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Dahbadu posted:I knew you were going to bring up favorabilities. They are the most vague stupid metric that can mean anything. Yes, she's unlikable, just talk to people. "that's a really vague metric, here, try anecdotal evidence amongst my group of friends instead"
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Aug 27, 2015 17:35
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According to that poll Trump is killing it with the blue collar worker. You know who else had support from the working man?
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Aug 27, 2015 17:35
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A Neurotic Jew posted:"that's a really vague metric, here, try anecdotal evidence amongst my group of friends instead" I would also have accepted "that's a really vague metric, not like 'likeability' which is totally a well defined thing."
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Aug 27, 2015 17:37
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A Neurotic Jew posted:"that's a really vague metric, here, try anecdotal evidence amongst my group of friends instead" I'd say the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Hillary's favorability in polls like this is inflated by simple name recognition among voters who don't really pay much attention this long before an election, but her extreme unfavorably seen in unscientific polls taken on sites like DailyKos and DemocraticUnderground is inflated by the more leftist slant of people that frequent those sites.
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Aug 27, 2015 17:42
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Dahbadu posted:I'm more worried about the lack of positive responses, even when adjusted. And if you're seriously going to argue that a large portion of Dems don't believe that Hillary is inauthentic or untrustworthy, I just don't know what to say. She's just not mainstream likable, dude. At best among Dems, and to steal a quote, she's "likable enough." Immediate single word association isn't going to be the thing that swings anything at all. Especially when the current news cycle is about her being a lying liar who lies about emails. Except hopefully it does swing all the people who responded with multi-word answers into feeling ashamed of themselves.
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Aug 27, 2015 17:43
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Trump just had a "it's real and it's spectacular" moment with a supporter about his hair. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivDYqnBUPhE
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Aug 27, 2015 17:43
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MrBims posted:I don't know if I'd call secret courts and permanent dentention without judicial review economic issues. Its what is implied by the use of "social issues", like in the example of "social Issue" conservatives. Though if this becomes another argument about definitions let me say that I will preemptively blow my own brains out. EugeneJ posted:Didn't Biden also vote to defund inner-city bussing I was responding to the hyperbolicness of the original post. The fact that there wasn't any sources just added to that. Let's be clear, Biden is no Ted Kennedy. But also to be clear, he's been solidly left of center of much of the Democratic establishment (being pro-blue collar, pro-labor, etc) for a long time now, even if his politics can careen rightwards on some issues. And lastly, the original comparasion was against Hillary Clinton. Which makes it especially unfair to bring up the innercity busing issue, when we have no record of what Hillary would have done at that time and with that kind of pressure (other than vote for Goldwater I guess).
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Aug 27, 2015 17:44
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NotWearingPants posted:The responses to that question indicate that the democratic "anybody but Hillary" vote is 9% (or less, assuming some democrats actually like Trump or Bush). This really becomes a losing argument pretty quick, the more time that goes by that people "haven't heard" of sanders the higher the likelihood that he is just awful at messaging and outreach, which would also gently caress an executive run so I mean, if we're gonna lose our poo poo about dudes who have no chance you could at least have the decency to back vermin supreme.
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Aug 27, 2015 17:47
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Spaceman Future! posted:This really becomes a losing argument pretty quick, the more time that goes by that people "haven't heard" of sanders the higher the likelihood that he is just awful at messaging and outreach, which would also gently caress an executive run so It's not a losing argument until the debates start. If we are halfway through the six debate schedule and Bernie Sanders is still getting around a 40% in the "never heard of him" category, then it would be time to call it a losing argument.
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Aug 27, 2015 17:49
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Spaceman Future! posted:This really becomes a losing argument pretty quick, the more time that goes by that people "haven't heard" of sanders the higher the likelihood that he is just awful at messaging and outreach, which would also gently caress an executive run so the news doesnt cover him much, the people who havent heard of him are mostly apolitical or do not use the internet much or at all, most likely. his unknowns in higher age range and poor households indicates this.
