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Party Boat
Nov 1, 2007

where did that other dog come from

who is he


Baron Corbyn posted:

It's not loading for me. I think a lot of people are doing that right now.

code:
Probability of possible outcomes:

Conservative majority	
	76%
Con choice of Lib/Nat	
	6%
Con/Nat coalition	
	6%
Labour majority	
	5%
Nat choice of Con/Lab	
	2%
Lab/Nat coalition	
	2%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat	
	1%
No overall control	
	1%

Their "poll of polls" in March predicted a 112 conservative majority iirc

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ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
Labour members are not reflective of Labour voters; that's been true since the 1950s, although its impact on the policies of the party ebbs to and fro

Corbyn aside, if it were reflective of the voters, the party would be a heck lot more racist and sexist, since that's the British electorate at large

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

Namtab posted:

Ultimately regardless of what you think of Corbyn it's an outrage that Labour mps have the level of contempt for the party membership that they do.

Labour MPs are more in tune with labour voters than the party membership.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Namtab posted:

Ultimately regardless of what you think of Corbyn it's an outrage that Labour mps have the level of contempt for the party membership that they do.

It turns out grassroots democracy and career politicians who haven't talked to a constituent outside of PR events in decades don't mix, and grassroots democracy with grassroots leadership doesn't work without a powerful civil service to prop it up Yes Minister-style.

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

Oh good God.

Does this man's destructive arrogance no know bounds at all?

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

blowfish posted:

It turns out grassroots democracy and career politicians who haven't talked to a constituent outside of PR events in decades don't mix, and grassroots democracy with grassroots leadership doesn't work without a powerful civil service to prop it up Yes Minister-style.

'Grassroots' is horseshit.

Carecat
Apr 27, 2004

Buglord
So is it due to Tory infighting/not a big enough majority? I'd expect them to wait longer to do a pre-Brexit election and get the boundary changes in. They'd want to get it in before the political and economic reality of Brexit further hits voters and Labour is unfortunately not going to be in a better position any time soon.

Macarius Wrench
Mar 28, 2017

by Lowtax
I was brought up to hate the tories with the feverence that Celtic supporters hate Rangers supporters.

This is all very confusing and I wish someone would give me the cliff notes on wether this election is a good or bad thing

Skinty McEdger
Mar 9, 2008

I have NEVER received the respect I deserve as the leader and founder of The Masterflock, the internet's largest and oldest Christopher Masterpiece fan group in all of history, and I DEMAND that changes. From now on, you will respect Skinty McEdger!

I'm just waiting to hear that Farage to announce he's going to stand again to make my day somehow even worse

Noxville
Dec 7, 2003

hakimashou posted:

Oh good God.

Does this man's destructive arrogance no know bounds at all?

It probably means he's not stupid enough to talk about losing an election before it happens.

Prince John
Jun 20, 2006

Oh, poppycock! Female bandits?

hakimashou posted:

Oh good God.

Does this man's destructive arrogance no know bounds at all?

No party leader would ever answer in the affirmative to this question ahead of a general election, because it would be seen as defeatist. Put the question to May, or Farron, or Sturgeon and see what their answer is.

If it's a wipeout, I'm expecting him to stand down later in the year once the leadership rules have been changed.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

hakimashou posted:

You think Jeremy Corbyn is going to get a majority of seats in parliament and be able to ignore the tories and just run the country the way he wants?

Well in a hypothetical situation where Labour career politicians didn't suck, the press didn't suck, Corbyn's public engagement skills were less mediocre, and he got a majority (or Libdem coalition, with some concessions to the main thing Libdems stand for, i.e. token ministerial posts for Libdem politicians).

RideTheSpiral
Sep 18, 2005
College Slice

Pissflaps posted:

Labour MPs are more in tune with labour voters than the party membership.

MPs are almost uniformly moronic useless wastes of space. it's the members who have to walk the streets convincing the mentally handicapped and politically illiterate electorate who to vote for.

Now that tribalism is gone and the working classes think they understand politics because they read a Facebook article we have no chance.

MPs lol

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

Carecat posted:

So is it due to Tory infighting/not a big enough majority? I'd expect them to wait longer to do a pre-Brexit election and get the boundary changes in. They'd want to get it in before the political and economic reality of Brexit further hits voters and Labour is unfortunately not going to be in a better position any time soon.

The timing seems to coincide with Corbyn driving Labour into record low polling.

Skinty McEdger
Mar 9, 2008

I have NEVER received the respect I deserve as the leader and founder of The Masterflock, the internet's largest and oldest Christopher Masterpiece fan group in all of history, and I DEMAND that changes. From now on, you will respect Skinty McEdger!

