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Dr Pepper
Feb 4, 2012

Don't like it? well...

bman in 2288 posted:

Actually, I have no idea if Kinzo is a sociopath, or if he's got another issue. His clear inability to deal with people outside of business transactions almost makes me want to say he's probably on the spectrum, but that doesn't explain his complete lack of affection for literally everyone we've seen him interact with. So maybe he is a sociopath.


He showed affection towards Kanon and Natsuhi in Episode 1! :eng101:

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bman in 2288
Apr 21, 2010

Dr Pepper posted:

He showed affection towards Kanon and Natsuhi in Episode 1! :eng101:

Oh. So he's just a completely horrible person, then.

I'm happy he dies. There. I said it. I'm happy he dies at the end of every episode we've seen so far, and hopefully more to come.

MonsterEnvy
Feb 4, 2012

Shocked I tell you
Though given what we have seen of him. His niceness towards Natsuhi is kind of out of character.

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


I'm just happy that Rudolf wanted to pet the wolves. He really is the best of Kinzos kids (though he was a jerk to rosa too).

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?

oath2order posted:

As for everyone else's reaction, all they can say for sure is that kinzo had a much younger mistress on the island at that time. Remember, you're just kind of assuming he is a monster, based on Beatrice's story about spells and homunculi.

Well, he's not exactly given me much reason to suspect otherwise, hasn't he? All of his children have horrible memories of him, and his "affection" towards the servants is somewhat mitigated by the fact that he raised some of them to believe they're frigging familiars as well as furniture; not really great.

Which makes his little moment with Natsuhi the odd one out there. Was he trying to manipulate her in some way? Was he moved out of love, or sorrow for a life misspent? Or did she just catch him in a generous mood? It's one of the genuine puzzlers of the game, given our information.

John Lee
Mar 2, 2013

A time traveling adventure everyone can enjoy

Gotta say, it's pretty cute how Beatrice got mad at Battler for not wanting to hear stories of her past, then got sorry about it and wrote an elaborate story of her past into the game anyway.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug

bman in 2288 posted:

Oh poo poo, really? I did not pick up on that.

But something I did pick up on was how Eva and Krauss treat Rudolf and Rosa differently. Sure, they're still mocking Rudolf, but it really does feel as though it's closer to ribbing than the "go gently caress yourself" they throw at Rosa every time she opens her mouth.

This loving family, it's hard for me to want to solve the mystery when it involves dealing with 2 turbo-assholes and a sociopath.

Actually, I have no idea if Kinzo is a sociopath, or if he's got another issue. His clear inability to deal with people outside of business transactions almost makes me want to say he's probably on the spectrum, but that doesn't explain his complete lack of affection for literally everyone we've seen him interact with. So maybe he is a sociopath.

But I'm just a goon who's completely unqualified to diagnose anime characters. Gonna need more information to attempt to work with.

Yeah, solving the mystery would be less motivating if the children and servants weren't also murdered.

Yurigasaki
Feb 27, 2016

Lulu's so clever!
Man, I've been waiting and waiting for us to get to this part of the story. It's the manga's adaptation of this scene that actually made me an Umineko fan again after years of disinterest in the series when the anime left me really unsatisfied. It's also the chapter that rocketed Rosa up the list as one of my favourite characters when I finally played the VN version. EP3 is my favorite episode for lots of other reasons but this scene is probably the biggest one.

Rosa and Beatrice's talk really does make me sad, though. It's cut short very quick but I always sort of wish there was a way to see more of them together and get a stronger idea of what Rosa was like at that age. It's really saddening to see that even with how scared and unsure she was, there was a little bit of her that was still kind and brave enough to reach out and help someone she could tell was suffering. When you compare that girl to the Rosa we know now, a bitter, vile and horribly toxic person... it really underlines what growing up in this family must've been like, I think.

Dr Pepper
Feb 4, 2012

Don't like it? well...

