-negligible tax savings, it also locks your assets away for an extended period of time.
This is one reason to prioritize Roth IRA contributions because you can withdraw the principal any time penalty and tax free. Sort of a best of both worlds situation.

401(k)s can be rolled into Roth IRAs (if you no longer work at the same company). Principal from Roth IRA conversions can be withdrawn in 5 years penalty free. It's certainly more of a hassle to set up a 401(k)->Roth IRA conversion ladder but there is undeniably the potential for big tax benefits if you do so.

All that being said, I have some money in taxable accounts despite not maximizing all tax-sheltered accounts available to me. I do max out my Roth IRA first though, seems like a no-brainer.

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel

Saint Fu posted:

This is one reason to prioritize Roth IRA contributions because you can withdraw the principal any time penalty and tax free. Sort of a best of both worlds situation.

401(k)s can be rolled into Roth IRAs (if you no longer work at the same company). Principal from Roth IRA conversions can be withdrawn in 5 years penalty free. It's certainly more of a hassle to set up a 401(k)->Roth IRA conversion ladder but there is undeniably the potential for big tax benefits if you do so.

All that being said, I have some money in taxable accounts despite not maximizing all tax-sheltered accounts available to me. I do max out my Roth IRA first though, seems like a no-brainer.

I guess it depends on your savings goals. If you have a fixed income ladder to create certain cash flows (i.e. tuition, income supplement, etc), then the roth still can be restrictive. Also, taxable accounts are still the only way to go if you are looking for wealth creation in a 10-30 year time frame. A Roth doesn't really help you there.

Roth (and most retirement accounts) do have a the protection from Bankruptcy though, which is a benefit I feel many people overlook.

Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 23:53 on Dec 31, 2014

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!

Cheesemaster200 posted:

I have a taxable account that holds an (admittedly conservative) portfolio of bond, money market and stock ETFs. The reason it isn't in my IRA or 401(k) is that I still want it to be semi-liquid, attaining reasonable market returns and for it to be available for potential use in 5-10 years.

I've been building up an account like that, but I'm getting to the point where I want to start also contributing to my employer's 457(B) plan. It sounds pretty good to take $10,000+ pre-tax over the course of the year and invest it. Maybe I'm missing something, but there don't really seem to be any downsides so long as I'm happy to let it sit until I'm older.

dogpower
Dec 28, 2008
So I just got in the mail an "odd lot offer" to holders of 99 common shares or less of Verizon.

I bought Verizon when it was $49 U.S and the offer doesn't make sense. I use a discount broker and I take up the offer they charge me 1.50 to buy or sell a share. WTF

And if I buy, they charge me over market price.

dogpower fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Jan 1, 2015

nebby
Dec 21, 2000
resident mog
welp, thats it for 2014. i sat in medium-long duration fixed income (mostly muni funds) for the year and did pretty drat well. not sure of my total return but was a pleasant year compared to all the doomsayers saying yields going up was imminent last january. the treasury/muni spread widened a bit so i didn't realize all of the gains from the treasury yields dropping, but i think that could normalize soon, going from >1% to <.5%. not to mention the CEFs I'm in are still heavily discounted, discounts which I expect to drop rapidly once the fed raises rates. (despite yields rising at that point, the net effect might be a gain on the funds as the discount drops due to fear dropping.)

now... not sure what to do from here :P

nebby fucked around with this message at 00:17 on Jan 1, 2015

Droo
Jun 25, 2003

Cheesemaster200 posted:

Also, taxable accounts are still the only way to go if you are looking for wealth creation in a 10-30 year time frame. A Roth doesn't really help you there.

This is poor advice for the following reasons.

1. You can withdraw the principal of a Roth IRA penalty-free at any time as long as it has been in the account for 5 years. This also includes money rolled into a roth IRA from a traditional IRA or 401k. This essentially means that you can withdraw all of your money penalty-free with 5 years of notice.

2. You can withdraw money from a traditional IRA, 401k, or roth IRA in substantially equal periodic payments penalty-free. These payments are account specific and there are several ways to calculate the payment stipulated by the IRS, but essentially it means that if you want to start withdrawing your retirement money when you are 45 (or 35, or 50, etc), you can take about 4% a year without incurring a penalty. 4% also happens to be a less-than-conservative spending rate for a portfolio, so this is pretty much most of what you should be spending anyway.

3. If you are able to access a health savings account, then obviously you can spend money out of that on all of your health care expenses penalty and tax free at any time. An HSA otherwise functions like a traditional IRA, and you should be depositing money to your HSA before your IRA anyway if eligible, so this works out as well.

