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Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Nyarlothotep posted:

Just because it's objectively cheaper won't mean the 'fiscally responsible' right won't be vehemently against it.
Yeah but in this case "fiscally responsible" just means "i can't feel rich if poor people aren't dying in the street".

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aphid_licker
Jan 7, 2009


doverhog posted:

It's cheaper to maintain a functioning peaceful society with social programs than it is with cops and prisons. Are you disputing this?

What happens when you run out of money

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

GaussianCopula posted:

The problem with these "open border" policies is that they are incompatible with the modern (European) welfare state especially since to cost of relocating has decreased drastically.

Yeah, it only takes one dead toddler to cross the Mediterranean successfully these days.

Private Speech
Mar 30, 2011

I HAVE EVEN MORE WORTHLESS BEANIE BABIES IN MY COLLECTION THAN I HAVE WORTHLESS POSTS IN THE BEANIE BABY THREAD YET I STILL HAVE THE TEMERITY TO CRITICIZE OTHERS' COLLECTIONS

IF YOU SEE ME TALKING ABOUT BEANIE BABIES, PLEASE TELL ME TO

EAT. SHIT.


computer parts posted:

Yeah, it only takes one dead toddler to cross the Mediterranean successfully these days.

Presumably the idea is that you wouldn't have to do that.

Regardless it's not that the cost of relocating is so much lower, more that huge parts of the world are much much better off (but still kinda-to-very poor in comparison) and therefore able to afford it.

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

computer parts posted:

Yeah, it only takes one dead toddler to cross the Mediterranean successfully these days.

The mortality for refugees and migrants crossing the mideterranean sea to Europe is probably less than the mortality from moving to the Americas when the US had a largely unrestricted immigration. So the risk and transport cost are both lower and cheaper than it was due to significant infrastructure improvements (as it should be). But this also has the side effect that it has become easier even for poor people outside of the EU to enter the EU.

Zudgemud fucked around with this message at 15:34 on Jul 30, 2016

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Zudgemud posted:

The mortality for refugees and migrants crossing the mideterranean sea to Europe is probably markedly less than the mortality from moving to the Americas when the US had a largely unrestricted immigration.

Probably not, honestly, unless you're including "Starving due to lack of potatoes" as a risk when traveling.

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax
If housing and feeding people gratuitously was a moneymaking scheme, you guys can believe it would be in wide use globally.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Ligur posted:

If housing and feeding people gratuitously was a moneymaking scheme, you guys can believe it would be in wide use globally.

Literally the foundation of human civilization and commerce.


You forgot alcohol.

Ligur
Sep 6, 2000

by Lowtax

MiddleOne posted:

Literally the foundation of human civilization and commerce.


You forgot alcohol.

Giving poo poo away for free to complete strangers who will never give back?

No, it's not.

Edit: I of course endorse giving alcohol for free, I just had to pay 3,5€ for a beer, save me planned economy :haw:

Ligur fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Jul 30, 2016

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

I think it's useful to distinguish between a utopian internationalist view of immigration and the actual record of immigration and its management in Europe. The refugee crisis is more than a year old. You may have the luxury of arguing about theoretical policies outcomes on the Internet, but there have been actual policies and outcomes.

I think the "just accept house and feed them" crowd is ignoring how those policies have played out on the ground. It's been a huge mess. Not everybody agrees with the liberal internationalist agenda and that fact forces the costs onto the more idealistic nations. I think it's important to recognize that rich countries that have really tried policies of acceptance have a huge project on their hands. Yes resettlement and integration may be within their capabilities, but has it been sold to the people as an expensive generational social project with a bill to match?

Failure to take on the reality of these policies and their consequences just pushes people over to hard right nationalism.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

computer parts posted:

Probably not, honestly, unless you're including "Starving due to lack of potatoes" as a risk when traveling.

That's still illegal immigration. If it were legal to immigrate from any country into EU all you need is a plane ticket, which will cost you maybe $500 tops.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

GaussianCopula posted:

That's still illegal immigration. If it were legal to immigrate from any country into EU all you need is a plane ticket, which will cost you maybe $500 tops.

That's not the context of the discussion, sorry.

doverhog
May 31, 2013

Defender of democracy and human rights 🇺🇦
I'm not advocating for an open borders policy. That's a separate issue from whether social security vs. starving homeless is the better approach.

