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How many quarters after Q1 2016 till Marissa Mayer is unemployed?
1 or fewer
2
4
Her job is guaranteed; what are you even talking about?
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blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

the talent deficit posted:

an auction sounds good but it would just mean google/fb/oracle/salesforce replace highly paid americans with foreigners making the new auction price/h1b min

These companies (at least some of them -- no idea about say Oracle) are paying H1Bs equally today so I'm not sure why you'd expect this to change under a new system. Under the current one they could also lowball their existing H1B applicants pretty much as hard as they want but aren't.

the talent deficit posted:

O1 is for like justin bieber and sidney crosby, not a dude researching hidden states of matter or whatever

i'm all for visa/immigration reform, but just being like 'let's just auction off h1b's!' isn't even a start

At my last job I worked with someone whose pre-tech resume was 'very good but not great postdoc in EE' and he got an O1 so I don't think it's quite as extreme as that. You need a really good publication record and to have other peer-reviewed work talking about you, from what I could tell. My guess is that with the right immigration lawyers -- which I'm pretty sure is not the case for most applicants -- a lot of tenured profs could get O1s.

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jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost

blah_blah posted:

At my last job I worked with someone whose pre-tech resume was 'very good but not great postdoc in EE' and he got an O1 so I don't think it's quite as extreme as that. You need a really good publication record and to have other peer-reviewed work talking about you, from what I could tell. My guess is that with the right immigration lawyers -- which I'm pretty sure is not the case for most applicants -- a lot of tenured profs could get O1s.

The O series of visas is explicitly designed to fit professors, postdocs etc who have enough publications and research to their name. You can even get an O visa by, say, creating a mobile app that gets a reasonable amount of press, or being a columnist who gets a reasonable amount of readership, etc. One of the criteria is "makes more money than average" in whatever your field is. It's not super difficult (though obviously not easy either).

Anyway, all that mostly applies for the O2 visa I think, which is the more logical replacement for H1B (you need to be senior level, but then it's better in every way than H1B).

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese
Reading all this stuff on US immigration law and living in the UK while Brexit negotiations are going down just makes me never ever want to try and emigrate to another country. It sounds like a loving nightmare.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

MikeCrotch posted:

Reading all this stuff on US immigration law and living in the UK while Brexit negotiations are going down just makes me never ever want to try and emigrate to another country. It sounds like a loving nightmare.

It's only for the first few years or until you find someone to shack up with. Everything becomes a lot easier once you become a permanent resident or citizen.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Remulak posted:

Meanwhile, people that have lived here for 10 years and make enough to have a house and a family in Marin County have to fight tooth and nail to keep their H1B.

What do you mean keep their H1-B? Are the renewals being denied?

the talent deficit posted:

O1 is for like justin bieber and sidney crosby, not a dude researching hidden states of matter or whatever

O definitely includes people significantly accomplished in a wide variety of fields. It's the same criteria as EB-1 PERM. I had O as an option when I was done with my H1B.

Motronic
Nov 6, 2009

NoDamage posted:

Exactly. It's also worth nothing that these IT consulting companies are largely multinationals headquartered in India: Tata (Mumbai), Infosys (Bangalore), Wipro (Bangalore), etc. It seems like a bizarre subversion of process for them to open US branches and then proceed to abuse the H1B system to import foreign workers to work in said branches. But this is also very different from what Google, Amazon, etc are doing when they hire a H1B at competitive market rates, which was my original point.

I can't speak for google or Amazon, but we have legit offices in other countries and let employees move between them if it's feasible and we can accommodate it. Of course the headquarters is in SF and of course there is always more demand to come there than we can satisfy with the H1B system. It's also very expensive and a pain in the rear end for HR and our lawyers.

But every single one of these people are regionally adjusted to our top tier COL when moving to the bay area or new york and the entire process legitimately help the employees and the business do better work, and brings high salary taxable income employees to the US - far more people making higher relative salaries than the number of people who choose to go to non-US offices.