Using actual S&P return and yield historically, if you contribute $10,000 per year starting in 1981 with a cap gain and dividend tax rate of 15%, and an average realized capital gain per year of 0.5% (e.g. your have $100,000 of stock and you get a $500 capital gain distribution each year, or sell $500 and buy something else) then you will end up with $1,046,748 in 2001 with a Roth IRA vs $894,753 in a taxable account. All of these numbers (15% tax rate, 0.5% churn) are relatively conservative estimates of how much will be lost in tax.

So even if you paid a full 10% penalty after 20 years you would still come out ahead in the Roth IRA.

Cheesemaster200
Feb 11, 2004

Guard of the Citadel

Droo posted:

2. You can withdraw money from a traditional IRA, 401k, or roth IRA in substantially equal periodic payments penalty-free. These payments are account specific and there are several ways to calculate the payment stipulated by the IRS, but essentially it means that if you want to start withdrawing your retirement money when you are 45 (or 35, or 50, etc), you can take about 4% a year without incurring a penalty. 4% also happens to be a less-than-conservative spending rate for a portfolio, so this is pretty much most of what you should be spending anyway.

How? The only ways I know are for specific, pre-defined purposes which have significant restrictions.

The remaining reasons are missing the point of "wealth creation" before you are 60 years old. Yes, you can withdraw your principal from an IRA, but you don't get the gains. Likewise, you can do a back door conversion from a traditional IRA to a roth when you need the money, but then you have a huge tax bill in high tax brackets (potential cash flow issue) and you are paying taxes at normal rates. With a taxable account you would be paying at the capital gains rate.

In other words, if you keep it in an Trad IRA or 401(k) until you convert when you need it, you will pay that $1m mostly at the 39% tax bracket (more so with Obamacare and state/municipal progressive rates). With a taxable account, you pay for it at 10-15% capital gains for the earnings and 15% for the principal/state.

Conversions to Roth make sense if you have a temporary reduction in your bracket.

Droo
Jun 25, 2003

Cheesemaster200 posted:

How? The only ways I know are for specific, pre-defined purposes which have significant restrictions.


I really try not to sound like a jerk when I post stuff but... if you don't even know the substantially equal periodic payment rule for retirement accounts, you really have no business advising people not to use them.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/retirement/02/112602.asp

spf3million
Sep 27, 2007

hit 'em with the rhythm

Cheesemaster200 posted:

In other words, if you keep it in an Trad IRA or 401(k) until you convert when you need it, you will pay that $1m mostly at the 39% tax bracket (more so with Obamacare and state/municipal progressive rates). With a taxable account, you pay for it at 10-15% capital gains for the earnings and 15% for the principal/state.
The idea is to convert only X% of your 401(k) to Roth IRA every year in order to minimize your tax liability*. You will then be able to access these funds 5 years down the line. Convert some every year so you have a ladder of Roth IRA conversion principle to withdraw. Takes some planning, you'd have to plan to convert just enough to stay in a lower tax bracket while taking into account any other sources of taxable income. While you're waiting the required 5 years, you can withdraw other contributions you made to your Roth IRA, qualified medical expenses from previous years from your HSA, take withdrawals/dividends from your taxable account, or set up a SEPP IRA like Droo mentioned. I don't really like the restrictiveness of the SEPP option because it sort of locks you in to how much you'll get once you initiate the distributions.

*It might depend on your 401(k) plan whether it allows partial conversions or not. Not 100% clear on this myself either.

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich
Wrapped up 2014 with a 141.4% return this year. Most of that was due to aggressive bets in Yahoo & King, as well as a few plays here and there that made nice gains like American Airlines and Ebay.

GL to everyone in 2015. I'm headed into next year with a big bet on Canadian Solar, and a pretty big bet on First Solar :)

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich
Barron's Top 10 of 2015...some interesting, impartial arguments here:

http://online.barrons.com/articles/our-10-favorite-stocks-for-2015-1419655056

quote:

With the Dow topping 18,000, the U.S. stock market isn’t brimming with bargains. But our 10 top picks for 2015, mostly household names, could deliver 20% to 50% returns over the next year.

Last year’s Top 10 beat the market, gaining an average of 18.1%, compared with 15.7% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. US Airways, now part of American Airlines Group (ticker: AAL), and Intel (INTC) led the pack, returning 133% and 51%, respectively. The worst performer was Barrick Gold (ABX), which lost 31%.

Two themes to watch next year are how consumers will respond to low gasoline prices and how investors will fare if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. But these play only peripheral roles in our picks, because we’re more interested in good stocks than good themes.