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Aug 27, 2015 17:51
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NotWearingPants posted:It's not a losing argument until the debates start. If we are halfway through the six debate schedule and Bernie Sanders is still getting around a 40% in the "never heard of him" category, then it would be time to call it a losing argument. which is why I says "becomes" and not "is" though he's still hosed, he may get slightly less hosed before febuary, then more when he doesent take Iowa. Its also a pretty heafty assumption that low interest voters would be any more likely to break to Sanders even after they hear of him, the people likely to go after a self declared socialist are the ones that are actually engaged. Spaceman Future! fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Aug 27, 2015 |
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Aug 27, 2015 17:53
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Gyges posted:Immediate single word association isn't going to be the thing that swings anything at all. Especially when the current news cycle is about her being a lying liar who lies about emails. It's not going to swing anything, but it's indicative to the larger problem, the problem that Hillary Clinton is not very likable (despite what meaningless favorability metrics tell you). I mean, just open your eyes. How can you not see this?
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Aug 27, 2015 17:54
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Montasque posted:
I like the three percent of republicans that would vote for Hillary given that choice.
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Aug 27, 2015 17:56
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I agree, spaceman future, Vermin Supremacy.
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Aug 27, 2015 17:56
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Nintendo Kid posted:I agree, spaceman future, Vermin Supremacy. people arent backing him just because they havent heard of him, thats all. once they see the boot, they will know
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Aug 27, 2015 17:58
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Arguably, Donald Trump's candidacy could be a black swan event, the kind of wildly improbable event that happens now and again even when statistical models suggest it shouldn't. It will be rationalized and explained after the fact, but beforehand almost nobody was anticipating this, probably including Trump himself. It kinda demonstrates how a purely statistical approach to politics will always fall to the bizarre vicissitudes of humanity. Our math is not yet robust enough to reliably predict what people will do, and perhaps never will be. in other words, Nate Silver is an idiot. at the time he became popular he was a necessary corrective, but now he's part of the establishment he was previously challenging, and has bought into the kind of conventional thinking that will never allow foresight or understanding of improbable events until long after they've occurred.
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Aug 27, 2015 17:59
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:What is with this surge on Carson? He stood up to Obama a few years ago, he'll always be popular with a certain percentage of the GOP base.
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Aug 27, 2015 18:03
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baw posted:
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Aug 27, 2015 18:04
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Dahbadu posted:I haven't met one person that likes her. Maybe it's the crowd we hang around. But she comes off as wooden and inauthentic to a lot of people. It's so bad that when you watch some interviews with her it makes you squirm. When she's in front of cameras, she's like Julia Louis-Dreyfus from Veep. You mean President Selina Meyer, right?
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Aug 27, 2015 18:05
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Spatula City posted:Arguably, Donald Trump's candidacy could be a black swan event, the kind of wildly improbable event that happens now and again even when statistical models suggest it shouldn't. It will be rationalized and explained after the fact, but beforehand almost nobody was anticipating this, probably including Trump himself. It kinda demonstrates how a purely statistical approach to politics will always fall to the bizarre vicissitudes of humanity. Our math is not yet robust enough to reliably predict what people will do, and perhaps never will be. The fun thing about political statistics is that they are not all that unlike baseball statistics. You can have high performers, and low performers, but everyone will return to their personal mean. Thats why Sanders is hosed, it took a stellar performance to take Hillary out of the running, on average she is a known quantity and is performing consistently overall. Sanders is a known quantity in the political world, he is experiencing a rookie surge, his numbers will settle. With Trump though we had NO numbers. Dude may have commented on politics but he had no history to pull from, just assumptions. We're still making them too because Trump exists in territory with a small data set, Perot being pretty close data wise but Trump is Perot with a party, which makes all the difference in the world. How that will eventually work? Who loving knows, he is outside the averages, we just have to watch and record. ed. As an aside calling someone an idiot for not being able to predict improbable events is fucktarded for reasons that are explained by the word improbable in reference to statistics, fyi. Spaceman Future! fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Aug 27, 2015 |
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Aug 27, 2015 18:06
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radical meme posted:You mean President Selina Meyer, right? Yes. I actually think that JLD performance of "Salina being a politician in front of cameras" is somewhat based off of Hillary too. That's how bad it is.
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Aug 27, 2015 18:09
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aBagorn posted:Trump just had a "it's real and it's spectacular" moment with a supporter about his hair. When did this happen in the video?
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Aug 27, 2015 18:13
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But armchair political pundits always talk about what's going to happen and refer to statistics to back them up, they never talk in terms of probabilities (armchair people don't like to admit they're not totally sure what's going on, which is the first mark of honesty).
