Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Istvun
Apr 20, 2007


A better world is just $69.69 away.

Soiled Meat

Vox Nihili posted:

Down to 50.8%. Hope train is about to leave the station.

It went up to 51% so everything is now perfect forever.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
DDHQ guy just said it's now at 50.1%. will probably finish at around 47%.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Fresh new talking point:

Jeff B/DDHQ‏ @EsotericCD

Ossoff still looking like he has a very good chance of beating Hillary Clinton's number (46.8%) in GA-6. Sets up a huge runoff battle.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Up to 50.7% w/ friendly DeKalb County now 100% tapped out, only downhill from here. Join me, in prayer.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
i'm sorry to tell you that not only was the hope train not in the station, but the station hasn't existed for over a year

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
We pray for the votes to get this skinny, effeminate, centrist wonk into office. We ask you sincerely and unironically for miraculous succor, and we dare to believe because we are miraculous suckers. Amen *click*

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
50.4% with the dark & evil (corn)Cobb County 96% in.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
I'm not owned I'm not owned I continue to insist as the margin slowly shrinks due to Cobb County

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
vote totals on a cob

Venuz Patrol
Mar 27, 2011
haha. cobbed county

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k

new phone who dis posted:

Are you going to put one word on each cheek or strategically place the O in Nothing on your rear end in a top hat?

I like the way you think

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
38mAlexis Levinson‏ @alexis_levinson

but Ossoff's election night party is legit a bar mitzvah with a cash bar. Ppl are dancing, smiling, hugging. #GA06

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
Dude is even younger than he looks lol

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Vox Nihili posted:

DDHQ guy just said it's now at 50.1%. will probably finish at around 47%.

sounds right.

I think people are being too negative about the runoff though. The number two is at fuckin 18 something. If Trump tries to tie himself to her it could be a genuine issue with a county that is very much the traditional republican crowd. They won't flip, but they may just fuckin stay home. If we can keep our base energized this isn't some death sentence.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

sexpig by night posted:

sounds right.

I think people are being too negative about the runoff though. The number two is at fuckin 18 something. If Trump tries to tie himself to her it could be a genuine issue with a county that is very much the traditional republican crowd. They won't flip, but they may just fuckin stay home. If we can keep our base energized this isn't some death sentence.

Well you can basically add up all the GOP numbers and Dem numbers and get a near-wash. Final number tonight will mean a lot, it's going to be a game of inches in the run-off.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Vox Nihili posted:

Well you can basically add up all the GOP numbers and Dem numbers and get a near-wash. Final number tonight will mean a lot, it's going to be a game of inches in the run-off.

Oh yea it's gonna be tight and drive us all to stress drink as usual, just saying it's less a 'well gently caress way to botch it' and more 'yep, we're getting the tight race we expected, PLEASE don't gently caress this up dems'

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Fulton County has yet to be completely counted, and it has Atlanta in it. I remain hopeful.

He's still at 50%.

HorseRenoir
Dec 25, 2011



Pillbug
It's going to settle at 48% which is fine and more than I expected in the first place. Done know why everyone is so convinced that a runoff would be a death sentence for Ossoff, Handel is a weak candidate and Ossoff is consistently polling tied or slightly above her in a runoff. His winning margin wouldn't be huge, but he has a really good shot at winning a runoff

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

HorseRenoir posted:

It's going to settle at 48% which is fine and more than I expected in the first place. Done know why everyone is so convinced that a runoff would be a death sentence for Ossoff, Handel is a weak candidate and Ossoff is consistently polling tied or slightly above her in a runoff. His winning margin wouldn't be huge, but he has a really good shot at winning a runoff

the biggest problem most seem to have (that isn't just generic doomsaying) is that they're not wild about being in a situation where they kinda need to rely more on depressed opposition than anything else. If the magical ~uniting the party~ does happen and the republicans show up in good numbers he's hosed, but if Handel is too toxic to be rallied behind (lol I was reminded she's the breast cancer scam lunatic) Ossoff just needs to keep his supporters amped up and ready.

