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comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

Uranium 235 posted:

the risk is relative. trading something much less volatile without margin will obviously be lower risk than trading crypto

i can't remember for sure but i probably have said "low risk"--what i mean is "low risk to reward." the amount i'm risking (willing to lose) on a trade is significantly lower than what i expect to gain if the trade goes the way that i'm speculating it will. if i'm wrong then i sell for a small loss, if i'm right then i sell a partial position to take profit and let the rest ride longer. as the price rises, i sell more and more of my remaining position
Your belief hinges on that you can see the market crash coming that wipes everyone out. Maybe you're right. Maybe you're also hilariously wrong. Maybe you just get really lucky and you'll feel you were right all along.

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salt shakeup
Jun 27, 2004

'orrible fucking nights
baghodler*

Wassbix
May 24, 2006
Thanks guy!

Adar posted:

...yes that's what I said and is not the timeframe you came up with (but you can use -any- 5 year timeframe in the history of commercial RE if you'd like)

between this and risc1911 explaining no one can make a profit on exchanges this thread has gotten really good in the past few hours but not exactly for the right reasons

psst its been a low interest + friendly loaning environment, RE assets are recognized to have actual value and can be used as collateral to borrow as a % of current value. Now add in the a very hearty increase in RE values.

now rub two brain cells and see how the above can result in very generous returns on your starting capital.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

comedyblissoption posted:

Uranium is pushing the idea he can make low risk profits with his TA system.
any kind of crypto speculation is risky, and keeping money on crypto exchanges is risky. when i talk about trading setups, i'm talking about low risk-to-reward

i have a ton of posts in this thread over a period of many months so i don't expect people to know everything i've said so far, but i have been consistent in admitting how risky this venture is overall.

quote:

He acknowledges that the entire ecosystem will crash, but he also believes he'll be able to see the signs so that not only will he not be holding the bag, he's going to profit off the bagholders as it's crashing.
no, i won't be profiting off of anyone in that scenario. i'll be wiring my money out of coinbase if it's possible

gary oldmans diary
Sep 26, 2005

There Bias Two posted:

Why are these people linking coinbase to their primary bank account?

There Bias Two posted:

Why are these people linking coinbase to their primary bank account?
this. so much this

wide stance posted:

Coinbase is in San Francisco therefore a stone's throw away from the feds.

Also now according to TechCrunch, Visa themselves have confirmed it wasn't Coinbase at fault.

https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/16/visa-coinbase-not-at-fault/?ncid=rss
i guess "visa themselves" is interchangeable with "visa according to the coinbase blog"

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

Your "low risk-to-reward" system seems to hinge on you being able to cash out at a small loss. This assumes that you can see the crash coming so that you can always keep your losses small instead of suddenly catastrophic.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

Adar posted:

you're right, even in the context he's using it that's too optimistic. when the crash comes the odds of it wiping out everyone equally are very high
i don't think so. i'll definitely be worried in that scenario, but my likelihood of getting money into my bank account is a lot higher than it will be for someone who's got capital on a tether exchange or is holding crypto in a wallet

i only have one step that has to work to get my money, and my funds are (allegedly) held in a segregated account at a bank with FDIC insurance. that's definitely not ironclad but i do think my risk is lower

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Wassbix posted:

psst its been a low interest + friendly loaning environment, RE assets are recognized to have actual value and can be used as collateral to borrow as a % of current value. Now add in the a very hearty increase in RE values.

now rub two brain cells and see how the above can result in very generous returns on your starting capital.

This is what you said:

Wassbix posted:

Beyond that it has nothing interesting going for it. If your risk tolerance is so high that you're willing to touch crypto you could easily find financial products/methods to invest in that offer similar returns without dealing with the fraud/scams...For example take the last 5 years in crypto and compare to returns in something like commercial RE it's not even close.

Please quote a number, including all rents + underlying asset appreciation, that you think represents the top achievable ROI for commercial RE. you can use any 5 year stretch in the history of commercial RE. be as generous as you like.

comedyblissoption posted:

Uh lets say someone has $100,000 and turns it into $300,000 on crypto trading. Let's say they cash out $150,000 and they trade some more on the remaining $150,000. It's irrelevant how big they got that $150,000. Maybe they ballooned it enormously or whatever. Then, at the end the market crashes and they only claw back like $10,000 of it while its crashing. They're still a large bag-holder.

