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-Atom- posted:the line is starting to shift in Aldo's favor Aldo looks to be at +105 now, I'm guessing he'll be at even odds by Saturday. Emaciated McGregor seems to always shift the odds a little bit. Also it was interesting in the latest Embedded how Aldo got on the scale and was super happy about his weight being on point and McGregor got on and didn't say a word, they didn't really dwell on it, was just something I noticed.
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Dec 10, 2015 17:59
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-Atom- posted:the line is starting to shift in Aldo's favor Yea it's at Conor -120 Jose Even on my site. I think we all knew that line would plummet. The time to take Jose was last month.
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Dec 10, 2015 18:28
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If I were a gambling man I would definitely be putting money on Aldo.
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Dec 10, 2015 21:31
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I dont see a lot of value in either of the title fights on the card at their current lines, maybe if you got in on Aldo at +140 or whatever but i wouldnt be fist pumping over it, i think if you are betting on toss up fights like this where there are a lot of unknowns, unless you have some secret info no one else has youre probably just losing the vig in the long run
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Dec 10, 2015 21:38
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manyak posted:I dont see a lot of value in either of the title fights on the card at their current lines, maybe if you got in on Aldo at +140 or whatever but i wouldnt be fist pumping over it, i think if you are betting on toss up fights like this where there are a lot of unknowns, unless you have some secret info no one else has youre probably just losing the vig in the long run How about in a prop bet for Weidman/Rockhold not going the distance? Currently it's nearly even money (-145 for not going the distance or -110 for under 3.5 rounds) and neither guy sees the scorecards very often, or the 3rd round for that matter. I suppose there's not a ton of value in it too, but if your choice is either a coinflip between Weidman or Rockhold or a coinflip between either guy getting a TKO/submission across 25 minutes I would think that's a better bet.
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Dec 10, 2015 23:40
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Bubba Smith posted:How about in a prop bet for Weidman/Rockhold not going the distance? Currently it's nearly even money (-145 for not going the distance or -110 for under 3.5 rounds) and neither guy sees the scorecards very often, or the 3rd round for that matter. I suppose there's not a ton of value in it too, but if your choice is either a coinflip between Weidman or Rockhold or a coinflip between either guy getting a TKO/submission across 25 minutes I would think that's a better bet. Well i havent put a lot of thought into whether or not itll go the distance, but in general you should be more skeptical of prop bets like that because they usually raise the juice on them. I just looked and a site offering +115/-145 on decision/finish respectively is offering +115/-125 on Rockhold/Weidman respectively, that means the house is taking like 4% extra on your bet if you take the prop instead of just betting on a winner. And also be careful thinking that -145 is nearly even money, it means you have to bet almost $15 to win $10, if you are taking coinflips where you have to bet $15 to win $10 you will be getting killed in the long run I personally probably wouldnt bother with the prop bet, and I bet a ton on Weidman vs Silva both times, and a little bit on him vs Machida and Vitor, but I dont see a big reason to bet on him vs Rockhold, I think -125 is pretty fair and Rockhold is his toughest style matchup. If youre just betting for fun and dont care that much if its a "value" bet then i think theyre all (including the prop and including Aldo/Conor) good and fun bets which will be exciting to see play out
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Dec 10, 2015 23:57
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agreed with manyak re frankie / chad. no value there. none with conor / aldo anymore but i'll probably parlay aldo / weidman anyway.
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Dec 11, 2015 00:04
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oh look, jim miller is an underdog against chiesa. i'm getting on that.
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Dec 11, 2015 01:05
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Marching Powder posted:oh look, jim miller is an underdog against chiesa. i'm getting on that. loving how? What are the odds?
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Dec 11, 2015 02:06
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Tezcatlipoca posted:loving how? What are the odds? i'm getting 2.5:1 on my bookies and that's easily good enough for me
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Dec 11, 2015 02:08
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Marching Powder posted:i'm getting 2.5:1 on my bookies and that's easily good enough for me drat that's a good bet.
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Dec 11, 2015 02:35
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If 2.5:1 means 5/2, then that's awesome. But unlikely, he's just slightly better than even money at every bookie in the UK.
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Dec 11, 2015 02:38
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Miller at +250 is weird enough to make me think theres something i dont know like Miller is injured or something
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Dec 11, 2015 03:04
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manyak posted:Miller at +250 is weird enough to make me think theres something i dont know like Miller is injured or something that's what i thought when bang went up +200 somewhere between the weigh-ins and the fight but nope he fought the same as ever
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Dec 11, 2015 03:11
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Chiesa is bigger and a decent wrestler. I don't think his skills are up there elsewhere, but I could see Chiesa grinding Miller away for 3 rounds.
