lol Reddit posted:

Intro

Today, GRRM released a (not-so-brand) new chapter on his website: TWOW, Arianne II. (This chapter was completed in 2010 and was originally read at Worldcon 2011, so it's not new really) He also provided a brief update on his TWOW progress on his notablog.:

You want to know what the Sand Snakes, Prince Doran, Areo Hotah, Ellaria Sand, Darkstar, and the rest will be up to in WINDS OF WINTER? Quite a lot, actually. The sample will give you a taste. For the rest, you will need to wait.

And no, just to spike any bullshit rumors, changing the sample chapter does NOT mean I am done. See the icon up above? Monkey is still on my back... but he's growing, he is, and one day...

The chapter thread has a lot of pessimistic comments that this is a bad sign of progress for TWOW, but I have the exact opposite take. This is relatively positive sign of progress on GRRM's part. In fact, it's the most positive thing that GRRM has said about TWOW since 2014. Let me explain!
Things GRRM Confirmed

Before we get into why this is positive, just a few things that GRRM confirmed, semi-confirmed and implied:

Areo Hotah will return, almost certainly as a POV character
Given that we'll find out about Darkstar and Ellaria, I think we're going to see it from Areo's POV.
TWOW, Arianne II is done. What I mean by this is that GRRM typically reads chapters at conventions to solicit feedback on the chapters from fans (for instance the ADWD Prologue and ADWD, Jon II) if he's not entirely sure on the direction of the chapter. For ADWD, Jon II, he inserted the famous "Edd, fetch me a block" after fans told GRRM in 2008 that Jon would take after Ned and execute Janos himself. Here's what GRRM said about the ADWD Prologue:

FWIW, I have always found convention readings to be very valuable, especially when I’m doing a chapter than I’ve never read before. - GRRM, notablog, Back from Indianapolis, 7/11/2007

Now, here's something that might be a bit controversial, but... I think that GRRM released this chapter for similar reasons that he released the Alayne chapter last year: he's showing how ASOIAF will be very different from GoT. In this case, I have to wonder how pleased GRRM is with GoT's treatment of the Dorne storyline.

Progress, Real Progress

All right, here you go: this is a super positive step for TWOW's progress. Yes, GRRM said that he wanted TWOW out before S06, and was bummed that it wasn't. However, here, GRRM said something substantial about his TWOW progress:

And no, just to spike any bullshit rumors, changing the sample chapter does NOT mean I am done. See the icon up above? Monkey is still on my back... but he's growing, he is, and one day...

Why is this positive? For one, GRRM isn't just "hopeful he can get it out." It sounds like he's making real progress on writing TWOW. The last time he said something this hopeful was back in 2014 when he released the Mercy chapter. Then, he said:

So far, I have not done anywhere near as much rewriting on WINDS... but of course, it is not done yet. - GRRM Comment, I Broke the Internet, 3/28/2014

So, GRRM is making progress. It's not done (obvs), but it's getting closer, and that's positive!
Conclusion

Just for reference, back in November 2010, GRRM read a partial of ADWD, Davos II. This was about 6 months out from his completion of ADWD. Is it possible that GRRM is 6 months from finishing TWOW? Yes, I think so. In fact, this would line up with my previous estimate that GRRM will release TWOW in early 2017.

Will he though? Time will tell.

P.S. If you want to read every last scrap of info that I've collected on TWOW (well up to September 2015, it needs to be updated), check out my Complete Winds of Winter Resource.