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Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES
$GOON:

NOTE, position sizing: Equidistribute funds between plays for baseline, weight according to confidence/risk?

Play: WEED
Rationale: Legalization is the migration of a colossal industry from the informal to the formal economy. This process has a long ways to go.
Position: $MJX. A US-based etf for predominantly US-based goons. It's also diversified into major players who are apt to crush or buy the little guys when the feds lay off.
Confidence: High.

Play: COBALT
Rationale: Demand is projected to outstrip supply for several years thanks to solar/EV-associated demand (for batteries). The way out is cobalt-free batteries and/or deep sea mining. These shouldn't happen for at least a few years.
Caveat: Cobalt is something which comes up alongside something else in small quantities. Cobalt mines don't exist. Copper and nickel miners with good cobalt production exist but who do you invest in???
Position: $KATFF It's basically a penny stock attached to a Congolese copper mining complex with excellent cobalt reserves. They finally look to be on stable footing and should benefit from surging cobalt prices.
Confidence: Very low.

Honorable mentions to $LIT for lithium and $TAN for solar.

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Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

jvick posted:

You mean we should diversify the thread? I agree. What shall we discuss?

A&W! Not the terrible American one, but the excellent Canadian one.

A&W is the second largest quick-service hamburger restaurant chain in Canada and has 861 restaurants.

On a whim I bought a small amount of shares mostly on the basis that it seemed that A&W had been opening up a lot of new restaurants recently, including 24/7 ones, and due to A&W's higher quality food, they'd slowly replaced McDonalds as my goto "drunken regretful post bar food." Surely that meant something.

So far this investment has... not paid off.

But seriously they're mostly based in Western Canada, and are just getting started in seriously expanding out East and into Quebec so there's lots of room to grow. It seems like the sort of business that at one point could be an appealing acquisition for a larger holding company.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Accretionist posted:

$GOON:

Play: COBALT
Rationale: Demand is projected to outstrip supply for several years thanks to solar/EV-associated demand (for batteries). The way out is cobalt-free batteries and/or deep sea mining. These shouldn't happen for at least a few years.
Caveat: Cobalt is something which comes up alongside something else in small quantities. Cobalt mines don't exist. Copper and nickel miners with good cobalt production exist but who do you invest in???
Position: $KATFF It's basically a penny stock attached to a Congolese copper mining complex with excellent cobalt reserves. They finally look to be on stable footing and should benefit from surging cobalt prices.
Confidence: Very low.


Another position in this area for $GOON could be:

quote:


$FCC.V. It's a Canadian group trying to assemble some land around the aptly named town of Cobalt, Ontario. There was an early 20th century silver mining boom there and the mines apparently also contained lots of "useless" cobalt. I heard about it from this bloomberg article.

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

Gonna take a look at this. Suprising how much they'll let you have access to their information and analysis for $0.00 balance :rolleyes:

lol me too :razzy:

although balance is at $100 to help chances. they either don’t care or they realize that i’m still logging into the platform daily and they’re salivating thinking about the commissions from the scalping days and are praying for the return lol. they probably just don’t freaking care

Garfu
Mar 6, 2008

Much like buttholes, families are meant to be tight.
Another good day

Rocks
Dec 30, 2011

Garfu posted:

Another good day


Smoke weed stalks everyday

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

$HMNY lol interview on Yahoo or something cash flow neutral in 60 days and potential ICO / BLOCKCHAIN / CRYPTO :lol: up After Hours on interivew, come to pappa :D :D :D

lets get to 10, 12, 15 gogogogogoooo :black101:

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Did he actually say blockchain? SCREAMING BUY

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

Rocks gets the last laugh on HMNY

Harry
Jun 13, 2003

I do solemnly swear that in the year 2015 I will theorycraft my wallet as well as my WoW

Syrinxx posted:

Rocks gets the last laugh on HMNY

I thought he sold it due to our expert guidance?

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


I am still bagholding HMNY. It's been in write-down territory for months.

Business
Feb 6, 2007

Josh Lyman posted:

I am still bagholding HMNY. It's been in write-down territory for months.

Me too bud! Theres gonna be another dumb bubble there for sure we will do great buy buy buy

hot cocoa on the couch
Dec 8, 2009

Femtosecond posted:

A&W! Not the terrible American one, but the excellent Canadian one.

A&W is the second largest quick-service hamburger restaurant chain in Canada and has 861 restaurants.

On a whim I bought a small amount of shares mostly on the basis that it seemed that A&W had been opening up a lot of new restaurants recently, including 24/7 ones, and due to A&W's higher quality food, they'd slowly replaced McDonalds as my goto "drunken regretful post bar food." Surely that meant something.

So far this investment has... not paid off.