So hey remember this bit from last episode? :v:

ProfessorProf posted:



How long has this unknown witch been living on this island?! I used to live on this island. I lived on this island, passing the time in the mansion, in the rose garden. And even so, I never encountered a witch like that... never... I think...

"Mama...? Mama...? What's wrong...? Mama...?!"



...I was probably getting a little mixed up with my memories from when I was a young girl. When I was a young girl, unlike Maria, I was very frightened of the witch. So for me, the name Beatrice was a synonym for something frightening. So surely, my feeling of fear from my days as a young girl has been revived because a woman calling herself that has appeared...

...She couldn't be a witch. She's obviously a 'human' calling herself Beatrice, right?

Robindaybird
Aug 21, 2007

Neat. Sweet. Petite.

I'm glad someone else noticed Rudolf's reaction to wolves is "Can I pet them??" and him being terrified of a witch compare to his current-ish self telling Battler that stuff doesn't exist.

But man, poor Rosa, she really got the worst out of all the adults.

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?
Just to set expectations, here's something I want to get out in advance to avoid future disappointment:

There will not be an ironically-timed Christmas update. There may not be an update on Christmas at all. Getting two holidays in a row was awesome, but there's only one thing I can think of putting there, and it's not all that clever and I'd have to slow down my schedule pretty dramatically to land it. So, yeah.

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


ProfessorProf posted:

Just to set expectations, here's something I want to get out in advance to avoid future disappointment:

There will not be an ironically-timed Christmas update. There may not be an update on Christmas at all. Getting two holidays in a row was awesome, but there's only one thing I can think of putting there, and it's not all that clever and I'd have to slow down my schedule pretty dramatically to land it. So, yeah.

It's ok, Prof. There's always Valentine's Day.

Rody One Half
Feb 18, 2011

And White Day even

Like Clockwork
Feb 17, 2012

It's only the Final Battle once all the players are ready.

Poor Baby-Rosa and Human-Beatrice... And man, the Ushiromiya siblings are such assholes to each other. Can't even take two minutes to stop making GBS threads on each other so they can hear information. It's no wonder Rosa's such a mess as an adult. Wanting to pet the wolves is :3: as hell though, I will give them that.

I wonder if Human-Beatrice survived the fall? Ten meters is pretty drat high, but if my conversion is right it's not a guaranteed death from impact... Not really enough information to say either way at this point, although more likely than not the fall was fatal due to the terrain and lack of medical help. It's an interesting hole in our knowledge, though.

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?


"..."
"...What happened to her, Rosa?"

Rosa fell silent. Her gaze dropped to her feet, as though she were seeing through the floor into some disgusting memory...



Eva's brutal words were the ones Rosa had most wanted to avoid. And when she was hit with them, she screamed in resignation.



BGM: The Candles Dance

"I spoke to her, shook her!! But she refused to respond, not even a blink...no, she wouldn't even close her eyelids!! It was my fault! She was wearing a dress, remember?! Even though I knew her outfit was difficult to move in, I said we should go down the cliff!! She was incredibly innocent, so she obeyed what I said without any doubts...!!"



"I was just flirting with your friend the sexy-assed chick. More importantly, what the heck's going on here?"
"Well, as you can see, I missed my footing, fell down, and died."
"What the hell...? Even though you showed up as the 19th person... you were already dead...?"
"Don't mess with me, that's impossible...! Aunt Rosa was a kid, and she was panicked. And it's not like a doctor was there. She probably just mistakenly thought you were dead, and you were probably...umm...alive and pretending to be dead or something. Isn't that right?!"

It can't be true. She's got to be alive. Otherwise, how can she be here...?!



I stared into that face too, but her eyes were still open, and it really was a corpse. I wanted to dodge the issue by saying something vague, like 'she must be playing dead', but no matter how I looked at it, it didn't look fake at all... it really did look like she was dead... Beatrice had fallen upside down from a cliff of that height, and her head had smashed against the pointed tip of those sharp rocks.