$100K -> $160K while up a mil at the top is maybe debatable, but I can see where you're coming from. imo, though, there's an ROI % where the definition gets too stretched. if somebody turns 100k into 10 million and eventually walks away with 5, are those still bags? at some point the peak sort of stops mattering.

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Uranium 235 posted:

i don't think so. i'll definitely be worried in that scenario, but my likelihood of getting money into my bank account is a lot higher than it will be for someone who's got capital on a tether exchange or is holding crypto in a wallet

i only have one step that has to work to get my money, and my funds are (allegedly) held in a segregated account at a bank with FDIC insurance. that's definitely not ironclad but i do think my risk is lower

I'm not really thinking about coinbase (aside from them randomly losing your wire for 3 months lol) but I think the bigger concern is that all existing TA patterns suddenly just die under the weight of a school of whales or a big player's algo deciding that the first sign of a bullish setup = exact time to dump into buys, over and over. the markets are thin enough that when the big crash hits that is pretty likely to happen, though you being profitable from 19k -> 6k is a good sign.

Wassbix
May 24, 2006
Thanks guy!

Adar posted:


Please quote a number, including all rents + underlying asset appreciation, that you think represents the top achievable ROI for commercial RE. you can use any 5 year stretch in the history of commercial RE. be as generous as you like.


If you list your last 5 year transaction history as Wolves of Crypto I'll post a RE investment from the past 5 years for comparison.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Uranium 235 posted:

the risk is relative. trading something much less volatile without margin will obviously be lower risk than trading crypto

*** cryptocurrency

Yes, I am futilely jumping onto the math nerd bandwagon here, partly because I am a math nerd, partly because I have seen actual people suggest that satoshi invented cryptography and I'm hoping that clearly separating the terms will help dispel those notions

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Wassbix posted:

If you list your last 5 year transaction history as Wolves of Crypto I'll post a RE investment from the past 5 years for comparison.

I'm not asking for your personal investment history. What's your idea of the maximum achievable commercial RE ROI over a 5 year window?

e: this is boring and I think I've proven my point, but if that number is four figures, you can PM me and we can discuss further

Adar fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Feb 18, 2018

ynohtna
Feb 16, 2007

backwoods compatible
Illegal Hen

QuarkJets posted:

I have seen actual people suggest that satoshi invented cryptography
loving hell

Pharohman777
Jan 14, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
Only the power of BITCOIN helped the allies crack Germany's enigma machine!

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here

comedyblissoption posted:

They're still a large douche bag

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

QuarkJets posted:

I have seen actual people suggest that satoshi invented cryptography

could we all move on from whether goons or buttcoiners can be more wrong about financial advice and post more poo poo like this for everyone to laugh at

Wassbix
May 24, 2006
Thanks guy!

Adar posted:

I'm not asking for your personal investment history. What's your idea of the maximum achievable commercial RE ROI over a 5 year window?


So you want me make up random numbers to make the highest number possible ??? Cause this is more than easy if someone theoretically perfectly predicted and got out of shale oil regions.

but I'm not doing randomly number crunch for you (I'll still do the comparison)

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

Adar posted:

I'm not really thinking about coinbase (aside from them randomly losing your wire for 3 months lol) but I think the bigger concern is that all existing TA patterns suddenly just die under the weight of a school of whales or a big player's algo deciding that the first sign of a bullish setup = exact time to dump into buys, over and over.
something like this did happen during the downtrend in january. it seems like every bullish breakout was immediately crushed, sometimes with very aggressive selling. bots would stack the ask and market sell. i had to completely shift my trading style compared to what it was in december in the months leading up to it. i would only buy when the RSI on multiple timeframes was deeply oversold and the price had broken through a really significant support level (meaning there had been an abnormally high volume of selling). even then, i would just scale in with partial positions. since the bounce from 6k, i've had to shift again because every dip is bought up rather quickly and we no longer reach those deeply oversold levels

the good thing about day trading and exiting a trade once i've lost a small, pre-determined amount is that i don't end up bag holding and waiting for a bounce to happen so i can cash out. if i'm losing every trade then i just stop trading and reevaluate what i'm doing. it will only take one good trade to recoup my losses

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

Adar posted:

could we all move on from whether goons or buttcoiners can be more wrong about financial advice and post more poo poo like this for everyone to laugh at
i'm down with that.