Shazback
Jan 26, 2013

computer parts posted:

Probably not, honestly, unless you're including "Starving due to lack of potatoes" as a risk when traveling.

"Raymond L. Cohn, Illinois State University" posted:

Death Rates during the Voyage

A final aspect to consider is the mortality experienced by the individuals on board the ships. Information taken from the Passenger Lists for the period of the sailing ship between 1820 and 1860 finds a loss rate of slightly over onepercent of the immigrants who boarded (Cohn, 1984). Given the length of the trip and taking into account the ages of the immigrants, this rate represents mortality approximately four times higher than that experienced by non-migrants. Mortality was especially high among children and the elderly. There appears to have been little trend over time in mortality or differences in the loss rate by country of origin, though some evidence suggests the loss rate may have differed by port of embarkation. In addition, the best evidence from the colonial period finds a loss rate only slightly higher than that of the antebellum years. In the period after the Civil War, with the change to steamships and the resulting shorter travel time and improved on-board conditions, mortality on the voyages fell, though exactly how much has not been determined.


IOM posted:

IOM Counts 3,771 Migrant Fatalities in Mediterranean in 2015


Globally, IOM estimates that over 5,350 migrants died in 2015. IOM also recorded total sea arrivals to Europe in 2015 at 1,004,356 or almost five times the previous year’s total of 219,000. 

The transatlantic cruising is quite a bit longer than the migration routes to Europe, but we're comparing a record of ship manifests to estimates. The former would tend to be biased towards survivalism ( reporting passengers as "alive" even if they died in the minutes after landing ), whilst the latter is biased towards over reporting the mortality rate ( exact or slightly high counts of the dead, but only a partial count of voyagers ). It doesn't seem obvious that the risk of immigrating to Europe is the higher one, though.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Nyarlothotep posted:

Just because it's objectively cheaper won't mean the 'fiscally responsible' right won't be vehemently against it.

I actually doubt that the premise is really true in any way, so I'd be curious to see some sources on this.

doverhog posted:

Not really, because it is ultimately more expensive to have homeless starving people disrupting society than it is to provide them with food and housing.

However, it's even cheaper not to let in millions of completely broke and barely literate migrants in the first place.

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

Ligur posted:

Giving poo poo away for free to complete strangers who will never give back?

No, it's not.

Edit: I of course endorse giving alcohol for free, I just had to pay 3,5€ for a beer, save me planned economy :haw:

"will never give back" lol

those swarthy foreigners are useless to your country, so worthless that your pristine nordic women prefer them to racist assholes

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Ligur posted:

If housing and feeding people gratuitously was a moneymaking scheme, you guys can believe it would be in wide use globally.

Yeah I've never heard of the post-war consensus either.

YF-23
Feb 17, 2011

My god, it's full of cat!


Ligur posted:

Giving poo poo away for free to complete strangers who will never give back?

Tell me more about those "complete strangers who will never give back". Who exactly do you have in mind when you use that phrase?

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

Tesseraction posted:

Yeah I've never heard of the post-war consensus either.


YF-23 posted:

Tell me more about those "complete strangers who will never give back". Who exactly do you have in mind when you use that phrase?

What concrete policies are you guys actually in favor of? How much do you think they will cost to implement in Germany and Sweden if the rest of the rich EU continues to refuse to accept large numbers of migrants?

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Arglebargle III posted:

What concrete policies are you guys actually in favor of? How much do you think they will cost to implement in Germany and Sweden if the rest of the rich EU continues to refuse to accept large numbers of migrants?

...ah yes the poverty stricken nation of Germany with their economic hardships.

Oh wait.

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

So how many do you think they should accept, and how much should it cost?

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Arglebargle III posted:

What concrete policies are you guys actually in favor of? How much do you think they will cost to implement in Germany and Sweden if the rest of the rich EU continues to refuse to accept large numbers of migrants?

There is a projected tax increase of on average 2% for all municipalities in Sweden in order to keep welfare at current levels with the current levels of immigrants. For Malmö , the projection is 6%.
To put in SEK, 2% means paying 32 SEK instead of 30 SEK for every 100 SEK you earn.

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

Yinlock posted:

"will never give back" lol

those swarthy foreigners are useless to your country, so worthless that your pristine nordic women prefer them to racist assholes

Despite being a troll post I don't really think this is true (racism towards partners being totally genderless in my experience), it would be great for overall genetic fitness if it was though.