...Yeah, you probably would die... after landing on those rocks... from that height... But I couldn't accept it... No matter how dead she looked, she had to be alive...! Then, she went on to become this drat irritating witch! That makes all the inconsistencies fit. Grandfather must have kept her confined constantly in a hidden mansion. Then, to take revenge for that, she committed several atrocious murders!

Aunt Rosa probably just mistakenly thought she was dead. But she was actually alive, and as soon as Aunt Rosa left, would miraculously breathe again. Then, she somehow lived on until today...and opened the curtain on her revenge drama. Otherwise, the facts don't fit together!!

"...I won't let you trick me so easily. Can you repeat it in red?! That she's certainly dead!! She has to be alive, right?! It's obvious!!"



"...Nnngggggg..."

My theory that the 19th person was Grandfather's mistress, a human Beatrice, had been defeated. I had planned to strike back from a defensive position, but...

"...Then... who are you? You just died, right?! Don't tell me you revived yourself with magic?!"
"*cackle*cackle* I've already explained that, have I not? The 'me' lying over there definitely possesses my soul, but that body's nothing more than a cage of flesh tying me to the physical world. This is how that cage of flesh was broken. Do you understand what that means?"
"...I don't have a clue anymore. ...Keep having fun with your witch girl tricks. I'll listen to that in place of a snack! What the... it's empty. Hey, could I get some more black tea?"
"*cackle*cackle*! Ronove, our guest would like some tea."



...Butlers sure are convenient.

"A refill, you say? Certainly. How much shall I pour you?"
"Well, I've got more than enough snacks. Half will be fine."
"Even so, filling it to the brim is the English custom."

Even though just enough to wet my throat would have been fine, he filled it to the top. I turned my back to Beato, sipping it in silence...



Rosa shook me... no, shook the corpse that had once been me. I watched over her from a short distance away. Ah, so I fell from there and died...

For a while, I believed that was true. I saw Rosa spend a long time beside my corpse, then watched her as she ran away. Eventually, I realized that I was a different individual from that corpse...



BGM: Haruka

Eventually, I felt the memory returning... The fact that I was an Endless Witch who had lived for one thousand years. Then, I remembered that I'd been summoned by Kinzo, and that I'd been imprisoned by him for a long time...

While being imprisoned in a cage of flesh, I completely lost my memory as a witch. However, thanks to Rosa, if you could say that... Thanks to my accidental death, I'd now finally regained my self...

"...Rosa, you probably regret bringing about my death. But I should be thanking you. *cackle*cackle*!"

I couldn't see Rosa anymore. Did she go to call a doctor, or was she so terrified that she ran away? It no longer matters. That soulless shell no longer has any value.

And yet... I'm so frail now. Even this glorious midday sun is agony to me. I destroyed my human form. Then, I changed it into several gold butterflies. Yes, with my magical power as frail as it is now, this form is easier to maintain.

To escape even a little from the light of the sun, I rode the wind and gently flew up the side of the cliff. It will probably be a bit cooler in the forest. Anyway, I'll take some time to recuperate and regain my former power. As I ponder how to make Kinzo pay up all he owes me.



On the rocky shore... lay the figure of what had once been me, the figure I would eventually regain. To regain the form of that physical body I had thrown away, it would probably take more than one hundred, two hundred days. And it might require one thousand days, or perhaps even more. However, I am the Endless Witch. The Golden Witch who has lived for one thousand years. Waiting any countable number of days would be no problem.

*cackle*cackle* Oh, Kinzo. Regret that you are not here now. No longer will you be able to capture me. *cackle*cackle*!