Don’t expect stock gains to come easy in 2015. In three years, the S&P 500 has risen from a humble 11.7 times next-four-quarter earnings estimates to an ambitious 16.5 times. Shares look likely to rise in tandem with earnings from here, and the estimate for earnings growth next year stands at 8%, according to FactSet.

If there are any themes to our list, they are hidden strength, overblown fears, and underappreciated growth potential.

General Motors (GM) and Bank of America (BAC) are doing much better than their decimated 2014 profit statements suggest, and most of this year’s bad news won’t repeat in 2015, sending earnings soaring with or without growth (likely with). David Copperfield once made a jumbo jet disappear, but Boeing ’s (BA) magic trick starting next year will be to collect billions more in free cash than it reports in earnings. Speaking of magic, American Airlines Group (AAL) shares have doubled in 2014, but the carrier’s valuation has shrunk. American and Micron Technology (MU) aren’t getting nearly enough credit for profound improvements in their industries.

Google (GOOGL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), meanwhile, have more growth potential than investors have priced in. Fluor (FLR) can soar if oil rebounds—and do just fine if it doesn’t. Macy’s (M) is an e-commerce whiz disguised as a 156-year-old department store. Gilead Sciences (GILD) is, well, complicated. But its shares look cheap relative to even bearish assumptions—a setup we like.

General Motors: GM could double its earnings per share over the next three years, and its shares sell for a deep discount to the S&P 500. That’s a combination we like enough to keep it as a holdover from last year’s Top 10 picks—even though the stock has run over our toes on the way from $39 to $34 since that story was published.

For General Motors, 2014 was dominated by massive recalls of vehicles with faulty ignition switches that have been linked to dozens of deaths. The fiasco has cost billions of dollars in outlays for repairs and victim compensation. The company lost hundreds of millions more to a currency devaluation in Venezuela and the cost of shuttering a German plant. In 2015, these costs fade. That’s one reason Wall Street predicts that GM’s profit will rise 60%, to $7.27 billion.

There are other reasons. U.S. sales are booming; China is becoming a meaningful profit contributor; and, thanks to restructurings, GM is approaching break-even in Europe. By paying off costly preferred stock this year, it will save on interest next year. General Motors is also likely to be a key beneficiary of lower gas prices, thanks to its more than 70% share of the lucrative U.S. market for large sport-utility vehicles. In November, pickup and SUV sales for GM jumped 32% year over year.

GM could reach $5 a share in earnings as soon as 2016. As that number comes into view over the next year, its shares could rise nearly 50%, to $50. A 3.6% dividend yield adds allure, and payments are likely to grow.

Bank of America: BofA is a lot like General Motors, with depressed financial results this year that should give way to much better numbers in 2015. Massive legal charges related to mortgage securities and, to a lesser extent, currency trading, will result in 2014 earnings per share falling by half, to an estimated 44 cents. But look for the charges to quickly shrink in coming quarters. In 2015, earnings per share are expected to more than triple, to $1.48. The stock trades at 12 times that figure.

Wall Street expects BofA to reach about $2 in earnings-per-share power by 2017. Like many banks, it has seen lending spreads shrink with interest rates this low and will benefit if rates rise. Management reckons that each percentage point increase in rates from here is worth $3 billion in pretax profits—equal to 12% of next year’s estimated haul. BofA, which traded last week at $18, has lagged behind many of its peers in restoring its dividend since the financial crisis. The shares yield just 1.1%, but the payment could double in two years. Look for BofA to return 20% over the next year, as investors see cleaner earnings reports and healthy growth, and the financial-crisis hangover fades.

Boeing: Last December, Boeing shareholders got a dividend raise of just over 50%. This year, the company tacked on another 25%. The new annual payment of $3.64, paid quarterly, gives the shares, recently at $132, a yield of 2.8%. It also speaks to management’s confidence in future cash flow.

In 2014, Boeing shares have lost 4%, even though earnings per share are expected to be up 19%, to $8.38. Investors might fear that lower fuel prices will reduce the financial incentive for carriers to upgrade older planes. Not so far: Last quarter, Boeing’s backlog of orders swelled to $490 billion from $440 billion. That represents more than five years’ worth of revenue.

Lower fuel prices could actually give Boeing a boost. Carriers buy planes to use for decades. About half of Boeing’s orders are replacements, and half are for expansion. Cheap jet fuel allows consumers to spend more on travel, including flights. Earlier this month, the International Air Transport Association predicted that revenue passenger miles, a measure of air traffic, will jump 7% in 2015, up from 5.7% this year, on a boost from cheap fuel.