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Dec 11, 2015 03:17
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Bubba Smith posted:Chiesa is bigger and a decent wrestler. I don't think his skills are up there elsewhere, but I could see Chiesa grinding Miller away for 3 rounds. yeah i think back to the pat healy fight and could see that but i honestly think miller is better and at those odds absolutely deserves a bet
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Dec 11, 2015 03:21
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If you're looking for a live dog, Artem Lobov is going into tomorrow's finale as big favourite, so I reckon it's well worth a wager on Ryan Hall.
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Dec 11, 2015 03:22
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Marching Powder posted:yeah i think back to the pat healy fight and could see that but i honestly think miller is better and at those odds absolutely deserves a bet oh yeah, Miller has consistently been one of the top UFC lightweights for over 5 years for a reason. I just think gamblers/odds makers are expecting Chiesa to stick to wrestling so Miller as an sizable underdog isn't too bad. However if he tries to stand with Miller or can't get him down he's gonna get his face busted wide open. either way I hope your bet pays off/Miller gets another win.
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Dec 11, 2015 03:26
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Tezcatlipoca posted:loving how? What are the odds? Well don't I look dumb.
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Dec 11, 2015 05:23
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Woke up this morning and my iPad, iPhone and my Mac screen saver were all changed to different color BMW cars. So I guess my wife has already picked out the car she wants.
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Dec 11, 2015 20:21
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I was doing alright tonight, a little over breaking even, and then Edgar got me paid. I had a strong feeling that he would win, didn't think it would be so quick though. 
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Dec 12, 2015 07:46
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jase1 posted:Woke up this morning and my iPad, iPhone and my Mac screen saver were all changed to different color BMW cars. So I guess my wife has already picked out the car she wants. good luck to your wife and the bmw dealer in EPisode 7: The Jase Awakens
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Dec 12, 2015 13:09
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Connor is a slight underdog now, it looks like.
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Dec 12, 2015 20:34
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The Artem loss really hit him hard.
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Dec 12, 2015 20:34
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loving gambling.
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Dec 13, 2015 06:39
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Okay it's been a back and forth night, it all comes down to Aldo winning. I have $164 on him, if he wins I will have turned $100 into $400 over this weekend. If he loses I'm back to my original $100. Let's fuckin GOOOOO
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Dec 13, 2015 06:42
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gently caress this poo poo
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Dec 13, 2015 06:56
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I mean I lost 80 bucks but... whoa boy, Jase1.
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Dec 13, 2015 06:57
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That's about right.
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Dec 13, 2015 06:57
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Conor needs to cut you a check
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Dec 13, 2015 06:58
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jase1 posted:That's about right. Ohhhh yes
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Dec 13, 2015 06:58
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LOL I gotta stick to my system
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Dec 13, 2015 07:06
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I won a 4 fight parlay with Court McGee, Mustafaev, Tecia Torres and Faber. Then I put the winnings on Aldo. 
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Dec 13, 2015 07:08
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jase1 posted:That's about right. How's the missus?
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Dec 13, 2015 07:14
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Crying on the couch while my bookies wife is consoling her. My bookie and I are headed to the casino so he can burn my money in front of me at the craps table and I will be trying to win a chunk of it back at the poker table in this crazy 5-10 game that gets going around 2am.
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Dec 13, 2015 07:21
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jase1 posted:Crying on the couch while my bookies wife is consoling her. My bookie and I are headed to the casino so he can burn my money in front of me at the craps table and I will be trying to win a chunk of it back at the poker table in this crazy 5-10 game that gets going around 2am. Good luck and godspeed. o7
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Dec 13, 2015 07:25
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jase1 posted:Crying on the couch while my bookies wife is consoling her. My bookie and I are headed to the casino so he can burn my money in front of me at the craps table and I will be trying to win a chunk of it back at the poker table in this crazy 5-10 game that gets going around 2am. I love this sport
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Dec 13, 2015 07:37
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MrSmokes posted:Okay it's been a back and forth night, it all comes down to Aldo winning. I have $164 on him, if he wins I will have turned $100 into $400 over this weekend. If he loses I'm back to my original $100. Let's fuckin GOOOOO MrSmokes posted:gently caress this poo poo
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Dec 13, 2015 07:43
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Why did I ever stop checking this thread?
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Dec 13, 2015 07:43
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jase1 posted:Crying on the couch while my bookies wife is consoling her. My bookie and I are headed to the casino so he can burn my money in front of me at the craps table and I will be trying to win a chunk of it back at the poker table in this crazy 5-10 game that gets going around 2am. lol
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Dec 13, 2015 08:12
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