BGM: Voiceless

"That is correct. I take this form to sneer at you, but most of the time, it is easier magically for me to keep my form as gold butterflies."
"Hey, feel free to take a load off and stick to whatever's easiest. I wouldn't mind not having to hear your irritating laugh."
"*cackle*cackle* When I turned into butterflies and slipped into the forest, it was already no longer possible for Kinzo to find me. However, Kinzo was not dismayed. Still, he was not immediately able to prepare a way to catch me."
"So, he first moved to prevent me from leaving this island... and to keep me from regaining my power."
"...My, my. At any rate, Kinzo's spitefulness was unimaginable. It was pretty tough to be loved by someone like that. *cackle*cackle*!"
"He found a way to keep you from leaving after you turned into butterflies? What, did he put a bug net around the entire forest?"
"Indeed. A magical one. Didn't you know? On the sea in front of the harbor is a reef... upon which sits a small shrine of Eastern magic."
"...Ah, that. It was gone by this year, though. It was a small shrine built long ago by a mountaineering ascetic, right?"



"*cackle*cackle*, please."
"...They brought harm to humans and probably left several eerie legends in their wake. That small shrine was built in ancient times by an Eastern magician who heard of them. A long time passed, and that power was lost. By repairing it, Kinzo restored this island's barrier... and once again bound me to the island."
"...Can Eastern magic work on a Western witch like you?"
"Normally, the affinity would be poor. However, for the purpose of sealing me here, it may have been quite convenient in a way."
"If it was Western magic, I would have had some knowledge. For any barrier, there would have been some measures I could have taken. But Eastern magic is outside my area of expertise. It was as if I had been given chopsticks instead of a spoon for some soup that I wanted to drink."
"In a space dominated by Eastern magic, Western magic loses much of its power. Even if she were given one thousand days to regain her strength, she would have to wait many, many more."
"...So you're saying it took you 20 years to regain your power, and now you've revived, as we can all see?"



"...That period of 20 years was fortunate for me. Kinzo tried to use all sorts of magic to find and capture me, but each failed. There's a limit to how many miracles a single human can bring about. Even simply holding me captive for that long had been a miracle far above his place. It would be unthinkable for me to be captured like that multiple times."
"...Grandfather said something in the previous game. It was something like... magic lies in a miracle of probability."
"Indeed. As Kinzo was searching for a hidden art to capture me again, he stumbled upon that. Then, he finally worked out the ceremony involving the offering of 13 people as sacrifices to revive me again."
"13 people... as sacrifices..."
"That is the witch's epitaph. A song of sacrifices. Six people on the first twilight. Two people on the second. And then five more people on the fourth through eight twilights. A forbidden ceremony, involving the offering of a total of 13 people as sacrifices... Those sacrifices were to be chosen randomly, and the one who held the ceremony, Kinzo himself, was no exception."



I'd had a vague idea that this might be the case... But I couldn't just hear that it was true from a witch and a demon and say 'Oh, really?' and accept it!

"There are 18 people on Rokkenjima. 13 are offered as sacrifices, five are left alive. Then I revive."
"...In other words, the odds that Kinzo will be able to meet me again are probably around one in three. He bet his own life on those odds, wishing for a reunion with me for the last bit of his remaining life."
"...You're saying he gathered our family for the sake of that joke of a ceremony?! Don't gently caress with me!! Don't say stuff like that, drat it!!"
"It was all set out in our contract from the beginning. When Kinzo's life ended, all the gold I lent him and all of the assets he created would be given to me."
"...Yes, Kinzo did stab me in the back quite brutally, but looking back now, it was a rare and precious time during my thousand years of life. After all, boredom is my natural enemy. To Kinzo, who offered me a chance to run away from that for several decades... yes, you could say I owe him for that."
"I decided to go along with Kinzo's game. So, to start, Kinzo returns the Ushiromiya Family Head's Ring to me. It was my gold that revived the family, after all."
"...Then, 13 people are chosen at random to be sacrifices. While that happens, you all run about, showing me all kinds of human interactions as you try to oppose me, and entertaining me greatly. Yes, I truly have taken a liking to this game of Kinzo's! *cackle*cackle*."
"Aaaaaaaaaahh!! I definitely won't believe in that kind of magic story! Then who are you?! You fell off a cliff and died, right?! Your soul slipped out, became butterflies, and went to the forest? That isn't possible!!"
"But you're here! Who are you?!! Aren't you the 19th person?!"
"That is true, I am the 19th person."
"*cackle*cackle*! But it's no good, I'm afraid...? It's no goddamn good at all!"