I don't know whether the system is broken or not, but I wanted to point out that it is being legitimately used as it was intended by at least some companies.

Remulak posted:

130 is too low, should be at least 140, probably 150. My guess is we fill every single available slot at 150.

This wouldn't change a singe thing about how we're using the H1B system. I say bring it on.

Remulak posted:

I say gently caress the h1-b and give them green cards, and let them find their own value in the marketplace. And let families over on the green cards while were at it.

I don't know the larger consequences to something like this, but from personal experience I'd love to see it happen for the people I work with.

TheScott2K
Oct 26, 2003

I'm just saying, there's a nonzero chance Trump has a really toad penis.
Oh hey this is neat and sucks: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/03/public-university-lays-off-79-it-workers-after-they-train-h-1b-replacements/

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Subjunctive posted:

O definitely includes people significantly accomplished in a wide variety of fields. It's the same criteria as EB-1 PERM. I had O as an option when I was done with my H1B.

That is correct. O visas are meant for the irreplaceable/uniquely qualified types. Sometimes that does mean a celebrity or famous entertainer, but it can also mean a scientist, accomplished software dude, or engineer.

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006


Note that this type of labor market arbitrage is more or less the worst abuse of the h1b system as is and also something that would be directly addressed via auctions or high price floors.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


Snap (née Snapchat) went public at $17/share, immediately bounced to $24, $26 at time of posting. That's a valuation comparable to Marriott's and Twitter's, one of which actually makes money.

New York Times posted:

Snap “looks tremendously overvalued to me,” said Brian Hamilton, a co-founder of Sageworks, a financial analysis and valuation firm.

Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst at MoffettNathanson, described Snap as a “field of dreams.” Even with rosy growth forecasts, “at $22 billion, we’re looking at a stock trading at five to eight times estimated revenues in 2020,” he said before the valuation rose even higher. “The only companies in that domain are Facebook and Alibaba, and they have massive scale. And both of them are profitable.”

There’s no point in comparing Snap’s profits to any of those companies, since Snap doesn’t have any. The company lost $514.6 million in 2016 and $372.9 million the year before, according to the prospectus it filed in February. It has lost money every year since it began commercial operation in 2011 and has warned it may never earn a profit.
...
To justify Snap’s valuation, “you have to make some very lofty assumptions,” Mr. Hamilton said. “They would need to grow for the next 10 years at more than 50 percent every year with a profit margin of 25 percent, which is extremely high given that they are now losing money rapidly.” He noted that very few companies had achieved such growth rates in the history of American business.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

blah_blah posted:

Note that this type of labor market arbitrage is more or less the worst abuse of the h1b system as is and also something that would be directly addressed via auctions or high price floors.

Auctions and high price floors, as previously mentioned, create a different form of abuse. There are elements in the current h1b system that are intended to prevent this form of outsourcing, and a variety of other more effective reforms that don't open the door to greater abuse.

TheScott2K
Oct 26, 2003

I'm just saying, there's a nonzero chance Trump has a really toad penis.
Why would you even IPO that company wait I just remembered why as I was typing this.

sleep with the vicious
Apr 2, 2010

Arsenic Lupin posted:

Snap (née Snapchat) went public at $17/share, immediately bounced to $24, $26 at time of posting. That's a valuation comparable to Marriott's and Twitter's, one of which actually makes money.

I just can't make sense of it. Where are they going to make money? Even if they have some next gen magic platform for VR or AR coming, I just can't see how they are worth this.

boner confessor
Apr 25, 2013

by R. Guyovich

sleep with the vicious posted:

I just can't make sense of it. Where are they going to make money? Even if they have some next gen magic platform for VR or AR coming, I just can't see how they are worth this.

i think the valuation is based on the fact that snapchat has a shitload of teen users, even if nobody's sure how to monetize that audience yet

