Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

blah_blah posted:

Most. Capital gains exemptions (by far the biggest benefit in practice) and smaller benefits like property tax reductions/deferrals go to owners regardless of mortgage status. Mortgage holders have only really significantly benefitted from artificially low interest rates in the last decade or so (and even that relative benefit is questionable because ZIRP has been a tremendous boon to savers/investors as well).

Hmm, ok. I guess I'll just donate the equivalent to the exempted taxes when I sell and call it a day.

(Not that there will be gains, because I'll be forced to unload it for pennies on the dollar when others around me start selling theirs, or something.)

# ? Jun 17, 2017 21:04

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# ? May 15, 2024 11:26

leftist heap: Feb 28, 2013; Fun Shoe

Subjunctive posted:

I didn't really think about this before I bought, and now I feel a bit guilty. How much of the transfers go to owners vs mortgage-holders, would you say?

I haven't seen anything that tries to account for this mix, but mortgage holders have a huge number of advantages. The CHMC alone is a huge boon to them, not just in mortgage insurance but also in mortgage backed securities. Remember the articles about bankers freaking out at the possibility of deductibles on mortgage insurance? Good times.

Then there are non-financial benefits such as the obvious and extremely lax regulatory and enforcement framework they are allowed to operate within. Even basic investigative journalism uncovers startling examples of fraud in the mortgage industry, god knows what actual enforcement would find.

The whole system is filled in all its nooks and crannies with a perverse bevy of subsidies and incentives. It's awful. Neoliberalism at its best.

# ? Jun 17, 2017 22:18

Jordan7hm: Feb 17, 2011; Lipstick Apathy

UnfortunateSexFart posted:

Do you think it's insane to want a bedroom for your child? Two bedroom condos start at $700k now.

I think it's insane to assume you need to own a home, rather than just rent, to have kids.

# ? Jun 17, 2017 23:57

leftist heap: Feb 28, 2013; Fun Shoe

Jordan7hm posted:

I think it's insane to assume you need to own a home, rather than just rent, to have kids.

Rental stock is awful for families and renter protections across the country are a joke. It's the conditions that are insane, not the people just looking for reasonable shelter for their families.

# ? Jun 18, 2017 00:39

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

I grew up in rental houses, getting renovicted or otherwise forced out every couple of years, giving beloved pets to friends so we could find a place, landlords not repairing broken windows or weather stripping or basic insulation. I'm sure some of it was fightable, but my single mother didn't really have the luxury of protracted legal battles. I changed schools a few times because we couldn't keep renting in the same catchment.

Renting can be bullshit with a family.

# ? Jun 18, 2017 00:51

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Jordan7hm posted:

I think it's insane to assume you need to own a home, rather than just rent, to have kids.

Why is this insane? There's zero security of tenure; in BC at least, you're perpetually two months away from your landlord deciding he wants Aunt Hilda to live there and not you. Were that to change, I think you'd find many families would be quite content to rent indefinitely.

# ? Jun 18, 2017 00:53

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

cowofwar posted:

For rent: single asian ESL student females only

ftfy

# ? Jun 18, 2017 01:20

Precambrian Video Games: Aug 19, 2002

leftist heap posted:

Rental stock is awful for families and renter protections across the country are a joke.

Ontario's are not that bad. Much better than B.C. at least. If Quebec is also reasonable then that's already over half of the country.

I grew up in Toronto in rented apartments/townhouses and it was fine. The places we lived in are all much more expensive now but then so are equivalent houses so...

# ? Jun 18, 2017 02:24

Jimbozig: Sep 30, 2003; I like sharing and ice cream and animals.

Jordan7hm posted:

I think it's insane to assume you need to own a home, rather than just rent, to have kids.

Trying to find a 3-br rental is about 100 times harder than trying to find a 2-br in Toronto.

# ? Jun 18, 2017 02:35

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

a fitting abode for the underclass of society. suck it rental dalits

# ? Jun 18, 2017 02:37

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

studies have shown you can't build strong stable communities of renters so

# ? Jun 18, 2017 02:38

Postess with the Mostest: Apr 4, 2007; Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

Jordan7hm posted:

I think it's insane to assume you need to own a home, rather than just rent, to have kids.

If you're going to destroy your life following your biological instincts to have kids, you need to embrace the nesting aspect as well. Also, drive a bigger pickup truck than your neighbour and catch bigger fish.

# ? Jun 18, 2017 02:42

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Postess with the Mostest posted:

If you're going to destroy your life following your biological instincts to have kids, you need to embrace the nesting aspect as well. Also, drive a bigger pickup truck than your neighbour and catch bigger fish.

what is canadian life if not an obligation to engage in ostentatious catharsis

# ? Jun 18, 2017 02:46

Professor Shark: May 22, 2012

mojo1701a posted:

I've recognized the names of a few real estate agents in my area as being people I went to high school with. No surprise none of them were overachievers in any sense. One or two were outright idiots.

Like I mentioned before, while visiting my hometown I saw that two people who were drug dealers and heavy drug users in high school are now Real Estate agents.

# ? Jun 19, 2017 13:02

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

Bad behaviour in high school?!? Clearly people of weak character and middling capability.

# ? Jun 19, 2017 13:34

quaint bucket: Nov 29, 2007

Lexicon posted:

Why is this insane? There's zero security of tenure; in BC at least, you're perpetually two months away from your landlord deciding he wants Aunt Hilda to live there and not you. Were that to change, I think you'd find many families would be quite content to rent indefinitely.

This is true and we have attempted 3 times to rent before we finally said "gently caress it" and bought a place where our mortgage payments were less than our rental cost and socked away our money for repairs and maintenance that needs to be done.

Uprooting the kids multiple times at the whim of lovely amateur bottom dollars landlords isn't worth it.

# ? Jun 19, 2017 13:46

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

Professor Shark posted:

Like I mentioned before, while visiting my hometown I saw that two people who were drug dealers and heavy drug users in high school are now Real Estate agents.

Can confirm, drug dealers end up real estate agents from my own experience as well.

# ? Jun 19, 2017 15:24

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

But isn't this just a sign that the economy is working? If we didn't have a housing bubble these drug dealers would be doing what instead?

# ? Jun 19, 2017 15:31

Jordan7hm: Feb 17, 2011; Lipstick Apathy

The 3 drug dealers from my high school class become... waiter who eventually did HVAC, teacher, and lawyer.

# ? Jun 19, 2017 15:39

mojo1701a: Oct 9, 2008; Oh, yeah. Loud and clear. Emphasis on LOUD!
~ David Lee Roth

Professor Shark posted:

Like I mentioned before, while visiting my hometown I saw that two people who were drug dealers and heavy drug users in high school are now Real Estate agents.

I actually just had a client come in to sign her tax papers that's a real estate agent (like, doing it for years pre-bubble) who told me that there's a glut of agents these days and she's just amazed at the people that "make it".

# ? Jun 19, 2017 17:02

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/rep...rticle35352212/

quote:

State of play

Some economic assumptions are turning on a dime.

We�ve known for some time that Canada�s economy is powering ahead, this year, at least. But there has been a marked shift over the past few days, notably where interest rates, the loonie and bubbly housing markets are concerned.

As The Globe and Mail�s Barrie McKenna reports, the Bank of Canada suddenly changed its tone last week, pointing to a sooner-than-expected bump in rates, first in a speech by senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins and then in a media interview with Governor Stephen Poloz.

Their comments drove the Canadian dollar higher and prompted observers to change their outlook on the timing of the first increase in the central bank�s benchmark overnight rate, which now sits at 0.5 per cent.

�Clearly this is no longer an economy that requires emergency-level interest rates,� said Toronto-Dominion Bank senior economist Brian DePratto, noting that growth has averaged 3.5 per cent over the past three quarters.

Here�s a look at the state of play:

Economic growth spurt

�The Canadian economy started 2017 with a bang,� TD�s economics department said in a recent forecast, raising its projection for growth this year to 2.8 per cent from its earlier call of 2.3 per cent.

�This would mark the fastest pace since 2011, and place Canada at the top of the leaderboard among the G7 countries,� the TD team said.

�Importantly, 2017 is also expected to mark the first year since 2014 that all major sectors of the economy contribute positively to economic growth. All signs suggest that remaining economic slack will be absorbed by mid-year, and, as such, inflationary pressures are likely nascent.�

https://imgur.com/7S4xcsB

Next year is one of uncertainty at this point, given an expected cooling of the housing market and renegotiation of the North American free-trade agreement. But, hey, that�s next year.

Royal Bank of Canada, in turn, expects economic growth of 2.6 per cent, not far off TD�s call (and who wants to quibble over 0.2 of a percentage point anyway).

�Business investment provided the biggest lift to growth since 2012,� RBC�s economics team said.

�The swing in investment is encouraging following two years of significant declines reflecting a marked drop in investment by energy companies.�

That�s a big turnaround from the oil shock.

Then there�s the relative strength of the jobs market.

�Canada has experienced strong growth of late � alongside aggregate job growth of 316,800 in the past 12 months, 220,900 of which has come in the full-time category,� said Mark Chandler, head of Canadian fixed income and currency strategy at RBC Dominion Securities.

�The output and employment strength is tied fairly strongly to housing activity and an abrupt turnaround could threaten these gains,� he added.

�However, at the least it looks like the BoC�s assumption of the output gap being closed �in the first half of 2018� is on track, with the timeframe likely inching closer towards the turn of the year as they prepare their revised forecasts for the July 12 [monetary policy report].�

Interest rates

�So we have a bank that is finally admitting that rates in Canada are too low,� said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets.

He was referring to last week�s comments by Ms. Wilkins, which have prompted some observers to now expect a first rate increase as early as October.

Some observers believe that increase will come in January, while others are waiting to see what Mr. Poloz, Ms. Wilkins and their colleagues have to say on July 12.

Carolyn Wilkins
TD Securities, for one, has revised its projections, now expecting a rate hike of one-quarter of a percentage point in October, rather than than next April, as had been its call.

That would be followed by two similar increases in April and October, 2018, TD chief Canada macro strategist Fred Demers and his research colleagues said in a report.

�There are a couple of reasons for this initial slow pace,� they said, adding that the central bank will closely monitor how consumer spending and housing react.

�Macro imbalances are an increasing source of concern, and increases in the overnight rate � and any associated increase in mortgage rates � will have immediate effects on household balance sheets,� they added.

�The bank will therefore likely favour a slow pace of hikes in order to keep a close watch on the impact higher rates are having on consumers.�

BMO Nesbitt Burns expects a January rate increase, though October is a possibility and, like others, it wants to see what the central bank says next month.

�Indeed, given the way the bank surprised the market with a rate cut in January, 2015, and given [last] week�s messaging (which we suspect the bank would argue is an adequate alert), one can�t rule out a rate hike next month,� said deputy chief economist Michael Gregory.

�However, even Wilkins� speech laid out reasons for continued policy caution.�

the canadian economy is heating up, causing the BoC to think about raising rates sooner rather than later, but by turning up rates it might tank the housing industry which is driving all that growth in the first place

lmao

just fuckijng do it. burn this loving country to the ground.

# ? Jun 19, 2017 17:52

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.theprovince.com/News/13456427/story.html

quote:

Regulator tracks rise in mortgage fraud complaints in B.C. as house prices jump

A review of B.C. regulatory filings points to a growing number of mortgage fraud cases involving fake incomes, phoney offshore collateral, and false tax information in schemes allegedly connected to real estate professionals operating in B.C.�s growing shadow banking sector.

Postmedia reported Saturday that shadow lenders � non-banks that are not federally regulated � have rapidly increased their share of Canada�s mortgage market in recent years, as Ottawa has tightened lending standards for Canadian banks. Many of the big loans issued in Vancouver prior to 2017 won�t be insured again, a Bank of Canada risk report says. As a result, according to a number of experts, an increasing number of borrowers are turning to shadow banks for loans in Vancouver�s hot market, and the private lenders in this growing sector are more prone to fraud and careless lending.

Chris Carter, B.C. registrar of mortgage brokers at B.C.�s Financial Institutions Commission, or Ficom, said the agency is experiencing an increase in mortgage fraud complaints, and �recently recruited dedicated staff to implement a more ambitious program of risk-based examinations.�

Ficom�s stats show complaints roughly doubled from 109 in 2013 to about 200 in 2016, and about a third of complaints allege loan application fraud.

Canadian housing analysts Hilliard MacBeth, Ben Rabidoux and Vancouver short-seller David LePoidevin say mortgage fraud cases they are seeing in B.C. are similar to the dodgy loans that were exposed after the U.S. subprime meltdown of 2008. All three analysts said they expect B.C.�s fraud problems will be exposed when prices correct and the real estate collateral that backs loans is reduced in value, which could trigger a domino-like drop in the market.

�I�m selling my home in West Vancouver,� LePoidevin said. �I think we could see a disaster in B.C.�

A number of cases reviewed in Postmedia�s investigation illustrate the creative documentation and methods that some borrowers and brokers appear to be using to get home loans in Metro Vancouver.

In a March 2017 notice of hearing, Ficom alleges that a sub-mortgage broker from Surrey named Dennis Rego, of the company Shank Capital Systems, provided fabricated home purchase and sale contracts, and faked income and offshore collateral information, for numerous mortgage applications made for several closely related borrowers. The borrowers included two families who were seeking financing for three multi-million-dollar homes in Vancouver�s South Granville area.

Since about 2010, this area of Vancouver has become synonymous with speculation and offshore investment, veteran realtors say.

For one of the borrowers, Ficom alleges, Rego submitted at least seven misleading mortgage applications. At first, the unidentified borrower was reported to be a �cook� with a $50,000 annual income and Canadian savings of $85,000. Next, the borrower was said to be a mechanical engineer, then an �assistant chef.� In yet another application, the borrower was reported to be a �real estate investor� who had Canadian savings of $800,000, foreign savings of $500,000, and offshore real estate investments worth $5 million. Finally, the borrower was reported to be the part-owner of a related borrower�s company, and reportedly possessed �foreign liquid assets� worth $400,000, and offshore real estate worth $1.5 million.

Rego�s company is now closed, a number he was listed at is out of service, and he could not be reached. None of the allegations has been proven and no defence has been called yet.

In another Ficom notice of hearing, posted in March, staff accused sub-mortgage broker Anil Kumar Singh of submitting false financial information for at least six different borrowers, including a self-employed nail salon worker, a personal maid, a self-employed construction worker, a fish filleter, and a self-employed landscaper. Singh failed to confirm the accuracy of documents for another 22 mortgage applications, and submitted altered Canada Revenue Agency documents, according to the Ficom allegations.

In an interview with Postmedia, Singh said he strongly denies the allegations, and that he believes fraud is widespread in B.C.�s mortgage lending industry because brokers are poorly trained to verify loan application information, and speculative buyers are gaming the system.

�The market in the Lower Mainland is like a wildfire, because people are borrowing in a huge way,� said Singh. �And foreign buyers have impacted the market, because of the loopholes in the lending system. How can people buy a $2.5-million home when they have hardly any income?�

Singh said that Ficom is unfairly cracking down on him because of a half-dozen erroneous notice of tax assessment documents that he believes borrowers submitted to him, knowing they were false, when he was an inexperienced broker.

�I don�t want to hide anything because I�m not guilty. The training for mortgage brokers is almost zero,� Singh said. �It is the clients that are doing wrong, because they don�t have any fear. I think it is a big gang operating in the market.�

Singh believes lenders are often complicit in accepting fraudulent loan applications.

�They have well-trained staff. How can they miss all these cases?�

In another case, involving tax documents, an agreed statement of facts in a 2016 Ficom consent order states that while working for Dominion Lending Centres Gold Financial Services, Jorawar Gosal �altered� borrowers� Canada Revenue Agency documents in order to inflate incomes for mortgage applications. Gosal was reached at the phone number listed in an online ad that says he is a real estate agent in Surrey. In a brief call, Gosal said that he is not a real estate agent, and that he has no comment on Ficom�s consent order.

Details of a Ficom cease and desist order, which Ficom filings say was issued without a hearing due to the seriousness of the allegations, indicate Ficom staff investigated Rani Kaur Gill, an unregistered broker. Calls by Postmedia to Gill�s listed number have not been returned.

Gill placed an ad with an unidentified realtor, the investigation showed, which said: �When everyone says �No� call Rani and get your mortgage done.�

Gill�s clients did not speak English, and included new immigrants, first-time home buyers, and those with low income and bad credit, according to the investigation. Ficom employed undercover investigators to do a sting, the order says, and an investigator posed as a property buyer. Ficom alleges that Gill told the undercover investigator that she would falsely tell lenders that he lived in a property that he planned to rent out, and this would get him a better deal with the bank, and save him money on taxes when he sold the property. And if he needed to borrow money to meet a loan�s downpayment requirements, Gill said, �then we make a gift letter. Then we tell them my parents, or whatever, they�re going to give us a gift.�

None of the allegations has been proven and no defence has been called yet.

Other Ficom investigations involve mortgage investment corporations, which are a growing portion of B.C.�s shadow banking market, but are not always visible to Ficom.

�We don�t have statistics on mortgage investment corporations (as) most are not publicly traded,� Carter said. �But we monitor that sector very closely.�

On Friday, the executive director of the B.C. Securities Commission issued a notice of hearing alleging three men and two mortgage investment corporations �committed fraud.�

From 2011 into 2013, respondents Donald Bruce Wilson, David Scott Wright, and Patrick Prinster, �raised approximately $1.1 million from 40 investors,� and told investors their money would be invested �in mortgages secured by real estate,� the notice of hearing alleged. Instead of investing in mortgages, the mortgage investment corporations put �the majority of the investors� money to other companies related to the respondents, business expenses, and commissions to finders,� the notice alleged.

None of the allegations has been proven and no defence has been called yet.

In an April 2017 notice of hearing, Ficom alleged that Dominion Lending Centres submortgage broker Gordon Lemon altered a bank draft, misappropriated investor funds, and was guilty of misconduct in relation to three registered mortgage investment corporations, and one unregistered mortgage investment corporation. Postmedia�s efforts to reach Lemon were not successful. None of the allegations has been proven and no defence has been called yet.

In another Ficom case, an April 2017 notice of hearing alleges that Kevin Bownick of Port Moody failed to answer a summons and either �withheld, destroyed, concealed or refused to produce records� requested by Ficom investigators. Ficom investigators are trying to determine whether Bownick�s company, Como Lake Ventures Ltd., �is carrying on a business of lending money secured in whole or in part by mortgages,� with the proper registrations, or not.

An online ad for Kevin Bownick�s services says that �Kevin specializes in helping to match clients needing private second mortgages with investors willing to fund them � (he) understands how difficult it is sometimes for people to find bank financing.�

The ad says that services of brokers in the company include: �High-ratio Mortgages up to 100% financing on either a purchase or refinance; offshore investor mortgages; rental/investment Mortgages; 2nd mortgages.�

Calls to Bownick at Como Lake Ventures were not returned. None of the allegations has been proven and no defence has been called yet.

In an interview, NDP MLA David Eby said he was concerned by the findings in Postmedia�s investigation. He said he believes Ficom hasn�t kept up with risks from the growth of shadow banking and loan fraud because the B.C. Liberal government understaffed Ficom. He said millions in fees from regulated industries, money that was intended to fund Ficom auditors, was instead put into general provincial revenues by the Ministry of Finance. A new NDP-Green government would make sure these fees go to staffing, Eby said, to �make sure we have sufficient auditors in place at Ficom, to make sure B.C. citizens are protected from a shock related to shoddy lending or fuzzy collateral.�

Eby pointed to the July 2016 report by B.C. auditor general Carol Bellringer, which noted Ficom�s lack of investigators for B.C. credit unions and pointed to understaffing concerns for other regulated entities. Bellringer said Ficom received adequate funding to hire staff via fees from regulated industries but the government did not �green-light� the needed hires.

�It�s like having a smoke detector in your house, but not buying the batteries,� Bellringer said in her report. �No batteries, no early warning system.�

Eby also points to a statement that he received from Ficom head Carolyn Rogers in 2016.

Rogers said the Bellringer report �reflects problems that I have been warning government about for the past three years. A regulator that draws funding from fees paid by the entities it regulates requires the freedom to spend those fees appropriately and for the sole purpose of regulation.�

In response to Eby�s criticism, a spokesperson for Finance Minister Mike de Jong told Postmedia that understaffing at Ficom was limited to staff overseeing credit unions.

�Regulatory staffing at Ficom on the mortgage broker and real estate side has not experienced the retention issues that the financial institutions division has,� a Ministry response says. �And enforcement regarding mortgage broker misconduct continues to be proactive.�

# ? Jun 19, 2017 17:54

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/re...&service=mobile

quote:

Foreign investors ignoring Calgary, Montreal real estate markets

Calgary has a glut of unsold condos, so earlier this year, with a tax on foreign buyers in Vancouver and another looming in Toronto, real estate developer Brad Lamb decided to take a chance on China.

Sales representatives with the Juwai.com Chinese real estate portal had been pestering Mr. Lamb to advertise with them. He posted listings for developments in Calgary and Edmonton to see if he could drum up foreign interest.

�I gotta tell you, it�s been a gigantic waste of time,� said Mr. Lamb, founder of Lamb Development Corp. Mr. Lamb had a long-standing suspicion confirmed that Chinese buyers prefer dealing with Chinese brokers. But on top of that, it reinforced fundamental differences between Canada�s second tier of real estate markets, and Vancouver and Toronto � foreign investors just aren�t that into Calgary. �They�ll have their kick at Montreal and maybe Calgary, but they�ll never be as big as Vancouver or Toronto.�

Real estate watchers have spent months on the lookout for a ripple effect in other parts of Canada from recent attempts to cool overheated real estate price growth in Vancouver and Toronto. Their gaze has often turned to Canada�s other top markets by size, Montreal and Calgary.

Those cities have their attractions: less expensive, direct flights to China and post-secondary schools hospitable to foreign students.

But they have relatively small Asian communities and they are not the lucrative speculative investments Vancouver and Toronto have been. Montreal has the added hurdle of requiring two languages for full engagement in economic and civic life.

Recently in Montreal, some real estate brokers were excited to report foreign buyers were helping move downtown condos and million-dollar homes in Westmount and the West Island � market segments that had long languished.

While the Montreal market is hot for Montreal, so far there is little evidence of a speculative bubble or the kind of influx of foreign buyers that could inflate one.

Prices in Montreal grew by 6 per cent in May compared to the same month last year, and sales volume set a record for the month with 15-per-cent growth.

Paul Cardinal, an economist with the Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards, recently upgraded his 2017 forecast for the city, saying he expects it to be the fourth best year in history.

City council even recently debated incorporating the city�s own foreign buyer�s tax out of fear the city might be next. With long steady growth in real estate and prices two-to-three times lower than Vancouver or Toronto, the measure was shot down by Mayor Denis Coderre, who called Montreal a �distinct market.�

The market, Mr. Cardinal says, is being driven by low interest rates, record-low unemployment and a strong economy. �Local demand from buyers is still the main driving force in the market,� Mr. Cardinal said. �Foreign buyers who buy here tend to want to live here.�

Montreal is in a relatively unique position in Canada because it has data on foreign buyers. Each residential transaction in Quebec is recorded at the provincial land registry with the residency of the purchaser. Quebec market research firm JLR scrapes data from the registry.

In 2016 there was a 60-per-cent increase in foreign purchases in Montreal, according to JLR. While a 60-per-cent hike sounds like a lot, it translates to an increase from 477 sales to 766 � still only 1.3 per cent of the 57,500 residential real estate transactions in Montreal. Numbers through May showed another 44-per-cent increase compared to the same period in 2016, but once again amounts to 352 transactions � a drop in the bucket among the tens of thousands of transactions for the period.

By comparison, foreign buyers are estimated to make up just under 5 per cent of the Toronto market. British Columbia�s government says foreign buyers were 4.2 per cent of the market this spring, down from 15 per cent last summer.

Foreign buyers have a different profile in Montreal than the other major cities, notes JLR economist Joanie Fontaine. American and French buyers still outnumber the Chinese. �The strength of the American dollar remains a significant amplifying factor in Montreal,� she said.

Still, anecdotes abound about Chinese interest.

Yu Li, a Montreal real estate agent who caters to Mandarin and Cantonese-speaking clientele, said million-dollar houses and new high-rise condominiums are attractive to his growing client list, but he said he doesn�t see Asian investors frothing up the Montreal market. Many of his clients are not super-rich and are attracted by what they see as Montreal�s bargain prices.

�I don�t see a bubble forming. It�s going to take quite a few years yet before it becomes a true sellers� market balanced out with buyers,� Mr. Li said.

Mr. Li said he often sells to parents buying condos to house children attending one of the two English-language universities. McGill has had 242-per-cent growth in Chinese students attending the school in five years. Concordia has had a 35-per-cent increase in all foreign students in the same period. That kind of interest has helped chip Montreal�s condo inventory down from 14 months to about nine � a level that still makes it a buyer�s market.

In the wake of the Toronto tax, only Calgary registered a spike in interest. There wasn�t a ripple in Montreal or other Canadian cities.

Calgary realtor Emma May set up a Mandarin website with Chinese partners to target luxury buyers. �We had over a million hits but nothing has translated yet,� she said. �Does it mean it�s not coming? I don�t know.�

Several players and experts in the real estate industry believe the big money will just end up back in Toronto and Vancouver once people adjust to the taxes and new rules. The fundamentals of the market � high demand and low supply � have not changed that much.

�Unlike Vancouver and Toronto, Calgary is able to add housing stock very easily and Montreal has great balance between supply and demand,� said Brad Henderson, president of Sotheby�s International Realty Canada.

�You know, if Vancouver and Toronto weren�t getting all the attention, Montreal would be known as a very healthy market. Words like �stable� and �balanced� don�t grab a lot of attention because they�re boring. But boring is good.�

lol get hosed calgary

# ? Jun 19, 2017 17:57

Aramis: Sep 22, 2009

With Montreal turning into a massive machine learning Hub over the last two years, I fully expect McGill to become the next UBC (urg...)

# ? Jun 19, 2017 18:04

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/06/19/Nine-Real-Estate-Secrets/

quote:

Nine Things the Real Estate Industry Doesn�t Want You to Know
Key takeaways from a six-month Tyee investigation.

You�ve heard it a million times. The reason so few of us can afford Vancouver is because there aren�t enough new homes being built. This is the version of reality that real estate industry leaders and their political allies want us to believe.

But an investigation of the industry by The Tyee has revealed reality to be much more complex. Over the past six months I spoke at length with financial analysts, economists, industry consultants, realtors and many others to learn the true causes of Vancouver�s housing crisis and who is profiting from it. They were in broad agreement that real estate is at the centre of a massive realignment between our society�s rich and poor � and one that few leaders in the industry seem willing to publicly acknowledge. Here are the key takeaways from those conversations.

1. The industry no longer sells homes � it sells investments

Real estate has historically been a local industry. The people who buy and sell a city�s homes tended to live in that city. Yet that all began to change a decade or so ago. And one of the major reasons for it is a big shift in our global financial system. It�s a complicated subject. But what you need to know is that the global capital investors use to invest in things is growing much faster than the actual economy. There is so much capital, investors don�t know what to do with it all. Desperate for quick financial returns, many investors are pouring this capital into real estate, turning local markets into global investment opportunities. One of the results, according to trackers such as Bain & Company, is �skyrocketing home prices.�

2. Wealthy people are profiting from the housing crisis

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The explosion of global capital coincided with an explosion of global wealth. Worldwide, the number of people worth $30 million or more has grown 60 per cent in the last 10 years. These elites have a different relationship to real estate than regular people. High housing prices aren�t a hindrance to the ultra-rich. The pricier homes become, the more desirable they are as a marker of social status. That�s why one top investor not long ago compared Vancouver condos to contemporary art. Rich people are less likely than the rest of us to live in the homes they purchase. A poll done by the group Knight Frank suggested the most popular reason rich people acquire real estate �is as an investment to sell in the future.� Which means they profit when prices rise.

3. Rapidly rising house prices are deepening class divides

Unaffordable homes are not just a drag on people�s incomes. The housing crisis is doing lasting damage to social mobility. If you are hoping to improve your income, your best bet these days is to live in � or relocate to � a large, globally connected city. Over 90 per cent of new jobs in Canada over the past several years were created in just three such cities: Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. And of those, Vancouver has Canada�s fastest growing economy. But housing is so pricey that those opportunities are denied to many people. One real estate economist worries that �we are driving a very large wedge between the lowest income earners and the highest income earners.�

4. Industry leaders are convinced the middle class is dying

The real estate industry is aware social mobility is declining. Its leaders know there is huge demand for cheaper homes. But they prefer to profit from income inequality rather than doing anything about it. That�s one takeaway from a major real estate industry trends report produced by PwC and the Urban Land Institute. �The middle class has been hollowing out,� it concluded. With land prices going up in big cities, the industry is increasingly focused on building luxury homes for wealthy people. Not everyone thinks it�s a wise strategy. �Time will tell if that�s going to come back to haunt us,� said one CEO. �Not everybody makes $75,000 to $100,000 a year.�

5. Your intimate data is being used to drive home sales

Even if you don�t earn much money, you can still be valuable to the real estate industry as a source of data. It�s likely not news to you that almost everything you do online � and off � is tracked and sold to advertisers. But what is new is that the real estate industry is now trying to get in on the action. Companies are creating technology that mines public records and notifies realtors when a potential client gives birth, declares bankruptcy or files for divorce. Industry forecaster Swanepoel predicts �this technology will be huge.� But at what cost to privacy? Or our right to control our identities? �I don�t think anybody has the answer,� said one observer.