BGM: Black Lilliana

"Wha... what did you saaaaaaay...?! So you're saying... that the 'X' in the 18+X doesn't exist?! Are you saying the piece I took... the X... doesn't exist?!"
"Pu ku ku ku... That is what this means. My condolences. Still, you do move fast, Milady. And I thought you'd let him flounder about before spinning everything around at the end. Well then, Battler-sama, would some more tea be agreeable?"
"I-I don't need it, drat it!! I don't believe it! The culprit can't be one of the 18! Then what are you, and why are you here?!! If the 19th person doesn't exist, then are you saying you're one of the 18 in disguise?!"
"*cackle*cackle*! Perhaps you are castling. Though reluctantly, you are doubting one of the 18 people as your last way out."
"However, it will be difficult for me from here on out. If you choose to stop caring about propriety, you could prepare a culprit freely amid 18 people! Making you reach checkmate by evading those 18 pieces... will be truly difficult."
"As if I'd do that!! I won't suspect any of the 18! I don't want to suspect people!! Have I really been cornered here again...?! drat it, drat it, drat it!!"
"It looks like we're finally approaching the end, in the third round of this game of ours. You've nowhere to run anymore, right? *cackle*cackle*! You don't want to suspect any of those beloved people in the 18, do you? Were you trying to hide that from me? Then why do you refuse me?"
"They say you should play the opening like a book, the middle game like a magician, and the endgame like a machine. I'll corner you from here on. Slowly, carefully, surely. Or, on the other hand, would it be better if I pressed you all at once, which might suit your style more?"





BGM: Ageha

























Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

ProfessorProf posted:

Request received, I'll get a recording tonight.

So about that video??

And as for the update, wow, that was a really impressive dick move, Beato.

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?
Whoops! I forgot. I'll hit that tonight.

Jeabus Mahogany
Feb 13, 2011

I'm mad because of a thorn in my impenetrable hide
Haha yeah, nice loving try Beato. "This" Rokkenjima? Fine. But what about the original timeline Rokkenjima? Or the next loop's Rokkenjima? There's still the possibility.

Aumanor
Nov 9, 2012

Jeabus Mahogany posted:

Haha yeah, nice loving try Beato. "This" Rokkenjima? Fine. But what about the original timeline Rokkenjima? Or the next loop's Rokkenjima? There's still the possibility.

Probably looked less conspicuous in the original Japanese.

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?
That is indeed a translation artifact. Allow me to step in on Beatrice's behalf to clarify:

There are no more than 18 humans on the island of Rokkenjima. This is true now and on all previous game boards.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica

Jeabus Mahogany posted:

Haha yeah, nice loving try Beato. "This" Rokkenjima? Fine. But what about the original timeline Rokkenjima? Or the next loop's Rokkenjima? There's still the possibility.

ahaha.wav

This is honestly the first time that I can remember seeing someone doubt the phrasing here. Maybe it's just because of my bad memory though.

Stop lying to yourselves and just play the game properly :witch:

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?

ProfessorProf posted:

That is indeed a translation artifact. Allow me to step in on Beatrice's behalf to clarify:

There are no more than 18 humans on the island of Rokkenjima. This is true now and on all previous game boards.

Hm. Well, there go any easy answers that Battler was hoping for; if there are only 18 people in this game, that means there was no baby (thank heaven for that at least, no rapes here) and no untoward visitors we don't know about. Which means that one of the 18 is, indeed, our Murderer, and even though Battler has feelings about suspecting his family of murder, we have no such compunction being outside observers... so who, exactly could it be?