Tiny Brontosaurus
Aug 1, 2013

by Lowtax
One of the most interesting things about this era is watching advertisers and retailers just completely refuse to accept that today's teens and 20somethings don't have the disposable income boomers and gen-xers did.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


boner confessor posted:

i think the valuation is based on the fact that snapchat has a shitload of teen users, even if nobody's sure how to monetize that audience yet
Yeah, and teenagers' tastes are in no way subject to change. I can't count the number of times I've seen the cycle of trendy platform overcomes dominant platform, then is overcome in its turn.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
A lot of this stuff starts to make more sense when you realize there is a borderline anthropomorphic huge pile of cash looking for a "high risk/potential home run" investment.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


pangstrom posted:

A lot of this stuff starts to make more sense when you realize there is a borderline anthropomorphic huge pile of cash looking for a "high risk/potential home run" investment.

Now I am imagining an amorphous pile of money flolloping its way across the countryside looking for a startup to consume. Thanks.

The MUMPSorceress
Jan 6, 2012


^SHTPSTS

Gary’s Answer

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

One of the most interesting things about this era is watching advertisers and retailers just completely refuse to accept that today's teens and 20somethings don't have the disposable income boomers and gen-xers did.

https://www.dailydot.com/unclick/millennials-not-buying-diamonds/

boner confessor
Apr 25, 2013

by R. Guyovich

tbf snapchat is big among the generation after millenials, people born since 2000, who at this point are just starting to graduate high school. these kids are still decent targets because they have poor spending habits and if they do have money, get it from their parents or part time jobs

thats why you target teens and youths, they typically don't have much money but they're willing to spend nearly all of it on shiny things

withak
Jan 15, 2003


Fun Shoe

boner confessor posted:

i think the valuation is based on the fact that snapchat has a shitload of teen users, even if nobody's sure how to monetize that audience yet

Snapchat will be fine until the moment that their audience has to worry about being friended/followed/whatever by their mom.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

quote:

. It has lost money every year since it began commercial operation in 2011 and has warned it may never earn a profit

Dr. Fishopolis
Aug 31, 2004

ROBOT

Arsenic Lupin posted:

Now I am imagining an amorphous pile of money flolloping its way across the countryside looking for a startup to consume. Thanks.

I think vampire squid is still a pretty good visual, but this works too.

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Discendo Vox posted:

Auctions and high price floors, as previously mentioned, create a different form of abuse. There are elements in the current h1b system that are intended to prevent this form of outsourcing, and a variety of other more effective reforms that don't open the door to greater abuse.

I'm thoroughly unconvinced that these abuses exist or would be likely to exist. Auction off visas, carve out a separate quota or new visa for postdocs and tenured professors (which should probably also be allocated via auctions -- having more postdocs making 35k/year isn't helping anyone) and you're basically there.

feedmegin
Jul 30, 2008

Motronic posted:

I can't speak for google or Amazon, but we have legit offices in other countries and let employees move between them if it's feasible and we can accommodate it.

Isn't that what the L1 visa is for? The H1B is for US companies who do not have offices in other countries to hire people from those countries if there's no one in the US who can what those particular people do. Intra-corporate moves are a different category. L1 visa holders' spouses can also get a visa that allows them to work, btw.

feedmegin fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Mar 2, 2017

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

blah_blah posted:

I'm thoroughly unconvinced that these abuses exist or would be likely to exist. Auction off visas, carve out a separate quota or new visa for postdocs and tenured professors (which should probably also be allocated via auctions -- having more postdocs making 35k/year isn't helping anyone) and you're basically there.

You don't understand why it's a bad idea to give technical visas solely to the companies with the most money to spend on them?

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

L1 isn't a guarantee, you need some seniority and provable that-business expertise. Spouse's L2 requires an EAD, which in my experience isn't a gimme. H4 can get an EAD once the PERM process is underway for the H1B holder. (I think 💭 nice the I-140 is processed.)

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Honestly I can't wait for merit based immigration because I'd be a shoe in. gently caress y'all

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Just get EB1 PERM, you don't need a visa at all.

Tiny Brontosaurus
Aug 1, 2013

by Lowtax

withak posted:

Snapchat will be fine until the moment that their audience has to worry about being friended/followed/whatever by their mom.