we got here because i said that i think TA can work in limited ways in the cryptocurrency (that's for you quarkjets) markets. i didn't really want to get into a days-long argument where i'm explaining things in so much detail

honestly i probably should have known better, i had previously avoided talking about TA because i was pretty sure it would lead to a derail like this

now we have people asking for wallets and portfolio histories, next it will be bank statements and tax returns. kind of ridiculous tbh

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 01:57 on Feb 18, 2018

zedprime
Jun 9, 2007

yospos

Uranium 235 posted:

it will only take one good trade to recoup my losses
Martingaling is only a sure thing if and only if your capital source is infinite.

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Uranium 235 posted:

something like this did happen during the downtrend in january. it seems like every bullish breakout was immediately crushed, sometimes with very aggressive selling. bots would stack the ask and market sell. i had to completely shift my trading style compared to what it was in december in the months leading up to it. i would only buy when the RSI on multiple timeframes was deeply oversold and the price had broken through a really significant support level (meaning there had been an abnormally high volume of selling). even then, i would just scale in with partial positions. since the bounce from 6k, i've had to shift again because every dip is bought up rather quickly and we no longer reach those deeply oversold levels

the good thing about day trading and exiting a trade once i've lost a small, pre-determined amount is that i don't end up bag holding and waiting for a bounce to happen so i can cash out. if i'm losing every trade then i just stop trading and reevaluate what i'm doing. it will only take one good trade to recoup my losses

I think the last part is the dangerous part. at the bottom of that drop I think the market had the most buy action in 2+ years, but if that volume had not come in it could easily still be freefalling. at some point it's all but inevitable that we'll have the exact same graph and that massive wave of buys will just fail to appear and everybody will get crushed nonstop for months, especially if you're unable to short.

there are some decentralized exchanges with leverage built in coming up, so I guess that'll be an option for the even more special snowflakes who think normal crypto variance is easy mode

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

zedprime posted:

Martingaling is only a sure thing if and only if your capital source is infinite.
not really relevant though

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Uranium 235 posted:

i'm down with that.

we got here because i said that i think TA can work in limited ways in the cryptocurrency (that's for you quarkjets) markets. i didn't really want to get into a days-long argument where i'm explaining things in so much detail

honestly i probably should have known better, i had previously avoided talking about TA because i was pretty sure it would lead to a derail like this

now we have people asking for wallets and portfolio histories, next it will be bank statements and tax returns. kind of ridiculous tbh

:hf:

Sentient Data
Aug 31, 2011

My molecule scrambler ray will disintegrate your armor with one blow!
So can we make a mod rule that any brags of making money from touching the poop is an instant sixer at bare minimum or something? This isn't bitcointalk or whatever, this is a place to laugh at a market that has more swings than a 40s dance hall

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

Can we stop with the victim blaming? self.CoinBase

Submitted 1 day ago by iamwooodyharrelson

Does this grind anyone else's gears too?

All over this sub, we see people looking for Coinbase support because of a pretty dire situation, and some smart rear end decides that is the right time to impart their financial wisdom, about how that user shouldn't have bought crypto because they're in a tight spot financially?

The thing is, if someone gets charged 50x their deposit, or has money removed from their account without their permission, and this ends up having a knock on effect on that persons essential payments - guess what.. that isn't their fault. Even you thought it was, how anyone thinks this a good time to pass judgement is beyond me.

To the wise asses: We get it, you practise good financial behaviour, don't live paycheck to paycheck and have only ever made sound investments. I'm happy for you. The thing is, people posting here don't give a poo poo about that right now, and are simply looking to get money that was taken without their consent back.

I'm sure there must be a sub out there for judging poor people, but this isn't it.

Rant over, as you were.

tl;dr Remember the human



[–]Toofast4yall 16 points 1 day ago
I had some dumbass PM me telling me I shouldn't have invested more than I can afford to lose. How is that investing when coinbase just takes money from your account that you didn't authorize?

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[–]ch2s -1 points 8 hours ago
It is really unwise to have a bank account with money you can't afford to lose linked to coinbase, obviously.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

it's surprising how many people with coinbase accounts are basically zaurg

Rexxed
May 1, 2010

Dis is amazing!
I gotta try dis!