It's not the kids; none of them believe in the legend and all of them are willful to their parents to some degree, and in all of the scenarios we've seen, there's no way they could have done the murders as they stand. Yes, I'm including Maria there; I grant that she'll run the odd errand of reading and placing letters at times, but her reactions to things when craziness ensues are just too adverse to the profile of the murderer. It's probably not Dr. Nanjo either; he just acts too bewildered, and has ended up dead both times so far. Being dead both times too early is also the problem of a few other people, namely Krauss, Rudolph, Kirie, Natsuhi, Eva, and Shannon- I don't see how they do the murders with the info provided, due to either being dead at the time, or not having the means or opportunity. I also don't suspect Gohda or Kanon either, the former for being an outsider and the latter for the confluence of motive, opportunity, and general attitude during the games (always coming back to his getting betrayed in some way by Beatrice during them- what does that mean?).

Who does that leave? Kinzo, Genji, and Kuwabara- the oldest servants and the people with the most ties to each other. Conspiracy theories till now have painted one working with another, but maybe they're all in cahoots; I believe that Genji would absolutely kill if his master asked hem to- even a family member- and Kuwabara, while she might not have the wherewithal to kill, would certainly do anything else, including taking her own life. How does this scenario sound for the first game: Genji does the first five people, and tries to get Natsuhi, but is surprised by Shannon-she gets killed instead. Then the faces are removed (so that they can potentially be used later), and they're locked in the shed with the master key. Later, Genji, or perhaps Kinzo, comes to Eva's door (or perhaps was hiding there all along) and kill them, setting it up with the stakes, and then hide somewhere in the room until everyone goes away- there was no roomcheck after the corpses were discovered, after all. Sometime during or immediately after, Kuwabara (probably) gets Krauss/Rudolph's body, dress it in Kinzo's clothes, and put it in the furnace; during this process they are surprised by Kanon, so he gets killed. Later, when Genji, Nanjo, Kuwabara and Maria get sent out of the room, they go to the guest room and Kinzo comes in, and orders Genji and Kuwabara to kill Nanjo, and then themselves; somebody (probably Kuwabara) tells maria to face the wall and sing a song. Later, Natsuhi rushes out to confront Beatrice with a gun, and Kinzo in on the stairs there, and he either outdraws her with another gun of his own (if he's such a westaboo, he probably has another firearm stashed somewhere), or... he tells her to kill herself somehow, and she agrees.

OK, there are some holes, I allow, but it's a theory on how the First game could have gone down.

And wait a minute... as long as I'm spitballing, I can do the second game too, using this theory. Because if it's sound, then that means there were three people who could have killed the six and set up the Halloween Banquet in the chapel, which is very feasible, and then switched the envelopes with Maria to set up the master key trick. Then, when Kanon was with Jessica, that meant that Genji and/or Kuwabara could kill them in their room, ditch Kanon's corpse, and lock the door. Then later, when in the servants rooms, Nanjo gets killed- either by Genji or Kuwabara- and the latter is either killed or takes her own life, and Gohda and Shannon are told to keep mum or else. Leaving Kinzo to take the bodies and gouge them (locking the door using Kuwabara's key) or Kuwabara to take Nanjo's corps away, kill herself, and both corpses to be gouged by Kinzo. Then, the Kinzo/Genji combo come on the trio in Natsuhi's room, and kill Gohda, Shannon, and George, and gouge the bodies, and the rest is history and a lot of nonsense about cannibalistic goatmen.

resurgam40 fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Dec 9, 2016

Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?

resurgam40 posted:

No good, no goddamn good at all, etc

It's Kumasawa, not Kuwabara, but still, another fine post. If I might challenge it a bit, I'm curious how Kinzo and Genji locked the last closed room in EP2 while Rosa was in control of every key.

tiistai
Nov 1, 2012

Solo Melodica
Hoh

resurgam40 posted:

Later, Genji, or perhaps Kinzo, comes to Eva's door (or perhaps was hiding there all along) and kill them, setting it up with the stakes, and then hide somewhere in the room until everyone goes away- there was no roomcheck after the corpses were discovered, after all.