Please invest in my social media startup, Carousel, which automatically deletes your account the day you turn 30.

Dr. Fishopolis
Aug 31, 2004

ROBOT

Tiny Brontosaurus posted:

Please invest in my social media startup, Carousel, which automatically deletes your account the day you turn 30.

so you mean you can't RENEW it?

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

I think vampire squid is still a pretty good visual, but this works too.
Goldman Sachs is more the creature that takes fees, plays rigged games, and skims other people's optimistic money.

Tiny Brontosaurus
Aug 1, 2013

by Lowtax

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

so you mean you can't RENEW it?

All the ads will be for "seafood"

Motronic
Nov 6, 2009

feedmegin posted:

Isn't that what the L1 visa is for? The H1B is for US companies who do not have offices in other countries to hire people from those countries if there's no one in the US who can what those particular people do. Intra-corporate moves are a different category. L1 visa holders' spouses can also get a visa that allows them to work, btw.

I'm by no means a visa expert, but most people that have talked to me about this at my company are on H1Bs. Sounds like Subjunctive may have some idea of why this doesn't always work.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


I have worked with people a great deal smarter than I was* who were H-1Bs. I have also worked with H-1Bs who were almost entirely ignorant of software, and yes, from Tata. Clearly the magic system that we need lets everybody in the first category in, while excluding everybody in the second.

* you may now mock

pokie
Apr 27, 2008

IT HAPPENED!

https://theoutline.com/post/1166/programmers-are-confessing-their-coding-sins-to-protest-a-broken-job-interview-process

Interesting little story about the failure of whiteboard coding interview process.

withak
Jan 15, 2003


Fun Shoe

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

so you mean you can't RENEW it?

Clearly the solution is to charge a membership fee to anyone over 30.

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Discendo Vox posted:

You don't understand why it's a bad idea to give technical visas solely to the companies with the most money to spend on them?

Yes. I think that you overestimate the willingness of companies to overpay solely for the purposes of getting visas as well and probably also do not correctly estimate the composition of the absolute highest paid positions. They primarily aren't, and won't be, software engineers or tech workers. They will be executives, doctors, people working in finance, etc (feel free to verify this using http://h1bdata.info/ or any similar site).

Visas are primarily allocated to generate economic value and attract top-notch talent and compensation is an efficient proxy for that. Even if you disagree with that (it's certainly not a perfect proxy) it's certainly a massive improvement over the existing system, where an engineer making 500k/year at Google is put on equal footing with an engineer making 60k at Infosys who, if selected, will probably end up displacing some American worker making 80k.

blah_blah fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Mar 3, 2017

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

blah_blah posted:

Yes. I think that you overestimate the willingness of companies to overpay solely for the purposes of getting visas as well as the composition of the absolute highest paid positions. They primarily aren't, and won't be, software engineers or tech workers. They will be executives, doctors, people working in finance, etc (feel free to verify this using http://h1bdata.info/ or any similar site). Visas are primarily allocated to generate economic value and attract top-notch talent and compensation is an efficient proxy for that.

You're correct, under your proposal there will be no software engineers or tech workers getting h-1bs. Different visas have different goals, and the goals of the h-1b visas, which aren't for immigrant or permanent employees, are not the same as those intended to attract "top-notch talent". While they are intended to have indirect positive economic effects, they aren't meant to guarantee those benefits to the companies or groups that can afford to outbid all the others.

The answer to the problems of displacement, fraud and abuse don't have to do with replacing the lottery system. You're choosing the single worst part of the entire apparatus to target. There are existing labor protection provisions on the visa program, the problem is they aren't enforced strongly enough.

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LeJackal
Apr 5, 2011
All this H-1B chat is built on the false notion pushed by these companies that there is some kind of labor shortage.

There is a shortage of companies willing to pay a fair wage, though, and this system allows them to suppress labor costs. Deport all the H-1Bs, then tear apart every company that abused the system.

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