greatn posted:

Yeah flip New Hampshire and that's a tie. Give trump the one district in Maine and that's a win. And NH has had some bad polling lately.

Cthulhumatic posted:

This is something that has bothered me about polling. Aren't they missing an enormous sample this way? I can think of maybe 5 people that I know with landlines, and they're over 50.

smg77 posted:

I want to believe but I also remember how dumb the poll unskewers were in 2012 so...

straight up brolic posted:

that's one way to win.

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

Clinton is losing FL at the moment.

computer parts posted:

Do you remember the Gallup drama as well?

computer parts posted:

Show me a poll that's outside MOE.

Cthulhumatic posted:

This is something that has bothered me about polling. Aren't they missing an enormous sample this way? I can think of maybe 5 people that I know with landlines, and they're over 50.

Dexo posted:

greatn posted:

Crystal Head Vodka is what I'm going to be drinking.

greatn posted:

Wasn't that from 2010?

quote:

Here’s a brief summary of those issues, several of which The Huffington Post addressed earlier in more detail:

Misidentification of Likely Voters. Like most other media pollsters, Gallup attempts to determine which respondents are likely to actually vote in November, using a procedure developed in the 1950s that involves a battery of questions, such as how often they’ve voted in the past and how much attention they’re paying to the election. Last year, this likely voter model moved Gallup’s estimate of the margin separating Obama and Romney 4 points in Romney’s direction.

“That, in and of itself,” Newport said, “was at least 1 point more towards Romney than the average of other polls that were using some time of likely voter model.” Thus, “on that sense alone,” he concluded, “they moved things too far in moving the sample towards Mitt Romney.”

While Gallup is continuing to investigate its likely voter procedures with a series of experiments in the fall 2013 state elections, it pointed out one big issue in 2012: that many Obama voters said they hadn’t given much thought to the election, removing them from the likely voter pool even though they intended to cast a ballot. Gallup is researching whether it needs to majorly overhaul or even replace the way it identifies likely voters.

Under-Representation of Regions. Gallup also weights its data by a variety of factors, including broad geographical regions such as the Midwest and the South. But each region contains several time zones. Due to differing response rates, Gallup didn’t interview enough people in certain time zones within some regions, effectively undersampling states that vote more Democratic.

Faulty Representation of Race and Ethnicity. As HuffPost first reported in June 2012, Gallup in recent years has used an unusual method to ask about race that distorted the racial composition of its samples when the data were weighted. Unlike most other pollsters, who ask respondents to select from a list of racial and ethnic categories, Gallup asked respondents whether they identified with each racial and ethnic group one by one. This led to a disproportionate number of people who said they were multiracial, and that in turn distorted the weighting procedure, effectively giving too much weight to some white voters.

Earlier this year, Gallup eliminated the yes/no racial questions and made some additional technical changes to its weighting procedures. As a result, Newport said, “we [now] do a better job moving our sample to the parameters we have as our gold standard ... for overall race representation.”

Nonstandard Sampling Method. Before 2011, Gallup had selected phone numbers using random digit dialing, or RDD, which calls randomly generated numbers. This is the procedure that most national media polls have used for decades. As reported by HuffPost earlier this year, Gallup made a significant change in 2011, when it dropped the RDD methodology for its landline sample, using instead numbers randomly selected from those listed in residential telephone directories.

Gallup was alone among national pollsters in making this move, which promised to cut costs by eliminating unproductive calling to business lines and nonworking numbers. But the change came with a downside: Not everyone who has a landline has a listed number. Although Gallup’s initial research indicated that cell phone calls would cover the difference, they didn’t: The listed sample turned out to be older and more heavily Republican than the RDD sample.

Gallup is now in the process of switching back to RDD sampling for both landline and mobile phones, Newport said.

“Although in theory the use of the landline listed sample made sense ... it probably was a contributing factor to a skew of the sample that we felt was inappropriate, and therefore, we’re making that change,” he said.

straight up brolic posted:

im trying fentanyl if Trump wins

straight up brolic posted:

the face of a man that pretends to know where the clitoris is

straight up brolic posted:

btw polling on landlines/local area code cellphones will consistently miss a larger and larger number of liberal voters.

For instance, my family has lived in Austin for five years, all have 314 cell phones, and doesn't have a landline. We're not particularly unique or interesting. Changing cellphone numbers is annoying and land lines are a pointless cost.

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

It is very hard for me to take these assertions seriously (the same with WampaLord's language barrier assertion) because it makes me think of Trump's silent majority and/or undercover voters.

7c Nickel posted:

Dude looks like a bad videogame model. Dude looks like someone took a picture of a normal face and then projected it onto a basketball.

7c Nickel posted:

Dude looks like a bad videogame model. Dude looks like someone took a picture of a normal face and then projected it onto a basketball.

straight up brolic posted:

im trying fentanyl if Trump wins

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

It is very hard for me to take these assertions seriously (the same with WampaLord's language barrier assertion) because it makes me think of Trump's silent majority and/or undercover voters.

computer parts posted:

Nope:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/04/gallup-poll-2012_n_3384882.html

Cthulhumatic posted:

As much as the rural idiots in my state (PA) want to burn the world with Trumpism, the two bastions of civilization here will keep it blue.

7c Nickel posted:

Dude looks like a bad videogame model. Dude looks like someone took a picture of a normal face and then projected it onto a basketball.

Periodiko posted:

Except Truman would be Trump, in this scenario.

straight up brolic posted:

the face of a man that pretends to know where the clitoris is

CroatianAlzheimers posted:

Pittsburgh and Harrisburg?

Cthulhumatic posted:

I meant to include Philly, but calling that civilization just seems wrong.

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

It is very hard for me to take these assertions seriously (the same with WampaLord's language barrier assertion) because it makes me think of Trump's silent majority and/or undercover voters.

vvvvv I'm picturing CelestialScribe holding up a laptop with all the 'toxx or shut the gently caress up' posts about him after Trump wins vvvvv

Eifert Posting posted:

Just signed up for Volunteering in Cinci. I assume cold calling is the most helpful thing? I do it half the day at work so I'd rather not but it's what I'm good at.

Gyges posted:

Landlines/local area code cellphones, English only polling, and other possible issues pointed out as to why polls may overstate Trump's numbers include logical reasons as to why they may skew the results and pertain to all elections. Nevada for example is notoriously poorly represented in polls due to Latino voters routinely being MIA in polling due to a variety of factors that include hours worked and language used. The Silent Majority and undercover voters are based on pure gut feelings with no real evidence or logic to support why they would effect this election but not others.

Zeeman posted:

berserker posted:

FairGame posted:

Looking at various models right now isn't real useful because they have no idea if HRC is in a free fall, if this is a temporary blip, or if this is the new normal. The giant dip the last couple of days is too sudden for any model to react well to.

Anyone going POST A MAP should cool it for a day or two until we get a sense of what the hell is happening and models can react appropriately.

FairGame posted:

Looking at various models right now isn't real useful because they have no idea if HRC is in a free fall, if this is a temporary blip, or if this is the new normal. The giant dip the last couple of days is too sudden for any model to react well to.

Anyone going POST A MAP should cool it for a day or two until we get a sense of what the hell is happening and models can react appropriately.

FairGame posted:

Looking at various models right now isn't real useful because they have no idea if HRC is in a free fall, if this is a temporary blip, or if this is the new normal. The giant dip the last couple of days is too sudden for any model to react well to.

Anyone going POST A MAP should cool it for a day or two until we get a sense of what the hell is happening and models can react appropriately.