Watch Boeing’s free cash flow, which is likely to eclipse earnings starting in 2015. That’s because the company’s jumbo-jet accounting smooths earnings over the life of a plane, while in reality, the 787 Dreamliner has run steep losses so far, and is expected to break even sometime next year and gush cash thereafter. Looking at 2016 estimates, for example, Boeing trades at 14.2 times earnings—a good deal. But it trades at just 10.1 times estimated free cash. The shares could return 20%, including dividends.

American Airlines: Shares of American Airlines have doubled in 2014, to $52. Remarkably, the valuation has only improved. At the end of last year, the stock went for 7.5 times projected earnings for the following four quarters. Now, it fetches just 6.2 times. That’s because earnings estimates for future quarters have risen even faster than the shares.

A key reason: America’s big air carriers were so financially dysfunctional for so long that investors don’t quite believe in the latest turnaround. They should. The industry has undergone rapid consolidation, with Delta Air Lines (DAL) buying Northwest in 2008, United and Continental marrying in 2010, Southwest Airlines (LUV) gobbling AirTran Airways in 2011, and American merging with US Airways last year. These four carriers now control 85% of the U.S. market. In 2000, nine companies split that share, according to Morningstar.

A result is that prices have been steadily rising. Combine that with growing demand for air travel, and the outlook for the group is bright. American’s shares, which were punished during the recent Ebola outbreak, will likely make up for lost time in coming quarters. They could rise more than 40% next year, to $75, and still look reasonably priced.

Google: In a little over a year, Google has made two round trips north of $600 and back again to below $530. It recently fetched $542, or 17.8 times projected earnings for next year, not including stock compensation expenses. Investors seem torn between whether Google remains a go-go growth company deserving of a dot-com premium, or a mature tech titan that’s ready for a Microsoft multiple—recently 16.5 times calendar-2015 earnings estimates. It doesn’t help that last quarter paid ad clicks on Google’s sites, the company’s bread and butter, grew just 17%, down from 25% the quarter before.

Google has plenty of growth ahead, however. Slowing click gains appears to be part of an effort to reduce inadvertent or low-quality clicks on mobile devices, which have plagued the industry for years and have driven down click pricing. It’s working; click prices fell 2% last quarter year over year, versus 6% the quarter before, and some analysts expect them to be flat in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Google’s YouTube video site is reeling in major advertisers, and its Play Store for apps is riding the popularity of Google’s free Android operating system for phones. Those fast-growing businesses might together already bring in 20% of revenue.

Google can grow earnings by 15% to 20% annually over the next five years. Its shares could climb 20% in a year and still be reasonably priced at 18 times the 2016 earnings projection. And the tech giant sits on cash equal to 16% of its stock market value.

Micron Technology: Shares of memory maker Micron have gained 61% in 2014. They should be up more. At a recent $35 and change, they sell for just nine times next-four-quarter earnings estimates. This suggests that investors, having watched the price for DRAM, the main working memory for computers, double in two years, expect the industry to succumb to overproduction, triggering another slump. But the industry’s boom-and-bust past has shaken out weaker players. Today, DRAM has only three main suppliers: Micron, SK Hynix (0660.Korea), and Samsung Electronics (5930.Korea). NAND, for long-term storage with speedy access, has five, including Toshiba (6502.Japan) and SanDisk (SNDK).

With so few remaining rivals, and the cost of squeezing better performance out of chips rising, expect disciplined production for years to come. That’s not to say prices won’t dip; Jefferies, for example, predicts that selling prices will fall 5% to 10% in 2015, but production costs will decline 10% to 15%, keeping margins stable to rising. Meanwhile, the rise of smart watches and other wearable computing devices should support demand. So should expanded roles in cloud computing, like big data applications that must quickly make sense of vast amounts of information.

Micron could jump more than 40% over the next year, to $50, or just over 12 times projected 2016 earnings—a valuation more befitting the industry’s increased stability.

Macy’s: The average U.S. gasoline price has fallen by a third in a year. That could save $850 or so per family in 2015—enough to send households with tight budgets on extra shopping trips to Wal-Mart Stores (WMT). The problem is that Wal-Mart is a slow grower that now trades at nearly 17 times next-four-quarter earnings estimates. In other words, we like the thesis more than the stocks it leads to.

Macy’s holds plenty of appeal, however. Some of its shoppers will boost spending because of pump savings, while well-heeled ones won’t care. But the shares, at $64, go for just 13 times forward earnings, and the company looks capable of growing earnings at a low double-digit clip for years to come.