Carecat posted:

So is it due to Tory infighting/not a big enough majority? I'd expect them to wait longer to do a pre-Brexit election and get the boundary changes in. They'd want to get it in before the political and economic reality of Brexit further hits voters and Labour is unfortunately not going to be in a better position any time soon.

There's no Tory infighting. It's to kill off the opposition, mostly in the house of Lords where they can do harm.

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer

Carecat posted:

So is it due to Tory infighting/not a big enough majority? I'd expect them to wait longer to do a pre-Brexit election and get the boundary changes in. They'd want to get it in before the political and economic reality of Brexit further hits voters and Labour is unfortunately not going to be in a better position any time soon.

its labour being poo poo and the tories are facing lots of by-elections

Jippa
Feb 13, 2009
https://twitter.com/CliveTyldesley/status/854288902278008834

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Prince John posted:

No party leader would ever answer in the affirmative to this question ahead of a general election, because it would be seen as defeatist.

Not to mention it becomes a referendum on them. See how the Italian referendum flipped overnight from "Yes" to "No" once Renzi said if he lost the referendum then he'd resign.

Gonzo McFee
Jun 19, 2010
Think the only real hope we've got is that May does so poorly in any televised debate that even the papers can't cover for her. Which isn't impossible considering how terrible May is at public speaking and how Corbyn did in Labour leadership elections.

But it's probably up there with hoping that a snowball lasts long enough in Hell to win the lottery the same day it got struck by lightning twice in the same spot.

Still, nobody expected Trump or Brexit to actually happen so who knows.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

RideTheSpiral posted:

MPs are almost uniformly moronic useless wastes of space. it's the members who have to walk the streets convincing the mentally handicapped and politically illiterate electorate who to vote for.

Now that tribalism is gone and the working classes think they understand politics because they read a Facebook article we have no chance.

MPs lol

...are you a labour member and campaigner yourself ?

radmonger
Jun 6, 2011

hakimashou posted:

You think Jeremy Corbyn is going to get a majority of seats in parliament and be able to ignore the tories and just run the country the way he wants?

If he can't do that, then what is the point of him?

Corbyn no doubt sucks for many reasons, but there is one thing he has a solid track record of; winning elections. He quite likely has won more consecutive elections than any other prominent figure in British politics. The bookies give him a 5% chance of wining this one; 20/1 chances come in all the time.

RideTheSpiral
Sep 18, 2005
College Slice

Pissflaps posted:

...are you a labour member and campaigner yourself ?

Yes

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

radmonger posted:

If he can't do that, then what is the point of him?

Corbyn no doubt sucks for many reasons, but there is one thing he has a solid track record of; winning elections. He quite likely has won more consecutive elections than any other prominent figure in British politics. The bookies give him a 5% chance of wining this one; 20/1 chances come in all the time.

Jesus Christ.

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

Tesseraction posted:

Not to mention it becomes a referendum on them. See how the Italian referendum flipped overnight from "Yes" to "No" once Renzi said if he lost the referendum then he'd resign.

I suppose if they knew it would get rid of him, responsible Labour voters might vote Tory or stay at home.

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

Carecat posted:

So is it due to Tory infighting/not a big enough majority? I'd expect them to wait longer to do a pre-Brexit election and get the boundary changes in. They'd want to get it in before the political and economic reality of Brexit further hits voters and Labour is unfortunately not going to be in a better position any time soon.

Almost certainly due to the fact that they were going to have to contest 20-30 seats in by-elections due to the election expenses scandal that they would almost certainly lose to the Lib Dems, so decided to attempt to take some seats off of Labour as well.

It's a huge risk for the Tories since polling is so unreliable at the moment and voters around the world are decidedly not doing what they are supposed to. Notably the Liberals in Australia tried the exact same gambit due to winning the previous election with a slim majority and ended up losing seats.

Namtab
Feb 22, 2010

Pissflaps posted:

Labour MPs are more in tune with labour voters than the party membership.

I'm a Labour voter and I disagree

Lord of the Llamas
Jul 9, 2002

EULER'VE TO SEE IT VENN SOMEONE CALLS IT THE WRONG THING AND PROVOKES MY WRATH

Gonzo McFee posted:

Think the only real hope we've got is that May does so poorly in any televised debate that even the papers can't cover for her. Which isn't impossible considering how terrible May is at public speaking and how Corbyn did in Labour leadership elections.