Reading the scene, Kumasawa was on her knees on the floor presumably near the door while Kanon was investigating the room. If the murderer was hiding, they could have sneaked out while Kanon was in the bathroom checking Hideyoshi, with Kumasawa letting them go. However, at the time Genji was reporting to Natsuhi and the two arrive at the scene right then. The kids catch up soon afterwards.

resurgam40 posted:

Sometime during or immediately after, Kuwabara (probably) gets Krauss/Rudolph's body, dress it in Kinzo's clothes, and put it in the furnace; during this process they are surprised by Kanon, so he gets killed.

After they leave the crime scene, everyone notices the smell and Kumasawa wonders if she hadn't turned the flame off in the kitchen. Genji tells Kanon to go with her, with the words "do not let her be alone", so he probably did just that. Not to mention the burnt stench was already there, surely the corpse had already been in the furnace by that time.

Robindaybird
Aug 21, 2007

Neat. Sweet. Petite.

The only issue with using Rudolf's or Krauss' body to fake Kinzo's death is that the group ID'd the body as Kinzo's due to his six toes - which is an inheritable trait, it's not a very common one,

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Polydactyly is tied to more than 3 dozen genetic mutations, some of which are dominant. (I don't know if it would still manifest as extra toes, though.) I don't think the game has mentioned if Kinzo inherited it from one of his parents, or if his was an apparently spontaneous expression. Sometimes the trait appears to skip generations, so his parents might not have expressed polydactyly, but could've each independently carried recessive alleles.

Let's assume Kinzo's wife is the biological mother of all 4 siblings but doesn't have any recessive or dominant polydactyly genes and Kinzo's polydactyly is a dominant allele. Then if I remember right, each kid has a 50% chance of inheriting polydactyly from Kinzo. The cumulative probability of one or more siblings having an extra digit is something like 93% (thanks to Sodacan who linked me to a binomial probability calculator thing, because I couldn't remember how the hell to calculate this morning).

resurgam40
Jul 22, 2007

Battler, the literal stupidest man on earth. Why are you even here, Battler, why did you come back to this place so you could fuck literally everything up?

ProfessorProf posted:

It's Kumasawa, not Kuwabara, but still, another fine post. If I might challenge it a bit, I'm curious how Kinzo and Genji locked the last closed room in EP2 while Rosa was in control of every key.

drat names! But that would be one of the holes I'm talking about; the only suppositions I can make that doesn't contradict any red is a) the theory I've already advanced about Krauss having an extra key to natsuhi's room on him that either Kinzo or Genji snagged, which is a reach given the nature of keys in that chapter, and b) whatever method Kinzo uses to get around the place without anyone seeing, which I allow is most likely that he just gets the servants to unlock the doors and keep mum about where he is, in which case we run into the same problem as before. If these are not true, and if there are no copies to the master keys and no place to get out the window... I'm still stumped as to how they get about.

tiistai posted:

Reading the scene, Kumasawa was on her knees on the floor presumably near the door while Kanon was investigating the room. If the murderer was hiding, they could have sneaked out while Kanon was in the bathroom checking Hideyoshi, with Kumasawa letting them go. However, at the time Genji was reporting to Natsuhi and the two arrive at the scene right then. The kids catch up soon afterwards.

Meaning if anyone was hiding there, that it would have to be Kinzo, which means we would have to be a quick bugger getting away, or a patient one to wait until everyone had left and used his Super Secret Method, Do Not Steal to get out. He is not described as being particularly slow, but he is an old guy, meaning the timing of everything had to be exactly right... which it still could have been, given that we had Kumasawa to give him the all clear and Genji in the hallway to distract Natsuhi if needed. It's still difficult, but feasible.

tiistai posted:

After they leave the crime scene, everyone notices the smell and Kumasawa wonders if she hadn't turned the flame off in the kitchen. Genji tells Kanon to go with her, with the words "do not let her be alone", so he probably did just that. Not to mention the burnt stench was already there, surely the corpse had already been in the furnace by that time.