But seriously they're mostly based in Western Canada, and are just getting started in seriously expanding out East and into Quebec so there's lots of room to grow. It seems like the sort of business that at one point could be an appealing acquisition for a larger holding company.

I worked in the warehouse that handles 90% of their distribution in Ontario, and in the 7 years I worked there I’d seen the volume of product coming and going about triple in that time.

When I was hired there in 2010, they had just signed a contract with Wendy’s to distribute. A&W was already a customer and Wendy’s was considered to be worth about ten times as much on a yearly basis. They bought new trailers and emblazoned Wendy’s largely and proudly underneath the company logo. When I quit in September of last year to go back to school, A&W had flourished and Wendy’s had floundered. A&W was up to doing about half of Wendy’s volume in an average night.

I’ve never looked at the financials too closely, but anecdotally, A&W is definitely increasing sales year over year in Ontario .

hot cocoa on the couch fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Jan 9, 2018

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



Femtosecond posted:

A&W! Not the terrible American one, but the excellent Canadian one.

A&W is the second largest quick-service hamburger restaurant chain in Canada and has 861 restaurants.

On a whim I bought a small amount of shares mostly on the basis that it seemed that A&W had been opening up a lot of new restaurants recently, including 24/7 ones, and due to A&W's higher quality food, they'd slowly replaced McDonalds as my goto "drunken regretful post bar food." Surely that meant something.

So far this investment has... not paid off.

But seriously they're mostly based in Western Canada, and are just getting started in seriously expanding out East and into Quebec so there's lots of room to grow. It seems like the sort of business that at one point could be an appealing acquisition for a larger holding company.

Asuming you are talking about TSE: AW.UN, then that's an income fund (which is giving a 4.5/5% yield paid monthly), so the share price stagnating is kind of to be expected by nature, really.

tagesschau
Sep 1, 2006
Guten Abend, meine Damen und Herren.
AW.UN (and anything else that's a Canadian income fund/trust) looks like it might be a PFIC, which, if you're an American, requires you to fill out Form 8621. The estimated time to complete Form 8621 is roughly 37 hours, and you must fill out Form 8621 for each PFIC you own shares in. If that PFIC owns shares in other PFICs, you must complete Form 8621 for each of those, and so on down the line.

Your accountant will make more money from this endeavor than you possibly could.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Aramis posted:

Asuming you are talking about TSE: AW.UN, then that's an income fund (which is giving a 4.5/5% yield paid monthly), so the share price stagnating is kind of to be expected by nature, really.

Yeah I was aware that AW.UN was an income fund. It's not actually A&W Food Services, which is a private company (Boston Pizza and the Keg stocks are organized the same way. Common in franchise food businesses?). I frankly don't know much about income funds. Could you speak to why the share price stagnating is "kind of to be expected by nature?"

I understand that AW.UN and A&W the food business aren't the same thing, though there is a relationship by which as A&W expands and makes more sales, AW.UN gets more revenue.

quote:

The source of income for the A&W Revenue Royalties Income Fund (the Fund) is through its ownership in A&W Trade Marks Inc. (Trade Marks) which is the sole general partner in A&W Trade Marks Limited Partnership (the Partnership). The Partnership owns the A&W trade-marks and licences these trade-marks to A&W Food Services of Canada Inc. (A&W Food Services) for use in operating and franchising A&W restaurants. In return, A&W Food Services pays the Partnership a top-line royalty of 3% of sales from A&W restaurants in the Royalty Pool.

I wonder what happens if some giant holding company wanted to buy A&W. Would they buy out AW.UN as well? Or would it just be status quo?

Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 02:21 on Jan 10, 2018

Rocks
Dec 30, 2011

A&W makes some goddamn delicious Uncle Burgers and onion rings so I vote to buy stock in it

Rocks
Dec 30, 2011

For those asking previously, yes I sold HMNY and was happy to, especially after today, I don’t trust any management that is considering getting into cryptocurrencies.

Am I disappointed they jumped today? Sure I guess, but long term I made the right decision IMHO

KaiserKarl
Dec 31, 2006
Anyone got any hot take commodities ETF theses? Going to take a minimum entry position in VAW. Would like to add something else to the mix for shits and giggles as part of my intermediate term hedging strategy against my BTCBLOCKCHAINWEEDTECHFINTECHBIOTECH gambling.

KaiserKarl fucked around with this message at 07:57 on Jan 10, 2018

Jamfrost
Jul 20, 2013

I'm too busy thinkin' about my baby. Oh I ain't got time for nothin' else.
Slime TrainerS
What if they made a cannabis cryptocurrency? A THCoin.

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



Femtosecond posted:

Could you speak to why the share price stagnating is "kind of to be expected by nature?"

Very roughly: most of the profit of the fund is distributed as dividend, so the capital of the fund itself tends to stay roughly the same. If you were to reinvest these dividends in the fund as fast as you get them, you'd get returns that are more in line with what you'd get from a straight stock of a steadily growing company.

Edit: Concretely, that means that the value of the shares of the fund will tend to stabilize around whatever price makes it so the dividend yield matches what is expected by investors (around 4.5% right now). Note that this does not apply to all income funds. Some have a hard-stated share value. Shares in FTN.TO, for example are always worth around 10$, since that's the amount that the fund will pay for each share once it closes.

Aramis fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jan 10, 2018

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Aramis posted:

Edit: Concretely, that means that the value of the shares of the fund will tend to stabilize around whatever price makes it so the dividend yield matches what is expected by investors (around 4.5% right now).

Right that makes sense. That's about what I thought you were going to say. So as A&W adds more stores and expectations of revenue are increased one would likely see the value of shares increase a bit, but not so much that the dividend yield changes significantly.

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



Femtosecond posted:

Right that makes sense. That's about what I thought you were going to say. So as A&W adds more stores and expectations of revenue are increased one would likely see the value of shares increase a bit, but not so much that the dividend yield changes significantly.

In theory, the company growth should lead to increased net revenue, which should lead to bigger dividend payouts. But if A&W is aggressively expanding, then that means it's reinvesting a lot of that revenue. Ironically, you'd expect the value of the fund to really kick off if/when the company decides to stop expanding and focus on just generating cash.

Ossipago
Nov 14, 2012

Muldoon

Jamfrost posted:

What if they made a cannabis cryptocurrency? A THCoin.

http://www.potcoin.com

Business
Feb 6, 2007

lmao this HMNY thing is hilarious. they just kind of smirked and said they were aware of blockchain and 'looking into it' and boom +30% premarket

Harry
Jun 13, 2003

I do solemnly swear that in the year 2015 I will theorycraft my wallet as well as my WoW
My INTC puts and KODK shares/warrants are looking good. They will almost perfectly offset the bloodbath that will be my SPX calls today.

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

Business posted:

lmao this HMNY thing is hilarious. they just kind of smirked and said they were aware of blockchain and 'looking into it' and boom +30% premarket

still in from 6.02 big size. loving it :D :D :D

EAT FASTER!!!!!!
Sep 21, 2002

Legendary.


:hampants::hampants::hampants:

Jack Daniels posted:

still in from 6.02 big size. loving it :D :D :D

gently caress this stupid loving market lol.

CRYPTO CRYPTO CRYPTO

BUY BUY BUY

We're getting into tulips, actually?

Omnicarus
Jan 16, 2006

3D printed polymer nanocarbon microtube tulips ebilled through block chain internet social media deep learning big cryptodata crowdsourced locally owned Kickstarter.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
Sears blockchain, blue apron blockchain, Toysrus blockchain. Should we buy the far otm leaps now? :rolleyes: All these lovely companies getting in on the magic of retail investors not understanding crypto

jvick
Jun 24, 2008

WE ARE
PENN STATE

Accretionist posted:

$GOON:

NOTE, position sizing: Equidistribute funds between plays for baseline, weight according to confidence/risk?

Play: WEED
Rationale: Legalization is the migration of a colossal industry from the informal to the formal economy. This process has a long ways to go.
Position: $MJX. A US-based etf for predominantly US-based goons. It's also diversified into major players who are apt to crush or buy the little guys when the feds lay off.
Confidence: High.

Play: COBALT
Rationale: Demand is projected to outstrip supply for several years thanks to solar/EV-associated demand (for batteries). The way out is cobalt-free batteries and/or deep sea mining. These shouldn't happen for at least a few years.
Caveat: Cobalt is something which comes up alongside something else in small quantities. Cobalt mines don't exist. Copper and nickel miners with good cobalt production exist but who do you invest in???
Position: $KATFF It's basically a penny stock attached to a Congolese copper mining complex with excellent cobalt reserves. They finally look to be on stable footing and should benefit from surging cobalt prices.
Confidence: Very low.

Honorable mentions to $LIT for lithium and $TAN for solar.


I make no claims to be an expert, so my hope is that you guys will provide a suggestion at least for the size of a position. Current balance of cash is $8,830.05

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost

Risky Bisquick posted:

Sears blockchain, blue apron blockchain, Toysrus blockchain. Should we buy the far otm leaps now? :rolleyes: All these lovely companies getting in on the magic of retail investors not understanding crypto
Blockchain really is the latest bullshit buzzword of the year. I've seen people waltz into boardroom meetings with "BTC/Blockchain" PowerPoints as the be-all-fix-all to department-wide issues. Meanwhile they were never able to explain how the technology works or how it would actually solve problems. Worse yet, business school professors have recently got wind of blockchain technology and have been teaching it to students who're now walking into work placements and bringing it up in every lunch and learn that they attend. I'd say that only about 1/10 people who talk about it really know how it works. A company that I recently worked with had a business school competition for fixing some IT infrastructure issue they were having. All entrants, except for one, all discussed "block chain technology". At one point the judges startes rolling their eyes and throwing their heads back in frustration when "Blockchain" appeared in the PowerPoint cover slide.

The same thing happened with Cloud Computing a few years ago. And before that Beanie Babies. Crypto is so deep into bubble territory that it's not even funny, any more.

Aramis posted:

In theory, the company growth should lead to increased net revenue, which should lead to bigger dividend payouts. But if A&W is aggressively expanding, then that means it's reinvesting a lot of that revenue. Ironically, you'd expect the value of the fund to really kick off if/when the company decides to stop expanding and focus on just generating cash.
A&W has definitely stepped up their game. But unfortunately for them so has McDonalds. And McDonalds is always buying up the best real estate/leasing space for locations and crowding out A&W. So in many cases A&W has no choice but to attach themselves to Home Depots and gas stations. A lot of A&Ws in my area have had to buy billboards directing motorists to their weird, off-the-beaten-path locations. Difficult for them, since people are really lazy when it comes to getting fast food.

melon cat fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Jan 11, 2018

Solice Kirsk
Jun 1, 2004

.

jvick posted:

I make no claims to be an expert, so my hope is that you guys will provide a suggestion at least for the size of a position. Current balance of cash is $8,830.05

Has Citron shelled anyone today? We should buy $2k of what ever they hate next.

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

"McDonalds is in the real estate business, not the hamburger business" - Ray Kroc

It's still true.

Business
Feb 6, 2007

EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

gently caress this stupid loving market lol.

CRYPTO CRYPTO CRYPTO

BUY BUY BUY

We're getting into tulips, actually?

the funny thing is that I truly don't think they went on the interview planning to say anything about crypto. it was to promote their change in cash flow and talk about advertising partnerships. the interviewer was making (I think) an off the cuff transition from talking about Kodak, to talking about moviepass, and the guy didn't immediately shut her down about the idea. I'm gonna be annoyed if HMNY gets lumped in with blockchain stuff because it's a little less stupid and a little more legit than these blockchain companies. just a little.

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



EAT FASTER!!!!!! posted:

gently caress this stupid loving market lol.

CRYPTO CRYPTO CRYPTO

BUY BUY BUY

We're getting into tulips, actually?

It also works both ways.

BB instantly lost something like 5% this morning because apparently a partner's site was found to be running a javascript bitcoin miner (maybe I missed something else, but it sure looks like that). Literally, negative news + crypto lead to SELL SELL SELL! Even though it's minor and fairly removed from the company.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


melon cat posted:

Blockchain really is the latest bullshit buzzword of the year. I've seen people waltz into boardroom meetings with "BTC/Blockchain" PowerPoints as the be-all-fix-all to department-wide issues. Meanwhile they were never able to explain how the technology works or how it would actually solve problems. Worse yet, business school professors have recently got wind of blockchain technology and have been teaching it to students who're now walking into work placements and bringing it up in every lunch and learn that they attend. I'd say that only about 1/10 people who talk about it really know how it works. A company that I recently worked with had a business school competition for fixing some IT infrastructure issue they were having. All entrants, except for one, all discussed "block chain technology". At one point the judges startes rolling their eyes and throwing their heads back in frustration when "Blockchain" appeared in the PowerPower cover slide.

The same thing happened with Cloud Computing a few years ago. And before that Beanie Babies. Crypto is so deep into bubble territory that it's not even funny, any more.
If I hadn’t fallen off the rails of becoming a b school prof, I could’ve done my part to stem the tide. :negative:

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

Business posted:

the funny thing is that I truly don't think they went on the interview planning to say anything about crypto. it was to promote their change in cash flow and talk about advertising partnerships. the interviewer was making (I think) an off the cuff transition from talking about Kodak, to talking about moviepass, and the guy didn't immediately shut her down about the idea. I'm gonna be annoyed if HMNY gets lumped in with blockchain stuff because it's a little less stupid and a little more legit than these blockchain companies. just a little.

:agreed:

EAT FASTER!!!!!!
Sep 21, 2002

Legendary.


:hampants::hampants::hampants:
I'm gonna slap a piece on SeekingAlpha declaring HMNY to be a blockchain company and whipsaw you into bankruptcy.

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Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

lol you really try that? Teh Seeking Crappa article just hit! :razz:

Helios Matheson: The Casino Rages On
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4136712-helios-matheson-casino-rages

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