But it's probably up there with hoping that a snowball lasts long enough in Hell to win the lottery the same day it got struck by lightning twice in the same spot.

Still, nobody expected Trump or Brexit to actually happen so who knows.

Very little chance of there being any TV debates.

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

RideTheSpiral posted:

*lives a hovel in middlesbrough*

RideTheSpiral posted:

it's the members who have to walk the streets convincing the mentally handicapped and politically illiterate electorate who to vote for. L

Lol labour is utterly hosed.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
I think Theresa May should be sent to The Hague on charges of crimes against goodposting for setting off Pissflaps and bargain basement pissflaps like this.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Pissflaps posted:

'Grassroots' is horseshit.

Well my point was more you need to decide whether you want politicians that are ~true men of the people~ but need baby wheels civil service handlers to keep them from unintentionally breaking everything, or politicians that are competent politicians but may intentionally break everything.

suck my woke dick fucked around with this message at 12:45 on Apr 18, 2017

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel

radmonger posted:

If he can't do that, then what is the point of him?

Corbyn no doubt sucks for many reasons, but there is one thing he has a solid track record of; winning elections. He quite likely has won more consecutive elections than any other prominent figure in British politics. The bookies give him a 5% chance of wining this one; 20/1 chances come in all the time.

A lot of people have wondered what the point of him is since at least the summer of last year. No one has been able to give a good answer.

He will probably win his own election and get to keep his seat in parliament though.

Crashbee
May 15, 2007

Stupid people are great at winning arguments, because they're too stupid to realize they've lost.

Gonzo McFee posted:

Think the only real hope we've got is that May does so poorly in any televised debate that even the papers can't cover for her. Which isn't impossible considering how terrible May is at public speaking and how Corbyn did in Labour leadership elections.

If May does poorly or Corbyn does well then the papers just won't cover any debates at all.

RideTheSpiral
Sep 18, 2005
College Slice

Pissflaps posted:

Lol labour is utterly hosed.

agreed

Namtab
Feb 22, 2010

Gonzo McFee posted:

Think the only real hope we've got is that May does so poorly in any televised debate that even the papers can't cover for her. Which isn't impossible considering how terrible May is at public speaking and how Corbyn did in Labour leadership elections.

But it's probably up there with hoping that a snowball lasts long enough in Hell to win the lottery the same day it got struck by lightning twice in the same spot.

Still, nobody expected Trump or Brexit to actually happen so who knows.

Given the short notice given I doubt there'll be much in the way of televised debates

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

You must be so proud of yourself.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

Prince John posted:

No party leader would ever answer in the affirmative to this question ahead of a general election, because it would be seen as defeatist. Put the question to May, or Farron, or Sturgeon and see what their answer is.

If it's a wipeout, I'm expecting him to stand down later in the year once the leadership rules have been changed.

yup. I mean, haka is trolling. but yup.

some manuevering to give a Momentum faction candidate a good run at it, then resignation. Maybe not this year but soon so that the new candidate has some time to get to grips

quite aside from any politics the man is 67yo, five more years is a bit dodgy. campaigning is exhausting work even for an energetic politician in their 40s

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

blowfish posted:

Well my point was more you need to decide whether you want politicians that are representative of the electorate and need need baby wheels civil service handlers to keep them from unintentionally breaking everything, or politicians that are competent politicians but may intentionally break everything.

The problem is that we have neither right now we have a political class that has spent the past 30 years enriching themselves and keeping themselves in power at the expense of providing meaningful change to the electorate. Hence why voters are flocking to anything that isn't the status quo.

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

radmonger posted:

If he can't do that, then what is the point of him?

Corbyn no doubt sucks for many reasons, but there is one thing he has a solid track record of; winning elections. He quite likely has won more consecutive elections than any other prominent figure in British politics. The bookies give him a 5% chance of wining this one; 20/1 chances come in all the time.

jfc this is actually stupider than pissflapsposting

be ashamed

hakimashou
Jul 15, 2002
Upset Trowel
If I were May I wouldn't do a TV debate. Let him debate that little lib dem gnome or tell Nicola Sturgeon how Scotland has to go down with the ship. Just say everyone knows where she stands, and everyone knows where he stands, and she's got a country to run. Best case he'd whine about not getting a debate.

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Carecat
Apr 27, 2004

Buglord

Skinty McEdger posted:

There's no Tory infighting. It's to kill off the opposition, mostly in the house of Lords where they can do harm.

Really? Isn't that where May came from? And not just the surface level Boris/Gove backstab or Cameron promising a referendum, there was a behind the scenes push to get May.

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