Macy’s is well ahead of its peers in dot-com savvy. Its stores act as fulfillment centers that can ship online orders or hold goods for pickup. Nearly half of its merchandise is private label or exclusive, which helps differentiate the chain from rivals. Because it’s more than double the size of J.C. Penney (JCP), based on revenue, Macy’s can land exclusive merchandise, which in turn helps it grow.

Look for Macy’s to return 20% in a year, including a dividend yield of 2%. That would leave its shares at 14 times the 2016 earnings forecast.

Royal Caribbean: Cruise operator Royal Caribbean trades at 24 times projected earnings for 2014. That would be too much to pay if not for the likelihood that its earnings per share will double in three years. In the U.S., retiring baby boomers will drive peppy growth for cruises for years to come. The cruise market in China is in its infancy. Royal Caribbean can deploy ships there in coming years and sell older vessels to operate under contract. Lower fuel prices offer a tail wind. Normalization of U.S. relations with Cuba could one day open a lucrative new route.

We view Virgin Group’s announcement that it will enter the business as good news for incumbents, both Royal Caribbean and larger Carnival (CCL), which we recommended earlier this month (“Carnival and Royal Caribbean Will Cruise Higher,” Dec. 15). Virgin, with financing partner Bain Capital, likes the demand outlook enough to order two new ships. Prices for those can approach $1 billion apiece—and shipbuilders are booked until 2018.

Carnival is the underperformer and could have more to gain if it can cut costs and repair its image with customers following some ship disasters in recent years. But Royal Caribbean maintains a pricing edge, and in this business, better pricing helps support higher free cash flow and new ship orders, and can quickly create a durable advantage. Royal Caribbean pays a 1.5% dividend and could double its payment over the next three years.

Gilead Sciences: Gilead Sciences won us over after last week’s 14% plunge in its stock, to $94. Earnings next year are expected to jump 26% to about $10, putting the shares at a scant nine times earnings. There’s a lot of uncertainty around those earnings. Among 26 analysts with estimates, the lowest is looking for barely $7 and the highest at more than $12. Investors are abandoning the stock, rather than face the unknown. Bargain hunters should take the other side of that trade.

Gilead last year introduced a revolutionary drug for hepatitis C, a debilitating viral infection that affects the livers of 3.2 million Americans and perhaps 150 million people worldwide. The price: $1,000 per Sovaldi pill, or $84,000 for a full treatment course. Sovaldi sales are expected to approach $12 billion this year, from next to nothing last year, and to top $17 billion in 2017. Gilead this year introduced a new hep-C product, Harvoni, that costs even more per pill, but can treat some patients faster, reducing the total cost. Gilead shares, even with their recent drop, have quadrupled in three years.

This past Monday, Express Scripts (ESRX), a leading drug-benefits manager, announced a deal with AbbVie to exclusively sell its newly approved hep-C treatment, Viekira Pak, to millions of patients. Viekira is more expensive than Harvoni and is widely believed to be inferior, suggesting that AbbVie (ABBV) offered a deep discount to Express Scripts.

Other payers could use the deal to secure discounts from Gilead. But the outcome will likely be less dire than what the stock valuation suggests, and the shares could rise 25% in a year. Gilead over the next four years is expected to generate free cash totaling $50 billion. Even half that much would be enough to fund substantial diversification into new drugs.

Fluor: If crude rebounds to $80 a barrel next year, oil stocks could shine, and those who shunned them could miss out. Long-term investors who are ready to scoop up bargains from the oil patch should see our cover story from last week, “5 Oils to Buy,” Dec. 22).

But this isn’t a list of stocks for the next few years. It’s a list for 2015, and Fluor, which builds complex structures like oil refineries and power plants, offers an excellent hedge. Earnings estimates for 2015 have slipped just 8% since the start of this year, but the shares are down 25%. One reason for Fluor’s earnings resilience is that about 55% of its recent revenue is linked to oil and gas—heavy but not total exposure. And much of that comes from refiners and other companies that can make good money on cheap oil.

Investors should assume that 10% of the company’s backlog of business, which topped $42 billion last quarter, is at risk. But even a $37 billion backlog would cover 1½ years of revenue. At its current price, Fluor fetches 12.6 times next-four-quarter earnings estimates, down from over 18 at the beginning of the year. Fluor holds cash and securities equal to a quarter of its market value. The stock yields 1.4%. Investors got a 31% dividend raise last February; look for something similar in coming months.

Fluor could rise 20% next year and still trade at just 13 times the Street’s lowest 2016 earnings estimate, just under $5 a share.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

slap me silly
Nov 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer
Might wanna check out their 2011 performance :)

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply