|
The Astros have been so good this year I haven't had time to follow the Indians much beyond news and box scores. I just wish I still had an NL team to give a poo poo about.
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 07:36
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 29, 2024 10:03 |
|
|
Sydin posted:I was going to try and find some smug way to refute this but wow I did not realize he was only worth 0.8 less fWAR in 2015 vs 2016. I remember him being much more terrible in 2015 than that. I don't know what numbers you're looking at - Fangraphs WAR has him at 3.3 2015/4.5 2016, and B-R has him at 1.8 2015/5.0 2016. He also had an ERA+ of 96 in 2015 so I don't know how the hell a below-average pitcher can rack up 3+ WAR in a season.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 09:50
|
|
|
So what's the record for worst run differential in a series split 2-2? Because the Jays sure had four games against the Astros.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 10:27
|
|
|
Julio Cruz posted:I don't know what numbers you're looking at - Fangraphs WAR has him at 3.3 2015/4.5 2016, and B-R has him at 1.8 2015/5.0 2016. He also had an ERA+ of 96 in 2015 so I don't know how the hell a below-average pitcher can rack up 3+ WAR in a season. I'm pretty sure it's because Fangraphs' WAR formulation uses FIP instead of ERA.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 14:15
|
|
|
howe_sam posted:I'm pretty sure it's because Fangraphs' WAR formulation uses FIP instead of ERA. Not only does it use FIP, it correlates almost perfectly to it, if I recall correctly.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 14:18
|
|
|
Julio Cruz posted:Kyle Freeland (no, me neither) has no-hit the White Sox through 8. Here's his family reacting to Melky's hit that broke it up: 
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 14:58
|
|
|
i'm the smirking brewers fan at a game between the Rockies and White Sox
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 15:15
|
|
|
This article is about a lot of things, including/especially the prospect of using Noah Syndergaard as a reliever while he gets back in pitching shape, butquote:Only after Harvey went on the disabled list did doctors discover that the muscles behind his right shoulder were roughly half the size of those on his left, Warthen said. What the gently caress is this? How is it even possible to not notice something like this semi-immediately?
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 15:24
|
|
|
Inspector_666 posted:Not only does it use FIP, it correlates almost perfectly to it, if I recall correctly. They're basically the same thing.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 15:38
|
|
|
YeahTubaMike posted:This article is about a lot of things, including/especially the prospect of using Noah Syndergaard as a reliever while he gets back in pitching shape, but It heavily implies they didn't even think to look for atrophy which is complete loving insanity. EDIT: Meanwhile Greg Bird is being sent to another doctor for a tenth opinion because his ankle still isn't right, and I remember seeing a headline a couple weeks ago that they were considering exploratory surgery. Inspector_666 fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Jul 10, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 15:52
|
|
|
The Mets medical staff needs to be DFA
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 15:56
|
|
|
Hand Knit posted:So what's the record for worst run differential in a series split 2-2? Because the Jays sure had four games against the Astros. Do you mean cumulative or net because net it wasn't actually very big
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 16:00
|
|
|
howe_sam posted:I'm pretty sure it's because Fangraphs' WAR formulation uses FIP instead of ERA. I was wondering if it was this, and honestly I don't agree with it. IMO WAR is more of a factual stat (what actually happened), and basing it off a hypothetical stat (what should have happened) doesn't make sense.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 16:21
|
|
|
Julio Cruz posted:I was wondering if it was this, and honestly I don't agree with it. IMO WAR is more of a factual stat (what actually happened), and basing it off a hypothetical stat (what should have happened) doesn't make sense. I agree, and the fact that fWAR is FIP ego symphonic posted:They're basically the same thing. makes it way less useful than bWAR for pitchers. People egregiously misuse pitcher stats (especially ERA v FIP) all the time though, so it's an uphill battle.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 16:23
|
|
|
Julio Cruz posted:I was wondering if it was this, and honestly I don't agree with it. IMO WAR is more of a factual stat (what actually happened), and basing it off a hypothetical stat (what should have happened) doesn't make sense. It is a measure of K, BB, and HR given up by the pitcher along with IP. It combines these facts in a manner meant to imitate ERA, for convenience. FIP is not a measure of "what should have happened," it is a measure of certain things that did happen. Much the way ERA is a measure of only certain things that did happen (earned runs). ERA doesn't care about strikeouts or walks or dingers, just runs crossing the plate. AVG and SLG are both descriptive stats which measure different though related things a hitter did. ERA and FIP are both descriptive stats which measure different though related things a pitcher did. Stop thinking of FIP as something meant to replace ERA, and start thinking of it as something meant to compliment ERA. bawfuls fucked around with this message at 16:28 on Jul 10, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 16:26
|
|
|
bawfuls posted:Stop thinking of FIP as something meant to replace ERA, and start thinking of it as something meant to compliment ERA. A pitcher's job, when it comes down to it, is to prevent the opposition scoring runs. Pitcher A (5.5 ERA 3.2 FIP) might well be a better pitcher in general than pitcher B (2.8 ERA 4.8 FIP) but I wouldn't agree with Fangraphs that he was more valuable as a player for that particular season.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 16:42
|
|
|
bawfuls posted:FIP is a descriptive "factual" stat. Except that in this specific context (how fWAR is calculated) it has replaced ERA. ERA is not factored into fWAR in any capacity, and as a result pitchers who have success preventing runs by inducing weak contact rather than piling up strikeouts are described as being less valuable. So you can put up 210 innings with a 2.83 ERA (Tanner Roark 2016, 3.2 fWAR) and be considered less valuable than 204 innings with a 4.37 ERA (Marcus Stroman 2016, 3.6 fWAR) which is counterintuitive because the pitcher's job is to prevent runs. It would seem sensible that the pitcher who allowed fewer runs in more innings would be more valuable by definition. The common argument against that line of thinking is that pitchers with low ERAs and high FIPs are likely to regress in the direction of their FIP. Contact management is extremely difficult to maintain long term and pitchers who outperform their FIP significantly are almost always benefiting from good defense or luck. The only thing that pitchers can truly control, the argument goes, is the number of batters they strike out, walk or give up homers to. Everything else is confounded by luck and/or defense, so we should give credit to the pitchers who do the best job at controlling what they can control (TTO metrics). But that results in the absurd scenario above where pitchers are rewarded for an abstraction rather than the actual result of the game. Ultimately the job is to prevent runs and a pitcher's WAR should reflect how well they did that, regardless of whether or not its sustainable. We don't ding batters WAR because they have a high BABIP or HR/FB%, we shouldn't do the equivalent for pitchers either.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 16:45
|
|
|
Intruder posted:Do you mean cumulative or net because net it wasn't actually very big Houston outscored Toronto by 20 runs over four games. That would be big in a sweep, but with split games I think that's pretty wild. e: They were outscored by 23 when being swept by the BoSox. They've given up some pretty crooked numbers lately.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 17:01
|
|
|
Hand Knit posted:Houston outscored Toronto by 20 runs over four games. That would be big in a sweep, but with split games I think that's pretty wild. Wow I didn't realize it was that high Yesterday was ridiculous Also lol I didn't realize the wild card was such a tire fire in the AL, the Angels and Rangers are only 3 games out, hell even the Blue Jays are only 5 out. The two worst teams in the AL are 7.5 out
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 17:01
|
|
|
Intruder posted:Also lol I didn't realize the wild card was such a tire fire in the AL, the Angels and Rangers are only 3 games out, hell even the Blue Jays are only 5 out. The two worst teams in the AL are 7.5 out Guessed them without even looking. Good lord, the White Sox and A's are bad.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 17:08
|
|
|
Julio Cruz posted:A pitcher's job, when it comes down to it, is to prevent the opposition scoring runs. Pitcher A (5.5 ERA 3.2 FIP) might well be a better pitcher in general than pitcher B (2.8 ERA 4.8 FIP) but I wouldn't agree with Fangraphs that he was more valuable as a player for that particular season. ego symphonic posted:Except that in this specific context (how fWAR is calculated) it has replaced ERA. ERA is not factored into fWAR in any capacity, and as a result pitchers who have success preventing runs by inducing weak contact rather than piling up strikeouts are described as being less valuable. So you can put up 210 innings with a 2.83 ERA (Tanner Roark 2016, 3.2 fWAR) and be considered less valuable than 204 innings with a 4.37 ERA (Marcus Stroman 2016, 3.6 fWAR) which is counterintuitive because the pitcher's job is to prevent runs. It would seem sensible that the pitcher who allowed fewer runs in more innings would be more valuable by definition. It is fine to say you prefer bWAR to fWAR because you think ultimately ERA is a better description of a pitcher's performance. I certainly get the sentiment that ultimately the pitcher's job is to prevent runs from scoring. But in the same vein, is it not then the hitter's job to score runs? And if so, then why don't we consider runs scored as the only real measure of a hitter's value? The answer of course, is that we recognize that scoring runs is not, generally, an individual achievement. So we credit hitters for the things they do independent of context. Sure, pitchers have more control over run scoring than an individual hitter does, but we also all understand it isn't 100% on the pitcher. The point of all this is to say that fWAR vs bWAR is a matter of preference, not a contrast between "what should have happened" and "what did happen." They are both measuring things that did happen, they just measure different things and it's fine if you care about one set of those things more than the other.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 17:10
|
|
|
The two worst teams in the AL are as close to the second wild card as the closest two (Cubs and Cardinals) in the NL. If we don't get some AL game 163 insanity this year it will be a complete rip off.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 17:11
|
|
|
YeahTubaMike posted:What the gently caress is this? (Please note that if you do catch an actual fever please do not consult the Mets team medical staff for assistance)
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 17:25
|
|
|
YeahTubaMike posted:This article is about a lot of things, including/especially the prospect of using Noah Syndergaard as a reliever while he gets back in pitching shape, but For the love of god, somebody please take a gamble and get Harvey out of New York. Maybe he never gets back to his pre-2016 numbers, but I have to imagine even a marginally competent medical/nutritional staff could get him back on track. The Mets are literally killing his career and I don't understand it. No wonder he goes out at 2am with friends to do shots. That's probably how I'd end up coping if these morons were getting paid to manage my health.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 18:17
|
|
|
bawfuls posted:The bold line is a step too far. Strikeouts, walks, and home runs are not abstractions. FIP is not rewarding abstractions. It is rewarding a different set of results than ERA. But it is an abstraction because it rewards that set of results by converting it into runs. The fundamental idea behind WAR is to quantify the number of runs that an individual produces and/or prevents relative to replacement level and then convert those into a number of wins. Basing pitcher WAR on FIP requires that one use FIP to calculate runs above replacement, which means that you're changing units from Ks, BBs & HRs to runs. That requires creating an abstraction of how many runs are typically allowed by players with that FIP profile since there's no direct way to convert TTO metrics into runs. It makes more sense to use a metric that is already measured in the same units (ERA) because you don't have to take the step of calculating how FIP converts to RAR. That's what I mean when I say fWAR is rewarding an abstraction. And the comparison to batters doesn't hold up because batters do not control the at-bats subsequent to their own. If you hit a double, you cannot then drive yourself in by hitting another double because you're standing on second base. A pitcher influences every single at bat while they're pitching, and can very easily give up a double and then another double to allow a run to score and be responsible for (or at least involved in) both events. I do however think it's a fair point that we shouldn't totally discount context-independent stats for pitchers, but I think the appropriate way to do that is to look at something like total bases allowed per out recorded or wOBAA. ego symphonic fucked around with this message at 18:46 on Jul 10, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 18:41
|
|
|
You would be correct if bawfuls was saying fWAR should be taken on its own as the one true measure of a pitcher's skill. That however is not what he's been saying at all Like most baseball stats, it's a useful metric that paints part of the picture but not the whole. That's all e: Basically, FIP does exactly what it sets out to do which is measure a pitcher's results on three factors and then present them in a way that's familiar to our eye Intruder fucked around with this message at 19:00 on Jul 10, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 18:53
|
|
|
Today I learned that in high school Aaron Judge was simultaneously a superstar pitcher, 1B, tight end, and power forward. Aaron Judge is basically Bill Brasky.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 19:04
|
|
|
I'm changing all of my HRD votes to predict Gary Sanchez to win. https://twitter.com/WhatProsWear/status/884456404370702337 Inspector_666 fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Jul 10, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 19:04
|
|
|
That bat is begging for an anime girl photoshop
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 19:07
|
|
|
Intruder posted:You would be correct if bawfuls was saying fWAR should be taken on its own as the one true measure of a pitcher's skill. That however is not what he's been saying at all Yeah, sorry, I know that's not what he's saying but I feel like that's what Fangraph's presentation of the stat implies. This is just me old-man-yells-at-clouding about Fangraphs. I agree with all the things Bawfuls and others have said about FIP itself. But I do think that WAR is intended to be a single stat that encapsulates all of the ways that a player contributes value to a team and that basing it on only a single dimension of performance (FIP or otherwise) will result it misleading conclusions about player value. ego symphonic fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Jul 10, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 19:17
|
|
|
Sydin posted:For the love of god, somebody please take a gamble and get Harvey out of New York. Maybe he never gets back to his pre-2016 numbers, but I have to imagine even a marginally competent medical/nutritional staff could get him back on track. The Mets are literally killing his career and I don't understand it. I still can't get over the Familia thing. The minute he told a trainer that his hand was tingling, he should have been pulled immediately and checked out (by a doctor who isn't a lunatic). Tingling can be a sign of anything: Heart issues, severe hypokalemia, hypomagnesia, ketoacidosis, or, as it turned out to be, a clot. I mean, I'm particularly sensitive to that because I nearly died from PEs and DVTs last year (I had a clot in my left arm so nasty that a little more than a quarter-pint of blood had pooled underneath my bicep because it had nowhere to go, and the clotting was so severe because the B12 levels in my blood were literally undetectable), but, Jesus, the minute there's a possibility someone could have a clot issue--or one of those other nasties, like hypokalemia--you get them into a CT scanner yesterday.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 19:19
|
|
|
If whoever makes the GDT tonight does not name it "A Dong Stroking Competition", I will be sad.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 19:21
|
|
|
Timby posted:I still can't get over the Familia thing. The minute he told a trainer that his hand was tingling, he should have been pulled immediately and checked out (by a doctor who isn't a lunatic). Tingling can be a sign of anything: Heart issues, severe hypokalemia, hypomagnesia, ketoacidosis, or, as it turned out to be, a clot. Not just that but the Mets had a guy who had loving TOS surgery this past offseason and they just blew off what could be TOS symptoms. It's seriously at the point where the league should step in, the Mets medical staff are a danger to the players.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 19:23
|
|
|
Inspector_666 posted:I'm changing all of my HRD votes to predict Gary Sanchez to win. El Gary is the new El Guapo
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 20:06
|
|
|
iospace posted:If whoever makes the GDT tonight does not name it "A Dong Stroking Competition", I will be sad. "Release the Back-Back-Backen". Yeah, I've got nothing.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 20:37
|
|
|
Berman wasn't as fun the last few years due to being old and low-energy, but the HRD still won't be the same without him.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 20:40
|
|
|
The Pussy Boss posted:Berman wasn't as fun the last few years due to being old and low-energy, but the HRD still won't be the same without him. You're correct, as it will be infinitely better
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 20:44
|
|
|
RC and Moon Pie posted:Atlanta is three games under .500. They'd be in contention with the Nationals if they had a decent bullpen and and closer. Nah. Really friendly schedule inflating things. The bench is also way too bad and the lineup isn't nearly the stack it would need to be. Also the starting pitching is pretty bad still. I do like the gradual improvements this season though. And it's startling how many bad teams there are in MLB this year. Dutchy posted:Tebow's gonna get called up and have a 2 HR debut and he'll be on the front page of all the sports sites every time he gets an RBI even though his OPS will be like .580 and he'll take the lead in outfield errors in 10 games Oh hi Jeff Francoeur!
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 21:10
|
|
|
I'm very glad that I never have to cheer for a team owned by Jeffrey Loria again.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 21:13
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 29, 2024 10:03 |
|
|
Fun fact, gang: Max Scherzer is the first pitcher with heterochromia iridum to start an All-Star game for both leagues.
|
|
#
?
Jul 10, 2017 21:38
|
|