You never WANT to be in a situation where your best shot is if the other guy fucks up, basically, but yea it's very much a winnable race for him barring something nuts.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008
"Cobb is done. Ossoff at 50.3% with 55k in Fulton County left. Our guess he gets 45%; needs 49. Seems small, but very hard."

get that OUT of my face
Feb 10, 2007

cobb county took the braves and now they're taking away hope

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Vox Nihili posted:

Seems small, but very hard."

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
ossoff will miss the runoff by exactly 1 vote, which he could have cast had he lived in ga-06

Agean90
Jun 28, 2008


im the "delete all votes" card lol

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Agean90 posted:

im the "delete all votes" card lol

powerful card to keep in your deck, really shows this player was ready for some clutch situations, even if they're not common.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
48.6 ossoff

Gringostar
Nov 12, 2016
Morbid Hound

Gringostar posted:

get ready to have your hopes and dreams crushed yet again

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
basically turnout on election day was far too high for ossoff's substantial early vote lead to withstand. he would have been looking for 150, it's gonna be like 185-190. a giant pile of lazy republicans reluctantly went to the polls

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth
not a bad place to be in going into the runoff though. Bummed he couldn't just win it, but he still has odds of taking the runoff and that was the normal expectation for him to be at right now anyway.

Venuz Patrol
Mar 27, 2011
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/854546980281962497

haha

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
+1 in newt and price's district, nice

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
Vikes that high turnout was a killer. People really do worship Trump. He is orange Jesus to them.

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

Concerned Citizen posted:

ossoff will miss the runoff by exactly 1 vote, which he could have cast had he lived in ga-06
i want to take credit for singlehandedly causing the runoff but unfortunately i cannot

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

Elephanthead posted:

Vikes that high turnout was a killer. People really do worship Trump. He is orange Jesus to them.
this must be why perez and other dems were saying they didnt support the kansas special election because they were worrying about "nationalizing" the race
:sad:

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

comedyblissoption posted:

this must be why perez and other dems were saying they didnt support the kansas special election because they were worrying about "nationalizing" the race
:sad:

comedyblissoption posted:

i want to take credit for singlehandedly causing the runoff but unfortunately i cannot

:laffo:

The Dems collectively got 49+% of the vote in a race in Newt loving Gingrich's old district and the winning Republican couldn't even muster a quarter of the total vote.

We're going to win the runoff.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Elephanthead posted:

Vikes that high turnout was a killer. People really do worship Trump. He is orange Jesus to them.

I think the high turnout appears more likely to have benefited Ossoff than the other way around.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/5-takeaways-from-the-georgia-6-special-election-results/

Harry Enten posted:

There’s some chatter out there that Ossoff’s showing is a bad sign for Democrats. He didn’t clear 50 percent, they say, and he barely improved on Clinton’s performance in Georgia 6.

I think that’s a flawed argument.

For one, Clinton had already greatly improved on previous Democrats’ performance in Georgia 6. She lost to Trump there by only 1.5 percentage points. Former President Barack Obama lost the district by 23 points in 2012, as did Democratic congressional candidate Rodney Stooksbury in 2016.

So if you’re just looking at the 2016 presidential result as your benchmark you’re probably missing something. Instead, our best estimate of the partisan lean of a district is to take a weighted average2 of its past two presidential election results. By that measure, a Democrat would be expected to lose Georgia 6 by 9.5 percentage points in a neutral national environment (one in which the two parties fought to a tie nationally). Democrats did far better than that on Tuesday, losing by 2 points. The Democratic candidates combined took 49 percent to the Republicans’ 51 percent.

Agean90
Jun 28, 2008


the fact that the democrats are putting ANY effort into a southern state should be endlessly praised so they keep loving doing it. You think the turnout last night was a good showing? Now imagine how it would have been if the democrats had been pushing in that region over the course of the last decade.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006
Also I did the math and Ossoff needs 3,653 more votes to win outright. The other Dems got 1,521 votes so he's already close to halfway there.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Agean90
Jun 28, 2008


axeil posted:

Also I did the math and Ossoff needs 3,653 more votes to win outright. The other Dems got 1,521 votes so he's already close to halfway there.

alternately he only needs that many repubs to not turn out. The election can go either way.

  • Locked thread