6. Political leaders aren�t telling the full story about housing

What we can be certain of is that politicians aren�t telling the full story about the true causes of unaffordability. British Columbia Premier Christy Clark has argued �the only way to really solve� the housing crisis is to build more condos. And during the provincial election, her BC Liberals took any chance they could to blame the red tape and protesters they claim are standing in the way. Yet the majority of new condo units are sold to speculators. More supply isn�t helping locals. The market does what it knows best: maximizing profits. Which is why industry insiders like Richard Wozny argue the �only group at fault are politicians� � those who know what the problem is but refuse to fix it.

7. Local speculators are cashing in while we blame foreigners

The most substantial step the BC Liberals took towards fixing Vancouver�s housing crisis was the 15 per cent Foreign Buyers Tax. At first the tax seemed to work: home sales and prices fell. But prices are once again rising. And this time transactions involving overseas buyers are at relative lows. �Everything we see suggests that there is a whole lot more domestic investment activity in the real estate sector than foreign investment,� said the head of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. Foreign money is a big cause of crazy home prices. But so are Canada�s historically low interest rates, which make it �almost stupid to not buy property,� argued the site Better Dwelling.

8. Income inequality is causing a boom in luxury retail

Real estate has become a zero-sum game in Vancouver. Those at the top are doing better than ever, while everyone else struggles. It�s a fair assessment of our wider economy. Recent data from Stats Canada showed that average Canadian incomes have stopped increasing. Yet the ranks of the ultra-rich in Canada are growing faster than in the U.S. � between 2006 and 2016, the number of people worth over $30 million rose 50 per cent in this country. These elites want to flaunt their wealth. And the boom of luxury retailers across the country is happy to oblige them. �High-end retail will prosper as the high-end population does well,� noted one real estate analyst.

9. People within the industry want serious solutions

What the May provincial election showed is that people across the province, but particularly in urban regions, want serious change. They are sick of being priced out of their cities. They�re fed up with an economy that privileges the wealthy. And they�re tired of being lied to. The NDP-Green coalition now has an opportunity to make things better. Leaders of the two parties promised housing policies that �will have an impact,� local realtor Steve Saretsky told The Tyee. He is one of many people within the real estate industry who supports solutions to our current housing crisis. �A lot of realtors I�ve spoken with want some sanity to the market,� he noted. �They know it isn�t sustainable.� [Tyee]

10. Steve Saretzky and Better Dwelling are libtards

# ? Jun 19, 2017 18:04

Subjunctive: Sep 12, 2006; ✨sparkle and shine✨

Aramis posted:

With Montreal turning into a massive machine learning Hub over the last two years, I fully expect McGill to become the next UBC (urg...)

McGill isn't really where the action is, though.

E: oh, maybe that's what you meant

Subjunctive fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Jun 19, 2017

# ? Jun 19, 2017 18:14

Evis: Feb 28, 2007; Flying Spaghetti Monster

BC is heading for another election before the NDP/Greens can even take power.

# ? Jun 19, 2017 18:21

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://twitter.com/CooperTrustee/status/876838118913167360

Scott Terio's twitter is a constant flow of delicious of schadefreude

# ? Jun 19, 2017 20:23

Cold on a Cob: Feb 6, 2006; i've seen so much, i'm going blind
and i'm brain dead virtually; College Slice

If you really want to see how the economy is doing, check out the food banks. Hint: They're busier than ever

# ? Jun 19, 2017 20:25

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

quote:

Australia's Haunted Housing Market

You know that horror-film trope where some piece of ominous information is missed by all the characters? Where the dire warnings of the one wise old Cassandra who spots what's going on are inevitably ignored?

Something similar is happening in Australia's frothy housing market.

Forget all the headlines about the undimmed pace of house price inflation -- up 19 percent in Sydney during March, pushing the median house price in the city to A$1.15 million ($875,000) according to Domain, a property-listings website.

House prices, after all, aren't so much a guide to the state of the housing market as to the 1 percent or so of homes that bought or sold in a typical year. Even there, they're less an indicator of supply and demand for housing than of how supply and demand for mortgage credit interact with real estate fundamentals.

Splurge on mortgage credit, and even an overbuilt housing market can enjoy price appreciation; cut back on home loans, and the opposite may be the case.

That's why it's worth looking at the state of rents. Right now, they're growing at the slowest pace in more than two decades, according to calculations based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

This hasn't completely escaped notice. Philip Lowe, who took over as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia in September, has included the same boilerplate reference (with minor cosmetic modifications) in each of the eight monetary policy decision statements he's put out so far:

In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases are the slowest for two decades.

As Lowe indicates, the reason for the slowdown in rents isn't hard to discern. For most of Australia's recent history, building has struggled to keep pace with household formation. Supply of new homes has kept close to demand, and as a result rents have tended to grow more or less in line with incomes.

That appears to be changing. You don't have to drive around Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane for long these days to be astonished at the sheer volume of new apartments going up. The 548 cranes at work on residential housing in Australia at present are equivalent to almost three times the number across 14 North American cities surveyed by consultancy Rider Levett Bucknall, including New York, Los Angeles, Toronto, Chicago and San Francisco.