YF-23 posted:

Tell me more about those "complete strangers who will never give back". Who exactly do you have in mind when you use that phrase?

Since it is Ligur I assume it is all immigrants that won't pick up meaningful employment during their life in their new country and will thus they themselves continue to be a net drain for their new country. Though this problem do exist in a significant degree for some immigrant groups such as Somalis, it is also linked to gender with higher amounts of stay at home moms, but their kids are usually less prone to this behavior and the groups often end up having many kids, which is nice as a future tax base.

I assume he could also technically mean the countries of origin for the immigrants. In this case he is probably right though as the majority of shitgovernments ruling their countries of origin like the fact that they can dump dissidents and excess population on other countries for remittances etc, but would never willingly "reward" new host countries for taking on their expatriates. Trade between the countries might increase passively due to increased ties though, but I don't have any data on that.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Zudgemud posted:

the groups often end up having many kids, which is nice as a future tax base.
Assuming there are any job positions for them to fill, and that they actually get to.

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Assuming there are any job positions for them to fill, and that they actually get to.

Well, their kids can at least compete more evenly on the job market due to generally better language skills and a basal Swedish education. The prevalence of poo poo grades in immigrant heavy suburbs and a general lack of low skill work is a problem though, but one that will hopefully solve itself over time and generations due to free education as it has for previous immigrant groups.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Zudgemud posted:

Well, their kids can at least compete more evenly on the job market due to generally better language skills and a basal Swedish education. The prevalence of poo poo grades in immigrant heavy suburbs and a general lack of low skill work is a problem though, but one that will hopefully solve itself over time and generations due to free education as it has for previous immigrant groups.
That doesn't really take away from the point about whether there are any positions for them to fill though. In an era of increased automation, they might be chasing a moving finish line.

(And in a more general sense, second generation immigrants might actually perform worse than their parents in some cases. Though that might just be Belgium being particularly bad at integration, even in a European context.)

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer
More low skill work would be lovely though, but I don't think our government and economy can will this into existence. The required slaughtering hard fought employment laws seem counterproductive and a 6h workday appears to be unpopular utopianism.

Zudgemud fucked around with this message at 08:22 on Jul 31, 2016

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN10B09T

quote:

(Reuters) - Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hofer has widened his lead in a Gallup poll ahead of October's repeat election for the Austrian presidency.
Hofer lost by a whisker in May to former Greens party leader Alexander van der Bellen in an election that Austria's constitutional court this month ordered re-run given vote count irregularities.
A series of Islamist attacks in Europe and Britain's decision to leave the EU since the original vote have shuffled the political deck in neutral Austria.
The poll published by the Oesterreich paper on Sunday showed the midpoint of the wide range of support for Hofer at 52 percent -- one point higher than a poll in early July found -- versus 48 percent for van der Bellen.
Fifty-seven percent of the 600 respondents cited Hofer's personality as the most important factor, followed by "protection from terror" at 56 percent and "more stringent asylum policy" at 55 percent, the paper said.
The poll also showed the anti-Islam and eurosceptic Freedom Party (FPO) with record-high 35 percent support, far ahead of the governing coalition partners: the Social Democrats at 25 percent and conservative People's Party at 19 percent.
FPO leader Heinz Christian Strache has repeatedly accused d the government of taking too soft a line on Europe's migrant crisis, which the FPO says has exposed Austria to danger.

itshappening.yiff

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Zudgemud posted:

More low skill work would be lovely though, but I don't think our government and economy can will this into existence. The required slaughtering hard fought employment laws seem counterproductive and a 6h workday appears to be unpopular utopianism.

Isn't there like a major housing bubble in Scandinavia and elsewhere due to lack of construction? I mean yeah you can't just say "put these guys to work" and everything's fixed, but there is some necessary work to be done even if it's not America levels of "bridges are falling apart".

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

computer parts posted:

Isn't there like a major housing bubble in Scandinavia and elsewhere due to lack of construction? I mean yeah you can't just say "put these guys to work" and everything's fixed, but there is some necessary work to be done even if it's not America levels of "bridges are falling apart".
But popping a housing bubble is a bad thing, since it means you won't get reelected.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

computer parts posted:

Isn't there like a major housing bubble in Scandinavia and elsewhere due to lack of construction? I mean yeah you can't just say "put these guys to work" and everything's fixed, but there is some necessary work to be done even if it's not America levels of "bridges are falling apart".