Meaning... what, that only Kinzo had time to prepare and burn the body? Re-reading, it looks like Genji and Kumasawa were with the family all until stuff got hinky again, which would support that... this theory involves an old man doing a lot of things by himself. And you're right; there was no surprising going on, unless Kanon surprised Kinzo, and either he killed him or Kumasawa came up behind and got him. The way the scene is written is particularly suspicious here: apparently, Kumasawa dashes off after Kanon when he goes to the boiler, meaning she should have been right behind him, so... where was she, exactly?

EagerSleeper
Feb 3, 2010

by R. Guyovich
Let's get to murdering. :twisted:

Yurigasaki
Feb 27, 2016

Lulu's so clever!
You know, if you subscribe to the idea that the Golden Witch Beatrice did it, then that really does neatly fill all the holes in your theories. :toot:

Qrr
Aug 14, 2015


So this time around when it went over the people it skipped Maria, Kumasawa, and Nanjo. The first time it skipped Maria and Natsuhi and the second it skipped Shannon, Kumasawa, and Nanjo. I don't really see a pattern in this - I wonder if it means anything.


Oh, and Beatrice saying there are only 18 humans on Rokkenjima, with the clarification that it applies to all Rokkenjimas, is inconvenient for the second one where Beatrice shows up and a lot of people meet her. On the other hand the second one is a pain from a lot of perspectives.

Also, does she not think witches are human? She certainly seems to have started as human from the bit of her past that we maybe saw. I tend to think of witch as a profession rather than a species. Alternatively she could think she isn't on Rokkenjima.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
I think witches aren't being counted as humans, so she's not violating her own rules.

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


A witch is not a human, for the purposes of this game. Honestly, witch is probably the wrong word for it, since as described Beato is far more like a malicious spirit than a witch.

Speaking of, it's easy to miss, but Lucifer apparently killed Battler after their last scene together and he had spent that entire flashback dead, which I find kind of darkly hilarious.

oath2order fucked around with this message at 02:14 on Dec 10, 2016

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
Killing was the only way to make him stop interrupting and listen

Honestly, youth these days.

Kinu Nishimura
Apr 24, 2008

SICK LOOT!

MonsterEnvy
Feb 4, 2012

Shocked I tell you
So everyone. Who did you think the first six will be this time around.

Sindai
Jan 24, 2007
i want to achieve immortality through not dying
18 humans, eh? Nice try, Robobeatrice.

POOL IS CLOSED
Jul 14, 2011

I'm just exploding with mackerel. This is the aji wo kutta of my discontent.
Pillbug
This doesn't eliminate someone's chimpanzee theory.

SardonicTyrant
Feb 26, 2016

BTICH IM A NEWT
熱くなれ夢みた明日を
必ずいつかつかまえる
走り出せ振り向くことなく
&



Something funny I just noticed while reading from the beginning.
In the prologue Battler and Rudolf are screwing around and Rudolf grabs Battler by the ear. He then proceeds to repeat the Konami code using Battler's ear.

So, all of this looping? It's not magic. Battler just has extra lives.

oath2order
Oct 12, 2013

It's MAGIC. I don't have to explain shit!


SardonicTyrant posted:

Something funny I just noticed while reading from the beginning.
In the prologue Battler and Rudolf are screwing around and Rudolf grabs Battler by the ear. He then proceeds to repeat the Konami code using Battler's ear.

So, all of this looping? It's not magic. Battler just has extra lives.

Hey, no posting spoilers as speculation.

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Quinn2win
Nov 9, 2011

Foolish child of man...
After reading all this,
do you still not understand?
Sorry, video's getting delayed by another day. I got some meds injected directly into my wrists this morning and they still feel like garbage from that, so LP work is more or less impossible.

Tomorrow, hopefully.

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