Compare the Housing Institute of Australia's forecasts of housing starts and the Australian Bureau of Statistics' forecasts of household formation, and the glut really comes into focus:

The surplus of homes that Australian cities have built over the past five years, based on those numbers, is equivalent to a whole year's worth of excess supply.

That's a worrying development for those hoping that Australia's house price boom is sustainable, especially given the way that the country's regulators look to be finally attempting to raise credit standards after years of laxity.

Still, if Australia manages to deflate the housing bubble without seriously damaging its economy, the heroes and villains will be quite different from the popular perception.

While governments and regulators spent years adding to the problem with tax breaks and hostility to macroprudential regulation, it may well be property investors and foreigners who helped ease the crisis.

One of the biggest drivers of the excess supply -- and a pace of rental growth that is at last letting Australians' incomes catch up to their housing costs -- has been a shift in the housing stock from single-family homes on quarter-acre blocks of land to apartments.

The number of apartments being built has tripled since 2009 and last year, one third of approvals were for such properties, according a paper published Thursday by the Reserve Bank's economic analysis department. Demand from investors and foreign buyers has been a key driver of that shift, according to the authors.

A nation that likes to blame a wave of Chinese buyers for the high cost of property should reflect on its good fortune. Were it not for all those foreigners and investors, Australia's housing could be even costlier than it already is.

# ? Jun 19, 2017 20:27

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

The comments on this one are a good insight into average vancouverite thinking, pretty much in line with most people I know.

https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/6i2ba4/if_housing_prices_in_the_vancouver_area_were_to/

It's straight up distilled "it's different this time, because of infinite rich chinese."

If poo poo ever blows up I want to get this whole page engraved in granite and mounted on a post on Georgia St.

The Butcher fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Jun 19, 2017

# ? Jun 19, 2017 21:01

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

page not found

# ? Jun 19, 2017 21:02

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

Weird. Here: https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/6i2ba4/if_housing_prices_in_the_vancouver_area_were_to/

# ? Jun 19, 2017 21:09

Aramis: Sep 22, 2009

Subjunctive posted:

McGill isn't really where the action is, though.

E: oh, maybe that's what you meant

Both McGill and UdM are in the process of massively ramping up their ML labs to keep up with the ridiculous demand for graduates. UdM is still the bigger lab by far, but I can't see foreign students flocking to the french university like what happened at UBC. That's why I expect McGill to be the hot student tourist destination within a few years.

# ? Jun 19, 2017 21:20

The Butcher: Apr 20, 2005; Well, at least we tried.; Nap Ghost

Also this: https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/6i91jt/update_presales_sure_have_changed_quite_a_bit/

quote:

So last time I made a post about how developers are so confident of selling out, they don't care to make showrooms of what you are going to get upon completion and the presentations are bare minimum now.

Here is the post: https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/6gto6p/presales_sure_have_changed_quite_a_bit/

An update on this: Joyce is now sold out. Guess the developers were right to be overconfident.

Apparently a 439sqft sold for $715k no parking included. http://i.imgur.com/nbsX9vS.jpg Image courtesy of /user/localfamilydoc

I guess this should give a grim picture of the current housing market. I don't think it's crashing anytime soon. I think it's just going to go up more.

And from the comments,

quote:

permalias [score hidden] 10 minutes ago

The presale apparently had to use a lotto system to sell the units as it was so popular. each person who came to the presale launch got a ticket that went into a draw, and you had to be present to buy.

The day after i guess they sold out everything except the 3 beds as i saw them trying to 'unload' those for 1.2-1.5mil (911 sf + patio: 1100-1200 sf combined)

[�]ZileanQ [score hidden] 5 minutes ago

Lottery systems are quite common in places with limited supply - I know they are used in Hong Kong.

That's some pretty interesting sales psychology poo poo. Bet you guys there's like a 0% back out rate for anyone who wins a lotto to buy a thing.

# ? Jun 19, 2017 22:03

unknown: Nov 16, 2002; Ain't got no stinking title yet!

The Butcher posted:

That's some pretty interesting sales psychology poo poo. Bet you guys there's like a 0% back out rate for anyone who wins a lotto to buy a thing.

Why would you? You can probably flip that before your own cheque clears! :homebrew:

# ? Jun 19, 2017 22:17

Professor Shark: May 22, 2012

Subjunctive posted:

Bad behaviour in high school?!? Clearly people of weak character and middling capability.

Don't waste your breath, pot head!

# ? Jun 20, 2017 15:01

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://twitter.com/AnneMcMullin/status/876878628423745536

woke bae jagmeet hangin out with one of the biggest developer shills

i guess we now know where he stands on housing

# ? Jun 20, 2017 15:23

leftist heap: Feb 28, 2013; Fun Shoe

You know who doesn't campaign with developer shills? Niki Ashton.

# ? Jun 20, 2017 16:30

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# ? May 15, 2024 11:26

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

Hot pick for you CI, I'm sure you qualify so just sign the risk acknowledgement form.

http://www.incometrustone.com/how-to-invest.php

# ? Jun 20, 2017 16:40

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

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