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Aug 27, 2015 18:13
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Shageletic posted:When did this happen in the video? ABC posted the clip http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/donald-trump-says-i-dont-wear-a-toupee-33359554 e: He's explaining how the wall will be built and now he's talking about infrastructure spending  oh man don't suck me in Trump
aBagorn fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Aug 27, 2015 |
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Aug 27, 2015 18:16
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Spatula City posted:in other words, Nate Silver is an idiot. at the time he became popular he was a necessary corrective, but now he's part of the establishment he was previously challenging, and has bought into the kind of conventional thinking that will never allow foresight or understanding of improbable events until long after they've occurred. I don't think you 'get' statistics
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Aug 27, 2015 18:17
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30% of Trump's speeches is explaining how his wall will be cool and good
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Aug 27, 2015 18:18
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aBagorn posted:ABC posted the clip This is hysterical.
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Aug 27, 2015 18:18
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Necc0 posted:I don't think you 'get' statistics Maybe not, but he certainly seems to "get" Nate Silver.
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Aug 27, 2015 18:20
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Dahbadu posted:Yes. I actually think that JLD performance of "Salina being a politician in front of cameras" is somewhat based off of Hillary too. That's how bad it is. In my humble opinion, nobody that lives West or South of Pennsylvania is going to vote for a 75 year old (his age as of November, 2016), white, jewish, self-proclaimed socialist, Independent Senator from Vermont running as a Democrat.
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Aug 27, 2015 18:20
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radical meme posted:In my humble opinion, nobody that lives West or South of Pennsylvania is going to vote for a 75 year old (his age as of November, 2016), white, jewish, self-proclaimed socialist, Independent Senator from Vermont running as a Democrat. Another prediction for the skull throne. Keep 'em coming, guys!
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Aug 27, 2015 18:23
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radical meme posted:In my humble opinion, nobody that lives West or South of Pennsylvania is going to vote for a 75 year old (his age as of November, 2016), white, jewish, self-proclaimed socialist, Independent Senator from Vermont running as a Democrat. He's currently running within the margin of error in West Virginia, a state where Clinton beat Obama 3-1 in 2008.
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Aug 27, 2015 18:24
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Lol im not gonna post in the stickied thread about it but Ralp has the general election as 10/19/15. Wouldn't that be nice..another year of Trump
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Aug 27, 2015 18:25
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We need a Sanders/Trump ticket. The populist wave would be unstoppable. Sanders would put a lid on Trump's fascist tendencies. Together, they'd build a yooge, luxurious social safety net. People like to poo-poo Sanders for having unachievable goals, but Trump can make deals with Congress (stuff like the Best defensive weapons systems money can buy) and troll the poo poo out of recalcitrant members. The New American Century is within our grasp, people!
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Aug 27, 2015 18:30
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The political machines of both parties will not allow Sanders or Trump to be the noms. They will use every dirty trick in the book and game the system so their choice wins.
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Aug 27, 2015 18:34
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Montasque posted:According to that poll Trump is killing it with the blue collar worker. You know who else had support from the working man? I don't understand why working people are supporting Trump. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0fD20OueDw
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Aug 27, 2015 18:35
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"They wont be able to go under the wall because X-Rays" - Trump
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Aug 27, 2015 18:38
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Flambeau posted:We need a Sanders/Trump ticket. I think you mean Trump/Sanders. The Trump don't settle for 2nd place. radical meme posted:In my humble opinion, nobody that lives West or South of Pennsylvania is going to vote for a 75 year old (his age as of November, 2016), white, jewish, self-proclaimed socialist, Independent Senator from Vermont running as a Democrat. How is he polling on the west coast?
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Aug 27, 2015 18:38
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Montasque posted:The political machines of both parties will not allow Sanders or Trump to be the noms. They will use every dirty trick in the book and game the system so their choice wins. As soon as more people become acquainted with Bernie after the debates and he begins polling much better than Hillary against republicans. especially in the battleground states, establishment democrats will come around because they are really only invested in winning and would nominate David Duke on a "gently caress the poor" platform if they thought he had the best chance of winning.
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Aug 27, 2015 18:39
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Flambeau posted:We need a Sanders/Trump ticket. Sure but Trump would be VP for no man and Sanders seems like the VPish type
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Aug 27, 2015 18:39
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NotWearingPants posted:He's currently running within the margin of error in West Virginia, a state where Clinton beat Obama 3-1 in 2008. I think you may be severely misjudging why west virginia didnt want to vote for Obama Like, completely missing that one, huge whiff. Also the same reason a white male would do better.
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Aug 27, 2015 18:42
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