There sure is. In the olden days that was resolved by the government declaring that 1 million occupancies should be built. To accomplish this they gave the state pension funds clear directions to finance the necessary activities. This enabled municipal stakeholders to build massive amounts of housing and rental properties of which only the high-density (1/3 of total) have been proven bad decisions in retrospect. (socially, financially they were all sound)

Today it is resolved by chanting 'free market' into the bathroom mirror until financial collapse absolves us all.

MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Jul 31, 2016

NihilismNow
Aug 31, 2003

computer parts posted:

Isn't there like a major housing bubble in Scandinavia and elsewhere due to lack of construction?

No 140 year mortages are totally normal and not indicative of a bubble.

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

computer parts posted:

Isn't there like a major housing bubble in Scandinavia and elsewhere due to lack of construction? I mean yeah you can't just say "put these guys to work" and everything's fixed, but there is some necessary work to be done even if it's not America levels of "bridges are falling apart".

Nobody wants to pop the bubble by issuing mass construction orders, this would be terrible for a large chunk of the voter base and no ruling party want to be responsible for crashing the economy. The current strategy is to force a slow deflation of the bubble by placing stricter limits on lending and by encouraging construction. At the moment this strategy appears to have started to slow down the bubble growth and together with more forceful methods of easing/promoting/forcing construction alongside changes targeting the ease of privately lending large sums the state could possibly be successfull in deflating the bubble over time, possibly...

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

That bubble is also royally strong here in the UK. One of the own-goals of the Remain campaign during the referendum was going "IF WE LEAVE THE EU HOUSE PRICES COULD DROP BY 30% !!!!"

Forgetting that for most people that's actually a really good thing since home ownership has been basically in freefall for anyone younger than generation X. Sure go tell the majority of the UK that home ownership would be more viable if we leave, that's a fantastic scare tactic.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Tesseraction posted:

That bubble is also royally strong here in the UK. One of the own-goals of the Remain campaign during the referendum was going "IF WE LEAVE THE EU HOUSE PRICES COULD DROP BY 30% !!!!"

Forgetting that for most people that's actually a really good thing since home ownership has been basically in freefall for anyone younger than generation X. Sure go tell the majority of the UK that home ownership would be more viable if we leave, that's a fantastic scare tactic.
Wouldn't home ownership be far more common among the people who reliably vote though? Or is it not high enough even there for this to be a good talking point?

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

People are know to vote against their own interests, if you get them angry enough about some bullshit. It's not like anyone could ever be in favour of the pound taking a pounding, yet people still voted for it.

Emetic Hustler
May 5, 2009

quote:


The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleaders for the euro project, ignored warning signs of impending crisis, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory.

This is the lacerating verdict of the IMF’s top watchdog on the fund’s tangled political role in the eurozone debt crisis, the most damaging episode in the history of the Bretton Woods institutions.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

waitwhatno posted:

People are know to vote against their own interests, if you get them angry enough about some bullshit. It's not like anyone could ever be in favour of the pound taking a pounding, yet people still voted for it.
Looking it up, it seems like the opposite happened for the youth vote. Young people, while still underrepresented at the polling stations, were close to doubling their usual turnout, while skewing heavily toward voting for their own interests.

Oh no, socialists revolutionaries have taken control of the IMF.

Antifa Poltergeist
Jun 3, 2004

"We're not laughing with you, we're laughing at you"




loving hell salt the loving Earth.this reads like a comedy of errors where everyone is a incompetent fool or moronically corrupt.

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Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

MiddleOne posted:

There sure is. In the olden days that was resolved by the government declaring that 1 million occupancies should be built. To accomplish this they gave the state pension funds clear directions to finance the necessary activities. This enabled municipal stakeholders to build massive amounts of housing and rental properties of which only the high-density (1/3 of total) have been proven bad decisions in retrospect. (socially, financially they were all sound)

So you want to build actual ghettoes where we stuff all the immigrants?
Mind you, the high-density ones were also only meant to last so long and should have been torn down (which has actually happened) by now if not for obvious reasons?
Also, the public overspending in the 70s directly caused the crash in the 90s. We had massive inflation and 10% interest rates in the 80s as a cause of this.

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