Sentient Data posted:

So can we make a mod rule that any brags of making money from touching the poop is an instant sixer at bare minimum or something? This isn't bitcointalk or whatever, this is a place to laugh at a market that has more swings than a 40s dance hall

If you ban lying then there'll be a lot less funny posts. We all know nobody's ever made money from touching butts.

gary oldmans diary
Sep 26, 2005
but im up 1000%! and 30% of that is from making smart trades during the period of time when bitcoin went up 1000% for anyone simply holding. let me tell you about my system...

Risc1911
Mar 1, 2016

$25,000.00 Coinbase / GDAX missing wire transfer

25,000.00 missing wire transfer CoinBase / GDAX Its been weeks and my bank verified GDAX / Coinbase received my money and CoinBase has still not responded. Now Coinbase is creating duplicate charges on my account. Coinbase Olga I have provided bank confirmation numbers and all pertinent information to verify this transaction. Please help me get my $25,000.00 back Case # 3632159

At least he did not get charged multiple times... yet.

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

"When the crash comes".... You poor idiots...

I'll tell you when the crash will come: When crypto destroys fiat... THEN you will be the bag holder... idiots...

There Bias Two
Jan 13, 2009
I'm not a good person

QuarkJets posted:

it's surprising how many people with coinbase accounts are basically zaurg

Most people are Zaurg.

Wassbix
May 24, 2006
Thanks guy!

There Bias Two posted:

Most people are Zaurg.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

QuarkJets posted:

Hey Coinbase, I invested only what I was willing to lose, about 1600$ of my hard earned part time money flipping burgers at McDonald’s went into the crypto market 4 weeks ago and I saw great results

and then you got greedy and let it ride instead of taking some profits.

COMRADES
Apr 3, 2017

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

QuarkJets posted:


[–]Toofast4yall 16 points 1 day ago
I had some dumbass PM me telling me I shouldn't have invested more than I can afford to lose. How is that investing when coinbase just takes money from your account that you didn't authorize?

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[–]ch2s -1 points 8 hours ago
It is really unwise to have a bank account with money you can't afford to lose linked to coinbase, obviously.

It is unwise to give bank information to shady online merchants dealing in anonymous crypto coins the purpose of which is to enable crime.

:thumbsup:

Uranium 235 posted:

it will only take one good trade to recoup my losses

I don't want to jump down your throat or anything but that sounds like something gamblers say tbh.

COMRADES fucked around with this message at 05:03 on Feb 18, 2018

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

Adar posted:

I think the last part is the dangerous part. at the bottom of that drop I think the market had the most buy action in 2+ years, but if that volume had not come in it could easily still be freefalling. at some point it's all but inevitable that we'll have the exact same graph and that massive wave of buys will just fail to appear and everybody will get crushed nonstop for months, especially if you're unable to short.

there are some decentralized exchanges with leverage built in coming up, so I guess that'll be an option for the even more special snowflakes who think normal crypto variance is easy mode
unless there is widely known fundamental news, like it being proven beyond reasonable doubt that tether is a fraud and that the people holding it are utterly hosed*, then there will be traders waiting to buy in deeply oversold conditions. i like the risk:reward for those oversold trades. the risk is a lot higher than i'm usually comfortable with but the reward is also much higher. i keep a lot of cash until i see the buy volume come in, but i do build a position by scaling in once i believe the sell volume is peaking

* i'm sure there are a lot of posters here who believe this is already the case

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 05:24 on Feb 18, 2018

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

COMRADES posted:

I don't want to jump down your throat or anything but that sounds like something gamblers say tbh.
speculative trading is gambling, or close enough that the distinction doesn't matter much

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

gary oldmans diary posted:

but im up 1000%! and 30% of that is from making smart trades during the period of time when bitcoin went up 1000% for anyone simply holding. let me tell you about my system...
70% in the time that bitcoin went down 50%

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

more people falling for the "send 0.5 eth to this address and i'll send you 1.5 eth back!" scam

VictorianQueerLit
Aug 25, 2017

Uranium 235 posted:

more people falling for the "send 0.5 eth to this address and i'll send you 1.5 eth back!" scam



That is about $3,600 at current prices.

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Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

VictorianQueerLit posted:

That is about $3,600 at current prices.

yeah someone is making a killing with this scam



he got $15k https://etherscan.io/address/0x87dc2b91bd923a9c43047102c671e7cffefb9fab

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